LYONS-THESIS-2021.Pdf

LASTING LEGACIES LOOKING AT THE LONG-TERM IMPACT PRESIDENTIAL POLICIES HAVE ON THE NATIONAL ECONOMY by Michael Lyons A thesis submitted to Johns Hopkins University in conformity with the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts in Government Baltimore, Maryland May 2021 © 2021 Michael Lyons All Rights Reserved Abstract It is clear that presidents, in their unique position as sole leaders of an entire branch of the federal government, have vast powers at their disposal to utilize during their time in office. It is also clear that the occupants of the White House have always kept one eye on the task at hand and another on how they were shaping their own legacy. As voters and scholars continue to find greater reason to recognize the lasting impact of these legacies on the public, a new standard must be developed to evaluate presidential performance in the long-term. This study provides a framework for such an evaluation. This tool, the Framework for Long-term Economic Examination (or FLEX), is used to determine that a president has the power to influence the long-term national economy through the office’s policymaking powers. It also goes further and ranks modern presidents on their success in utilizing these powers to create positive economic change in the long-term. The findings from using FLEX provide a discernable path to move presidential studies forward. It also provides predictions around, and guidance for, the actions future presidents may take in order to have a long-lasting impact on the economy, and, thus, their own legacy. Thesis Advisors: Dr. Kathryn Wagner Hill and Dr. Dorothea Israel Wolfson Thesis Reviewers: Dr. Ryan Eric Emenaker and Dr. Jacob R. Straus ii Preface Forward This thesis is the culmination of the Master of Arts in Government graduate degree at Johns Hopkins University. It represents an original critical and synthetic treatment of a subject within this student’s field of study. It documents research formulated independently and presents its findings in a manner consistent with publications in scholarly journals or within scholarly books. Acknowledgements This thesis would not have been possible without the help and support of many individuals and groups. Special thanks must be given to the faculty of Johns Hopkins University’s Advanced Academic Programs, particularly those within the Government department. Thank you especially to Dr. Sarah O’Byrne, Dr. Blake Ethridge, Dr. Dorothea Wolfson, Dr. Alexander Rosenthal, and Dr. Katheryn Wagner-Hill, for the mentorship and guidance each of them provided on the various installment of this thesis. Finally, I would also like to thank my friends and family who helped support me in numerous ways when thinking about these issues, working on the necessary research, and throughout the long process of putting this all down on paper. Thank you. iii For my wife, Emily, without whom this master’s program, thesis, degree, or wonderful life would have never been possible. Thank you. iv Table of Contents Abstract……………………………………………………………………………….p. ii Forward……………………………………………………………………………….p. iii Acknowledgements…………………………………………………………………..p. iii Dedication…………………………………………………………………………….p. iv List of Tables.…………………………………………………………………….…..p. vi List of Figures………………...……………………………………………………...p. vii Introduction: Moving Targets………………………………………………………p. 1 Chapter I: Looking Forward………………………………………………………...p. 12 Analyzing Presidential Motivations and Incentives to Create Long-Term Economic Policies Chapter II: Limited Power…………………………………………………………..p. 36 Analyzing the Success Rate of Presidential Powers and Policies in the Long-Term Chapter III: Impact Imminent……………………………………………………...p. 80 Analyzing the Impact of Presidential Powers on the Long-Term Economy Conclusion: A Path Forward………………………………………………………...p. 130 Drawing on Our New Knowledge to Understand Future Presidential Policy Decisions and Their Impacts Appendix……………………………………………………………………………..p. 148 Bibliography………………………………………………………………………….p. 159 Curriculum Vitae…………………………………………………............................p. 166 v List of Tables Table 1………………….……………………………………………………………………....…………p. 35 Proposed Policies by U.S. Presidents with Long-term Economic Implications Table 2……………………………….……………………………………………………………………p. 50 Number of Executive Orders Per President Table 3………………………………….……………………………………………………..…………..p. 53 Number of Vetoes Per President Table 4………………………………….…………………………………………………………………p. 56 Table 4: Judicial Appointments Per President Table 5………………………………….…………………………………………..……………………..p. 57 Supreme Court Nominees and Impact Table 6………………………………….…………………………………………..……………………..p. 59 Number of Long-Term Chairmanship Appointments Per President Table 7………………………………….………………………………………………………………....p. 61 Number of U.S. Trade and Investment Treaties Per President Table 8……………………………….…………………………………………………………................p. 66 Presidential Popularity Table 9……………………………….………………………………………………….………………...p. 70 Laws Enacted Under Each President Table 10..…………………………….…………………………………………………………………….p. 72 Hard Power Usage Rankings Table 11..…………………………….…………………………………………………………………….p. 73 Hybrid Power Usage Rankings Table 12..……………………………….………………………………………………………................p. 74 Soft Power Usage Rankings Table 13…..……………………………….………………………………………………….…………...p. 75 Total Use of Powers by President Table 14…..…………………………….………………………………………………………................p. 96 Short-Term Economic Performance for Each President Table 15……..…………………………….……………………………………………………………….p. 102 Long-Term Economic Performance for Each President Table 16……..…………………………….…………………………………………………................…p. 106 Long-Term Policy Use and Long-Term Economic Performance Rankings for Each President Table 17…………………………………………………………………………………………………....p. 127 Long-term Economic Change Across All Presidents Table 18…………………………………………………………………………………………………....p. 142 EOs by President in First 100 Days vi List of Figures Figure 1…………………………………………………………………………………p. 39 Light’s Paradox Figure 2…………………………………………………………………………………p. 87 U.S. GDP Over Time Figure 3…………………………………………………………………………………p. 88 U.S. GDP Per Capita Over Time Figure 4…………………………………………………………………………………p. 89 U.S. Household Wealth Over Time as Measured by Net Worth Figure 5…………………………………………………………………………………p. 90 U.S. Inflation Over Time Figure 6…………………………………………………………………………………p. 91 U.S. Employment Levels Over Time Figure 7…………………………………………………………………………………p. 92 U.S. Trade Levels Over Time Figure 8…………………………………………………………………………………p. 92 U.S. Budget Deficit Over Time Figure 9…………………………………………………………………………………p. 94 U.S. Net Saving and Net Investment as Share of GDP Over Time vii Introduction Moving Targets Analyzing the Impact of Presidential Powers on Innovation and Economic Growth “Ninety-nine percent of failures come from people who make excuses.” -George Washington, First President of the United States of America 1 Shifting Standards In politics, the question “What have you done for me lately?” sits on many voters’ minds during an election cycle. It is the standard that countless Americans have traditionally used to judge and evaluate a presidential candidate’s viability for office, critiquing them on their actions and the conditions of the most recent term in office. Yet modern presidential campaign tactics seems to indicate that American voters and politicians have begun to use a different standard of performance evaluation. For example, following the 2007-2008 housing and financial crisis, a major political topic during the 2012 presidential election centered on which candidate was better able to lead the country out of the continuing recession and back to economic prosperity. Interestingly, while Governor Romney took the traditionalist approach and attempted to attribute the slow economic turnaround to the actions of his incumbent opponent, President Obama and his team decided not only to defend his policies from the previous term, but to also ask that voters look at the economy from a long-term standpoint. A memorable moment during the second debate helps to illustrate this unique strategy. Both candidates were asked to respond to the following question from an audience member: Governor Romney, I am an undecided voter, because I'm disappointed with the lack of progress I've seen in the last four years. However, I do attribute much of America's economic and international problems to the failings and missteps of the Bush administration. Since both you and President Bush are Republicans, I fear a return to the policies of those years should you win this election. What is the biggest difference between you and George W. Bush, and how do you differentiate yourself from George W. Bush?1 1 Commission on Presidential Debates, “October 16, 2012 Debate Transcript.” October 16, 2012, Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY. http://www.debates.org/index.php?page=october-16-2012-the-second-obama- romney-presidential-debate 2 The President answered by saying, “Well, first of all, I think it's important to tell you that we did come in during some tough times…we had been digging our way out of policies that were misplaced.”2 In other words, President Obama blamed the continued economic struggles of the nation not on his own policies, but on the lingering impact of his predecessor’s time in office. He goes even further, claiming that the policies he had put in place just needed more time to reverse these effects, saying “And the plans that I talked about will create even more [jobs].”3 President Obama’ argument is there is a unique standard that must be used to judge presidents’ economic performances:

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