Shifts in Social and Political Attitudes of Central Asians Going Abroad —A Quasi-Experimental Design in Kyrgyzstan
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‘AMERICA OR RUSSIA? WORK OR STUDY?’ SHIFTS IN SOCIAL AND POLITICAL ATTITUDES OF CENTRAL ASIANS GOING ABROAD —A QUASI-EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN IN KYRGYZSTAN A Thesis Presented to the MA Programme of the OSCE Academy in Bishkek in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Arts in Politics and Security by Gulbadam Madanbekova December 2018 The OSCE Academy in Bishkek STATEMENT OF THESIS APPROVAL The MA Thesis of Gulbadam Madanbekova has been approved by the following: Payam Foroughi, Thesis Supervisor 7 December 2018 Date Approved Elena Kim, Defense Committee Chair 7 December 2018 Date Approved Svetlana Dzardanoava, Academic Coordinator 7 December 2018 Date Approved Alexander Wolters, OSCE Academy Director 7 December 2018 Date Approved i ABSTRACT This Thesis analyzes the various influences of foreign exchange programmes in the United States of America and the Russian Federation on the socio-political worldviews and values of their participants from Central Asia—with the case study of Kyrgyzstan. The Thesis compares implications of U.S.- and Russia-sponsored educational programmes as opposed to self-financed work visa stays on participant worldviews. Utilizing a quasi-experimental design and focus groups (FGs, N=10), shifts in social and political attitudes of Kyrgyzstanis who had been abroad were studied by analyzing their views on the social issues of: women’s rights, LGBT rights, and ethnic pluralism. In addition, political views, specifically the level of pro- American and pro-Russian sentiments of participants were gauged. The quasi- experimental design entailed eight experimental FGs and two control FGs (made up of four to five participants per FG). The study determined that participation in state- sponsored educational exchange programmes in the U.S. increases the level of liberal socio-political worldviews of participants as compared to similar programmes in Russia and as compared to worldviews of Kyrgyzstanis who have never been abroad. The study also found that participation in self-financed work visa stays in the U.S. and participation in state-sponsored educational programmes and self-financed work programmes in Russia do not influence the level of liberal socio-political views of participants. The study further found that pro-American sentiments are prevalent only for the U.S.-sponsored educational exchange participants (as opposed to self-financed work visa stay participants). On the whole, all participants in the FGs came up to be pro-Russian, however, pro-Russian views appeared to also be higher for Kyrgyzstanis who participate in state-sponsored educational programmes in Russia. ii ACNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to express my deep appreciation and gratitude to my supervisor and mentor Dr. Payam Foroughi for his valuable suggestions and constructive critique of this research work. If not for his patient guidance and supportive encouragements, I would never have been able to complete this Thesis. I would also like to offer my thanks to Dr. Lance Tillman, who helped me to enhance my writing skills, and gave me confidence. Special thanks should be extended to the OSCE Academy and the Aleksanteri Institute. The OSCE Academy granted me a generous scholarship and an opportunity to improve my knowledge in Politics and Security. The Aleksanteri Institute, the Finnish Centre on Russian and Eastern European Studies, gave me the chance to undertake an internship in an environment highly favorable for research. It would not be right if I exclude my fellows and peers of the OSCE Academy. Their readiness to help and support in critical moments was a huge motivation and inspiration. I am thankful for the friends that I made during my studies at the Academy. I cannot stop thanking my parents, Toktorali and Gulzat. Their never-ending support and love have encouraged me to be a better version of me, and to try my best in any undertaking. This Thesis is dedicated to my parents, who are my rock, my steady, guiding light. iii CONTENTS STATEMENT OF THESIS APPROVAL ................................................................... i ABSTRACT.............................................................................................................. ii ACNOWLEDGEMENTS ........................................................................................ iii LIST OF TABLES ................................................................................................... vi ABBREVIATIONS ................................................................................................. vii Chapter I: INTRODUCTION .................................................................................... 1 Background ......................................................................................................... 1 Research question ................................................................................................ 7 Theoretical framework......................................................................................... 7 Hypotheses .......................................................................................................... 8 Methodology ....................................................................................................... 9 Research significance ........................................................................................ 10 Research limitations .......................................................................................... 11 Chapter II: A NOTE ON METHODOLOGY........................................................... 12 Quasi-experimentation ....................................................................................... 12 Focus groups ..................................................................................................... 16 Chapter III: LITERATURE REVIEW ..................................................................... 17 American public diplomacy and soft power ....................................................... 18 Studies of American public diplomacy ...................................................... 23 U.S. Exchange programmes and public diplomacy .................................... 25 Russian public diplomacy and soft power .......................................................... 31 Tools of Russian soft power ...................................................................... 33 Anti-Americanism in Russian public diplomacy ........................................ 36 Post-Soviet space in Russian public diplomacy .......................................... 36 Russian educational exchange programmes ............................................... 42 Exchange programmes for Kyrgyz citizens ........................................................ 45 Conclusion ........................................................................................................ 50 Chapter IV: FINDINGS AND ANALYSIS ............................................................. 52 Analyses of H1, H2, H3 ....................................................................................... 53 Liberal socio-political worldviews ..................................................................... 53 Cross-border experience of Kyrgyz citizens in the U.S. ..................................... 55 Influence sponsored educational exchange programs in the U.S. ................ 55 Influence of self-financed work visa stays in the U.S. ................................ 61 Cross-border experience of Kyrgyz citizens in Russia ........................................ 67 Influence of sponsored educational exchange programs in Russia .............. 67 iv Experience in self-financed work visa stays in Russia (FGs#7 and FG#8) .. 72 Control groups (Kyrgyz citizens who have never been abroad) .................. 75 H1: Results ........................................................................................................ 79 H2 and H3: Results ............................................................................................. 81 Analysis of H4 ................................................................................................... 82 Pro-Russian and pro-American sentiments ......................................................... 82 U.S. sponsored educational and self-financed work programmes ............... 84 Russia sponsored educational and self-financed work visa stays ................ 87 Chapter V: CONCLUSIONS ................................................................................... 91 REFERENCES ....................................................................................................... 97 APPENDIX A: LIST OF FOCUS GROUPS ..........................................................104 v LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Groups of people studied in the quasi-experimental research .......... 14 Table 2: Questions posed to FGs .................................................................. 53 vi ABBREVIATIONS CIS Commonwealth of Independent States EU European Union FG Focus group Flex Future Leaders Exchange programme GRF Government of the Russian Federation GoK Government of Kyrgyzstan GWoT Global war on terror IR International Relations LGBT Lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender MFA Ministry of Foreign Affairs NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization NGO Non-governmental organization Rossotrudnichestvo Russian Cooperation Agency SCO Shanghai Cooperation Organization UN United Nations U.S. United States (of America) UGRAD Global Undergraduate Exchange Programme UNESCO UN Educational, Scientific