January 15, 2013
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January 15, 2013 KOREA Company News & Analysis Major Indices Close Chg Chg (%) Kangwon Land (Buy/TP: W37,000) KOSPI 1,983.74 -23.30 -1.16 New capacity, new demand KOSPI 200 261.43 -3.37 -1.27 KOSDAQ 508.02 -5.42 -1.06 Sector News & Analysis Turnover ('000 shares, Wbn) Machinery (Neutral) Volume Value KOSPI 542,341 4,376 Excellent sales continue KOSPI 200 128,478 3,403 KOSDAQ 489,904 1,848 Market Cap (Wbn) Value KOSPI 1,146,701 KOSDAQ 111,459 KOSPI Turnover (Wbn) Buy Sell Net Foreign 1,088 1,318 -230 Institutional 988 939 49 Retail 2,279 2,095 184 KOSDAQ Turnover (Wbn) Buy Sell Net Foreign 75 79 -4 Institutional 64 84 -20 Retail 1,703 1,681 22 Program Buy / Sell (Wbn) Buy Sell Net KOSPI 742 1,010 -268 KOSDAQ 17 18 -1 Advances & Declines Advances Declines Unchanged KOSPI 264 538 88 KOSDAQ 293 626 78 KOSPI Top 5 Most Active Stocks by Value (Wbn) Price (W) Chg (W) Value KODEX LEVERAGE 12,765 -285 377 Samsung Electronics 1,512,000 -40,000 325 Hynix 25,950 -1,000 176 KODEX INVERSE 7,440 85 174 Hyundai Motor 209,000 0 122 KOSDAQ Top 5 Most Active Stocks by Value (Wbn) Price (W) Chg (W) Value AHNLAB 51,100 6,300 101 Hicel 3,340 -460 49 SDN 1,670 80 35 Solco Biomedical 1,060 136 26 Interflex 45,350 -3,350 25 Note: As of January 15, 2013 This document is a summary of a report prepared by Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. („Daewoo‰) and published on our website. Please review the compliance notices contained in the original report. Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled in good faith from sources deemed to be reliable. However, the information has not been independently verified. Daewoo makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the fairness, accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this document. Daewoo accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any loss arising from the use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Information and opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is for informational purposes only. It is not and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to purchase or sell any securities or other financial instruments. This document may not be reproduced, further distributed or published in whole or in part for any purpose. Company January 15, 2013 Entertainment Kangwon Land (035250 KS) Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. Chang-kwean Kim New capacity, new demand +822-768-4321 [email protected] Capacity expansion expected to drive strong earnings After our visit to Kangwon Land, we believe the companyÊs expanding casino capacity will generate stronger-than-expected earnings in 2013. 1) We expect Kangwon Land to open its new casino earlier than market forecasts (June-July); we project it will start operating table games in April, and slot machines in June. Thus, we believe the expansion will start to boost earnings one quarter Buy (Maintain) earlier than the market expects. Target Price (12M, W) 37,000 2) We believe the number of customers will jump sharper than market forecasts Share Price (01/14/13, W) 30,000 (10%-30%) after the new facility opens. We believe a number of gamers might have Expected Return (%) 23.3 stopped visiting Kangwon LandÊs facilities due to space limitations (confirmed after EPS Growth (13F, %) 23.3 Market EPS Growth (13F, %) 20.1 seeing how fully occupied the companyÊs casino tables were during our visit). P/E (13F, x) 16.3 3) We expect expansion costs to be minimal. We estimate expansion-related annual Market P/E (13F, x) 9.0 KOSPI 2,007.04 fixed costs at only W15-20bn (taking out personnel expenses). We estimate the Market Cap (Wbn) 6,418 companyÊs budgets for new facilities and slot machines at ~W150bn. Shares Outstanding (mn) 214 4) We do not expect higher taxes at this time. For now, Kangwon Land is subject to Avg Trading Volume (60D, '000) 500 Avg Trading Value (60D, Wbn) 14 three taxes besides corporate tax: ① taxes for a tourism promotions and Dividend Yield (13F, %) 3.2 development fund, ② taxes for a fund for abandoned mines, and ③ an excise tax. Free Float (%) 52.1 Rates for these taxes were decided in 2012. Beginning in 2013, an additional tax for 52-Week Low (W) 22,300 gambling-addiction prevention will go into effect (0.35% of casino revenues for 52-Week High (W) 31,900 Kangwon). This tax was enacted in November 2012. Beta (12M, Daily Rate of Return) 0.23 Price Return Volatility (12M Daily, %, SD) 1.9 5) We do not expect additional government restrictions on the number of casino Foreign Ownership (%) 32.7 tables for now. Revisions to related laws will take time, and will have to be justified. Major Shareholder(s) Mine Reclamation Corp et al. (36.27%) In conclusion, we believe Kangwon Land is expanding capacity faster than expected. Gangwondo Development Corp. (6.35%) We expect this expansion will lead to strong top-line growth and limited expenses. Treasury Stock (5.04%) Of note, long-term regulatory risks are the nature of the gambling industry. We Price Performance expect Kangwon LandÊs shares will soon gain stronger-than-expected momentum (%) 1M 6M 12M from capacity expansion. Absolute 1.4 23.2 13.4 Relative 0.8 12.5 6.4 Share price FY Revenues OP OP Margin NP EPS EBITDA FCF ROE P/E P/B EV/EBITDA 120 KOSPI (Wbn) (Wbn) (%) (Wbn) (Won) (Wbn) (Wbn) (%) (X) (X) (X) 110 12/10 1,313 564 43.0 434 2,031 631 219 21.7 13.8 2.7 7.9 100 12/11 1,264 501 39.7 393 1,839 566 237 17.9 14.8 2.4 8.4 90 12/12F 1,300 416 32.0 319 1,493 477 209 13.6 19.6 2.4 11.6 80 12/13F 1,522 501 32.9 394 1,840 570 314 15.6 16.3 2.3 9.7 70 12/14F 1,675 553 33.0 441 2,063 628 339 16.0 14.6 2.1 8.6 1/12 5/12 9/12 1/13 Note: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates This document is a summary of a report prepared by Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. („Daewoo‰) and published on our website. Please review the compliance notices contained in the original report. Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled in good faith from sources deemed to be reliable. However, the information has not been independently verified. Daewoo makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the fairness, accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this document. Daewoo accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any loss arising from the use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Information and opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is for informational purposes only. It is not and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to purchase or sell any securities or other financial instruments. This document may not be reproduced, further distributed or published in whole or in part for any purpose. Industry January 15, 2013 Neutral Machinery Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. Ki-jong Sung Excellent sales continue +822-768-3263 [email protected] 4Q preview: Disappointing earnings, but solid fundamentals Ryan Kang +822-768-3065 We expect 4Q earnings at both TK Corp. and SungKwang Bend to slightly miss [email protected] market expectations due to won appreciation against the US dollar, and delays in shipments. For both companies, more than 50% of revenues come from exports, while raw materials imports account for 40% of total raw materials purchased, which represents 40% of revenues. We thus estimate each companyÊs net F/X exposure (in US dollars) at around 35% (50% - 40% x 40%) of revenues. We expect a decrease in the W/US$ rate (-4.2% QoQ) will hurt the earnings of fittings companies. Additionally, heavy snow in Busan delayed SungKwang BendÊs shipments of completed products; however, we do not anticipate this will hurt the companyÊs fundamentals, as we expect the delayed shipments will be recognized in 1Q13 earnings. Catalysts: Excellent sales continue TK Corp.Ês and SungKwang BendÊs share prices dropped recently due to concerns over tepid 4Q earnings. These corrections provide an excellent buying opportunity, however, as we believe each companyÊs fundamentals remain solid. TK Corp. and SungKwang Bend are taking steady, robust new orders and have secured order backlogs of greater than six months. We expect significant earnings in 2013, as raw material prices are falling, and both companies have improved their product mixes. Also, TK Corp. and SungKwang Bend have improved their brand awareness, and their major competitors in Southern Europe are faring poorly. We project both companies to post rapid M/S growth, thanks to increased investments, and more diversified client bases. Both companies are successfully adapting to changes in the international business environment for industrial plants (including power, gas, and offshore plants). We project both companies to show an excellent combination of earnings and growth despite depressed petrochemical demand, thanks to increasing demand for power generation, gas, and offshore plants. Valuation: Strong potential for growth, attractive valuation We maintain our Buy recommendation and target price of W30,000 on SungKwang Bend.