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Amorepacific (090430 KS) Korea Consumer Staples 26 July 2018 Amorepacific (090430 KS) Target price: KRW410,000 (from KRW440,000) Share price (26 Jul): KRW268,000 | Up/downside: +53.0% 2Q18 review: earnings likely to have bottomed We expect earnings growth to accelerate for DFS and China from 3Q18 Iris Park (82) 2787 9165 [email protected] Enhanced focus on luxury cosmetics should meet demand in China Reiterating our Buy (1) rating; lowering 12-month TP to KRW410,000 What's new: Amorepacific recorded weaker-than-expected 2Q18 earnings, Forecast revisions (%) mainly due to one-off expenses. We remain positive on the stock as we believe Year to 31 Dec 18E 19E 20E 2Q18 to be the bottom in terms of earnings. Revenue change (4.9) (3.9) (4.5) Net profit change (13.1) (2.4) (3.1) Core EPS (FD) change (13.1) (2.4) (3.1) What's the impact: 2Q18 review. Amorepacific’s 2Q18 revenue came in at Source: Daiwa forecasts KRW1.3tn (+11.5% YoY), in line with expectations. In Korea, revenue resumed growth in 2Q18 (KRW878bn, +9.0% YoY). Even without DFS (KRW305bn, Share price performance +29.3% YoY), pure domestic revenue recorded positive growth on new product (KRW) (%) launches for major brands. We note that it is continuously gaining market share 355,000 125 in both door-to-door and online channels. In China, 2Q18 revenue growth was 321,250 115 in the mid-teens YoY in local currency terms. High-end brands, like Sulwhasoo 287,500 105 and Hera, increased its revenue by 30-50% YoY, offsetting the slowdown in 253,750 95 220,000 85 Laniege and Mamonde. China’s online revenue growth was >40% YoY in Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 2Q18, accounting for c.25% of Mainland China’s revenue. Ex-China Asia sales Amore (LHS) Relative to KOSPI (RHS) were up by >20% YoY, largely led by strong growth in Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia. Its 2Q18 operating profit was below estimates due to unexpected 12-month range 239,500-351,500 changes in the wage structure. Amorepacific increased its portion of fixed Market cap (USDbn) 13.91 salary to lower volatility in employees’ income. It booked the provisioning for 3m avg daily turnover (USDm) 43.10 this change related to 1Q18 in 2Q18, causing a one-off expense of KRW10bn. Shares outstanding (m) 58 Amorepacific Group (35.4%) Major shareholder Earnings growth to accelerate from 3Q18E. We believe Amorepacific’s Financial summary (KRW) earnings growth is bottoming out as the company becomes more flexible. From Year to 31 Dec 18E 19E 20E the last week of June, the company lowered its DFS purchase limits: from 5 Revenue (bn) 5,780 6,769 7,622 products per brand to 5 products per item. We believe this could increase Operating profit (bn) 798 1,138 1,309 Amorepacific’s ticket price by at least 50% to nearly double. Another reason for Net profit (bn) 604 873 1,003 Core EPS (fully-diluted) 10,346 14,945 17,165 our bullish view is its higher online penetration in China. Previously, Sulwhasoo EPS change (%) 51.9 44.5 14.9 was only carried in T-mall, but in 2Q18, the brand was also launched in Daiwa vs Cons. EPS (%) 3.4 23.9 21.7 VIP.com. In addition, it plans to release new products in China to accelerate PER (x) 25.9 17.9 15.6 top-line growth. Most new product launches will be made in 2H18, especially Dividend yield (%) 0.7 0.7 0.8 DPS 1,850 2,000 2,120 the high-end products, which would meet the demand for luxury cosmetics, in PBR (x) 3.3 2.8 2.4 our view. EV/EBITDA (x) 14.6 10.6 8.8 ROE (%) 13.6 16.9 16.4 What we recommend: We reiterate our Buy (1) rating, but lower our 12-month Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts TP to KRW410,000 (from KRW440,000), based on an unchanged target PER of 32.5x on our 2018E-19E average EPS, as we cut our 2018-19E EPS by 2- 13% to factor in: 1) weaker-than-expected 2Q18 earnings, 2) higher 2018E wages, and 3) slower growth in 2018E Chinese tourist arrivals (from 75% to 38%). As we expect growth acceleration for DFS and China from 3Q18, we remain positive on the stock. Risk: weak CNY hurting demand from Chinese tourists. How we differ: Our 2019-20E EPS are 22-24% above the consensus, as we are more bullish on Chinese demand. See important disclosures, including any required research certifications, beginning on page 6 Amorepacific (090430 KS): 26 July 2018 Amorepacific: revenue breakdown (KRWbn) 2017 2018E 2019E 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18P 3Q18E 4Q18E Revenue 5,123.8 5,780.0 6,769.5 1,569.0 1,205.0 1,209.9 1,140.0 1,431.6 1,343.7 1,494.5 1,510.2 Korea 3,297.3 3,688.9 4,218.3 1,054.3 805.5 790.2 647.3 940.8 877.7 967.3 903.1 Cosmetics 2,830.2 3,157.4 3,672.4 941.3 694.7 638.9 555.3 780.7 760.8 809.1 806.9 Travel Retail 1,102.2 1,398.9 1,783.0 419.0 235.8 235.8 211.6 320.2 304.8 363.8 410.2 Digital 372.2 391.3 450.2 112.2 99.8 83.7 76.5 100.6 100.1 95.3 95.3 Mass Beauty & Sulloc 517.2 531.6 545.9 163.1 110.9 151.3 91.9 160.2 116.9 158.2 96.3 Overseas 1,815.2 2,168.2 2,635.5 477.0 408.6 427.3 502.3 500.8 498.0 543.5 625.9 Operating Profit 596.4 797.8 1,138.0 316.8 101.6 101.1 76.9 235.9 145.8 201.3 214.8 YoY growth (%) 2017 2018E 2019E 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18P 3Q18E 4Q18E Revenue -5.7% 11.9% 15.4% 5.7% -16.5% -13.6% -13.4% -8.8% 11.5% 23.5% 32.5% Korea -14.2% 9.3% 12.5% -2.9% -22.5% -21.5% -25.5% -10.8% 9.0% 22.4% 39.5% Cosmetics -16.0% 10.4% 14.2% 1.6% -23.5% -24.5% -27.7% -17.1% 9.5% 26.6% 45.3% Travel Retail -24.8% 22.2% 27.5% 11.1% -39.6% -35.2% -42.6% -23.6% 29.3% 54.3% 93.8% Digital -8.1% 5.0% 15.1% 1.3% -2.3% -20.1% -13.7% -10.3% 0.3% 13.8% 24.6% Mass Beauty & Sulloc -2.7% 3.4% 2.5% 2.8% -14.9% -6.1% -9.6% -1.8% 5.4% 4.6% 4.8% Overseas 7.0% 19.4% 21.6% 16.9% -2.1% 5.0% 8.1% 5.0% 21.9% 31.6% 31.2% Profitability (%) 2017 2018E 2019E 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18P 3Q18E 4Q18E Operating Margin 11.6% 13.8% 16.8% 20.2% 8.4% 8.4% 6.7% 16.5% 10.9% 13.5% 14.2% Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts Amorepacific: OPM by region (2Q17 vs. 2Q18) Amorepacific: domestic revenue of major brands (KRW bn) 17% 12.4% 450 402.0 12.2% 11.7% 400 379.9 356.3 12% 336.3 324.2 328.3 8.2% 350 318.6 271.5 7% 300 256.0 223.3 250 2% 200 150.6 155.1 133.9 152.4 150 122.7 123.2 114.1 95.0 100.4 96.4 (3%) 100 -1.6% 137.9 136.1 -1.8% 50 98.7 100.0 118.2 99.1 82.2 77.7 108.2 90.4 (8%) 0 Korea-cosmetics Korea-mass beauty & Asia 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 sulloc 2Q17 2Q18 Sulwhasoo Hera Laneige Source: Company Source: Company Note: Asia excludes Korea Amorepacific: new product ASP Amorepacific: online sales in China (KRW) 50% Singles’ Day effect 40% 160,000 140,000 ↓ 140,000 40% 30% 120,000 98,000 90,000 90,000 25% 100,000 30% 20% 20% 80,000 63,000 30% 55,000 20% 60,000 25% 40,000 20% 10% 18% 18% 20,000 0 0% Concentrated Ginseng Sulwhasoo Bloomstay Hera rosy-satin cream Renewing Emulsion Vitalizing Essence 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 Original products New products Online revenue growth Revenue portion Source: Company Source: Company 2 Amorepacific (090430 KS): 26 July 2018 Financial summary Key assumptions Year to 31 Dec 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E Duty-free store revenue (KRW bn) 347.8 702.9 1,069.0 1,499.3 1,102.2 1,398.9 1,783.0 2,148.5 China cosmetic revenue (KRW bn) 338.8 464.5 765.8 1,090.9 1,258.0 1,476.9 1,793.5 2,078.1 Chinese inbound YoY growth to Korea 52.5 41.6 (2.3) 34.8 (47.1) 26.8 35.0 24.0 Overseas (ex-China) cosmetic revenue 206.0 365.1 442.1 554.2 509.9 631.8 752.7 875.1 (KRW bn) Profit and loss (KRWbn) Year to 31 Dec 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E Korea cosmetics 2,556 3,041 3,559 4,001 3,638 3,698 4,218 4,673 Others 545 833 1,208 1,645 1,486 2,082 2,551 2,949 Other Revenue 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Revenue 3,100 3,874 4,767 5,645 5,124 5,780 6,769 7,622 Other income 124 136 147 181 224 220 231 253 COGS (912) (1,028) (1,169) (1,425) (1,380) (1,499) (1,619) (1,800) SG&A (1,819) (2,282) (2,824) (3,373) (3,148) (3,483) (4,012) (4,513) Other op.expenses (124) (136) (147) (181) (224) (220) (231) (253) Operating profit 370 564 773 848 596 798 1,138 1,309 Net-interest inc./(exp.) 9 11 22 13 11 17 25 28 Assoc/forex/extraord./others (15) (45) (17) (5) (40) (17) 1 6 Pre-tax profit 364 530 778 857 567 798 1,164 1,343 Tax (96) (145) (194) (211) (169) (194) (291) (340) Min.
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