ISSH - Stochastic Hydraulics 2005 - 23 and 24 May 2005 - Nijmegen - The Netherlands Abstracts of the ISSH - Stochastic Hydraulics 2005, 23 and 24 May 2005 Nijmegen, The Netherlands Published by: IAHR, Paseo Bajo Virgen del Puerto 3, 28005 Madrid, Spain First published 2005 ISBN: 90-805649-9-0 Copyright: IAHR, 2005. The book includes a CD-ROM of the full papers All rights, including translation reserved. Except for fair copying, no part of this publication may be reproduced , stored in retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying or otherwise, without the prior written permission of the publisher: IAHR, Paseo Bajo Virgen del Puerto 3, 28005 Madrid, Spain. This book is published on the understanding that the authors are solely responsible for the statements made and opinions expressed in it and that its publication does not necessarily imply that such statements and/or opinions are or reflect the views or opinions of the organisers or publishers. ) 3 ( ISSH - Stochastic Hydraulics 2005 - 23 and 24 May 2005 - Nijmegen - The Netherlands Preface The International Symposium on Stochastic Hydraulics has become a regular and respected event in the technical conference calendar for engineers and scientists working in all areas of hydraulics. Its importance and reputation was established by the technical successes of the first eight symposia. We are delighted to host the 9th International Symposium of Stochastic Hydraulics in the Netherlands recognising that it is the first time that the event has been held in the Netherlands. In keeping with the traditions established at the first eight symposia, the objectives of this symposium are to provide a forum for exchange of the latest developments in the application of stochastic analysis to river hydraulics, sediment transport, catchment hydraulics, groundwater, waves and coastal processes, hydraulic network and structures, hydrol- ogy, risk and reliability in hydraulic design and water resources in general. The focus of the symposium has particular relevance to a world in which water resource supplies are increasingly nearing full exploitation. Similarly, as the level of development has increased across the globe, the vulnerability of society to the impacts of extreme events has also increased. These two factors give rise to an increasingly critical need to understand and manage the stochastic processes, that underly the physical environment in which hydraulic infrastructure is constructed and operated. This symposium is one of the major opportunities for engineers and scientists to meet in order to report on and discuss ways in which hydraulic and stochastic analyses can be integrated in an effective and useful manner in order to meet these challenges. In this context, it is important to note that the move, in which the first eight in this series of symposia have played a pivotal role, over the last twenty years towards more explicit recognition of stochastic processes in the design and operation of hydraulic infrastructure and systems must continue. It is therefore the responsibility of this symposium to continue this role, not just by providing a forum in which new devel- opments and approaches can be presented and debated but also by ensuring, through efforts of the participants once the symposium is over and by wide distribution of the proceedings, that these new developments and approaches are promoted more broadly throughout the professional community. ) 3 ( Preface ISSH - Stochastic Hydraulics 2005 - 23 and 24 May 2005 - Nijmegen - The Netherlands The main theme of ISSH9 is ‘Decisions in a changing environment’. The world is undergoing rapid but uncertain changes. Climate change and its influence on water systems may be the most widely published but the growing world population, the changing economic relations, the fast urbanisation etc. are of equal importance. The great challenge is to design and implement sustainable interventions in our environ- ment. To be sustainable the natural, economic societal developments and the related uncertainties have to be taken into account. Here the scientific framework of stochas- tic methods and probabilistic design is of unequalled usefulness. For example the risk of a large dam may become unacceptable due to climatic change, due to morphological cange, due to change of sedimentation, due to reduced management attention, due to increased urbanisation of the valley below or other uncertain developments. Scientists and engineers have to recognise these changes and to propose sustainable measures. Another example is the choice to convey a flood via the river bed or the environmetally improved flood plain, where the uncertainty of the roughness and the future geometry of the more natural water course should be taken into account. The symposium specifically focuses on the following themes: - Inherent uncertainty and climatic change - Modelling and uncertainty - Decision making and uncertainty The Ninth International Conference on Stochastic Hydraulics will act as an exchange for ideas in the theoretical field of water resource related uncertainty and decision making. The practical applications would be well received in the co-organised Third International Symposium on Flood Defence. This Book-of-Abstracts contains the extended abstracts of over 60 contributions. The accompanying CD Rom contains the full papers of the extended abstracts. All contri- butions are ordered in alphabetical order of the last name of the first author. All papers have undergone a careful review process at both the abstract and full paper steps by an International Review Panel, under the auspices of IAHR, Section I4 on Probabilistic Methods: (http://www.iahr.org/inside/sectsdivs/bdy_sec_i4_probmethods.htm). ) 5 ( ISSH - Stochastic Hydraulics 2005 - 23 and 24 May 2005 - Nijmegen - The Netherlands We kindly acknowledge all reviewers who have cooperated so well in reviewing all submissions: Dr. Annette Zijderveld, and Dr. Martin Verlaan, Co-chairmen (RWS/RIKZ) Drs. Erik Ruijgh, Co-chairman (WL | Delft Hydraulics) Dr. Kevin Tickle (Queensland University, AUS) Dr. Jim Hall (Bristol University, UK) Dr. Toshiharu Kojiri (Kyoto University, Japan) Prof. Y.K. Tung (Honkong University, HK) Prof. Arthur Mynett (WL | Delft Hydraulics) Prof. Bela Petry (IHE, NL) Prof. Arnold Heemink (TU Delft, NL) Prof. K.-Peter Holz, (TU Cottbus, DE) Ir. W. Luxemburg (TU Delft, NL) We also thank Dr. Christopher George, Estíbaliz Serrano, Cristina Moreno Saiz (all from IAHR), Bram de Wit (ISSH webmaster), Marco de Wit (WIT Informatisering) and Tine Verheij (Routine) for their help and support in the organisation of this sym- posium. The Symposium has been organised by Delft University of Technology, the Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management, WL | Delft Hydraulics and TNO. Financial support for the symposium has been offered by the Royal Institution of Engineers in The Hague, HKV, DWW, and Van Oord, for which they are kindly acknowledged. We thank the authors for their contributions and wish all participants a fruitful meet- ing and pleasant stay in the Netherlands. Delft, April 20th, 2005 The local organising committee: Han Vrijling, Chairman LOC (TU Delft) Pieter van Gelder, Scientific Secretary (TU Delft) Paul Waarts, Treasurer (TNO) Annette Zijderveld and Marin Verlaan, Co-chairmen TPB (RWS/RIKZ) Erik Ruijgh, Co-chairman TPB (WL | Delft Hydraulics) Bianca Stalenberg, Co-Treasurer (TU Delft) ) 5 ( Table of Contents Table of Contents Contents ISSH - Stochastic Hydraulics 2005 - 23 and 24 May 2005 - Nijmegen - The Netherlands rLIFESim: A Model for Estimating Dam Failure Life Loss Maged Aboelata & David S. Bowles ........................................................................................15 rMulti-reservoir Operations Under Hydroclimatic Uncertainty Iftekhar Ahmed & Kevin Lansey...............................................................................................18 rHydraulic impact of a real time control barrier at the bifurcation points in the Rhine branches in the Netherlands E. Arnold, M. Kok, E. van Velzen & J.K. Vrijling ....................................................................20 rHeterogeneous distributions within flood frequency analysis Alexander.M.R. Bakker & Wim.M.J. Luxemburg......................................................................23 rDetermining the time available for evacuation of a dike-ring area by expert judgement A. Barendregt, J.M. van Noortwijk & M. van der Doef and S.R. Holterman..........................24 rA probabilistic detailed level approach to flood risk assessment in the Scheldt estuary J. Blanckaert & L. Audoorn......................................................................................................27 rStochastic models in a problem of the Caspian sea level forecasting Mikhail V. Bolgov......................................................................................................................30 rExploring sensitivity of flood defence reliability to time-dependent processes F.A. Buijs, J.W. Hall & P.B. Sayers ..........................................................................................31 rStatistic Characteristics Analysis and Prediction for the Runoff of the Mountain -pass Stations of Hexi Area in Gansu Province Chen Yuanfang, Li Juan, Liang Zhongmin, Dong Zhenchuan & Chen Qixing .......................34 rNon-negative Autoregressive Model of Annual Flow and A New. Estimation Method of Its Regression Coefficient Chen