From Tether to Libra: Stablecoins, Digital Currency and the Future of Money
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Beauty Is Not in the Eye of the Beholder
Insight Consumer and Wealth Management Digital Assets: Beauty Is Not in the Eye of the Beholder Parsing the Beauty from the Beast. Investment Strategy Group | June 2021 Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani Chief Investment Officer Investment Strategy Group Goldman Sachs The co-authors give special thanks to: Farshid Asl Managing Director Matheus Dibo Shahz Khatri Vice President Vice President Brett Nelson Managing Director Michael Murdoch Vice President Jakub Duda Shep Moore-Berg Harm Zebregs Vice President Vice President Vice President Shivani Gupta Analyst Oussama Fatri Yousra Zerouali Vice President Analyst ISG material represents the views of ISG in Consumer and Wealth Management (“CWM”) of GS. It is not financial research or a product of GS Global Investment Research (“GIR”) and may vary significantly from those expressed by individual portfolio management teams within CWM, or other groups at Goldman Sachs. 2021 INSIGHT Dear Clients, There has been enormous change in the world of cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology since we first wrote about it in 2017. The number of cryptocurrencies has increased from about 2,000, with a market capitalization of over $200 billion in late 2017, to over 8,000, with a market capitalization of about $1.6 trillion. For context, the market capitalization of global equities is about $110 trillion, that of the S&P 500 stocks is $35 trillion and that of US Treasuries is $22 trillion. Reported trading volume in cryptocurrencies, as represented by the two largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, has increased sixfold, from an estimated $6.8 billion per day in late 2017 to $48.6 billion per day in May 2021.1 This data is based on what is called “clean data” from Coin Metrics; the total reported trading volume is significantly higher, but much of it is artificially inflated.2,3 For context, trading volume on US equity exchanges doubled over the same period. -
Stable Coin Evolution and Market Trends
Stable Coin evolution and market trends Key observations PwC’s market analysis | October 2018 www.pwc.com.au 2 Stable Coin Evolution and Market Trends Stable Coin Evolution and Market Trends 3 Key observations in 5 9 Presently there are at least 75 projects Stablecoins should not be equated with the Stable Coin Evolution that could be considered “stable coin” asset they are backed by in terms of safety projects. With the deluge of projects and and stability. The legitimacy and long term the amount of capital they have raised, the viability of some stablecoins will be at the The stable coin evolution and trends discussed in this paper are the interpretation of information cryptocurrency space could enter into its whim of investor expectations. Understanding gathered via market research and questionnaires sent to 50+ stable coin projects. They are own form of quantitative easing. This may be what these coins truly represent and their therefore interpretation of this data from the authors at the time this paper was drafted. driven by fiat or asset backed funds entering functionalities is a must for anyone who is the ecosystem that could find it’s way into looking to deploy capital into this market. George Samman investing into many of the cryptocurrency Co-Authors: John(3rd party Shipman expert) (PwC) George Samman projects trading on exchanges. [email protected] (3rd party expert) [email protected] https://www.linkedin.com/ in/georgesamman/ 10 6 Fiat-backed stablecoins can never be100% Executive Summary censorship resistant, permission-less and Exchanges are hedging themselves against trust-less. -
Banking on Bitcoin: BTC As Collateral
Banking on Bitcoin: BTC as Collateral Arcane Research Bitstamp Arcane Research is a part of Arcane Crypto, Bitstamp is the world’s longest-running bringing data-driven analysis and research cryptocurrency exchange, supporting to the cryptocurrency space. After launch in investors, traders and leading financial August 2019, Arcane Research has become institutions since 2011. With a proven track a trusted brand, helping clients strengthen record, cutting-edge market infrastructure their credibility and visibility through and dedication to personal service with a research reports and analysis. In addition, human touch, Bitstamp’s secure and reliable we regularly publish reports, weekly market trading venue is trusted by over four million updates and articles to educate and share customers worldwide. Whether it’s through insights. their intuitive web platform and mobile app or industry-leading APIs, Bitstamp is where crypto enters the world of finance. For more information, visit www.bitstamp.net 2 Banking on Bitcoin: BTC as Collateral Banking on bitcoin The case for bitcoin as collateral The value of the global market for collateral is estimated to be close to $20 trillion in assets. Government bonds and cash-based securities alike are currently the most important parts of a well- functioning collateral market. However, in that, there is a growing weakness as rehypothecation creates a systemic risk in the financial system as a whole. The increasing reuse of collateral makes these assets far from risk-free and shows the potential instability of the financial markets and that it is more fragile than many would like to admit. Bitcoin could become an important part of the solution and challenge the dominating collateral assets in the future. -
Is Bitcoin Really Untethered?
THE JOURNAL OF FINANCE • VOL. LXXV, NO. 4 • AUGUST 2020 Is Bitcoin Really Untethered? JOHN M. GRIFFIN and AMIN SHAMS∗ ABSTRACT This paper investigates whether Tether, a digital currency pegged to the U.S. dollar, influenced Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency prices during the 2017 boom. Using al- gorithms to analyze blockchain data, we find that purchases with Tether are timed following market downturns and result in sizable increases in Bitcoin prices. The flow is attributable to one entity, clusters below round prices, induces asymmetric auto- correlations in Bitcoin, and suggests insufficient Tether reserves before month-ends. Rather than demand from cash investors, these patterns are most consistent with the supply-based hypothesis of unbacked digital money inflating cryptocurrency prices. INNOVATION, EXCESSIVE SPECULATION, AND DUBIOUS behavior are often closely linked. Periods of extreme price increases followed by implosion, commonly known as “bubbles,” are often associated with legitimate inventions, technolo- gies, or opportunities. However, they can be carried to excess. In particu- lar, financial bubbles often coincide with the belief that a rapid gain can be ∗John M. Griffin is at the McCombs School of Business, University of Texas at Austin. Amin Shams is at the Fisher College of Business, Ohio State University. Helpful comments were received from Stefan Nagel (the editor); an associate editor; two anonymous referees; Cesare Fracassi; Sam Kruger; Shaun MaGruder; Gregor Matvos; Nikolai Roussanov; Clemens Sialm; and seminar and conference -
A Cryptocurrency Spectrum Short Analysis
Journal of Risk and Financial Management Review A Cryptocurrency Spectrum Short Analysis 1 2 3 Mircea Constantin S, cheau , Simona Liliana Crăciunescu , Iulia Brici and Monica Violeta Achim 3,* 1 Faculty of Automation, Computers and Electronics, University of Craiova, 200585 Craiova, Romania; [email protected] 2 Simona Liliana Crăciunescu, The Bucharest University of Economic Studies, 010374 Bucharest, Romania; [email protected] 3 Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Babes, -Bolyai University, 400591 Cluj-Napoca, Romania; [email protected] * Correspondence: [email protected] Received: 30 June 2020; Accepted: 11 August 2020; Published: 17 August 2020 Abstract: Technological development brings about economic changes that affect most citizens, both in developed and undeveloped countries. The implementation of blockchain technologies that bring cryptocurrencies into the economy and everyday life also induce risks. Authorities are continuously concerned about ensuring balance, which is, among other things, a prudent attitude. Achieving this goal sometimes requires the development of standards and regulations applicable at the national or global level. This paper attempts to dive deeper into the worldwide operations, related to cryptocurrencies, as part of a general phenomenon, and also expose some of the intersections with cybercrime. Without impeding creativity, implementing suggested proposals must comply with the rules in effect and provide sufficient flexibility for adapting and integrating them. Different segments need to align or reposition, as alteration is only allowed in a positive way. Adopting cryptocurrency decisions should be unitary, based on standard policies. Keywords: cryptocurrencies; fraud; algorithms; correlations; impact; risks; regulation; blockchain 1. Introduction In the area of influence of computer science, the terms undergo rapid mutations, both in sense and interpretability. -
Should the Federal Reserve Issue a Central Bank Digital Currency? by Paul H
Should the Federal Reserve Issue a Central Bank Digital Currency? By Paul H. Kupiec August 2021 During Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s July 2021 congressional testimony, several elected members encouraged Powell to fast-track the issuance of a Federal Reserve digital cur- rency. Chairman Powell indicated he is not convinced there is a need for a Fed digital currency. But he also indicated that Fed staff are actively studying the issue and that his opinion could change based on their findings and recommendations. In this report, I explain how a new Fed- eral Reserve digital currency would interface with the existing payment system and review the policy issues associated with introducing a Fed digital currency. The Bank for International Settlements defines Governors of the Federal Reserve System 2021b). “central bank digital currency” as “a digital payment Digital deposits are money recorded in (electronic) instrument, denominated in the national unit of ledger entries with no physical form. Digital Fed- account, that is a direct liability of the central eral Reserve deposits can only be held by financial bank” (BIS 2020). In his semiannual appearance institutions (primarily banks) eligible for master before Congress, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome accounts at a Federal Reserve bank. Powell indicated that the Fed was studying the idea Most businesses and consumers are not eligible of creating a new dollar-based central bank digital to own Federal Reserve master accounts, so they currency (USCBDC) (Lee 2021). The design of cannot own Federal Reserve digital deposits under USCBDC has important implications for the US finan- current arrangements. They can own central bank cial system. -
Blockchain 101 for Lawyers and 2019 Year in Review
Blockchain 101 for Lawyers and 2019 Year in Review February 19, 2020 12:30 p.m. – 1:30 p.m. CT Bar Association New Britain, CT CT Bar Institute, Inc. CT: 1.0 CLE Credits (General) NY: 1.0 CLE Credits (AOP) No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy of these materials. Readers should check primary sources where appropriate and use the traditional legal research techniques to make sure that the information has not been affected or changed by recent developments. Page 1 of 51 Lawyers’ Principles of Professionalism As a lawyer I must strive to make our system of justice work fairly and Where consistent with my client's interests, I will communicate with efficiently. In order to carry out that responsibility, not only will I comply opposing counsel in an effort to avoid litigation and to resolve litigation with the letter and spirit of the disciplinary standards applicable to all that has actually commenced; lawyers, but I will also conduct myself in accordance with the following Principles of Professionalism when dealing with my client, opposing I will withdraw voluntarily claims or defense when it becomes apparent parties, their counsel, the courts and the general public. that they do not have merit or are superfluous; Civility and courtesy are the hallmarks of professionalism and should not I will not file frivolous motions; be equated with weakness; I will endeavor to be courteous and civil, both in oral and in written I will make every effort to agree with other counsel, as early as possible, on communications; a voluntary -
Exploring the Interconnectedness of Cryptocurrencies Using Correlation Networks
Exploring the Interconnectedness of Cryptocurrencies using Correlation Networks Andrew Burnie UCL Computer Science Doctoral Student at The Alan Turing Institute [email protected] Conference Paper presented at The Cryptocurrency Research Conference 2018, 24 May 2018, Anglia Ruskin University Lord Ashcroft International Business School Centre for Financial Research, Cambridge, UK. Abstract Correlation networks were used to detect characteristics which, although fixed over time, have an important influence on the evolution of prices over time. Potentially important features were identified using the websites and whitepapers of cryptocurrencies with the largest userbases. These were assessed using two datasets to enhance robustness: one with fourteen cryptocurrencies beginning from 9 November 2017, and a subset with nine cryptocurrencies starting 9 September 2016, both ending 6 March 2018. Separately analysing the subset of cryptocurrencies raised the number of data points from 115 to 537, and improved robustness to changes in relationships over time. Excluding USD Tether, the results showed a positive association between different cryptocurrencies that was statistically significant. Robust, strong positive associations were observed for six cryptocurrencies where one was a fork of the other; Bitcoin / Bitcoin Cash was an exception. There was evidence for the existence of a group of cryptocurrencies particularly associated with Cardano, and a separate group correlated with Ethereum. The data was not consistent with a token’s functionality or creation mechanism being the dominant determinants of the evolution of prices over time but did suggest that factors other than speculation contributed to the price. Keywords: Correlation Networks; Interconnectedness; Contagion; Speculation 1 1. Introduction The year 2017 saw the start of a rapid diversification in cryptocurrencies. -
First Crypto Index in Hong Kong
First crypto index in Hong Kong Index Review 2021 Q1 1 Market Overview 2 Historical Crypto Market Capitalization (free-floated) & Bitcoin Price (Dec 2018 - Mar 2021) 2021 Q1 Market Cap Bitcoin Price The total Market Cap and Bitcoin price kept the upward trend during this quarter. Source: CoinMarketCap as of 31/03/2021 HKT 3 Crypto market overview Top 10 Cryptos No Name Market Cap Price % Change* 2021 Q1 1 Bitcoin $1,099,939,890,804 $58,917.69 104.28% 2 Ethereum $212,788,788,571 $1,846.03 145.61% 9,000 + Crypto Currencies 3 Binance Coin $48,125,603,373 $311.43 716.54% 4 Tether $40,681,086,817 $1.00 0.00% 131 Billion USD Daily Volume 5 Cardano $38,763,410,938 $1.21 557.47% 6 Polkadot $31,495,837,002 $34.07 369.93% 7 XRP $25,737,663,165 $0.57 167.62% 1.88 Trillion USD Market Cap 8 Uniswap $14,871,243,021 $28.49 588.16% 9 Litecoin $13,129,004,499 $196.68 51.91% 10 THETA $12,977,378,293 $12.98 711.25% Source: CoinMarketCap as of 31/03/2021 HKT • % Change since the end of last quarter 4 Crypto market overview 2020 Q4 2020 Q3 9,000 + Crypto Currencies (+11.1%) 8,100 + Crypto Currencies 131 Billion USD Daily Volume (-29.1%) 185 Billion USD Daily Volume 1.88 Trillion USD Market Cap (+147%) 762 Billion USD Market Cap Compared with last review, total market cap rose by 147%, while the daily volume cooled down by 29.1%. -
What Keeps Stablecoins Stable?
What Keeps Stablecoins Stable? Richard K. Lyons and Ganesh Viswanath-Natraj∗ First version: December 21, 2019 (posted SSRN) This version: May 3, 2020 Abstract We take this question to be isomorphic to, "What Keeps Fixed Exchange Rates Fixed?" and address it with analysis familiar in exchange-rate economics. Stablecoins solve the volatility problem by pegging to a national currency, typically the US dollar, and are used as vehicles for exchanging national currencies into non-stable cryptocurrencies, with some stablecoins having a ratio of trading volume to outstanding supply exceeding one daily. Using a rich dataset of signed trades and order books on multiple exchanges, we examine how peg-sustaining arbitrage stabilizes the price of the largest stablecoin, Tether. We find that stablecoin issuance, the closest analogue to central-bank intervention, plays only a limited role in stabilization, pointing instead to stabilizing forces on the demand side. Following Tether’s introduction to the Ethereum blockchain in 2019, we find increased investor access to arbitrage trades, and a decline in arbitrage spreads from 70 to 30 basis points. We also pin down which fundamentals drive the two-sided distribution of peg- price deviations: Premiums are due to stablecoins’ role as a safe haven, exhibiting, for example, premiums greater than 100 basis points during the COVID-19 crisis of March 2020; discounts derive from liquidity effects and collateral concerns. Keywords: Cryptocurrency, stablecoins, fixed exchange rates, monetary policy, intervention JEL Classifications: E5, F3, F4, G15, G18 ∗UC Berkeley Haas School of Business and NBER ([email protected]), and Warwick Business School ([email protected]), respectively. -
Regulation, Supervision and Oversight of “Global Stablecoin” Arrangements
Regulation, Supervision and Oversight of “Global Stablecoin” Arrangements Final Report and High-Level Recommendations 13 October 2020 The Financial Stability Board (FSB) coordinates at the international level the work of national financial authorities and international standard-setting bodies in order to develop and promote the implementation of effective regulatory, supervisory and other financial sector policies. Its mandate is set out in the FSB Charter, which governs the policymaking and related activities of the FSB. These activities, including any decisions reached in their context, shall not be binding or give rise to any legal rights or obligations. Contact the Financial Stability Board Sign up for e-mail alerts: www.fsb.org/emailalert Follow the FSB on Twitter: @FinStbBoard E-mail the FSB at: [email protected] Copyright © 2020 Financial Stability Board. Please refer to the terms and conditions Table of Contents Executive summary ................................................................................................................. 1 Glossary .................................................................................................................................. 5 Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 7 1. Characteristics of global stablecoins ................................................................................ 9 1.1. Stabilisation mechanism ....................................................................................... -
BITBOND RESEARCH REPORT Digital Assets2021 Institutional Adoptionof Bitbond July 2021 Research Report
Institutional Adoption of Digital Assets 2021 Bitbond Research Report July 2021 RESEARCH REPORT RESEARCH BITBOND 1 Foreword Capital markets and financial services are currently going through an unprecedented level of change. While fintech companies have been reshaping consumer finance for several years, more recently, this force for change has also arrived in the institutional finance world. Foreword Corporate and investment banks, asset managers, institutional We hope you enjoy reading it and that you will be as excited investors, family offices, and other market participants are as we are when discovering that the institutional adoption becoming increasingly driven by technology. Either to gain a of digital assets is not a future promise but a reality that is competitive advantage, fight decreasing margins, or adapt to already here today. regulatory changes. We thank the entire Bitbond team for putting the hard work As part of this development, financial institutions are increas- into this research piece that it takes to create a full picture of ingly turning to digital assets to take advantage of the vast the status quo. Special thanks go to Bitbond crew members opportunities behind distributed ledger technology (DLT), Felix Stremmer and Henri Falque-Pierrotin, as well as senior blockchain, and decentralized finance (DeFi). At the time of banking analyst Sam Theodore for writing the introduction. publication, the total market capitalization of digital assets is We would equally like to thank all contributors at the around USD 1.4 trillion—a fivefold increase over one year. numerous financial institutions who were so open to sharing their insights with us. Without your input, this report would not While the absolute value may seem insignificant compared have been possible.