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October 7, 2014 October 7, 2014 KOREA Company News & Analysis Major Indices Close Chg Chg (%) Kangwon Land (035250/Buy/TP: W45,000) Raise TP KOSPI 1,972.91 4.52 0.23 Surge in Chinese tourists expected for winter ski season KOSPI 200 249.93 0.74 0.30 KOSDAQ 562.82 -3.45 -0.61 SK Hynix (000660/Buy/TP: W57,000) Don’t overreact to SEC’s plant announcement Turnover ('000 shares, Wbn) Volume Value Orion (001800/Buy/TP: W1,050,000) KOSPI 324,339 3,778 A China consumer play that deserves renewed attention KOSPI 200 66,422 2,810 KOSDAQ 331,627 2,040 Koh Young Technology (098460/Not Rated) Market Cap (Wbn) More than meets the eye Value KOSPI 1,177,791 KOSDAQ 138,428 KOSPI Turnover (Wbn) Buy Sell Net Foreign 1,061 1,226 -166 Institutional 886 757 129 Retail 1,800 1,777 23 KOSDAQ Turnover (Wbn) Buy Sell Net Foreign 136 145 -9 Institutional 103 109 -6 Retail 1,798 1,781 17 Program Buy / Sell (Wbn) Buy Sell Net KOSPI 787 785 2 KOSDAQ 24 25 0 Advances & Declines Advances Declines Unchanged KOSPI 382 447 59 KOSDAQ 412 536 61 KOSPI Top 5 Most Active Stocks by Value (Wbn) Price (W) Chg (W) Value Hynix 44,700 0 248 Samsung Electronics 1,162,000 11,000 224 KODEX LEVERAGE 10,705 25 197 Hyundai Motor 182,000 -2,500 111 Hyundai Merchant Marine 11,750 850 111 KOSDAQ Top 5 Most Active Stocks by Value (Wbn) Price (W) Chg (W) Value Celltrion 43,700 -4,850 100 Com2us 159,900 -7,100 79 Daum Communications 156,800 2,000 59 SundayToz 22,000 400 59 LiHOM-CUCHEN 14,450 -900 48 Note: As of October 7, 2014 This document is a summary of a report prepared by Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. (“Daewoo”) and published on our website. Please review the compliance notices contained in the original report. Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled in good faith from sources deemed to be reliable. However, the information has not been independently verified. Daewoo makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the fairness, accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this document. Daewoo accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any loss arising from the use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Information and opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is for informational purposes only. It is not and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to purchase or sell any securities or other financial instruments. This document may not be reproduced, further distributed or published in whole or in part for any purpose. Kangwon Land (035250 KS) Surge in Chinese tourists expected for winter ski season Entertainment 3Q preview: VIP normalization to drive solid growth Following capacity additions, Kangwon Land’s casino earnings indicators (table turnover, Earnings Preview drop per head, etc.) have continuously improved, with the exception of the number of October 7, 2014 general visitors, which has been falling due to an admissions price hike (from W5,000 to W7,500). For 3Q, we project Kangwon Land’s overall revenue to come in at W408bn (+9% YoY), (Maintain) Buy driven by a 10% YoY rise in casino revenue . We estimate 3Q operating profit rose 13.5% YoY. We believe the solid growth in 3Q was led by VIP revenue, which appears to be Target Price (12M, W) 45,000 normalizing after several setbacks (celebrity gambling scandals and audits of weekday visits by public officials). Share Price (10/06/14, W) 34,000 In 4Q13, the casino operator recorded a contingent liability of W54.2bn related to a Expected Return 32% lawsuit filed by its labor union calling for fixed bonuses and allowances to be recognized as ordinary wages. A court ruling is expected in mid-October; a verdict favorable to Kangwon Land would allow the firm to write back the liability, providing an additional OP (14F, Wbn) 522 lift to profit. Consensus OP (14F, Wbn) 509 Number of Chinese visitors still small, but growing fast EPS Growth (14F, %) 32.6 Market EPS Growth (14F, %) 7.9 The casino’s number of Chinese visitors, while still small, is rapidly rising . The monthly P/E (14F, x) 18.4 average number of foreign visitors to the casino jumped from 800 in 2013 to 1,200- Market P/E (14F, x) 11.9 1,300 in 3Q14, and to 1,600 more recently. We attribute the sharp growth to 1) the KOSPI 1,968.39 April introduction of a 72-hour visa waiver program for Chinese tourists entering through Yangyang International Airport in Kangwon province, and 2) the extension of Market Cap (Wbn) 7,274 the visa-free stay in July to 120 hours. During China’s recent “Golden Week,” about Shares Outstanding (mn) 214 5,000 Chinese tourists are estimated to have arrived via Yangyang Airport. Free Float (%) 58.4 Foreign Ownership (%) 26.8 Kangwon Land currently operates eight foreigner-only mass tables and is undertaking a Beta (12M) 0.64 number of activities to attract Chinese tourists, including signing a memorandum of 52-Week Low 28,000 understanding (MOU) with China’s largest travel agency, CTS. 52-Week High 36,500 We believe the upcoming winter ski season—the first since the visa-free program was (%)(%)(%) 1M1M1M 6M6M6M 12M12M12M adopted at the Yangyang Airport—will bring a meaningful increase in Chinese visitors. Absolute -4.0 10.7 19.9 Relative 0.0 11.9 21.7 Maintain Buy and Raise TP to W45,000 140 Kangwon Land KOSPI Out of the casino’s 200 tables, the 33 tables that remain idle because of a shortage of 130 dealers are expected to become operational in 1Q15, p ointing to more room for growth. 120 110 We maintain Buy on Kangwon Land and raise our target price to W45,000 (from 100 W40,000). Our target price is based on our 2015F DPS of W1,150, divided by a dividend 90 yield of 2.5%, the stock’s median dividend yield during the past decade. 80 9.13 1.14 5.14 9.14 Daewoo Securities CCo.,o., Ltd. FY (Dec.) 12/11 12/12 12/13 12/14F 12/15F 12/16F Revenue (Wbn) 1,266 1,296 1,361 1,508 1,631 1,729 [Internet/Game/Entertainment] OP (Wbn) 490 405 388 522 579 620 Chang-kwean Kim OP margin (%) 38.7 31.3 28.5 34.6 35.5 35.9 +822-768-4321 NP (Wbn) 381 306 298 395 460 502 [email protected] EPS (W) 1,782 1,431 1,391 1,844 2,152 2,347 ROE (%) 17.5 13.2 12.2 14.9 15.9 15.9 Jeong-yeob Park +822-768-4124 P/E (x) 15.3 20.4 22.2 18.4 15.8 14.5 [email protected] P/B (x) 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.1 Notes: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including t he U.S. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT. SK Hynix (000660 KS/Buy) Don’t overreact to SEC’s plant announcement Technology SEC unveils plan to invest W15.6tr in new chip plant by 2017 DRAM overcapacity worries are overblown: 1) SEC has not yet decided what it will News Comment produce at the new facility, and 2) production is not expected to begin until 2H17 October 7, 2014 Maintain Buy and TP of W57,000 on SK Hynix; Buy on dips Daewoo Securities CCo.,o., Ltd. What’s new: SEC unveils plan to invest W15.6tr in new chip plant by 2017 [Semiconductor] On October 6 th , Samsung Electronics (SEC) announced plans to build a new W15.6tr chip manufacturing plant in the Pyeongtaek industrial complex by 2017. The company will make Will Cho +822-768-4306 the investment more than a year earlier than originally planned, which we believe was a [email protected] response not only to growing chip demand, but also to government policies to spur investment. The plant is expected to break ground in 1H15 and commence production in Joon-ho Jang +822-768-3241 2H17. Neither the type of chips to be produced at the new plant nor its capacity has yet been [email protected] determined. We expect these decisions to be made after 2H15. Our view: DRAM overcapacity worries overblown SK Hynix shares plunged 5.1% on the day of SEC’s announcement. The news sparked concerns that DRAM chip makers, led by SEC, will resume their investment cycles, and that the subsequent rise in capacity will push down prices. However, we believe worries over DRAM overcapacity are overblown. First, SEC has not yet decided what types of chips it will produce at the new line. Second, the production schedule (2H17) suggests SEC does not plan to aggressively ramp up DRAM capacity, but is rather making more of a medium- to long-term move to prepare for increasing demand. As evidence, we note the measured pace at which SEC has been converting its new S3 line (Line 17) to DRAM production. We believe SEC’s focus is not to aggressively expand market share, but to maximize profits by taking a more flexible approach to the use of its production lines.
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