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Engines of Growth Essays in Swedish Economic History Berger, Thor 2016 Document Version: Publisher's PDF, also known as Version of record Link to publication Citation for published version (APA): Berger, T. (2016). Engines of Growth: Essays in Swedish Economic History. 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LUND UNIVERSITY PO Box 117 221 00 Lund +46 46-222 00 00 Engines of Growth Essays in Swedish Economic History Thor Berger LUND STUDIES IN ECONOMIC HISTORY 78 Thor Berger Engines of Growth Essays in Swedish Economic History Sweden experienced a remarkable economic transformation between the 18th century and the outbreak of World War I. This dissertation consists of four self-contained papers that uses a quantitative empirical approach to identify key drivers of this transformation by analyzing the contribution of the potato to economic growth, the determinants of the early investments in mass schooling, and how the rollout of the national railroad network shaped rural and urban growth patterns from the mid-19th century to the present day. Together, the findings of this dissertation contribute novel evi- dence on the causal determinants of Sweden’s acceleration in growth and also shed light on the historical roots of contemporary patterns of regional and urban development. Distribueras av Media-Tryck, Lunds universitet Box 117, 221 00 Lund [email protected] ISSN: 1400-4860 ISBN: 978-91-87793-28-8 9 789187 793288 Engines of Growth Essays in Swedish Economic History Thor Berger © Thor Berger 2016 School of Economics and Management Department of Economic History ISBN 978-91-87793-28-8 ISSN 1400-4860 Printed in Sweden by Media-Tryck, Lund University Lund 2016 Acknowledgements A dissertation does not get written without one incurring many debts to many people. Kerstin Enflo has been an outstanding supervisor providing endless advice, encouragement, and support throughout my time as a PhD student. I am also very grateful to Martin Henning, who has been my assistant supervisor providing crucial feedback on my work. Lennart Schön initially served as my main supervisor but sadly passed away during the writing of this dissertation, which constituted an unfathomable loss to us all. My work has been funded by the Crafoord Foundation, the Swedish Research Council, and the Wallenberg Foundation and their generous financial support is gratefully acknowledged. At my final seminar, Anders Nilsson and Joan Rosés provided extremely valuable comments and suggestions that improved the dissertation, while Martin Dribe and Patrick Svensson guided me through the process leading up to that seminar as the directors of the PhD programme. The Department of Economic History in Lund has been an extraordinary place to work not least due to the diligent management of Anneli Nilsson Ahlm, Birgit Olsson, Kristin Fransson, Mats Olsson, and Tina Wueggertz, as well as the many PhD students and post docs that have made these past years something that I will always remember warmly. I am particularly grateful for having shared the daily grind with Hana Nielsen, as I could not imagine anyone better to share the inevitable ups and downs of academic life with. A final heartfelt thank you is due to my family for their infinite care, love, patience, and support—without them, none of this would have been possible. Lastatorpet, August 2016 Contents List of papers 8 Introduction 9 Overview 9 Background: historical perspectives on regional development 11 Why study regions? 11 Sources of regional growth 13 Historical context 20 Sweden’s economic transition prior to World War I 20 Regional growth patterns during industrialization 25 Causes of catch-up: external vs. internal factors 28 Sources 30 Summary of papers 33 Conclusions 37 References 40 List of papers I. Berger, Thor. 2016. Geography and growth: Evidence from the potato’s introduction in pre-industrial Sweden. Unpublished manuscript. II. Andersson, Jens, and Berger, Thor. 2016. Elites and the expansion of education in 19th-century Sweden. Unpublished manuscript. III. Berger, Thor. 2016. Railroads and rural industrialization: Evidence from a historical policy experiment. Unpublished manuscript. IV. Berger, Thor, and Enflo, Kerstin. 2016. Locomotives of local growth: The short- and long-term impact of railroads in Sweden. Journal of Urban Economics, forthcoming. 8 Introduction Overview Sweden was a poor and underdeveloped country in the early 19th century. Workers earned real wages well below those of their British, French, or German counterparts, with most of the population trailing just above subsistence. Agricultural activities employed more than 90 percent of the population and less than one in ten lived in a city, most of which would more accurately have been described as small towns or villages. A century later, the economy had undergone a fundamental transformation as Sweden emerged as a modern industrial nation placing it on a trajectory to becoming one of the richest countries in the world. A central contribution of this dissertation is the use of historical data combined with a quantitative empirical approach to identify key drivers of growth during Sweden’s economic transformation. To isolate the impacts of these growth determinants the analysis exploits regional data and quasi- experimental methods, which aligns with a recent methodological shift in economic history and related fields towards using natural experiments to identify causal relationships (Diamond and Robinson, 2010). As one of the remarkable success stories of the 19th-century Atlantic economy, Sweden constitutes a puzzling example of an initially backward country that managed to converge with the leading industrial economies within a few generations. Accounting for this catch-up requires statistical evidence on causal factors that can explain the acceleration in growth, which arguably constitutes a key task for Swedish economic historians. Moreover, given the country’s extreme cultural, ethnic, and religious homogeneity the regional development of the Swedish economy provides a particularly useful historical laboratory to cleanly identify such growth determinants, which may carry implications far beyond the writing of Swedish economic history. The dissertation consists of an introductory chapter that mainly provides an overview of Sweden’s economic transition from a variety of perspectives and four self-contained papers that study different aspects of this transformation 9 between the mid-18th century and the outbreak of World War I. Specifically, paper 1 examines the relationship between agricultural productivity increases and economic growth by quantifying the impacts of the potato’s introduction in the early 19th century on living standards and population growth, which shows that the diffusion of the potato was an important catalyst of the Swedish population explosion that would characterize the economic and social developments for the remainder of the century. Paper 2 asks how Sweden managed to maintain a level of human capital and schooling that was wildly out of proportion to the country’s level of economic development with a political system that enabled economic and political elites to capture the political process and block investments in schooling for the masses. Analyzing the determinants of investments in elementary education, however, shows that local elites were instrumental in advancing mass schooling prior to Sweden’s industrial breakthrough, which furthers our understanding of how the “impoverished sophisticate” came into being. In the final two papers, I quantify the impact of the railroad on rural development and its short- and long-term impacts on urban growth respectively. Although the rollout of the railroad network caused an accelerated pace of population growth and structural transformation in rural communities traversed by the state railroads, these gains were confined to the initially most developed areas thus exacerbating spatial inequalities. As shown in the final paper, the historical railroads also constituted a shock to the spatial equilibrium of the urban economy that still shapes the size distribution of Swedish cities today. A unifying theme of the papers is a regional perspective on the growth process and in the next section I consequently motivate a regional approach by arguing that growth in the 19th century unfolded along regional lines and that the vast income differences that opened up within nations prior to World War I are challenging to reconcile with explanations that mainly emphasize national factors. A selective review of the related literature on historical regional