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The Risks and Effects of Indirect, Covert, Terrorist, and Extremist Attacks with Weapons of Mass Destruction

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The Risks and Effects of Indirect, Covert, Terrorist, and Extremist Attacks with Weapons of Mass Destruction CSIS_______________________________ Center for Strategic and International Studies 1800 K Street N.W. Washington, DC 20006 (202) 775-3270 Updates from: CSIS.ORG, “Homeland Defense” Comments to: [email protected] DEFENDING AMERICA REDEFINING THE CONCEPTUAL BORDERS OF HOMELAND DEFENSE THE RISKS AND EFFECTS OF INDIRECT, COVERT, TERRORIST, AND EXTREMIST ATTACKS WITH WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION CHALLENGES FOR DEFENSE AND RESPONSE Final Draft Anthony H. Cordesman Senior Fellow for Strategic Assessment FEBRUARY 14, 2001 Copyright CSIS, all rights reserved. CSIS Homeland Defense: Asymmetric Warfare & Terrorism 2/16/01 Page ii The following report is an excerpt from the final draft of a book on Homeland Defense being prepared as part of the CSIS Homeland Defense project. A substantially revised version will be published as a Praeger book later in 2001. Copyright CSIS, all rights reserved. CSIS Homeland Defense: Asymmetric Warfare & Terrorism 2/16/01 Page iii Table of Contents THE RISKS AND EFFECTS OF INDIRECT, COVERT, TERRORIST, AND EXTREMIST ATTACKS WITH WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION..................................................................................................I CHALLENGES FOR DEFENSE AND RESPONSE ...........................................................................................I Final Draft .............................................................................................................................................i FEBRUARY 14, 2001 ..........................................................................................................................................i ILLUSTRATIVE ATTACK SCENARIOS ................................................................................................................. 3 “CONVENTIONAL” MEANS OF ATTACK ............................................................................................................ 6 WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION ................................................................................................................... 7 CHEMICAL WEAPONS AS MEANS OF ATTACK ................................................................................................. 15 The Impact and Variety of Possible Chemical Weapons ............................................................................... 15 The Probable Lethality and Effectiveness of Chemical Attacks..................................................................... 17 Methods of Delivery.................................................................................................................................... 21 Detection and Interception .......................................................................................................................... 22 Acquiring Chemical Weapons ..................................................................................................................... 23 The Impact of Technological Change........................................................................................................... 26 The Aum Shinrikyo Case Study.................................................................................................................... 27 Political and Psychological Effects.............................................................................................................. 29 The Problem of Response ............................................................................................................................ 29 BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS AS MEANS OF ATTACK .............................................................................................. 44 Case Studies: Iraq and Russia..................................................................................................................... 51 State Actor, Proxy, and Terrorist/Extremist Incidents to Date ...................................................................... 54 The Yugoslav Smallpox Incident.................................................................................................................. 57 Cases in the US........................................................................................................................................... 58 The Lethality and Effectiveness of Current Biological Weapons ................................................................... 58 Anthrax as a Case Example...................................................................................................................................... 59 Botulism as a Case Example .................................................................................................................................... 61 Plague as a Case Example........................................................................................................................................ 62 Smallpox as a Case Example ................................................................................................................................... 64 Detect, Defend, and Respond to What? .................................................................................................................... 65 Means of Delivery....................................................................................................................................... 66 Manufacturing Biological Weapons............................................................................................................. 68 Changes in Technology and the Difficulty of Manufacture ........................................................................... 72 The Growing Lethality of Biological Weapons and Growing Ease of Manufacture ....................................... 75 Copyright CSIS, all rights reserved. CSIS Homeland Defense: Asymmetric Warfare & Terrorism 2/16/01 Page iv New Types of Biological Weapons............................................................................................................... 76 Changes in Disease: Piggybacking on the Threat from Nature..................................................................... 76 Agricultural and Ecological Attacks ............................................................................................................ 80 The Problem of Response ............................................................................................................................ 84 Funding Half-Measures and False Solutions? ........................................................................................................... 85 The Need for Constantly Updated Net Technical Assessments.................................................................................. 92 Reconsidering the Practical Problems in Defense and Response................................................................................ 93 The Problem of Large-Scale or Highly Efficient Attacks........................................................................................... 94 Other Problems in the Present Response Effort......................................................................................................... 96 Cost-Effectiveness of Real-World Options ............................................................................................................... 98 Bacteria ...................................................................................................................................................... 102 Viruses ....................................................................................................................................................... 102 Toxins......................................................................................................................................................... 102 Arthropods.................................................................................................................................................. 102 Fungi .......................................................................................................................................................... 102 Other .......................................................................................................................................................... 102 RADIOLOGICAL WEAPONS AS MEANS OF ATTACK........................................................................................ 114 The Practical Chances of Using Radiological Weapons............................................................................. 115 The Practical Risks and Effects of Using Radiological Weapons ................................................................ 116 NUCLEAR WEAPONS AS MEANS OF ATTACK ................................................................................................. 119 Lethality and Effectiveness ........................................................................................................................ 120 Is There a Threat from State Actors, Proxies, Terrorists, and Extremists? The Problem of Getting the Weapon ................................................................................................................................................................. 123 The Problem of Delivery ........................................................................................................................... 128 Dealing with the Risk and Impact of Nuclear Attacks................................................................................. 129 Problems in Responding to a Nuclear Attack.........................................................................................................
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