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Mission Innovation MISSION INNOVATION Accelerating the Clean Energy Revolution by Robert C. Marlay U.S. Department of Energy for Experts Group on R&D Priority-Setting and Evaluation International Energy Agency, Paris 17 May 2016 1 Paris Climate Conference and Agreement – Key Features * Limit Warming to Well Below Target, and Try to Well Below 2°C Cap at 1.5°C Balance Anthropogenic GHG Sources and Achieve a Balance Removal by Sinks by Mid-Century Countries Will Review and Submit New, More Every 5 years Ambitious Plans Every Five Years Technology Advance Technology Innovation through Mission Development Innovation and Breakthrough Energy Coalition Collectively Mobilize $100B per Year in Public Mobilize Climate and Private Funding for Developing Economies Finance through 2025 Enhanced Enhance Transparency for Reporting GHG Emissions, Subject to Expert Review Transparency * Report on COP-21, “Inside the Paris Climate Deal”, Science, Warren Cornwall, Dec 2015: Vol. 350, Issue 6267, pp. 1451 2 A Unique Moment in Time All on One Stage -- Leaders of 20 Countries Representing over 80% of Global Clean Energy R&D Investment Agreed to Support a Joint Statement on Innovation Each Country Supported a Doubling of Governmental Clean Energy R&D Investment over Next Five Years (www.mission-innovation.net) Gov’t Investment was Complemented by a Private Sector Initiative led by Bill Gates, the Breakthrough Energy Coalition (www.breakthroughenergycoalition.com) 3 Global Scope Norway Sweden United Kingdom Canada Denmark Germany United France Japan States Italy China Saudi India Republic Mexico Arabia of Korea United Arab Emirates Brazil Indonesia Australia Chile Mission Innovation Countries Represent: 5 Most Populous Countries 60% of the World’s Population 67% of the Total Greenhouse Gas Emissions 70% of Global GDP 75% of the CO2 Emissions from Electricity 80% of Government Investment in Clean Energy R&D 4 Motivating Factors On Climate Change, Time is Running Out: Indexed Cost Reductions Since 2008 . Atmospheric Concentrations of GHGs are Rising, with Inexorable CC Effects Land-Based Wind 120 . Changes in Climate are Manifest, Serious and Distributed PV Increasing 100 Utility-Scale PV . Business as Usual Approach is Unacceptable Modeled Battery Costs . Current Solutions are Ill-Suited or Too Costly 80 LEDs for a World-Wide Acceptance . The Pace of Innovation is Too Slow 60 Widely Affordable Solutions Can Be Found: 40 . Costs of Wind, Solar PV, Battery Costs, and LEDs Have Dropped Dramatically 20 . More Innovative Ideas Are on the Cusp of Realization, but Need a Boost to Market 0 . Private Investment is Poised to Help 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 . Global Mobilization of Innovative Talent Will Source: Adapted from DOE, “Revolution…Now: The Future Arrives for Five Clean Energy Technologies – 2015 Update,” http://www.energy.gov/eere/downloads/revolution-now- Speed Solutions and Mitigate CC Effects future-arrives-five-clean-energy-technologies-2015-update 5 Clean Energy Solutions – For Today and Tomorrow Mission Innovation Clean Energy Ministerial Future Innovations Deployment Now Science Policies Research Tech Best Practices Demos Development Capacity Building Analysis Prizes, Recognition Create Improve Reduce Raise Facilitate New Ideas Performance Cost Awareness Market Uptake Clean Energy Solutions – Examples Mission Innovation Clean Energy Ministerial Smart Buildings, Internet of Things Renewable Energy Atlas Advanced Manufacturing Electric Super-Efficient Appliances Vehicles Novel CCS Technologies ISO 50001 Energy Management Smart New Materials Solutions Center (1,000 Requests) Grids Revolutionary Aircraft 10 Billion LED Bulbs Create Improve Reduce Raise Facilitate New Ideas Performance Cost Awareness Market Uptake MISSION INNOVATION -- EXAMPLES Science Research Development Analysis New Materials Regional Clean Energy Sustainable Transportation Demand Response and . High Temperature Innovation Partnerships . SuperTrucks Dynamic Pricing . Tailored Mechanical Chemical Small Business Innovation . Vehicle Lightweighting Generation Flexibility Properties Partnership Program . Zero-Emission Vehicle Systems Microgrids . Tailored Electrical Magnetic Energy Technology Innovation . Optimized Multi-Modal Intercity & Distributed Generation Properties Accelerators Freight Transport Physical and Synthetic Inertia Heat Transfer & Fluid Dynamics ARPA-E . Very Low Aviation Emissions Electric Vehicles Combustion Materials 2 New National Network for Renewable Power Power Electronics Electro & Thermo Chemistry Manufacturing Innovation . Solar, SunShot Initiative Resiliency Photo & Radiation Chemistry Institutes for Clean Energy . Wind Cybersecurity Membranes & Separations Materials in Extreme Conditions . Water Polygeneration Condensed Matter Physics Initiative . Geothermal Hybrid Generation Nanosciences Materials Manufacturing for Grid . Biomass Combined Heat and Power Geosciences & Hydrology Applications Initiative . Fuel Cells Waste Heat Recovery Chemical Catalysis New Desalination Hub Energy Efficiency CO2 as a Working Fluid Bio-Catalysis Sensors & Instrumentation . High Impact Technology (HIT) Carbon Management Plant and Microbial Genomics Basic Clean Energy Research Catalysts NGCC Carbon Capture Pilot (Biotechnology) Zero-Emission Fossil Energy . LEDs Plant Bio-Based & Bio Inspired Direct CO2 Capture from . Building Management and 3 Post Combustion CO2 Processing Atmosphere Information Systems Capture Pilot Plants (10 MW Environmental Science Safe Long-Term Ocean Storage . Shading Attachments and Awnings Scale) Earth and Climate Science . Refrigeration Controls 2 New FEED Studies for Atmospheric Science . Commercial Fans and Blowers Advanced Combustion Advanced Scientific Computing . Smart Buildings Models and Simulations . Smart Meters Fusion and Plasma Sciences . Energy Managed Communities . Plasma Confinement Systems . Advanced Sensors and Controls . High Energy Density Physics Advanced Nuclear Energy 5 New Energy Frontier . Pebble Bed Research Centers (Total of 37) . Molten Chloride Fast Reactor . Gen IV Energy Systems . Advanced Nuclear Fuels . Small Modular Reactors 8 CLEAN ENERGY MINISTERIAL -- EXAMPLES Energy Efficiency & Demand Energy Supply Energy Systems & Integration Crosscutting Super-Efficient Equipment Solar and Wind 21st Century Power Partnership Clean Energy Education and and Appliance Deployment . Global Atlas for . Technical Assistance for Policy Empowerment . Appliance Energy Renewable Energy and Regulatory Implementation . Awards for Mid-Career Efficiency Policy Exchange . Renewable Energy . 21CPP Fellowship Program Leadership in Clean Energy Forum Learning Partnership . Distributed Generation Clean Energy Solutions Center . Efficiency Awards . Capacity Development Regulation Resource Library . Ask-an-Expert Service . Street Lighting Tool Needs Diagnostics for . Renewable Energy Roadmap . Online Training and . Efficiency Standards and Renewable Energy for India Resources Labeling (CaDRE) Global Lighting and Energy . Finance Solutions Center Global Lighting Challenge . Renewable Energy Access Partnership (10 Billion High Efficiency Auctions and Policies . Global LEAP Awards Bulbs) Guides . Off-grid Appliance Quality and Electric Vehicles Carbon Sequestration Efficiency Testing . EV City Casebooks Leadership Forum . Global Lighting Quality . Global EV Outlook Assurance Framework Energy Management . Mini-Grids Quality Assurance Working Group Framework . ISO 50001 Energy International Smart Grid Action Management Network . Energy Management . Smart Grids Best Practice Toolbox and Case Studies Handbook Cool Roofs and Pavements . Smart Grids Training Academy Toolkit . Smart Grids Integration Awards CHP/DHC Country Scorecards 9 Interim Estimates on 2014 Clean Energy R&D Investments by Country 2,000 1,000 *N/A = Not Available Million USD - N/A N/A Source: International Energy Agency for most IEA countries, and Bloomberg New Energy Finance survey data for others. IEA data include all forms of energy R&D and demonstrations, but exclude deployment expenditures and costs for overhead and program direction. Note: the estimate for the United States is USG-based data, but reshaped to be compliant with IEA reporting guidelines. 10 One Possible Global Funding Scenario for all MI Participating Countries $20B Average Growth Rate of 15% per Year Nominal $15B Doubling Baseline* = $25B over 5 years $10B Public Public Investment $5B Business as Usual 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 * Nominal baseline of $10 billion is a rough estimate, based on based on IEA Energy RD&D Expenditures and Survey Data from Bloomberg New Energy Finance for 20 MI countries. A better estimate will emerge, once MI countries report later in 2016. 11 Next Steps Each Country Must Define Its Own Program Scope and Doubling Plan: . Establish a “Mission Innovation” R&D Baseline and Base-Year . Declare Amount of its Doubling Plan and by When . Provide a Country-Narrative Describing R&D Investment Priorities Additionally, to the Extent Practicable: . Evidence Commitment by Announcing a First-Year Plan . Provide Transparency by Disclosing Composition of Baseline and Growth Establish Information Sharing Mechanisms Among Countries Identify R&D Needs, Conduct Analyses, and Launch Road-Mapping Explore Joint Research & Capacity Building Opportunities Agree on an International Platform for Sustained MI Operation First Ministerial Meeting Hosted by the U.S. on June 2, 2016 in San Francisco, CA 12 Private Sector Actions “We
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