Jacobson and Delucchi (2009) Electricity Transport Heat/Cool 100% WWS All New Energy: 2030
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Energy Policy 39 (2011) 1154–1169 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Energy Policy journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol Providing all global energy with wind, water, and solar power, Part I: Technologies, energy resources, quantities and areas of infrastructure, and materials Mark Z. Jacobson a,n, Mark A. Delucchi b,1 a Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305-4020, USA b Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California at Davis, Davis, CA 95616, USA article info abstract Article history: Climate change, pollution, and energy insecurity are among the greatest problems of our time. Addressing Received 3 September 2010 them requires major changes in our energy infrastructure. Here, we analyze the feasibility of providing Accepted 22 November 2010 worldwide energy for all purposes (electric power, transportation, heating/cooling, etc.) from wind, Available online 30 December 2010 water, and sunlight (WWS). In Part I, we discuss WWS energy system characteristics, current and future Keywords: energy demand, availability of WWS resources, numbers of WWS devices, and area and material Wind power requirements. In Part II, we address variability, economics, and policy of WWS energy. We estimate that Solar power 3,800,000 5 MW wind turbines, 49,000 300 MW concentrated solar plants, 40,000 300 MW solar Water power PV power plants, 1.7 billion 3 kW rooftop PV systems, 5350 100 MW geothermal power plants, 270 new 1300 MW hydroelectric power plants, 720,000 0.75 MW wave devices, and 490,000 1 MW tidal turbines can power a 2030 WWS world that uses electricity and electrolytic hydrogen for all purposes. Such a WWS infrastructure reduces world power demand by 30% and requires only 0.41% and 0.59% more of the world’s land for footprint and spacing, respectively. We suggest producing all new energy with WWS by 2030 and replacing the pre-existing energy by 2050. Barriers to the plan are primarily social and political, not technological or economic. The energy cost in a WWS world should be similar to that today. & 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1. Introduction improving energy efficiency. Pacala and Socolow (2004) suggested a similar portfolio, but expanded it to include reductions in deforestation A solution to the problems of climate change, air pollution, water and conservation tillage and greater use of hydrogen in vehicles. pollution, and energy insecurity requires a large-scale conversion to More recently, Fthenakis et al. (2009) analyzed the technical, clean, perpetual, and reliable energy at low cost together with an geographical, and economic feasibility for solar energy to supply increase in energy efficiency. Over the past decade, a number of studies the energy needs of the U.S. and concluded (p. 397) that ‘‘it is clearly have proposed large-scale renewable energy plans. Jacobson and feasible to replace the present fossil fuel energy infrastructure in Masters (2001) suggested that the U.S. could satisfy its Kyoto Protocol the U.S. with solar power and other renewables, and reduce CO2 requirement for reducing carbon dioxide emissions by replacing 60% of emissions to a level commensurate with the most aggressive its coal generation with 214,000–236,000 wind turbines rated at climate-change goals’’. Jacobson (2009) evaluated several long- 1.5 MW (million watts). Also in 2001, Czisch (2006) suggested that a term energy systems according to environmental and other totally renewable electricity supply system, with intercontinental criteria, and found WWS systems to be superior to nuclear, transmission lines linking dispersed wind sites with hydropower fossil-fuel, and biofuel systems (see further discussion in Section 2). backup, could supply Europe, North Africa, and East Asia at total costs He proposed to address the hourly and seasonal variability of per kWh comparable with the costs of the current system. Hoffert et al. WWS power by interconnecting geographically disperse renew- (2002) suggested a portfolio of solutions for stabilizing atmospheric able energy sources to smooth out loads, using hydroelectric power CO2, including increasing the use of renewable energy and nuclear to fill in gaps in supply. He also proposed using battery-electric energy, decarbonizing fossil fuels and sequestering carbon, and vehicles (BEVs) together with utility controls of electricity dispatch to them through smart meters, and storing electricity in hydrogen or solar-thermal storage media. Cleetus et al. (2009) subsequently n Corresponding author. Tel.: +1 650 723 6836. presented a ‘‘blueprint’’ for a clean-energy economy to reduce E-mail addresses: [email protected] (M.Z. Jacobson), [email protected] (M.A. Delucchi). CO2-equivalent GHG emissions in the U.S. by 56% compared 1 Tel.: +1 916 989 5566. with the 2005 levels. That study featured an economy-wide CO2 0301-4215/$ - see front matter & 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2010.11.040 M.Z. Jacobson, M.A. Delucchi / Energy Policy 39 (2011) 1154–1169 1155 Table 1 Recent studies of rapid, large-scale development of renewable energy. Study Energy mix by sector Time frame Geographic scope This study and Jacobson and Delucchi (2009) Electricity transport heat/cool 100% WWS All new energy: 2030. World All energy: 2050 Alliance for Climate Protection (2009) Electricity transport 100% WWS+Bm 2020 U.S. Parsons-Brinckerhoff (2009) Electricity transport heat/cool 80% WWS+NCBmBf 2050 UK Price-Waterhouse-Coopers (2010) Electricity 100% WWS+Bm 2050 Europe & North Africa Beyond Zero Emissions (2010) Electricity transport heat/cool 100% WWS+Bm 2020 Australia European Climate Foundation (ECF) (2010) Electricity transport heat/cool 80% WWS+NCBm 2050 Europe European Renewable Energy Council (EREC) (April (2010) Electricity transport heat/cool 100% WWS+BmBf 2050 Europe WWS¼wind, water, solar power; FF¼fossil fuels; Bm¼biomass; Bf¼liquid biofuels; N¼nuclear; C¼coal-CCS. Cleetus et al. (2009) is not included only because its focus is mainly on efficiency and demand management, with only modest increases in renewable energy. cap-and-trade program and policies to increase energy efficiency matches demand, the economics of WWS generation and transmis- and the use of renewable energy in industry, buildings, electricity, sion, the economics of the use of WWS power in transportation, and and transportation. Sovacool and Watts (2009) suggested that a policy issues. Although we recognize that a comprehensive plan to completely renewable electricity sector for New Zealand and the address global environmental problems must also address other United States is feasible. sectors, including agriculture (Horrigan et al., 2002; Wall and Smit, In Jacobson and Delucchi (2009), we outlined a large-scale plan 2005) and forestry (Niles et al., 2002), we do not address those to power the world for all purposes with WWS (no biofuels, nuclear issues here. power, or coal with carbon capture). The study found that it was technically feasible to power the world with WWS by 2030 but such a conversion would almost certainly take longer due to the 2. Clean, low-risk, sustainable energy systems difficulty in implementing all necessary policies by then. However, we suggested, and this study reinforces, the concept that all new 2.1. Evaluation of long-term energy systems: why we choose WWS energy could be supplied by WWS by 2030 and all existing energy power could be converted to WWS by 2050. The analysis presented here is an extension of that work. Because climate change (particularly loss of the Arctic sea ice Table 1 compares and summarizes several other recent large- cap), air pollution, and energy insecurity are the current and scale plans. While all plans are ambitious, forward thinking, and growing problems, but it takes several decades for new technol- detailed, they differ from our plan, in that they are for limited world ogies to become fully adopted, we consider only options that have regions and none relies completely on WWS. However, some come been demonstrated in at least pilot projects and that can be scaled close in the electric power sector, relying on only small amounts of up as part of a global energy system without further major non-WWS energy in the form of biomass for electric power technology development. We avoid options that require substan- production. Those studies, however, address only electricity and/ tial further technological development and that will not be ready to or transport, but not heating/cooling. begin the scale-up process for several decades. Note that we select More well known to the public than the scientific studies, technologies based on the state of development of the technology perhaps, are the ‘‘Repower America’’ plan of former Vice-President only rather than whether industrial capacity is currently ramped and Nobel-Peace Prize winner Al Gore, and a similar proposal by up to produce the technologies on a massive scale or whether businessman T. Boone Pickens. Mr. Gore’s proposal calls for society is motivated to change to the technologies. In this paper and improvements in energy efficiency, expansion of renewable in Part II, we do consider the feasibility of implementing the chosen energy generation, modernization of the transmission grid, and the technologies based on estimated costs, necessary policies, and conversion of motor vehicles to electric power. The ultimate (and available materials as well as other factors. ambitious) goal is to provide America ‘‘with 100% clean electricity In order to ensure that our energy system remains clean even within 10 years,’’ which Mr. Gore proposes to achieve by increasing with large increases in population and economic activity in the long the use of wind and concentrated solar and improving energy run, we consider only those technologies that have essentially zero efficiency (Alliance for Climate Protection, 2009). In Gore’s plan, emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants per unit of output solar PV, geothermal, and biomass electricity would grow only over the whole ‘‘lifecycle’’ of the system.