INDIA-EU DIALOGUE ON MIGRATION AND MOBILITY
Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)
Rajat Kathuria, Director and CE [email protected]
26 September 2017 OVERVIEW oExploring India-EU complementarities oIndia-EU migration trends oLabour mobility oStudent mobility o Tourist flows oWay forward Exploring India-EU complementarities Prime workforce (25-49 years, in ‘000 and percent)
600,000 40
35 500,000 30 400,000 25
300,000 20
15 200,000 10 100,000 5
0 0 1950 1970 1990 2010 2015 2020 2030 2040 EU (with UK) EU (without UK) India EU (%, with UK) EU (%, without UK) India (%)
Source: World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision (medium variant), United Nations Population Division. Employment growth (%) in EU by sectors, 2015-2025
Mining & quarrying -16.68 Agriculture, forestry & fishing -15.86 Energy supply services -8.90 Water and waste treatment -6.78 Manufacturing -3.92 Public sector & defence -3.92 Transport & storage 0.46 Construction 0.90 Education 0.98 Wholesale & retail trade 4.07 Accommodation & food 5.52 Arts & recreation 7.21 Finance & insurance 7.63 Health & social care 7.83 ICT services 7.97 Administrative services 12.72 Professional services 16.30
Source: European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training (CEDEFOP). Skills shortages in EU
Occupations for which there are skill shortages o higher skill – ICT and STEM professionals, medical doctors, nurses, midwives, teachers o intermediate skill – cooks, welders and truck drivers
Reasons for shortage o Insufficient supply of graduates o Rapid technical advancements o Less enrollments to study, STEM with high entry requirements and high dropout rates o Low participation of women in STEM
Country-specific shortages o Healthcare Bulgaria, Hungary and Slovakia (due to emigration); Denmark, Croatia, Latvia and Austria (due to retention challenges) o Legal professionals Estonia and France o Financial analysts Ireland, UK, Hungary and Luxembourg
Source: CEDEFOP. Some Challenges o Movement of people is affected by lack of mutual recognition of qualifications and skills
India and EU have not been able to conclude Mutual Recognition Agreements (MRAs) of qualifications Gaps in implementation of EU’s Services Directive and Directive 2005/36/EC on recognition of professional qualifications o In 2005, EC developed a set of 11 common basic principles (CBPs) for mainstreaming integration measures o In 2011, a review of CBPs highlighted several challenges regarding integration of migrants
low levels of employment among migrants, especially migrant women rising levels of unemployment and high levels of over-qualification of migrants compared to the jobs they do gaps in educational attainment increasing risk of social exclusion of migrants public concerns with the lack of integration of migrants Policy engagement so far
• India-EU Common Agenda for Migration and Mobility (CAMM) endorsed at India-EU Summit (30 March 2016)
• Several bilateral and multilateral agreements (including trade, social security, labour mobility) have been signed between India and EU (and Member States) to facilitate mobility
• Under GATS, services can be traded internationally in four different ways o Mode 1: Cross-border supply (e.g. banking services transmitted via telecommunications or mail) o Mode 2: Consumption abroad (e.g. tourist or patient) o Mode 3: Commercial presence (e.g. domestic subsidiaries of foreign insurance companies or hotel chains) o Mode 4: Presence of natural persons (e.g. students, doctors, teachers, etc.) India-EU migration trends Migrant inflows from BRICS to EU 21 (as % of total)
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0 2000 2005 2010 2015 India China Brazil Russia South Africa
Note: 'Total migrant inflows' is representative of migration from outside the EU as well as migration from within the EU. EU (21) consists of Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Latvia, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom. Source: OECD Migration Statistics (Definition of ‘immigrants’ varies across OECD countries). Migration from India to EU and US, 2000-2015
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0 2000 2005 2010 2015 EU (21 - with UK) EU without UK US
Source: OECD. India-EU migration by selected countries, 2015
Migrant outflows from India to select EU MS Stock of Indian migrants in EU member states
Denmark Belgium
Poland Austria
France Ireland
Belgium Sweden
Spain Netherlands
Sweden Spain
Netherlands France
Italy Germany
Germany Italy
United Kingdom United Kingdom
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000
Source: OECD international migration database. Source: United Nations Population Division: The 2015 revision (latest available). Stock of migrants from EU MS in India, 2015
Portugal 156
France 1,142
Germany 2,147
United Kingdom 4,866
Source: United Nations Population Division: The 2015 revision. Residence permits (3 months and above) granted to Indian citizens in EU by various reasons
2016 53,178 30,983 55,757 55,558
2012 39,074 23,436 46,516 48,529
2008 33,075 34,562 62,032 24,389
Family Education Remunerated activities Others
Note: 'Others' category includes diplomats, consular officers treated as exempt from control; retired persons of independent means; all other passengers given limited leave to enter who are not included in any other category; non-asylum discretionary permissions. Source: Eurostat. Residence permits (3 months and above) granted to Indian citizens in EU including and excluding UK
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0 2008 2016 2008 2016 2008 2016 2008 2016 2008 2016 Total Family Education Remunerated activities Others European Union (28 countries) EU (Excluding UK)
Source: Eurostat. Labour Mobility Labour mobility trends
Permits granted to Indian citizens for Top 5 member states as of 2016 granting permits for remunerative activities in the EU (28) employment reasons 80,000 72,161 2016 70,000 62,032 60,000 54,866 55,757 2014
50,000 46,516 2012 40,000
30,000 2010
20,000 2008 10,000 -5,000 5,000 15,000 25,000 35,000 45,000 0 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 United Kingdom Germany Netherlands Sweden Denmark Source: Eurostat. Irregular Indian migrants in EU MS, 2016
Cyprus
Spain
Greece
Italy
Belgium
Portugal
Austria
France
Germany
United Kingdom
European Union (28 countries)
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 Source: Eurostat. Managing migration from third countries
• Approaches adopted by MS to manage migration from third countries (European Migration Network, 2013)
o Occupation lists where labour shortages exist Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Spain, United Kingdom
o Employers needs analysis Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Estonia, Germany, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Poland, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden
o Quotas and limits to restrict labor migration of third-country nationals Austria, Estonia, Hungary, Italy, Portugal, Slovenia, Norway, United Kingdom
• Bilateral and multilateral agreements (viz. social security agreements, labor mobility partnerships, trade agreements, etc.) promoting fair recruitment practices, equal treatment to migrant workers, access and portability of benefits for migrant workers Facilitating labor mobility – Bilateral agreements Area of cooperation Agreements Main objectives of the Current status agreement/collaboration Labour Mobility Labour Mobility and Partnership Agreement Promote orderly migration of workers from In force between India and Denmark India to meet the growing demand for skilled and trained workers in the Danish economy Prevent illegal migration and the smuggling of people for financial benefits
Social Security Social Security Agreements Social security benefits across jurisdictions In force Norway (2010), Denmark (2009), Luxembourg (2009), Netherlands (2009), Belgium (2006), French Republic (2008), Germany (2008), Hungary (2010), Czech Republic (2010), Sweden (2012), Finland (2012), Austria (2013)
Portugal (2013), Social security benefits across jurisdictions Not in force Germany (2011) Trade EU-India Broad-based Trade and Investment Enhance trade, investment and cooperation In negotiations, since Agreement (BTIA) by removing the existing barriers 2007 European Free Trade Area (EFTA) - India Free In negotiations trade agreement: Trade and Economic Partnership Agreement (TEPA) Identification and return of Swiss and Bilateral Technical Arrangement between Return of irregular migrants between the two September 2016 Indian Nationals India and Switzerland countries
Source: Ministry of External Affairs website, Government of India. Student Mobility Flow of tertiary level students from India to selected countries, 2014-15
120,000 50.0 45.0 100,000 40.0 35.0 80,000 30.0 60,000 25.0 20.0 40,000 15.0 10.0 20,000 5.0 0 0.0 United Australia UK New Canada UAE Germany Russian Ukraine Kyrgyzstan States Zealand Federation Number of Indian students abroad as % mobile Indian students abroad
Source: UNESCO. Top 5 EU MS granting education permits to Indians
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0 United Kingdom Germany Poland France Cyprus 2008 2016
Source: Eurostat. Factors affecting student mobility to EU
• Entry and admission o recognition of third country qualifications o linguistic and cultural barriers o payment of tuition fees o availability of scholarships o visa and immigration policies o imposition of caps on length of time to complete studies
• Employment o access to the labour market during study o participation in the labour market following completion of studies
• Bilateral agreements between India and the EU Member States Facilitating student mobility – Bilateral agreements Country MoU/Joint Declaration of Intent (JDI) Status UK Joint statement between the MHRD and Department of Business, Signed in New Delhi on November 13, Innovation and Skills 2014
MoU between MHRD and Department of business, innovation and skills, Signed in New Delhi and London on UK April 7 and March 18, 2015 A framework for the UK – India Education and Research Initiative (UKIERI) (2016-21)
Germany MoU between Ministry of Human Resource Development (MHRD) and Signed in Berlin on April 11, 2013 Federal Minsitry of Education and Research on Cooperation in the field of higher education
JDI between MHRD and the Federal Foreign Office regarding the Signed in New Delhi on October 5, Promotion of German as a Foreign Language in India and the Promotion 2015 of Modern Indian Languages m Germany
France Exchange Programme between India and France on cooperation in the Signed in New Delhi on February 15, field of education 2007
Source: Ministry of Human Resource Development website, Government of India. Tourist flows Tourist arrivals in India from select EU MS and US (in 000's), 2003 and 2015 2,000 35
1,800 30 1,600
1,400 25
1,200 20 1,000 15 800
600 10
400 5 200
0 0 United Germany France Italy Netherlands Spain Sweden Belgium Total (of 16 Kingdom MS) Arrivals in 2003 Arrivals in 2015 % of total arrivals in India in 2003 % of total arrivals in India in 2015
Source: India Tourism Statistics Tourists from China and India to Europe (in 000's), 2016
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0 Entire Europe Northern Europe Western Europe Southern Europe Central / Eastern Europe China India
Source: European Tourism: Trends and Prospects (Q4/2016). Way Forward
This presentation will be followed by a comprehensive report on ‘EU-India Cooperation on Migration and Mobility’, based on
oextensive literature review oinsights from key stakeholders oprogress made on ongoing agreements oinputs provided by relevant international organizations
Kindly share your inputs / comments / suggestions by writing to [email protected]. THANK YOU!