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NHTM19 Model Forecasting Report North Hampshire Transport Model 2019 Model Forecasting Report Hampshire County Council 24 June 2021 Notice This document and its contents have been prepared and are intended solely as information for Hampshire County Council and use in relation to Model Forecasting. Atkins Limited assumes no responsibility to any other party in respect of or arising out of or in connection with this document and/or its contents. This document has 115 pages including the cover. Document history Document title: Model Forecasting Report Document reference: Model Forecasting Report Revision Purpose description Originated Checked Reviewed Authorised Date Rev v1.3 First Draft RM MF BV RM TG, AA, AEA 03.11.2020 submission CS Rev 2.0 Updated following MF AEA TJG AEA 07.06.2021 HCC Comments Rev 3.0 Updated following RM SDG AEA 24.06.2021 HCC Comments Client signoff Client Hampshire County Council Project North Hampshire Transport Model 2019 Job number 5199550 Client signature/date Model Forecasting Report | 1.0 | 24 June 2021 Atkins | NHTM19 Forecasting Report_24June2021 Page 2 of 115 Contents Chapter Page 1. Introduction 8 Report Structure 8 2. Forecasting Approach 9 NHTM19 Base Model Overview 9 Forecasting Scenario 14 Forecasting Approach 14 3. DM Scenario Input Assumptions 16 Introduction 16 Development Sites 16 Highway Schemes Included in the Forecast Network 17 Public Transport Schemes Included in Forecast Network 19 Walk and cycle 20 4. Forecast Network Coding 21 Values of Time and Vehicle Operating Costs 21 Public Transport Fares and Parking Charges 21 Network Coding 22 Updating Bus Run Times 23 5. Future Travel Demand Assumptions 24 Land Use and Trip End Assumptions 24 Goods Vehicles and Car External-External Trips 28 6. Forecast Travel Demand 31 Introduction 31 Trip Matrices 31 Mode Shares 31 Trip Lengths 37 Park & Ride 37 Impact of Public Transport Fares 37 7. Traffic Forecasts 39 Introduction 39 Highway Assignment 39 Public Transport Assignment Outputs 72 Rail Park & Ride 80 VDM convergence 80 8. Summary 81 Summary of the Local Plan Scenario 81 Forecast Travel Demand 81 Assignment Results 82 Going Forward 83 Appendices 84 Appendix A. All Developments Sites 85 Model Forecasting Report | 1.0 | 24 June 2021 Atkins | NHTM19 Forecasting Report_24June2021 Page 3 of 115 A.1. Basingstoke & Deane: Do Minimum Development Sites 85 Appendix B. Highway scheme layouts 89 B.1. Thornycroft Roundabout 89 B.2. Brighton Hill Roundabout & Camrose Link 90 B.3. M3 J9 to J14 91 B.4. N Manydown - West Ham Roundabout 92 B.5. N Manydown - Buckskin Roundabout 93 B.6. N Manydown - Old Kempshott Labe 94 B.7. N Manydown - Roman Way Roundabout 95 Appendix C. Coding details of each development site 96 C.1. Do Minimum Development Site Coding 96 Appendix D. Land Use Assumption Comparison with NTEM 7.2 97 D.1. Introduction 97 D.2. Households Comparison 97 D.3. Jobs Comparison 98 D.4. Workers vs Jobs 98 Appendix E. Delay per kilometre 99 E.1. AM 2019 Base Year 99 E.2. AM 2040 Do Minimum 99 E.3. IP 2019 Base Year 100 E.4. IP 2040 Do Minimum 100 E.5. PM 2019 Base Year 101 E.6. PM 2040 Do Minimum 101 Appendix F. Flow differences 102 F.1. AM – 2040 DM vs 2019 Base Year AODM 102 F.2. IP – 2040 DM vs 2019 Base Year AODM 102 F.3. PM – 2040 DM vs 2019 Base Year AODM 103 Appendix G. Flow bundles for all development sites 104 G.1. 2040 Do Minimum Development Site Flow Bundles 104 Appendix H. Link V/C ratios in the AoDM 105 H.1. AM 2019 Base Year 105 H.2. AM 2040 Do Minimum 105 H.3. IP 2019 Base Year 106 H.4. IP 2040 Do Minimum 106 H.5. PM 2019 Base Year 107 H.6. PM 2040 Do Minimum 107 Appendix I. Turn V/C ratios in the AoDM 108 I.1. AM 2019 Base Year 108 I.2. AM 2040 Do Minimum 108 I.3. IP 2019 Base Year 109 I.4. IP 2040 Do Minimum 109 I.5. PM 2019 Base Year 110 I.6. PM 2040 Do Minimum 110 Appendix J. Link delays in AoDM 111 J.1. AM 2040 Do Minimum vs. 2019 Base Year 111 J.2. IP 2040 Do Minimum vs. 2019 Base Year 111 Model Forecasting Report | 1.0 | 24 June 2021 Atkins | NHTM19 Forecasting Report_24June2021 Page 4 of 115 J.3. PM 2040 Do Minimum vs. 2019 Base Year 112 Appendix K. Change in link speed in AoDM 113 K.1. AM 2040 Do Minimum vs. 2019 Base Year 113 K.2. IP 2040 Do Minimum vs. 2019 Base Year 113 K.3. PM 2040 Do Minimum vs. 2019 Base Year 114 Tables Table 2-1 – Geographical coverage and model functionality by area type 9 Table 2-2 – NHTM19 Trip Purposes 13 Table 2-3 - Segmentation (for each car availability status) 13 Table 2-4 - Number of demand strata for each trip purpose 13 Table 3-1 – Do Minimum Sites with >500 dwellings or jobs, with Windfall Sites 16 Table 3-2 – Committed highway schemes development log 17 Table 3-3 - Highway schemes identified in Section 278 18 Table 3-4 – Public Transport schemes identified from transport assessments 19 Table 4-1 - VoT / VOC values - AM Peak 2040 21 Table 4-2 - VoT / VOC values - Inter Peak 2040 21 Table 4-3 - VoT / VOC values - PM Peak 2040 21 Table 4-4 – Rail Fare Index (Constant Prices, GB) 22 Table 4-5 – Bus Fare Index (Constant Prices, GB) 22 Table 4-6 – Bus runtime factor to convert HAM link time to PTAM bus run time 23 Table 5-1 - Development totals provided by BDBC 24 Table 5-2 – Population vs Jobs Growth in B&D based on provided Developments and NTEM Trends 24 Table 5-3 – NTEM / Census JTW Baseline Assumptions vs NHTM Internal Area Scenario Assumptions 25 Table 5-4 – Base Year vs Scenario Productions by Purpose 25 Table 5-5 - DM: New School Development in North Manydown 27 Table 5-6 - Districts developed for applying DfT RTF growth rates 28 Table 5-7 - Classification of trips between districts used for applying DfT RTF growth rates 29 Table 5-8 - DfT RTF Derived Growth Rates (2019-2040) by Road Type by Vehicle Type 30 Table 6-1 – BY vs DM: Daily P/A Trips by Purpose by Mode 31 Table 6-2 – DM: Mode Share by Purpose, Comparison to Base Year 32 Table 6-3 – DM: 24-hour Production Mode Shares by Sector, Comparison to Base Year, All Purposes 33 Table 6-4 – DM: 24-hour Attraction Mode Shares by Sector, Comparison to Base Year, All Purposes 34 Table 6-5 – DM vs BY: Average Trip Length by Purpose by Mode 37 Table 6-6 - DM vs BY: Rail P&R Patronage by Purpose 37 Table 6-7 – PT Fare Sensitivity Test: Mode Shares by Purpose 38 Table 6-8 – DM to Base Year: Mode Share Difference by Purpose 38 Table 7-1 – Matrix Totals: AM Peak hour (08:00 to 09:00) 39 Table 7-2 – Matrix Totals: Inter-peak average hour (10:00 to 16:00) 39 Table 7-3 – Matrix Totals: PM Peak hour (17:00 to 18:00) 40 Table 7-4 – Sector based Car matrix totals 40 Table 7-5 - Overall network statistics 41 Model Forecasting Report | 1.0 | 24 June 2021 Atkins | NHTM19 Forecasting Report_24June2021 Page 5 of 115 Table 7-6 - AM Peak - Network Statistics 41 Table 7-7 - Inter Peak - Network Statistics 42 Table 7-8 - PM Peak - Network Statistics 42 Table 7-9 – Delay per vehicle kilometre (seconds) 44 Table 7-10 – Length of Road with VC ratio >85% (kilometres) 45 Table 7-11 - AM 2040 Do Minimum - Screenline flow differences 47 Table 7-12 – Inter-peak 2040 Do Minimum - Screenline flow differences 47 Table 7-13 – PM Peak 2040 Do Minimum - Screenline flow differences 48 Table 7-14 – 2040 Do Minimum compared to 2019 Base Year- Key link traffic flows 49 Table 7-15 - Change in traffic flows between the 2019 Base Year and 2040 Do Minimum 52 Table 7-16 – Development site flow bundles 53 Table 7-17 – Link Speeds (kph) by Road Type and Area 65 Table 7-18 - Journey Times on Key Routes - AM Peak 68 Table 7-19 - Journey Times on Key Routes – Inter-peak 69 Table 7-20 - Journey Times on Key Routes – PM Peak 70 Table 7-21 - Link Convergence for 2040 Do Minimum model 71 Table 7-22 – Link Flow Convergence for 2040 Do Minimum model 72 Table 7-23 – Matrix Totals: AM Peak hour (08:00 to 09:00) 72 Table 7-24 – Matrix Totals: Inter-peak average hour (10:00 to 16:00) 73 Table 7-25 – Matrix Totals: PM Peak hour (17:00 to 18:00) 73 Table 7-26 – Sector based PuT matrix totals 73 Table 7-27 – Outbound public transport development trips 74 Table 7-28 – Public Transport Network Statistics 74 Table 7-29 – Rail Station Entries 75 Table 7-30 – Rail Station Exits 75 Table 7-31 – Bus cordon flows 78 Table 7-32 – Bus terminal boardings 78 Table 7-33 – P&R Patronage 80 Table 7-34 – DM: Change in Trips Penultimate and Final Iteration of VDM, by Purpose and Mode 80 Table D-1 - NTEM vs Do Minimum: Sectored 2019-2040 Growth for Households, Population, Workers 98 Table D-2 - NTEM vs Do Minimum: Sectored 2019-2040 Growth for Jobs 98 Figures Figure 2-1 - NHTM19 Model Areas 10 Figure 2-2 - NHTM19 Zones Basingstoke 11 Figure 2-3 - NHTM19 Zones AoDM 11 Figure 2-4 - NHTM19 Zones Rest of UK 12 Figure 2 -5 – Overall Model Forecasting Operation 14 Figure 2-6 - Choice Model Hierarchy 15 Figure 3-1 - Development sites: Do Minimum housing and employment sites provided by BDBC17 Figure 3-2 – Public Transport Forecast Schemes 19 Figure 5-1 - DM vs BY: Change in Total Productions, with DM Housing Developments 26 Figure 5-2 - DM vs BY: Change in Total Output Trip Attractions 27 Model Forecasting Report | 1.0 | 24 June 2021 Atkins | NHTM19 Forecasting Report_24June2021 Page 6 of 115 Figure 6-1 - DM vs BY: Change in % Car Mode Share, 24-hour Productions, All Purposes 35 Figure 6-2 - DM vs BY: Change in % PT Mode Share, 24-hour Productions, All Purposes 36 Figure 6-3 - DM vs BY: Change in % Active (Cycle & Walk) Mode Share, 24-hour Productions, All Purposes 36 Figure 7-1 - NHTM Link Road Type 43 Figure 7-2 - Screenlines and Cordons 46 Figure 7-3 - AM - 2040 Do Minimum compared with 2019 Base Year 50 Figure 7-4 - IP - 2040 Do Minimum compared
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