Q1'21 Shareholder Letter
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Beauty Is Not in the Eye of the Beholder
Insight Consumer and Wealth Management Digital Assets: Beauty Is Not in the Eye of the Beholder Parsing the Beauty from the Beast. Investment Strategy Group | June 2021 Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani Chief Investment Officer Investment Strategy Group Goldman Sachs The co-authors give special thanks to: Farshid Asl Managing Director Matheus Dibo Shahz Khatri Vice President Vice President Brett Nelson Managing Director Michael Murdoch Vice President Jakub Duda Shep Moore-Berg Harm Zebregs Vice President Vice President Vice President Shivani Gupta Analyst Oussama Fatri Yousra Zerouali Vice President Analyst ISG material represents the views of ISG in Consumer and Wealth Management (“CWM”) of GS. It is not financial research or a product of GS Global Investment Research (“GIR”) and may vary significantly from those expressed by individual portfolio management teams within CWM, or other groups at Goldman Sachs. 2021 INSIGHT Dear Clients, There has been enormous change in the world of cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology since we first wrote about it in 2017. The number of cryptocurrencies has increased from about 2,000, with a market capitalization of over $200 billion in late 2017, to over 8,000, with a market capitalization of about $1.6 trillion. For context, the market capitalization of global equities is about $110 trillion, that of the S&P 500 stocks is $35 trillion and that of US Treasuries is $22 trillion. Reported trading volume in cryptocurrencies, as represented by the two largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, has increased sixfold, from an estimated $6.8 billion per day in late 2017 to $48.6 billion per day in May 2021.1 This data is based on what is called “clean data” from Coin Metrics; the total reported trading volume is significantly higher, but much of it is artificially inflated.2,3 For context, trading volume on US equity exchanges doubled over the same period. -
Pwc I 2Nd Global Crypto M&A and Fundraising Report
2nd Global Crypto M&A and Fundraising Report April 2020 2 PwC I 2nd Global Crypto M&A and Fundraising Report Dear Clients and Friends, We are proud to launch the 2nd edition of our Global Crypto M&A and Fundraising Report. We hope that the market colour and insights from this report will be useful data points. We will continue to publish this report twice a year to enable you to monitor the ongoing trends in the crypto ecosystem. PwC has put together a “one stop shop” offering, focused on crypto services across our various lines of services in over 25 jurisdictions, including the most active crypto jurisdictions. Our goal is to service your needs in the best possible way leveraging the PwC network and allowing you to make your project a success. Our crypto clients include crypto exchanges, crypto investors, crypto asset managers, ICOs/IEOs/STOs/stable and asset backed tokens, traditional financial institutions entering the crypto space as well as governments, central banks, regulators and other policy makers looking at the crypto ecosystem. As part of our “one stop shop” offering, we provide an entire range of services to the crypto ecosystem including strategy, legal, regulatory, accounting, tax, governance, risk assurance, audit, cybersecurity, M&A advisory as well as capital raising. More details are available on our global crypto page as well as at the back of this report. 2nd Global Crypto M&A and Fundraising Report April 2020 PwC 2 3 PwC I 2nd Global Crypto M&A and Fundraising Report 5 Key takeaways when comparing 2018 vs 2019 There -
Is Bitcoin Really Untethered?
THE JOURNAL OF FINANCE • VOL. LXXV, NO. 4 • AUGUST 2020 Is Bitcoin Really Untethered? JOHN M. GRIFFIN and AMIN SHAMS∗ ABSTRACT This paper investigates whether Tether, a digital currency pegged to the U.S. dollar, influenced Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency prices during the 2017 boom. Using al- gorithms to analyze blockchain data, we find that purchases with Tether are timed following market downturns and result in sizable increases in Bitcoin prices. The flow is attributable to one entity, clusters below round prices, induces asymmetric auto- correlations in Bitcoin, and suggests insufficient Tether reserves before month-ends. Rather than demand from cash investors, these patterns are most consistent with the supply-based hypothesis of unbacked digital money inflating cryptocurrency prices. INNOVATION, EXCESSIVE SPECULATION, AND DUBIOUS behavior are often closely linked. Periods of extreme price increases followed by implosion, commonly known as “bubbles,” are often associated with legitimate inventions, technolo- gies, or opportunities. However, they can be carried to excess. In particu- lar, financial bubbles often coincide with the belief that a rapid gain can be ∗John M. Griffin is at the McCombs School of Business, University of Texas at Austin. Amin Shams is at the Fisher College of Business, Ohio State University. Helpful comments were received from Stefan Nagel (the editor); an associate editor; two anonymous referees; Cesare Fracassi; Sam Kruger; Shaun MaGruder; Gregor Matvos; Nikolai Roussanov; Clemens Sialm; and seminar and conference -
A Cryptocurrency Spectrum Short Analysis
Journal of Risk and Financial Management Review A Cryptocurrency Spectrum Short Analysis 1 2 3 Mircea Constantin S, cheau , Simona Liliana Crăciunescu , Iulia Brici and Monica Violeta Achim 3,* 1 Faculty of Automation, Computers and Electronics, University of Craiova, 200585 Craiova, Romania; [email protected] 2 Simona Liliana Crăciunescu, The Bucharest University of Economic Studies, 010374 Bucharest, Romania; [email protected] 3 Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Babes, -Bolyai University, 400591 Cluj-Napoca, Romania; [email protected] * Correspondence: [email protected] Received: 30 June 2020; Accepted: 11 August 2020; Published: 17 August 2020 Abstract: Technological development brings about economic changes that affect most citizens, both in developed and undeveloped countries. The implementation of blockchain technologies that bring cryptocurrencies into the economy and everyday life also induce risks. Authorities are continuously concerned about ensuring balance, which is, among other things, a prudent attitude. Achieving this goal sometimes requires the development of standards and regulations applicable at the national or global level. This paper attempts to dive deeper into the worldwide operations, related to cryptocurrencies, as part of a general phenomenon, and also expose some of the intersections with cybercrime. Without impeding creativity, implementing suggested proposals must comply with the rules in effect and provide sufficient flexibility for adapting and integrating them. Different segments need to align or reposition, as alteration is only allowed in a positive way. Adopting cryptocurrency decisions should be unitary, based on standard policies. Keywords: cryptocurrencies; fraud; algorithms; correlations; impact; risks; regulation; blockchain 1. Introduction In the area of influence of computer science, the terms undergo rapid mutations, both in sense and interpretability. -
The Bitcoin Trading Ecosystem
ArcaneReport(PrintReady).qxp 21/07/2021 14:43 Page 1 THE INSTITUTIONAL CRYPTO CURRENCY EXCHANGE INSIDE FRONT COVER: BLANK ArcaneReport(PrintReady).qxp 21/07/2021 14:43 Page 3 The Bitcoin Trading Ecosystem Arcane Research LMAX Digital Arcane Research is a part of Arcane Crypto, bringing LMAX Digital is the leading institutional spot data-driven analysis and research to the cryptocurrency exchange, run by the LMAX Group, cryptocurrency space. After launch in August 2019, which also operates several leading FCA regulated Arcane Research has become a trusted brand, trading venues for FX, metals and indices. Based on helping clients strengthen their credibility and proven, proprietary technology from LMAX Group, visibility through research reports and analysis. In LMAX Digital allows global institutions to acquire, addition, we regularly publish reports, weekly market trade and hold the most liquid digital assets, Bitcoin, updates and articles to educate and share insights. Ethereum, Litecoin, Bitcoin Cash and XRP, safely and securely. Arcane Crypto develops and invests in projects, focusing on bitcoin and digital assets. Arcane Trading with all the largest institutions globally, operates a portfolio of businesses, spanning the LMAX Digital is a primary price discovery venue, value chain for digital nance. As a group, Arcane streaming real-time market data to the industry’s deliver services targeting payments, investment, and leading indices and analytics platforms, enhancing trading, in addition to a media and research leg. the quality of market information available to investors and enabling a credible overview of the Arcane has the ambition to become a leading player spot crypto currency market. in the digital assets space by growing the existing businesses, invest in cutting edge projects, and LMAX Digital is regulated by the Gibraltar Financial through acquisitions and consolidation. -
An Investigative Study of Cryptocurrency Abuses in the Dark Web
Cybercriminal Minds: An investigative study of cryptocurrency abuses in the Dark Web Seunghyeon Leeyz Changhoon Yoonz Heedo Kangy Yeonkeun Kimy Yongdae Kimy Dongsu Hany Sooel Sony Seungwon Shinyz yKAIST zS2W LAB Inc. {seunghyeon, kangheedo, yeonk, yongdaek, dhan.ee, sl.son, claude}@kaist.ac.kr {cy}@s2wlab.com Abstract—The Dark Web is notorious for being a major known as one of the major drug trading sites [13], [22], and distribution channel of harmful content as well as unlawful goods. WannaCry malware, one of the most notorious ransomware, Perpetrators have also used cryptocurrencies to conduct illicit has actively used the Dark Web to operate C&C servers [50]. financial transactions while hiding their identities. The limited Cryptocurrency also presents a similar situation. Apart from coverage and outdated data of the Dark Web in previous studies a centralized server, cryptocurrencies (e.g., Bitcoin [58] and motivated us to conduct an in-depth investigative study to under- Ethereum [72]) enable people to conduct peer-to-peer trades stand how perpetrators abuse cryptocurrencies in the Dark Web. We designed and implemented MFScope, a new framework which without central authorities, and thus it is hard to identify collects Dark Web data, extracts cryptocurrency information, and trading peers. analyzes their usage characteristics on the Dark Web. Specifically, Similar to the case of the Dark Web, cryptocurrencies MFScope collected more than 27 million dark webpages and also provide benefits to our society in that they can redesign extracted around 10 million unique cryptocurrency addresses for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Monero. It then classified their usages to financial trading mechanisms and thus motivate new business identify trades of illicit goods and traced cryptocurrency money models, but are also adopted in financial crimes (e.g., money flows, to reveal black money operations on the Dark Web. -
Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies Law Enforcement Investigative Guide
2018-46528652 Regional Organized Crime Information Center Special Research Report Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies Law Enforcement Investigative Guide Ref # 8091-4ee9-ae43-3d3759fc46fb 2018-46528652 Regional Organized Crime Information Center Special Research Report Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies Law Enforcement Investigative Guide verybody’s heard about Bitcoin by now. How the value of this new virtual currency wildly swings with the latest industry news or even rumors. Criminals use Bitcoin for money laundering and other Enefarious activities because they think it can’t be traced and can be used with anonymity. How speculators are making millions dealing in this trend or fad that seems more like fanciful digital technology than real paper money or currency. Some critics call Bitcoin a scam in and of itself, a new high-tech vehicle for bilking the masses. But what are the facts? What exactly is Bitcoin and how is it regulated? How can criminal investigators track its usage and use transactions as evidence of money laundering or other financial crimes? Is Bitcoin itself fraudulent? Ref # 8091-4ee9-ae43-3d3759fc46fb 2018-46528652 Bitcoin Basics Law Enforcement Needs to Know About Cryptocurrencies aw enforcement will need to gain at least a basic Bitcoins was determined by its creator (a person Lunderstanding of cyptocurrencies because or entity known only as Satoshi Nakamoto) and criminals are using cryptocurrencies to launder money is controlled by its inherent formula or algorithm. and make transactions contrary to law, many of them The total possible number of Bitcoins is 21 million, believing that cryptocurrencies cannot be tracked or estimated to be reached in the year 2140. -
Transparent and Collaborative Proof-Of-Work Consensus
StrongChain: Transparent and Collaborative Proof-of-Work Consensus Pawel Szalachowski, Daniël Reijsbergen, and Ivan Homoliak, Singapore University of Technology and Design (SUTD); Siwei Sun, Institute of Information Engineering and DCS Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences https://www.usenix.org/conference/usenixsecurity19/presentation/szalachowski This paper is included in the Proceedings of the 28th USENIX Security Symposium. August 14–16, 2019 • Santa Clara, CA, USA 978-1-939133-06-9 Open access to the Proceedings of the 28th USENIX Security Symposium is sponsored by USENIX. StrongChain: Transparent and Collaborative Proof-of-Work Consensus Pawel Szalachowski1 Daniel¨ Reijsbergen1 Ivan Homoliak1 Siwei Sun2;∗ 1Singapore University of Technology and Design (SUTD) 2Institute of Information Engineering and DCS Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences Abstract a cryptographically-protected append-only list [2] is intro- duced. This list consists of transactions grouped into blocks Bitcoin is the most successful cryptocurrency so far. This and is usually referred to as a blockchain. Every active pro- is mainly due to its novel consensus algorithm, which is tocol participant (called a miner) collects transactions sent based on proof-of-work combined with a cryptographically- by users and tries to solve a computationally-hard puzzle in protected data structure and a rewarding scheme that incen- order to be able to write to the blockchain (the process of tivizes nodes to participate. However, despite its unprece- solving the puzzle is called mining). When a valid solution dented success Bitcoin suffers from many inefficiencies. For is found, it is disseminated along with the transactions that instance, Bitcoin’s consensus mechanism has been proved to the miner wishes to append. -
Regulating Storage Overhead in Existing Pow-Based Blockchains
Regulating Storage Overhead in Existing PoW-based Blockchains Frederik Armknecht Jens-Matthias Bohli* University of Mannheim Mannheim University of Applied Sciences Germany Germany [email protected] [email protected] Ghassan O. Karame Wenting Li NEC Laboratories Europe NEC Laboratories Europe Germany Germany [email protected] [email protected] ABSTRACT so far. This resulted in a sharp variance in the number of Proof of Work (PoW) blockchains regulate the frequency and blockchain replicas over time. Namely, during the early years security of extensions to the blockchain in a decentralized of PoW blockchains, every miner was also a \full-node" and manner by adjusting the difficulty in the network. However, stored a full copy of the blockchain. As a result, the blockchain analogous decentralized measures to regulate the replica- witnessed an unprecedented level of replication (>200,000 tion level of the associated transactions and blocks data are replica) until early 2014 [14, 15]. Nowadays, the current completely missing so far. We argue that such measures are difficulty level of PoW mining is prohibitively high enough required as well. On the one hand, the smaller the number that miners do not have incentives to operate solo. Instead, of replicas, the higher the vulnerability of the system against joining a mining pool emerges as an attractive option for compromises and DoS-attacks. On the other hand, the larger miners to receive a portion of the block reward on a consistent the number of replicas, the higher the storage overhead, and basis. Here, workers do not connect directly to the blockchain; the higher the operational blockchain cost are. -
Exploring the Interconnectedness of Cryptocurrencies Using Correlation Networks
Exploring the Interconnectedness of Cryptocurrencies using Correlation Networks Andrew Burnie UCL Computer Science Doctoral Student at The Alan Turing Institute [email protected] Conference Paper presented at The Cryptocurrency Research Conference 2018, 24 May 2018, Anglia Ruskin University Lord Ashcroft International Business School Centre for Financial Research, Cambridge, UK. Abstract Correlation networks were used to detect characteristics which, although fixed over time, have an important influence on the evolution of prices over time. Potentially important features were identified using the websites and whitepapers of cryptocurrencies with the largest userbases. These were assessed using two datasets to enhance robustness: one with fourteen cryptocurrencies beginning from 9 November 2017, and a subset with nine cryptocurrencies starting 9 September 2016, both ending 6 March 2018. Separately analysing the subset of cryptocurrencies raised the number of data points from 115 to 537, and improved robustness to changes in relationships over time. Excluding USD Tether, the results showed a positive association between different cryptocurrencies that was statistically significant. Robust, strong positive associations were observed for six cryptocurrencies where one was a fork of the other; Bitcoin / Bitcoin Cash was an exception. There was evidence for the existence of a group of cryptocurrencies particularly associated with Cardano, and a separate group correlated with Ethereum. The data was not consistent with a token’s functionality or creation mechanism being the dominant determinants of the evolution of prices over time but did suggest that factors other than speculation contributed to the price. Keywords: Correlation Networks; Interconnectedness; Contagion; Speculation 1 1. Introduction The year 2017 saw the start of a rapid diversification in cryptocurrencies. -
First Crypto Index in Hong Kong
First crypto index in Hong Kong Index Review 2021 Q1 1 Market Overview 2 Historical Crypto Market Capitalization (free-floated) & Bitcoin Price (Dec 2018 - Mar 2021) 2021 Q1 Market Cap Bitcoin Price The total Market Cap and Bitcoin price kept the upward trend during this quarter. Source: CoinMarketCap as of 31/03/2021 HKT 3 Crypto market overview Top 10 Cryptos No Name Market Cap Price % Change* 2021 Q1 1 Bitcoin $1,099,939,890,804 $58,917.69 104.28% 2 Ethereum $212,788,788,571 $1,846.03 145.61% 9,000 + Crypto Currencies 3 Binance Coin $48,125,603,373 $311.43 716.54% 4 Tether $40,681,086,817 $1.00 0.00% 131 Billion USD Daily Volume 5 Cardano $38,763,410,938 $1.21 557.47% 6 Polkadot $31,495,837,002 $34.07 369.93% 7 XRP $25,737,663,165 $0.57 167.62% 1.88 Trillion USD Market Cap 8 Uniswap $14,871,243,021 $28.49 588.16% 9 Litecoin $13,129,004,499 $196.68 51.91% 10 THETA $12,977,378,293 $12.98 711.25% Source: CoinMarketCap as of 31/03/2021 HKT • % Change since the end of last quarter 4 Crypto market overview 2020 Q4 2020 Q3 9,000 + Crypto Currencies (+11.1%) 8,100 + Crypto Currencies 131 Billion USD Daily Volume (-29.1%) 185 Billion USD Daily Volume 1.88 Trillion USD Market Cap (+147%) 762 Billion USD Market Cap Compared with last review, total market cap rose by 147%, while the daily volume cooled down by 29.1%. -
What Keeps Stablecoins Stable?
What Keeps Stablecoins Stable? Richard K. Lyons and Ganesh Viswanath-Natraj∗ First version: December 21, 2019 (posted SSRN) This version: May 3, 2020 Abstract We take this question to be isomorphic to, "What Keeps Fixed Exchange Rates Fixed?" and address it with analysis familiar in exchange-rate economics. Stablecoins solve the volatility problem by pegging to a national currency, typically the US dollar, and are used as vehicles for exchanging national currencies into non-stable cryptocurrencies, with some stablecoins having a ratio of trading volume to outstanding supply exceeding one daily. Using a rich dataset of signed trades and order books on multiple exchanges, we examine how peg-sustaining arbitrage stabilizes the price of the largest stablecoin, Tether. We find that stablecoin issuance, the closest analogue to central-bank intervention, plays only a limited role in stabilization, pointing instead to stabilizing forces on the demand side. Following Tether’s introduction to the Ethereum blockchain in 2019, we find increased investor access to arbitrage trades, and a decline in arbitrage spreads from 70 to 30 basis points. We also pin down which fundamentals drive the two-sided distribution of peg- price deviations: Premiums are due to stablecoins’ role as a safe haven, exhibiting, for example, premiums greater than 100 basis points during the COVID-19 crisis of March 2020; discounts derive from liquidity effects and collateral concerns. Keywords: Cryptocurrency, stablecoins, fixed exchange rates, monetary policy, intervention JEL Classifications: E5, F3, F4, G15, G18 ∗UC Berkeley Haas School of Business and NBER ([email protected]), and Warwick Business School ([email protected]), respectively.