The number of births in Wellington City are derived by multiplying age specific fertility rates of women aged 15-49 by the female population in these age groups for all years during the forecast period.
Birth rates are especially influential in determining the number of children in an area, with most inner urban areas having relatively low birth rates, compared to outer suburban or rural and regional areas. Birth rates have been changing, with a greater share of women bearing children at older ages or not at all, with overall increases in fertility rates. This can have a large impact on the future population profile.
Forecast fertility rates (births per woman) Wellingto Year Chang n City e betwe en 2017 and 2043 Area 2017 2043 Number Wellingto 1.45 1.45 +0.01 n City Aro Valley 1.11 1.14 +0.04 - Highbury Berhampo 1.97 1.94 -0.03 re Brooklyn 1.52 1.49 -0.03 Churton Park - 1.95 1.94 -0.02 Glenside Grenada Village - Paparangi - 2.61 2.48 -0.14 Woodridg e - Horokiwi Hataitai 1.60 1.60 -0.01 Island Bay 1.59 1.57 -0.02 - Owhiro
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Census of Population and Housing 2011. Compiled and presented in atlas.id by .id, the population experts. Bay Johnsonvil 1.94 1.89 -0.05 le Kaiwhara whara - Khandalla 1.61 1.58 -0.03 h - Broadmea dows Karori 1.73 1.74 +0.01 Kelburn 1.02 1.05 +0.02 Kilbirnie - Rongotai - 1.24 1.22 -0.02 Moa Point Kingston - Morningto 1.41 1.39 -0.01 n - Vogeltown Lyall Bay 2.32 2.28 -0.04 Miramar - 1.86 1.85 0 Maupuia Mt Cook 0.74 0.90 +0.16 Mt 0.75 0.78 +0.04 Victoria Newlands - 1.84 1.77 -0.07 Ngaurang a Newtown 1.53 1.50 -0.03 Ngaio - Crofton 2.13 2.10 -0.03 Downs Northland 1.22 1.21 -0.01 - Wilton Ohariu - Makara - 1.98 1.92 -0.05 Makara Beach Roseneath - Oriental 0.93 0.99 +0.06 Bay Seatoun - Karaka 1.59 1.59 0 Bays - Breaker
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Census of Population and Housing 2011. Compiled and presented in atlas.id by .id, the population experts. Bay Southgate - Houghton 1.62 1.59 -0.03 Bay - Melrose Strathmor 1.99 1.98 -0.01 e Park Tawa - Grenada North - 2.12 2.09 -0.03 Takapu Valley Te Aro 0.79 0.88 +0.09 Thorndon 0.92 1.00 +0.08 - Pipitea Wadestow 1.46 1.44 -0.02 n Wellingto 1.35 1.48 +0.13 n Central Forecast fertility rates (births per woman) Wellingto Year Chang n City e betwe en 2017 and 2043 Area 2017 2043 Number Wellingto 1.45 1.45 +0.01 n City Aro Valley 1.11 1.14 +0.04 - Highbury Berhampo 1.97 1.94 -0.03 re Brooklyn 1.52 1.49 -0.03 Churton Park - 1.95 1.94 -0.02 Glenside Grenada 2.61 2.48 -0.13 Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Census of Population and Housing 2011. Compiled and presented in atlas.id by .id, the population experts. Village - Paparangi - Woodridg e - Horokiwi Hataitai 1.60 1.60 -0.01 Island Bay - Owhiro 1.59 1.57 -0.02 Bay Johnsonvil 1.94 1.89 -0.05 le Kaiwhara whara - Khandalla 1.61 1.58 -0.03 h - Broadmea dows Karori 1.73 1.74 +0.01 Kelburn 1.02 1.05 +0.02 Kilbirnie - Rongotai - 1.24 1.22 -0.02 Moa Point Kingston - Morningto 1.41 1.39 -0.01 n - Vogeltown Lyall Bay 2.32 2.28 -0.04 Miramar - 1.86 1.85 -0.01 Maupuia Mt Cook 0.74 0.90 +0.16 Mt 0.75 0.78 +0.04 Victoria Newlands - 1.84 1.77 -0.07 Ngaurang a Newtown 1.53 1.50 -0.03 Ngaio - Crofton 2.13 2.11 -0.03 Downs Northland 1.22 1.21 -0.01 - Wilton Ohariu - 1.98 1.93 -0.05 Makara -
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Census of Population and Housing 2011. Compiled and presented in atlas.id by .id, the population experts. Makara Beach Roseneath - Oriental 0.93 0.98 +0.05 Bay Seatoun - Karaka Bays - 1.59 1.59 0 Breaker Bay Southgate - Houghton 1.62 1.59 -0.03 Bay - Melrose Strathmor 1.99 1.98 -0.01 e Park Tawa - Grenada North - 2.12 2.09 -0.03 Takapu Valley Te Aro 0.79 0.87 +0.09 Thorndon 0.92 1.00 +0.08 - Pipitea Wadestow 1.46 1.44 -0.02 n Wellingto 1.35 1.47 +0.13 n Central
Death rates
The forecast number of deaths in Wellington City is a reflection of death rates assumed for small areas. For historical years, this will equal the number of deaths published by the ABS, where this information was available at the time of forecasting. These rates are based on historical estimates for Wellington City, which have been extrapolated into the future, assuming an increase in expectation of life in all age groups (except 85 years and over).
Death rates are influential in shaping the numbers of older people in an area's population. Death rates too have been changing, with higher life expectancy at most ages, with men's life expectancy increasing more than that of women.
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Census of Population and Housing 2011. Compiled and presented in atlas.id by .id, the population experts.