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CFA Institute Research Challenge CFA Institute Research Challenge Hosted by CFA Society Mexico Instituto Tecnólogico Autónomo de México The CFA Institute Research Challenge is a global competition that tests the equity research and valuation, investment report writing, and presentation skills of university students. The following report was submitted by a team of university students as part of this annual educational initiative and should not be considered a professional report. Disclosures: Ownership and material conflicts of interest The author(s), or a member of their household, of this report does not hold a financial interest in the securities of this company. The author(s), or a member of their household, of this report does not know of the existence of any conflicts of interest that might bias the content or publication of this report. Receipt of compensation Compensation of the author(s) of this report is not based on investment banking revenue. Position as an officer or a director The author(s), or a member of their household, does not serve as an officer, director, or advisory board member of the subject company. Market making The author(s) does not act as a market maker in the subject company’s securities. Disclaimer The information set forth herein has been obtained or derived from sources generally available to the public and believed by the author(s) to be reliable, but the author(s) does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy or completeness. The information is not intended to be used as the basis of any investment decisions by any person or entity. This information does not constitute investment advice, nor is it an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. This report should not be considered to be a recommendation by any individual affiliated with CFA Society Mexico, CFA Institute, or the CFA Institute Research Challenge with regard to this company’s stock. 1 BECLE S.A.B DE C.V. Is a Mexican public company founded in 1758 that produces, bottles, trades and distributes alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages in Mexico, United States and internationally. Becle is currently the global leader in tequila in terms of volume share. Investment summary Quick Snapshot We issue a HOLD recommendation with a 2019E Price Target of 30.7, which represents a 4.5% upside to its current price ($29.40 as of October Stock Exchange BMV (Mexico) 15th, 2018). Our valuation is based on two main models: a DCF and a Ticker CUERVO* MM relative valuation with a 70/30 weight respectively. Our recommendation is Industry Beverages (Distillers and Vintners) mainly determined by three key drivers: 1) Becle seems to be fairly priced Recommendation HOLD by the market, which is reinforced by our valuation models. 2) Despite Target Price (MXN) 30.7 (4.5%) high growth and innovation opportunities in the Beverages Industry, Becle Enterprise Value (M) 89,767.35 has not been able to take full advantage of such market conditions. 3) A Beta 0.56 shift towards premiumization promises a higher net margin, however, its Average Daily Volume 371,876 success is yet to be seen taking into consideration potential adverse conditions. Our valuation yields a HOLD recommendation, in line with current market expectations. Becle has been a publicly traded company since February 2017 when its IPO took place. Since then, the stock has seen some volatile sessions and is currently trading 13.5% below its IPO price, which could be indicative that the market is still uncertain about Becle. This might be a part of a learning process from the market about the company. Furthemore, recent news regarding C-level management departures as well as some quarters in which it has missed estimates has raised uncertainty on Becle’s ability to continue growing and gaining market share in the industry. Figure 1 - CUERVO vs. MEXBOL Estimates and Historical Data - Summary Attractive industry, but is it an already lost opportunity for Becle? The spirits beverage industry has been growing in both, sales value and sales volume for the last five years. Tequila & Irish whiskey have been the fastest growing categories within the industry in the U.S, with a CAGR of 6% and 13.5% respectively (according to IWSR figures). However, it appears as if the company has not taken advantage of such benefits. During FY2017 Becle reported a 4.9% volume decline in the United States and Canada segment; a trend that hasn’t changed since then as it reported a decline of -16.9% and -7.0% in 1Q18 and 2Q18 respectively. On the good side, Becle follows a mixed strategy of organic and inorganic growth, which we consider positive in an industry of rapid changing trends and new products constantly entering the market and which could significantly change the trend if done correctly. Figure 2- Football Field, Estimates A shift towards ‘premiumization’ promises a higher margin business. Becle’s management has repeatedly announced its intention to shift a strategy of volume over value around, mainly through the premiumization of its portfolio (Figure 3). Recent acquisitions like the Irish Whisky Bushmills and the Canadian Whiskey Pendleton are strong indicators that the company is in fact moving to a higher margin business. However, it appears as if the market has already priced in this shift, which could be bad news in case the strategy fails or takes longer to materialize. Figure 3- Premiumization Strategy Source: Bloomberg 2 Current Highlights Becle enters into the premium whisky segment in the US and other key markets. Becle enters into the premium whisky segment in the US and other key markets. On February, 2018 Becle completed the acquisition of Pendleton Whisky -one of the leading premium whisky companies in the United States- assets for a total of US $205 million. This purchase included Pendleton Midnight, Pendleton 1910 and Pendleton Directors' Reserve. In considering this strategy and assessing its possible successfulness, Mexican government transition turns out to be critical. New policies adopted by the president elect, may have an important negative impact on luxury and premium segments. Proximo Spirits CEO leaves the company, leaving behind many question marks. Proximo Spirits CEO leaves the company, raisging many question marks. On June, 2018 Proximo Spirits’ (Becle’s subsidiary in the United States) former CEO, Mark Teasdale, departed from the firm to join Bigger & Leith, a New York-based spirits. Becle remains in search for a new CEO, position that has been temporarily taken by Michael Cheek (current member of Becle’s Board of Directors). Such event, together with the departure of the former CFO Daniel Elguea (June 2018 as well), raised a lot of questions regarding Becle’s top management. BUSINESS DESCRIPTION Becle is a Mexico-based company in the beverages industry. The company, formerly known as JB y Compañía S.A. de C.V. , produces, bottles, trades and distributes alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages in Mexico, United States and USA & Canada internationally. In February 2017, Becle did its IPO in the BMV Mexico Stock 31% Exchange raising $912.6 million USD and terminating a 259-year privately held RoW company period. The company has production & bottler facilities in Mexico and 58% Northern Ireland and operates production & bottler facilities in the United States. 11% Mexico In addition, it has a processing plant and farming land for blue agave in Mexico. Geographic and Business Segments Figure 4 - Volume by Region Becle has a portfolio with over 30 brands retailed in more than 90 countries, having the greatest exposure in the United States, Canada and Mexico (Figure 5. Revenue USA & by region). Becle’s business structure is composed of: spirits beverages, whereas 22% most of the net sales are generated by tequila (58%), followed by non-tequila spirits Canada drinks (19%), i.e. rum, irish whiskey & american whiskey, vodka, gin & mezcal, RoW ready-to-drink beverages (12%), and non-alcoholic beverages (12%) - which include 12% Boost and Margarita Mix (Figures 6 and 7). Most of the company’s revenue comes 66% Mexico from the United States & Canada (65%), followed by Mexico (23%) & the rest of the world (12%). Today, the company has over 6,000 employees worldwide. Products Figure 5- Revenue by Region The company’s brands are diversified by segments: (1) spirits beverages which include brands for tequila, rum, Irish whiskey, American whisky & vodka, (2) ready- Jose Cuervo to-drink beverages and (3) non-alcoholic beverages. Revenue is mainly generated by 12% tequila brands Jose Cuervo, 1800, Centenario & Maestro Dobel. Each spirit beverage Other tequila is catalogued into standard, premium, super-premium, ultra-premium and prestige 10% 36% segments depending on its production process and price per case (9 lt), the company Other spirits has products over all the segments (Appendix 2). Depending on the region where products are sold, sales exhibit a seasonal behavior. Products sold in the United States 20% show an increase in sales at the beginning of May until July, meanwhile products sold Ready to drink in Mexico exhibit an increase in sales just before Independence Day (September) until 22% December. Non-alcoholic beverages Figure 6 - Product Distribution 3 Distribution Network Becle’s buyers include hypermarkets, large retailers & self-service chains. To reach the whole range of clients, the company needs a strong and developed network, therefore an important success factor for the company’s continuous growth has been its global distribution network. Products are mainly distributed by wholesalers and independent stores around the world; including restaurants, hotels, supermarkets, groceries and tax-free stores. In Mexico, the main distribution center is located in Guadalajara, Jalisco and concentrates 60% of the volume of total sales (Source: Company data).
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