TURKANA COUNTY 2020 SHORT RAINS FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY ASSESSMENT REPORT

A Joint Report by the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG)1 and Turkana County Steering Group

February 2021

1 Mosioma Dennis Nyabochoa (NDMA) and Turkana Technical County Steering Group

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Food and nutrition security assessment is a multi-agency and multi-sector bi-annual exercise conducted by representatives from the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG) whose membership includes both government and non-state actors. The 2020 short rains food and nutrition security assessment in the county was carried out from 18th to 29th January 2021 and covered three main livelihood zones in the county namely: Fisheries, Agro-Pastoral and Pastoral. The main aim was to conduct an objective, evidence-based and transparent food security situation analysis following the performance of the 2020 short rains while factoring the cumulative effect of the two previous seasons and consequently providing recommendations for possible response options across the various livelihood sectors. The onset of the 2020 short rains season was late during the second dekad of October as opposed to the first dekad normally. Rainfall experienced was remarkably below normal, unevenly distributed in space with a poor temporal distribution. The area under maize production was lower than the respective long-term average and hence the corresponding projected production is anticipated to be lower than the long-term average by over 90 percent due to crop failure, fall army worm infestation and seed inadequacy. Maize and sorghum stocks held by various entities such as farmers, traders, millers and National and Cereals Produce Board (NCPB) were below average. For instance, maize stocks held by farmers accounted for only 21 percent of the long-term average. On the other hand, the body condition of all livestock species was fair and on a deteriorating trend across all the livelihood zones but poor in some sections of the Pastoral and Fisheries livelihood zones owing to in availability of forage. Milk production hence consumption was below normal across all the livelihood zones and averaged one litre per household per day for households within Agro-Pastoral and Pastoral sites along the county borders such as Lorogon, Nakwamoru, Katilu, Lorengipi, Lokichoggio, Kibish, Todonyang, Loyapat, Letea, Urum, and Nakitong’o where livestock have migrated to in search of forage and water. Prevailing milk prices were higher than the long-term average in all the livelihood zones with a litre for instance in the Fisheries zone being sold at Ksh. 90 compared to Ksh. 60 normally while in the Pastoral zone it was higher than the long-term average by 33 percent. Return trekking distances to water points from grazing sites across all the livelihood zones were above the normal range and thus averaged five kilometres. Average water consumption per person per day was 10, 15 and 10 litres against a normal of 20, 30 and 20 litres for the Pastoral, Agro- pastoral and Fisheries livelihood zones accordingly. The market price of a kilogram of maize was Ksh. 66 representing 87 percent of the long-term average price for the period. A medium sized goat was selling at Ksh 2,520, the price was lower than the long-term average by 15 percent. The reported Terms of Trade (ToTs) were not favourable in comparison to a similar period the previous year when households acquired 12 kilogrammes more from sale of a goat. Deterioration in the food consumption pattern in relation to January 2020 was noted as evidenced by the reduced food consumption score of 28 as at January 2021. Proportion of the population categorized as having a poor, borderline and acceptable Food Consumption Score was 17.6, 56.2 and 26.2 percent in that order. Noteworthy, during the OND 2020 season an increase in the proportion of population falling under the poor FCS category especially in the Pastoral and Fisheries livelihood zones was recorded. Despite, the Reduced Coping Strategy Index (rCSI) not shifting significantly from the one recorded for the same period during the previous year, it was typically high (16.6). In addition, proportion of children aged five years and below who were moderately malnourished based on Mid Upper Arm Circumference of 115-124mm was 6.1 percent and despite being at par with the seasonal range, a worsening trend was noted since October 2020. Therefore, the overall integrated food security phase classification for the county is ‘Crisis’ (IPC Phase III). i

TABLE OF CONTENT 1.0. INTRODUCTION...... 1 1.1. County Background...... 1 1.2. Methodology and Approach ...... 1 2.0 DRIVERS OF FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY IN THE COUNTY ...... 2 2.1. Rainfall Performance...... 2 2.2. Insecurity/Conflict ...... 3 2.3. COVID-19 Pandemic ...... 3 2.4. Other Shocks and Hazards ...... 4 3.0 IMPACT OF DRIVERS ON FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY ...... 5 3.1. Availability ...... 5 3.1.1. Crop Production ...... 5 3.1.2. Livestock Production ...... 8 3.1.3. Impact on availability ...... 12 3.2. Access...... 12 3.2.1. Markets Operations ...... 12 3.2.2. Terms of Trade ...... 14 3.2.3. Income Sources ...... 15 3.2.4. Water Access and Availability (Including Cost and Consumption) ...... 15 3.2.5. Food Consumption ...... 18 3.2.6. Coping Strategy ...... 19 3.3 Utilization ...... 19 3.3.1. Morbidity and Mortality Patterns...... 19 3.3.2. Immunization and Vitamin A supplementation ...... 20 3.3.3. Nutrition Status and Dietary Diversity ...... 21 3.4 Trends of Key Food Security Indicators ...... 22 4.0 CROSS-CUTTING ISSUES ...... 23 4.1 Education ...... 23 4.2. Inter Sectoral Links ...... 25 5.0 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS ...... 26 5.1. Assumptions ...... 26 5.2. Food Security Outlook for February to April 2021...... 27 5.3. Food Security Outlook for May to July 2021 ...... 27 6.0 CONCLUSIONS AND INTERVENTIONS ...... 27 6.1 Conclusion ...... 27 6.1.1 Phase Classification ...... 27 6.1.2 Summary of Findings ...... Error! Bookmark not defined. 6.1.3 Sub-County Ranking ...... 28 6.2 Ongoing Interventions ...... 29 6.2.1 Food Interventions ...... 29 6.2.2 Non-Food Interventions ...... 30 6.3 Recommended Interventions ...... 33 6.3.1 Food Interventions ...... 33 6.3.2 Non-Food Interventions ...... 34

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1.0. INTRODUCTION 1.1. County Background Turkana County is located in the North-Western part of Kenya and borders Baringo County to the South, Marsabit County to the East, Samburu County to the South East and West Pokot County to the South West. The county also borders three countries namely; Uganda to the West, Ethiopia to the North East and Sudan to the North West. The county covers an approximate area of 77,000 square kilometres (Km2) with a population of 926,976 people {448,868 females, 478,087 males (KNBS, 2019)}. Administratively, the county is divided into seven Sub counties namely: Turkana North, Turkana West, Turkana Central, Turkana East, Turkana South, Kibish and Loima. The county has four main Figure 1: Proportion of Population by Livelihood Zone livelihood zones including Pastoral all species, Agro-pastoral, Fisheries and Formal employment with population proportion of 60, 20, 12 and eight percent accordingly (Figure 1). For the Pastoral livelihood zone, the main sources of cash income include livestock production, petty trade and hunting/gathering with a contribution of 91 percent, three percent, and two percent respectively. Food crop production, livestock production and firewood collection/charcoal burning contribute to cash income by 40 percent, 25 percent, and 10 percent in the Agro-pastoral livelihood zone. Along the Fisheries livelihood zone, the contribution of fishing, livestock production and casual waged labour to cash income averages 54 percent, 18 percent, and 10 percent in that order. Additionally, the poverty levels across all the livelihood zones remain very high with the proportion of individuals below the poverty line for instance in Turkana north (highest) and Turkana central (lowest) Sub counties being 91.7 percent and 77.5 percent of the respective population. 1.2. Methodology and Approach The 2020 short rains assessment adopted a multi-sectoral and multi-agency approach composed of representatives from the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG); the County Steering Group (CSG) and non-state actors such as Concern Worldwide, Save the Children, World Vision, Mercy Corps and Kenya Redcross. The assessment was conducted between 18th and 29th January 2021 covering all the livelihood zones and the seven Sub counties. The main objective of the assessment was to conduct an objective, evidence-based and transparent food and nutrition security situation analysis following the October to December (OND 2020) rainfall season in Turkana County, taking into consideration the cumulative effect of previous seasons and consequently providing appropriate sector specific recommendations for possible response options based on the situation analysis.

The assessment started with a briefing of the CSG on the objectives of the assessment followed by sector briefs and a review of the completed sector checklists (quantitative data) that had been administered a week earlier by the technical team that had been mandated to conduct the assessment. Sites to be visited for primary data collection were selected 1

purposively based on vulnerability criteria while also factoring representativeness in terms of livelihood zones as a unit of analysis. Primary data was collected from the community through semi-structured focus group discussions (comprising both gender), key informant interviews and market interviews in the three main livelihood zones in strict compliance with the COVID-19 Ministry of Health (MoH) protocols/guidelines.

The formal employment livelihood zone was excluded in the assessment. Along the Pastoral livelihood zone, key informant and focus group discussions were held at Napusmoru, Lokwomosing, Kangakipur, Namuruputh, Kaeris and Lomil, in the Fisheries livelihood zone discussions were conducted in Kalimapus, Nachukui and Kerio while for the Agro-Pastoral livelihood zone Kangalita and Nakwamoru were some of the sampled sites. Visual inspection technique was also applied along the transect drive with a total of eleven market interviews being conducted across the three livelihood zones.

Additional secondary data including satellite rainfall estimates, routine health and nutrition data from the Kenya Health Information Systems (KHIS), prices, Mid Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) data and the National Drought Management Authority (NDMA) bulletins among others was availed to the KFSSG team. Based on livelihood zone as the unit of analysis, the primary data was then collated, analyzed and triangulated with the secondary data. Further, integrated food security phase classification (IPC) protocols were followed in the identification of food insecurity causes and severity classification. Preliminary findings of the compiled county food and nutrition security report were later shared during the debriefing CSG held on 28th January, 2021 for adoption as a true reflection of the county food and nutrition security situation. 2.0 DRIVERS OF FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY IN THE COUNTY 2.1. Rainfall Performance Turkana County has a bi-modal rainfall pattern with the long rains being experienced from March to May (MAM) and short rains from October to December (OND). However, some parts of Turkana West, South and Loima do experience rainfall in June, July and August (JJA season). The long rains is the major season in the county and thus all the farmers constituting 20 percent of the population rely on it for crop production while the short rains is significant for pastoralists in terms of promoting forage regeneration after the July to September dry spell and sustaining forage availability across the January to March dry spell. The rainfall onset was late during the second dekad of October 2020 as opposed to the first dekad of the same month normally. The sites that recorded near to above average rainfall at the start of the second dekad of October included the Agro-Pastoral areas of Turkana South such as Lobokat, Kaputir and Katilu wards, Select Pastoral sites of Loima Sub-county like Lokiriama/Lorengipi ward, Pastoral areas of Turkana West and North including Letea, Lokichoggio, Kalobeyei and Kibish wards. On the contrary, most sites along the Fisheries and Pastoral livelihood zones within the plains including Kalapata, Lokichar, Kerio, Kang’atotha, Kalokol, 2

Figure 2: Rainfall Performance (% of Normal) Lakezone, Lokori/Kochodin, Katilia, Kaeris, Kaaleng/Kaikor, Kanamkemer, Township, Nakalale, Lopur, Turkwel and Lapur wards received rainfall that was significantly depressed towards the end of the second dekad of October. Consequently, the Eastern side of the county remained considerably dry with a shortened short rains season compared to the Western side that continued receiving rainfall during the first and second dekad of November. In addition, rainfall distribution in time was generally poor during the season and averaged 4-5 wet days in October and 2-3 wet days in November mainly in the aforementioned parts of the county while in space, the distribution was remarkably uneven considering almost three quarters of the county experienced erratic rainfall whose temporal distribution was 1-2 days. The Eastern, Southern, Central and some sections in the Northern part of the county experienced below average rainfall that was approximately 51-75 percent of the normal rainfall whereas the Western parts (Turkana West and Loima) recorded 126-140 percent of the normal rainfall for the OND season (Figure 2). Cessation was witnessed during the first dekad of December along the Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral areas bordering West Pokot, Uganda and South Sudan while for the Fisheries and Pastoral areas along the Eastern side of the county it was attained during the third dekad of November as opposed to the third dekad of December normally across the county with dry and hot weather conditions dominating all parts of the county thereafter.

2.2. Insecurity/Conflict Turkana East had a significant number of insecurity incidents involving cattle rustling, frequent attacks and killings by bandits in Kapedo/Napeitom ward. Several households in the volatile disputed regions of Kapedo, Lomelo and Napeitom were faced with remarkable negative food security outcomes and were in need of urgent humanitarian assistance. Businesses had been closed in Kapedo and Lomelo markets and also the main road connecting Marigat-Chemolingot-Kapedo and Lokori-Lomelo-Kepedo was inaccessible due to the ongoing GSU/RDU operations. A total of 10 households had lost their shelter after being torched down by the bandits with one primary school in Kapedo being burnt down too during that arson event. The recent insecurity events in the ward had left scores of people dead including three security personnel. One business premise - a posho mill was equally burnt down and nothing was salvaged. Insecurity cases in other Sub-counties were also reported in Turkana West (Nanam and Lokipoto), Turkana North (Lokichoggio and Todonyang) and Kibish attributed to the Merille and Toposa attacks. Consequently, access to pasture and browse by livestock in Turkana East (Lokori-Kamuge-Napeitom-Lomelo belt) where livestock in Turkana East (Katilia, Lokori/Kochodin) normally migrated to had been remarkably hindered while estimated 10,000 households currently cannot access food through the Lomelo and Kapedo markets since all the businesses in the area have closed down.

2.3. COVID-19 Pandemic The effects of COVID-19 outbreak continued being felt across all levels during the 2020 short rains period with the lifting of the containment measures like unrestricted travel leading to confirmed positive cases spiral in the county and that had a significant negative impact on food security occasioned by diversion of meagre household resources to cater for medical expenses. The county had recorded a caseload of 921 as at 20th January, 2021 mainly in Turkana Central, West, South and North Sub-counties out of 8,282 cumulative tests conducted with a positivity rate of 4.6 percent. The number of farmers who managed to harvest in August and September was low as a result of not planting during the previous season due to seed inadequacy resulting from restriction of movement and curtailing communal land preparation practice as a means of promoting social distancing and that led to 3

a shift in the prices of some essential cereals and pulses. Continued closure of schools during the season exerted more pressure on the available minimal household food stocks with the learners contributing to a faster than normal depletion of those stocks. Across the livestock markets, very few traders from outside the county participated in trading activities and that consequently affected the household purchasing power due to the prevailing low demand that contributed to low livestock prices during the period. The high cost of transportation especially by motor bike riders was a major hindrance towards attaining household dietary diversity since almost five percent of the household proceeds was lost to the operators. 2.4. Other Shocks and Hazards Lake Turkana backflow The rapid surge in Lake Turkana water levels (366.1 meters above sea level) during the OND season attributed to flash floods resulting from heavy rainfall experienced in Southern Ethiopia highlands (River Omo) and Kenya (Rivers Kerio and Turkwel) led to displacement of 2,890 households and loss of livelihoods. The 1.92 meters vertical rise that translated to 800 meters of a flooded shoreline horizontally led to displacement of fishing communities, destruction of beach management unit infrastructure, reduced fish landings and increased post-harvest losses, submerged fish landing sites, loss of property like fishing nets and social amenities and destruction of feeder roads. The most affected areas included: Kalokol ward (Impressa, Natirae, Daraja, Kalimapus, Nariemet), Kang’atotha ward (Longech, Namakoo, Wadach, Akatuman, Lokipetot, Eliye, Namakat, Namukuse), Lakezone ward (Kaito1, Kaito2, Nayanae Esanyanait, Lowarengak, Nachukui, Nariokotome, Kangaki), Kerio ward (Nanyangakipi Abogoret village, Alukat, Ngimuriae, Merer). Consequently, following an assessment conducted in November the estimated losses were in the margin of 255 million Kenya shillings.

Agro-Pastoralist communities in Ngimuriae village lost over 250 acres of rain-fed farms where the communities most reliable livelihood (Sorghum farms) were submerged hence the 480 households currently have no food or alternative livelihood. Fishing activities were also affected by Lake Turkana back flow in Kerio Delta, Lakezone, Kalokol and Kang’atotha since the Lake swelled towards the main land into Prosophis Juliflora bushes thus the Fisherfolks could not access their main fishing grounds thus affecting the main livelihood of approximately 5,000 households. Ngimuriae primary school was totally sub merged with the pupils currently schooling in Namaide primary school causing overcrowding in the school, this has also affected the school feeding programme supported by agencies like Mary’s Meals. Ngimuriae dispensary was also submerged and thus the displaced communities camping in Namaide are currently utilizing Namaide dispensary exerting further pressure on the available minimal resources in the dispensary.

Desert and Tree Locust Invasion The negative impacts of the Tree and Desert Locusts that invaded the County in February 2020 were still evident across most areas with for instance, the long rains harvest in August being remarkably low against the expected production level as a consequence of approximately 9,449 hactares of crop land being invaded. The Desert Locusts decimated large tracks of pasture and browse land (approximately 450,447 hactares) whose recovery was greatly hindered due to the poor performance of the short rains leading to earlier than normal migrations thereby affecting close to 82,000 households. During the period of invasion some locusts died in small water bodies like the commonly used traditional hand dug wells and contaminated them affecting the health status of communities that relied on such water sources. Since the Desert Locusts had invaded most areas, cases of diarrhea even 4

to death of livestock after ingestion of the droppings were reported across the areas of invasion. This reportedly extended to water points when the droppings were carried by runoff water to water sources like the traditional hand dug wells causing stomach diseases to humans and other livestock diseases as for instance reported in Kegorsegol during the community focus group discussion in Lokichar ward.

Drought Following the poor performance of the short rains 2020, a moderate drought had developed across a number of sites in the Fisheries and Pastoral livelihood zones since December and therefore these zones were categorized to be in the ‘Alert phase’ and on a worsening trend. Some of the affected wards included: Kalapata, Lokichar, Lokori/Kochodin, Katilia, Kerio, Kalokol, Kang’atotha, Lakezone, Kaeris, Lapur, Kaaleng/Kaikor, Kanamkemer, Township, Nakalale and Lopur wards. Consequently, estimated 45,000 households were affected with a significant proportion of livestock migrating in search of pasture, browse and water. A negative trend had also been noted with respect to the terms of trade and that had affected the purchasing power of especially pastoralists and subsequently affected food utilization as exemplified by the declining food consumption score (FCS), increasing proportion of households within the poor FCS category and the high reduced coping strategy index (rCSI) depicting household food stress. The malnutrition rates were on the rise following reduced milk consumption coupled with absence of any significant interventions being rolled out to address the deteriorating trend.

Crop failure Along the Agro-Pastoral livelihood zone, massive crop failure (rain-fed) was witnessed during the season and thus household food stocks remained significantly low. Further, as a consequence of the advisory issued by the Water Resources Authority (WRA) with regards to the spillage of Turkwel dam, irrigated agriculture was considerably affected as most of the farmers opted against planting driven by the fear that the crops/farms could be destroyed by the flooding of river Turkwel. In addition, crops planted within a significantly reduced acreage for the short rains season were destroyed by the fall-army worm that remained a major threat to attaining optimal production throughout the season.

3.0 IMPACT OF DRIVERS ON FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY 3.1. Availability 3.1.1. Crop Production Turkana county is mainly dependent on the long rains for crop production, however, a small proportion of the farmers mainly in the Agro- Pastoral livelihood zone grow maize, sorghum, and cowpeas during the short rains season. Noteworthy, the uptake of green grams over the recent past has been high due to its economic value, low water requirements, few pest attacks, more palatable, good performance, good price and easily marketable. Maize is mainly grown in the irrigation schemes while sorghum is mainly rain-fed. The Agro-Pastoralists comprise 20 percent of the county population and mainly practice farming in irrigation schemes along rivers Turkwel and Kerio and some rain-fed areas in the county such as Kalemngorok, Kakong, Letea and Kalobeyei. The short rains season normally contributes up to 30 percent of the total annual crop production but that was not the case during the short rains season of 2020 due to the below normal short rains experienced that led to inadequate and unreliable water availability for crops. Crop production in the Agro-pastoral livelihood zone contributes 60 percent to food and 40 percent to cash income. Whereas Maize and sorghum production is

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largely for household consumption, cowpeas leaves are both sold, and some left for household consumption.

Rain-fed production Despite concerted efforts by the county government and other stakeholders to promote crop production through increased interventions on water harvesting structures and use of mechanical plowing by the department of agriculture and its partners, agricultural crop production that is rainfall dependent was compromised by the late onset of the short rains whose amount was depressed, poorly distributed in time , unevenly distributed in space and erratic in progression across the Agro-Pastoral areas where farming was being practised. Sorghum was the main crop planted under rain-fed agriculture whereas maize farming was practiced in the irrigation schemes. Table 1: Rain-fed Crop Production Crop Area planted Long Term 2020 short rains Long Term Average during 2020 Average area season production during short rains planted during production the short rains season (Ha) the short rains (90 kg bags) season (90 kg bags) season (Ha) Projected Maize 153 948 1,071 19,908 Sorghum 3,229 3,100 27,850 31,000 Cowpeas (Leafy) 10 28 400 1,100

Area under maize production/area planted during the 2020 short rains season was significantly lower than the long-term average area under maize production by 84 percent while that of cowpeas was 65 percent lower than the respective long-term average (Table 1). Seed inadequacy as a result of minimal seed subsidy support during the season, encroachment by Prosophis Juliflora and other invasive plant species, inadequate farm implements and reluctance on the part of farmers to plant due to uncertainty with respect to the performance of the short rains were some of the factors that contributed to the reduced area under maize production during OND 2020 season. The decline in projected production (five percent of LTA for maize) could be attributed to crop failure occasioned by the poor distribution of the short rains, fall armyworm infestation, destruction by elephants in Lobokat, Katilu and Kaputir wards and poor agronomic practices that normally resulted to pre and post-harvest losses. On the other hand, area under sorghum production was slightly higher (by four percent) than the long-term average as a result of the sorghum seeds being available since they were sourced locally, improved security in areas like Nakwamoru and opening up of new lands in rain-fed areas through rain water harvesting technologies and use of mechanized farming by the department of agriculture and its partners but production is projected to be lower than the long-term average by 11 percent due to crop failure resulting from below normal rainfall, destruction by elephants and non-planting in areas like Kerio. Table 2: Irrigated Crop Production Crop Area planted Long Term 2020 short rains Long Term Average during 2020 Average area season production during short rains planted during production the short rains season (Ha) the short rains (90 kg bags) season (90 kg bags) season (Ha) Projected Maize 1,275 1,915 33,748 52,190 Sorghum 1,790 1,688 20,750 19,568 6

Cowpeas (Leafy) 32 56 330 577.8

Irrigated agriculture is mainly practiced along river Turkwel and Kerio. The area planted during the 2020 short rains season was lower than the long-term average area planted for maize and cowpeas. Area cultivated for maize and cowpeas was lower than the long-term average by 33 and 43 percent respectively (Table 2). This was attributed to encroachment by Prosophis Juliflora in the irrigation schemes occasioned by siltation of canals during the 2020 long rains season whose de-silting had not been done as at the onset of the 2020 short rains season. Reduced projected maize production (64 percent of LTA) could be ascribed to inadequate seeds that was a major challenge with farmers and in some areas like Kerio planting did not take place due to low water levels in river Kerio while in Kangalita siltation of canals affected farming activities. Area under sorghum production was higher than the long-term average by six percent as some farmers in irrigation schemes opted to plant sorghum to rely on the rain-fed approach due to siltation of irrigation canals. Area under cowpeas production was lower than normal (57 percent of LTA) due to lack of seeds and some areas like Ngimuriae, Longech, and Katuriosot where large production of cowpeas is done were submerged as a consequence of the back flow of Lake Turkana.

Among the other factors limiting optimal production cited was COVID-19 protocols that limited the interaction between farmers and various stakeholders involved in food security interventions in the county. Therefore, that resulted to scaling down of their operations hence having a negative effect in terms of limited on-farm trainings and other important extension service provision. Poor agronomic practices that resulted to pre and post-harvest losses, pests and diseases specifically fall army worm and desert locusts, low soil fertility/declining soil fertility due to continuous mono-cropping with little soil amendment, salinity of soils, silt deposition in canals thus preventing smooth flow of water and lack of functional demo plots where farmers could pilot modern technologies were some of the other accrued negative effects. Proliferation of nut grass that was labour intensive also increased the production cost and thus was a serious limiting factor during the OND 2020 season. Lastly, the small percentage of the youth who were participating in crop production opted for high value crops like watermelons, tomatoes and leafy vegetables that fetched relatively high prices.

Cereals Stocks Cereal stocks held by farmers and millers across the county were generally below the long- term average as shown in table 3. Maize and sorghum stocks held by farmers across the county were below the long-term average by 79 percent and 66 percent respectively.

Table 3: Commodity Stocks in the County Commodity Maize Rice Sorghum Current LTA Current LTA Current LTA Farmers 1,820 8,857 0 0 3,863 11,500 Traders 10,356 12,500 2,240 6,500 890 500 Millers 0 1,180 0 0 0 40 Food Aid/NCPB 0 2,500 0 500 0 0 Total 12,176 25,037 2,240 7,000 4,753 12,040

The maize stocks held by farmers were from the production in irrigation schemes like Elelea and Katilu. Most of the stocks in the markets were sourced externally (West Pokot, Trans- Nzoia, Uasin Gishu and Uganda). The traders had the highest stocks held while farmers had 7

low stocks as a result of the low production. Generally, the current stocks held by traders for maize, rice and sorghum are below the respective long-term average because most cereals stores had closed due to the difficult economic circumstances occasioned by COVID-19 pandemic that led to even closure of the the Ugandan border. Households with maize stocks are expected to last for less than one month as opposed to two months normally in the rain- fed areas and 1-2 months in the irrigated areas depending on family size and demand from relatives compared to three months normally. No stocks were held by households in the Pastoral and Fisheries livelihood zones that relied entirely on markets. Closure of hotels, restaurant and food kiosk during the lockdown depressed the market for food products.

3.1.2. Livestock Production Livestock keeping remains the main source of income to many Pastoral households in Turkana County. Livestock species kept include; cattle, sheep, goats, camels and donkeys. Majority of households derive their income and livelihoods from the sale of these livestock and also benefit from the consumption of meat, milk and blood. The rainfall received during the months of October, November and December 2020 was below average as it was anticipated based on the forecast by the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD). Some light showers were experienced during the second dekad of October and first dekad of November and had a low impact on the availability of pasture and browse following minimal to no regeneration being witnessed. Pasture and Browse Condition The pasture and browse condition across all livelihood zones was generally fair but on a deteriorating trend (Table 4). However, pasture condition was poor in most parts of the Fisheries livelihood zone and some parts of the Pastoral livelihood zone like Kalapata, Lokori/Kochodin, Katilia, Lokichar, Kaaleng, Kanamkemer,Turkwel and Kaeris wards as a consequence of receiving significantly depressed rainfall. Available browse in the Pastoral and Agro-pastoral areas of Turkana West and Loima is projected to last for two months whereas in Turkana Central, East and some parts of North it is projected to last not more than one month. The short rains of 2020 was remarkably poor compared to the short rains of the previous year (2019) and that had a negative effect on the condition of pasture and browse. Access to pasture and browse was hindered by water availability (water sources were far from grazing areas), insecurity especially in the fall-back areas of Turkana East, Kibish and Turkana West coupled the high prevalence of livestock diseases in some areas where forage was still available. The slow recovery of the forage decimated by the desert locusts earlier in the season during the month of August and accumulation of the droppings in some sites was also a major deterrent to pasture access. Following the dry and hot weather conditions currently dominating most sections of the county, forage condition is projected to deteriorate significantly. Livestock especially in the Agro-pastoral livelihood zone were feeding on crop residues that resulted from crop failure.

Table 4: Pasture and Browse Condition Pasture Browse Livelihood Condition How long to last Condition How long to last zone (Months) (Months) Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Pastoral Fair Good 1 2 Fair Good 2 3 Agro- Fair Good 1 2 Fair Good 2 3 Pastoral

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Fisheries Fair Good 1 2 Fair Good 2 3

During the assessment period, there was no pasture conserved inform of hay in all sites visited but rather most of the available pasture found in dry season grazing areas was planted hay. Pastoralists reported inadequate knowledge on pasture production, conservation and management and the awareness creation on COVID-19 had affected Pastoralist mobility with those migrating opting for areas that were considered safe.

Livestock Productivity Livestock Body Condition The livestock body condition was generally fair but on a deteriorating trend across all the livelihood zones and more so areas along the Fisheries livelihood zone such as Kalimapus and Nachukui (Table 5). The body condition of livestock was equally poor in Pastoral areas like Kangakipur in kalapata ward, Lokori, Napusmoru in Lokichar ward and some parts of Kanamkemer ward. The observed body condition was below the one normally witnessed for the period and that was attributed to the long trekking distance in search of water and forage. Its anticipated that the body condition for all livestock species would deteriorate further as the rangeland conditions worsen with the above normal subsurface temperature. Table 5: Livestock Body Condition Livelihood Cattle Sheep Goat Camel zone Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Pastoral Fair Good Fair Good Fair Good Fair Good Agro- Fair Good Fair Good Fair Good Fair Good Pastoral Fisheries Fair Good Fair Good Fair Good Fair Good

Tropical Livestock Units (TLUs) Among the poor and medium-income households’ categories, the tropical livestock units across the three livelihood zones were below normal (Table 6). Below normal TLUs was as a consequence of the poor performance of the 2020 short rains that led to decreased kidding, lambing and calving rates. In addition, the scenario could also be attributed to the increased frequency of livestock raids especially in the major cross-border areas in all the livelihood zones such as Lobokat, Katilu, Lokichoggio, Kibish, Kapedo/Napeitom, Lokori/Kochodin, Kalobeyei and Lokiriama/Lorengipi wards and no significant improvement is anticipated with the setting in of the dry season. Reversal of the peace gains/dividends previously realized will most likely exert pressure on the livestock productivity since most of the dry season grazing areas remain in accessible due to the high level of insecurity currently being witnessed. The Pastoral and Fisheries areas within the plains where significantly depressed rainfall was experienced are likely to bear the greatest negative impacts since recovery is anticipated to take a long time.

Table 6: Tropical Livestock Units Livelihood zone Poor income households Medium income households

Current Normal Current Normal Pastoral 5 8 8 10 Agro-Pastoral 4 6 8 10 Fisheries 3 4 6 8

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Birth Rates There was a notable decline in the birth rates among all livestock species across most areas especially in the Fisheries and Pastoral livelihood zones where the performance of the short rains was considerably poor. The observed trend in the birth rates could also be attributed to the poor livestock nutrition occasioned by declining household incomes since the outbreak of COVID-19, in availability of water in adequate quantities, increased incidents of livestock disease outbreaks brought about by convergence of livestock in the dry season grazing areas and riverlines and increased return trekking distance in search of forage.

Milk Production, Consumption, and Price Goats and camels are the major milk producers across the three livelihood zones for household consumption and sale. Milk production level was below normal in all the livelihood zones and had declined significantly with respect to the levels reported for the same period the previous year. The recorded production level hence consumption in all the livelihood zones was between 50-100 percent below the long-term average (Table 7). The only sites that reported on milk production were the Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral areas along the county borders like Urum, Katilu, Lokichoggio, Loyapat, Todonyang among others where livestock had migrated to with no single site in the Pastoral and Fisheries livelihood zones areas within the plains reporting on milk production during the community focus group discussions. The observed trend was as a result of the below normal rainfall experienced during the OND 2020 season that impacted negatively on the regeneration of forage and thus affected the body condition of the livestock and the general productivity. Sheep and cattle were the most affected and it was noted that in all the terminal markets within the major urban centres, there were no milk sales and thus residents of these centres were using powdered milk available in the shops. Some few areas in Turkana North like Kaaleng, Kaeris and Lokitaung reported remarkably high prices for fermented milk in the range of KSh. 120 per litre whenever it was availed to the markets by Pastoralists from the border areas of the county. It was also noted that households gave priority to the livestock young ones to drink the available milk as a means of cushioning them and women were the designated livestock managers and therefore led in making decision with regards to milk proceeds. Table 7: Milk Production, Consumption and Pricing Livelihood zone Milk Production Milk Consumption Price (Ksh)/Litre (Litres)/Household (Litres)/Household Current LTA Current LTA Current LTA Pastoral 0-1 2 0 1 80 60 Agro-Pastoral 0-1 2 0 1 60 40 Fisheries 0-0.5 2 0 1 90 60

Migration Migration of livestock was reported during the 2020 short rains season with the major route being that of the largest Turkana community kraals moving to Uganda dry season grazing reserves. Karamojong border route remains the largest and most preffered migration corridor for Turkana livestock as it holds adequate water and forage for large herds of livestock. Livestock from Loima migrated through Namoruputh-Lorengippi-Urum-Lokiriama to Uganda while some moved from Lomil-Loima hills-Eteere to Uganda. Loriu hills in Turkana East, Lokwanamour ranges and Lorionotom in Turkana North were some of the other notable areas where livestock migrated to during the OND 2020 season. Those from the low-lying areas of Turkana North like Kaeris and some parts of Lakezone moved to Todonyang along Lake Turkana despite the area being a conflict hotspot. Migration of livestock from some 10

interior parts of Turkana East such as Katilia and Lokori wards towards the grazing reserves in Kapedo, Napeitom and Lomelo was greatly hampered by insecurity and thus there was a change in the migration patterns towards Kakong, Natot, Eris, Lokitoe, kirion, Kalemngorok, Natooteris, Lokoropus, Kangiregae, Kaekunyuk, Nakabosan, Nabeye, Naragae, Apa lima and Kapel in Turkana South. The witnessed situation was a sharp contrast from the one observed during the previous short rains season given that the migration commenced even earlier than normal. Approximately 50-75 percent of the herd had migrated from the low-lying areas within the plains in search of pasture and browse.

Livestock Diseases and Mortalities The livestock diseases that were reported in all the livelihood zones included Contagious Caprine Pleuro Pneumonia (CCPP), Pestes des Petits Ruminants (PPR), Helminthiasis, Sheep and Goat Pox, Mange, Haemorrhagic septicaemia, Abortions and Anaplasmosis. The prevalence of these diseases especially Contagious Caprine Pleuro Pneumonia and Mange was typically high (Table 8). However, mortality rates remained within the normal range as treatment and targeted vaccination campaigns by the veterinary department of Turkana County Government (TCG) in collaboration with partner agencies was on-going. Notable though was the fact that reduced response activities since the outbreak of COVID-19 and the complex migration patterns or dynamics that increased disease morbidity were some of the factors that advanced the deviation from the normal trends in some areas. Table 8: Livestock Disease Prevalence in Turkana County as at January 2021 Disease % Relative Prevalence %Mortality Shoat Pox 9 3.5 Helminths 8 3.5 CCPP 21.5 11 PPR 14 9.5 Haemmorghic septicaemia 17 9 Trypanosomiasis 11.5 8.5 Mange 23 5.5 Orf 6 3.5 Others 14 4 (Source: Veterinary Department, Turkana County Government)

Water for Livestock The main water sources for livestock in the Pastoral livelihood zone were boreholes, shallow wells and traditional river wells. The trekking return distance to water sources increased in Fisheries and pure Pastoral livelihood zones while the Agro-Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the least and this was attributed to the below normal rainfall received that impacted on recharge and availability of forage in areas adjacent to water facilities. The available water within the open water sources is expected to last for one month as opposed to two months normally. Availability of quality forage within desirable quantities in close proximity to water sources was a major challenge that necessitated livestock to trek for longer distances from grazing sites to watering points. Traditional hand dug wells were being used across most seasonal rivers such as Katapakin (Kerio), Kalobeyei, Tarach, Kawalase, Napasinyang among others although their depth had increased to 2-3 metres from one metre in December. The watering frequency for the small stock averaged three times in a week while that of the cattle was two times in a week with camels accessing water once in a week during the short rains period. Despite the average return trekking distance averaging 4-8 kilometres across all

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livelihood zones, some sites such as Kangakipur, Kaesamalit, Kaakalel, Napusmoru, Kaaleng and Kerio reported elongated distance ranging up to 10-15 kilometres (Table 9).

Table 9: Water for livestock in Turkana County Livelihood Return trekking Expected duration to last Watering frequency zone distances (km) (Months) Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Pastoral 5-8 4 1 2 1-3 times 4-7 times Agro-Pastoral 3-5 5 1 2 1-3 times 5-7 times Fisheries 4-6 3 2 2 1-3 times 5-7 times

3.1.3. Impact on availability The performance of the 2020 short rains season was characterized with a late onset, poor temporal and uneven spatial distribution coupled with significantly below-normal rainfall especially in the Fisheries and some sections of the Pastoral livelihood zone along the Eastern side of the county and that had a negative impact on crop and livestock production. Massive crop failure was witnessed in all the rain-fed areas with the advisory on Turkwel dam spillage also driving farmers practising irrigated agriculture not to plant due to the associated fear of losing their crops to floods. Earlier than normal migrations were witnessed more so from the Fisheries and some sections of the Pastoral livelihood zones along the Eastern wing of the county due to the prevailing poor pasture and browse condition. Consequently, livestock trekked for long distances in search of pasture and that had a negative impact on their body condition hence reduced productivity in terms of the level of milk produced and the market return value hence significantly eroded household purchasing power. The food stocks were considerably low as a result of no supplementation from the short rains season taking place and thus majority of the stocks within markets were sourced externally with the added extra cost of transportation. The rise in the water levels of Lake Turkana not only affected fishing activities but caused significant damage to the infrastructure/equipment and since then recovery has not taken place. The import capacity was equally low following the closure of the Ugandan border and that resulted to high maize prices especially in Loima and Turkana West Sub-counties while the food-aid was significantly low given most of the humanitarian actors had scaled down operations with the government focus equally shifting to containment of COVID-19 pandemic.

3.2. Access 3.2.1. Markets Operations The main markets for both food and livestock are Lodwar, Kakuma, Lokitaung, Turkwel, Lorugum, Lokichar, Kalemngorok, Kalokol, Kainuk, Kerio, and Lokori. There was market closure in Lorengippi and Namuruputh that was occasioned by non-compliance with COVID- 19 protocols put in place by the Ministry of Health (MoH) while in Lomelo and Kapedo, market disruptions attributed to increased incidents of insecurity were reported and that significantly compromised household access to essential food stuffs. The main food items traded included; maize, beans, rice, vegetables, cowpeas leaves, green grams, oil and sugar. There was a notable increase in the prices of some food commodities across all the livelihoods zone as a consequence of the re-introduction of the pre-COVID-19 tax measures previously with some form of relief. Traders hoarding due to expected increase of prices arising from the anticipated rise in transportation cost occasioned by the shift upwards in oil prices yet to be announced by the Energy Regulation Commission (ERC) was a major price driver too. For instance, a litre of cooking oil increased from Ksh. 180 to Ksh. 250 while that of sugar adjusted from Ksh. 100 to Ksh. 130 per kilogram. 12

Market Supplies and Traded Volumes Markets had resumed to normal operations after the lifting of the COVID-19 movement restrictions with the traded volumes especially for livestock that were sourced locally increasing marginally. However, some markets had low volumes as a result of migration in search of forage with those recording high volumes being as a consequence of the re-opening of schools. The Pastoralists sold to raise school fees with the deteriorating body condition forcing others to sell to external traders who had flocked markets in order to recoup some value before the drought situation worsened. Most food items traded such as cereals and pulses were sourced externally from Trans Nzoia and West Pokot counties with imports from Uganda also supplementing the supplies in the market. Notably, vegetables traded in most markets such as Lorugum, Turkwel, Kalemngorok, Kainuk and Lodwar were sourced locally. Market Prices Maize Price According to the NDMA market surveillance data, the average price of a kilogram of maize was Ksh. 66 in January 2021 and despite that price being lower than the long-term average price for the period by 13 percent, it was slightly higher than the one recorded for a similar period during the previos year by four percent (Figure 3). The stabilization in the maize price across the OND season could majorly be ascribed to the good MAM 2020 season in the external sources within Trans Nzoia county that resulted to good harvests leading to a sustained flow into the county. In addition, following the lifting of movement restrictions Figure 3: Average Price of a Kilogram of Maize especially across the border, increased imports were witnessed and that led to a fairly saturated market hence the observed price trend. Notwithstanding the aforementioned price drivers, variation in price was evident across the three livelihood zones based on the market survey conducted in 11 markets during the transect drive. Markets along the Pastoral and Fisheries livelihood zones recorded comparatively higher prices to those in the Agro-Pastoral livelihood zone. For instance, in some parts of Turkana North sub-county such as Kaeris, Lokitaung and Kaikor a kilogram of maize traded at KSh. 100 and that was due to dominance of those markets by specific few traders, high transportation cost occasioned by continued reporting of confirmed positive cases of COVID-19, insecurity and the general inaccessibility of those sites as a result of the poor road infrastructure. Along the Fisheries livelihood zone, the price of maize per kilogram ranged between Ksh. 70 to Ksh. 90 while in the Agro- Pastoral livelihood zone markets like Kalemng’orok, Kainuk, Katilu and Turkwel that were visited a kilogram was trading at Ksh. 60 to Ksh. 70. Noteworthy, the price of maize varied based on the source with a higher preference for maize from external sources as opposed to imports. Following the minimal harvest witnessed internally as a result of some of the crops being destroyed by the Desert Locusts that invaded the county; farmer stocks are expected to deplete faster than normal and thus a price hike across February is forecasted.

Goat Prices

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Based on the NDMA sentinel site market surveillance data, a medium sized goat of two years averagely traded at Ksh. 2,520 during the month of January 2021. The reported price was lower than the long-term average for the period and that recorded for a similar period during the previous year by 15 percent and 20 percent respectively (Figure 4). The deteriorating body condition accelerated by Figure 4: Average Price of a Medium Sized Goat Aged 2 Years browse in availability especially within the plains of the county as a consequence of below normal rainfall during the OND season coupled with below normal soil moisture were the major factors that contributed towards the observed price decline. In addition, absence of significant competition within the markets normally influenced by external traders was also a major price driver during the 2020 short rains season. Following the partial resumption of education in October, panic sales to raise school fees and facilitation of learners to schools also led to the observed trend with the situation being worsened in January 2021 upon resumption of full learning that neccessistated parents to raise more funds to purchase essential learning materials and school uniforms at the same time catering for the lunch needs of their children given a number of schools did not have a functional school meals programme in place due to exhaustion of stocks. The Fisheries livelihood zone reported the lowest price of Ksh. 2,180 while the Agro-pastoral livelihood zone posted the highest price of Ksh. 2,650. 3.2.2. Terms of Trade The terms of trade (ToT) as at January 2021 were comparatively unfavourable to pastoralists in relation to those reported for the same period during the previous year. Consequently, households were only able to access 38 kilograms of maize in January 2021 from proceeds of a medium sized goat compared to the 50 kilograms that they were able to purchase in January 2020 (Figure 5). Generally, a negative trend was noted since August 2020 and that Figure 5: Comparative Terms of Trade in the County was greatly influenced by the declining price of goat at the market as the result of the deteriorating body condition. The assumed negative trend resulted to the terms of trade being at par with the terms of trade for the period as at January 2021 and thus the household purchasing power was fairly compromised given part of the proceeds from goat were utilized as transportation costs. Further, attainment of the desirable household dietary diversity was a challenge as a consequence of the increased number of household members to feed following the continued closure of schools and therefore purchase of cereals was the only priority. The terms of trade is projected to decline further across the February to April dry spell as the hot 14

weather conditions accelerate depletion of browse reserves leading to a poor goat body condition hence significantly reduced returns at the market. Consequently, considerable food gaps will most likely emerge and or be pronounced especially for households in the Pastoral and Fisheries livelihood zones that were affected and continue to experience negative effects of food and nutrition security drivers. 3.2.3. Income Sources The main sources of income at the household level in the county include livestock production, food crop production and fishing activities. Casual waged labour, petty trade and firewood collection/charcoal burning are the other sources of income for some households across all the livelihood zones (Table 10).

Table 10: Main Sources of Cash Income Sources of Income Contribution to Cash Income per Livelihood Zone (%) Pastoral Agro-Pastoral Fisheries Livestock Production 91 25 18 Fishing (Marine or inland) - 1 54 Food Crop Production 1 40 2 Petty Trading 3 3 2 Charcoal Burning 1 10 2 Casual Waged Labour - 3 10

3.2.4. Water Access and Availability (Including Cost and Consumption) Major Water Sources Majority of households relied on boreholes, traditional river wells and shallow wells equipped with a pumping mechanism as their main sources of water during the 2020 short rains season (Figure 6). The recharge capacity in most open water sources such as water pans and rock catchments was low at 30 percent and that was as a result of the below normal rainfall that was experienced during the short rains season. Noteworthy, a number of water points especially in the Pastoral livelihood zone were Figure 6: Water Sources in Turkana County non-functional due to breakdowns occasioned by over-use with the siltation in most water pans being a common phenomenon for most of the sites visited during the transect drive mission. Strategic solarized boreholes were the most concentrated water points during the season due to their reliability in supplying water consistently and at a faster rate (Table 11). Table 11: Concentration at Water Points Most Concentrated Water Points Livelihood Actual Name of the Water Point Normal Current zone No. No. Being Served Served

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Pastoral Katowase (6No. Bhs), Lokichoggio- Water (8Bhs), Kapetadie, 88,300 105,850 Nanam, Katikuri, Tiya, Nasiger, Nabwelpus, Inyangalem, Loturerei, Ewoi Egole, Nachuro, Kalemunyang Natwel, Kangacheria, Namoruakwan, Lokwatubwa, Kalelekol, Nakinyangaa, Locheremeyan, Kekoroeakan, Lokiriama 1, Lokuyen, Nakurio Bhs, Nakitongo, Lokipoto, Nakilekpus, Oropoi, Nagetei, Kimabur, Kasuroi, Karoge, Kaaripun, Lokitaung, Kokuro, Kachoda, Liwan, Kaerislojem, Kanakurdio, Naurendria. Agro- Lochoredome, Napusinyen, Kakong’u, Lomunyenkirion 61,400 72,000 Pastoral Kaakali, Lopur, Lokapel-Arumrum, Juluk, Nachoke, Kaputir and Nakwamoru, Chinese 1 Fisheries Lowarengak, Kataboi, Nachukui, Riokomor 15,000 23,000 The dependency on these sources was noted to be significantly high due to the reduced availability of alternative water sources in some areas occasioned by the poor performance of the short rains, movement to higher grounds following the rise in Lake Turkana water levels, lack of storage facilities and lack of a water pipeline. Pumping system malfunction, high salinity and untimely repair of breakdowns due to delays in procurement of repair materials were some of the factors cited for the non-functionality of some boreholes. The operational capacity of boreholes across the three livelihood zones was 84 percent, that of shallow wells was 71 percent with that of water pans being 52 percent (Table 12).

Table 12: Status of water Sources in Turkana County Ward/ Water No. of No. of Projected Normal % of full Locality of Liveliho Source Normal Current Duration Duration Capacity Non- od zone (Three Operatio Operatio (Operation that Recharge operational major nal nal al water last d by the Water sources) Sources Sources)m in months Rains Sources onths Pastoral Boreholes 562 448 12 12 - Kaaleng, Kaeris, Chibilet, Kangakipur, Lomeleku, Kaesamalit, Loperot, Natorbei, Karoge, Kamarese Shallow 63 59 2 4 50 Kaaleng wells Water 112 95 1-2 2-3 30 Napusmoru Pans Agro- Boreholes 193 164 12 12 - Kanaodon, Pastoral Katilu Primary, Kalemngorok & Lokapel Shallow 135 110 2 2-3 50 Lopur 1&2, wells Nabeye Water 18 11 2 4 30 - pans 16

Fisheries Boreholes 54 30 12 12 - Katiko, Natoo Anam, Nariokotome Lower Shallow 134 105 1 3 50 Kerio wells Water 7 4 1 3 30 Kalimapus Pans

Distance to Water Sources The return distance to water source for household increased during the 2020 short rains season (Table 13). The trekking distance in the Pastoral livelihood zone averaged 4-8 kilometres compared to 3-6 kilometres normally, along the Agro-Pastoral and Fisheries livelihood zones it was 3-6 kilometres and 2-4 kilometres as opposed to 2-3 kilometres and 1- 2 kilometres in that order normally. However, some sites such as Kangikurichana, Kalapata among others reported extremely elongated distances spanning up to 10 kilometres as a consequence of their functional boreholes breaking down. The notable reasons for the observed trend was the poor recharge of alternative water sources such as shallow wells, water pans, rock catchments and erratic water flow patterns through the seasonal rivers in close proximity to households.

Table 13: Distances to Water Sources, Cost and Consumption Livelihood Return Distance Cost of water at Waiting time at Average zone to water for source (Ksh per water source Consumption domestic use (km) 20 litres) (minutes) (litres/person/day ) Normal Current Norma Current Normal Current Norma Current l l Pastoral 3-6 4-8 5 10 30-40 45-60 20 10 Agro- 2-3 3-6 5 5 10-20 20-30 30 15 Pastoral Fisheries 1-2 2-4 5 10 10-20 20-30 20 10

Waiting time at the Source There was a notable increase in the waiting time at water source especially for households that were drawing water from the shallow wells and the traditional river wells across all the livelihood zones. Generally, the waiting time was above the normal time that households spent at the water points. For instance, in some Pastoral areas like Kaesamalit households trekked as far as seven kilometres to access water with existence of Lake Turkana sufficing in minimizing the trekking distance and therefore the waiting time although the water was very saline. Depressed rainfall during the OND 2020 season led to minimal run-off and that greatly affected the recharge of multiple water sources necessistating households to congest around the available few. Consequently, Agro-Pastoral and Fisheries livelihood zones reported an increase in waiting time of almost 50 percent (Table 13). Increased waiting time was also as a result of some of the installed water tanks having been destroyed with minimal water trucking taking place in select areas like Nakukulas.

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Cost of Water The cost of water at the dispensing water kiosks increased by 50 percent in the Fisheries and some sections of the Pastoral livelihood zones and therefore was above the normal cost of five shillings per 20 litre jerrican (Table 13). The change in cost was driven by the increase in demand that consequently meant increased risk of break downs due to over-use hence a justifiable means of cushioning against losses. The cost was significantly high in some sites such as Naduat where gold mining was taking place and therefore water demand from the available few sources was substantially high. For some sites such as Kalokol, the water vendors delivering water to households charged between Ksh.20-30 per 20 litre jerrican depending on the distance covered. Unlike in the past, water charges were being levied in some areas for instance like Nakwamoru where a 20 litre jerrican cost three shillings. The approximate proportion of the population purchasing water was 25 percent and were mainly residing in urban areas across all the livelihood zones.

Water Consumption Variation in the water consumption level was noted in all the livelihood zones. Along the Pastoral and Fisheries livelihood zones the water consumption per person per day was 10 litres compared to 20 litres normally. Inthe Agro-Pastoral livelihood zone water consumption per person averaged 20 litres as opposed to 30 litres normally. The low consumption level during the 2020 short rains season was due to the poor performance of the rainfall that resulted to elongated trekking return distances to water source and therefore households had to use the available water economically with the only priority being cooking and drinking. The level of water consumption was also affected by the reopening of schools as the learners who normally played the role of fetching water were absent from home coupled with the salinity and insecurity in some sites in Turkana East, West and North that limited households from accesing the water sources regularly. 3.2.5. Food Consumption Based on the sampled 270 households under the NDMA surveillance, proportion of the population classified as having a poor, borderline and acceptable food consumption score was 17.6 percent, 56.2 percent and 26.2 percent respectively as at January 2021. There was a general increase in the population categorized as having poor food consumption score from November Figure 7: Proportion of Population in the FCS categories 2020 to January 2021 across the three livelihood zones (Figure 7). Despite the overall food consumption score for the county remaining within the borderline band implying majority of households were consuming staples and vegetables everyday accompanied by oil and pulses a few times in a week, a negative trend was evident with the score declining from 34 in November 2020 to 28 in January 2021. The respective proportions within the various food consumption score categories across the OND 2020 season is as depicted in figure 7.

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Variation in the food consumption score was noted across the three livelihood zones with majority of households with a poor FCS being residents of the Pastoral and Fisheries livelihood zones. For instance, as at January 2021 the proportion of households categorized as having a poor FCS was 30 percent and 13.3 percent in the Fisheries and Pastoral livelihood zones compared to 11.7 percent in the Agro-Pastoral livelihood zone respectively. There was a notable shift in the population from the upper FCS categories to the lower ones (poor) as the season progressed. Reduced household incomes following disruption of livelihood activities by the rise in COVID-19 positive cases, the prevailing drought situation, insecurity witnessed in some sites and the back flow of Lake Turkana were some of the factors that contributed towards the observed negative trend during the OND season in relation to food consumption.

3.2.6. Coping Strategy According to the NDMA surveillance data from nine sentinel sites, reduced coping strategy index (rCSI) for the month of January 2021 was 16.6 compared to 17.0 reported for the same period during the previous year and hence there was no significant variation. However, there was a notable Figure 8: Reduced Coping Strategy Index Trends variation in the coping strategy index across the three livelihood zones with for instance the Pastoral and Fisheries livelihood zones reporting 18.6 percent and 15.1 percent in that order compared to 13.4 percent along the Agro-pastoral livelihood zone (Figure 8). Households were thus having a minimally adequate diet and applying severe consumption based coping strategies more frequently during the OND 2020 season. Proportion of households applying stress consumption based coping strategies across December 2020 and January 2021 was 71.7 and 73.5 percent while those resorting to crisis consumption based coping strategies was 28.3 and 26.5 percent accordingly. Consequently, household’s resident in the Pastoral and Fisheries livelihood zones were highly constrained to accessing food or money to buy food compared to those in the Agro-pastoral livelihood zone where food gaps were not pronounced. The prevalent coping strategies in application during the short rains season included reliance on less preferred/ less expensive food, reduced portion size and borrowing. On the other hand, trends in livelihood coping during the OND season indicated that there was an increase in the proportion of the population that was applying either stress or crisis livelihood based coping strategies from November 2020 to January 2021. Based on the NDMA surveillance data from nine sentinel sites in the county, 35.4 percent and 29.9 percent of the population applied stress and crisis coping strategies respectively during the month of January 2021.

3.3 Utilization 3.3.1. Morbidity and Mortality Patterns 19

According to the NDMA surveillance data from all the livelihood zones for the period July 2020 to January 2021, proportion of children under five years that were moderately malnourished based on mid upper arm circumference (color MUAC) increased gradually from July 2020 to October Morbidity trends For Under-Five 30000 2020 following the setting in of the dry season that resulted to 25000 development of a moderate drought 20000 in the Fisheries livelihood zone (Figure 12). Among the other factors 15000 that were driving the observed trend 10000 included: poor child care practices 5000 occasioned by migration of households in search of forage, reduced milk 0 consumption level (dropped from 2 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec litres to 1 litre), poor dietary diversity 2020 URTI 2020 Diarrhoea 2020 Malaria influenced by the declining ToT (from 2019 URTI 2019 Diarrhoea 2019 Malaria 50 to 43), poor health seeking Figure 9: Morbidity Trends For Under-Fives behaviour prompted by the fear of getting infected with COVID-19 in public places coupled with absence of integrated health outreaches translating to significantly reduced provision of essential nutrition services especially in the malnutrition hotspots within the hard to reach areas. The onset of the short rains in October led to stabilization of the milk consumption level and the terms of trade owing to the regeneration of some browse with the initiated outreaches albeit minimal playing a critical role in the delivery of health and nutrition services to select few hotspots. However, cessation of rainfall during the first dekad of December led to development of a moderate drought in the Pastoral and Fisheries livelihood zones precipitating migration of approximately 50 percent of all livestock species that impacted negatively on milk availability at household level and consequently reduced consumption level by 50-100 percent compounded with the prevailing insecurity that affected market access hence the observed hike in malnutrition cases in January 2021.

3.3.2. Immunization and Vitamin A supplementation The proportion of fully immunized child (FIC) dropped from 95.7 percent in 2019 to 64.6 percent in 2020 (Figure 10). The performance is below the nationally accepted performance of 80 percent and could be attributed to the revision of target population in July 2020 whereby the denominator was raised thereby affecting the proportion, maternal newborn and child health (MNCH) service scale down due to COVID-19 restrictions and partial closure of some major facilities for utilization as COVID-19 isolation and treatment sites. The county coverage for measles was 69.1 percent, OPV3 at 70.6 percent and OPV1 at 80.2 percent. Turkana East reported the lowest coverage for the three antigens (OPV1-35 percent, OPV3-32.2 Figure 10: Immunization Trends percent and Measles-40.1 20

percent). Vitamin A supplementation (VAS) coverage in children 6-59 months in 2020 decreased compared to 2019. The change was significant especially among children 6-11 months (62 percent in 2019 to 43 percent in Vitamin A Supplementation 2020). The observed trend was 70% attributed to a replica of reasons 60% like the immunization coverage 50% such as revision of target 40% population in July 2020 whereby 30% the denominator was raised 20% thereby affecting the proportion. MNCH service scale down due 10% to COVID-19 restrictions and 0% Children 6-11 months Children 12 to 59 months partial closure of some major facilities for utilization as July -Dec 2020 July -Dec 2019 COVID-19 isolation and Figure 11: Vitamin A Supplementation Trends treatment sites were the other drivers. During the COVID-19 outbreak period, static service delivery points were not significantly affected but major facilities that were used as isolation points and treatment sites for COVID-19 cases contributed to the scale down of MNCH service delivery. Community health strategy (CHS) mobile outreach clinics were closed due to COVID-19 restrictions on social distancing with children physical growth monitoring being suspended to reduce contact time of health care workers with children. However, to mitigate the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on immunization and vitamin A, world health days and national days like world breastfeeding and Malezi bora were used to increase coverage through CHS. In addition, during the short rains season, integrated outreaches that were opened up by the MoH and its partners like World Food Programme (WFP), Save the children, Afya Timiza, Concern world wide and Kenya Redcross were critical in enhancing coverage with service scale up in isolation facilities to provide MNCH services being applied.

3.3.3. Nutrition Status and Dietary Diversity According to the NDMA surveillance data from all the livelihood zones for the period July 2020 to January 2021, proportion of children under five years that were moderately malnourished based on mid upper arm circumference (colour MUAC) increased gradually from July 2020 to October 2020 following the setting in of the dry season that resulted to development of a moderate drought in the Fisheries livelihood zone (Figure 12). Among the other Figure 12: Trends in Malnutrition During OND 2020 Season factors that were driving the observed trend included: poor child care practices occasioned by migration of households in search of forage, reduced milk consumption level (dropped from 2 litres to 1 litre), poor dietary diversity influenced by the declining ToT (from 50 to 43), poor health seeking 21

behaviour prompted by the fear of getting infected with COVID-19 in public places coupled with absence of integrated health outreaches translating to significantly reduced provision of essential nutrition services especially in the malnutrition hotspots within the hard to reach areas. The onset of the short rains in October led to stabilization of the milk consumption level and the terms of trade owing to the regeneration of some browse with the initiated outreaches albeit minimal playing a critical role in the delivery of health and nutrition services to select few hotspots. However, cessation of rainfall during the first dekad of December led to development of a moderate drought in the Pastoral and Fisheries livelihood zones precipitating migration of approximately 50 percent of all livestock species that impacted negatively on milk availability at household level and consequently reduced consumption level by 50-100 percent compounded with the prevailing insecurity that affected market access hence the observed hike in malnutrition cases in January 2021. The number of meals consumed across the livelihood zones was 1-2 per day and that was not normal for the period under review. The main diet consisted of maize and beans and children were fed 3-4 times a day with porridge from maize flour. Despite a knowledge attitudes and practices having not been done since 2017, data from the the focus group discussions indicated that early initiation and exclusive breastfeeding for the first six months was practiced in all the areas visited with the average duration of breastfeeding being 24 months. The KHIS 2020 data of child growth monitoring revealed they were within the normal trends and that was due to service access at static health facilities only. The 2020 severe acute malnutrition admissions were lower than those of 2019 (Figure 13) and that could be attributed to COVID-19 Figure 13: Severe Acute Malnutrition and Moderate Acute Malnutrition Trends pandemic restrictions and non-existence of integrated outreaches for the better part of the year that hindered case identification and follow-up. Sanitation and Hygiene County latrine coverage for the period July to December 2020 improved to 34 percent from 28 percent in 2019 and all the Sub- counties had a latrine coverage above 18 percent. Turkana Central had the highest latrine coverage at 49 percent whereas Turkana North and Kibish had the lowest at 18 percent and 20 percent respectively (Figure 14). Figure 14: Latrine Coverage

3.4 Trends of Key Food Security Indicators Table 14 shows trends of food security indicators from the Long Rains Assessment in July 2020 to the Short Rains Assessment in January 2021. 22

Table 14: Food Security Trends in Turkana County Indicator Long Rains Assessment, July Short Rains Assessment, January 2020 2021 % of maize stocks held by households (Agro- 69% of the LTA 21% of the LTA pastoral) Livestock body Pastoral: Good for all species Pastoral: Fair for all species condition Agro-pastoral: Good for all species Agro-pastoral: Fair for all species Fisheries: Fair for all species Fisheries: Fair for all species Water consumption (litres Pastoral: 20 Litres Pastoral: 10 Litres per person per day) Agro-pastoral: 30 litres Agro-pastoral: 15 litres Fisheries: 20 litres Fisheries: 10 litres Price of maize (per kg) KSh. 71 KSh. 66 Distance to grazing Pastoral: 3 kilometres Pastoral: 5-8 kilometres (km) Agro-pastoral: 3 kilometres Agro-pastoral: 3-5 kilometres Fisheries: < 2 kilometres Fisheries: 4-6 kilometres Terms of Trade (ToT) 50 kg 38 kg Coping Strategy Index rCSI: 17.0 rCSI: 16.6 Food Consumption Overall FCS: 30 Overall FCS: 28 Score Pastoral Livelihood Zone Poor: 39.8 Poor: 13.3 Borderline:35.6 Borderline: 51.1 Proportion of Acceptable: 24.6 Acceptable: 35.6 Households in the FCS Agro-pastoral Livelihood Zone categories (%) Poor: 25 Poor: 11.7 Borderline: 35 Borderline: 53.3 Acceptable: 40 Acceptable: 35 Fisheries Livelihood Zone Poor: 23.3 Poor: 30 Borderline: 40 Borderline: 66.7 Acceptable: 36.7 Acceptable: 3.3

4.0 CROSS-CUTTING ISSUES 4.1 Education Table 15: Access (Enrolment) Enrolment Term I 2020 Term II 2021 Boys Girls Total Boys Girls Total ECD 40,123 34,439 74,562 39,591 31,192 70,782 Primary 87,949 81,025 168,974 84,124 78,118 162,238

Secondary 11,064 8,450 19,514 10,561 7,471 18,032 Across all the levels of education (ECD, primary and secondary) there was a notable decline in enrolment. Among the factors that contributed to the observed scenario was insecurity especially in the areas that experienced frequent raids with schools such as Kapedo mixed, Silale, Napeitom, Kapedo girls, Kamuge and Lomelo primary schools and Kapedo secondary in Turkana East Sub county being affected and therefore a significant proportion of learners were not able to access education. Migration in search of pasture and water due to the prevailing drought situation, lack of school meals, engagement in motor bike business and fishing activities along Lake Turkana, transfers outside the county, fear on the part of the parents to release learners due to COVID-19 pandemic and teenage pregnancies occasioned 23

by the long stay at home were some of the other factors that affected enrolment across the primary and secondary levels negatively. The outbreak of COVID-19 had a significant impact on education sector with Our Lady of Mercy school in Kakuma being used as a quarantine centre while others such as Lodwar and Uhuru high in Turkana Central and Turkana South were designated as centres but not utilized; however, there were no damages reported. The enrolment at all levels before COVID-19 outbreak was high due to the stable supply of school meals that contributed to a high transition rate. The government policy of 100 percent transition also contributed to the high enrolment in term 1 2020 unlike in 2021 where the enrolment was low due to the fear on the part of parents avoiding taking their children back to school because of the COVID -19 pandemic. The long stay at home of nine months also led to approximately 338 teenage pregnancies being recorded and that contributed to the increased number of drop-outs as depicted in table 16 since some were yet to report back as at the time of the assessment. Absence of the school meals programme that normally acted as the pull factor among the learners who relied on it in all the 428 schools under the programme negatively affected participation and retention of the learners in schools. Table 16: Drop-Out in Schools Term II 2021 No of Boys No. of Girls Total ECD 2,059 2,956 5,015 Primary 3,828 2,907 6,735 Secondary 503 979 1,482 Total 6,390 6,842 The e-Learning programme introduced by the government through the Kenya Institute for Curiculum Development (KICD) did not benefit all learners in the county. Approximately 80 percent of the learners did not utilize e-Learning because of the poor and low internet coverage, majority of households (estimated to be 75 percent) neither accessed television/ smart phones nor were they aware of the government’s e-Learning programme. A total of 10 and 13 villages in Turkana North and Kibish respectively were supported by UNICEF with learning materials and 760 and 782 radios to 46 and 50 villages in Turkana Central and Turkana South accordingly. During the field assessment mission, it was noted that in some areas the frequency coverage of the solar radios was poor but learners were able to use them for listening to news, lighting and reading at night. Education Development Trust (EDT) supplied 1,150 radios and 2,011 exercise books and pens to 27 villages in Turkana South, 19 in Turkana East and 14 in Loima Sub county benefitting a total of 2,011 girls through the Manyatta based learning programme. During the partial re-opening of schools from October to December 2020 for term 2, learners in grade 4, class 8 and form 4 continued efficiently with their learning while adhering to MoH protocols throughout the period.

School Reopening Interventions Measures put in place before schools re-opened included: provision of hand washing facilities, ensuring learners were wearing masks and observing social distance all the time while in school, renovated two classrooms in Loima and one dormitory in Turkana West, the government under the Economic Stimulus Project (ESP) provided 7,140 desks to primary schools and 2,900 desks to secondary schools and thermoguns were also mandatory in all schools in compliance with MoH protocols. Girl child Network supplied hand sanitizers to eight schools and trained teachers on child protection measures and rights. Across all the livelihood zones, pregnancy cases were reported during the long stay at home but cases of gender-based violence (GBV) were minimal.

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Effect of Short Rains (October to December) in Schools The short rains had adverse effect on the school’s infrastructure with the strong winds blowing off the roofs of classes in Lokangae, Kangirisae, Nakurio, Lopii, Lopeduru, Urum primary, Talent high and Mogila girls among others. The total number of schools affected was 26 (Turkana Centra-11, Loima- three, Turkana North- six, Turkana West-three and Turkana East-three). In addition, schools like Ngimuriae and Longech were sub-merged due to the rising water level in Lake Turkana that affected their re-opening and thus had to shift to the neighboring schools that were safer hence ballooning the enrolment of the host schools and exerting extra pressure on the available facilities. Notably, no interventions have been rolled out to address the damage witnessed in the affected schools.

School Meals Programme (SMP) The only type of school feeding program implemented in the county was the Regular School Meal Programme (RSMP) through which the government provided food to all the 429 public primary schools with a total enrolment of 161,712 (Boys-85,784, Girls-75,928) at primary level and 74,562 (Boys-40,123, Girls-34,439) at ECDE level (Table 17). The school meals programme normally played a significant role in access, participation and retention of the learners in school. However, during the time when the assessment was being conducted, there was no food in schools and therefore, the entire school population missed their meals given there was no community participation in provision of meals.

Table 17: School Meals Programme Sub-County Regular School Meals Programme No. of Schools Boys Girls Totals Turkana Central 88 19,445 18,318 37,851 Loima 70 6,909 5,971 12,950 Kibish 12 2,155 1,400 3,567 Turkana North 43 5,794 5,046 10,883 Turkana West 63 16,128 12,932 29,123 Turkana East 41 8,349 7,534 15,924 Turkana South 112 27,004 24,727 51,843 TOTAL 429 85,784 75,928 161,712

4.2. Inter Sectoral Links The sanitation and hygiene in all the levels of education was poor with the 161 primary schools, 161 ECDE centers and 12 secondary schools having inadequate functional latrines and some had no access to safe drinking water (Table 18). A request had been sent out to stakeholders to sink boreholes as an intervention aimed at ensuring there was access to safe water for drinking, cooking and other purposes like tree planting and kitchen gardens so as to improve the nutritional value of meals. During the closure of schools, sanitary packs were provided by the government. Girl child network organization and Education Development Trust also provided these packs to 1,149 girls in their areas of operation in the county including Loima, Turkana South and Turkana East. There was population displacement and migration in some places that impacted on children access to education especially in Turkana East and North where parents moved with their children to pasture reserves and secure areas. Table 18: Water and Sanitation Situation in Schools Name Number ofschools with Number of schools with no Number of schools with no of sub- inadequate functional latrine hand-washing facilities access to safe water county (i.e. Pupil toilet Ratio- PtOR of (functional source within above 1:60) 100m)

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Second ECD Primary Secondary ECD Primary Secondary ECD Primary ary Turkana 25 25 2 25 25 0 14 14 3 Central Loima 30 10 0 13 13 0 31 30 0 Kibish 10 10 0 7 6 0 10 9 1 Turkana 11 11 3 12 15 0 0 11 2 North Turkana 29 29 1 10 5 0 57 57 2 West Turkana 0 20 4 5 5 0 0 15 2 East Turkana 56 56 2 42 42 0 146 95 8 South Total 161 161 12 114 111 0 258 231 18

5.0 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS 5.1. Assumptions The February 2021 to July 2021 food security outcomes in Turkana County are based on the following assumptions:  According to the NDMA early warning bulletin for January 2021, drought severity will most likely intensify (‘Alarm’) for the next two months before the onset of the long rains.  According to the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD), dry and extended periods of sunny intervals will prevail across February to April with the maximum temperature rising to 340C-360C.  Food prices are expected to continue rising by 20-30 percent for the next six months following the minimal agricultural activities witnessed during the short rains period in the county and that will most likely have a remarkable negative impact on the household purchasing power.  Based on forecasts from NOAA/CPC and USGS, March to May long rains performance will most likely be below average.  Resumption of pre-COVID-19 tax rates will reduce household income by 25-50 percent and food access as the cost of food and non-food commodities increase to reflect the adjusted tax rates between February and July 2021.  According to the desert locust global forecast by The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the likelihood of re-invasion of the Desert Locusts into the county from the neighbouring counties and Ethiopia in February 2021 shall remain high and therefore significant damage (25-30 percent loss) to crops and forage may occur between March to July 2021.  Based on available information from the ministry of health and World Health Organization (WHO), new strains of severe COVID-19 are likely to emerge and coupled with the relaxation of the COVID-19 containment measures, a rise in confirmed positive cases will most likely be witnessed between March to May and that is likely to compromise household expenditure patterns significantly.  As per the veterinary department; Turkana County Government livestock diseases e- surveillance system, the likelihood of an upsurge in livestock diseases with a prevalence of 20-30 percent driven by convergence in dry season grazing areas will most likely be witnessed across the outlook period (February to July 2021).

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 Cattle rustling and banditry attacks forecasted to increase beween February to April 2021 especially in the conflict hotspots where livestock have converged in search of forage and water and that will exacerbate vulnerability of households.

5.2. Food Security Outlook for February to April 2021 Following the poor performance of the short rains, vegetation and water resources are likely to remain below average except in the Agro-Pastoral livelihood zone thereby impacting on livestock productivity negatively. Therefore, household income from livestock is expected to be affected negatively owing to the forecasted impact the re-invasion of Desert Locusts will have on forage whose recovery was poor during the 2020 short rains season. In addition, given the high likelihood of increased disease incidents during the outlook period, market systems are likely to be affected resulting to negative shocks on household food security being felt especially among Pastoral households. The situation is likely to be exacerbated more so for the poor vulnerable households given food prices are projected to rise steadily as a consequence of internal stocks remaining below normal following crop failure and non- planting during the short rains season. Additionally, malnutrition levels will most probably be on the rise albeit remaining within the critical levels due to absence of notable interventions aimed at protecting the gains made. Consequently ‘Crisis’ food security outcomes are anticipated to be sustained by a significant proportion of households in the Fisheries and Pastoral livelihood zones with some in the conflict hotspots in the Pastoral livelihood zone likely to be in ‘Emergency’ (IPC phase IV). In order to bridge the prevailing food gaps, more households are expected to apply more and more severe consumption based coping strategies on a regular basis complemented with ‘Crisis’ livelihood coping strategies. 5.3. Food Security Outlook for May to July 2021 The forecasted below average performance of the long rains will drive below average pasture/browse regeneration and water availability resulting to below-average livestock productivity occasioned by the longer than normal trekking distances in search of forage. Continued migration of livestock towards the periphery dry season grazing areas of the county and even across the borders will most likely increase the risk of resource-based conflict across the international and inter-county borders. Livestock prices are projected to seasonally decline as the body condition fails to recover fully and that will have a considerable effect on the terms of trade given maize price is also anticipated to remain high owing to the depletion of household stocks internally and therefore over reliance on imports hence complicating the food security situation for majority of the households. In order to remain a float, activities such as firewood and charcoal burning will most likely be intensified with lack of milk to consume for the under fives likely to fuel an increase in malnutrition to ‘emergency’ thresholds in particular hotspots based on historical trends in the county. Subsequently, a significant proportion of households in the Fisheries and Pastoral livelihood zones will not be able to meet their basic food requirements without external intervention and thus will face ‘Crisis’ and ‘Emergency’ food security outcomes across May to July 2021. Reduced food intake, high disease prevalence including COVID-19, reduced household incomes will drive households to apply more and more ‘Emergency’ livelihood based coping strategies and therefore affecting resilience building efforts considerably.

6.0 CONCLUSIONS AND INTERVENTIONS 6.1 Conclusion 6.1.1 Phase Classification The food security phase classification for Turkana has shifted since the long rains’ assessment was conducted in July 2020. The Pastoral and Fisheries livelihood zones were 27

classified under the ‘Crisis’ phase while residents of the Agro-pastoral livelihood zone were experiencing ‘Stressed’ food security outcomes with the County transitioning to ‘IPC Phase III’ and the proportion of affected population in need of food assistance increasing significantly. 6.1.2 Summary of Findings Food consumption deteriorated during the 2020 short rains with approximately one third of the population for instance in the Pastoral livelihood zone being classified as having a poor food consumption score. A similar scenario was observed in the Fisheries livelihood zone where the proportion under the aforementioned category had increased by seven percent since the previous assessment. The reduced coping strategy index (rCSI) is 16.6 and despite being at par with the one reported for the same period the previous year, it remains typically high. Proportion of children aged five years and below who were moderately malnourished was 6.1 percent and notably it had increased significantly since the long rains assessment.

6.1.2 Sub-County Ranking Table 19: Ranking of Sub-County in Order of Food Insecurity Severity Sub County Sub-County Current main food security threats Ranking (1=Most food insecure, 7=Least food insecure) Turkana East 1 • Below normal OND 2020 rainfall (51-75 percent of Normal). • High drought risk attributed to poor performance of the short rains (Highest-All wards) . • Insecurity (High due to frequent raids and killings in Kapedo, Lomelo, Napeitom and Lokwamosing). • Desert Locust (DL) Invasion Effects (poor forage, Destroyed farm crops) and existence of Tree Locusts (TL). • ProsophisJjuli flora and ‘other invasive species’ wide spread which has affected farming and pastoralism due to invasion of the vegetation in the farms and pasture lands. • Limited humanitarian interventions; high insecurity cases. • Low immunization coverage (FIC-40 percent). • High prevalence of livestock diseases (Second Highest). • Market accessibility affected (Kapedo/Napeitom ward). Turkana North 2 • Significantly below normal 2020 short rains (51-75 percent). • High drought risk attributed to poor OND rainfall: Nakalale, Kaeris, Lakezone, Kaaleng and Lapur wards affected. • Insecurity in grazing zones (Todonyang). • DL Invasion Effects (poor forage condition, Destroyed Crops) • Prosophis Juliflora proliferation: affected most grazing points. • Effects caused by Lake Turkana backflow in Lakezone ward. that disrupted fishing activities: low volume of fish. • Limited market accessibility as a result of poor infrastructure. • Low latrine coverage (18 percent). • COVID-19: Seven cases reported since the outbreak. 28

• High food commodity prices (Maize: 100/= per Kg). • Migration reported towards Kibish. • Elongated trekking return distance to water source (20km) Kibish 3 • Insecurity (Medium); Limited humanitarian interventions. • No agro-pastoral activities. • Poor market infrastructure; High food commodity prices. • Interrupted service delivery through mobile clinic. Turkana Central 4 • Poor performance of the OND rainfall; (51percent of Normal) • DL/TL Invasion Effects (poor forage, Destroyed farm crops). • Prosophis Juli flora wide spread which has affected most grazing points and farms under irrigated agriculture. • Effects caused by the Lake Turkana backflow (Most affected). Disruption of fishing activities: low volume of fish • Low Vitamin A Supplementation Coverage (Lowest). • High drought risk index; Kerio Delta, Kangatotha and Kalokol, Kanamkemer, Township wards affected. • COVID-19: 302 cases reported since the outbreak. Turkana South 5 • DL/TL Invasion Effects (poor forage, Destroyed farm crops). • High prevalence of livestock diseases occasioned by convergence in grazing points along Agro-Pastoral zone. • Poor 2020 OND performance in two wards (Kalapata and Lokichar wards and sections of Lobokat ward). • High drought risk in two wards: Kalapata and Lokichar. • COVID-19: 16 cases reported since the outbreak. Loima 6 • DL Invasion Effects (poor forage-Loima and Turkwel wards, Destroyed farm crops); minimal farming activities. • Prosophis Juli flora wide spread which has affected most grazing points and farmland especially in irrigation schemes. • High food prices; occasioned closure of Ugandan border. • Market disruption: Namuruputh, Lorengipi. Turkana West 7 • DL/TL Invasion Effects (Destroyed farm crops) • Prosophis Juli flora wide spread which has affected farming activities in Letea, Lopur,Lokichoggio and Kakuma wards. • Low Vitamin A Supplementation Coverage (Second Lowest). • COVID-19: 546 cases reported since outbreak-highest.

6.2 Ongoing Interventions 6.2.1 Food Interventions The following food interventions are on-going in Turkana County:  Provision of relief food to vulnerable households affected by conflict/insecurity in Kapedo/Napeitom ward (Lomelo, Ngilukia, Kaamuge, Napeitom and Kangiteitei villages); Turkana East by Turkana County government. Approximately 1,200 households have been targeted with the 77.7 metric tonnes of assorted cereals and cooking oil.  Targeting of 39,918 households in all the Sub counties with Kenya Shilling 5,400 under the Hunger Safety Net Programme (HSNP) implemented by the National Drought Management Authority. However, the disbursement was conducted in February 2021 as opposed to January normally.  A total of 1,249 beneficiaries in Turkana Central (Kerio and Kalokol wards) and 29

Turkana North (Lakezone ward) were reached with Kenya Shilling 5,000 under the cash transfer programme implemented by Save the Children International (SCI) during the period August to December 2020.  The Kenya Redcross supported communities registered during the multiple response programme (COVID-19, Desert Locusts and Floods) with Kenya Shilling 7,600 per household for the period July 2020 to January 2021. The supported targeted 120 beneficiaries in Turkana East (Lokori/Kochodin ward), 841 beneficiaries in Turkana Central (Kanamkemer-105, Township-147, Kerio Delta-166, Kalokol-219, Kangatotha-204) and 125 beneficiaries in Turkana West (Letea ward).  International Refugee Council (IRC) was implementing a cash transfer programme targeting 380 beneficiaries with Kenya Shilling 5,500 in Katilu, Lokichar, Lobei/Kotaruk, Township and Kalokol wards running from October 2020 to March 2021. 6.2.2 Non-Food Interventions Table 20: Non-food Intervention Sub- Intervention/ Specific Number of Implementers Impacts Cost Time county activity (Please Location benefic-iaries (positive and (Million) Frame be as detailed as negative) of possible.) each intervention. Livestock

All Sub- Awareness All wards 100,000 Turkana Sensitize people 3M Long counties creation, County about COVID- term Deployment of Covernment 19, Promote COVID-19 (TCG), personal compliance Partners hygiene& officers in sale mitigate the yards, Provision spread of of hand washing COVID-19 equipments Turkana Provision of All wards 2,600 FAO, ACTED Improved 5.1M 1Month North, livestock feed livestock body East, (5,000 bags of condition Central, supplementary South, feed) Loima Turkana Community All wards 1000 FAO, ACTED Improved 5M 1Month Central, mobilization and Households livelihoods South, beneficiary (HH) East, identification for Loima, distribution of 5,000 chicks Turkana Distribution of All wards 262 HH Welt Hunger To relieve 1.5M 6 Months West Livestock Hilfe livestock from Supplementary drought shock feeds and treatment vouchers Loima, Refresher training All wards 300 Peace Winds Enhanced Desert 1M 3 Months Turkana for youths on Japan, TCG locust Central, Desert locust surveillance South, surveillance and North, control East

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Sub- Intervention/ Specific Number of Implementers Impacts Cost Time county activity (Please Location benefic-iaries (positive and (Million) Frame be as detailed as negative) of possible.) each intervention. Water

All Sub Repair and All wards 60,000 TCG Increase water 40M 6Month counties servicing of access and broken-down availability to water points and the communities. systems.

All Sub- Drilling and All wards 65,000 TCG Increase water 182M 6-12 counties equipping of KOICA access and Months boreholes UNICEF availability to the communities Turkana Construction of Lomelo/N Livestock– RVWHSB Improve access 5M 3 East water pans apeitom- 10,000 to water by Months Napeitom livestock Turkana Water subsidy Kakuma 100,000 TCG Continuous 3M 12 West cost at 50 percent & Lodwar supply of water Months and to cushion on towns to consumers. Central COVID-19 effect All Sub Supply and All wards 100,000 TCG Promote 2.5M 12 counties installation of handwashing; Months hand washing Reduce spread equipments of COVID-19 Turkana Upgrading of high Katilia 4,250 TCG Improve water 5M 6 East, yielding (Nakotong accessibility and Months South boreholes and wa), reduce extension of Kalapata congestion. pipeline to (Katiir) dispensary, school and village. Turkana Desilting of water Lokichar- 30,000 TCG Improve accesss 6M 6 Months South pans Napusmor to water by u livestock &Kaputir- Kaputir Junction Agriculture

Turkana Repair of dykes Lokori, 3,500 MOAPEF, Avail enough 1M 6 Months East Kochodin NIB water for crops

All Sub- Sensitization and Lokori, 17,350 MOA, FAO Mitigate on the 0.5M 3 Months countie capacity building Kochodi effect of desert s of youth and n locusts on crops administrators on desert locust biology, behavior, surveillance and reporting Turkana Market linkage Lokori, 2,500 MOA, WFP Market linkage 4M 6-12 East and construction Kochodin for food and Months of processing nutrition security plant at Morulem

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Sub- Intervention/ Specific Number of Implementers Impacts Cost Time county activity (Please Location benefic-iaries (positive and (Million) Frame be as detailed as negative) of possible.) each intervention. Turkana Expansion of Lokori, 1,250 NIB, MOA Will reduce 2M 6-12 East farms under Kochodin dependence Months Irrigation since people have productive land Turkana Establishment of Lapur, 5,700 TCG Increased HH 26M 12 North, 10 Hectare drip Kaeris, DRSLP income, reduced Months East, irrigation scheme Katilia dependency and improved food security Loima Clearing of Turkwel 875 HH MOA, WFP Increase size of 3.8M 3 Months Prosophis juli and Lobei, arable land. flora, Mechanized Kotaruk Ensure land consistent water preparation in 10 supply to crops irrigation schemes desilting of canals Turkana Supply of Songot, 750 HH Welt Hunger To cushion 5M 7 Months West assorted farm Lokichogi Hilfe farmers from inputs (8 kg per o long term effects farmer) Kakuma, of COVID-19 Kalobeyei, Turkana Land clearing Songot, 200 HH Welt Hunger Increase size of 0.2M 2 Months West Lokichogi Hilfe productive o arable land. Kakuma, Kalobeyei,

Health

All 7 Vitamin A All 15, 060 TCG-MoH Improved health 10M 6 Sub- supplementation operationa status of Months counties l facilities community, Improved nutrition status Zinc All 100,000 TCG-MoH & Improved health 5M 6 supplementation operationa Partners status and body Months l facilities health All 7 Management of All 33,277 TCG-MoH & Improved 30M 6 Sub- Acute operationa Partners nutrition status. Months counties Malnutrition l facilities Eradicate malnourishment All 7 IYCN All 39,287 DoHS, TCG- Improve 6M 6 Sub- intervention (EBF operationa MoH & household Months counties on timely l facilities Partners nutrition introduction of complementary foods) All 7 Iron folate All 40,465 DoHS, TCG- Improve 5M 6 Sub- supplementation operationa MoH & maternal health Months counties among pregnant l facilities Partners of women and women the unborn. Eradicate illnesses & 32

Sub- Intervention/ Specific Number of Implementers Impacts Cost Time county activity (Please Location benefic-iaries (positive and (Million) Frame be as detailed as negative) of possible.) each intervention. reduce infant mortality All 7 Deworming All 105,145 DoHS, TCG- Improve general 4M 6 Sub- operationa MoH & body health. Months counties l facilities Partners All 7 Food fortification All 40,000 DoHS, TCG- Improve 5M 6 Sub- operationa MoH & nutrition. Months counties l facilities Partners Eradicate malnourishment. All 7 Blanket When 10,000 Relieve hunger 20M 6 Sub- Supplementary need caused by long Months counties Feeding arises term effects of drought Education

All Sub- Supply of ESP All public ECDE- MoE, Increase 34.4M 3 Months counties desks to the primary 86,581 TCG enrollment schools schools Primary- and ECDE 162,238, centers Secondary 18,032 All Sub Provision of All wards ECDE- MOE To comply with 5M 3 Months counties masks to all 86,581 Parents, MoH protocols children Primary- Partners e.g. and protect 162,238, UNICEF, learners against Secondary KCB COVID-19 18,032 All Sub Installation of All wards ECDE 70,783 MOE, patners Increase 24M 3 Months counties steady hand Primary in education enrollment washing facilities 162,238 in schools Secondary 18,032 All Sub Introduction of All wards Primary- Partners eg To meet 4M 12 counties kitchen gardens in 162,238 and JICA nutritional value Months schools ECDE-70,783 in school meals

6.3 Recommended Interventions 6.3.1 Food Interventions Following the short rains assessment on the impact of the OND 2020 rainfall on various livelihood sectors, the assessment team recommended Cash For Asset (CFA) as the most appropriate implementation modality for delivering assistance to the most food insecure population. The proportion of the population in need across the seven Sub-counties in Turkana County is as indicated in table 21.

Table 21: Population in Need of Food Assistance Sub-County Population in need Proposed Mode of (% range min – max) Intervention Turkana East 25-30 CFA

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Turkana North 30-35 CFA Kibish 20-25 CFA Turkana Central 20-25 CFA Turkana South 15-20 CFA Loima 10-15 CFA Turkana West 20-25 CFA

6.3.2 Non-Food Interventions Table 22: Non-Food Recommended Interventions Sub Intervention Specific No. of Implementers Required Available Time County Location beneficiaries Resources Resources Frame (Ksh) Livestock County Supply of All wards 26,000 HH TCG, NDMA, 67M Staff 3 wide supplementary FAO,RPLRP, Months livestock feeds NARIGP other to Drought Partners affected Sites County Mitigate All wards 33,000 HH TCG, NDMA, and 165M Staff 3 wide against partners Months livestock losses through commercial and slaughter offtake County Targeted All wards 18,000 HH TCG, NDMA, 24M Staff 3 wide treatment FAO,RPLRP, Months ,deworming NARIGP other and Partners vaccination in livestock convergence areas Turkana Provision of Kerio, Kalokol, 7,000HH TCG, National 255M Staff 2 North fishing gear, Lakezone, Government, Months and re-building of Kang’atotha NDMA, FAO, Central BMUs and WFP, NARIGP maintainance and other partners of market / feeder roads County Indigenous All wards 8,000HH TCG 12M Staff 3Months wide chicken Partners support to women and youth Water All Sub Procure fast All wards 210,000 TCG,NG, 54M 30M 3 counties moving spare RVWSB,NDMA, Months parts for hand Partners pumps, solar systems and genset systems. All sub Equipping of All wards 80,000 TCG, NDMA, 150M 20M 6-12 counties drilled capped RPLRP, NG, Months boreholes. Partners

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Sub Intervention Specific No. of Implementers Required Available Time County Location beneficiaries Resources Resources Frame (Ksh) All sub Provision of All wards 200,000 TCG 200M 10M 6-12 counties water during Partners Months the drought period through water trucking to and villages Turkana Tarach and Kakuma and 20,000 TCG, Partners 160 M 0 6-12 West Natira Lokichoggio Months riverbank protection project to prevent water points from being swept away All Sub Upgrading of All wards 200,000 TCG 300M 0 6-12 counties high yielding Partners Months boreholes Turkana Provision of Lokichar, 15,000 TCG,NG, 20M 0 3 South, fuel Subsidy to Kalapata, Kerio, RVWSB,NDMA, Months East, genset driven Kanamkemer, Partners Central boreholes Lakezone, Kaeris, and Kalokol North Turkana Lapur river Katilu 12,000 TCG, Partners 6 M 0 6-12 South protection to Months prevent Bethlehem borehole from being swept away All Sub Desilting and All wards 50,000 TCG,NG, 100M 0 6-12 counties repair of water RVWSB,NDMA, Months pans Partners Health and Nutrition Seven Conduct a Entire County 6,000 TCG/Partners 10M Nutrition 3 Sub rapid commodities, Months counties assessment Human and Mass resource screening exercise in the malnutrition hotspots Seven Initiate Entire County 33,000 TCG/WFP,NDMA, 82M Human 6 Sub integrated Partners(KRCS, resource Months counties health, SCI, Afya Timiza, Vehicles, nutrition and WHH, IRC, nutrition WASH Concern supplies outreaches in Worldwide hard to reach areas of to ensure continued access to health and 35

Sub Intervention Specific No. of Implementers Required Available Time County Location beneficiaries Resources Resources Frame (Ksh) nutrition services

Seven Scaling up Entire County 125,000 TCG/WFP,NDMA, 55M Human 6 Sub WASH Partners(KRCS, resource, Months counties services SCI, Afya Timiza, Vehicles including WHH, IRC, CLTS to Concern improve on Worldwide poor hygiene and sanitation status in the county

Seven Upscaling of All wards 175,000 TCG/WFP,NDMA, 15M Human 6 Sub maternal infant Partners(KRCS, resource, Months counties and young SCI, Afya Timiza, Vehicles child nutrition WHH, IRC, (MIYCN) Concern Worldwide Education All Sub Constant All wards ECDE- MOE, TCG 286M Stores, Counties supply of 70783 human 3 RSMP Primary- resource Months 162238 All Sub Sinking All wards 140 schools MOE, TCG, 280 M Human 3 Counties boreholes in 56,325 partners in resource Months schools Education All Sub Improve on All wards ECDE - MOE, Partners in 61M Human Counties WASH 1,213 Education resource Programme Primary- - 3 56,412 Months Secondary- 4,321 All Sub Building new Affected Wards ECDE- 283 MoE, TCG, 66M Human Counties classes that Primary- Partners resource 3 were destroyed 13,659 Months by floods and Secondary- strong winds 1,825 Agriculture Turkana Establishment Lokori, Lapur, 800 MoAPEF & 8.5M Land 6 East, of functional Kochodin, developmental Months North demo plots Kaeris, Katilia partners. Turkana Soil sampling Lokori, Kochodin 58,000 MoAPEF & 5M Human 6 East and analysis to and Katilia, developmental resources Months /North ascertain Katilu partners. nutrient deficiency Turkana Crop insurance Katilia,Katilu, 58,000 Line ministries and 50M 0 6-12 East cushion Lobokat,Turkwel, developmental Months North farmers in case Kaputir, Letea partners. of occurrence of natural calamities like drought. 36

Sub Intervention Specific No. of Implementers Required Available Time County Location beneficiaries Resources Resources Frame (Ksh) Turkana Canal lining Katilia, Katilu 28,000 MoAPEF & 7M Human 2 East, due to high developmental Resource Months South evaporation partners. Turkana Develop Lokori, Katilia, 28,000 MoAPEF & 15M -Irrigation 6 East irrigation Lapur, Kaeris developmental materials. Months Schemes by partners. -Technical reviving all the personnel irrigation schemes and using technologies that will avail water to the vast land to enable farmers produce a variety of foods. Turkana Establishing of Kapedo/Napeitom 100 Groups MoAPEF & 1.5M Irrigation 6 East shed nets, ward developmental schemes Months vertical partners. gardens Turkana Dig boreholes Katilia ward 150 MoAPEF & 7.5M Arable land 6 East, and equip with Kaaleng, Kaikor, developmental Months South, solarized panel Lakezone and partners. West, for drip Nakalale, Loima, irrigation North Turkana Mechanized Kaaleng, Kaikor, 5,000 MoAPEF & 10M Underground 6 East, land Lakezone and developmental water Months South, preparation to Nakalale, Letea, partners. West, increase land Kakong, Kaitese Loima, under North production and effective land preparation for water storage

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