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Fit for Purpose? the U.S. Strategic Posture in 2030 and Beyond BRAD ROBERTS, EDITOR

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Fit for Purpose? the U.S. Strategic Posture in 2030 and Beyond BRAD ROBERTS, EDITOR Fit for Purpose? The U.S. Strategic Posture in 2030 and Beyond BRAD ROBERTS, EDITOR Center for Global Security Research Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory October 2020 FIT FOR PURPOSE? THE U.S. STRATEGIC POSTURE IN 2030 AND BEYOND BRAD ROBERTS, EDITOR Center for Global Security Research Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory October 2020 FIT FOR PURPOSE? THE U.S. STRATEGIC POSTURE IN 2030 AND BEYOND | 1 This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in part under Contract W-7405-Eng-48 and in part under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344. The views and opinions of the authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States government or Lawrence Livermore National Security, LLC. ISBN-978-1-952565-06-9 LCCN-2020919310 LLNL-MI-815397 TID-60097 2 | BRAD ROBERTS FIT FOR PURPOSE? THE U.S. STRATEGIC POSTURE IN 2030 AND BEYOND | 1 Table of Contents About the Authors . 2 Introduction Brad Roberts . 5 The Nuclear Enterprise in the 21st Century William Goldstein . 8 Modernizing the U.S. Nuclear Arsenal: The Road to 2030 and Beyond John R. Harvey . 16 21st Century Deterrence: Hedging with Resilience Sheryl Hingorani . .28 Missile Defense: Fit for What Purpose in 2030? Brad Roberts . 38 Conventional Prompt Strike in 2030 and Beyond Dean Wilkening. 55 The Changing Role of Space in the U.S. Strategic Posture Benjamin Bahney . 65 Toward an Integrated Strategic Deterrent Paul Bernstein . 75 The Tripolar Strategic Balance in 2030 Linton Brooks . .90 Russia’s Assessment of the 2030 Strategic Balance Anya Loukianova Fink. 97 A 2030 Net Assessment: An Indo-Pacific Perspective Michael Shoebridge . 107 Conclusions Brad Roberts . 116 FIT FOR PURPOSE? THE U.S. STRATEGIC POSTURE IN 2030 AND BEYOND | 1 About the Authors Benjamin Bahney is a political scientist at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and a senior fellow at the Center for Global Security Research. His work focuses on the dynamics of the emerging strategic competition in outer space and cyber space and on how this competition will impact deterrence in the 21st century. He was formerly an analyst at the RAND Corporation. He has an M.A. in international affairs from the University of California, San Diego and a B.A. from the University of Pennsylvania. Paul I. Bernstein is a distinguished fellow at the Center for the Study of Weapons of Mass Destruction, National Defense University in Washington, DC, and a member of the university’s Research Faculty. He leads the Center’s practice in strategic security analysis, and is engaged in a range of policy support, research, and professional military education activities related to weapons of mass destruction, nuclear policy, deterrence, threat reduction, and regional security. He has an M.A. in international affairs from Columbia University. Linton Brooks is an independent consultant on national security issues, a non- resident senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a distinguished research fellow at the National Defense University, a member of the National Academy of Sciences Committee on International Security and Arms Control, a member of the Board of Managers overseeing the operations of Sandia National Laboratories, and an advisor to three other Department of Energy national laboratories. From 2002 to 2007, Ambassador Brooks served as administrator of the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration. He also served as chief U.S. negotiator for the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty. He holds degrees in physics from Duke University and in government and politics from the University of Maryland and is a distinguished graduate of the U.S. Naval War College. Anya Loukianova Fink is a research analyst in the Strategy, Policy, Plans, and Programs (SP3) division at the Center for Naval Analyses (CNA), where she is a member of the Russia Studies Program. Prior to joining CNA, Dr. Fink was a Nuclear Security Working Group fellow in the U.S. Senate and a Stanton Nuclear Security fellow at the RAND Corporation. Fink holds a Ph.D. in international security and economic policy from the School of Public Policy at the University of Maryland, College Park and an MPIA from the Graduate School of Public and International Affairs at the University of Pittsburgh. 2 | BRAD ROBERTS FIT FOR PURPOSE? THE U.S. STRATEGIC POSTURE IN 2030 AND BEYOND | 3 William (Bill) Goldstein is the director of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. He also serves as president of Lawrence Livermore National Security, LLC. Prior to his appointment of director, he was the deputy director for Science and Technology, tasked with leading the strategic deployment of the Laboratory's science and technology capabilities, and taking line responsibility for the institutional roadmap portfolio,which included the Laboratory Directed Research and Development Program, collaborative research with academia and private industry, and institutional planning activities. Goldstein received his doctorate in theoretical physics from Columbia University in New York and a B.Sc. in physics from Swarthmore College in Pennsylvania. John R. Harvey has served in multiple leadership roles including as the principal deputy assistant to the Secretary of Defense for Nuclear and Chemical and Biological Matter, director of the policy planning staff of the National Nuclear Security Administration, and as deputy assistant secretary of Defense for Nuclear Forces and Missile Defense Policy. Prior to taking up government service, he was the director of the Science Program at the Stanford University Center for International Security and Arms Control. Dr. Harvey received his B.A. in physics from Rutgers University and his M.S. and Ph.D. degrees in experimental elementary particle physics from the University of Rochester. Sheryl Hingorani is the acting chief of staff to the director at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. She joined the Laboratory following a 33-year career at Sandia National Laboratories, where she held a variety of key positions in the nuclear deterrence and homeland security programs, most recently leading the Systems Analysis and Engineering organization at the Sandia site in Livermore. She has B.S. and M.S. degrees in mechanical engineering and is an alumna of the Seminar XXI Fellowship program at the MIT Center for International Studies. Brad Roberts is director of the Center for Global Security Research at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. From 2009 to 2013, he was deputy assistant secretary of defense for nuclear and missile defense policy. Prior to entering government service, Dr. Roberts was a research fellow at the Institute for Defense Analyses and the Center for Strategic and International Studies, editor of the Washington Quarterly, and an adjunct professor at George Washington University. He received his B.A. from Stanford University, M.Sc. from the London School of Economics and Political Science, and Ph.D. from Erasmus University, Rotterdam. FIT FOR PURPOSE? THE U.S. STRATEGIC POSTURE IN 2030 AND BEYOND | 3 Michael Shoebridge is the director of the Defence, Strategy and National Security program at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI). He was previously a senior executive in the defense organization and has worked for 25 years in different parts of Australia’s national security community. His career has centered on the connection between strategy, capability, and resources in national security. He has an LL.B. in Economics from the University of Sydney and a Graduate Diploma in Legal Practice from the University of Technology, Sydney. Dean Wilkening is a senior staff scientist in the Precision Strike Mission Area at the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory (APL) with an initial focus on hypersonic technologies. His research interests include ballistic missile defense, nuclear strategy and policy, bioterrorism, ballistic missile defense, and U.S. precision strike capabilities. Prior to joining APL, he worked at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Stanford University’s Center for International Security and Cooperation, and the RAND Corporation. He received his Ph.D. in physics from Harvard University. 4 | BRAD ROBERTS FIT FOR PURPOSE? THE U.S. STRATEGIC POSTURE IN 2030 AND BEYOND | 5 Introduction Brad Roberts The time is ripe to revisit questions about the future of the U.S. strategic posture. Next year, 2021, will bring a new defense strategy review and a return to basic questions of defense policy and posture by a new Congress and perhaps also a new administration. U.S. strategic forces, broadly defined here to include not just nuclear forces but also non-nuclear strategic strike, missile defense, and space and counter- space capabilities, can be expected to play a more prominent role in that process than in the past. This follows from the changing nature of modern warfare, the need to compete with and deter two major power adversaries who put a lot of stock in the strategic dimensions of modern war, and the need to address major concerns about U.S. deterrence strategy articulated in 2018 by the National Defense Strategy Commission.1 To help inform the expected 2021 discussion, CGSR convened two workshops in summer 2020. One focused on the nuclear deterrent, including not just the nuclear triad but also the associated capabilities for command and control as well as for extended deterrence. The other explored the non-nuclear elements of the strategic posture and associated questions about how to ensure the needed integration of these disparate elements. Both looked ahead a decade to 2030 and then another decade to 2040. Both also explored developments in the strategic postures of Russia and China on a comparative basis. In follow up to the workshops, we identified some of the most important ideas for further elaboration. This volume is the result. To help focus our thinking, we posed a simple question: Will the U.S. strategic posture of 2030 be “fit for purpose”? This proved difficult to answer, not least because the question links to so many others.
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