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Business Conditions: October 1, 1926, Volume 9, Number 10

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Business Conditions: October 1, 1926, Volume 9, Number 10 B usiness Conditions Seventh R e se r v e FEDERAL D i s t r i c t MONTHLY REVIEW PUBLISHED BY THE Volume 9, No. 10 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF CHICAGO October 1, 1926 BUSINESS CONDITIONS IN THE UNITED STATES T N D U S T R IA L activity and distribution of commodities utilities were substantially larger. continued in large volume in August at a level higher Crop conditions improved in August, according to a than a year ago. The general level of wholesale prices statement by the Department of Agriculture. September receded further in August, reflecting price declines for forecasts of yields of corn, barley, hay, tobacco, and most agricultural commodities. fruit and vegetable crops were above those made in August, PRODUCTION—The index of production in basic in­ while expected yields of oats and spring wheat were dustries, which is adjusted for the usual seasonal variations, slightly less. declined slightly in August, but this decline is accounted for A cotton crop of 15,810,000 bales was indicated on the by the fact that there were five Sundays in August as basis of the condition of the crop at the middle of Septem­ against four in July. Textile mill activity and production ber. The crop, however, is later than last year, and gin- of steel ingots, zinc, and petroleum increased, while the nings up to September 16 amounted to only 2,511,000 bales, output of pig iron, lumber, coal, copper, cement, and sugar compared with 4,282,000 bales prior to September 16, 1925. was smaller than the month before. Automobile produc­ TRADE—Volume of wholesale trade and of sales at de­ tion increased considerably in August and was larger than partment stores increased in August, and retail sales were in any month since April. Factory employment and pay­ larger than a year ago. Stocks of dry goods and shoes rolls, after declining in July, increased in August, as is carried by wholesale firms were smaller at the end of Au­ usual at this season of the year. gust than last year, while those of groceries and hardware Building activity, as measured by contracts awarded in were larger. Inventories of department stores increased in thirty-seven states east of the Rocky Mountains, was in preparation for autumn trade, but this increase was less larger volume in August than in July or in any other pre­ than is usual at this season, and at the end of the month vious month with the exception of August, 1925. In east­ stocks were smaller than a year ago. ern and southeastern states the volume of building was Freight carloadings in August continued higher than in smaller in August than a year ago, while in the Middle the corresponding months of previous years, and for the West contracts awarded were larger. Contracts for resi­ weeks of August 28 and September 4 exceeded all previous dential structures were smaller than last year, while those weekly records. Loadings of grain continued large, and for industrial buildings and for public works and public shipments of merchandise in less-than-carload lots, mis- PRODUCTION IN BASIC INDUSTRIES WHOLESALE PRICES PER CENT 150 100 50 0 . I .1 i 1 l t i I i i i ............ 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 Index of 22 basic commodities, adjusted for seasonal variations Index of U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (1913=100, base (1919=100). Latest figure, August, 1926: 116. adopted by the Bureau). Latest figure, August, 1926: 149.2. Compiled September 27, 1926 Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis cellaneous commodities, ore and coke were considerably middle of August and the middle of September in loans of larger than in the corresponding period of previous years. member banks in leading cities. The banks’ holdings of PRICES—Wholesale commodity prices, according to the investments also increased, though there was a decrease in index of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, declined by over investments at banks in New York City, and total loans one per cent in August, reflecting largely price decreases and investments on September 15 were larger than at any for grains, live stock, and meat products. Prices of cloth­ previous time. ing materials, fuels, and metals increased between July and The volume of reserve bank credit increased by about August, while prices of cotton, wool, sugar, building mate­ $90,000,000 between August and September 22, partly in rials, and rubber showed little change. In the first half of response to seasonal demands for currency. Discounts for September prices of grains, cattle, sugar, bituminous coal, member banks rose in September to the highest figure for and coke advanced, while prices of raw cotton, silver, and the year, and acceptance holdings also increased, while bricks declined. United States securities declined by about $55,000,000. BANK CREDIT—Increased demand for bank credit in Money rates continued to rise in September. Rates on connection with the harvesting and marketing of crops and commercial paper advanced by one-fourth per cent to 4^2- autumn trade, together with an increase in loans on securi­ 4J4 per cent, and rates on security loans also averaged ties was reflected in a considerable growth between the higher than in August. FEDERAL RESERVE BANK CREDIT FACTORY EMPLOYMENT AND PAYROLL PER CENT P A Y R O L L ... y £ — ■ •' * * * v —* '"'-V __\ EMPLOYMENT Y* ■ i n i i i h i n 1922 m i 1924 1925 1926 Federal Reserve Board’s Indexes of factory employment and payroll (1919=100). Latest figures, August, 1926: Employment, 94.4; Payroll, 107.7. 1926: Total Reserve Bank Credit, 1,207 million; Discounts for Member Banks, 622 million; Acceptances, 263 million; U. S. Securities, 318 million. BUSINESS CONDITIONS IN THE SEVENTH RESERVE DISTRICT URRENT conditions in the Middle West present few August statistics covering financial operations show a unusual features, in general following the trends char­ decline from July in commercial paper sales, in the volume acteristicC of the season. Crop prospects are of especial of bankers’ acceptances executed, and in check payments, significance at this time. September 1 estimates for corn with a slight advance in savings deposits. in the Seventh district were higher than a month earlier, but the yield and quality depend upon weather conditions CREDIT CONDITIONS AND MONEY RATES during the maturing period. Rains have interfered with Credit conditions in the Seventh district are little changed the threshing of small grains, and the forecast for oat pro­ from those reported a month ago. Demand has duction has been reduced. The wheat crop turned out been well maintained, certain banks being called upon for well, and farmers are planning to sow a larger acreage this heavier requirements than last year, and a few smaller, but fall than last. Prospects are favorable for abundant fruit reports on the whole indicating about the same volume. crops provided frost does not come too early. Current rates in Chicago are as follows: Commercial paper Industry was fairly active during August, the aggregate 4J4 to 4^2 per cent, customers’ over-the-counter loans 424 volume of employment practically the same as the month to 5J4 per cent, and collateral loans 4j£ to 5 per cent. before, with payrolls higher following the usual vacation The average rate earned by ten of the larger banks in and inventory period decline. Iron and steel mills con­ Chicago during August was 4.86 per cent, approximately tinued to receive heavy specifications and make heavy ship­ the July rate, and compared with 4.77 per cent in the cor­ ments during August; production exceeded a year ago. responding month of 1925. In Detroit the prevailing rate Illinois coal output increased for the third consecutive on commercial loans during the week ending September month. Building operations are still on a high level, and 15 was unchanged at 4J£ to 6 per cent from the same period absorb a large amount of labor. in August. The average rate earned by six Detroit institu­ Merchandising reports for August indicate expansion over tions during August was 5.34 per cent, as against 5.30 per the preceding month and a year ago in sales by mail order cent in July, and 5.13 in August a year ago. houses and department stores, while comparisons for whole­ Total reserves of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chi­ sale trade vary. Automobile sales at retail were less than cago on September 8 reached $419,986,000, the peak point in July but above August, 1925; agricultural machinery in nearly two years, falling off, however, to $397,112,000 sales made gains in both comparisons. by September 22.: Total bills and securities on the fif- DigitizedPage for FRASER2 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis teenth aggregated $163,830,000, the highest level since 34.9 per cent higher than in the middle of August. The the close of June, but dropped to $158,718,000 the following transactions covered principally grain, packing-house prod­ week. On September 22, the volume of bills discounted ucts, tobacco, sugar, canned goods, pig iron, cotton, tur­ amounted to $70,934,000, having touched $73,604,000 on pentine, and oil. The supply of paper was reported small, August 25, but declining steadily thereafter to $53,538,000 and demand fair. Ninety-day maturities moved best, their on September 15. Federal Reserve notes in circulation offered rate advancing from 3-Hi at the beginning of the exceeded $200,000,000 on each reporting date during the period to 3£fj by September 15.
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