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2012 IRP Filing 103112.Pdf Entergy Arkansas, Inc. APSC FILED Time: 10/31/2012 2:33:12 PM: Recvd 10/31/2012 2:30:51 PM: Docket 07-016-U-Doc. 24 425 West Capitol Avenue P. O. Box 551 Little Rock, AR 72203-0551 Tel 501 377 4457 Fax 501 377 4415 Steven K. Strickland Vice President Regulatory Affairs October 31, 2012 Ms. Kristi Rhude Arkansas Public Service Commission P. O. Box 400 1000 Center Street Little Rock, AR 72203 Re: APSC Docket No. 07-016-U Entergy Arkansas, Inc. 2012 Integrated Resource Plan Dear Ms. Rhude: Consistent with Section 6 of Attachment 1 to the Arkansas Public Service Commission (“Commission”) Order No. 6 – Docket No. 06-028-R Resource Planning Guidelines for Electric Utilities, Entergy Arkansas, Inc. (“EAI”) submits the following: a) its 2012 Integrated Resource Plan (the “IRP”); b) the Stakeholder Report that was prepared in accordance with Section 4.8 of the Commission’s Resource Planning Guidelines; c) the presentations made by EAI in connection with its July 31, 2012 Stakeholder Meeting; and d) EAI’s responses to Stakeholder’s questions at the Stakeholder Meeting. Should you have any questions concerning this filing, please call me at (501) 377-4457 or Laura Landreaux at (501) 377-5876. Sincerely, /s/ Steven K. Strickland SS Attachments c: All Parties of Record APSC FILED Time: 10/31/2012 2:33:12 PM: Recvd 10/31/2012 2:30:51 PM: Docket 07-016-U-Doc. 24 Entergy Arkansas, Inc. 2012 Integrated Resource Plan October 31, 2012 APSC FILED Time: 10/31/2012 2:33:12 PM: Recvd 10/31/2012 2:30:51 PM: Docket 07-016-U-Doc. 24 CONTENTS Introduction ............................................................................................................................................ 4 Resource Planning Objectives .................................................................................................................. 4 Regulatory Context for EAI’s IRP .............................................................................................................. 4 Planning with Uncertainty ....................................................................................................................... 5 Study Period ........................................................................................................................................ 5 Entergy System Agreement ................................................................................................................. 6 EAI’s Operations in MISO or as a Stand-Alone Entity ............................................................................ 6 EAI’s Demand-Side Management Initiatives ......................................................................................... 7 EAI’s Efforts to Secure Additional Capacity Resources .......................................................................... 8 Future Availability of Existing Generating Units .................................................................................... 9 IRP ANALYSIS ......................................................................................................................................... 11 Technology Assessment..................................................................................................................... 11 Natural Gas Price Forecast ................................................................................................................. 13 CO2 Assumptions ............................................................................................................................... 14 Load Forecast .................................................................................................................................... 14 Market Modeling ............................................................................................................................... 15 Scenarios ........................................................................................................................................... 16 Capacity Expansion Modeling ............................................................................................................ 17 Portfolio Design & Risk Assessment ................................................................................................... 18 Summary of Findings from Analysis ................................................................................................... 21 Action Plan ............................................................................................................................................ 21 Entergy Arkansas, Inc. 2012 Integrated Resource Plan Page 2 APSC FILED Time: 10/31/2012 2:33:12 PM: Recvd 10/31/2012 2:30:51 PM: Docket 07-016-U-Doc. 24 LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Technology Cost Comparisons .................................................................................................. 11 Table 2: Henry Hub Natural Gas Prices ................................................................................................... 13 Table 3: Summary of Key Scenario Assumptions .................................................................................... 17 Table 4: Results of Capacity Expansion Modeling ................................................................................... 17 Table 5: NPV of Forward Revenue Requirements by Scenario ................................................................ 19 Table 6: Portfolio Ranking by Scenario ................................................................................................... 19 Table 7: NPV of Forward Revenue Requirements across Scenarios......................................................... 20 Table 8: Portfolio Ranking across Scenarios ........................................................................................... 20 Table 9: NPV of Forward Revenue Requirements relative to Highest Ranked Portfolio ........................... 20 Table 10: NPV of Forward Revenue Requirements relative to Highest Ranked Portfolio across Scenarios .............................................................................................................................................................. 20 Table 11: IRP Load and Capability .......................................................................................................... 21 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Load Forecast Scenarios ........................................................................................................ 15 LIST of APPENDICES Appendix A: EAI Resource Planning Objectives ...................................................................................... 25 Appendix B: EAI Generation Resources .................................................................................................. 29 Appendix C: Scope of AUORA Modeling ................................................................................................. 31 Entergy Arkansas, Inc. 2012 Integrated Resource Plan Page 3 APSC FILED Time: 10/31/2012 2:33:12 PM: Recvd 10/31/2012 2:30:51 PM: Docket 07-016-U-Doc. 24 INTRODUCTION This document describes Entergy Arkansas, Inc.’s (“EAI”) long-term integrated resource plan (“IRP”) for the period 2014 – 2023. This IRP represents a significant step, as it is the first IRP prepared for EAI operations outside of the Entergy System Agreement. EAI’s process for preparing this IRP reflects the changes to EAI’s planning processes resulting from its planning outside of the Entergy System Agreement. Whereas planning under the System Agreement was conducted with a view to the needs of all of the Entergy Operating Companies as a whole, EAI’s development of the 2012 IRP focuses solely on the needs of EAI and its customers. Whereas an IRP developed under the System Agreement would be developed and reviewed under the guidance and direction of the Operating Committee, EAI’s 2012 IRP was (i) developed by EAI’s Resource Planning and Operations Staff, (ii) reviewed by EAI’s Resource Planning and Operations Committee (“RPOC”), and (iii) approved by EAI’s President and Chief Executive Officer, Hugh T. McDonald. RESOURCE PLANNING OBJECTIVES EAI has established a set of resource planning objectives to guide its development of this IRP. The planning objectives focus on four key areas: costs, risk, reliability, and sustainability. EAI’s resource planning objectives are shown in Appendix A. These planning objectives were recommended by the RPOC and approved by EAI President and Chief Executive Officer, Hugh T. McDonald on May 16, 2012. REGULATORY CONTEXT FOR EAI’S IRP In 2006, the Arkansas Public Service Commission (“APSC”) adopted an IRP rule requiring APSC- jurisdictional utilities to file an IRP at least every three years.1 The rule required that utilities would immediately file their then-current resource plans. EAI met that obligation by filing the Strategic Supply Resource Plan (“SSRP”) that was in place at that time. EAI’s next resource plan was filed in 2009, and included the results and report of a stakeholder input process conducted for EAI’s 2009 IRP, as well as a more comprehensive considerations of demand-side management (“DSM”) and load control options. For EAI’s 2012 IRP, EAI implemented a modified approach to its stakeholder process from that taken for EAI’s 2009 IRP. The modified approach sought to incorporate EAI’s experience in its stakeholder process conducted for its Energy Efficiency (“EE”) portfolio. This modified 1 Order No. 6 in APSC Docket 06-028-R Entergy Arkansas, Inc. 2012 Integrated Resource Plan Page 4 APSC FILED Time: 10/31/2012 2:33:12 PM:
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