League Structure Optimization
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Norsk Toppfotball League structure optimization Status: Draft Report, October 31, 2014 HYPERCUBE B U S I N E S S I N N O V A T I O N NORSK TOPPFOTBALL – LEAGUE STRUCTURE OPTIMIZATION Table of Contents Executive summary ................................................................................................................................. 5 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................... 12 1.1 Norwegian football: how to bend the curve? ....................................................................... 12 1.2 Instruments to increase sporting performance .................................................................... 12 1.3 Research questions and scope .............................................................................................. 14 1.4 Structure of the report .......................................................................................................... 14 2 Norwegian football stakeholders .................................................................................................. 16 2.1 Project organisation .............................................................................................................. 16 2.2 Stakeholders and experts ...................................................................................................... 16 2.3 Perception of the current state of Norwegian football......................................................... 17 2.4 Objectives and how to get there ........................................................................................... 20 3 Calendar ........................................................................................................................................ 22 3.1 Available match dates ........................................................................................................... 22 3.2 Summer or winter season ..................................................................................................... 23 3.3 A combined approach with Tippeligaen and NM Cup ........................................................... 24 4 The economics of Norwegian football .......................................................................................... 26 4.1 The sports economics cycle ................................................................................................... 26 4.2 Sporting quality ..................................................................................................................... 28 4.3 Benchmark groups ................................................................................................................. 31 4.4 Attendance ............................................................................................................................ 34 4.5 TV audience ........................................................................................................................... 36 4.6 Revenues ............................................................................................................................... 41 4.7 Costs ...................................................................................................................................... 42 4.8 Impact of improving sporting performance .......................................................................... 43 4.9 Comparison with other countries ......................................................................................... 44 5 Result dimensions ......................................................................................................................... 48 6 The pyramid structure ................................................................................................................... 50 6.1 Alternatives ........................................................................................................................... 50 6.2 Results ................................................................................................................................... 51 6.3 Conclusions ............................................................................................................................ 51 7 Evaluation of the current competition format .............................................................................. 54 7.1 Round-robin with 16 teams ................................................................................................... 54 7.2 Strengths and weaknesses .................................................................................................... 54 7.3 Guiding principles when designing alternatives .................................................................... 55 8 Evaluation of alternative competition formats ............................................................................. 57 8.1 Alternative formats ............................................................................................................... 57 8.2 Results ................................................................................................................................... 61 9 Conclusions and recommendations .............................................................................................. 70 9.1 Pyramid structure .................................................................................................................. 70 9.2 League format ....................................................................................................................... 72 9.3 Summer or winter season ..................................................................................................... 75 9.4 Transition season ................................................................................................................... 75 2 NORSK TOPPFOTBALL – LEAGUE STRUCTURE OPTIMIZATION Appendix I. Glossary .............................................................................................................................. 78 Appendix II. Impact of the Fair Play Ticket ............................................................................................ 81 Appendix III. Performance of Norwegian clubs in Europe .................................................................... 82 Appendix IV. Average age of selections throughout Europe ................................................................ 83 Appendix V. Impact of artificial turf on sporting results ....................................................................... 84 Appendix VI. Betting .............................................................................................................................. 85 Trends and developments ................................................................................................................. 85 Critical success factors ....................................................................................................................... 85 Appendix VII. Alternative formats ......................................................................................................... 87 Round Robin formats ........................................................................................................................ 87 Belgium type formats ........................................................................................................................ 87 Portugal type formats ....................................................................................................................... 88 Split model formats ........................................................................................................................... 88 3 NORSK TOPPFOTBALL – LEAGUE STRUCTURE OPTIMIZATION Sum- mary 4 NORSK TOPPFOTBALL – LEAGUE STRUCTURE OPTIMIZATION Executive summary Norway is a very sport-minded country. Football and the winter sports are very popular. But Norwegian football has seen a downward trend in the past couple of years. Sporting results on the international stage have fallen. The national team qualified for the FIFA World Cup in 1998, and for UEFA EURO Nations Cup in 2000, but not since. And while Norway was listed 18th on the UEFA Country Ranking in 2007, it is now only on 27th position. The last time a Norwegian club qualified for UEFA Champions League Group Stage was back in 2007/08, by Rosenborg BK. Things could clearly be better and there’s a loud and clear call to action. There are several instruments to increase the sporting performance of both the league as well as the national team. The instruments can be divided in four categories: Increase revenues of professional football Better allocation of money to the cost departments Alter the licensing criteria at different levels Improve the competition model This report describes the project that investigated the last bullet: which pyramid structure and which competition format are best for Norwegian football? Another important question was concerned with the calendar: would it be better to change to a winter season? Norwegian football stakeholders The project was commissioned by TFU, representing both the NFF and NTF. A working group was re- sponsible for conducting the project, and consisted of representatives from the leagues, the clubs, Toppfotballsenteret, Football media and was supported by Hypercube. Also, much valuable input has come from the conversations with stakeholders and experts. We inter- viewed many people