Seasonal Price and Production Influences in the Industry

Supply/Production Information The broiler chicken supply chain is highly coordinated, with Overview scheduled production cycles to meet retail marketing campaigns. As little as eight weeks can elapse from the time an egg is hatched production in the United States is until the day the chicken is harvested and served to the ultimate comprised primarily of producers contracting consumer. Once a hen enters the supply flock at approx- with a vertically integrated firm to raise poultry. imately 24 to 25 weeks of age, the hen will lay approximately five Contract broiler chicken and turkey production fertilized eggs weekly until approximately 70 weeks of age. Eggs differs from egg production because contract are collected from contract growers’ farms and set in vertically producers provide labor, utilities, management integrated firm-owned incubators for the 21 day incubation pe- and the buildings to raise poultry while the ver- riod. Once an egg hatches, the young broiler chicken is placed on tically integrated firm provides all other inputs a contract grower’s farm for the grow-out phase, which can last – namely the birds, feed, medication and techni- from five to nine weeks but on average is seven weeks in length. cal assistance. In instances where are Broiler are then collected from contract growers’ farms, produced on independently owned farms, the harvested, processed and sent to retail distribution channels. If producers are responsible for providing all nec- necessary, frozen whole chicken may be placed into cold storage essary inputs and make all marketing decisions. for a year, while frozen parts may be stored for nine months. In the broiler industry, contract producers’ The monthly Chicken and Eggs report from USDA’s National exposure to price risk is minimized, but grow- Agricultural Statistics Service is the most comprehensive USDA ers are exposed to production (poor poultry report on the size of the breeding flock (hatchery supply) in the performance and decreased placements) and table egg and broiler chicken industries. USDA makes efforts to revenue risk. Since poultry is produced primar- collect information from all known , but the informa- ily in contract growing arrangements, there are tion collected may not reflect the entire broiler industry. This few spot (cash) markets in which poultry is report contains information on the number of eggs laid during the sold at the farm level, like is done with cattle or month, average number of layers on hand for the egg and broiler hog production. The minimal number of spot industries during the month and estimated cumulative potential markets limits the pricing information available replacements for future months. The report primarily includes to producers and those interested in the broiler information on U.S. placements of young females into the U.S. industry, and information related to the volume broiler breeding flock, but there are some categories that reflect of poultry production also is somewhat lim- production occurring in the United States but intended for place- ited when compared to other major livestock ment in other countries. industries. The Chickens and Eggs report also includes the number of Although the majority of broiler production pullet chicks hatched each month intended for placement in the in the United States is on a contract basis, the United States. This provides the earliest glimpse into the size U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agri- of the breeding flock six months into the future. Pullets are the cultural Statistics Service and Agricultural Mar- young females that become the breeding flock after reaching keting Service regularly release information to sexual maturity at approximately 24 to 25 weeks of age. Once a assist in decision making by stakeholders in the broiler pullet reaches sexual maturity and begins laying eggs, the livestock and poultry industries. The reliability of number of suitable eggs produced for hatching is approximately this information is variable since not all vertical- 165 eggs per layer (breeder hen). A broiler breeder hen is laying a ly integrated firms voluntarily provide informa- fertilized egg approximately five times a week. For a pullet to be tion. As with most USDA data, information is ready to produce eggs for the beginning of the peak production subject to revision on a periodic basis, and many season in May, that female must be hatched in August of the previ- USDA reports are based on voluntary reporting. ous year. This allows for its first offspring to be hatched in April This publication discusses the data provided by and reach market weight as early as May. branches of USDA and its limitations, as well as background information on some relationships Pullets begin to lay broiler hatching eggs at roughly six months within the data that is publicly available for the of age and are kept in the breeding flock until approximately 15 broiler chicken industry. months of age. Cumulative potential placements contained in the Chickens and Eggs report provides an indication of the size of the broiler breeding flock based on pullet chicks hatched. Although not every pullet intended to enter the breeding flock does, these estimates also provide an indication of potential expansion in the broiler industry breeding flock. Figure 1 illustrates the number of pullets that are between seven and 15 months of age that may be placed in the broiler breeding flock. Increases (or decreases) 1 in the number of pullets available to enter the breeding are declining, which is later confirmed by the monthly Chickens flock may suggest expansion (or contraction) in the broiler and Eggs report through the number of broiler-type layers and chicken industry. Figure 1 depicts the increased placements broiler-type eggs hatched. Data for each of the 19 states is pub- of pullets that would be of age to enter the broiler breed- lished for a six-week period since data for each state is subject ing flock during 2010 and 2011, as well as the contraction to revision. Annual revisions are released only at the aggregate during 2012 because of poor economic conditions for the U.S. level. broiler industry. Figures 3 and 4 illustrate seasonal hatching patterns for U.S. and Louisiana broiler-type chicks, respectively. Unlike broiler- Figure 1. Cumulative potential broiler pullet type chicks hatched nationally, Louisiana does not see the placements decline in the number of chicks hatched in the fourth quarter of each year. This reflects Cumulative Potential Broiler Type Pullet Placements, 7-15 Months the needs of vertically inte- Earlier grated firms in the state for a constant supply of chickens 65 throughout the year and the 65

) time for those chickens to s

n 64

o reach slaughter weight. The i l l i 64 decline in the minimum index ( M

s 63 2010

t for Louisiana broiler-type e l l 63 u 2011 chicks hatched to 70 percent P

f of the annual average reflects o 62 2012 r

e the temporary closure of the b 62 2006-10 Average m

u Farmerville facility in 2009. 61 N 61 60 Once chicks are placed with contract growers, it takes five and a half to eight weeks Data source: USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service, Compiled by for the birds to reach market LMIC weight. This allows contract growers to raise four to five and a half broiler flocks per year. The final weight at slaughter var- The total number of broiler hens in the broiler ies by each complex of the vertically integrated firm because hatchery supply flock is reported as the quantity of certain vertically integrated firm complexes are raising birds for layers on the first day of the month and the average for a specific market or customer (rotisserie bird versus further the month. Size of the broiler hatchery flock provides processing for the quick service market). As a result, there is an important indication on the realization of expansion more variation in the final weights of birds than the cattle or plans that vertically integrated firms may be undertaking hog industries. A vertically integrated firm may have a contract that is first reflected in the cumulative potential broiler- with a quick service restaurant and may decrease final weight type pullet placements. As Figure 2 illustrates, the of the broiler to coincide with a marketing campaign by that number of broiler-type hatching layers (breeding flock) restaurant. This type of marketing agreement illustrates the seasonally increases during the first and second quarter of each calendar year. The number of broiler laying hens Figure 2. Seasonal index for U.S. broiler-type hatching retained in the breeding flock decreases in the third layers, 2002-2011. quarter because less production is needed in subsequent months. U.S. Broiler-type Hatching Layers

The weekly Broiler Hatchery report pro- 1.040 vides information on the number of broiler- 1.030 type eggs set in hatcheries and the number 1.020

of broiler-type chicks placed for production x 1.010 Average Index 1 e in 19 selected states and the U.S. total. d n 1.000

I Max. Index Information included in this report lags by 0.990 Min. Index one week to provide vertically integrated 0.980 firms a chance to collect and submit data to 0.970 the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service. Because this report is weekly, it 0.960 provides the first indication that placements Data source: USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service, Compiled by LMIC 1The 19 selected states account for approximately 97 percent of the broilers produced annually. The selected states are Alabama, , California, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Missouri, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia and West Virginia. Totals for the states of California, Missouri, Tennessee and West Virginia are aggregated. 2 Figure 3. Seasonal index for U.S. broiler-type Another important piece to understanding chicks hatched, 2002-2011. the broiler industry is exports. U.S. consumer tastes and preferences are for white meat U.S. Broiler-Type Chicks Hatched because of its lean nature and associated health benefits. Chicken breasts are the most impor- 1.080 tant cut for the domestic U.S. market, and prof- 1.060 itability for the U.S. broiler industry is tied to its 1.040 movement. A significant portion of the broiler 1.020 cut-out is dark meat, however, and it sells at a

x 1.000 Average Index e heavy discount compared to white meat due d n I 0.980 Max. Index to U.S. consumer preferences. The dark meat 0.960 Min. Index is preferred in many other countries, and the 0.940 ability to export dark meat to those countries 0.920 is crucial to vertically integrated firm’s profit- 0.900 ability. USDA’s Economic Research Service is the agency that reports monthly export carcass weight data for the broiler industry by applying Data source: USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service, Compiled by LMIC coefficients to the data on a product weight basis that are compiled by USDA’s Foreign Ag- Figure 4. Seasonal index for Louisiana broiler-type ricultural Service. Export data has a two-month chicks hatched, 2003-2011. lag before being published, so, for example, the January data is not published until March. Louisiana Broiler-Type Chicks Hatched The USDA National Agricultural Statistics 1.200 Service’s Cold Storage monthly report provides a breakdown of various frozen chicken cuts in 1.100 warehouses in various regions of the United States. The report captures product for future 1.000 x Average Index sales, including frozen chicken bound for export e d

n markets (if stored for more than 30 days). I Max. Index 0.900 Levels of dark meat items such as wings, thighs Min. Index and paws kept in cold storage can provide early 0.800 indications of export strength or weakness. The amount of breast meat in cold storage is 0.700 an important benchmark of the strength of the domestic market. Stocks of breast meat in Data source: USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service, Compiled by LMIC cold storage typically build up during the fourth quarter of each calendar year and begin to be coordination between vertically integrated firms and food distributors that drawn down during the first part of each year. often occurs and begins well in advance of when the marketing campaign Increases in stocks outside of these time peri- transpires. ods can signify broiler production is increasing Weekly estimated slaughter is published by USDA’s Agricultural Market- faster than the ability of the market to absorb ing Service in the report titled Weekly Estimated Slaughter of U.S. Broilers/ increases. Fryers and Fowl, which is published every Wednesday. This report provides an estimate of available broilers for slaughter each week and contains a pro- jection for birds available for slaughter during the following week. Because this report represents an estimate of available broilers for slaughter, it is Figure 5. Seasonal index of U.S. young not as accurate as the Weekly Poultry Slaughtered Under Federal Inspec- chicken slaughter, 2002-2011. tion, which contains preliminary figures from the previous week on the number slaughtered, aver- U.S. Young Chicken Production age weight, dressing percentage and the ready-to- cook weight of all broilers slaughtered. The aver- 1.150 age weight listed for young chickens (broilers) in 1.100 the Weekly Poultry Slaughtered Under Federal Inspection publication masks the variation in bird 1.050 weights that are being produced for different Young Chicken Production 1.000 markets. Broilers typically weigh between 4 and Max. Index 9 pounds at slaughter. Variation in broiler weights 0.950 Min. Index is captured in the USDA Agricultural Market- ing Service’s Weekly Fast Food Report and the 0.900 Weekly Poultry Slaughter Report. Figure 5 illus- 0.850 trates that U.S. young (broiler) chicken slaughter is greatest in the late second quarter to the first part of the third quarter of each calendar year. Data source: USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service, Compiled by LMIC 3 Figure 6. Seasonal price index for the 12 city Northeast composite Pricing Information broiler price, 2002-2011. Due to the vertically integrated structure in the poultry industry, there is no public cut- Seasonal Price Index 12 City Northeast out pricing information like that for other live- stock sectors. The first level of available pricing Composite information for broiler chickens is at the 1.150 wholesale level. The USDA Agricultural Mar- 1.100 keting Service’s Broiler Market News Report is published three times a week and provides 1.050

x Average Index e pricing information for national and major d 1.000 n regional markets. Prices are reported for the I Max. Index 0.950 major chicken cuts, including boneless/skinless Min. Index breast, tenderloins, leg quarters and wings, as 0.900 well as other types of poultry (turkeys, hens 0.850 and fryers) for the regional markets. One of two major composite bird prices is the Geor- gia FOB (free on board) dock price reported Data source: USDA Agricultural Marketing Service, Compiled by LMIC weekly by USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service in the Broiler Market News Report. Figure 7. Seasonal price index for Northeast boneless/skinless breast The quoted price for Georgia dock broilers prices, 2002-2011. is for 2.5 to 3 pound birds, which are smaller than the average broiler. Summaries of other major broiler-related USDA reports (includ- Seasonal Price Index Northeast ing Broiler Hatchery and Estimated Slaughter Boneless/Skinless Breast under Federal Inspection) also are included in 1.500 the Broiler Market News Report. Individual 1.400 reports contained in the Broiler Market News 1.300 Report also are available through USDA’s 1.200

x Average Index Agricultural Marketing Service. e d 1.100 n

I Max. Index A second important wholesale composite 1.000 Min. Index broiler price is the 12 city average published 0.900 weekly in the USDA Agricultural Marketing 0.800 Service’s report Weekly Final Broiler/Fryer. 0.700 The 12 cities are primarily located in the northeastern United States but include other major markets such as Detroit, Denver, Los Data source: USDA Agricultural Marketing Service, Compiled by LMIC Angeles and San Francisco. Daily and weekly prices are available for the Northeast, South- Figure 8. Seasonal price index for northeast leg quarter prices, ern, Midwestern and Western regions for 2002-2011. whole birds and broiler parts. Prices also are available for selected cities such as Chicago Seasonal Price Index Northeast Leg Quarter and Los Angeles and states such as Georgia, North Carolina and Arkansas. 1.500 1.400 Wholesale prices for cuts of chicken follow 1.300 seasonal patterns. The prices for primary cuts 1.200 (leg quarters and breasts) and the composite x 1.100 Average Index e price (Georgia FOB or the 12 city average) d n

I 1.000 Max. Index peak in the late second quarter to the third 0.900 quarter. The exception is the seasonal price Min. Index index2 for whole wings that typically peaks 0.800 in the first quarter, due to their popularity 0.700 among consumers during important sporting 0.600 events (college football bowls, Super Bowl and March Madness). Data source: USDA Agricultural Marketing Service, Compiled by LMIC

2An index is a percentage of the annual average calculated by using a centered moving average technique. For example, a value of 0.96 for October in the 12 city composite prices suggests that price is 4 percent below the annual average. 4

Figure 9. Seasonal price index for Northeast whole wing prices, 2002-2011. Conclusions This publication described the major public sources of information available to Seasonal Price Index Northeast Whole Wings help understand the supply factors affect- 1.400 ing the U.S. broiler chicken industry, which is almost completely vertically integrated. 1.300 Subscription-based information from private 1.200 companies is available, but USDA agencies

x Average Index regularly provide information on the size of e

d 1.100 n

I Max. Index the broiler-type breeding flocks, as well as 1.000 Min. Index broiler meat production, in addition to pricing information for broiler meat. The U.S. broiler 0.900 industry is heavily reliant on export markets 0.800 to absorb dark meat associated with chicken production because U.S. consumers prefer white meat. Although the poultry industry has Data source: USDA Agricultural Marketing Service, Compiled by LMIC the shortest production cycle from the point of increasing the number of available breeding animals until the chickens reach the final con- sumer, it still takes about a year for increases (or decreases) in supply to be fully felt in the marketplace and that is partially why chicken will remain relatively cheaper than pork or beef in the near future. Links to Major Publicly Available Reports: Broiler Hatchery report, USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service: http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1010

Broiler Market News Report, USDA Agricultural Marketing Service: http://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/pytbroilerfryer.pdf

Chicken and Eggs report, USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service: http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1028

Livestock and Meat Trade Data, USDA Economic Research Service: http://ers.usda.gov/data-products/livestock-meat-international-trade-data.aspx

Weekly Estimated Slaughter of U.S. Broilers/Fryers and Fowl, USDA Agricultural Marketing Service: http://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/nw_py016.txt

Weekly Fast Food Report, USDA Agricultural Marketing Service: http://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/pywfastfood.pdf

Weekly Final Broiler/Fryer, USDA Agricultural Marketing Service3: http://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/nw_py034.txt

Weekly National Whole Broiler Fryer Report, USDA AMS: http://www.ams.usda.gov/AMSv1.0/PYMNReportWholeBroilerFryer

Weekly Poultry Slaughtered Under Federal Inspection, USDA Agricultural Marketing Service: http://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/nw_py017.txt

3Report discontinued at end of 2012, but historical information is still available. Weighted average prices and volumes now included in Weekly National Whole Broiler Fryer Report. 5 Authors J. Ross Pruitt, Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness, LSU AgCenter Theresia K. Lavergne, Professor, Department of Animal Sciences, LSU AgCenter Visit our website: www.LSUAgCenter.com

Louisiana State University Agricultural Center William B. Richardson, Chancellor Louisiana Agricultural Experiment Station John S. Russin, Vice Chancellor and Director Louisiana Cooperative Extension Service Paul D. Coreil, Vice Chancellor and Director Pub. 3244 Online Only 01/13 The LSU AgCenter is a statewide campus of the LSU System and provides equal opportunities in programs and employment. 6