Appraisal of Sebou Il Development Project Kingdom of Morocco

ReportNo. 429a-MOR ILE C y Appraisalof SebouIl DevelopmentProject

Public Disclosure Authorized Kingdomof Morocco une10,1974 FILECOPY RegionalProjects Department Europe,Middle Eastand North Africa RegionalOffice Not for Public Use Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Documenftof the Intemational Rank for Reconstructionand Developnent International Development Association

This *eport was prepared for official use only by the BanklCroup.-lt Maynot be published, -quoted or cited without Bank Croup authorization The %nk Croup does not accept responsibility fior the accuracyor completenessof the report. CURRENCYEQUIVALENTS

US$ 1.00 - Moroccan dirham (DH) 4.08 US$ 1.00 = French francs (FF) 4.99 DH 1.00 = US$ 0.245 DH 1.00 = FF 1.223

WEIGHTS AND MEASURES 1 millimeter (mm) 0.039 inches (in.)

1 hectare (ha) - 2.47 acres 1 kilometer (km) = 0.62 mile 1 square meter (m2) = 10.76 square feet 1 cubic meter (m3) = 35.31 cubic feet 1 cubic meter per second (m3/sec) 35.31 cu secs 1 kilogram (kg) = 2.205 pounds 1 metric ton (m ton) = 2,205 pounds 1 bar = 14.666 eounds/square inch

1 hectolitre (hl) - 26.5 US gallons ABBREVIATIONS

BNDE - IndustrialDevelopment Bank (BanqueNationale pour le DeveloppementEconomique) CLCA - AgriculturalCredit Bank CMV - Development Center (Centre de Mise en Valeur) CNCA - National Agricultural Credit Bank (CaisseNationale de Credit Agricole) DMV - DevelopmentDepartment of MARA (Directionde Mise en Valeur) DRA - Department of Agricultural Research (Directionde Recherche Agricole) EAPD - World Bank Economic Analysis and ProjectionsDivision MARA - Ministry of Agriculture and Agrarian Reform (Ministered'Agriculture et de Reforme Agraire) NEDECO - NetherlandsEngineering Consultants O & M - Operation and Maintenance ONT - National Transport Office ORMVA - Regional AgriculturalDevelopment Office under DMV (OfficeRegional de Mise en Valeur Agricole) ORMVAG - Rharb Regional AgriculturalDevelopment Office (OfficeRegional de Mise en Valeur Agricole de Gharb) SODEA - Farm Development Corporation SOGETA - AgriculturalLand Management Corporation SUNACAS - Sebou National Sugarcane Factory Company (SucrerieNationale de Canne du Sebou)

GOVERNMENTOF THE KINGDOM OF MOROCCO FISCAL YEAR January 1 to December 31 KINGDOM OF MOROCCO

SEBOU II DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page No.

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS ...... i.-i

I. INTRODUCTION ...... se..** t..

II. BACKGROUND ...... ,***..* ......

General es...... 1 C imate . . 0*...... * 22. Land Use ....,2 Land Ownership and Land Reform ...... 2 Agriculture in the Economy ...... 3 Irrigation in the A3ricultural Sector ...... 3 Agricultural Inputs and Services ...... 4 Previous Bank Projects ...... 4

III. THE PROJECT AREA ...... 5

General ses ...... 0...... se 5 Topography and Soils te* ...... 5 Floods and Surface Drainage ...... 5 Population ...... 6 Land Tenure ...... a. 6 Traditional Agriculture ...... 7 Agriculture Under Sebou I ...... 7 Processing ...... 8 Markets ...... *..... e... e * e e * ...... *...... 8 Communications and Transport ...... 8...... 8 Credit * ...... 9 Agricultural Support Services ...... 9

This report is based on informationsupplied by the Moroccan Government, including studies made by consultants,and on the findings of an appraisal mission consistingof Messrs. J.C. Collins and T. Husain, and Ms. S. Fukuda (IBRD) and Dr. P.O. Wiehe and Messrs. J. Dupont, R. Garabiol, J. Megard and J. Boomkamp (Consultants). Messrs. G. LeMoigne and G. Ludwig (IBRD) assisted the mission during its initial meetings with Moroccan Government officials; Mr. M. Carter (IBRD) attended the mission's final meetings. TABLE OF CONTENTS (Continued) Page No.

IV. THE PROJECT ...... 9

Descrîption ...... 6...... 9 Project Works and Services ...... 10 Status of Engineering ...... 10 Cost Estimates ...... *a ...... * a.... 11 Financing ...... Procuremeint ...... 12 Disbursements ...... 12 Accounts and Audit ...... * ...... 13

V. ORGANIZATIONAN4D MANAGEMENT ...... 13

Participating Ministries and Agencies ...... 13 ORMVAG .. ,a...... ,...... **..***.a 14 SUNACAS ... ,15 The Roads Department of the Ministry of Public Works ...... *...... * 16 ProiectCoordination ...... 16 Operation and Maintenance ...... 16 Consulting Services and Training ...... 17 Safetyof the Dam ...... * ...... C ...... 18 Recovery of Costs ..... *...... 18

VI. PRODUCTION,MARKET PROSPECTS, PRICES AND FARMHERS' INCOME .* ..a...... *... *.*...o..... 19

Production ...... ,..... 19 MarketProspects ...... a...... 19 Prices *.. .,...... C...... 20 Farmers' Income ...... ** ...... 20

VII. BENEFITS AND JUSTIFICATION ...... 20

Objectives of the Project ...... 20 Aggregate Economic Return ...... 21

Roads ...... *.. .e e a.... *...... 21 St.>g)arcaneFactory ...... 21 Flood Control * a . e...... 0 *.*.....* * * ...... 21 Employment ...... 22 Environmental Impact ..... *. .O...... 23

VIiI. AGREEMENTS REAChED AND RECOMMENDATIONS ...... 23 ANNEXES

1. Country Data 2. The Need for Flood Control and Long-Term and Interim Protection Alternatives 3. Land Tenure and Agrarian Reform 4. Sugarcane Production 5. Sugarcane Processing 6. Project Works 7. Terms of Reference for Consultants 8. Cost Estimate 9. Estimated Schedule of Disbursements 10. Market Prospects for Sugar 11. Farm Incomes 12. Economic Rate of Return and SensitivityAnalysis

FIGURES

IBRD 8609 ConstructionScliedule IBRD 8610 Proposed OrganiiationDiagram ]IBRD10900 Map - The Project Area IBRD 10899 Map - The Flood Protection Works e KINGDOM OF MOROZCO

SEBOU II DEVELOPMENTPROJECT

SUMN2ARYAND CONCLUSIONS

i. The Government of the Kingdom of Morocco has requested a Bank loan to finance the provision of essential infrastructureand flood protection works in the area being deveioped fcr irrigation under the Rharb Sebou IrrigationProject (Loan 643-MOR) (Sebou I). ii. The project area is in the fertile Rharb Plain, northeast of Rabat. The Idriss I Dam built under Sebou 1 will enable some 90,000 ha to be provided with perennial irrigation,of which 35,200 ha of new irrigatedworks together with drainage and associated on farm developmentworks is being installed, Studies carried out under Sebou I have indicated the need to alter certain parts of it. Modification of the existing sugar beet factory to acconmodate sugarcane has proved impractical so that a separate sugarcane processing factory is needed. The flood hazard Ln the project area has been shown to be appreciably greater than had been expected and the proposal to delay flood protection works until future reservoir constructionon the Ouerra River could provide the necessary flood absorbtion capacity can no longer be entertained. At the same time other changes and cost overruns in the project have absorbed the funds originally allocated for improvementof processing facilities and communicationsin the project area. It is necessary to make full provision for these as well as for flood protection works under a new project. iii. The Sebou Il Development Project would include the following works and services:

(a) Constructionof a new sugarcane factory at Mechra Bel Ksiri;

(b) A consultant study of existing induscrial pollution of the lower Sebou River and, if justified by the study, constructionof a plant to treat effluent from the new sugarcane factory and the existing sugar beet factory at Mechra Bel Ksiri;

(c) Improvementsto about 100 km of primary and secondary roads, and about 330 km of tertiary and unclassifiedaccess roads together with constructionof a new bridge over the Sebou River at Mechra Bel Ksiri;

(d) provision of equipment for maintenance of access roads and for a sugar cane transport study;

(e) Constructionof earth flood protection dikes to protect the 35,200 ha being developed for irrigated agriculture and to confine flood overspill from the Sebou River to three flood escape channels and the resettlementof families living in the channels; (f) Strengtheningof roads and railway tracks in the flood escape channels to prevent damage durîng iloods;

(g) Provision of consultantservices to assist in surveys, design and supervisioncf construictionof the flood protection works, to advise and assist in the expansion of sugarcane production in the project area and to assist in acceptance trials of the sugarcane factory;

(h) A consultant study of schîstosomiasisinfestation 7n che Rharb Plain and the possiîbility for its eradication;

(i) Provision of fellowships to supplement on-the-job training of personnel. iv. The total cost of the project is estimated at US$53.7 million, of which US$32 million is the estimated foreign exchange cost. A Bank loan of US$32 million is proposed. v. A contract for constructionof the sugarcane factory (US$17 million) hlasalready been signed following procurement on the basis of international competitivebidding satisfactoryto the Bank. Civil works contracts and procurement of equipment and materials for the other components of the project would be on the basis of internationalcompetition in accordancewith Bank guidelines. vi. The new sugarcane factory would be managed by the newly established National Sebou Sugarcane Factory Company (SUNACAS),a public company responsible to the Department of Industry of the Ministry of Commerce, Industry, Mines and Merchant Marine. The Director of SUNACAS was confirmed in his appointmentby the Minister in November 1973 and appears suitably qualified and experiencedand capable of carrying out his responsibilitiesin relation to the constructionand bringing into operation of the new factory. In view of Morocco's already established sugar beet processing industry, no difficulty is anticipatedin recruiting sufficient trained and experienced technicians for the initial staffing of the factory. Consultantswould be required to assist SUINACASduring factory acceptance trials. vii. Constructionand maintenance of the flood protection works and improvement of the tertiary and farm access road network will be the responsibility of the Rharb Regional AgriculturalDevelopment Office (ORMVAG),which has been responsiblefor all irrigation,drainage and on farm developmentworks under Sebou I. Though lack of continuity in management liasbeen a problem inithe past, ORNVAG's constructionachievement has been satisfactory. With tiheprovision of consultantsto assist in areas where local expertise is not available and/or insuffîcient,the organizationwould be capable of undertaking the additional responsibility. - iii- viii. The Roads Department of the Ministry of Publie Works would be responsible for the improvement and maintenance of primary and secondary roads. The Department has recently completed a Bank-financed highway project and is adequately staffed and equipped to undertake the works required under the project. ix. Government fixed prices, based on sugarcane quality, to be paid to farmers would provide an adequate incentive to ensure a sufficient supply of sugarcane for the factory and are not out of line with projected world market prices for sugar. Because of the expected continued high prices of sugar on world markets and the high costs of freight, together with the opportuni- ties for employment and the potential for foreign exchange savings created by a sugar industrv, the Moroccan Government's decision to expand sugar production aimed at eventual self sufficiency is justified. x. The aggregate economic rate of return for the Sebou II Development Project is 15% and that for the sugarcane factory is 16% calculated on the basis of the latest projected world price for sugar. No separate economic analysis for roads improvement was attempted as the project essentially ac- celerates a roads investment program necessary to meet normal traffic increase. xi. The rate of return on the flood protection works was estiate6td be 11%, using average annual estimates of flood damage made by consultants. The rate cf return approach does not, however, provide a really satisfactory assessment of flood protection due to the uncertaintv in projecting damage without the project on the basis of the frequency distribution for past flood observations. An alternative approach was developed in which the expected flood damage arising during the next 20 years from floods of magnitudes expected to recur with a 1 in 5 and 1 in 100 year probability (approximately equivalent to the actual 1965 and 1970 floods, respectively) was estimated. The combined expected damage from both categories of floods is about twelve times the cost of protection works and insurance against such damage would require a yearly premium greater than the cost of protection. Even if the damage due to small floods alone were over-estimated bv a factor of ten, the benefits of flood protection over 20 years would still equal the cost of protection works. xii. During negotiations, appropriate assurances were obtained and the project would be suitable for a Bank loan to finance the foreign exchange costs of US-A32million equivalent. The borrower would be the Governmert of the Kingdom of Yorocco, and the loan would be repaid in 25 years including 5 years' grace. .

. KTNGDOViOF MOROCCO

APPRAISAL OF

SEBOUII DEVELOPMENTPROJECT

I. INTRODUCTION

1.01 The Government of the Kingdom of Morocco has requested a Bank oan of US$32 million to help finance essential infrastructureand flood protection works in the Rharb 1/ Plain now being developed for irrigationunder tne Rharb Sebou IrrigationProject (Sebou I).

1.02 The Rharb Plain includes some of Morocco's most valuable land and water resources. The Sidi Slimane Project financed by Loan 389-MOR (US$17.5 million) in 1964 and Sebou I financed by Loan 643-MOR (US$46.0million) in 1969 were the initial steps by the Bank in developing the areats potential for irrigated agriculture. Sebou I comprised the constructionof the Idriss I Dam storing water for perennial irrigation and the development of some 90,000 ha gross of which about 66% will be irrigated.

1.03 The Sebou Il Development Project would provide for the construction of a factory to process sugarcane cultivated in the newly irrigated land, improve the road network to facilitate transportationof sugarcane and other agriculturalproduce, and provide for the constructionof embankmentsand flood escape channels to protect the area being developed for irrigation from the present serious flood hazard.

1.04 This report is based on informationprovided by the Moroccan authoritiesand their consultantsand the findtngs of an appraisal mission in November 1973, consisting of Messrs. J. C. Collins and T. Hlusainand Ms. S. Fukuda (IBRD); and Dr. P.O. Wiehe and Messrs. J. Dupont, J. Megard, R. Garablol and J. J. Boomkamp (Consultants). Messrs. G. Le Moigne and G. Ludwig (IBRD) assisted the mission during its initial meetings with Moroccan Government officials,and Mr. M. Carter (IBRD) attended its final meetings.

II. BACKGROUND

2.01 General. Morocco has a population of about 16 million wîth an average annual growth of 2.6% during the past decade. Nearly 10 million people, or 65%, live in rural communities. Of the 506,000 km2 estimated land area about 35% is used for agriculture,being about equally divided between crop production and grazing. The remaining 65% comprises mountains, forests and desert areas. See Annex 1 for details on country data.

* 1/ Both spellings Rharb and Gharb are commonly used. 2,02 Ciimate, The west and north coastal areas of Morocco have a Mediterraneantype cliuate. Moist vesterly winds off the Atlantic Ocean brinx winter rains and cool temperatureswhich, however, seldom fall below freezing. Sea breezes temper the summer heat and occasional thunderstorms occur though precipitationduring summer is relatively unimportant. Fur- ther inland the Rif and the Atlas Mountains receive heavy winter rains on their western slopes whiïchf3rm the catchments of the river systems travers- ing the coastal Spain. Beyo:ndthe mountaïns raïnfali is sparse and high sunmmertemperatures prevail, giving rise to arid desert condîtions.

2.03 Land Use. Of the 7.7 nillion ha of land suitable for cultivation, about 6.0 million ha are cultîvated (80%), About 0.85 million ha are equipped for irrigationthough 33% of this receives water only in winter or by flooding and only 40% has modern and efficient perennial irrigation. Grain crops, particularlywheat and barley, comprise about 75% of the total cropped area. Citrus fruits form the largest group of agriculturai exports, with vegetables and wine also being important. Sheep (12 million) and goats (5 million) and to a lesser extent cattle (3 million) subsist on generally poor grazing supplementtedby crop residues and stubble.

2.04 Land Ownership and Land Reform. The traditional land ownership pattern in Morocco is complex. The Koranic principle of equal rights of heirs to land has led to fragmentation of freeholds and to varîous forms of joint ownership. In addition, at the time of Independence in 1956, there were over 900,000 ha of land in foreign hands under three types of title: (i) private freehold, about 627,000 ha; (ii) official settlements, about 250,000 ha comprising land sold to foreigners (mostly French) by the protectorate authorities; and (iii) land primarily used for research purposes, about 31,000 ha. After Independence and till 1963, foreign owners sold back size- able areas of private settlements ta Moroccans; in 1963 such foreign to lMoroccan transfers were made subject to approval by an Administrative Coin- mission with the objective of ensuring that the transfers did not exclusively benefit richer Moroccans. The total land privately transferred to Moroccans, almost all before 1963, was about 290,000 ha. The foreign held land used for research purposes was recovered iumnediatelyfollowing Independence. Of the remaining foreign held land (about 590,000 ha), about 220,000 ha of official settlements were exproprîated in 1963.

2.05 Between Independenceand 1973, 180,000 ha of land recovered from official settlement and the land previously held for research were distributed to small farmers. in 1966 the Agrarian Reform Law was passed and specified the conditions for distribution of land under annual crops. The objective is to provide the recipîentwith a viable family holding capable of producing an income of at least DE 4,000 (US$980) per year. Plantations however could not be efficientlyoperated in smallholdingsand the Farm Development Corpo- ration (SODEA) was established in 1972 to operate these plantations, pending a decision on their long tern future. Private foreign settlements were expropriated in 1973 and some 33'0,000ha were actually recovered, but since legal proceedings are still continuing in the case of 40,000 ha, full recovery will be completed only wlhen these are over. These recovered farms, except some e - 3 - plantationswhich were handed over to SODEA, are presently being managed by the AgriculturalLand Management Cozporation (SOGETA),which was created in 1973 for this purpose. The recovered land under annual crops is to be distributed under the Agrarian Reform Law of 1972 which has replaced,with minor changes, the Agrarian Reform Law of 1966.

2.06 In the areas, mainly irrigated,designated under the Agricultural Investment Code of 1969 as "developmentzones", provision is made for expropriation and reorganizationof land within the zones as weil as for the imposi- tion of approved cropping patterns and cultivation techniquesand the provision of subsidies for production inputs, all in order to maximize the benefits from irrigation.

2.07 Agriculture in the Economy. The annual growth of agriculturalvalue added averaged 5.9% during 1967-72,mainly due to a rapid growth of irrigation, increased use of fertilizerand other inputs and increased productionof high value crops. The long-term growth trend of agriculturewas estimated by the Bank's Economic Mission (1973) to be about 3% per annum, exceeding the population growth rate in rural areas. In 1972, agricultureaccounted for about 27% of GDP (at 1960 prices), and employed about 55% of the labor force; about 30% oifagricultural output was exported. The agriculturaltrade surplus has equal:Ledabout 20% of Morocco's merchandise imports. Morocco's agricultural exports are very much Europe-directed,with France more than 50%.

2.08 Development of Moroccan agriculture has been the responsibilityof the Ministry of Agriculture and Agrarian Reform (MARA) through its Develop- mert Department (DMV) and such public organizationsas the Cereals Trade Office and the Trade and Export Office. The main objectives under the Second Development Plan (1968-72)were the extension of large-scaleirrigation, expansion of credit to large and medium farmers and export promotion. The net effect:of these policies was growth of GDP at about 5.6% per annum, but a widening of income differenceswithin rural areas as well as between rural and urban areas. The latest Bank Economic Mission estimated that "în real terms average consumption declined slowly for about one-third of the rural population". Growth benefits, therefore,accrued mainly to medium and large farmers.

2.09 Irrigation in the Agricultural Sector. The Second Plan's focus on developing irrigationcapacity resulted in distributionworks and on farm development lagging behind constructionof dams and storage reservoirs. A major objective of the Third Plan is to hasten equipment of potentially irrigable areas, to fully utilize the existing storage capacity.

2.10 Under the Second Plan's investmentprogram, 1968-72, DH 2.5 billion was allocated to agriculture,of which 64% was for irrigation,6% for rainfed agricultureand 4% for livestock production,with the remainder ifna miscellaneous category. In the Third Plan, 1973-77, irrigated agriculture will get only 47%, and rainfed agriculture about 10% of the total investment in agriculture. -4-

2,11 Arc u Lts and Services. MARAoperates primari'y through its DN7rwhich is in charge of soîl and crop împrovement, land reform, input supply, provision of credît ard marketing. In designated development zones, the DMV carrîes out îts task through eight Regional Agricultural Development Offices (ORMVA)which are also responsible for assisting small-scale irrigation and rainfed farming in their regions. Elsewhere DMV operates 22 provîn- cial services and about 100 eistrict extension services.

2.12 Previous Bank Proi cts. T'he Bank t s first Loan eor a.gr cuiltur, i1 Morocco was LTS$17.5 million for the Sidi SLimane Irrigatïon Project iL- 1:965 (Loan 389-MOR), The project increased the storage capacity of the El. Kansara reservoir and provided for extension o£ an existiîng îrrigated area served from the dam, Though performance under the project was satisfactory as far as cî- vil -works and agricultural development were concerned, delays arose due to a series of reorganizations wîthin the agricultural and irrigation services. By mid-1967 these problems had been overcome and the project was completed in 1970,

2.13 . In 1966 a loan of US$10 million for an Agricultural Credit Project (Loan 433-MOR) was made to the National Agricultural Credit Bank (CNCA). The loa.l helped finance a three year iendîng program for on £arm developmient and purchase of agriïcultural equipment. Initial progress was disappointing and the loarn was temporarily suspended in 1968 until a mutually satisfactory agreement was reached between the Bank and the Ministry of Finance on a reorganization of the local credit agencies involved in the project. The loan was fully dîsbursed by September 1969,

2s14 A Second Agricultural. Credit ProJect under whiich%NCA will borrow US$10 million from IDA (Credit 338-MOR- over a three year period and a further US$24 million from IBRD (Loan 861-MOR' coNweced in.1972, e projeet will help finance farm equilpment for rainfed grain production, on f arm improvements for cîtrus and winter vegetable production, iivestock development aild n1arket- ing facîlities for export produce. 17he project is progressing satisfactorily.

29 l<. Sebou Itwas fftlanted int7>. 9Q69 (S can 643-MOR). e p rojett prov'ded for construcion of the ldrîiss 1 Dw to store iirrlgatior water for about 90,000 hsa gross and the constructiïn of ¢ew 38,300 ha) and improvement cf existing (500C: ha) rrgation wworks for a fiîrt ph.ase deveLopment of 43,300 ha net, Further stidîes ta more acc:urately ç. cate the irri'gable area and to determine tie most economic means of providing protection frorn f bood damnage have -edu*ed the area to be newLv -Ir' _ated to 35,200 ha. In additioni împrove- ments were to be undertaken i ra:nfed agriculture o.l a zurther 26,700 net. a. con. t).nuv^ of senîor management has been a prs~astent goùlen and tà- îi'Jeities have been exper.enced over proecurement an~ iîn enforce ment by toe project authority of the neti lega- y estalblished cropping patterns. Progress with civl waorks has been 4P general satisfactory and the Dam Las been completed on schedule. Larnd consolidation and redistribution ïs bei-g andertaken throughout the project ar2a egd prov'sioîn has been made for improvement of agricu1tural se^-viîce. -rùads and -non proeessin facelîtîes. '¶4ajorsocial benefîts were expected frorn the redistriob t40 of foreîgn and collectively ovnied lbnd in the project area, but progress wîth redistribution - 5-

has been slow. Because insufficientland is available for distributionwithin the pxrojectarea, the original plan for all existing Moroccan owner farmers and landless in the area to operate at least 5 ha holdings will not be attained. The Moroccan Governnent'sfuture plans for land redistributionin the project area are shown in para. 3.07 and the land ownership pattern in Annex 3.

III. THE PROJECT AREA

3.01 General. The project, which would augment agriculturaldevelopment under Sebou I, is located in the Rharb Plain about 100 km northeast of Rabat (see Map IBRD 10900). Under Sebou I in 1969, an area of 70,000 ha net was selected for development of which about 38,300 ha were to be newly irrigated. This area lies on the left bank of the Sebou River extending from Sidi-Abdel- Aziz downstream to Sidi-Allal-Tapior about 60 km from east to west.

3.02 Topography and Soils. The Rharb Plain is flat (5-15 m above sea level) with slightly raised levees along the river (10-25 m above sea level) resulting from depositionof silt during flooding. The land thus has a very slight slope away from the Sebou River and on the left bank a seasonally flooded depression (merja) occurs about 10-15 km from the river, after which the land slopes very slightly up towards the Wadi Beth which foris the south- west boundary of the project.

3.03 Thé raised areas adjacent to the river consist of fairly well drained alluvial soils and there is in most places a gradual transition to fine textured, poorly drained soils in the merja. Towards the western boundary of the project, the levee soils form a relativelynarrow band on either side of the river and the transitionto poorly drained soils occurs more rapidly over a distance of about 200 m. In this area local pockets of salinity have developed but this problem will be corrected following the in- stallation of subsoil drainage under Sebou I.

3.04 Floods and Surface Drainage. The lower Sebou River, which traverses the project area, drains two distinct catchment areas. The Sebou and its tributary, the Inaouene River, form a catchment on the western slopes of the Middle Altas Mountains where rainfall intensity is moderate and permeable strata retain moisture, resulting in relativelyuniform stream flows and low flood peaks. The Ouerrha River, a major tributary which joins the Sebou as they emerge onto the Rharb Plain, has its catchment on the southern slopes of the Rif Mountains. Here rainfall is more abundant and intense and the eroded and impermeablehill slopes give rise to rapid runoff and flash flooding. Although the Ouerrha catchment is much smaller than that of the Sebou/Inaouene, it is responsible for most of the extreme high river flows into the Rharb Plain (Annex 2). 6-

3.05 The capacity of the lower Sebou River bed declines from3about 3,200 m3 /sec downstream of the Sebcu/Ouerrha confluence to only 1,600 m !sec at !4aatisome 80 kr. further downstream, Ail flows in excess of this lower figure will overtop the river banks at one or more points. This overspill occurs mainly on the left bank (80%) at well defined points and the flood waters flow along natural drainage lînes towards the merja. Here they accu- mulate and spre.d in a tuniform sheet of water covering more or less of the project area depending on the total volume of overspill. The merja is drained vîa the Wadi Beth back into the Sebou. Complete draining oi the merja may take one to two weeks depending on the extent of tne flood.

3.06 Popation. The population of the Sebou I project area was estimated to sbe110,000 in 1973 or about 18,000 familîes, assumîng an average famîly size of 6. With no urban centers within or near the project area, the population is dependent on agriculture for its livelihood which in some fam',lies may be augxented by cash income remitted by members of the family living and working in the dîstant cities.

3.07 Land Redistribution. An.area of 3,450 ha has already been distrîbuted in the Sebou I Project area and a further 14,450 ha remains to be distributed. Of this 4,760 ha consists of ex-foreign owned farms expropriated under the decrees of 1971 and 1973 and 9,690 ha consists of state land in the merja much of which is presently rented out in 10 ha farms for rainfed cropping. Govern- ment' s program for future redistribution is as follows:

Location Area to be Distributed Year of Completion (ha)

Irrigation Sector S11 34C 1974

Irrigation Sectors S13, S17, S9, S7, S5, S3 3,260 1976

Irr:gatîon Sector P7 2,625 1977

Rainfed Area 1,160 1977

Rainfed Area& 7,065 1978

14,450

3e08 A further 5,345 ha recovered from foreign owrners under the 1973 ex:rop>-:iorî is presentlv under lïtigation, When any of thîs la.d becomes Available fo:llowing settlement of the disputed ownershi p government will take the necessary steps for its distrIbution as soon as possible.

3.09 In addition to the above there are about 2,150 ha of ex-foreign owned Dlantations whîich have been recovered. These are presently managed by SODEAand SOGETA, the state owned companies. The Governmnent is presently formulating a long-term policv for the management of these plantations which would ensure that their productivîty i8 maintained while spreading the benefîts le - 7 - from their operation as widely as possible. Until tnis poli cy is determined, these lands will not be distributedas smallholdingsand will remain under the management of SODEA and SOGETA.

3.10 TraditionalAgriculture. Before work began on irrigationdevelopment under Sebou I, rainfed winter wheat was the predominant crop, occupying nearly 60% of the cultivatedarea. Sugar beet, the next importantwinter crcp, representedonly about 4%. Cotton, rice and sunflower, planted in spring, together represented another 4%, whîle 6% of the area comprised privately developed irrigationschemes (5,000 ha) ir.which citrus orchards predomrinated.Vegetables for domestic consumptionmade up the balance of agriculturalproduction. Livestock production was dependent largely on seasonal grazing of the low lying areas subject to winter flooding, grazing of fallow areas, and crop residues.

3.11 Average crop yields were low due to the effects of dry years and to winter and spring floods which destroyed areas of autumn planted crops and, if they occurred in March/April, left little time for land preparation and planting of a replacement crop. Cultivatorsof small and often fragmented farms had inadequateresources and lacked access to credit and other agricultural services. They were restricted to traditionaland inefficient cultivation techniquesusing animal traction,made little use of fertilizers and seldom practiced pest and disease control. Many larger farms under Moroccan ownership used production techniqueslittle more advanced. Some large farms, and especially those under foreign ownership,were farmed by modern methods resulting in yields 50 to 100% greater than those obtained by traditional methods.

3.12 Agriculture under Sebou I. The cropping patterns proposed under Sebou I (Annex 11, Table 4) prescribe for the best drained levee soils a crop rotation comprisingfour years under sugarcane (plant crop and three ratoons), with berseem and cotton in the final year. Further study of sugarcane growth cycles (Annex 4) under local conditions indicates that harvesting every two years would be optimum for most of the project area, thus extending the cropping cycle to eight years under cane. However, for the area upstream of Mechra Bel Ksiri, which is subject to occasional freezing temperatures,harvesting sugarcane ratoon crops annually is preferable, requiring a five year cycle under cane if three ratoon crops are taken. Initial plantings of about 800 ha for the 1975 harvesting season have been made, almost entirely in the zone subject to occasional frost.

3.13 Four or five year arable rotations were recommended for the less well drained areas. The crops comprised sugar beet, wheat, cotton and forage. For the heaviest soils, subject to both impeded drainage and salinÆty, a cropping pattern of four years under alternating summer and wînter crops of rice and berseem with cotton in the fifth year was recommended. For the areas to remain under rainfed agriculture,an intensified cropping pattern of wheat, sugar beet, sunflower and berseem was recommended,but at present a three year rotation of wheat, sugar beet and beans or chickpeas is beîng practiced. Expansion of citrus cultivation from the present 4,500 ha to about 10,800 havwas also provided for. 3.14 Processing. The main processing faciliciesîn arndadjacent to the project area provide for sugar beet processing, cotton ginning and citrus ?acking. Itwosugar beet factories, at Mechra Bel Ksiri and Sidi Allal Tazi, each have a 4,000 ton/day beet capacity and process most of the crop from the project area, the remainder going to a smaller third factory (3,000 ton/day) at Sidi Slimane. Presently, the factories are operating at about 80% capacity. There is one cotton ginnery at Sidl Kacem with an annual capacity of 7,000 tor.(for about six months operation), but present tnroughput is about 2,600 ton per year. There are six citrus packing plants with a total capacity of about 50,000 ton per year.

3.15 Markets, Agriculturai produce is marketed main'y through public organizations. Cereals are purchased by the Cereals Trade Office, cotton by the Moroccan Trading Company for AgriculturalProducts, sugar beet by the sugar factories and fruits and vegetables by the Export Office. Littie produce is sold through local markets. The Government has fixed the farm gate prices for sugar beet, sugarcane, cereals, cotton and milk at levels high enough to encourage domnesticproduction for import substitution, Other farm product prices are not fixed, but are subject to surveÏllance. During 1967-72 at the consumer level, food prices rose by 3.2% per annum, cereal prices by 1.7%, meat prices by 7.5%, and dairy produet prices by 6.7%.

3.16 Communicationsand Transport. The transport sector is also closely regulated by Government. Through the National Transport Office (ONT), Govern- ment controls the licenses for carrier trucks, determines freight rates. assigns cargoes to carriers and issues and collects the bills for services rendered by the carriers. The existing road network comprises main roads, which are maintained by the Ministry of Public Works; bituminous tertiary roads, which are maintained by the Provincial Authority; and other roads, including gravel surfaced tertiary roads and earthroads,wnich are the responsibility of the Rharb Regional Development Office (ORMVAG).

3.17 The main roads RP6, and R.S. 205, 207, 210 and 211 are in fair to good condition but require resurfacing. Traffîc counts have been conducted on RP6 and traffic in 1974 has been estimated at 1,700 vehic'Lesper day including 630 trucks. No counts have been undertaken on the secondary roads but traffic in 1974 is expected to be about 500 vehicles per day including 100 trucks. Growth of traffic in the area is expected to be 9% per year, but this does not make allowance for increased volume of transport for agrîcultural production from the project, which will result in a heavy additional seasonal load.

3.18 The internal network of bituminous tertiary roads was completed in 1967 and is still in good condition except where flood damage remains unrepaired,but resurfacingwill become necessary in the near future. The tertiary gravel and unclassifieddirt roads have received little or no maintenance. e 9

3.19 Credit. CNCA and a local AgriculturalCredit Bank (CLCA) are the principal credit sources for commercialfarmers. Other credit sources are commercialbanks, input suppliers,equipment dealers, and sugar factoriese The non-institutionalmarket provides a substantialamount of seasonal credit, but its magnitude is not known.

3.20 Annual interest rates for agriculturalloans vary from 4% for CLCA to 6% seasonal and 6.5% medîum-term for CNCA. Commercialbanks charge around 8% for seasonal loans.

3.21 Agricultural Support Services. The bulk of inputs is supplied through ORMVAG using credit from CNCA, although private sources of supply are also available in Kenitra. ORMVAG operates the local developmentCenters (CMVs), five of which cover the project area. Machinery is provided on a custom hire basis with a subsidy of 30%, though present policy is to eventually transfer provision of this service to cooperatives. ORMVAG's mechanical equipment is old, and down time is high. Orders for new equipment to be purchased under Sebou I have been placed and delivery is expected by mid 1974. This will enable ORMVAG to meet the seasonal demand for machinery services until such time as alternative sources have been developed.

IV. THE PROJECT

4.01 Description. The objectivesof the project are to protect the areas being developed for irrigationunder Sebou I fron flooding and to provide for the processingof sugarcane to be grown in the area. In addition, the road network would be improved to facilitatetransport of sugarcane and other agriculturalproduce. The flood protectionworks and improvementof access roads would be executed by ORMVAG assisted by consultants and with technical support from the Hydraulic and Roads Departments of the Ministry of Public Works supported by flood control consultants. Improvement of bituminous surfaced primary and secondary roads and constructionof a new bridge over the Sebou River would be executed by the Roads Department of the Ministry of Public Works. Equipment would be provided for subsequentmaintenance of access roads and for a sugar cane transport study. Construction of the sugarcane factory (Annex 5) would be executed by the Sebou National Sugarcane Factory Company (SUNACAS)under the Ministry of Commerce, Industry,Mines and Merchant Marine. Consultantswould be provided to assist ORMVAG in improving sugarcane productionin the project area, to guide ORMVAG in setting up a system for sampling and analysis of farmers' cane, and to advise on sugarcane transportation. Provision would also made for a study by a consultantof pollution of the Sebou River by industrial effluent and for the subsequent construction of an effluent treatment plant, if required, ta control pollution from the new sugarcane and neighboring sugar beet factories.

4.02 To assess the feasibilityof control measures for schistosomiasis in the Rharb Plain as an adjunct to future irrigation developmentworks, a * study by consultantsfor ORMVAG of the present situation and possible control measures has been provided for. 0 -

4.03 Project Works ant Services. These are descrîbed more fully îi Annexes 6 and 7 and would comprise:

(a) construction by May 1975 of a new sugarcane factory at Mechra Bel Ksiri with a capacity of 2,500 ton of sugarcane per day over a six month harvesting season;

(b) improvement of about 30 hz of primary road (RP6> and about 60 km of secondary roads f3S 210,205,211 andt 2907),and the consstruction of a new road bridge over tne Sebou River at Mechra Bel Ksiri;

(d) provision of equipment for maintenance of access roads and for a sugarcane transport study;

(e) studies, final design and construction of earth flood protection dikes to protect the 35,200 ha being developed for irrigated agriculture and to confirne flood overspill from the Sebou River to three flood escape channels; construction of any flow regulating structures necessary in the channels; and the resettlement of familîes living in the channels;

(f) strengthening of roads and railway tracks în the flood escape channels to prevent damage during f loods;

(g) provision of consultant services to assist in surveys, design and supervision of construction of the flood protection works; to assist in the expansiorn of sugarcane production in the Sebou I area; and to assist in acceptance trials of the sugarcane factory;

(h> a consultant study of existîng industrial pollution of the lower Sebou Rîver and, if justî.fied by the study, construction of anieff luent treatment plant to treat effluent of both the existing sugar beet factcry and the new sugarcane factory at Mechra Bel Ksirî;

(1) a consultant study of schistosomiasis infestation in the Rharb Plain and the possibîiity for its eradication; and

(j> provision of fsllows&ips to supplemient on-the,job train-ang of personnel.

4.04 Status of Engïneerïng. The site for the sugarcane factory has been selected, adjacent to the existing sugar beet factory at Mechra Bel Ksîri with which it will share power artdwater supply services. Ground conditions are typical of the Rlharb P'Laln and experience in construction of the sugar beet factory indicates that although adequate building foundations are expensive, there are no problems in their construction. 4.05 A turnkey contract for constructionof the sugarcane factory was signecLon January 22, 1974 between SUNACAS and Societe Fives-Cail-Babcockof France, with the concurrence of the Bank. The contract calls for the factory to be operationalby May 25, 1975 to enable the 800 ha of cane under cultivation to be processed during the 1975 harvest season.

4.06 A comprehensivestudy of the need for road improvementshas already been undertaken in the project area and detailed designs and tender documents have been completed for 30 km of main roads, 8 km of tertiary roads and for Mechra Bel Ksiri Bridge.

4.07 Cost Estimates. The Estimated project cost including price and physical contingenciesis US$53.70 million (DH 219 million), of which the foreign exchange component is US$32 million. Cost estimates for the sugarcane factory are based on a contract price of French francs 50.32 million and DII28.26 million totallingabout US$17 million. The French franc denominated price is firm; the dirham price can be revised in accordancewith an agreed indexing formula. The cost estimates for flood control, bridge and roads are based on unit rates obtained for similar works in Morocco during 1973. Overall contingenciesamount to 34% of basic cost including 11.8% for physical contingencies. Price contingenciesare estimated using average inflation rates of 11%, 8.5% and 6.5% for 1974, 1975 and 1976-80, respectively. The samieinflation rates are assumed for domestic and foreign costs.

4.08 Detailed cost estimates are presented in Annex 8, Table 1, and sum- marizecibelow (discrepanciesare due to rounding):

Percent Local Foreign Total Local Foreign Total Foreign -- DH Million ----- US$ Million Exchange

Sugarcane Factory 13.9 55.5 69.3 3,4 13.6 17.0 80 Roads and Bridge 21.2 21.2 42.4 5.2 5.2 10.4 50 Flood Control 27.7 14.7 42.4 6,8 3.6 10.4 35 Effluent Trgatment Plant 1.2 1.8 3.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 62 Consultants, Studies, Training 1.2 4.9 - 6.1. 0.3 1.2 1.5 80

Subtotal 65.2 98.1 163.4 16.0 24.1 40.1 60

Physical Contingencies 7.7 11e6 19.3 1.9 2.8 4.7 60 Price Contingencies 15.5 20.8 36.3 3.8 5.1 8,9 57

Total Cost 88.4 130.6 219.0 21.7 32.0 53.7 60

4,09 Financing. The Bank loan will finance the full foreign exchange cost of the project, amounting to US$32.0 million, 60X of the total cost. Tne loan will be made to Government and that part for financing the foreign exchange cost of the sugarcane factory will be onlent by the Government to SUNACAS. The local costs of the project will be fully financed by the Government. in - 12- the case of the flood control and roads works the Government vi1l provide its share of the costs through normal budgetary allocations. In the case of the sugarcane factory, the local cost of the plant and all other necessary funds hill be financed from SUNACASt authorized share capital of DH 35 million. Assuranceswere obtained at negotiations that the funds provided under the Bank loan to finance the sugarcane factory would be relent to SUNACAS at an interest rate not less than the rate of înterest on the Bank loan; and that Govern3ent would provide as equity, or on otherwise satisfactory terzDS, the balance required to complete construction of the factory, to cover its pre-o operational costs and ensure the adequacy of îts working capital.. A specîal condition of effectiveness of the loan would be that the Government had completed the financial arrangetientsfor SUNACAS,

4.10 Procurement. Civil works, all equipment and related works for the sugarcane factory were procured internatîonallyin accordance with the Bank's guidelines for procurement. Civil works for flood protection, bridge and roads and all related equipment and equipment for the sugar transport study would be tendered on the basis of internationalcompetitive bidding in accordance with the Bank's guidelines for procurement. Grouping of some civil works items would be necessary to attract foreign bidders. Tender documents for the flood protection and road works would be prepared by the Hydraulic and Roads Departments of the Ministry of Publîc Works and Communicationsres- pectively. Assuranceswere obtained at negotiations that for all flood protection, road and bridge constructioncivil works:

(a) plans, specificationsand other bidding documents would be submitted to the Bank for approval prior to the issue of invitations to bîd; and

(b) a detailed report on the evaluation of bids, approved in the case of flood protection contracts by the Hydraulic Department of the Ministry of Public Works and Communications,and recommendations for award, will be submitted to the Bank for review prior to award of contracts.

A further assurance was obtained at negotiationsthat ORMVAG would group civil works items to be procured as far as practicable in lots of US$1 million equivalent or more.

4.11 Disbursements. The proposed loan of US$32 million would be disbursed, net of taxes' over five years as follows:

(a) 80% of total expendituresfor the sugarcane factory;

(b) 60% of total expendituresfor the effluent plant;

(d) 50% of total expendituresfor civil works for roads and the bridge; -13-

(e) 100% of foreign exchange costs of road maintenance and other equipment;and

(f) 100% of foreign exchange costs of consultantservices and the overseas training of local staff.

4.12 The proposed schedule of disbursementsis gîven in Annex 10. Ex- penditures on on-going constructionof the sugarcane factory would be part of project cost and would be eligible for retroactivefinancîng up to US$2 million. The financial requirementsare:

Calendar Year

1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 Total …US$ million equivalent…------

Source

Local financing 8.60 6.70 3.30 1.40 1.40 0.30 21.70 Bank loan 12.80 9.90 4.80 2.00 2.00 0.50 32.00

Total 21.40 16.60 8.10 3.40 3.40 0.80 53.70

4.13 Accounts and Audit. Assuranceswere obtained at negotiations that ORMVAG and the Ministry of Public Works and Communicationsas appropriate would create separate accounts for the flood control and roads componentsof the project and that audit reports of each account would be submitted to the Bank within six months of the close of each financial year. Further assurances vere obtained that the accounts of SUNACAS would be audited by an auditor acceptable to the Bank and that audit reports would be submitted to the Bank within five months of the close of each financial year.

V. ORGANIZATIONAND MANAGEMENT

5.01 ParticipatingMinistries and Agencies. Responsibilityfor the project works would fall within three Governmentministries: MARA, the Ministry of Public Works and Communications,and the Ministry of Commerce, Industry,Mines and Merchant Marine. Flood protectionworks and improvement of tertiary and unclassifiedaccess roads would be executed for KARA by ORMVAG, which would receive technical assistance from the Hydraulic and Roads Depart- ments of the Ministry of Public Works and Communicationsfor flood control works and roads, respectively. The sugarcane factory is the responsibility of the Ministry of Commerce, Industry, Mines and Merchant Marine. Government has established a corporation,SUNACAS, to undertake constructionand operation . -14- of the factory. The primary and secondary roads in the project and the bridge across the Sebou River would be the responsibility of the Roads Department of the Ministry of Public Works and Communications and the works would be executed bv the Rabat District Office,

5.02 ORMVAG. Agricultural development under Sebou I is the responsibility of ORMVAG under the supervision of keRM 5s DMV. ORMVAG4iS organized into three divisions: Administration, Construct-Lon, and Agricultural Production. To provide a better service to farmers in the area, the present Director of ORMVAG,appointed in late 1973, proposes to reorganize the Agricultural Pro- duetion Division on a crop specific rather than a job specific basis as shown in the Proposed Organization Chart. Thls reorganilzatîon would especiaily facilitate the rapid expansion of sugarcane production, for which specialist knowledge would be required and for wh±ch an extension personnel training program would need to be undertaken. (Terms of Reference for Specialist Consultants are in Annex 7>) Assurances were obtained at negotiations that a reorganization of OVAGs Agrîcultural Production Division would be undertaken in a manner to ensure the effective execution of ORMVAG'ssugarcane development program.

5.03 The Sugar Beet and Sugar Cane Office of ORMVAGwould be responsible for the nurseries providing the farmers wîth planting material and for the inspection and treatment of such material for control of diseases. It would establish the fertilizer requirements of the crop, provide the necessary fertîlizers to the farmers and monitor crop nutrition usîng soi analysis and foliar diagnostic techniques, It woui.d provide technical advice to farmers on uest dîsease and weed control iLeasures and itself undertake contrai :neas- ures in cases when disease outbreaks and pest or weed infestations occur which demand carefully regulated chemïcal controi measures. The Office would have specific responsibility for planning, î`icoordination with SUNACAS and the National Transport Office (ONT), the harvesting and transportation to the factory of farmers canes.

$.O4 During the fîrst cane harvesting seasori in 1975, the Sugar Beet and Sugar Cane Office of OMAG wîi11 experiment with alternative means of cane t ansport:

(a) direct-. transport of canes from f eLd to factory in 8 ton lorrq es 1Loaded on access roads located aiong the long aide of each cane field;

(b) transport of canes from field to a transloading point by 4 ton agricultural tractor trazlers an.d from there to the factory by 20 ton seaî-traLlcrs'. Load-ng of the agrien L.tural trailers wil1 be either by hand or alterratively by mechanical cane loaders from cane wIndrows within the fields.

The decision by OBMVAGon tihe method of canoe transportat i on to be adopted from 1976 onwaredwll depend on the cutcome of thesa exnerimentR. 5.05 Since it is essential that adequate machinery be made available to undertake land preparationduring the next few years, ORMVAG will continue for the time being to operate this service through the equipment centers at Kenitra and Sidi Slimane (para 3.21), For sugarcane cultivation in particularit may prove necessary to undertake specializedmechanical tillage operations for which eqtuipmentwould not ordinarilybe available in a farmer cooperative; thus, during the period of expansion of cane cultivation in the Rharb Plain, ORMVAG would provide such machinery services,

5.06 Flood protectionworks would also be the respons'bilityof ORMVAG's ConstructionDivision, The Division would recaive technicalsupport from the Hydraulic Departmentof the Ministry of Public Works. Under Sebou i a study was undertakenby consultants to the Hydraulic Department (NEDECO) in which alternative long term flood control measures were examined and the economic benefits of interim measures for protection of the project area evaluated. Consultants to the Hydraulic Departmentwould retain responsîbilïtyfor final design and preparationof tender documents. The Hydraulic Departmentwo-ald approve ORMVAG's report on the technical evaluation of bids, prior to its submiss:Lonto the Bank. Continued studies by the consultants for flood protection elsewhere in the Rharb Plain would remain the responsibilityof the HydrauliLcDepartment. An assurance was obtained at negotiations that the Ministry of Public Works would employ consultants to undertake any further studies required in connectionwith the project flood protectionworks and assist in final design and preparation of bidding documents. A further assurance was obtained at negotiations that ORMVAG would engage consultants to assist them in field supervisionof flood protection works.

5.07 SUNACAS. The Corporationwas formed in 1973 with an authorized capital of DH 35 million. Its head office is in the Ministry of Commerce, Industry, Mines, and Merchant Marine. It has broad objectives, including sugarcane processing and manufacture of sugar. The Corporation is to be administeredby a Director responsible to a Board composed of a minimum of six and a maximum of fifteen members. Appointmentof the Director was confirmed by the Minister in Novembhr 1973. The Director of SUNACAS has extensive experiencein sugar beet processingand in finance, having been previously employed by the IndustrialDevelopment Bank (BNDE). He participatedin the preparation of the specificationsand tender documents and in'the analysis of bids for constructionof the sugarcane factory. His performance so far indicates his capability to carry out his managerial functions satisfactorily. As a corporation,SUNACAS also has the capacity to supervise the construction of the factory.

5.08 The Director îs currently being aided by a Technical Director wno would be responsible for management of the factory. Provision has been made for the appointment of an AdministrativeDirector who would be responsible for accounts, stores and personnel management. Assuranceswere obtained at negotiations that SIJNACASwould appoint a Chief Engineer and Chemist with clearly defined responsibilityfor operation and maintenance of the factory and for processing and process control, respectively. Both the Chemist and Chief Engineer would need to be supported by three Assistants and other personnel to operate the factory on a three shift basis. 5.09 No difficulty is anticïpated in recruiting the local staff needed to supervise the constructionand operation of the factory. The constructîon contract requires the contractor to operate the factory during the first two harvesting seasons (1975 and 1976)9 during which time any necessary on-the- job training of factory personnel will be provided. As there are already eight sugar beet processing factories în Morocco and as the sugar manufac- turing process foliowing extraction is similar !or beet and cane, recruitment Of trained and experienced Dersonnel should present no problem.

5.10 The Roads eamen- of the Mînîstry o' Pub.ic Works. Thîs Depart- ment is adequately staff$ed and equîpped and has aiready compléted a Bank financed highway project (Loan/Cred:Lï. 642/167-MOR). The relatively minor improvement works to be undertaken for c.assified roads în the project area are well within the Departmentes capabilities in terma of staff and equipment for surveys, design, supervision of construction by contractors and subsequent maintenance,as are the design and supervision of constructionof the bridge across the Sebou River.

5.11 Project 9Coordination. The Minister of Agriculture is responsible for coordinationof the various minîstries and agencies under Sebou i. Re has established a Project CoordinatingCommittee for this purpose but it has met only on rare occasions. Successful implementationof sugarcane production and processing under the proposed project will call for very close coordination between SUNACAS, ONT and ORMVAG at all levels. The role of MARA and the CoordinatingCommittee in fostering and maîntaining the necessary close working relationshipbetween these organizationsas well as between themuand the other participantsin the project therefore assumes paramount importance. Assurances were obtained at negotiationsthat the Project CoordinatingCommittee under the chairmanshipof the Minister of Agriculture or his deputy would meet not less than once every three months to approve quarterly progress reports, review past achievementsand the future work program for each of the participating organizationsand make recommendationsand take action as necessary to ensure that coordinationbetween participants is maintained.

5.12 Operation and Maintenance. OperAtion and maintenance (O&M) of the flood protection works would be the responsibilityof ORMVAG, which would contract out any major maintenancework on the earth dikes. Minor maintenance of dikes and structures could be undertaken by ORMVAG with equipment now available for use in maintaining the irrigation, drainage and on farm works in the project area.

5.13 ORMVAG would also be responsible for O&M of the access roads in the area. The project would provide for the initial purchase of grading and other equipment,neededby ORMVAG for maintenance of earth roads. The present standard of maintenance of unclassifiedroads in the project area is inadequateand it is essential that once the improved access road network is constructed it should not be allowed to deteriorate. Assurances were obtained at negotiationsthat adequate provision would be made in ORMVAG's annual budget for maintenance of flood protectiondikes and farm access roads constructed or improved under the pro,ect. e ID -17-

5.14 Maintenance of primary and secondary roads would be the responsibility of the Roads Departmentof the Ministry of Public Works and bituminous tertiary roads would be maintained by the ProvincialAuthority. Such roads are presently adequatelymaintained. Because of anticipated traffic increase, some presently unclassifiedroads in the project area would be improved by a bituminous surface. Assuranceswere obtained at negotiations that the unclassifiedroads in the project irea to be reconstructedwith a bituminous surface would, upon completiono.' the works, be maintained by ORMVAG under the technical supervisionof the Ministry of Public Works.

5.15 O&M of the sugarcane factory will be the responsibilityof SUNACAS. Provision has been made under the constructioncontract for workshop equipment which will be adequate for most maintenance and repair work during and out of crop. Arrangementshave been included in the factory contract for equipment to handle such specializedrepair work as mill roller recasing and regrooving.

5.16 CorsultingServices and Training. ORMVAG has very limited experience in sugarcane cultivation,harvesting and transport. Consequently, ORMVAG would retain consultants (eitheras a firm or individually),acceptable to the Bank, for varying periods up to two years and totalling about four man years. These specialistswould survey the sugarcane pest and disease situation; assist in determining,during the first harvest, the most suitable cane transportationsystem; establish a cane sampling system to enable pay- ment to farmers on the basis of quality of cane delivered to the factory; and advise and assist ORMVAG in organizinga sugarcane division to adequately undertake sugarcane research, extension and in-service training of both staff and farmers.

5.17 The contractor supplying and erecting the sugarcane factory for SUNACAS is required to operate the factory for two years following commission- ing, and to train factory operators. This provision,and the fact that there are already eight sugar beet factories in operation in Morocco, make it un- necessary for consultants to oversee constructionand train factory operating staff but consultantswould be required by SUNACAS for the sugarcane factory acceptance.

5.18 The Ministry of Public Works would employ consultants to undertake any further studies required in the project area on flood protectionand preparation of final design and bidding documents for these works. The estimated requirement for this is 128 man months. Consultantswould also have to be retained for about four man-years to assist ORMVAG in field supervision of constructionof flood protectionworks and staff training.

5.19 The project would provide for a consultant pollution control engineer (five man months) to assist the Borrower in a study of pollution in the lower Sebou River.

5.20 As schistosomiasishas been reported in the northern section of the Rharb Plain outside the project area, provision has been made for a consultant (two man-months) to assist in a study of the present situationand make recommendationsfor control measures. - 18

5?21 Forty-two man-raonths of overseas fellowships for in-service training of ORbMAG,MARA and SUNACASstaff have been provîded, wîth particular emphasis on sugarcane research, processing and extension services, The trainees would have the opportunity to see how sugarcane and other major crops in the project are produced, harvested and processed overseas. Short-term graduate training overseas for speciaLists in particular skills is also included in this program. Terms of reference for consultants together with estîmated man-month requirements for both consultants and fellowships are in Annex 7.

5.22 Assurances were obtained during negotiations that tne Borrower would retain consultants, acceptable to the Bank, te advise and assist in implementing the sugarcane and flood protection works and the pollution and schîstosomiasis studies; and that ORMVAG,the Mînistry of Agriculture and SLNACASwould prepare annually a fellowship program, which would be submitted to the Bank for information.

5.23 Sa-ety of the Dam, Any failure of the Idriss I Dam, constructed under Sebou I, and of the flood control structures under the proposed project, mzy result in considerable damage in the Rharb Plain and in the project area in particular. Assurances were obtained during negotiations that the Borrower would carry out, at intervals of not more than f ive years commencing in 1978, a formal inspection of the Idriss I Dam and its appurtenant structures, including the upstream railway protection works, as well as the Sebou River flood protection dikes, to determine whether there are actual or potential defî- ^iencies in the condition of such structures or in the quality and adequacy of maintenance or methods of operation of such structures which may endanger their eafety, and shall take any necessary remedîal action and furnish promptly copies of each inspectïon report to the Bank.

5.24 Recovery of Co Ots.0f the three components 4n the proposed project, the sugarcane factory is essentially self-financing. A tentative cash flow of the factorv (Annex 12, Table 4) illustrates the revenue generation capacity of the învestment. The terms for onlending that part of the Bank loan for the sugarcane factory used in the tentative cash flow were 7-1//4%interest wîtl repayment in 12 years with 2 years grace.

53,2.25 About 50% of the roa8 investments in the proposed project are in ,aa ïnroads and a brIi-dge, bot'! of wh4ch would serve the region as a whele. The reainiug 50% provides for feeder roads and other tertiarSy roads în the project arbea w,ich wodud benefit area -iirtabîtants, A part of cest recovery for these ivestrents would be through road use taxes, as for public roads teroughout I'ioroccct

5%iIhi :lDobd ceontroï works 1Jeould public sector roperty and ma be taterpreted as an insurance on the part of Govern-ment to provide protection ofi ts infrastructure investmern2ns . rea social benefits are also diverse and wouId extend beyond the proJect area, ..n informal understanding was reached that th e capital cost base or which future revisions of water charges payable tb berieficiaîies of Sebou I would hbemade weuld include the flood protection investments. The annual maintenance cost for the flood control dîkes would be small and recovery would be included under the category of water charges. An assurancewas obtained at negotiationsthat the water charge being levied under the Sebou I Project would be adjusted to cover the cost of operation and maintenance of flood control works.

5.27 The Agricultural InvestmentCode provides for the recovery fLromeach farmer of the average operating and maintenance costs and a maximum of 40 percent of the average capital cost of all irrigationand drainage works, including a share of the dam. Recovery is made through a land betterment levy of DH 1,500 per hectare, and through a water charge which is presently fixed at a base rate of DH 29 per thousand cubîc meters within the area of responsibility of ORMVAG. For holdings up to 20 ha, the first 5 ha. are exempt from the betterment levy; in addition, farmers can choose to pay the betterment levy through annual installmentsover 20 years, with 3 years grace and at 4 percent interest. In the early years of irrigated cultivation the amount of the water charge is increased linearly, to reach the full base rate by the fifth year of irrigation.

5.28 The Government recently carried out a review of these charges as provided for under Section 5.09(b) of the Loan Agreement for Sebou I. No actual data for the operation and maintenance cost for the irrigationnetwork is available, since irrigated cultivationhas only just begun. Estimating depreciationand operation and maintenance costs as percentages of capital costs at current prices, but excluding interest (the method followed in the Sebou I Appraisal Report), the revi

VI. PRODUCTION,MARKET PROSPECTS, PRICES AND FARMERS' INCOME

6.01 Production. The present analysis is based on the assumption that at full development,34% of the project area would be under sugarcane with a potential sugar production of about 66,000 ton. Such an assumption is con- sistent with sound agronomic practice. The sugarcane factory, provided for under the project, would produce 44,000 ton of sugar by 1980. This represents about 10% of present domestic consumption and 8% of projected consumption in 1980, and amounts to an increase of 15% in the sugar production capacity of Morocco (see Annexes 1 and 10).

6.02 Market Prospects. Morocco has a high per capita consumption of sugar - about 25 kg per year. In 1973, total sugar consumptionwas about 450,000 ton of which about 200,000 ton were imported. Consumption is expected - 20 - e to increase at 3% per annum to about 550,000 ton by 1980. Domestie productîon cf sugar was begun in 1963 following a steep though temporary prîce increase in world narket prices (froriUSé2.78 per lb in 1962 to USÎ8.29 per lb in 1963). By the end of its current five year plan, Morocco intends to satisfy two-thirds of its demand from domestic production. The incremental sugar production from the project would be easily absorbed on the domestic market (Annex 10).

6.03 Prices. importan: agricuitural inputs are supported by the Govern- ment and ex-farm prices of Zhe main crops are fixed. The latest support prices were announced in December 1973 when the price of sugarcane was fixed at DH 59 (US$15) per ton. The correspondingprice for sugar is USe!3/Lb which is in line with the price of sugar on the world market and is used în this report for analysis. Sugar prices have been highly volatile since 1970 when they were at USé3.68/lb. They averaged USÎ4.50/lb in 1971, USe7.27 in 1972, and USé9.49 in 1973, rising to US19.0 in March 1974. The most rapid increase has occurred since January 1, 1974, when the InternationalSugar Agreement expired. The other main reasons for the currznt high sugar price are lagging production, a severe drought in Northeast Brazi.:(a major exporter of sugar), the European Community's decision to halve their sugar exports, and a shift of U.S. acreage from sugar beet to other crops as a result of relative price changes.

6.04 Farmers' Income. Farmers' incomes benefit from government subsidies on agriculturalequipment and crop production înputs as well as the subsidy on irrigation water. Pro forma farm budgets for farmers with 5 ha holdings are developed in Annex 11 and show the family net cash income before deduction of taxes to be about DH 8,000 (US$1,960) for sugarcane cultivation. This is appreciablyhigher than the estimated incomes generated by the other project crop rotations under irrigation.

6.05 Farmers with incomes above DH 1,400 pay a progressive Agricultural Income Tax increasing from 8% on the first taxable DH 4,600 by stages to a maximum rate of 20% on income in excess of DH 120,000. Larger farmers also pay a progressive ComplementaryIncome Tax on their incomes in excess of DH 20,000 net of the Agricultural Income Tax. Tnis tax rate increases from 3% on the first taxable DH 10,000 by 1% steps for brackets of DH 10,000 to DII100,000 and then by four further steps to a maximum of 30% on amounts in excess of DH 1 million, The progressive nature of these taxes together wîth the betterment levy and water charges in relation to anticipated incomes on 5, 10, 20 and 50 ha holdings under both sugarcane and a four-year arable rotation at full development is shown in Annex 12, Table 11.

VII, BENEFITS AND JUSTIFICATION

7.01 Objectives of the Project. The proJect would provide infrastructure, comprisinga sugarcane factory and road improvements,which is essential to achieve the full benefits of Sebou i. It would further provide, for the area being developed for irrigation as part of that project, protection from flood damage, the risk of which had not been fully apprecîated at the time of the 1968 appraisal. e - 21 -

7.02 Aggregate Economic Return. The aggregate economic return for the present project, using conventionalbenefit estimates for flood control, is 15'. The rate of return of the present project combined with Sebou I is about 8% using the Bank's Economic Analysis and Projections Division's (EAPD) price forecasts. At full developmentof Sebou I the savings from the combined projects on sugar imports alone, would save about US$14 million in foreign exchange annually. Details are given in Annex 12, Table 9.

7.03 Roads. About half of the roads investmentproposed is for main roads and a main road bridge. The benefits from this part of the roads program are road user savings both for the movement of produce arising from the Rharb-Sebou IrrigationProject, and for trunk traffic, unrelated to that proiect. The first year return to this part of the program counting these latter benefits only is estimated at 10 percent (Annex 12, Table 10). The remaining roads to be improved are primarily to facilitate the movement of agricultural produce in the project area. In the aggregate economic analysis for the proposed project the entire cost of this part of the road network development has been charged against the benefits arising from sugarcane cultivation; benefits frointhrough traffic road user savings and the movexmentof other agriculturalproduce have been excluded, and accordingly the overall economic return shown above is a conservativeestimate.

7.04 Sugarcane Factory. The sttgarcanefactory is an investmentof the import substitutioncategory, and economic benefits are defined as savings on sugar imports. At full development,the domestic production cost is estimated at US11/lb ex-factory. The cost of importing sugar was evaluated on the basis of EAPD's forecast adjusted for freight, insurance and domestic handling, namely an average USt 13/lb (Annex 12, Tables 1 and 8). The rate of return is 15.8% (Annex 12, Table 2,) and sensitivityanalysis shows the effects of varying costs and benefits to be:

Rate of Return

Capital cost increased 15% 11.9 O&M cost increased 25% 10.0 Gross benefits increased 25% 22.9 Gross benefits decreased 25% 6.1

Because the factory would operate on margins fixed by Government, its financial rate of return, estimated to be 10%, is appreciably less attractive than the economic rate of return.

7.05 The domestic production of sugar appears to be amply justified on purely economic grounds and the sugarcane factory would be self-financingas well as being an economicallyviable investment.

7.06 Flood Control. The benefits from flood protection are defîned as the reduction in the costs which would result from flooding in the absence of protection. The extent of the losses incurred depends on the întensity and timing of the floods,while cumulative damage depends on frequency of - 22 - floods. In considering the cost of flooding the average annual expected value of losses is usually employed, but farmiers in a flood affected area would be more concerned about the proportion af their vulnerable assets represented by occasional severe flooad losses rather than the average annual value of all their flood lesses. Wliile Government takes necessary measure to assist persons affected by national catastrophies, compensation would net necessarily cover the full lasses ineurred.

7.07 The proposed flood control dikes would prevent damage to the irrigated area from floods without any effect on the distribution of the river flows and the related floods. Measurements over 38 years (1933-1970) indicate that a flood has occurred almost every year, and occasionally more than once a year. Using the expected annual va lue of damage from all floods as the annual benefit to compute the rate of return on the flood protection investment ignores the effect of extreme values of damage on the incomes/net worths of potential beneficiaries and discounts the expected value of damage in computa- tion, implying that the sequence of floods is irrelevant; the use of the expected value leads to an artificial understatement of benefits. Bowever, in order to provide a reference point the rate of return from flood control in- vestmrents using damage estimates developed by consultants was calculated at 11%.

7.08 In view of the intrinsic dififculty of forecasting a flood sequence, an alternative method of economic evaluation could be stated as a comparison between the cost of flood protectîon, consîdered as an insurance premium, and the expected cost of the avoided flood damage over a 20-year period. The "Binouial distributiîon" was used for estimating flood occurrences. The cumulative expected damages from 100 and 5 year floods over 20 years were estimated at DR 56 and DH 524 million, respectively.

7.09 Since protectîon against 100 year floods would necessarily involve protection against 5 year floods as well, the total benefits from protecting against 100 year floods are DH 580 milllion. The benefits are about 12 times larger than the costs and the flood control measures appear to be overwhelming- !y viable. Even if damage from a 5 year flood were only DE 400/ha or 10% of the estîmate, a value which is almlost certain to be exceeded, the expected benefît from flood protectien would be DE 52 million, just equal to the c0st,

73tO iUsing the flood probabiîliies generated, it is estimated that the anniuaI i:nsurance prerniîn that would be charged to provide a silniar level of protection would be at least DH 61 miii3on at 10% interest over 20 years, to *4igh should be added a safet:v loading factor. This is again greater than t.he s. eost- of protection. Consequently, the flood protection îs consid- ere(i an economically viable investeient (details in Annex 12).

7.11 Employrnent.The dIrect employnent effect of this project would be con.fined to the construction period and is roughly estimated as 2,000 man- years over the next five years. In addition, the sugarcane factory would provide permanent employment for 85 anid seasonal (six montbs/year) employment for 200 people. Following completion of Sebou I, employment in agricultural w production would be about 17,000 man-years per year based on the per ha es- tlmates for employment given in Annex 11, Table 3. - 23 - e 7.12 EnvirornmentalImpact. The floodlprotection works to be implemented under the project would contribute to reducing the risk of schistosomiasis transmissionwithin the areas to be protected. The level of schistosomiasis infestationwould also be studied and an assessmentmade of the possibility for its control in the Rharb Plain by eliminating the snail host and treating infected people. Should such control prove practicable,it could form an integral part of a future irrigationdevelopment project for the area.

7.13 Outbreaks of cholera iu the area have been traced to contamination of wells used for drinking water by Sebou River overspill during floods. The flood protectionworks would prevent such contaminationin the protected area and thus further improve health.

7.14 The provision for constructionof an effluent treatment plant, if required, for the new and existing sugar factoriesat Mechra Bel Ksiri will eliminate the risk of future pollution of the Sebou River from this source. The study will further identify other existing sources of pollution and possibly stimulate further efforts to reduce such contaminationof the River and its tributaries.

VIII. AGREEMENTSREACHED AND RECOMMENDATIONS

8.01 The project is technicallysound, economicallyviable and essential to achieve the full benefits from the irrigation,drainage and on-farm developmentworks undertaken in Sebou I.

8.02 Major assurances obtained during negotiationswere that:

(a) the funds provided under the Bank loan to finance the sugarcane factory would be reloaned to SUNACAS at an interest rate not less than the rate of interest on the Bank loan; and that the Governmentwould provide as equity or on otherwise satisfactory terms the balance of the required funds to complete construction of the factory, to cover its pre-operationalcosts and ensure the adequacy of its working capital (para 4.09);

(b) a reorganizationof ORMVAG's AgriculturalProduction Division would be undertaken in a manner to ensure the effective execution of ORMVAG's sugarcane development program (para 5.02);

(c) the Borrower would retain consultants,acceptable to the Bank, to advise and assist in implementing the sugarcane and flood protectionworks and the pollution and scbistesomiasisstudies; and ORMVAG, the Ministry of Agriculture and SINACAS wouid prepare annually a fellowshipprogram which would be submitted to the e Bank for information (para 5.22); - 24 -

(d) the water charge would be adjusted to cover the operation and g maintenance costs of flood control works and ORMVAG would maintain separate accounts for operation and maintenance costs and revenues derived from water charges, the betterment levy and drainage charges and review these from time to time (paras 5.26 and 5.28).

8.03 A special condition of effectivenessof the loan would be that the Governmentwill have completed the financial arrangementsfor SUNACAS.

8.04 With the above assurances, the project constitutes a suitable basis for a Bank loan of US$32 million for 25 years with 5 years' grace. The Bor- rower would be the Kingdom of Morocco.

' -~~~~~ ANNEX I

KINGDOM OF MOROCCO

SEBOUII DEVELOPMENTPROJECT

Country Data

AREA /1 POPULATION IENSITY 505.940km 16.2 million (1973) 30 per km Rate of Growth: 2.9% 186 per km

POPULATIONCHARACTERISTICS (1 965-1970) 1 HEALTH(1965) Crude Birth Rate (per 1,000 49-5 Populationper physician Crude Death Rate (per 1,000 16.5 12,930 Infant Mortality (per 1,000 live births)149.0 (1962) Population per hospital bed 660

GNP PER CAPITA in 1973/2 US$ 272

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1972 (DH million) 20,320

DH million % of GNP

Exports of Goods, NFS 4,340 21.4 of which, Agriculture (1,738) 8.6 Imports of Goods, NFS 4,490 22.1 of which, Agriculture (835) 4.1

Unît 1970 1971 1972

AgricultureProduction/3 DH Million 4,300 4,860 4,790 Value Added DH Million 3,350 3,880 3,780 Rural Population DH Thousand 9,790 9,965 10,145 Employment DH Thousand 1,945 1,960 1,988 ProductionPer Capita DH 435 488 472 Value Added Per Capita DH 342 389 372 ProductionPer Worker DH 2,210 2,480 2,413 Value Added Per Worker DH 1,722 1,980 1,904

RATE OF EXCHANGE

Through 1971 Since February 1973 US$ 1.00 = DR 5.06 US$ 1.00 = 4.19 DH 1.00 = US$ 0.1°8 DH 1.00 = 0.24

Dec. 1971 - Feb. 1973 January 1C 1574 US$ 1.00 = DH 4.66 U.$ 1.00 =DH 4.08 DH 1.00 = US$ 0.21 DH 1.00 = US$ 0.2h5 v UN data 'ThePer Capita GNP estimateis at 1972 market prices, calculated by the same conversionat the average exchange rate prevailing during the period covered. 3 Excluding fishing.

April 18, 1974 e ANNEX 2 Page 1

KINGDOM OF MOROCCO

SEBOU II DEVELOPMENTPROJECT

The Need for Flood Control and Long-Term and Interim Protection Alternatives

The Hydrology of the Sebou River

1. Besides the Lower Sebou Catchment within the Rharb Plain, three catchmentareas contribute to river flows through the project area, namely the Ouerrha River catchment, the Upper Sebou basin catchment and the Wadîs Beth and R'Dom catchment. Theîr main characteristîcsare summarized in Table 1. The Ouerrha River, which joins the Sebou as it emerges into the Rharb Plain, drains runoff from the impermeable slopes of the Rif mountain chain. Though this catchment area is smaller than that of the Sebou River, the rapid runoff which occurs is the main cause of flooding in the Rharb Plain.

2. Located in the Middle Atlas Mountains, the catchment area of the Sebou and Inaouene Rivers, upstream from the Sebou/Ouerrhaconfluence, is very extensive but it receives less abundant and less violent precipitation than the Ouerrha and, thus, its low level discharge is more regular and sustained and its floode are less extreme.

3. Of the various tributarieswhich enter the Sebou River downstream of the Ouerrha confluence, the Wadis Beth and R'dom are the most important. Their catchment areas have a low runoff coefficient and receive moderate rainfall. Their floods have been less thoroughly studied although it is known that they are less severe than those of the Upper Sebou. Table 1 gives the discharge values for floods of various frequencies for the Ouerrha at M'4ara the upper Sebou at Azibes Soltane and at their confluence (start of the lower Sebou). The Ouerrha floods are clearly predominant and, according to the resulte of a statistical analysis, the maximum flood discharges for any particular frequency expectationat the confluence are practicallyno higher than those of the Ouerrha alone. There are several reasons for this result. Firstly, floods from the two catchments do not coincide since different rainfall systems affect the Rif and middle Atlas mountains. Secondly, the discharges of the Ouerrha and the Sebou were investigatedat some distance above the confluence and the flood flows at these points have already been damped to a certain extent before they reach the confluence. Finally, the mathema- tical extrapolationrelationships adopted for the separate investigations are not identicaland this can affect the comparison.

4. The recent exceptional floods (1963 and 1970) show, however, that although the Sebou flood is less strong than that of the Ouerrha, its effect at the confluence cannot be neglected. Furthermore,some considerationmuet be given to the downstreamcatchments' floods. If by constructionof the M'Jara storage dam the floods of the Ouerrha were stopped, the ten year AYNEX 2 Page 2 frequency flood of the Sebou could pass without causing any flooding. Even slightly higher floods could be contained if the flood damping capacity of the Idrîss 1 dam îs used so that floods of the Inaouene River do nlotcoincide with those of the other tributaries.3However, rarer floods would exceed the capacity of the lower Sebou (1,600 m /sec). Also, floods of the downstream catchment area (Wadis Beth and R'Dom) would no loiigerappear negligible as they would no longer flow into an already flooded Rharb Plain.

3lo0dinEof the Rharb,Plain

5. The Rharb is the alluvîal plain of the Sebou. It is a flat low area dominated, upstream in partîcu2ar, by the bed of the Sebou, the banks of which have been progressîvelyraîsed by the deposition of sîit during flooding. The Rharb Plain extends for 1,500 km2 on the right bank and for 2,200 km2 on the left bank.

6i In the Rharb Plain, the discharge capacity of the bed of the lower Sebou decreases from upstream to d rwnstream.After the Sebou/Ouerrha confluence, the bed can carry 3,200 m /sec until Sidi Aissa 24 km downstream without overflowing. At Mechra bel Ksiri 70 km downstream of the confluence 3 the discharge capacîty îs 3 only 2,000 m /sec. At Maati 80 km downstream of the confluence, it is 1,600 m /sec and does not change very much until the sea. Small floods of up to 2,000 m3/sec only overflow downstream from Mechra bel Ksiriî .Averagefloods from 2,000 to 3,20o m3/sec only overflow below Sidi Aissal High floods overflow between the confluence and Sidi Aicha, in the S19 sector. The width of this overflow area îs sufficient to accommodate overspill from exceptîonal flood peaks with only a slight increase in water- level, and remaining flood discharges do not exceed 4,000 m3/sec below Sidi Aicha.

7, Eighty percent of the overspill occurs over the left bank and twenty percent over the right bank. The overspill occurs at specific locationswhich are eaeily identified from aerial photograps taken after the floods. The water flows towards Che lateral depressions (merjas), especîally the one on the left bank, where it accumulates because the canals and natural drainage ChannnleT are smll and because the left bank outlet (Wadî Beth) is temporarily danîned by the i' levels of the Lover Sebou at Moghrane. During zhe 1963 eioods,. a large part of the merja on the left bank remained floodec for five to e4ght daysr

8 ~ During the double floods of January 1970, a large part of the r'M1,1Z'rema ned flooded for 12 to 17 days and more than 30 days were required eto 'etelv drain the lcwest parts.

9Q. Investigations of flood volumes were based on the 39 floods of the 1933-1971 period, which had been reconstituted in the course of the hydrological studies. Volume of overflows was also investigated. Since, when levels are increased by inundations,the Sebou can dîscharge no more than 2,000 m3/sec into sea, the volume overflowing in the plain is the volume of the flow in excess of 2,000 m3 /sec. Having deternined the overflow volume of the 39 floods, the overflow volumes for various frequencîes were established by a stochastie analysis, au follows, wîth comparison to the 1963 and 1970 floods: ANNEX 2 Page 3

Total Flood Volume Overflow Volume …----million m 3 --

Ten year frequency flood 2,500 750 Eundred year frequency flood 5,500 2,400 Thousand year frequency flood 9,000 4,700 December 1963 flood 2,635 1,235 January 1970 flood 5,974 2,353

Long-Term Development

10. The possibilitiesfor long-term flood protectiondepend on the considerablepotential for the extension of irrigation networks served by storage dams. These irrigation systems and their reservoirs would be developed in two phases. The first phase will total 100,000 ha; to completely develop this area for irrigation,construction of the M'Dez dam and Matmata tunnel will be necessary to divert winter flows in the Sebou River into the Idriss I reservoir (100 million m3).

11. The Second Phase would permit irrigation of a further 108,000 ha, and would entail either:

(a) the constructionof a large storage dam at M'Jara, on the Ouerrha; or

(b) the constructionof several smaller storage dams on the tributaries of the Ouerrha and the Sebou.

The first alternativewould be more effective as regards flood absorption but the second would permit greater flexibility in the rate at which the irrigation could be developed and would be less costly.

Long-Term Flood Protection

12. A study of possible long term flood protection of the Rharb Plain was undertaken by the Hydraulic Department of the Ministry of Public Works, with assistance from Consultants. The study recommended possible alternatives:

(a) Absorbing the Ouerrha floods by constructionof a large dam at M'Jara. The envisaged capacity for the MtJara reservoir would be as follows:

(i) 500 million m3 to allow for siltîng (over a period of 100 years);

(iî) 1,100 million m3 reserved for irrigation purposes;

(iii) 500 million m3 reserved for flood absorption. ANNEX 2 Page 4

Without provision For flood absorption, the dam would still play an important role in flood absorbtion if the correct operating procedures were followed, and its hydraulic efficiency in reducing the Rharb flooding would be 73%. If the flood absorption capacity was included, this efficiency would rise to 80%. It would never reach 100% efficiency as there will always remain the possibiîlty of flooding occurring from the Sebou River and the lower Sebou tributaries.

(b) Constructionof flood escape channels to divert flood waters on either the left or right bank of the Sebou River, wîth or without the constructionof the M'Jara reservoir for storage of irrigation water. These diversion channels would enable succes- sive protection levels to be attaînedt as follows:

(i) The first stage would consist of a diversion channel to be constructed on the left bank of the Rharb Plain. This channel would divert excess flows and direct them into the Sebou downstream from the plain, towards Moghrane. The channel would increase the evacuation capacity to 3,500 m3/sec (as opposed to the present 1,600 m3 /sec for the Lower Sebou). Its hydraulic efficiency would be 72%. The term "diversion channel" does not signify an excavated channel but rather a strip of ground 500 to 1,000 meters wlde bordered by dikes. The channel would not necessarily be uniform and might include areas for deposition of sediment. Flood water contains 10 to 20 g/l of silt and the flooding whiçh occurred in 1970 deposited an estimated 20 million m3 of sediment in the plain.

(ii) The subsequent stages present three alternatives, namely (a) increasing the discharge capacîty downstream for Moghrane by providing an additional evacuation channel directed towards the sea across the coastal sand dunes (diversioncontrolled by the Lalla Aîcha dam). The evacuation capacity of the Sebou River with thiî sup- plementary channel, combined with the Stage 1 diversion channel on the left bank, would increase to 5,000 m3/sec and the-hydraulicefficiency against flooding would reach 90%. Flooding of the right bank where only 20% of the overflow occurs would probably be eliminated. (b) Constructionof a second diversion channel on the Sebou right bank startîng upstream from the plain (Sidi- Aissa) and flowing out directly into the sea. As in the previous alternative,an evacuation capacity of 5,000 m3/sec could be obtaîned vith a hydraulic efficiency of 90%. e AhNEX 2 Page 5

(c) Constructionof the M'Jara éam for irrîgation purposes, omitting provisiornof reserve reservoir capacity for flood absorption. The hydraulic efficiency against flooding would be 98%.

Interim Flood Protection

13e A study o£ the alternativesfor interîm flood protectionof the Rharb Plain was undertaken during preparation of Sebou I and indicated that the most economicallyvalid solution was to delay protection measures until the development of irrigationrequired the constructionof the M'Jara dam which would then ensure protection against flading at the same time. Follow- ing the successionof floods which included the exceptional flood of 1970, the possibility of earlier constructionof protectionworks was re-examined. The investigationcarrîed out by consultants has not confirmed that cyclical weather patterns are likely to result in a higher than normal frequency of floods in the next decade, which would make early constructionof protection works economicallyadvantageous. However, the profitabilityof immediate protection appeared to be sufficient for flood protectionworks to be econo- mie, providing that irrigationdevelopment and associated flood protection be delayed for certain sectors (irrigationareas SC and S19) which are difficult to protect under present conditions.

14. Interim flood protection measures comprise construction of dikes along the perimeter of sectors equipped for irrigationand provision of channels between the sections for flood overflow. The various elements of the scheme comprise:

(a) IrrigationSector Pll, protected by dikes to form Flood Con- trol Sector A;

(b) former Irrigation Sector S19, to remain undeveloped as Flood Channel X;

(d) Part of Irrigation Sector Sll, to remaîn undeveloped as Flood Channel Y;

(e) IrrigationSectors S11 (balance),S9 and part of S7, protected by dikes to form Flood Control Sector C;

(f) part of IrrigationSector S7, to remain undeveloped as Flood Channel Z;

(g) Irrigation Sectors S7 (balance),S5, S3 and S1, protected by fb dikes to form Flood Control Sectors D and E; and e a e

ANNEX2 KINGDOM OF NDROCCO Table 1

SEBOU II DEVELOPMENTPROJECT

Hydrological Characteristios of the Catchment Area

Hydrological Characteristics Catchment Area

Combined Wadi Bethand Upper Upper Wadi R'Dom Unit Ouerrha Sebou Catchments Catchments Surface Area kM2 7,337 16,537 23,943 15,126 Annual Rainfall mi 1,007 653 770 Mean Runoff Coefficient 0.41 0.21 0.15 Maximum Flood Discharge n 3 /sec Ten Year FrequencyFlood 5,650 1,950 6,000 Hundred Year Frequency Flood 9,990 3,5oo 10,100 Thousand Year Frequency Flood 14,200 6,000 14,200

Actual Flood Discharge »3 /sec Dec. 1963 Flood 7,200 1,600 8,150 Jan. 3, 1970 Flood 5,000 1,200 6,200 Jan 12, 1970 Flood 6,850 2,100 8,750 Catchment of Existing Dams km2 Idriss I on the Inaouene River 3,680 El Kansera on Wadi Beth 4,536

April 26, 1974 e e a ANNEX 3 Page 1

KINGDOM OF MOROCCO

SEBOU II DEVELOPMENTPROJECT

Land Tenure and Agrarian Reform

1. In Morocco, land tenure is characterizedon the one hand by the Koranic principle of equality of right to land and on the other by a diver- sity of ethnic and tribal traditions. Therefore, there is a multîplicity of coexisting legal tenure, each wîth different implicationsunder land reform.

2. There are four basic kinds of tenure:

(a) Private freehold (Melk). This is the most prevalent form of tenure in the Rharb Plain, accounting for about a third of the total area. Tenure may be by an individual or in co-ownership ("indivision"t)or by a company. Until March 1973, a special category of Private Freehold by foreigners ("colonizationprivee") existed, but this land was expropriated by Royal Decree of March 1973 and ij now in the process of being taken over.

(b) Tribal Collective land. This also covers about a thîrd of the Rharb Plain. The land is held under trusteeship of the Ministry of the Interior, with rights to use held by tribal groups ranging in size between 50 and 300 households. Each family, comprising a married man and his dependents, has equal right to use of the group land which is redivided periodically to take account of population changes in the group. Members of the group do not hold individual rights to sale of land. These lands have been derived from various sources including allocationby`the State in return for military service (guich) and nomadic camp sites. This form of tenure is dtrongly related to cohesive social units, both economicallyand socially self-sufficient,and has developed in an economic and political environment typified by scarce labor and plentiful land. This form of tenure has been decreasingwith the growing value of land as a saleable commodity, decreasing social cohe- sien and isolation of tribal groups.

(c) State land. Land held by the State consists of both public (domaine public de l'Etat) and private (domaine privee de 2.Etat) lands and includes those lands to which the public in general have access (road reservations,etc.), lands used for research stations, seed multiplicationfarms, land rented by Governnent to individual cultivators and farms managed ib by government companies. Land expropriated from foreigners for distributionunder land reform becomes State land. Two State ANNEX 3 Page 2

companies, SODEA (Company for Develoment of Agricultural Production) and SOGETA (Company for Idministrationof Agrî- cultural Land), are managing expropriatedland not yet distributed. SODEA, established în 1972, is responsible for land from the 1963 expropriationof official colonization, mostly orchards, and SOGETA for private colonization expropriatedin March 1973.

(d) Religious trust land (Habous). There are only about 4,400 ha of religious trust land in the Rharb Plain. It was officially expropriatedin 1969 under the land reform program and is thus available for redistribution.

3. There is.extreme fragmentationof holdings and a complexity of claims to and uses of land as a result of individual efforts to obtain as much land as possible. About 25% of the land in the Rharb Plain is rented and sharecroppingunder varîous arrangementsis common. To retain land within a family, marriage of cousins with appropriate inherîtance rights occurs. A person may hold part of his land as a member of a collective, part as freehold bought or inherited,or part as a shareholder ïn a company either entirely Moroccan or with foreign participation,each case beîng subject to different treatment under land reform.

The Land Reform Program

4. The AgriculturalInvestment Code of 1969 and the Agrarian Reform Law of 1966 subsequentlyrevised in 1972, are primarily concerned with revers- ing the trend of increasing fragmentationand diminution of holdings; conso- lidating holdings to facilitate agriculturaldevelopment; encouraging investment in agriculture;and distributingState land including that expropriated from foreign owners.

5. State land is distributed as a rule to individuals in "viable" family farm units, capable of being cultivated by a family with a labor input equivalent to two men and able to provide an adequate family income presently accepted as being about DH 49000 (US$980) per year. Under the Agrarian Reform Law, the farmer contracts wîth the State to:

(a) buy the land and pay for it in kind;

(b) farm the entîre holding himself;

(d) follow a set cropping pattern using accepted cultivation techniques;

(e) pass on his entire holding to one heir with other children receiving compensation for the land they would otherwise have inherited under traditional law; O ANNEX 3 Page 3

(f) give up all other rights to land; and

(g) share in the cost of agriculturalinvestment to develop the holding.

The beneficiariesfrom such land redistributionmust be Moroccan nationals, locally born or resident in the district for a set period of time, be agrî- culturalistsby profession, be of good claracter and have a present income less than that foreseen as accruing from the new holding.

6. State land may also be distributed to collectîves,providinc that they operate as productioncooperatives, though iit,le Lancdnas been so distributed.

7. The Agricultura. Investment Code applies only to areas decreed as "Zones of Development" wîthin which the State may intervene to reorganize land tenure through land consolidation, enlarging of small 'non-viable' holdings and changing of boundaries to ensure effective use of capital improvements such as irrigation facilities and drainage. In these Zones of Development, division of land into units of less than 5 ha is forbidden and tenure in collectives is limited to those indivîdual.s who held rights to land at the date of publication of the leiw (July 25" 1969). TIus further redistribution of tribal land to accommodatonewly marrîed members within the collective is abolished and one heir to thuse individualspresently having rights to tribal land may in due course inherit such rights.

8. . Within a decreed Zone of Development, further land transactionsare prohibited until reorganizationwithin the zone has been completed.

9. The Code defines the degree to which the farmers within a zone of Development shall participate in the învestment for improvementof agriculture through a land betterment levy, charges for irrigation water and similar methods of cost recovery.

grartLan Reform in the Sebou I Projjct Area

10. Under the Sebou I Project, land reorganizationthrough consolidation and redistributionWas planned for completion by 1974. Tne present land tenure situation is shown in Table 1, which, though derived from various sources and subject to error, is sufficientlyaccurate to show the overall position. All the necessary cadastral studies have been completed, and for about 80% of the project area consolidationhas been completed and the irrigationunit boundaries fixed. The remaîning area will be completed in 1974. Land redi3tribution has proceeded much more slowly than had been anticipated. It had been planned to create a common fund of land comprising foreign owmned, $tate owniedand tribal lands which was expected to be sufficient, together with freehoids of less than 5 ha, to enable all familîes owning such small holdings and the landiess to be provided wïth 5 ha holdings. This redistribution operation was to take * place as part of a reorganizationof the land to be irrigated into suitably sized blocks of about 30 ha and to proceed sector bv sector along with the .i EX 2 Page 4 constructionof the irrigation and drainage works. In the first area to be developed, comprising Sectors Pll, S19 and S17a, expropriationby decree of tne foreign owned land held as private freehold was delayed until 1971. It was also found that in practice :he two operations of consolidation (in which all owners must have the same value of land as they held previously) and distribution(which increases the size of holdings) are so legally distinct that their execution simultaneouslywas extremely difficult. It was decided to proceed with consolidationand equipmientof areas for irrigation, reorganizingland to be expropriatedand holdings to be enlarged in units whicitwere multiples of 5 ha, thus facilitatingthe subsequent redistribution process.

11. Tthe1971 expropriationof 4,200 ha of foreîgn owned land enabled all holdings of less than 5 ha in Sectors S19, Pll and S17a to be enlarged to at least 5 ha, some 400 ha of the redistributedland being used for this purpose and about 2,500,ha being used to create some 350 new holdings for the landless or families with very little land. The remaining area comprised plantations and has been handed over to SODEA.

12. In 1973 and 1974, about 10,750 ha of land was taken over from foreigners,some 75% beîng in the area for irrigation. Of the 10,400 ha in thas area which has been expropriatedto date but not yet redistributed, about 4,050 ha is claimed to be owned, either entirely or in joint ownership, by Moroccans. A further 2,150 ha comprises plantations and 600 ha consists of research stations, seed farma and simîlar government use lands, leaving 3,600 ha definitely available for redistributioni.It is planrnedto redis- tribute this land by 1976, and an area of State land now rented to Moroccans în 10-15 ha lots for raînfed culti.vationand totalling 2,600 ha in 1977.

13. In thlearea to remain under rainfed cultivation,some 3,600 ha have been expropriatedand 2,500 ha remain undistributedof which about half is subject to disputed ownership. About 7,000 ha of State land rented for rainfed cultivation l) 10-15 ha lots will be available for distribution as Moroccan freehold, though it will be necessary to chtan.geits title rrom public to private State iand prîor te distribution. Total distributionof state and former foreiîn owned land in t1we proiect arz-a will thnerefore amoint to at least 17,900

14. The number of famïlies who wouLd have a claim.to land available for redistributioncannat be estimated precîsely. There were in 1971 about 10,850 Moroccan families ln tne project area with holdings of less than 5 ha each and totalling 23,700 ha (Table 2), It would require 30,000 àa to en- large tne holdings for each of these familïes to 5 ia. There were 13,750 ;aaî1ies with aioldings,from which it would appear that bezween 4,000 and 5,000 families in the area are landless if the assumption is correct that total population in the area of 110,000 representsabout 18,000 famillies. Aniothersurvey estimates the number of landless families to be 2,150. The deflnition of famiriyîs not very precise and may range froana young married mnanand his wife to an oid man with several middle aged sons and daughters e with tlceirspouses and children wio în fact may farm separate parts of the ANNEX 3 ge Page 5

"fami:Ly" holding. Thus an estimate of some 2,150 landless agricultural workers ln the area may in large part reflect married and urnmarried adult sons of land- owners wiO ther.selves have no land but find ftill or seasonal employnent on tne 'familv' holding. To provide holdings for even 4,000 lan`dless families would require a further 20,000 ha of land for redistribution, making a total requirement of 50,000 ha. Even this figure does not take account of the fact that some holdings would be in the rainfed area extending to 10 or 15 ha rather tnan 5 ha for irrigation. Overall therefore the amnount of land available is less tlhan would be required to benefit all sharehiolders and landless faamiies in the project area.,

15. Incomes from 5 ha holdings after lard redistribution in the Rharb Plain have been assessed as ranging from DII893 to 11,520 (US$219 to 2,824 equivalent), with an average of DH 4,700 (IJS$1,152). holdings whieh have recently been consolidated arLdbrought up to 5 ha tend towards the lowest incomes while those established several years ago are among the highest. A farm cooperative established in 1966 was providing an average income among its meinbers of DH 9,053 (US$2,219) in 1972 while another only in its first years averaged DlH2,945 (US$722).

June 3, 1974

the Land Tre Situation in the Seboa I Proigt Arma

or Temlre! Tyx rtar Atre. t lkd iaed l (ha) 1ç ( (JJ) braccan Freehold 21,700 9,300 31,000 36

Joint oaroccan/Foreigu Freehold 600 1,900 2,500 3

Tribal Collective Land 20,000 7,000 27,000 31

ReUgious Trust (aboaus) 250 _ 250 0

State T.an (Dines Priveeu ds Publique)

1963 iroppriation 1,200 250 1,1450 2

1971 Expropriation 3,400 80 j, 200 5

1973 lxpropriation 8,200 2,550 10,750 12

MerJas 2,600 7,000 9,600 tt

Other St,ate Lands 2 000 1 500 3 5°° 4

Les8 Distributed nIex . l»nd refaor 2.400 l,lCO 35 26 4 15MDOD ll,OOO~____ 26 000 3 Total

Availablity o! State Landx for Redistribution

Available for Distribution

t) SOGET awn r', 3,600 1,200 4,800 6

11) Mcrinr 2,600 7,000 9,600 i

Legal Status Being Investigated 4,050 1,300 5,350 6 SODEA Managed, Hostly Plantations Plantations 2,150 2,150 )

Research Institutes 2500 ) 3

COOMAOI 250 250 ) Other (including rosd reservations, etc.) 2,100 ,53,600

Total 15,000 11,000 26,000 30 /1 Source - ORMVAG 7- TIncluded in Moroccan Freehold.

J'ine 7, 197!h ANNEX 3 Table 2 MOROCCO

SEBOUII DEVELOPMENTPROJECT Size Distributionof MoroccanOwned Holdingsin the SebouI ProjectAreaL (1971)

Size of Holdings Families Total Area (ha (No.)% (ha) (

0 - 2 5,250 38.0 6,700 10

2- 5 5,600 41.2 17,000 26 5 - 10 1,700 12.0 11,400 17

10- 20 700 5.0 9,100 14

20 - 50 400 3.0 10,600 16 50 - 100 70 0.5 4,400 7

Over 100 40 0.3 6,900 10 Total 13,750 100.0 66,100 100

/ This table,derivedfrom tax assessmentstatistics, the only available source,shows only the distributionof ownership.

June 7, 1974

. KINGDOMOF MOIROCCO

SEBOU II DEVELOPMENTPROJECT

Annual Family Income of Beneficiaries on Cooperatives Under Land Reform in the Rharb Province

Type of Size of Year of ------Annual Income------Holding Holding Allocation 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 ------DH------

Irrigated 5 1966 2,0OO 4,610 3,760 4k,1440 5,400 6,660 5 1967 - 6,440 5,520 7,080 7,250 7,170 5 1969 _- - 720 1,760 3,080 5 1971 - - - - - 3,730

Rainfed 8 1966 1,600 8,260 7,390 7,hoo 8,220 9,050 12 1969 - - - 3,000 2,870 4,030 16 1971 - - - - - 3,200 10 ------2,950

%-v ?0, 1,97b!@| e ANNEX 4 Page 1

KINGDOMOF MOROCCO

SEBOU Il DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

Sugar Cane Production

Introduction

1. Experimentationon sugarcanewas initiated in 1964 în the Moulouya area ortthe Mediterranean coast and in 1965 in the Sebou and Loukos valleys in the developmentand reform program for Moroccan agriculture.

2. From the first sugarcane trials establishedin the Basse Moulouya in 1964, extension plots on farmers' lands were planted in 1967, and nurseries in 1970. Field trials enabled definite conclusions to be drawn on varieties, dates of plantirg, crop cycle, yield and sucrose content and to some extent number of ratoons. The first sugarcane crop wîll be processed in a mixed cane-beet factory at Zaio in the spring of 1974" the eventual production target being 120,000 ton of cane from 2,000 ha of plantations. Sugarcane fields in Moulouya, both at experîmentstations and on earmers' land, are growing well and the future of commercial sugarcane production in that area appears promising.

3. In the project area, experimentationhas been concentratedat the Ministry of Agriculture's,Departmeitt of AgriculturalResearch (DRA) Station at Sidi Allal Tazi, but many extension plots and several commercial plantations have also been established in the area. In 1973, 800 ha - out of a target figure of 1,000 ha - were planted in the Sectors S13 and S17 (Map 10900).

4. Planting and production forecasts are given in the Table. Cane production for processingat the new factory to be erected at Mechra Bel Ksiri should be around 80,000 ton in 1975, gradually încreasingto approximately 430,000 ton in 1982 when the area under cane %ill exceed 8,000 ha. Sugar production from cane will then amount to approximately45,000 ton, the harvest:season extending over the period end April to early October.

5. Production figures quoted above are based on conservativeyield figures. Experimentalplots indicate production of approximately5.5 ton of millab.lestalks per hectare per month for ratoons, but it wouJLd be dangerous to equate these figures with those obtained on farmers' fields, bearing in mind soîl variations, cultivation standards and such hazards as the occurrence of frosts and floods.

Crop Cycles and Forecast of Production

* 6. The optimum crop cycles for sugarcane iîrthe Rharb area are determined by an interactionof the following factors: ANNEX 4 Page 2 m

(a) Harvest Period. The harvest period must coincide with the dry season, extending from mid April to mid October. Heavy rains in the winter months would cause difficulties in harvestîngand transport, thereby interferingwith normal cane supply to the factory.

(b) Occurrence of Frosts. Proximîty to the Atlantic Ocean has a moderating influence on winter temperaturesin the Rharb, uakîng it almost free fram frost. Occasionally, however, a complex air circulationsystem causes cold air from the east to flow through the Taza gap, bringing freezing temperaturesto areas east of a lîne through Souk el Arba and Mechra Bel Ksiri and in the south extending westwards from Sidi Slimane almost to the coast at Kenitra. The affected areas are shown on the following diagram, in which the area selected for sugarcane cultivation is shaded. AN'NEX 4 Page 3

Risk of frost in the project area is largely confined to the 'cool zone' east of the line Souk el Arba - Mechra Bel Ksiri - Sidi Slimane. The remainder of the project area will be referred to as the 'warm zone'. The original plan was to plant equal areas of cane in both the cool and warm zones. Following changes in the areas to be irrigatedand provided with flood protection, the areas of cane cultivationwill be 2,500 ha and 5,600 ha in the cool and warm zones, respectively. In order to reduce the hazards of frost damage to sugarcane in the cool zone, 12 month old cane should be harvested. While this practice is possible for ratoon canes, plant canes need a longer period - at least 15 months growth to reach maturity. Further, plant canes have to be harvested in the spring so that ratoons will benefit from a full summer season for the following crop. It is proposed by ORMVAG that the crop cycle in the cool zone should be of four years duration with one plant crop 24 months old followed by two 12 month ratoon crops, though it seems likely the crop cycle could be extended to include a third ratoon. Harvest would in every case be undertakenas early as possible in the season. For the warm zone, where no limitations are imposed by freezing temperatures,it is planned to pursue an eight year cycle of a plant crop about 26 months old and three ratoons each about 24 months old when harvested, between July and Sep- tember. In the absence of reliable data it has not been possible to ascertain if the crop cycle could be extended by taking more ratoon crops in either zone.

(c) Regrowth of Canes After Harvest. A sugarcane crop under Rharb conditionsmust have at least one full summer growth season for acceptable yîelds to be obtained. In the 12 month cycle in the cool zone, therefore,ratoons will have to be harvested early in the season, in any case not later than the end of June, go as to ensure economic returns the following year. The harvesting program will have to be planned in such a way that areas in the cool zone receive priority, the operation being completed at the end of June. The harvest program for areas in the warm zone, on the other hand, is more flexible, extending to the end of September and insuring two summer growth periods between successiveharvests.

(d) Sucrose Content. Experiment results show the sucrose content of canes fluctuatesaccording to age of the cane and to season, as follows: e ANNEX4 Page 4

(î) 12 month old cane may be harvested between December and June with satisfactorysucrose content (13%);

(ii) between June and Sepi:embersucrose content of 12 month old canes may drop to a level as low as 5 or 6% with consequentialdeterioration of juice purity; and

(iii) although there is a lowering of juice quality in the summer months, sucrose content of canes grown for 18 months or more remains at acceptables levels throughout the year.

The experimentson the seasonal fluctuation in sucrose content of canes at Sidi Allal Tazi in the Rharb and at Larache in the Loukos valley gave the results tabulated below. Figures from experimentalplots at Larache have been included as they afford confirmatoryevidence. They show clearly the importance of early harvesting for 12 month old cane.

Seasonal Fluctuation in Sucrose Content of Sugarcane Harvested at Different Ages

Sucrose % Cane 12 month old cane 18 month old cane Date of Harvest Sidi Allal Tazi Lsrache Sidi Allal Tazi Larache

February 14.00 -- March - - - 14.80 April 15.10 14.60 14.60 15.00 May June 15.40 15.10 15.40 August 8.30 10.10 14.40 14.70 October 10.40 10.10 14.20 - December 10.60 11.90 13.40

Source: Schmidt, B. Rapports 1970-71 and 1971-72 Canne a Sucre; mimeographed. DRA Station Centrale des Pl.antesSucrieres.

7. Taking into account the above factors, the following crop cycles for sugarcane offer reasonable promîse of econoiîc success:

. ANNEX 4 Page 5

(a) Cool Zone Year

(i) Planting: Aprîl to ,Tune 0 (Mi) Plant crop hanrested 24 months later 2 (iii) lst ratoons harvested 12 months later 3 (iv) 2nd ratoons harvested 12 months later 4 (v) Field ploughed out, catch crop Jul-Dec 4 (vi) Land ready for replanting cane, Apr-May 5

Expected Yields

Plant crop 100 m ton cane/ha

Ratoons 70 m ton cane/ha

Production per cycle 240 ton in 4 years -60 m ton cane/ha/annum

(b) Warm Zone Year

(i) Planting: April to June 0 (iî) Plant crop harvested 26 months later 2 (iii) lst ratoon harvested 26 moiths later 4 (iv) 2nd ratoon harvested 26 months later 6 (v) 3rd ratoon harvested 26 months later 8 (vi) Field ploughed out, catch crop, Jul-Dec 8 (vii) Land ready for replanting cane, Apr-May 9

Expected Yields

Plant Crop (26 months) 110 m tonscane/ha

Ratoons (24 months) 110 m ton cane/ha

Production per cycle 440 ton in 8 years -55 m ton cane/ha/annum

8. A preliminary forecast of cane production to 1982 prepared by ORMVAG has been modified in the attached Table, with the object of decreasing the area planted in the cool zone while increasing that in the warm zone proportionately to forecast cane and sugar production to meet factory requirementsfor full capacity operatîon by 1982.

Sugar Cane Cultivation

9. Sugarcane cultivation in the project area will be liîited to the areas of deeper, better drained soils of the river levees. Salinity is not at present a limiting factor in these areas. The soils are lighter in tex- ture than the remainder of the project area but soil conpaction may become a problem. Page 6

10. The basic unit of irrigation wîthin the Rharb development area is a rectangular block of 30 ha, usually 600 m long and 50G m wide, divided into six "fields", 100 mn to 150 m tide. Such a block norma±ly comprises five farms of six- ha, each farm havi-ig a plot in each of the six fields. The fields are separa.ted by a track 6 m wide bordered by a drainage ditch on one side and on the other by an irrigation CLa5flt :ed by a syphon from a tertiary irrigation canal. Irrigation is provited by syphons along furrows zunning acrosa tae fields at right angles te the access track.

11,tr For t he purpose of sugarcane production ît has been proposed that each field would be cultivated as a unit so that at any given tîme there would be 5 ha of sugarcane at the same stage of the crop cycle belonging to flive farmers, wh±le four of the fixe other fïelds in a block will be occupied by catieat other stages ef. growth and one field will be under fallow or a catch crop.

12. Although the layoat adopted may be suitable for other crops, it presents serious limitations for sugarcane cultîvation. mle width of the fîeld (lOn m) îs such that mechanical operations cannot be carried out efficiently along sugarcane rows which should be at least 200 m long for effiieent mechanical operations The narrow tracks separating the fields which are often ini poor condition as a result of seepage from the irrigation channel will make tractor movements in and out of the fields difficult and especially înterfere with transport of cane out of the field at harvest, ORMVAGand the Mîn

3. Theatracks separain g thtefelds could be graded, providing a gentle slope so as to elaimnate the drainage dtch, aænd the earth irrigation canal arnd sypkons could be replaced by standard portable pipes w±th ad- justable autlets everv 121 irm I, this way there would be no h4ltdrance to tractors moving ecross the 200 m widt cf two standard Clelds, thereby im- provîn.g the effîiciecy Jf Tcmahanîcal opocrationsQ R%e use of port."ale pipes would 1nvolve additicrnal capital esxpendcture w4ich would ,,e partiy offset by savngs on tfe cost of swypirns and minæntenance of earth canals Addi- ticuallabor naeeed f ti of rrigataon p:pes should not increase cs:t.3 Èo ar, -:Ce <.v-e~xi

>and_Pe aration and >utuaOnrnrations

14. Agricultural operations provided bv the Deveiopment Centers (CV's) on a contaactuai basis Lor sugarcane narters comrprise in-sequence 7oughiug, usualy to a depth of about 30 cm, leme llng and harrowing, ridging and plantItng Ridges are 1.50 ri apart. 6 NTIK 52:?6:18 ? nZ dressing cf 800 kg is applîed at the bSttotm of sallow furrows on the top of ridges before planting. Se-jen ta eaght tons of cuttings are planted per ha. The cutïngs are covered with 3 tao 4 c,L cf sol' arid simultaneously an irr4gation furrow is opened in the. inter-row. At hls stage the ridge stands et approximately 30 ci aboave the base ol.the irrigatlcn furraw, Frequent a.nd llîght ANNX 4 Page 7 irrigations are applied in the early stages until germination is completed, a'ter which normal irrigation cycles are resumed. There follows weeding, light hoeing and earthing up, to continue building up the ridges. A second application of 200 kg nitrogenous fertilizer providing 75 units N per ha is made about three months after planting.

15. Iminediately following harnest, if the previous crop has not been burnt, it is important to remove the trash from the cane row and pile it along the inter-row. Fertilizers are then applied on the cane stools along the row, followed by simultaneous weeding and earthing-up operations. Irrigations are effected according to an established schedule until the next harvest.

16. Because of the occurrence of large areas of heavy soils, the authorities concerned with cane cultivation in the Rharb are fully conscious of the importance of adequate drainage to insure satisfactory crops, and under Sebou I tile drains are provided in areas where drainage is inadequate. In spite of this, a number of cane fields show irregular and patchy growth, yellow foliage, and stunted canes indicating unsatisfactory drainage. Further attention should be given to this problem, particularly in view of the long cycle under which sugarcane will be grown. The possibility of using aerial or satallite infra-red photography to define areas of defective drainage should be explored. The schedule of land preparation might have to be modified to include deep sub-soiling and cross ploughing with heavy duty equipment. Such experiments should be given priority by the agriculturai engineering section of ORMVAG.

17. Mechanical cultivation of ratoons - based on the Louisiana system - utilizing high clearance tractors straddling the cane row is another possibility which should be studied. It is felt also that drainage would be greatly improved by this method, which establishes much higher cane ridges than are used in the present system. The Louisiana system would necessitate a widening of cane inter-rows to two meters instead of 1.5 m but a double row planting system would insurè an optimum plant density.

18. The present system whereby ORMVAG carries out the heavy agricultural operations and charges fixed rates to the farmer appears to be excel- lent. The mission was informed by the Minister of Agriculture, that future policy was to divorce ORMVAGfrom these contractual operations, which will be carried out by Farmers' Cooperatives. It is suggested that during the period of expansion of cane cultivation in the Rharb, the present system should continue as it offers greater safeguards to insure adequate standards of cultivation.

The Effect of Flooding on Sugarcane

19. Flooding of fields durîng the winter months is one of the hazards of cane cultivation in the Rharb. The extent of damage to sugarcane plantations is dependent on depth and duration of flooding, temperature at time of flooding, silt deposition, rate of flow, and cane varieties. Most varieties are tolerant when they are dormant or provided the growing point and top- most leaves are not submerged. r qM-à 4

20. A study or flood p'rOtactien by consnatant ts tQ the °y raulic Depart- ment of the Minist-r of ubl-f Uorks related yi rds'eduction of fuliy developed sugarcanae to duration of flioodîng; &e followig-ig figaures are q.oted:

Duratio^ cFoidj(aysZ Reduction ir Cane Yield

It must be stressea9, fiw-ha vuatld escape major injurv cceur î.E ratoon crops harvesteu from h ttc. cnd SE t'-e- -ttr he ceiing autumn and in whîci littie grco,r.n hwoacava taken place '. t3-t a fiood season, On the basîs cf a harvesting season o-2 180 da&-ys, thie area or such late harvested cane would rerrase:½ @ etof he Z are .

Harnvestin, Loadin and Tracs-ort

21. Harvesting, loading and transport of sintgar'e fsehr tproject area have been examined in detail îtî tco studLes n -- ileth alternataive proposals have been analyzed.

22. Burning of cane before harvest reanains a controversial question and ORMVAGauthorities have exp7ressed tnei.r

23. The output of oae con of cut can oer man aoposed Dy ORsAC is extremely low in comparison with otaer eugarcane vcucng couzntraes,particularly as the cane cuttetr wil11 not 'have te load fie canes but stack them either in the field for machanicai loadlng or at the edge of t'Ie field. The output of cane eutters i tha recently1 constItuted sugar industry of Malawi, has been 14 tons cane cut par day by orce man ta 1973 ustng the Australian cane kîife specifically des4gned for cane cutting and an advance on the knif e now tn use in Morocco Papent ornan output hasis ighct improve per- formanceand is common 3ractice easewhere. CP-Lin4onsdiffered as to the avail- ability cf la'oo for harveet and ZIhe ipzrtant factor iS raceiîvng further careful consideration. Iaianicalnarvesting hold hae avoided 1if possibole. Besides being laess fnafictnt haadhan cuttin.g, tbhisorerationrequiring heavYyequipmant to bhemovçed taî a large n-ner cf' ralativeiy $aLl fLelds, vould be dif-ficult to OrganiCa-a `ioeçver9 eery effort0 shoUod be made to mechanize the Ioadîn,g eperation provided the propose-d trials inGldicate it to be necessary. Side oadirg trailers shculd be usead so that tiae stalks line in the long axis cf the v,hehcle, Self: lcaders tall; whlW-îc;h fhe canes are bundled e LNNEX 4 Page 9

at right angles to the tractor would not be accepted by road authorities because of the width of the load, The effect of in-field mechanical loading on cane stools and on soil compactionshould be studîed. in the case of damage to stools, it is probable that an additional tillage operationwill have to be carried out to restructure the ridges after loading.

24. During the first two or three sugar campaigns, canes would be trans- ported direct fromrthe field to factory in eight ton lorries, ONT being entirely responsible for transport. During thîs period, ORMVAG would undertake experimentscomparing self loading and hand loaded tractor drawn trailers to transport cane fron fîelds to a transfer station located on a tarmac road where the cane would be transferred to large (15 ton capacity) vehicles for transportationto the factory.

25. Depending on results obtained from these studies, the most economical method would be selected for adoption after 1977 or 1978 to transport the cane crop, which should then amount to between 220,000 and 265,000 tons.

26. Transport responsibilitieswould be shared between ORMVAG and ONT, the former for transportfrom field to transfer station, the latter from transfer station to factory.

27. The equipment required to experiment with these two methods (which is provided for in the cost estimates)would be:

6 tractors (at DH 30,000) 8 trailers (at DR 7,500) 2 self-loadingtrailers (at DH 12,000) 1 transloader

Sampling of Cane foruality

28. The proposed method consists of înserting an horizontal auger to a depth of approximately 1.20 m in the cane load. Two random samples are taken per lorry, mixed and analyzed. Ten lorries per field would be sampled at random. For alternative transportation, a cane sample should be taken from each 40 tons of cane. The principle of determining the average quality of canes from samples derived from each field appears to be sound and subject to less error than sampling from the production of each farmer. Detailed procedures to identify cane consignments.eill have to be worked out for cane directed to the factory via a transfer station. This aspect of the problem should be studied in conjunctionwith the loading and transfer experiments previouslydiscussed.

Sugar Cane Varieties

29. The only varieties under commercial cultivation.in Morocco, both in the Rharb and Moulouya areas, are CP 44101 and NCo 310 which occupied an * area of approximately 600 and 200 ha respectively in the Sebou in 1973. ALîNE~X4 Page 1 0

30. Both varieties produce satisfactory sugar yieIds and ratoon well. The yields of cane of NCo 310 and OP 44101 as determined trom multiplication plots are:

NCo 310 CP 44101 Age at Age at harvest TCO/a TC/ha/month harvest TC/ha TC/ha/month ltt Ratoons 14 67.0 4,8 12 75.7 63

2nd Ratoons 18 97.5 5.3 12 72.8 6,1 15 93.5 .2 1S 106.0 5.9

3rd Ratonns 12 55.0 4.6 12 85o0 7.1 15 78.5 5.3 15 80.9 5.4

31. NCo 310 is reputed to be more frost resistant than CP 44101 but is infected with mosaic, at Sidî Allal Tazi and possibly elsewhere, Its multiplication should be carried out with the greatest caution and wîth. material only from areas where no cases of the disease have been observed. All those concerned vith the agricultural development of the Sebou Valley are fully conscious of the importance of the varietal problems îu establishing a successful cane sugar industry. A vigorous program of varietal introduction and fiel expermentation tS necessary wth & view to releasing for cultivation a range of productive varleties.

32. CP 44101 and NCo 310 together with several other varîeties were introduced from Spain before 1962 (POJ 2725, POJ 2727, CO 290, TU 111l, 1149, 1376 and 2605); the other -,,îarieties were elîmînated because of thler poor performance or the presence of mosaie.

33. Fifteen varteties are naw beîng tested in variety trials or in ob- servatzon plots at Sidi-Al.al-Tazi wh4 le fîve are in observation plots following quarantine at the DRA Station at Kenîtra. The DRA at Sidi-Allal-Tazi has also establîshed varietal plots derived from heat treated cuttings, so as to provlde a source .cf pantîi'g material free from ratoon stunting disease uhoi.ftht -tIî5aaae ;3cetw in the te:ritory - to estalslih variety trials.

34. New întroducticns c4cane varieties shouid be continued On the basis dopted Uiîtherto of selacting prven.. varieties or those shawing promise for eamç6erÂa1 cultivation în sib--ropl cal augar areas, Thus varieties from LTouisana (L), Florlda (OF, YL)à, Natai (N, NCo), Northern India (Co), South Queensland and new South Wales (Q and C.SCRP named varetlats), Southern Bra21 (Q), Argeirinaa (sTL") Formosa (ZF) should be given preferexce when introductions are planned. e ANNEX 4 Page 14

35. Concerning the source of planting material, varieties should be introducedonly from experimentalstations with adequate phytosanitarypre- cautions. The USDA Plant Quarantine Station at Beltsville,U.S.A., the East African Quarantine Station at Muguga, Kenya (EAFFRO),and that of IRAT at Nogent sur Marne, France, among others offer the best guarantee of freedom from disease, but may not have stocks of all the desired varieties. What- ever the source of planting material, a quarantine perîod is împerative. Present practice is to quarantine sugar cane for six months in the glasshouse at the DRA station in Kenitra and transfer heat treated cuttîngs therefrom to observationplots outside. Canes în the greenhousesare kept so as to provide more planting materîal at the conclusionof the observation period. The quarantinegreenhouses ire admirable for citrus and other crops, but should be modified for sugar cane, particu'arlywith regard to the height of the quarantine roomns

36. It is suggested that the quarantine, testing and multiplication procedures could be improved by growing the new introductionsfor a period of one year in the glasshouse, under the following schedule:

(a) canes grown for six months in quarantine greenhouses;

(b) canes cut and allowed to ratoon for another period of six months in the same container. Symptoms of diseases, such as leaf scald, would probably appear on the regrowth, if the stool carried latent infection;

(c) cuttings from (ii), heat treated against ratoon stunting disease (50°C for two hours in hot water) and grown în new containers in the glasshouse;

(d) after six months, cuttings from (iii), if healthy, planted in observation plots outside, Canes in the original container should not be used for propagation,but should be kept to supply planting material, în case cuttings planted outsîde fail to germinate;

(e) multiplicationof varieties from outdoor observation plots, one of the methods for rapid multiplicationof varîeties being adopted in order to accelerate the multiplicationof newly introducedvarieties to establish variety trials.

37. In addition to testing of new varieties în trials of orthodox design, preliminary screening of more promising varieties should be undertaken in observation plots at a number of sites representativeof the range of soîl and climatic conditions în the sugar cane growing areas, Usefùl prellminary informationwould thus become avaîlable on the behavior of new varîeties under different environmentalconditions, prior to the establishmentof formal trials e to assess the relative economîc performance of new varieties. ANNEX4 Page 12

Diseases

38. The sugar cane disease situation has been well reviewed by H. Barat Scientîfic Adviser to Institut Recherches Agronomie Tropicale in two reports available at DRAcovering vîsits in 1969 and 1970.

(a) Leaf Scald

Suspected cases of leaf scald were observed on CP 52-68, introduced the previous year and growing at Sidi-Allal-Tazi. This variety vas subsequently destroyed, and apparently no further cases of leaf scald vere observed. As this disease may be present in a latent form, particular care should be taken to keep new introductions under observation for several years, A useful method is to cit the canes, and vithhold vater after regrowth of suckers, when typical leaf symptoms are usually produced on infected canes.

(b) Mosaîc

The disease was first observed by Rieuf in the Rharb in 1965. Barat reported mosaîc in 1970 from both the Atlantîc and Mediterranean areas. Infected plants of NCo 310 were seen at Keria ben Aoudal, at Ksar el Kebir and at Larache. The disease was not observed by him at Sidi-Allal-Tazi. In the reports already referred to, Barat gives a full account of control measures which should be adopted wlth a view to freeing the cane areas from mosaic before large-scale plantings are made. Unfortunately the situation appears to have worsened since 1970, at least at Sili-Allal-Tazi, where several cases of mosaic were seen on NCo 310. It is suspected that strain D of the virus is concerned. Although NCo 310 is reputed to be tolerant to mosaic li Louisiana, at Sidi-Allal-Tazi severe stunting of infected stools occurred. Foliage of apparently normal stalka also showed mosaîc symptoms. The presence of mosaîc represents a potential threat to the development of the Rharb cane sugar îndustry, partîcularly in view of the seasonally cool conditions which prevail in that area. Serlous and urgenL etepa must therefore be taken in an attempt to eradicate the disease. This vill involve very close coordination between the services of DRA and ORWAG and will also require full coop- eration with the owners of sugarcane plots. The followîng field program i8 suggested in this connection:

(î) training of agricultural technicians attached to the ORMVAG Development Centera, to recognize infected canes;

(il) determine incidence of the disease throughout the Rharb area, by systemtnatic ix spectioin of al f ieIde, priotrty being given to areas planted with NCo 310; ANNEX4 Page 13

(iii) careful rogueing of infected stools in fields showing not more than 2% infection. On no account should these fields be used as a source of planting material;

(iv) uprooting of fields showing infection greater than 2%. Repeated inspectionswill be necessary to ensure that there is no regrowth of uprooted stools;

(v) creation of nurseries in areas free from mosaic using cuttings from fields in which no cases of the disease have been detected;

(vi) frequent inspectionsof nurseries to ensure that ne cases of mosaic are present; and

(vii) uaintaining nurseries free from grass weeds and ensuring that maize is not cultivated in the vicinity of nurseries.

Specialized studies should be implemented as part of the mosaic control program as follows:

(i) an assessmentof the incidence and prevalence of insect vectors. At least one of them is known to occur in the £Lharb,namely Rhopalosiphummaidis;

(ii) presence of mosaic on other hosts, both wild and cultivated; and

It is thought that the problem of mosaic is of sufficient importance to justify:

(i) the visit, at an early date, of a Consultant Plant Pathologist possessing experience in sugarcane disease to assess fully the present situation and advise on control measures and their implementation. Priority would be given to the Rharb area but the situationwould also be assessed in the Moulouya and Loukos areas. The Consultant would alse advise on ratoon stunting disease and on quarantineprocedures;

(ii) the visit of an experienced entomologistto coincide with the plant pathologist'svisit to advise on the present situation regarding possible disease vectors în the cane growing areas and formulate a detailed program of investigations. He should also advise on the borer problem, which is referred to below; ANNEX 4 Page 14

(iii) the appointment of an Moroccan Entomologist for a period of two years, vith possibility of extension for a further perîod of two years. The person selected should have had experience7inthe transmis3îonof viru8 diseases; and

(iv) provision of adequate assistance from the DRA and ORMVAG for field and laboratory investigations.

This disease is suspected to occur in Morocco, because of the large scale introduction 10 to 15 years ago of plantîng material from Spain where ratoon stuntîng disease is reported to be prevalent. No nodal symptoms of the disease, however, have been seen, although substantial differences in yield have been recorded between untreated and heat treated canes. On the assumption that the disease îs present, the DRA has wisely decided to establish nurseries from heat treated cuttings. This sound practice should continue but it îs suggested that a modification of the present method - based on experience in other sugarcane countries - should be adopted vith a view to producing larger quantities of planting material at a reduced cost. This method would entail the establishment of primary nurserîes froa hot water treated cuttinga which would be subsequentlyextended to secondary nurseries without heat treatment. Cuttings from the secondary nurseries would be used to estabiîsh commercial plantings which in turn could also provide planting material from the first ratoon if no evidence of disease îs found în the field. This technique would reduce the quantity of cuttings to be treated very appreciablywîthout any great risk of reinfection providing reasonable precautions are taken. Sterilizationof knîves is iînperativewhen preparing cuttinga at all stages. An endeavor should be made to confirm the presence of ratoon stunting disease by inoculating the juice from suspected canes into test varieties which are known to ex- hibit nodal symptoms.

(d) Other Diseases

A n=mber of diseases of minor importance have been reported from Morocco including Alternarîa tennuîs, Clados2ornum gramineum,gCni 2 sorl= vinosum, Mvcosphaerella tulasnï and Phoma insidiosa. These organisms can only be considered as saprophytes or facultative parasites. Although the fungus whlch causes pineapple disease of sugar cane (Ceratotytis Êaradoxa)is not reported from Morocco, ît is highly probable that it occurs there in view of its worldwide dispersal. Thîs pathogen causes a rot of cuttings and is readily controlled by immersion of the setts in an appropriate fungicide. e ANNEX4 Page 15

39. Morocco is free from the major sugar cane diseases, namely: F:Lji disease (virus), Gummosis (Xanthomonasvasculorum), Leaf scald (X. albilineans), Chlorotic streak (possiblyof viral origin), Smut (Ustilagoscitamineae) and Red rot (Physalosporatucumanensis). Every endeavor should be made to guard against the introductionof these diseases by means of legislationto forbid the importationof sugar cane other than by Government, and by appropriate quarantine measures.

40. It should be noted that smut has been introducedin several African territories in recent years (Upper Volta, Ivory Coast). Although the fungus is killed by thermotherapy (hot water at 54°C for 20 minutes), when present in cane setts, its eradication is extremely difficult because of spore dispersal by wind.

Insect Pests

41. The major insect pest 3f sugar cane in Morocco is the borer belonging to the genus Sesamia, of which ten species are reported to attack sugar cane, and many cereals and grasses as well. The species concerned in Morocco is S. nonagrioideswhich occurs in Spain and countrîes bordering the Western shores of the Mediterranean.

42. Control of this pest on sugar cane in the Rharb is carried out at present by insecticidaltreatment. Although this practice may be justified, it is felt that more informationis required on the actual extent of damage to confirm the beneficial effects of treatment. The advice of a consultant entomologistshould be sought in this respect.

43. Of the eleven species of vectors known to transmit the mosaic virus Rhopalosiphummaidis occurs in Morocco. The study of the incidence of vectors in relation to mosaic should receive high priority.

44. The insect fauna associated with sugar cane does not appear to have been well defined in Morocco and requires study. The terms of reference of the Consultant Entomologistreferred to elsewhere should be widened to advise on this matter.

Rodents

45. No informationcould be obtained on the incidence and damage caused by rodents in sugar cane fields. In areas where rats represent a problem satisfactory control is obtained with "waxed biscuits" containing 0.5% of an anti- coagulant rodenticide. These biscuits are dîstributed on the field at a general rate of about 125 per hectare, a basic principle being that ample bait must be available for unrestricteduptake during a period of about two weeks. e ANNEX 4 Page 16

Weeds and Weed Control

46. The control of weeds ir sugar cane plantations is essential to ensure high yields. Annual weeds do not represent a serious problem and can be easily eradicated by hand, particularlvat the early stages of growth. Paren- nial weeds on the other hand often represent a challenge,which can only be met by the use of chemicals, for which the farmer must be assisted wîth technical advice, as to the product to be used, its concentratior.,timing of the operation and precautions to be taken to avoid damnageto the sugar cane crop. The most aggressive perennial weeds in the sugar cane area of the Rharb are Cynodon Dac1onE , Sorghum halepense, Paspalum digîtatumn Pancum ren and Cyperus spIp.

47. Taclimicalinformat'iQon on the control of these weeds by chemicals îs readîly available, both concerning the products themselves and under what conditions they should be applied.

Traînîng, Research and Extension

48. Agriculture training in Morocco îs provided at four levels:

(a) Ingeieu a. Studies for the "Ingenieur d'Etat" last six years from the BaccalaureatScientifique, at the Institut Agro- nomique HlassanIl, Rabat. The diploma conferred is that of IrngenieurAgronome.

(b) Ingenieu A National schools provide training for this category: that of Agriculture (Meknes),of Forestry (Sale), Rural Work (Rabat) and Food Technology (Rabat). The courses extend for four years, the BaccalaureatScientifique being the minimum qualification for admission. The title conferred în the field of agriculture ls Ingenieur Travaux Agricole.

(c) Ajoint Technique, Traîning for Adjoint Technique is given at eight schools: three schools of Agriculture (Rabat, Marakesch, Berkare), one of horticulture (Meknes),of rural work (Meknes), of agriculturalengineering (Sidi Bouknadel), of animal husbandry (Kestra), and of forestry (Sale). Studies last two years, ad- :iissio.n îs based on an entry examination after the "5eme annee scientifique", (BEPC). The diploma ls styled "Adjoint Technique agrIcole" or "horticole", etc., depending on the subject studied.

(d) t Technioue, The category: "Agents Techniques" are trained at either one of three centers of "formation agricole" at Tiflet, Chaouia, Satal Boutahiar or at the School of Forestry (Sale) or the School of Arnimal Husbandry (Kenitra). The courses extend over a period of two years (for Agriculture) and admIssion is by an entrance examination for students having completed the `3eme annee secondaire". ANNEX 4 Page 17

49. The training programs should be able to provide the scientific and technical personnel which will have to be recruited for the agriculturalex- perimental and extension work needed by the sugar industry of Morocco at large. The number of trained personnel required for the agriculturalaspects of sugar production in the project would be approximately 40. The most appropriate center for the training of sugar factory technicians and chemists would be the Ecole Nationale de TechrLologieAlimentaire at Rabat, and such training should include work in the sugar factories operating in Morocco as well as attachment for several months to a sugar research center abroad. Projected national requirementsand aaticipated output of trained personnel at the four levels are as follows:

Number needed as forecast December Output 1971 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987

Ingenieur d'Etat 1250 74 203 495 370 1245 Ingenieur d'Application 2100 172 376 893 1618 2343 Adjoints Techniques 7100 1015 2236 3816 6026 8236 Agents Techniques 11400 1872 2615 5282 8257 11232

Abstracted from Ministere de l'Agriculture- Preparation du plan 1973-77. Rapport du sous groupe formation,Avril 1972.

Research and Experimentation

50. The Director of ORMVAG felt very strongly that the existing research organizationfor sugarcane centered on the DRA was unsatisfactoryand that there should be a special division of sugar cane studies in his organization but specialized disciplinesrequiring laboratory facilitieswould remain under DRA. An alternative scheme is proposed in which the sugar cane center of ORMVAG would be responsible for three main groups of activities: field experimentation,training, agriculturalengineering and transport. Nurseries to provide disease free planting material to farmers should also be under the control of ORMVAG. The success of the scheme would depend on the very close collaborationof the proposed Sugar Cane Center with specialized services of the DRA.

51. Fundamental problems such as those relating to pathology, entomology physiology and nutrition should be investigatedby the specializeddisciplines of the DRA which should also continue to be responsible for the introduction and quarantine of new cane varieties. Heat treatment of cuttings should also remain under the control of the quarantine officer, although the possibillty of înstalling heat treatment plants at each of the CMV's should be studied. The ORMVAGsugar cane center should be responsible for variety trials, fertilizer trials, herbicide trials, water requirement and irrigationcontrol, drainage, planting methods, and on soil compaction and the need for interrow tillage. The center should also undertake studies on the crop cycle in relation to cane yield, sucrose content, age and date of harvest and on harvesting methods, and cane loading and transport. AM-2'X 4 Page 1 8

52. Apart from ex'perlimental work, the sugar cane center should also be responsible for routine operations related to the multiplication of varîeties, establishment of nurseries:, and should contral the procedures for sampling of farmers cane delîvered to the factory and its analysis for sucrose content.

53. The specialized sections of DRA should undertake at an early date investigations on raosaic clisease as stated prevîously whichn will necessitate close collaboration between pathologists and entoffio ogiats Other questions, in particular ratoon stunting disease, fungicidal treatment of cane setts, and the economics of ïnsecticidal treatment agaiînst borer are also priority problens. Routine foliar and so-l analysis should be organized for nutri- tional studies and consequent fertilizer programis. In this connection, the off icer in charge of laboratory work for leaf analysis should spend at least three months in a sugar country such as Maurîtîus to study al 1 the aspects of foliar diagnosis, and its interpretation.

54. It is suggested that the following man power structure would be adequate to carry out the experimental program outlined above at least in the first few years of operation:

(a) one Ingenieur Agronome assisted by a sugarcane specîalist consultant for the first two years, in charge of the Center;

(b) three Ingenieurs Agronomes or Ingenieur Travaux Agricoles in charge of experimentation, training and extension, agricultural engineering and transport;

(c) fifteen Adjoints Techniques, one attached to each CMV two at each of the three divisions, two responsible for nurseries and sucrose content of farrners canes during the crop, and three attached to the speciaMized laboratories of DRA;

(d) twenty Agents Techniques attached to the CMV's.

55. In addition to the scientifieand technical personnel required above it is recommended that the 3 short-term consultants, liated în AUnae 7 8hould be employed as soon as possible, and that subject to the findings and recommendations of the consultant Pathologist and Entomologistan Entomologistand a Pathologist should be employed for a period of two years to work on insect and disease problems of the sugarcane,more particularlymosaic.

56. The practical and economic value of experimentalwor. c-anenly be fully realized through arnefficient extension service. The structure planned by ORMVAG whereby the CMV will provide extension services for sugarcane cultivationappears to be very sound. Each of three Centres (later tc,be increased to four) will be responsible for an area of 1.500 to 2,000 ha of sugarcane grouping about 500 farmers. Each centre is headed by 5i "Adjoint Technique" who is assisted by five agents techniques. . ANNEX 4 Page 19

57. It is suggested that the CMV's should be placed under one Ingeaiîeur A;gronomeor Ingenieur d'Applicationwho will be responsible for training of staff, coordinatingextension work between the centres, establishingliaison with the specialistservices of the DRA and with the Experimentationand the AgriculturalEngineering Sections of the sugar cane centre of ORMVAG. Courses of lecture, seminars, demonstrationsand practical classes will be under his control, but will involve close collaborationwith the specializedservices of the DRA. Field problems encounteredby the Adjoint, and Agents Techniques should be referred to him.

58. Related to the organizationof an extension service is the training of the officers themselves in matters related to sugar cane agronomy. This aspect of extensionhas already been referred to in previous reports on the Sebou project, but unfortunatelya visit by several senior officers of ORMVAG to different sugar countries planned for 1973 could not be implemented.

59. A program of visits by all officers of ORMVAG concernedwith sugar cane development should be plannad, in order that annually and for a number of years a team of ingenieursand techniciansshould visit a ntimberof sugar cane countries. The following grouping of countries is suggested tentatively:

(a) Egypt - Iran - Mauritius - South Africa (b) India - Queensland - Taiwan (c) Louisiana - Guiana - West Indies

Such în-servicetraining overseas for staff of ORMVAG, SUNACAS and DRA would be provided through 40 man months of fellowships.

April 25, 1974

WROCCO

SEBOU Il DEV1DPMENT YRDJECT

Annual Su,œarcane Production

Unit 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 Area Planted ha 800 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 Area Abandoned ha 600 500 500 500 700 1,200 Area Under Cane ha 800 2,000 3,200 4,400 5,600 6,200 6,900 7,600 8,100 8,100 Area Harvested ha 800 1,800 2,500 2,900 3,l00 3,600 3,800 4,300

X OI Area under Cane % Harvested 25 40 144 46 45 50 h7 53 Cane Production PMGotons 87 169 226 274 296 351 373 h28 Harvesting Season days (2,500 tons/day factory capacity) 32 65 88 107 116 138 146 168 Sugar Production '000 tons @ 9.4 tons cane/ton sugar 9.1 17.7 23.7 28.7 31.0 36.7 39.1 44.7

May 20, 1974 e. ANEX 5 Page 1

KINGDOMOF MOROCCO

SEBOUII DEVELOPMENTPROJECT

Su&arcane Processîng

Genera:L

1. The characteristicsof the factory are those of a conventional cane sugar factory equipped for producing raw sugar. However, additional equipment would be provided to permit the production of high-grade plantation white sugar.

Cane Weighing and Unloading

2. Two cane weighbridgesof 40 ton capacity each will însure the weighing and taring of cane at an average rate of about 240 tons per hour equivalent to 30 lorry loads of eight tons or 16 semi-trailerunits carry- îng 15 tons each. The unloading system will comprise:

(a) Two lorry tippers of 15 ton capacity for direct feeding of the milling plant; and

(b) One lorry tipper of the same capacity for stackîng cane to be crushed at night. Feeding of thîs cane to the mills will be effected by two overhead travelling cranes each fitted wîth a grab of 4-ton capacity and servicing a total stacking area of 24 x 70 m in which a stacking height of about 10 m would be possible.

Cane Sampling and Analysîs

3. Sampling and analysis of cane consignmentswill be carried out by a core sampler method, the equîpment for which comprises:

(a) one 200 mm diameter mobile core sampler;

(b) one laboratory shredder;

(d) one 5-kg balance fitted wlth a printout devîce; and

(e) one automatic saccharimeter. . Provision has also been made for determinationof extraneousmatter in cane consignments. ANNM 5 Page 2

Cane Conveying and Preparation

4. The cane would be tipped from lorries on to a feed table, 6.0 x 1.2 m, fitted with a 20 RPM cane tumbler. From the feed table the cane will fall on to a 29 m long main carrier driven by a variable speed electrie motor, which elevates it to a 1.60 m wide, rubber belt variable speed conveyor. Two sets of kniveu are located on the inclined part of the main carrier: the first set of 28 knives, the second of 72; both rotatîng at 600 MPMand each driven by a 300 HP electrLc motor.

Milling

5. From the rubber belt conveyor the prepared cane will fall into a "Donnelly" chute or hopper which will feed the first unit of the milling train consisting of four 0.810 x 1.600 m self-settingmills each îndepend- ently driven by a single stage steam turbine. The first mill turbine will develop a maximum 570 HP and the three other units 385 HP. Each mill will be fitted with a "Donnelly" chute, an underfeed roller, two oleo-pneumatic accumulatorsand accessory equipment including imbibitionand juîce screening. Provision has also been made for a 12-ton overhead travelling crane, a lathe for re-grooving and an oven for re-shellingmill rollers.

Weighing, Heating and Clarification

6. Mixed juice from the mills will be weighed in a 150-ton/hourauto- matic scale of the "Servo-Balans"type fitted with a totalizer, a juice sampler and an automatic pre-liming system. The pre-limed cold juice will be pumped through a 170 m2 first juice heater fed with vapor bled from the second effect of the evaporator. The pH of the heated juice will be adjusted by addition of the required amount of lime, and the juice then pumped to a second juice heater, of 170 m2 heating surface, fed wîth vapor bled from the first effect of the evaporator. In this heater the juice temperature will be raised to about 103'C. The juice will then be allowed to flash in a flash-tankbefore flowing into an 8.0 m, 4-tray clarifier.

7. The clarificationstation is provided with all the equipiTent required for milk of lime preparation,addition and pH control, juice sulfita- tion for plantationwhite sugar manufacture, plus polyelectrolyteand phos- phoric acid addition in case of need.

Filtration

8 2 The clarifier muds will be filtered in a rotary vacuum filter of 53 m, the filtrationstation comprisingail the ancillary equipment required: cyclone separator for bagacillo, mud mîxing tank, filtrate tank, recirculationtank, barometrîc condenser and vacuum pump, wash water pump, filtrate pump, recirculationpump and belt conveyor for cake disposal. . ANNEX5 Page 3

Evaporation

9. Clarified juice will flow into a receiving tank and then be pumped through a 170 m2 juice heater fed with exhaust steam. The juice heating arrangement is such that the clarified juice heater may be used either as primary or secondary heater should one of these have to be cleaned while crushing.

10. From the clarified juice heater the juice will flow into a multiple effect evaporatormade up of a 990 m2 first effect plus four identical units of 660 m2 each. It is not intended, however, that the evaporator should function as a quintuple effect, the fifth unit being linked in parallel wîth the third and fourth effects, and thus allowiîigfor cleaning of either wîthout closing down. All the tubes are of stainless steel, grade F. 17, 38 mm ex- ternal diameter. The evaporator is fitted with five juice level regulators and an indicator/controllerfor syrup density. Ancillary equipment includes condensate flash, drainage and pumping, syrup pumping, caustic soda washing equipment, ten mechanical rotary cleaners and an alarm system on the condensate pumped to the boiler station.

Crystallization

l1. The main items of equipment for the crystallizationstation are:

(a) Three storage tanks for syrup, A molasses and B molasses, each made up of three compartmentsof 150 hl each.

(b) Three calandria vacuum pans for A and B strikes having the following characteristics:

Capacity 400 hl Heating surface 240 m2 Footing volume 131 hl

(d) Two magma crystallizers,open type, capacity 165 hl each, for A and B strikes.

(e) One magma crystallizer, closed type and under vacuum, capacity 235 hl, for C strikes.

(f) Two A massecuite and three B massecuite crystallïzers,air- cooled, capacity 410 hl each.

(g) Four C massecuite crystallizers,water-cooled, capacity 410 hl each.

(h) Three pumps for A, B and C massecuites. ANN'EX5 Page 4

12. The crystallizationstation will also be equipped for producing plantation white sugar by remelting A-sugar, sulfiting and boillng the remelt. The equipment includes:

(a) A 25 a.3 per hour remelter.

(b) A sulfiting tank, 40 1i.

(d) A 25 m. /hour centrifugal pump.

(e) A 3-compartmentreceiving tank, total capacity 450 hl.

(f) Two vacuum pans of 250 hl capacity and 175 m. heating surface each.

(g) One 410 hl water-cooled crystallizer.

(h) One massecuite rota pump of 18 .m3 per hour.

CentrifuRals

13. The centrifugal station will include a battery of three automatic "Compact" 5 in. x 42 in. machines for the curing of A massecuite, four FC 1000 continucus centrîfugalsfor B and C massecuites and a fifth continuous PC 1000 machine for double curing of the C-sugar. All these machines will be fully equipped with the ancillary equipment required including feed troughs, control equipment and various accessories. In addition, the centrifugal station will comprise:

(a) Five molasses storage tanks, and five molasses pumps.

(b) One magma seed mixer for B sugar.

(d) One magma seed mixer for C sugar after 2nd curing.

(e) Three magma pumps.

(f) One centrifugal pump for remelt.

(g) One magma conveyor.

(h) One molasses scale, "Servo Balans" type, 6 ton/hour.

(1) One molasses receiving tank.

(j) One molasses pump, 4 M.3/hour. (k) One molasses cooling unit. ANNEX5 Page 5

Raw Sugar Conveying and Drying

14. The A sugar from the centrifugalswill discharge into a shaker conveyor and thence on to a rubber belt elevator conveyor of 15-ton/hour capacity feeding a sugar drier fitted with both heating and cooling elements. A vertical elevator will convey the dried sugar to a 15-ton/hourscale of the "Servo Balans" type. The weighed sugar will finally be taken by an elevator to a 68 m. long rubber belt conveyor for bulk storage.

15. Provision is made for screening, bagging, conveying and stacking plantationwhite sugar in 50 kg bags.

Condensationand Refrigeration

16. Two barometric condensers will be provided - one of 2.025 m. diam. for the evaporator and the C massecuite pan, the other of 2.40 m. for the A, B and remelt pans - and two 4,000 m.3 per hour vacuum pumps. Injection 3 water will be pumped to the condensersby two centrifugalpumps of 1,250 m. per hour capacity. Two similar units, plus a spare, will be available for pumping water from the condensers to the refrigerationsystem which has a capacity of 2,300 m.3 per hour.

Steam Production

17. The boiler station will include the following main equipment:

(a) A water softening plant of 25 m.3 per hour.

(b) A 25 m.3 per hour pump to take the soft water to a storage tank of 250 m.3 capacity.

(d) One boiler feed tank, 40 m.3 capacity.

(e) One bagasse conveyor 1.2 m wide by 56 m long to convey the bagasse from the mills to the boiler plant.

(f) Three tanks for storage of heavy and light fuel oil, with the necessary pumping system.

(g) A 0.5 m wide by 20 m long bagasse conveyor for conveying excess baggase to a 10 m diameter bagasse incinerator.

(h) Two 37 ton/hour steam boilers having the following characteristics:

Steam chest pressure 26 bars Steam temperature after superheater 3300C Each boiler will be equipped with pneumatic spreader stokers and tipping ash grates and burn bagasse and/or fuel oil. When ANNEX 5 Page 6

burning only fuel oil, however, capacity is limited to 40% of total.

(i) One economizer or feed wate:rheater.

ElectricityGeneration

18, Electricitywill be generated in a 3,500 KVA turbo-alternator having the following characteristics:

Stean pressure 20-25 bars Steam temperature 330°C Back pressure 1.7 bars Speed reduction 9000:1500 RPM

Raw Sugar Storage

19. Raw sugar will be stored in bulk in a silo 35 m wide by 98 m long havîng a capacity of 20,000 tons. The silo will be equipped for sugar delivery at the rate of 70 tons per hour.

Molasses Storage

20. Molasses will be stored in a 6,500 m. storage tank equipped for steam heating of the molasses and with a 17 m.3 per hour delivery pump.

Laboratory

21. A laboratory, 18 x 8 m, will be provided, fully equipped with all the instruments required for carrying out process chemical control.

April 25, 1974 ANNEXm6 Page 1

KINGDOM OF MOROCCO

SEBOUII DEVELOPMENTPROJECT

Project Works

General

1. The project is located in the Rharb Plain about 100 km northeast of Rabat and is a follow-up to the Sebou I Irrigation Project which included developmentof 38,300 ha of new irrigation,rehabilitation of 5,000 ha of existing irrigated land and improvement to 26,700 ha of rainfed agriculture in an area of 90,000 ha gross located on the left bank of the Sebou river.

2. The project would provide flood protection forr the area being developed for irrigation under the previous project, constructionof a sugarcane factory to process the sugarcane now being planted in the area together with a plant to treat effluent from both the new sugarcane and existing sugar beet factories at Mechra Bel Ksiri and improvementsto the project area road network, and constructionof a bridge over the Sebou river to facilitate transportationof sugarcane and other crops.

Flood Protection Works

3. Flood protection works to be provided by the project would comprise constructionof dikes around the irrigation sectors and works in the flood channels Y and Z (see Map 10899) to adapt and reinforce the infrastructure which would be submerged during floods (roads, railway line and transverse drainage canal). In addition,minor modificationswould be undertaken to adapt existing structures in irrigation sectors to the flood protection system and new housing would be constructed for families to be moved out of the flood escape channels.

(a) Dikes: For the most part, dikes would be quite small, from 1 to 2 meters high adjacent to the Sebou river, wîth a free-boardof 0.70 meter and a crown width of 1.5 meter. They would be made of locally excavated earth and would be protected where necessary by earth-groynesagaînst erosion by flood-water. In designing the dikes it will be necessary to ensure that in the event of their being breached, the depth of water retained within the previously protected area would not be so great as to preclude the residents walking to safety. Dike lengths and volumes in each flood protection sector would be as follows: A WEX 6 -agee2

Flood Protection Dikes Eart2n Groynea Sector Lengths VL ms: ni Zsh Volumes Toti Volume (km) ! 0 6-(t'Ž (million mS>

A 18 0.2350 c,250 B 25 -? Q402a 0.425 45 5. 07 0.490 DE 85 0. CeJ 0 o t 0.730 F 35 3 ° 0.350

TOTAL 208 2 letù 4$0 2.245

(b) Flood-Channe'l O, tha Yod-crSLand 1, the planned înfrastructure oilukbe pro:'ec'L ariâïnst exceptional f looda, the overf low dîscha-gae ofai SchLicu6Ld w33 De MI/Sec i n Y Channel and 700 a ,msec în Z chL iûaîh infrastructure works crossing the channels aYe99 a ' .'xan drainage canal, road R.S 220 and tne Tan giers-Fae srngla track raillwvay lne îa Channel Y and î-n Channel 2 s naima5n raa-age ccr±-ia:Land road R.S 220. The necessasryworks aSJ-LC cj ist oaf

M1) diversion totmrs the Sesou Ji ehe draRna-e canal crossingY and Z channels2 so as to prevant the canal from being by'he SfLt suspended în overflots. A fiap-ga'ùe S$ nlucecurein the Sebou dike would prévuent the Seboau wster frain f lowirg back into the canals cdaurng floo The dîvLrsion lengths woul-d a 300 -ar 'id 3000 nespecftvealy for channels Y and Z$ `îb3 draîing tn n'als have a depth of 3 maters, a cass ectro-s n oif 15 m2 an a discharge ai about 3 n 3 zn.c:

(if) constructorn$ $a-i a ri2.sc bata- 440 meters long vith 12 meter spanrs between lenrst

(iii) modification of roada ta permit submersion either by reconstructfng the road at rmard leavel or by protecting the doiwstream slope of the existîng road embankment 1tibIah oui:.d ser'-ve, îf nessssw to controi the flowi rrnto the channel sud to grevnt silt deposition on hea road. At p£rsent roada arr bui t on embankments of about 0.5 n cr 7I in he±gt, u.-c 5Would be destroyed by ova:iZw

(iv) protectIr t %he dikezs agdacent ta thr channels from erosaorn by te f load f''-ÈsaaS 9s Lc

(v) lave llng ai f o chaenrne'3 istakea insofar as requ±red to sump ar th for &tksz canstrcton, ANNEX 6 Page 3

(i) flap-gates to prevent backup of flood water into the drainage systems of protected sector8;

(il) extension of dikes to encltse pumping stations and in Sector A, to the Sidi Aldel Aziz bridge and to the gate structure supplying the R'Dom canal with Sebou water;

(iii) in Sector F, local works on Wadi R'Dom; and

(iv) constructionof houses for the 130 families which will be displaced from flood channels Y and Z.

Areas of land expropriatedfor embankmentsand in flood channels Y and Z would be as follows:

Sector Embankment Channel Y Channel Z Total (Ha) (Ha) (Ha) (Ha)

A 40 40 B 50 350 400 C 90 650 740 D&E 170 170 F 70 70 100 100

Total 520 350 650 1,520

4. Sugarcane Factory: The sugarcane factory to be provided under the project would be constructedat Mechra Bel Ksiri. The site selected ls on the north aide of the Mechra Bel KRiri - Sidi Allal Tazi road, itmmediately west of the existing Sugar Beet Factory. The existing electric power and water supply services for the Sugar Beet factory would also serve the new factory.

5. The factory which has been described in Annex 5 would employ a mill train for juice extraction in preference to diffusion. The detailed technical specificationsfor the factory and amendments thereto annexed to the construction contract have been examined and are satisfactory. Provision has been made by a modification to the original specificationsto include refin- ing equipment to produce white sugar of 99.7% purity.

6. Road Improvements: Main roads vill require strengtheningand in * some cases videning to facilitate transport of sugarcane as well as to ac- le coimmodatethe anticipated increase in other local traffic which would in any case necessitate improvementsto mont main roads durîng the next decade. ANNEX 6 Page 4

A study of future traffie has been made by the Ministry of Public Works Roads Laboratory and the improvementsrequiired for each road have been based on the projected future traffic volumes. The main roads to be improved are:

Road Road Class No. km Compositionof Traffic (%) /a li&ht Medium Heavy

Class 1 Road RP 6 30.0 65 25 10 /b

Class 2 Roads RS 105 16.0 70 20 10 /b 207 4.5 210 30.0 211 13.5

94.0

/a Light - cars, light vans; Medîum = Small trucks upto 5.5 tons; Heavy - Trucks 10 tons average load.

/b Expected savings due to project are DH 0.06, 0.16 and 0.30 per vehicle per kilometer for light, medium and heavy traffic respectively;maintenance cast savings for Class 1 and Class 2 roads are estimated at DH 8,000 and DH 3,000 per km per year.

The existing bridge over the Sebou River at Mechra Bel Ksiri which carrîes both the Tangier - Fez railway lîne and the RP6 main road is already over- loaded by traffic during the sugar beet harvesting season. A new bridge will be constructed to relieve the congestion and provide for the future sugarcane traffic. It will be located adjacent to the sugar factorîes so that traffic to and from them will not have to pass through the town. Tender documents for this bridge have already been prepared.

7. An internal network of bituminous tertiary, and gravel and earth surfaced unclassifîedaccess roads has been designed. Bituminous surface has been specified for all roads which are expected to carry traffic in excess of 2O,000 tons/year. Roads carrying between 6,000 and 20,000 tons/year and all access roads in the areas to be used for rice cultivationwill have a gravel surface. Outside the rice growing area roads carrying less than 6,000 tons/yearwill have an earth surface and would be constructedduring the instaLlationof the irrigation and drainage systems and land levelling. Tlhelengths of tertiary and unclassified roads requiring improvementare:

Bituminous surfaced roads 100 km Gravel surfaced roads 226 km ANNEX 6 Page 5

In selecting the sites for sugarcane transfer centers, the need to use main roads for transport of cane to the centers by tractors and trailers should be avoided as far as possible. Where this cannot be avoided, it is proposed to construct tractor routes alongside the main roads. Provision for this has been included in the cost estimates.

8. Standards for constructionand improvementof the various classes of road have been establishedby the Roads Department of the Ministry of Public Works and are satisfactory.

April 25, 1974 e

e ..u\r,ïEX7 * P~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~age1

KINGD01IOF MOROCCO

SEBOU Il DEVELOPMENTPROJECT

Terms of Reference for Consultants

1. Consultant Plant Pathologist

The Consultant Plant Pathologistshould have at least five years practical experience in sugarcane diseases and should speak and understand French. He would undertake the following studies over a period of about four months:

(a) survey sugarcane cultivation throughoutMorocco to determine the incidence of mosaic dîsease, îts dîstribution9spread, severity and varietal reactions. The order of priority should be the Rharb, Moulouya, Larache, and other areas where sugarcane occurs;

(b) investigate the presence of mosaîc on other hosts and with the assistance of research centers overseas determîne the st:rain(s)of mosaic existing in Morocco;

(c) While engaged on the mosaic disease survey, determine the presence of other sugarcane diseases in Morocco, in particular leaf scald and ratoon stunting;

(d) formulate recomendatîons for the control of the disease and determine the necessity or otherwise of recommending the appointment of a Moroccan plant pathologist for a longer period to ensure that control measures are efficiently carried out;

(e) review the present cane quarantine procedure and advise on any necessary changes;

(f) he will advise on the procedure of heat treatment of cuttings and make recommendationson the establîshmentof nurserîes; and

(g) assist in the în-service training of local staff by a series of lectures and direct seminars on sugarcane dîseases and their control for extension officers of the different regional development offices.

2. Consultant Entomologïst

The consultant Entomologist should have at least five years practical experience in sugarcane inseet peste. He should speak and understand French. He would undertake the following studies over a period of about four muonths; Page 2

(a) survey sugarcane plantations of Morocco to determine the presence of vectors of mosalc disease, their abundance and the range of species concerned. The order of priority should be the Rharb, Moulouya, Larache, and other areas where sugarcane occurs;

(b) assist the Plant Pathologist in formulating control mieasures in as far as the role of insects in the spread of mosaic is concerned;

(c) study the Sesamia problem with particular reference to the efficacy of the insecticidal treatment practiced at present;

(d) obtain as much information as possible on the incidence and economic status of other sugarcane pests - încluding rodents - occurring in Morocco;

(e) determine the need to appoint a Moroccan Entomologist for an extended period to undertake more detailed studies; and

(f) assist in the in-service training of local staff by a series of lectures and direct seminars on sugarcane pests and their control for extension offîcers of the different regional development offices.

3. Consultant Agronomist

The Consultant Agronomist, who would be appointed for four months, should have at least ten years experience in sugarcane fîeLd experimentation. He should be fluent in the French language. Hls responsibilities wouiLd be to:

(a) formulate recommendations for the organization of a s&ugrcane center, within the structure of ORMVAG,and the number and qual- ifications of personnel required. The Center will be responsible for field experimentation, extension, coordination of mechanized field operatîons includîng harvest and transport of cane to the factory. In conjunction wîth the factory, the Center will be responsible for determining the sucrose content and quality of farmers' canes;

(b) specify the channels of commnication between the sugarcane center and the specialized services of the DRA, indicating the extent of laboratory assistance required for gugarcane investigations;

(d) advise on modifications to the existing field layout and establish a schedule of experimentation on alternative methods of cultîvation including the "Louisiana system". WNNEX7 Page 3

4. Sugarcane Speciali-t

The Sugarcane Consultant,who would be appointed for two years, should posses extensive knowledge and wide experience of sugarcane problems in different fields of agronomy, physiology, chemistry,pathology, entomology, or plant breeding. He should be fluent in the French language. He would advise and assist the Chief Agronomist of the Sugarcane Center as necessary and will initîally pay epecial attention to:

(a) the organizatioenof the Center and its proper functioning;

(b) establishinga program of experimentationwhich should include as a priority alternative layouts of fields and improved drainage;

(d) establîshmentof a in-servicetraîning program for extension officers.

5. Consultant Sugarcane Technologist

The Consultant Sugarcane Technologist,who would be appointed for six months, should have consîderableexperience in the sampling and analysis of sugarcane for the purpose of determining cane quality as a basis for pay- ment of cane growers. He would advise and assist ORMVAG in:

(a) establishmentof a sampling system for farmers cane delivered to the factory as a basîs for determinationof the quality of cane from a farmer or group of farmers. Special consideration will be given to the problem of identifying cane from such an individual or group where the transport system involves trans- ferring cane from small field trailers to large semi trailers for road haulage;

(b) establishment of a laboratory facillty to undertake the testing of cane samples, checking of the analysis procedures used and correlation of resulte with actual factory extraction performance; and

6. Pollution Control Engineer

A consultantwould be employed for five month to review the pollution of the Sebou river downstream of the Idriss I dam and make recommendations for an effluent treatment plant, to control pollution from the existing ANNEX 7 Page 4

sugar beet factory and new sugarcane factory at Mechra Bel Ksiri and the requirements for control of such other sources of pollution as exist.

7. Consultants Services for Flood Protection Works

Provision has been made for further studies that may be required, final design and bid document preparation,requîring an estimated 128 man months of consultant time for flood protectionworks, to be carried out by consultants for the Ministry of Public Works.

8. The invitation to bid, evaluatîon of bids and award of contract for flood protection works is to be undertakenby ORMVAG with technical assistance from the Hydraulic Department of the Ministry of Public Works. Provision has been made for consultants to assist ORMVAG in the subsequent field supervision of constructionand to provide other technical assistance to ORMVAG and training for project staff. The requirement is estimated at 4 man years.

9. SchistosomiasisStudy

An experienced consultant would be required to undertake a survey of the Rharb plain, over a period of two months, to determine the incidence of schistosomiasisand, if present, to make recommendations for its control with particular reference to the project area.

10. The man month requirementsof consultant services and fellowships for Moroccan staff is estimated as follows: Han Months Sugarcane Plant Pathologist 4 Sugarcane Entomologist 4 Sugarcane Agronomist 4 Sugarcane Specialist 24 Sugarcane Technologist 6 Pollution Control Engineer 5 Consultants to Ministry of Public Works for flood protection studies, final design and preparation of bid documents 128 Consultants to ORMVAGfor Supervision of Constructionof flood protection works 48 Consultant for SchistosomiasisStudy 2 Other Short-term Consultants (including consultants for sugar factory acceptance) 5 Total Consultants 230

Overseas Fellowships for In-service Training of ORMVAG, MARA(DRA) and SUNACASstaff 42 e May 23, 1974 KINGDOM OF MOROCCO ANNEX 8 Table 1 SEBOU II DEVELOPMENTPROJECT

Project Cost Estimates /1

Local Foreign Total Local Foreign Total Percentage Foreign Sugar Factory ------DH Million ------US$ Million----- Exchange

Civil Works and Erection 2.89 11.51 14.40 0.71 2.82 3.53 80 Effluent Treatment Plant 1.22 1.84 3.06 0.30 0.45 0.75 60 Equipnient and Material 8.77 35.21 43.98 2.15 8.63 10.78 80 Studies and Final Design 1.18 4.73 5.91 0.29 1.16 1.45 80 Management Fee 0.57 2.20 2.77 0.14 0.54 0.68 80 Transport and Insurance 0.45 1.83 2.28- 0.11 0.45 0.56 80 Consultants, Studies, Training 0.29 1.18 1.47 0.07 0.29 0.36 80

Sub-total 15.37 58.50 73.87 3.77 14.34 18.11 79

£lood Control

Civil Works: Dykes 19.70 12.57 32.27 4.83 3.08 7.91 39 Flood Channel Works 1.18 0.82 2.00 0.29 0.20 0.49 41 Other Works 1.96 1.31 3.26 0.48 0.32 0.80 40 Land Expropriation 4.90 0.00 4.90 1.20 0.00 1.20 0 Technical Assistance 0.94 3.75 4.69 0.23 0.92 1.15 80

Sub-total 28.68 18.45 47.13 7.03 4.52 11.55 39

Roads and Bridge

Mechra Bel Ksiri Bridge 1.35 1.63 2.98 0.33 0.40 0.73 55 Primary and Secondary Main Roads 6.53 6.57 13.10 1.60 1.61 3.21 50 Bituminous Tertiary Roads 6.32 6.32 12.64 1.55 1.55 3.10 55 Gravel Feeder Roads 3.22 3.22 6.44 0.79 0.79 1.58 50 Lateral Ways for Sugar Transport to Trans- loading Centers 2.49 1.67 4.16 0.61 0.41 1.02 40 Strengthening of Roads in Flood Escape Channels 0.90 1.10 2.00 0.22 0.27 0.49 55 Maintenance Equipment 0.37 0.65 1.02 0.09 0.16 0.25 64

Sub-total 21.18 21.16 42.34 5.19 5.19 10.38 50

Total Basic Cost 65.23 98.11 163.34 15.99 24.05 40.04 60

Physical Contingencies 7.71 11.59 19.30 1.89 2.84 4.73 60

Price Contingencies 15.50 20.85 36.35 3.80 5.11 8.91 57

Total Costs 88.44 130.55 218.99 21.68 32.00 53.68 60

/1 Details in Tables 3, 4 and 5 which also give the annual expenditure rates. . il 25, 1974 KINGDOM OF MOROCCO

SEBOU II DEVELOPMENTPROJECT

Project Cost Estimates By Year Percent Foreign 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 Total Foreign Local Exchange A. Base Cost DH million ------

Sugar Factory Li 54.60 14.74 - - - 69.34 55.48/8 13.86 80 Roads and Bridge /2 10.67 10.48 6.74 5.59 8.86 42.34 21.16 21.18 50 Flood Control /3 1.30 23.16 12.93 3.45 1.60 42.44 14.70 27.74 35 Effluent Treatment Plant /4 - - 3.06 - - 3.06 1.84 1.22 60 Consultants, Studies L 3.68 1.93 0.40 0.10 0.05 6.16 4.93 1.23 80

Sub-total 70.25 50.31 23.13 9.14 10.51 163.34 98.11 65.23 60

B. Physical Contingencies (11.8%) . 8.29 5.94 2.73 1.08 1.26 19.30 11.59 7.71 60

Sub-total 78.54 56.25 25.86 10.22 11.77 182.64 109.70 72.94

C. Price Contingencies /7 8.64 11.30 7.32 3.74 5.35 36.35 20.85 15.50 57

Total Cost 87.18 67.55 33.18 13.96 17.12 218.99 130.55 88.44

/l Assuming US$ 1 = FF 4.99 = DH 4.08 2 Excluding the roads in the Reservoir area. A Excluding Technical Assistance which is included in the Consultant category. j Sugar factory effluent treatment plant: includes effluent from the new sugarcane and the existing sugar beet factory. /5 Includes 15 man years of consultant services for the flood control component of this project and one plant pathologist, one entomologist, one agronomist, each for 4 months; one pollution control engineer for 1 month; one sugarcane specialist for 2 years; one sugarcane technologist for six months; one specialist for Bilharzia control study for four months; together with 40 man months for training fellowships. 6 Average contingency rate. 7 Using the average rate of 11% in 1974, 8.5% in 1975 and 6.5% during 1976-78. 8 Includes 100% of cost expressed in French francs; plus 60% of material and equipment, 30% of civil works, 70% of factory erection, and 50% of miscellaneous cost.

April 26, 1974 m X

*e * e

MOROCCO

SEBOU Il DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

Capital Cost Estimates - Sugar Factory

1i97l 1975 Total

Capital Cost MillionMillon------

Firm Cost Denominated in FF Equipment & material 32.09 8.02 40.11 Management *fee 0.59 2.36 2.95 Studies & final design 6.53 0.73 7.26

Sub-total 39.21 11.11 50.32

2 ~~~~~~~~~~-~~~~~DH Million ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Estimated Cost in Dirham2 Equipment & material 8.96 2.24 11.20 Civil %brks & erection 11.52 2.88 14.40 Management fee - 0.35 0.35 Transportation & insurance 2.08 0.23 2.31

Sub-total 22.56 5.70 28.26

Total/Cost (DH million) 54. 14.74 69.3- ta

Total/Cost (US$ million) 13.38 3.62 17.01

1 FF = French franc; total french franc cost is not revisable. /2 Cost is denominated in Moroccan eurrency and is revisable in terms of a complex indexing formula included in the contract Contract prices were expressed at July 1973 prices. These have been raised by 4% to express them in January 1974 prices

April 26, 1974 MOROCCO

SEBOU II DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

Flood Control Cost Estimates

A B C D + E F Total

CIVIL WORKS ------(DH million) ------

Flood annel Works - 1.50 0.50 - - 2.00 Dykes i 3.75 6.37 7.35 10.95 5.25 33.67 Other Works L 0.11 0.23 0.30 0.20 1.00 1.84

LAND EXPROPRIATION4 0.30 1.10 1.90 1.30 0.30 4.90

Sub-total 0.483 9.200 10.050 12.450 6.550 42.41

Technical Assistance 1.012 1.018 1.394 0.781 4.69

Total - A 4.643 10.212 11.068 13.844 7.331 47.10

L For the flood channels the actual and planned infrastructure would be protected against 2 exceptional floods. The main works are a main dra½nage canal and one large railway track. Dykes would be from 1 to 2 meters on the Sebou side and 1.5 meters on the Merja side. They would be made of locally available c]ay earth and would be designed with a free board of 0.7 meters and a crown width of 1.5 meters only. Total length would be about 260 km (Sec L3 These would include flap getes to provide for drainage from protected sectors, junction of dykes, and pumping stations. Also includes houses of displaced people from the flood channels about 130 houses valued at DH 1000/house. L4 Land would be needed for eor.ba.nkments (5M0 ha) ad i`'l,oodchannels (1000 ha). Av erage price per ha is about DH 3550/ha rangitig from DH 5000/ha for "ihcss" land to Dl 2500/ha for "Tir" land. Co L5 Consists of design, ternder documents and construction supervision estimated at about 12.5% of cast of civil works (DH 44.53 million), 80% of which is in foreign exchange. Total man-months required is estimated at 8.25.

M.arch 11, 1974

* e MOROCCO

SEBOU II DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

Sugar Factory - O and M Costs at 1974 prices

1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 428 Sugar cane production (1000 tons) 80 169 214 319 394 ------Factory Costs ----- H million ------22,970 28,370 30,810 Purchase of sugar cane - 5,760 12,170 15,410 0,285 0,300 fuel, lubriecants - 0,128 0,172 0,195 0,247 Chemicals, 1,264 Spare parts, gasoline - 1,212 1,225 1,232 1,248 1,259 2,100 Wages and salaries 1,700 1,750 1,800 1,875 1,950 2.050 0,010 0,010 Other transport costs 0,010 0,010 0,010 0,010 0,010 0,038 0,040 Miscellaneous adiinistrative costs 0,025 0,030 0,032 0,034 0,036 0,096 0,101 Interest on working capitalL2 - 0,027 0,046 0,056 0,079 4,000 4,000 4,000 Depreciation3 - 4,000 4,000 4,000 0,640 0,690 Physical Contingencies - 0,180 0,310 0,375 0,530

Sub-total 070 374b 39,315 1,005 1,263 Price contingencies - 0,156 0,334 0,525 0,750

Total Cost with Contingencies 1,735 20,099 23,712 3077

/1 Price of JU 7,/m ton for sugar cane including transport cost. of 6% percent per annum. 72- Working capital requirement assumed to be 10%,of annual costs at interest 7_ Over 15 years on equipment and buildings. Mlay30, 1974 D N vt CO MOROCCO

SEBOU II DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

Capital Cost Estimates of Roads in Project Area

1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 Total DH million------Irrigation Related Roads ------2.100 1.500 3.000 Mechra Bel KI.Ari Bridge 0.750 2.250 2.000 3.450 1.250 13.100 Main Roads - 3.800 1.050 1.350 0.435 6.29 12.655 Bituminous Tertiary Roads - 3.530 0.800 0.300 0.75 6.430 Feeder Roads (Gravel) - 2.530 2.050 - - - 1.000 Maintenance Equipment - - 1.000

5.650 4.185 8.29 36.185 Sub-total - 9.610 8.450

0.320 0.200Z 2.020 Flood Protection Relate.dRoads - - 1.500 -

9.610 9.950 5.650 4.505 8.49 38.205

0.525 1.087 1.088 0.395 4 14r5 LateraLl Ways on Side of' -1.050 Main Roads L_ 6.737 5.593 8.885 42.350 Total 10.660 10.475

area from floods L.1Road construction and improvement related to protection of the project stations. 1 /2 From access roads to transloading ANNEX 9

KTNGT)OM OF MOROCCO

SEBOITTT DEVELOPM{ENTPROJECT

Est½nated Sr±ed-ule of Disniirsemen+.s

IBRI) Fiscal Year and Quarter Cumulative Disbursementat End of Quarter

(us$ 0ooo)

Sertember 30, 1974 4,800 December 31, 1974 12,700 March 31, 1975 15,300 June 30, 1975 18,300

September 30, 1975 21,700 December 31, 19Q7 22,600 March 31, 1976 2h,200 June 30, 1976 25,300

September 30, 1976 ?6,900 Decemher 31, 1976 r, 500 March 31, 1976 28,100 June 30, 1977 2

September 30, 1977 29,100 December 31, J977 29,500 March 31, 1978 30200 June 30, 1978 30,700

September 30, 1978 31,200 December 31.,1978 31,50 March 31, 1979 32,0O

May 20, 1974 e

e Md'NEX10 Page 1

MOROCCO

SEBOUII DEVELOPMENTPROJECT

Market Prospects for Sugar

Backg round

1. Morocco's per capita consumption of sugar, at 25 kg per annum, is one of the highest among developing countries. In 1973, total consumption of sugar in Morocco was about 450,000 tons of which about 200,000 tons was imported - mainly from Cuba, Brazil and Poland. It is estimated that sugar consuinption would increase at about 3% per annum and is expected to reach 550,000 tons by 1980. Morocco's current five year plan aim to provide two thirds of domestic consumption from doinestic production. The policy was introduced in 1963 and self sufficiency is the ultimate objective.

2. There are eight sugar beet processing factories in Morocco, the first one started production in 1963. The total sugar producing capacity of these factories is 300,000 ton/year, and 247,000 ton of raw sugar was produced in 1972. In 1973, production fell to 220,000 due to reduction in sugar beet supplv. Table 1 gives the growth pattern of sugar producing capaciLty in Morocco.

3. Morocco's initial drive for self sufficiencv in sugar was in re- sponse to the steep rise in sugar price in 1963. The world price 1/ of raw sugar increased from USJ2.78/lb in 1962 to US!8.29/lb in 1963; subsequently declining to US,5.77/lb in 1964 and to USé1.81/lb by 1966. Since then prices have been rising continually and in March 1974 were at the exceptionally high level of USé19/lb. Between January and March 1974, the price of sugar increased by 77% - a proportional increase which was exceeded only by petro- leum. The price spiral is mainly due to lagging production. World consumption of sugar has increased by about 20 million tons since 1964, while production increased by only 10 million tons. World sugar stocks have declined by 25% since 1970 to about 15 million tons, and presently are about 20% of consumption. This is a decline fron 30% of consumption in 1970. Table 2 gives four tine series for sugar prices for the period 1960-1973. Table 3 gives, for 1965-1973, the world production, consumption and stocks of sugar.

Meditmu-Term Implications

4. The present high price of sugar and the expectatîon that it will not fall much in the medium run would lead to significant emphasîs on increasing production. Brazil is planning on enlarging exports, while Indîa's

. 1/ The "world price" applies to trade on the so-called "free market" which until December 31, 1973 was regulated by the International Sugar Agree- ment. N, tx0 Page 2 proposed f ive vear plan envisages tapping the resources of the small cane producers to eventually achieve self sufficiency. There were four major causes of the Dresent and, probably, continuîng tight supply situation:

(a) the severe draught conditions in Northeast Brazil and some other Latin Anerican countries, which occurred in 1973;

(b) the EEC revis on oe îts estîmated sugar exports to one haEf the origLnal estimate of approximately 800 9000 tons;

(c) the US farmers' shift from sugar beet to other crops leadïng to a drop in the output of sugar produced f rom sugar beet, as a result the ITS is exreected to significantlv increase its împort demand for sugar, particularly since its cane sugar production is not likely to fill the gap due to the shortfalls froTn beet sugar; and

(d) the International Sugar Agreement expired in December 1973. This Agreemnent had provided price and quota regulation systems, and the exnorting countries were receiving a fixed price under the Agreement (the supply commitment price). The removal of this restriction following âxpiration of the Agreement has partly contributed to the soaring of sugar prices.

5. One imrortant factor which will dominate the long run sugar situation is the energv crisis, with its impact on transportation costs. Until early 1973, cost of sugar transportation was a small part of total cost usually ranging between 15 and 25 dollars per ton for the most important routes. Howeverî in the past six months freight rates have increased to thrice their former levels. These very large increases have been maîntained through all sections of the market, from short sea trades to large bulk carriers and time charter. An indication of the phenomenal increase in rates is provided by the nominal CarIbbean/UK freight rate, which commencing at US$15 has risen constantly throughout 1973, partîcularly during the last six months, to the current level of US$45 per ton. Given below is a representative cross sugar section of sea freïght rates paid during 1973.

H1gh Low

Britîsh Honduras-US Atlantic/Gulf $14.50 $ 7.25 Philrppines - JS Atlantic/Gulf $25.00 S14.00 Peru - UISAtlantic/Gulf $17.00 $ 9.25 Durban - Japan 3512.00 Î 6.50 Durban - Porkalla M12.50 3n 9.00 Brazil - Casablanca $40.00 $17. 0 Brazil - Japan $59.50 $20.00 Brazil - Arabïan Gulf S55.00 $18.50 Poland - East Africa 51.50 $32.00 Dunkirk - Basra $63.00 $24.50 l Dunkirk - Red Sea $60.00 $18.00 Australla - Japan E17.00n h 5.25 ANNEX 10 Page 3

It is alnost certain that the current firt[ conditions will prevail and the rates will not fall. The main implication of the rise in freight rates is the provision of an economic basis for expanding domestic sugar production bv rtst countries who have the ulightest comparative advantage.

6.. Morocco has made a significant start in domestic sugar production dur!ne the past decade and given sugarcane yields in the neighborhood of 100 tons/ha the hasis to expand domestic sugar production through development of sugarcane farming exists. The domestic market is large - about 550,000 tons by 1980 - and consequentlv could easily absorb the expected 45,000 ton incremental production from the project.

April. 25, 1974

. l~ e MOROCCO SEBOIJ 1l DEVELOPMENTPROJECT Sugar Beet 1rcsjîCpctyadA1~1AneProduction i, Mlorocco

Raw Suger Froduction (in ton$) 9 7 factory S.gar Fa,tory Sugar 1 9 6 3 1 9 6 4 i 9 6 5 I 9 6 6 i 9 6 7 i 9 6 8 1 9 6 9 1 9 7 O 1 9 7 I 1 9 7 2 1 3 1973 Average Producing t.ap-ity Utilization

737, SUNAB 30,000 5,000 19.600 21,700 31.500 10,100 28,200 24.000 25,700 32,400 30,500 22,000

32,000 29,000 737. SUTO, 40,000 46,0100 28,500. 26,500 33,100 28.900 27.000

37.200 SUNAG MB81 42,000 30,300 20,900 17,900 37,300 45,000 537,. SUNAG SAT 42,000 10,300 - 19,300 34,200 30,100

907, SUBM 40,000 22,300 41,200 31,500 37,300 36,000

961/. DOUKALA 30,000 17,300 31,500 31,600 29,000

947, SUNAT 45,000 28,700 37,600 42,500

507, SUCRAFOR 30,000 10,900 15,000

Total producé.d 5,000 19,600 21,700 47,500 38,600 95,500 108,300 150,300 222,600 247,200 218,500

e Total Capacity 30,000 30,000 30,000 70,000 70,000 -54,000 194,000 224,000 269,000 299.000 299.000

37, Capacity ntilized 7, 167, 637, 72% 687, 557, 627, 567, 67% 837,. 827, 7

A 9 ril 18, 1974 ANNEX 10 Table 2

MOROCflO

SEBOU II DEVELOPMENTPROJECT

Internat0onal Sug-ar M'4arket Prices-, 1960 to q973

Export Unit Wcrld U.S.A. Commonwealth . Value - (ISA daily) Preferential/2 Sugar Agreement/3 Developing Countries/à (U.S. cents per pound of raw sugar) 1960 3,14 5.35 5.44 n.a. 1961 2.70 5.34 5.52 4.75 1962 2.78 5.56 5.61 4.95 1963 8.29 7.28 5.64 6.45 1964 5.77 5.98 5.64 6.55 1965 2.08 5.80 5.82 4.71 1966 1.8i 6.04 5.94 4.88 1967 1.92 6,32 5.94 5.10 1968 1.90 6,54 5.10 5.20 1969 3.20 6.75 5.10 5.67 1970 3.68 6.94 5.10 5.81 1971 4.50 7.40 5.10 6.11 1972 7.27 7.99 6.0/5 6.S6 1973 9.49 8.91 5.56 76 n.a. n.a. = not available.

/1 Fas or fob Caribbean or Brazilian ports, 7 Price for export under U.S. Sugar Act. 73 Starting in 1965 the figures include the special payments to developing countries introducedin that year. The decline in 1968 reflects the devaluationof t'nepound in 1967. /4 Excluding Cuba. 77 Weighted average of contract prices received by developing countries, members of the Comr.onwealth Sugar Agreement; excnange rate used: 1E = $2.502. /6 Exchange rate used: 1i = $2.452.

Source: InternationalSugar Organization,Sugar Year Book and StatisticalBulletin (various issues); U.S. Department of Agriculture,Sugar Reports (varicus issues); FAO, Trade Yearbook 1972.

April 17, 1974 e ANNEX10 Table 3

MOROCCO

SEBOU II DEVELOPMENTPROJECT

World Production, Consumption and Stocks of Sugar (Raw Value)

between 1964/65 ard 1972/73 *

Year World Sugar World Sugar World Sugar Stocks Stocks as % of Consumption Production at the end of the Consumption Season (8/31) - m1±±1onm. tons> 1964/1965 59.3 66.8 18.9 31.9 1965/1966 62.8 63.1 19.2 30.6 1966/1967 65.5 65.6 19.3 29.5 1967/1968 65.6 66.4 20.1 30.6 1968/1969 68.2 67.8 19.7 28.9 1969/1970 72.2 74.3 21.8 30.2 1970/1971 74.6 72.8 20.0 26.8 1971/1972 76.2 73.2 17.0 22.3 1972/1973 78.8 77.3 15.5 19.7

Source: F. 0. Licht, International Sugar Report, various issues.

April 17, 1974 e a O KINGDOM OF MOROCCO Il DEVELOPMENT PROJzCT

Farm Incoms on a 5 ha farm for Four C-op Rotations

-orrotarion--- s9 rotationSFt Y.L9 rotationrot ce rotationSagare 8ne,

Initial Year 10 Initial Year 10 Initial Year 10 Year 10 Basic estioates Cool zone Watm aone ------pH ------_____ ------______-

Gros- in-ose 7,015 11,065 7,555 12,370 6,125 1C,755 17,700 15,856 less, variable production cost 5,075 5,750 5,460 7,120 4,600 5,270 13,680 9,696 RentLZ 750 1,250 750 1,250 750 1,250 * *

Irrigation water L - 435 - 348 - 1,500 * * Interest on working Capital 80 120 105 200 60 lO0 * *

equal Wet incone 1,110 3,750 1,240 3,452 715 2,635 4,020 6,610

add, imputed labor income 3,750 3,750 3,700 3,700 3,630 3,630 3,184 3,184

Net Cash income/family 4,860 7,500 4,940 7,152 4,345 6,265 7,204 9,344

Net income/Capita (US$) (200) (305) (200) (290) (175) (255) (295) (380)

As s,tp ion

Farm gate Crop Yield Variable Pric- Tons/ha Production Cnet 19H/ha Crop s DH/ton Initial Final I Initi al Final

Sugar beet 76 25 40 1,150 1,250 Wheat 630 1 2 460 500 Seed Cotton 1,400 1.2 2 1,250 1,450 Vegetables 280 12 12 1,795 1,795 Bersin (green) 35 20 25 600 750 Rire 650 2.5 5 1,150 1,300 Maize (forage) 45 40 75 605 625

* Included in variable -osts. L Includes sugarbeet, wheat, bersit and cotton operated at a cropping intensity of 125% 2 Inclodes sugarbeet, wheat, cotton, vegetables, bersin and neize with a cropping inteùsity of 140% 3 Includes rice, cotton and bersim et 100% intensity 4 Includes 100% sugarcane with no intercropping For irrigated lajd DH 250,/ha; for rainfed land DH 150/ha L At DII 29/1000 m L 50%, of variable costo excluding family labor at 6% per year /8 Assuming a family of six

April 17, 1974 KINGDOM OF MOROCCO

SEBOU II DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

Sugarcane Costs and Returns

/1 Cool Zone Warm Zone Production Costs at November 1973 Prices- Labor Input Plant Crop Ratoon Plant Crop Ratoon (nan-days) ------DH/ha ------

Land Preparation 250 250 Fertilization: Labor 5/ha 50 50 50 50 : Fertilizer 485 485 485 485

Planting 17/ha 285 285 960

Irrigation 30/year 960 480 960 960

Pesticide Treatment 4/ha 130 130 130 130

Interum Cultivation 30/ha 300 300 300 300

Harvesting 1/ton cane 1,000 700 1,000 1,100

3,460 2,145 3,460 3,025

Rent 500 250 500 500

Other Costs 190 190 190 190

Total Cost 4,150 2,585 4,150 3,715

Total Cost Per Cycle 9,320/ 15,295 /3

Total Revenue Per Cycle 14,160 25,370

Net Revenue Per Cycle 4,840 10,075

Average Annual Net Revenue 1,210 1,259

Average Annual Net Revenue for a 5 ha Holding DOH (6,050) (6,295) US$ equivalent (1,483) (1 543)

/1 January 1974 prices increase mainly in the cost of fertilizer would increase production costs by DH 485/ha for both plant and ratoon crops in each zone. /2 One plant crop (2 years) and two ratoons (1 year each). /3 One plant crop (2 years) and three ratoons (2 years each). /4 At DH 59/ton for sugarcane.

May 30, 1974 .

KINGDOM OF MOROCCO

SEBOU II DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

Labor Requirements for(5 haiholdings Under the Sebou I Crop Rotations

Four Year Rotation Five Year Rotation Rice Rotation Sugarcane Labor Input Area Labor Requirement Area Labor Requirement Area Labor Requirement Area Labor Requirements (man-days/ha) (ha) (man-days) (ha) (man-days) (ha) (man-days) (ha) (man-days) Sugarcane Warm Zone Cool Zone Warm Zone 105 5 525 600 Cool Zone 120

Wheat 45 1.25 56 1.00 45

Cotton 150 1.25 188 2.00 300 l 150

Sugar Beet 80 1.25 100 1.00 80

Rice 46 4 184

Vegetables 115 0.625 72 0.50 58

Forage 56 1.875 105 1.50 84 4 224

TOTAL 521 567 558 525 600

Imputed Labor Income>

DH/year (3387) (3686) (3630) (3412) (3900)

US$ equivalent/year (830) (903) (890) (836) (955) w

May 29, 1974 MOROCCO

SEBOU II DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

Cropping Patterns in the Project Area

/1 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 Total

------h-----ha------

4 Year rotation 1,760 2,460 3,410 5,460 5,460 5,460 5,460 5,460 5,460 5,460 5,46o 5,46o

5 Year rotation 490 2,540 4,190 4,990 5,640 5,640 5,640 5,640 5,640 5,640 5,640 5,460

Sugar cane rotation _ 800 2,000 3,200 4,400 5,600 7,100 8,600 10,100 11,100 12,100 12,100

Rice rotation - - - 2,700 4,400 5,700 5,700 5,700 5,700 5,700 5,700 5,700

citrus 650 650 1,850 6,300 6,300 6,300 6,300 6,300 6,300 6,300 6,300 6,300

'lOTAL 2,900 6,450 11,450 20,150 26,200 28,700 30,200 31,700 33,200 34,200 35,200 35,200

/1 Constraints from Sebou I report adjusted for total area of 35,200. Assuming 8,100 ha to supply the present sugar cane factory and the rest of the area for supporting a second factory.

May 29, 1974

l e ANNEX 12 le Page 1

KINGDOM 03 MOROCCO

SEBOU II DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

Economîc Analysi-s

1. The development comprises a factory for processing sugar cane, construct:ionof flood protectionworks for the area to be irrigated under the first Sebou project and development of roads to facilitate movement of agricultural produce in the project area. Roads are essential to ensure that full benefits are derived from the agriculturaldevelopment in the area. The main part of the road network developed under the project would be necessary to meet the rnormalincrease in traffic, and with the step wise development inherent in road investments,this project has essentially accelerated the investment program. About half of the investment is for main roads (94 km) and a sridge and so would have a wide range of beneficiaries. The first year retur on this portion of this investmentis estimated at 10% (Table 10), and rei.nifrces the assumption that investmenti3 in roads would be necessary in a few years. The remainder of the investment would be necessary for facilitating the mc;ement of agriculturalproduction from and withîn the project area and is isllocatedto the project. A separate economic analysis for the investment is not attempted, and in the aggregate analysis the quantitativebenefit from roads (road user savings. etc.) are understated. The economic evaluation of the sugar factory and the flood control is discussed in detail hereunder.

Su2ar Fac 2 r

2. The suigar factory is an investment of the import substitutioncate- garv, and economic benefits from the investments are defined as savings on sugar tnports. Table 1 compares the cost of importing and domesticallypro- ducin? oanepound of raw sugar. At full development, the domestic production cost Is estimated at USÎ11/lb while the ex-factory.priceis USJ13/lb. The cost of ïriportingsugar is also evaluated both on the basis of the Bank's Economîc Analysis and Projections Division's (EAPD) forecast and on an alternative forecast of US015/lb as the likely import cost. Given present trends, the higher alternative cost of USe15/lb appears a more reaiîstic forecast.

3. Fconomlc Analysis. Tables 2 and 3 evaluate the rates of return on tImq fractory for the following alternatives:

. IAPD forecast price for import cost, and domestic production cost assuming a public sector operation;

IL Al.ternativeimportes coet of USe15/lb, and assuming a public seator operation;

* Iî. The returne on the investment in the sugar factory as a financial operation. AŽLNEX12 Page 2

The results are summarized together with sensitivity analysis showing the effects of varying costs and benefits for each alternative as follows:

Alternatives I II III. Rate of Return Z Basic Rate of Return 15.8* 28.8* Io*

SensitivityAnalysis

Capital cost increased 15% 11.9 22.8 5 O & M Cost increased 25% 10 23.8 - Gross Benefits increased 25% 22.9 37.3 26 Gross Benefits decreased 25% 6.1 18.8

* The main decision variables.

4. The basic ROR for all alternativesequals or exceeds-10%,although the productionof sugar in the private sector appears to be least attractive. The private sector return on equity (Table 3) is just barely adequate.

5. In the public sector, the investment is attractive under both price assumptions. Since the EAPD forecast price may prove low the ROR for alternative Il may be taken as our best estimate of the returns from the sugar factory; however, for consistency the rest of the analysis is based on the EAPD forecast. On this basis, domestic sugar production is amply justified on purely economic grounds. The sugar factory would be a self-financingas well as an economically viable investment. Table 4 gives a tentative cash flow for the sugar factory indicating the ability of the factory to repay the investments over twelve years at 7.25% with two years' grace.

Flood Control

6. The benefits from flood protection are defîned as the reduction in the costs which would result fron flooding in the absence of protection. When floods occur, the physical assets in the flood plain are damaged and economic activity in the plain, as well as related activity outside the plain, is interrupted. The costs of flooding include damage to physical assets, losses in income and costs of adjustment such as the expense of compensatingfor dislocation. The extent of these losses depends on the intensity and timing of the flood. The cumulative damage depends on the frequency.

7. Flood protection measures may:

(i) alter the distributionof flood losses - that is, protection of one area may leave unchanged or aggravate damage in other areas and/or; ANNEX 12 Page 3

(ii) alter the stream flow by structural transformation(dams, reservoîrs) so as to change the distributionfunction associated with flood losses, thus eliminating the smaller, more frequent floods leading usually, tu, a significantreduction in losses;

(îii) flood proofing investments,which do not alter the streamflow, but reduce the damage associated with each level of a flood; and

(iv) mandatory flood insurance 1/.

The insurance premiun for flood protection would usually include a safety loading charge and so may significantlyexceed the expected value of losses. The premium may be unbearably large for the flood înhabitants and government participationmay be required. In considering the cost of flooding the mean (expected)value of losses is usually employed, but it is inadequate as the potential beneficiary in the flood plain may be more interested in the upper extreme value of damage rather than the mean. Furthermore,his concern with the extreme value would be inversely related to the proportionof extreme damage to his net worth. If the extreme damage is a significant proportion (say, larger than 50%) or a multiple of his net worth he would be entirely concernedwîth the extreme values and not with the long-term mean.

ConventionalRate of Return Analysis of Flood Protection

8. The flood control measures proposed under the project are of the flood proofing variety. The proposed dykes would essentiallyprotect the irrigated area from flood damage without any effect on the distributionof the river flows and the related floods. Measurements over the past thirty seven years (1933-1970)indicate that a flood has occurred almost every year, and occasionally a number of times in any one year. The protection dykes would prevent damage from these recurrent floods. One of the crudest ways of evaluating these investnentswould be to use the expected value of damage from all floods as the annual benefits and to compute the resultant rate of return. This method has two shortcomings:

(a) it ignores the effect of extreme values of damage on the incomes/networths of potential beneficiaries;and

(b) it discounts the expected value of damage in computing the ROR implying that that sequence of floods is irrelevant and that expected benefits in the remote future are less valuable than benefits in the nearer future.

Under (a) above this method underestimatesbenefits by ignoring the very high value that the poorer potential beneficiariesplace on the prevention of *l high rîsk events 1/ (see para 7). Under (b) the method underatates benefits

t/ Defined in terms of "extreme damage" as a proportion ot multiple of the beneficiary's net worth. ANNEX 1 2 Page 4 by failing to distinguish between L .ocd sequences. For example, the rate of return would be higher if a 100 yeaa f'Loodoccurs in year 1 than in year 10. In order to use the discounting process, it is necessary to develop a probability distributionof B'thesequence of floods"; the use of the expected value is an inappropriatesurrogate îor the "sequence" and leads to artl- ficial understatementof benefLîts.

9. However, Ln order to provîde a reference point the rate of return frotmf .ood control investmentswas est-imatedusing damage estîmates developed by NEDECO 1/. These estimates are given în Table 5 for the years 1976, 1985 and 1999. The damages in the intervenîng years were linearly înterpolated. Table 6 estimates the rate of returunas 11%, Given the significant uncer- tainties in estimationof damage the above rate of return may be defined as conservativeor as the minimum rathar than the expected ROR (conventionally defined).

An Alternative Evaluation Procedure for Flood Protection

10. Working on the assumption that forecasting a flood sequence is in- trinsicallydifficult, the problem was translated into an equivalent insurance problem. The main issue to resolve lay în defining the available flood data in terms of a probability distribution. Given a probability distribution, the economic evaluation could be stated as a comparison between the cost of flood protection (X) (insurance pretniLum)and the expected cost of the avoided flood damage (Y) over a 20 year period. The selection criterion could be defined as "Accept if Y X."8

11. In flood control literature there is mention of the "Poisson function" as an acceptable probability distribution for est&mating flooding probabilities. Since flooding is a discrete event on the time scale an alternative equivalent, distributionis the "Binomial distribution". The binomial distributionmay be used to estimate the probabilityof one or more floods provided the following two conditions are true:

(a) there is absolutely no `2jLSern` to the occurrence of different floods. That îs, a large flood may follow a small flood and vice versa with the occurrenceof one providing no information about the other; and

(b) the long run frequency of a flood îs known or can be defined i.e. 100 year flood or a 10 year flood, etc.

12. In order to establish "a" above the 39 available flood observations were analyzed for significantautocorrelation. The main result from the analysis was the existence of a lag-seven autocorrelationcoefficient of about 0.4,

1/ After adjusting them for vrice and other changes. ANNEX 12 le Page 5

a significantrelationship, but consideredweak for predîction. Since it was not possible to establish a physical basis for this statistical relationship it was felt that the alternativeassumption of serial independencewas appro- prîate. Given this the binominal distributioncould be used to estimate the probability of number of floods within a defined time period without reference to the time of occurrence.

13. Two estimates of the expected benefits from flood control are given in Table 7.

(a) prevention of damage against the 100 year flood, and (b) prevention of damage against the much more frequent 5 year floods.

A binomîal distributionîs completely defined by two parameters, the total number of trials, 1/ (N) and the long run probability (P) of this event 2/. Given (N) and (P) one can estimate, from published tables, the probability of getting 1, 2, --- , or, N floods over N years. For example, with N = 20 and P 0,01 tiueprobability of gettîng 1 or more floods is 0.1821; the probability of getting exactly 1 flood is 0.1652. As another example the probability of getting exactly four floods (for N = 20, P = 0.2) is 0,2182, and the probability of getting one or more floods is 0.9885.

14, For the two estimates given in Table 7, the values of N and P in each case are:

(ï) N - 20, P = 0.01; and (iï) N = 20, P - 0.20.

Column 1 in the Table gives the probability of "r" -/ or more floods in 20 years. Column 2 gives the probability of exactly r"'floods in 20 years. It is then necessary to estimate a "damage" corresponding to the flood cf frequency "P". Usîng the consultantsestimates of damages done to the equipment and infrastructurein the project area during the weak 4/ (1965) and strong 5/ (1970) floods the per hectare damages were estimated at DH 2,700 and DH 5,000 in 1974 prices. Including the additional infrastructure investmentsto be made in the project area, and including expected crop damage, the reference damage/ha in the project for the two flood frequenciesare estimated at DH 4,000 and DH 8,000 respectîvely.

1/ Generic term to be translated to mean "number of years" in this context. 2/ The design criterion - 100 year flood (P - 1 0.01) or 5 year flood (P - 0.20). 100 3/ "r" is a random variable defined as "number of floods". 4/ Essentîally a f£ve-year flood. 5/ Essentially a hundred year flood. ANNEX 12 Page 6 @

15, In order to estimate the expected benefit from flood control we defined a random variable D (r) as the damage corresponding to the damage from "r"-floods r= -, M, when M N. The expected benefit is then:

L (uenefit) D (

16, Using results of Table 7 , tne following values of E (benefit) are derived.

E (Benefit) DH million

I. 100 year floods only 56 N 20 P = 0.01

Il. 5 year floods onl 524 N = 20 P = 0.20

Since protection against 100 year floods would involve protection against 5 year floods l/ as well, the total benefits for protecting against the 100 year floods are DH 580 million; and for the 5 year floods alone these are DH 524 million. The benefits are seen to be many times (about 12) larger than the costs and the flood controi measures appear to be overwhelmingly viable.

17. Instead of ennunciating an exhaustive list of alternative events, one could have compared a subset of the total benefits with the costs. Con- sider the 5 year frequency floods and the probability 2/ of getting exactly 4 f loods.

1/ For logical rigor we must assume that only these two types of floods occur; or else derive E (benefits) for all possible flood frequencies.

2/ From Table 8. ANNEX12 Page 7

Pb (r=4 / n = 20, P = 0.2) = 0.2182

D (r=4) = DU 560 _/ million

E (benefit) = D (r=4) x Pb (r=4/20,0.2)

- 560 X 0.2i82 DH 122 million

That is, even for four floods the expected damage is 2.5 tîmes larger than the expected cost.

18. The method gives the analyst tremendous leeway to adjust for uncertaintiesin damage estimates. For example, even if the damage per ha from a 5 year flood were DH 400 (i.e. one tenth of the damage assumed) the expected benefit from flood protection would be DH 52 million or just equal to the cost. Now, it is possible to say with complete assurance that DU 400/ ha îs almost certain to be exceeded. That is, there îs virtually no chance that E (benefits)would be less than expected cost.

19. It is these broad orders of magnitude which are important to establish in evaluating projects whlch have inherent uncertaintiesin the data base. The flood probabilities generatedmay also be used to estimate the annual insurance premium that would be charged to provide a similar level of protection. For the 5 year floods, this is estimated at a minimum of D1i61 million per year at 10% interest over 20 years. A private lnsurer, unless he were attempting to break even, would add a safety loading factor to the premium. For all these reasons, it is clear that the flood protection is an economicallyviable investment.

Aggregate Economîc Return

20, The aggregate economic return for the three project components, using the conventionalbenefit estimates for flood control, is estimated at 15%. The rate of return of Sebou I and II, using the EAPD price forecasts, is about 8%. Since, under presently foreseen conditions, costs and benefits are expected to inflate at different rates, the usual procedure of excluding price contingenciesfrom the "coste" and valuation of benefits in base year units of value was not applicable. This expected change in the relative prices of these two aggregates (cost and benefits) vas incorporated in the economic analysis by using the following procedure:

(a) express costs and benefits în current prices; and

(b) deflate the two series by a single index of inflation - either the GNP deflator or the index of internationalprices.

* 1/ (4,000 x 35,000) x (4) - DH 560 million. A.NNEX 12 Page 8

For this analysis the deflator used was 6%. The details are given in Tables 9 and 10 where the rates of return are estimated on deflated series. Table 8 gives the economic prices used in the analysis.

21. Employment. The direct employment effect of this project would be confined to the constructionperîod and is estimated as 2,000 man-years over the next five years. This calculation assumes that each DH 100,000 investment in civil works creates oue job. In addition, the sugar factory would provide permanent employment for 85 and seasonal employment for 200 men (Estimates based on data in the contract for the sugar factory). The employment effect of the Sebou I project, concerned with agrizulturalproduction, is estimated at 17,000 man years per year - based on the per hectare estimate for employment given in Annex 11, Table 3.

April 25, 1974

. * _ _ KINGDOM OF MOROCCO SEBOU II DEVELOPMENTPROJECT

Sugar Factory Comparative Costs

Unit 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1985

Domestie Production

Sugarcane Produced 103 tons 80 169 214 319 394 427 Sugar Produced 10 tons 8.4 17.7 22.4 33.4 41.3 44.9

Cost of production/' 103 DH 16,278 23,124 26,737 34,845 40,778 43,603 Cost per ton of sugar DE/ton 1,938 1,306 1,194 1,043 987 971 /3 USc/lb'2 22 14.8 13.5 11.8 11.2 11.0 Sale price of sugar ex-factory (X) USç/lb 13 13 13 13 13 13 Freight,etc. to refinery/4 (Y) US¢/lb 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60

Cost of domestically produced sugar (X+Y) uS/lb 13.60 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.6

Imported Sugar - Alternative I

FOB Csribbean/5 USA/lb 8.5 9.0 9.5 10.5 11.0 12.0 16 Freight 6 Brazil - Casablanca US//1b 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.5 Local handling charges and transport to refinery/7' US¢/lb 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Cost of sugar CIF refinery US¢/1b 10.8 11.4 12.0 13.1 13.7 14.8 19.0

Imported Sugar-Alternative II L FOB US¢/lb 15 15.8 16.5 17.4 18.2 19.1 23 CIF USe/lb 17.23 18.2 19.0 20.0 20.9 21.9 26

More than 95% of this cost is domestic including the use of bagasse as an energy source.

/2 At US$ 1 = DH 4.08 Present fixed price is DH 1,150/ton ex factory. Includes factory profit. If this is redistributed,the cost would be less by the amount of the reduction. /4 Freight and other costs estimated at DH 50/ton.. j World ISA daily price FOB Caribbean. Forecast by the IBRD Economic Analysis and Projections Division (EAPD) /6 Until 1973 cost of transportation was a minlorfactor and ranged between US$15 to 25 per ton of sugar for most important routes. More recent estimate of freight cost from Brazil to Casablanca is US$40/ton. Tliis te assumed to increase by US.0.1/lb/year. 7 Estimated at DH 40/ton. /8 Recent movement of sugar price suggest that the EAPD may be too low. The price of sugar in March 1974 was US0l9/lb; the price increase since January 1, 1974 was 771%. If the import cost alternative is assumed at USc15/lb and assumed to increase at 5% p.a.,the option is much more clearly towards domestic production.

April 17, 1974 KINGDOM OF MOROCCO

SEBOU Il DEVELOPMENTPROJEC0

Rate of Rature as DoaestiC Sugar Production Benefits E.tinstiîn As-nmptive

Ctet af Domestir PCrdartioe Grass Benefits2 Net Benefits Sg- CF

Year Capital 0 & M Tatal Alternative I Alternative II I I TlhP .... ucd r ice Ceai eost LÀ (DR 10 ) ______huad D/o X Y Z (Y-X) (Z-X) Ton Alternative I 3/ Aiternativa II

1974 67,079 1,735 68,814 - - (68,814) (68,814) - 908 1,481 1975 19,545 13,253 32,798 7,627 12,440 (25,171) (20,358) 8.4 961 1,560 1976 3,060 20,089 23,149 17,010 27,612 ( 6,139) 4,463 17.7 1,014 1,631 1977 - 23,712 23,712 22,713 36,534 ( 999) 12,822 22.4 1,111 1,719 1978 - 31,820 31,820 37,107 57,414 5,287 25,594 33.4 1,164 1,798 1979 - 37,753 37,753 48,073 72,192 1D,320 34,439 41.3 1,261 1,887 1980 - 40,578 40,578 56,619 84,726 16,041 44,148 44.9 1,631 2,292 1981-2000 40,578 40,578 73,232 102,910 32,654 62,332 44.9

Rate af Returs- 15.8 28.8% es.. itivi ty Analysis I. Capita lst Over-run 15% 11.9 22.8 II. O & M Cat up 25% 10.0 23.8 III. BRefit I1-reased by 25% 22.9 37.3 IV. Benefit Dccrcasad by 25% 6.1 18.8

Li Excluding freight ta the retfiery. It is aassed that this rast-aba,t DII50/tas - raughly caceels the rost af bringing the imported auget frac tha part ta the refiiery. r28avings as import af ra- sugar defi-ed as be-efits. 3 Usieg th. EAPD Forecast fer impart price af sagar. L Assuming vast iportigpf -g- - be US 15/lb ie 1975 und ledrease by 5% p.a. (Based a table I ).

April 17, 1974

Ira

* e ICINGDOMO0FMOGROCCG

SEBOU II DEVILOPMIRNTFROJECT

Fiac1Race ai Rature an tise Geetetel the Factes-v

Alterntive Case I Gr.ss Renfiln Net Reneflas Alterntive Cent Il Cap ital Fredeetien Tteta (Y) Caie- rd-rtian Tatal Yeat tet es t aRet Atra iv 2 Alternative il taet tes t Case x ~~ ~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ (-)(Y-GI_____

1974 67,0175 1,735 68,814 (68,814) (17,096) 15,361 1,735 17,096 1975 19,545 ~2 13,253 32,798 9,660 (23,138> (11,959) 8,366 13,253 21,619 1976 3,060 20,099 23,159 20,355 (2,8045 (12,786) 13,042 20,099 33,141 1977 - 23,712 23,712 25,760 2,048 (7,934) 9,982 23,712 33,694 1978 31,820 31,820 38,525 6,705 (3,277) 9,982 31,820 41,802 1979 -37.753 37,753 47,495 5,742 ( 240) 9,982 37,753 47,735 1980 -40,578 40,578 51,635 11,057 1,075 9,982 40,578 50,560 1581-85 40,578 40,578 51,635 11,057 1,075 9,982 40,578 50,560

1986-2000 40,578 40,578 51,635 11,057 11,075 -40,578 40,578

Rate ai retert8. 10.0

I. Capital test p 25% 5%

Il1. B-eestît ap 25% 26% IV. e-aiiie dass 257,

Nase: - The rata e8 reter (COR) estineeed by -et be...fit (Y-X) glas th. easat. tatal instaslss I aeutleg.. - far fii....eialleverge Th. COR esiag (Y-Z) is rater-a eqîty.

É-spiy eteibatias plus th rpase- ttea aihîlf 1-g te-n lae. Thie -aald glas th. -ettr va eqvity Ass-sd 100% equlty fer thie tarlatîv 3 Retuen ve tataliv1 tes

ApeiJ 17, 1974 KINGDOM OF MOROCCO SEBOU II DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

Sugar Factory - Cash Flow

1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980

Cross Income 9,660 20,355 25,760 38,525 47,495 51,635 O & M Expenditures 1,735 13,253 20,089 23,712 31,820 37,753 40,578

SOURCES

Net Income (1,735) (3,583) 256 2,048 6,705 9,742 11,057 Depreciation 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 From Internal Sources 2,265 407 4,256 6,048 10,705 13,742 15,057

Equity/ 22,000 13,000 - - - - -

IBRD Loan /2 53,663 15,636 .2,448 - - - - From Reserves _ 8,904 13,945 7,225 2,939 310 218

Total Sources 77,928 37,947 20,649 13,273 13,644 14,052 15,275

USES

Factory Investments 3 67,079 19,545 3,060 - Repayment of Principal & Interest4 1,945 4,457 10,334 10,334 10,334 10,334 10,334

Replacement Investment -- - - 3,000 3,500 4,000 To Reserves 8,904 13,945 7,255 2,939 310 218 941 Total Uses 77,928 37,947 Q,64^ 13,273 13,644 i4,0i 15,2-T

/1 Government contribution of DH 35 million. /2 80.% of capital investment. /3 Including physical and price contingencies. /4 Interest payments at 7.25% on average loan outstanding for first two years; the total loan of DH 10,334 at 7.24%.

May 29, 1974

ID ANNEI 12 Table 5

KINGDOM OF MOROCCO

SEBOUII DEVELOPMENTPROJECT Expected Damage from Floods

1976 1985 1999 -DI-- DH ' ------_

Damage to Crops 2,322 2,836 3,189

Damage to Equipment 3,h84 4,255 4,784

5,806 7,091 7,973

Note: Damage to irrigation eqtipment was stud½ed for two floods - one m.inor (March 1965) and one severe (January 1970). NEECO distinguished seven damage zones based on the period cf submission and then evaluated the damage that March 1965 and January 1970 floods would produce in each sector. The above table i.san ageregate ,f damage for the five protected zones. The mathematicalexpectation of damage for the above three years was based on the probabilityof different floods.

May 20, 1974 e KINGDOM OF MOROCCO

SEBOU Il DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

Flood Control- Rate of Return

Repair Capital Maintenance Total Gross Benefits /3 Net Cost Li of cost Benefits Year Flood Works Crops Equipment Total and Other

Basic Analysis ------(DH '000) ------

1974 5070 - 5070 - - - ( 5070) 75 28960 - 28960 - - - (28960) 76 15940 101 16041 2322 3484 5806 (10235) 77 4276 681 4957 2379 3569 5948 991 78 2000 999 2999 2436 3655 6091 3092 79 - 1084 1084 2494 3740 6234 5150 80 1125 1125 2551 3826 6377 5252 85 1125 1125 2836 4255 7091 5966 90 1125 1125 3009 4514 7523 6398 2010 1125 1125 3189 4784 7973 6848

Rate of return = 10.6%

Sensitivity Analysis I. Capital cost over-run 15% 8.6

II. Maintenance most increased by 25% 10.1 ` >4 III. Benefits increased by 25% 13.8 rc

/l 2%oof capital Cost starting two years after construction. To be interpreted as an average cost, since,r-epair and maintenance would be a function of frequency and intensity of floods. /2 Defined as prevention of damage. See assumptions in Table5.

April 17, 1974

e e KINGDOM OF MOROCCO

SEbOU IL DEVELOPMENTPROJECT

Economic Evaluation of Flood Control Alternacive Damage s 1/6 1/7 I- I I- Pb r(20,.01) Pb,r (20,.01) D(r)/4 D(r) * Pb,r D(r) * Pb

I. Expected Cost of Damage From r ------DH 000 ------100 Year Frequency Floods Over a 20 Year Period I 0.1821 0.1652 280,000 46,256

N - 20 / 2 0.0169 0.0159 560,000 8,904

P = 0.01 3 0.0010 0.0010 840,000 840 E(D(r)/5 56.000 42.000 70.000

Prob (D(r)) 0.5 0.2 0.3 weighted value of E(D(r)) = DH 57 million

Il. Expected Cost of Damage From r = P r(20,.2) Pb (20,.2) D(r)/8 D(r) * Pb,r 5 Year Frequency Floods Over bb r0b'r a 20 Year Period

1 0.9885 0.0577 140,000 8,078 2 0.9308 0.1369 280,000 3,833

Legend 3 0.7939 0.2053 420,000 86,226 r /2 4 0.5886 0.2182 560,000 122,192 b,r Pb( > r/N,P)/2 0.3704 0.1746 700,000 122,220 I. E(D(r) DH 524 million

-,r P (' = r/N,P)L3 6 0.1958 0.1091 840,000 91,644 b,r b 7 0.0867 0.0546 980,000 53,508 II. Even if D(1) were equal to DH 400 rather 8 0.0321 0.0220 1,120,000 24,640 than DH 4000 the E(D(r)) would be DH 52.4 million 9 0.0100 0.0074 1,260,000 9,324 10 0.0026 0.0020 1,400,000 2,800 III. E((r)) = DH 524 million is equal to an annuity of DH 61 million at 10% interest; or DH 42 million at 5% interest.

/1 A binomial distribution with parameters N(=20) and p(=0.0l) is assumed. See text for details. /2 Denotes the probability of getting r or more p year tlood over an N year period /3 Denotes the probability of getting exactly "r' P year floods over an N year period /4 Denotes damage associated with "r" P year floods over an N year period. In 1970, there were two floods close together (January 3 and 12) which together had an overflow volume af a 100 year flood. NEDECO estimated the damage corresponding to this flood at DH 4975/ha. Given the additional investments in the Project area on irrigation works of about DH 250 7 million or DH 7102/ha, the cost of a future 100 year flood could range up to DH 102/ha, Adding to this the damage to agricultural crops and other costs related to floods,the future damage is estimated (on average) at DH 8000/ha. So, D(r) = (r)x(35,000 x 8,000). /5 3 E(D(r)) = 1 (Pb r(20,.01))(D(r))-

K6 Assumes damage per ha at DH 6000. 7 Assumes damage per ha at DO 10,000. /8 NEI)ECO estimate of a 1965 flood at DH 2675. For the future this is adjusted ta OH 4000/ha. The damage curve is sigmoid and marginal increases ia damage from larger floods decrease over flood Size.

Anril 17, 1974 KINGDOM OF MOROCCO

SEBOU Il DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

Prices For Economic Analysis

Sugarcane Sugar Beet Wheat Rice Cotton / Maize/ ------~----~------DH/ton ------_----______

1. Average / price, FOB 885 885/2 595/ I,060/

2. Freight to Casablanca - 180 180 140 140 CIF price, Casablanca 1,065 1,065 735 1,200 /6 /6 /7 3. Port handling and internal transport +50- +50/ -35 -50/7

4. Transport to Rharb -50 -50 -20 -40

5. Storage, Insurance, etc. -15

6. Milling Cost -80

7. Ex-mill price (using 677. extraction rate) 715

8. Costs for local transport and breakage -50 /10 9. By-products +35 +70-

10. Variable costs -300/9 -430/

11. Transport to farm -125/9 -105

12. Farm gate price = 71 = 75 665 = 665 1,400 45 /8 13. Present fixed government price 59 76 630 650- 1,400 45

* Except for sugarcane, the econoeuic prices for the remaining products are close to governament fixed prices. Consequently, the prices used in the economic analysis are modified only for cane,which constitutes about 34% of the project area.

/1 Based on price projections made by the EAPD of the Bank. The price used is the average of their 1985 and 1974 prices expressed in 1974 value. /2 FOB Carribbean port. /3 FOB New York /4 FOB Bangkok /5 Freight rates have exponentially increased during 1974. Present freight from Brazil to Cuba for sugar is about US$ 40/ni ton. The freight for cereals is about US$ 32/m ton. For this analysis, it is assumed that by 1985 freight rates would increase to US$ 50/ton for sugar and about US$ 38/ton for cereals. The average of the 1974 and 1985 prices are used in this analysis. /6 To the sugar refinery. /7 To the milling point. /8 Market price; price not fixed by Government. /9 Using a conversion of 9.5 tons of sugarcane per ton of sugar and DH 13/ton for transport of sugarcane. /10 Based on experience of sugar beet factories in the country at extraction rate of 12.5%. /11 An average price of US¢ 45/lb for the long staple cotton to be produced in the area. /12 Farm gate price. Mainly for use as feed.

March 11, 1974 ÂNNIM12 le Table 9

KINGDOMOF MOROCCO

SEBOUII DEVELOPMENTPROJECT

Economic Rate of Return for Sebou II Net Benefits Flood Control/l Sugar Factêi-L Sebou I and II Sebou II /3 -______DH Million ------1973 _ (123.65) 1974 ( 5.07) (68.81) (172.01) (80.5) 1975 (28.96) (25.17) (158.38) (61.1) 1976 (10.23) ( 6.14) (121.26) (21.1) 1977 0.99 ( 0.99) (71.61) (4.3) 1978 3.09 5.29 (44.10) 1.2 1979 5.15 10.32 25.64 15.5 1980 5.25 16.04 50.99 21.2 1981 5.97 32.65 65.87 38.6 1982 6.hO 32.65 65.85 39.1 1983 6.85 32.65 66.00 39.5 1984- 2013 6.85 32.65 67.97 39.5 Rate of ReturnL4

1969 - 2013 - - 7.6% 1974 - 2013 11% 16% 9.7% 15%

/1 FromTable 6, Annex 12 :2 From Table 2, Annex 12, Alternative I 3 Includes Roads, Flood Control and Sugar Factory tÉ After adjusting costs and benefits for inflation of 6%f/year betweenSebou I appraisal(1969) and 1974.

April 24, 197h ANNEX12 Table 10

KINGDOM OF MOROCCO

SEBOU II DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

First Year Return - Main Roads

Unit Light Traffic Trucks Total

TraifficDensity vehicles/day 480 320 800

Road User Savings DH/vehicle/km 0.05 0.15

Unit Sav4ng DH/km/day 24.0 48.00 72.0

Length of Road km 9h.0

Annuial Benef'it / DH million 2.03

Costs Including Contingency DH Million 20.90

First Year Return: 2.03 x 100 = 9.7% 20.90

a Assuming 300 traffic days per year.

Mav 29, 1974

. MOROCCO

SEBOU II DEVELOPMENTPROJECT Progressive Taxes and Charges as Affected by Holding Size at Full Development

Holding Size 5 ha 10 ha 20 ha 50 ha Cropping System S/_ _ /2 S A S A S A

Gross Income 15,865 11,065 31,730 22,130 63,460 44,260 158,650 110,650 Lecs production costs 9,559 7,120 19,118 14,240 38,236 28,480 95,590 71,200 excluding m2-nter charges _ 6,306 3,945 12,612 7,B90 25,224 15,780 63,060 39,450 Add back cost of family 3,1.84 3,750 2,500 2,500 1,500 1,500 la.bor_ - ______9abo0 ______7,695 15,112 10,390 26,724 17,280 63,060 39,h5o Less Deductions

Water charges 1,320 616 2,640 1,232 5,280 2,464 13,200 6,160 Betterment levy - - 794 794 2.382 2,382 7,941 7,9Ll Net income before tax 8,170 7,079 11,678 8,364 19,062 12,434 U1,949 25,349 Tax liability 585 476 936 604 1,815 1,020 5,669 2,692 Net income per capita (333) (289) (477) (342) (779) (508) (1713) (1035) (us$ equivalent)

Water charges and better- (14) (9) (23) (20) (29) (28) (33) (36) ment levy as a % of income before deduction HH Tax liahil..ity as a % of (7) (7) (8) (7) (10) (8) (14) net income (11) /1 Sugarcane - Warm Zone 7 Four-year rotation.

'M ,.91O?. .

. KINGDOM OF MOROCCO SEBOU Il DEVELOPMENT PROJECT CONSTRUCTIONSCHEDULE

1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 CALENDAR YEAR J|F|M|A|M| J S J | | | | OM r1V11T111 A | J S J A J | |T EMM JSND MDJJAODI Tjjf.NDJI 1 AOOJ

SEBOU I DEVELOPMENT

. .~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~l

EOUIPMENT OF IRRIGATION -13 S SECTORS Sl S

S7~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~F

SEBOU Il OEVELOPMENT

FLOOD PROTECTIONPl 1 WORKS _ 3

Sil~ ~ ~ s 111i É|1 S73

SUGAR CANE FACTORY CONSTRUCTION

ROAD IMPROVEMENTS

MECHRA BEL KSIRI BRIDGE F_ ___

PRIMARY & SECONDARY ______ROADS

ACCESS ROADS

WorId BaEk-8609 a. KINGDOM OF MOROCCO SEBOU il DEVELOPMENT PROJECT PROPOSEDORGANIZATION CHART

OFFICE 0F THE PRIME MINISTER

------POLICY COORDINATION.______- -…-…---_------_-- _ I I i~~~~~~~ I

MINES E MERCEANT MARINE I MINISTRY OF PUBLIC WORKS |MNSTRY OF ... ICUL ANS COMMUjNICATIONS IE &MRRNTMRN

AUIE NATIONALTRASPOATTANPO CORON1 ATINSEECOMEEA I | DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY| DEPARTMENT I ROAD DEPATNT OFFICE COORDINATION OF DEVELOMENT DEPARTMENT |ARICULURAL RESEARCH DEPARTMENT (~~~~~~~ONT) PRJC RTECETNT

------l ------

REGIONAL ARCLTUFFIL SEB0U NATIONAL SUGAR LOCALOPMNNTBFFICEK TA I CANE FACTDRY COMPANY STUDIE RARA AÊAREA (SUNACAS) SERVICE OFFICE DIVISION ENTA

IIDGET TRANSPORT OF SUGAR SUGAR CANE CANE FROM TRANSFER PROCESSINO CENT RAL TO FACTORY

TSTRUCTUOC &

AN MAINANAENE ADMINISTRATION P

_ LSIRRIDATUDIEN ISION

RIGTONETWORK LEA&PRETY|ROUIN AICONS'TRUCTION MAIN ROAD PLANNING I ANDMAINTENANCE _DMAINANE

_ACCESSROAD~S _LIVESTDC FLOODPROTECTION _RP LIFRRIGATION_MAINTENANCE I OILCOTTONSEEDS& CEREALMISC& &SUGARSUGAR BEETCANE L-FILDTIAILS ÉXTENSION

WortdB -k &310 . ., lu---Iternsutc RABAT031 t Kuteui >Improvements to ^/ \tr o ceatrn soiiX s Prolect Area Communications

.Mur.rkech - Primury a secondury rouds not requiring improvement - | PrimuryO -- a secondary roads requiring improvement c - Tertiury couds est requiring improvement S/oendscyaryr tioryraet ods to be strengtheued \ and surfaced with ter -) 3 ...... Unclassified reudu to be strengthened sund uurfuced with tar …Cussified reoduite be surfclced wltb grcovel .Uueclssified rodsd te be suurfuced with gravel SAARA 5 *-- Trucks te bu graveled uusJink reudu lu uetwork

SOcbouttdo,tet toot on tuitotop do ) ( New coud bridge MECHRA BEL KSIRI otp1yonotoct, o-oPto-c uy fte (5 Iriguin development uectionsu: Wotddeonuodtttofflioteo~ Irriigutien wucks completed Icrigution works le progress ______Irrigationworku uot beguu

Sidi ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~m Floed escape ebunnels Sidi ~ ~R ~ ~ ~~ ~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~~~~~~~tS"~~~~~~~f'-Rivers Allail-- Railwuys

MILES 3 T34t30 /A r-1

t; ~~~~~~~~R/VEROL/ERRU

d~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~1s-CON 2634 2642

-i te-,~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~C

6 / SiEiSlimone X~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~SidiKacemI_ . SEBOUII PROJECT - M'Jro M ° ° N T \ FloodProtection Works R -N0 RL, STAGEI FLOODPROTECTION MEASURES° R.Oonu- 'Irrigation developmentsectisns o - --Droins \O-- ---5e' -- , R~ Af

e ecapes;ood chinnels Kenitra 'R g . - Tazo FUTUREFLOOP PROTECTIONALTERNATIVES: =====Left bank diversionchannel - i-ResI ___Right bankevacuation chonnel 34° IjABAT ElKonsr= .e v-AÂARîght bonk divereioî chonOuel ,

A-F Protected zones sO Melr-e- - Flood protection embonkments b 5 -=-,Rivers -o,

SEBOURIVER BASIN - . 0 2 40 3 6 0 0 .0 *\ -

4 6- MILES

v SoukTleta du Rharb, 4444 M JAA O 44 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~DAMSITE

Vi u -) ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~.444oc yhrabel Ksiri - R

34'30 ' L% -34' 30

` = Su ROUa -. \~~~~~~o , . 8, _ 0rr -deHo=:- - >! ~'_

0 , Gseddori" \ OMagnmne t ""' Dor SidiAbdel MOgh,OraE Du GFd

5 ebo- zat1^`x<

,Sidî ;Yuhya~ = ~- \ \ L Azib es Soltane

- Bi idb Y'a-h J; Y-ahya oSidi , \ \cx la.----,~ ~~ ~ ~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~~~~.' - - t-yf;;,/ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Slimune ! !`\ ~~~~~~Sidi ''

KENITRA ( - \ l0o ToaierOa 5

( i \Sidia Kacem a '- i, -

a) ~~~~~~~~At/a nt, RA5Ai' Kce, i 'i eK

0 0

oo 2~2 30 40 0 EL KANSERA \ ,EO

O51.0 1M5 20 25 30re, ,, M IiEs y;»z z , .shIC SAA i