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Colombia's Recent Foreign Policy Shift and Its Impact on The A New Awakening*: Colombia’s Recent Foreign Policy shift and its Impact on the Internal Conflict *Anaphora used by Santos in his inaugural speech as President on August 7th 2010. Author(s): Diana Carolina Puerto C. Tutor: Manuela Nilsson Examiner: Anders Nilsson Peace and Development Subject: Peace and Development Level and semester: Master Thesis, Spring 2011 School of Social Sciences Master Thesis - D level A New Awakening*: Colombia’s Recent Foreign Policy Shift and its Impact on the Internal Conflict * Un nuevo amanecer, anaphora used by Juan Manuel Santos in his inaugural speech as President of Colombia on August 7th 2010. Diana Carolina Puerto Castro 5th June 2011 Department of Peace and Development Studies Supervisor: Manuela Nilsson PhD 1 ABSTRACT Title: A New Awakening*: Colombia’s Recent Foreign Policy Shift and its Impact on the Internal Conflict. Author: Diana Carolina Puerto Castro Supervisor: Manuela Nilsson Subject: Peace and Development Abstract: Colombia’s biggest challenge is to resolve its half-century old armed conflict which began already to affect its neighbours. In this regard, Colombian foreign policy becomes crucial to respond with the internal and external challenges Colombia faces. Colombia has been historically aligned to the United States who has become one of the main destinations of Colombian exports as well as the leading sponsor in the fight against drugs and the guerrilla groups. However, the recent take over of President Juan Manuel Santos in August 2010 seems to have produced a shift in this regard. Santos has tried to increase Colombia’s interaction with other Latin American countries which has triggered several speculations about a move away from Washington, its main ally. Only some months have passed and it is already visible how the existent dynamics between Colombia and other international actors are taking a different shape. This work investigates the causes and possible impacts of this shift in Colombia’s foreign policy on the internal conflict. Supported by an analytical background on the significance of the external conditions surrounding a conflict, this research was conducted by favouring qualitative methods. Presidential interventions and newspaper articles were analysed by applying discourse analysis. The external perceptions were collected using structured interviews with professors, journalists, diplomats within the Andean region. The exploratory results suggest that a shift in the Colombian foreign policy indeed took place and was highly perceived by other international actors. It does not respond to a unique cause but to a set of different motives as for example the disappointment with US policies, economic pragmatism, the isolation of Colombia in South America, among others reasons. Furthermore, it is pointed out the way the shift could affect the conflict as well as feasible scenarios for the future. Keywords: Colombia, conflict, foreign policy, neighbours, Santos, peace. 2 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT In carrying out this research, there are several people who have contributed in making this study possible and I would like to take this opportunity to give them my gratitude. For a start, I would like to thank all the Latin American interviewees for their valuable inputs. Without their insights I would not have been able to accomplish this study. I would hence like to show my gratefulness to the University professors, Journalists, diplomats, analysts and the senator who participated in this study. For the time and effort they dedicated to me, Gracias! I am especially grateful to my Thesis supervisor Prof. Manuela Nilsson. I want to thank her for encouraged me to carry out this research in first place. During times of frustration or confusion she was exceptionally devoted to helped me to overcome some issues found while conducting this research. Her professionalism inspired to reach a higher level of personal development and certainly she became a role model for me. My last year in Sweden pursuing the Master program in Peace and Development work has been unforgettable and precious time for me and I would therefore like to show my appreciation to the Head of the Program, Prof. Anders Nilsson for allowing me to be part of the splendid prom 2010-2011. Last but no least, I would like to thank to all the people I became acquainted with in Sweden and who made my stay ‘up here’ more pleasant. For this reason this work is dedicated to all these people who become your family when you are away from home. I will not forget to thank my fantastic Indian roommate, Vivek K.V., for such interesting conversations, his care during times of sickness, his altruist attempts to cook Colombian food to pamper me, and of course, his friendship. 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................7 1.1 Problem and Research Questions............................................................................8 1.2. Method..................................................................................................................9 1.3 Limitations and Delimitations...............................................................................10 1.4 Thesis Disposition ................................................................................................10 2. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK..............................................................................12 Literature review ........................................................................................................12 Analytical frame.........................................................................................................13 3. METHODOLOGY ....................................................................................................16 3.1 Sources of Data and Interpretation........................................................................16 3.2 Discourse analysis for foreign policy ....................................................................17 3.3 Quality standard ...................................................................................................18 4. THE COLOMBIAN CONFLICT...............................................................................20 4.1 Causes ..................................................................................................................20 4.2 Actors and Interests ..............................................................................................22 4.3 Conception of the Conflict and Attempts for Solution...........................................25 4.4 Phases and Development of the conflict................................................................26 5. COLOMBIAN FOREIGN POLICY..........................................................................30 5.1 Foreign policy until 1998......................................................................................30 5.2 Foreign policy from 1998 to 2010.........................................................................32 6. COLOMBIA’S FOREIGN POLICY SHIFT ..............................................................43 6.1 Manifestation of the shift......................................................................................43 6.2 Neighbours’ reactions...........................................................................................48 7. POSSIBLE CAUSES.................................................................................................51 7.1 Disappointment with US policies..........................................................................51 7.2 Economic pragmatism ..........................................................................................52 4 7.3 Other causes .........................................................................................................55 8. IMPACT ON THE INTERNAL CONFLICT.............................................................58 8.1 Scenarios..............................................................................................................61 9. CONCLUSION..........................................................................................................65 REFERENCES ..............................................................................................................67 APPENDIX ...................................................................................................................75 5 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS U.S.- United States of America UN – United Nations UNDP – United Nations Development Program FARC – Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia ELN – Ejército de Liberación Nacional AUC - Autodefensas Unidas de Colombia M-19 – Movimiento 19 de Abril DMZ- Demilitarized zone UNASUR – Unión de Naciones Suramericanas APEC- Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation OECD – Organisation for Economic Co-operationn and Development CAN – Comunidad Andina de Naciones FLACSO – Facultad Latinoamericana de Ciencias Sociales IISS – International Institutes for Strategic Studies FTA – Free Trade Agreement EFTA - The European Free Trade Association FIP – Fundación Ideas para la Paz OAS – Organisation of American States 6 INTRODUCTION 1. INTRODUCTION Colombia is a middle-income country on the North-western South America. The country is bordered by Panama on the northwest, Venezuela and Brazil on the east, and Peru and Ecuador on the south. Like many developing countries, Colombia is in need of reducing poverty and inequality, to narrow the disparities among regions, to consolidate the development
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