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Monty G. Marshall Ted Robert Gurr 2005 Monty G. Marshall Ted Robert Gurr CIDCM Center for International Development & Conflict Management About CIDCM Training and Education Development and Conflict Management The Center provides on-the-ground train- (CIDCM) is an interdisciplinary research ing for parties to specific conflicts, as well center at the University of Maryland. as programs that feature conflict resolu- CIDCM seeks to prevent and transform tion training for students and government conflict, to understand the interplay officials. The Partners in Conflict pro- between conflict and development, and to gram has provided training in citizens’ help societies create sustainable futures for diplomacy and conflict resolution in more themselves. Using the insights of than countries, and the ICONS Project researchers, practitioners, and policymak- creates interactive tools for teaching and ers, CIDCM devises effective tools and training on conflict management tech- culturally appropriate pathways to con- niques. CIDCM also offers an undergrad- structive change. uate Minor in International Development and Conflict Management. For more than twenty years, scholars and practitioners at the Center have sought Policy Analysis ways to understand and address conflicts Strategically located at the nexus of theory over security, identity, and distributive and practice, CIDCM seeks to foster a justice. CIDCM’s programs are based on conversation among scholars and policy the belief that “peace building and devel- makers, and to use global analyses as a opment-with-justice are two sides of the basis for concrete recommendations for same coin” (Edward Azar, CIDCM the policy community. In this regard, its founding director). CIDCM’s accom- biennial publication Peace and Conflict plished scholars, its expertise in data collec- reports major global and regional trends tion and analysis, and its direct involvement in societal conflict, development, and gov- in regional conflict management efforts ernance issues. The Minorities at Risk make the Center a unique resource for data provided the basis for much of the discovering enduring solutions to the statistical analysis included in the world’s most intractable conflicts. United Nations Development Programme’s Human Development Report: Cultural Research Data Collections Liberty in Today’s Diverse World, while the CIDCM collects, analyzes and links data Peace and Conflict data was featured relevant to the study of the dynamics of prominently in the UK Prime societal conflicts. The aim is to expand Minister’s Strategy Unit’s Investing in data capabilities to facilitate cross-discipli- Prevention. nary research among scholars and policy analysts concerned with aspects of societal In addition, two CIDCM endowed conflict, state failure, and minority rights. chairs, the Anwar Sadat Chair for Peace The Center hosts several major interna- and Development and the Baha’i Chair tional databases on societal conflict, for World Peace, seek to bridge the gap including Minorities at Risk, Polity, and between the academic and policy worlds International Crisis Behavior. and develop alternatives to violent conflict. CIDCM Department of Government and Politics, University of Maryland 0145 Tydings Hall Tel.: (301) 314-7703 E-mail: [email protected] College Park, MD 20742 Fax: (301) 314-9256 http://www.cidcm.umd.edu peace and confflict 2005 A Global Survey of Armed Conflicts, Self-Determination Movements, and Democracy Monty G. Marshall Ted Robert Gurr with contributions by Victor Asal, Barbara Harff, Deepa Khosla, and Amy Pate CIDCM Center for International Development & Conflict Management University of Maryland, College Park © Center for International Development and Conflict Management (CIDCM), University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA (Publication Date: May ) Report Design by AW Studio, [email protected] TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. Introduction (Gurr and Marshall) 1 2. Peace and Conflict Ledger (Marshall) 3 .: Peace-Building Capacities of States 3 .: The Peace and Conflict Ledger 8 3. Global Trends in Violent Conflict (Marshall) 11 . Global Trends in Violent Conflict, - 11 4. Global Trends in Democratization (Marshall) 16 .: Global Regimes by Type, - 16 5. Self-Determination Movements and Their Outcomes (Khosla) 21 .: Armed Conflicts for Self-Determination and Their Outcomes, - 25 .: Trends in Armed Conflicts for Self-Determination, - 26 6. The Decline of Ethnic Political Discrimination, - (Asal and Pate) 28 .: Global Trends in Political Discrimination, - 31 .: Global Trends in Economic Discrimination, - 32 .: Global Trends in Political Discrimination of Minorities, - 33 .: Regional Trends in Political Discrimination of Minorities, - 35 7. Focus on Political Instability in Africa (Marshall) 39 .: Africa: Regimes by Type, - 42 .: Africa: Trends in Violent Conflict, - 43 .: Periods of Stability and Instability in African Countries 46 .: Political Instability in Africa, - 47 .: State Formation Instability in Africa 49 .: Africa Instability Ledger 53 8. Assessing Risks of Genocide and Politicide (Harff) 57 .: Genocides and Politicides since 57 .: Countries Experiencing Episodes of Genocide or Politicide since 58 .: Risks of Genocide and Politicide in Countries with Political Crises in Early 61 9. Global Terrorism: An Overview and Analysis (Marshall) 62 .: Description of Collective Political Violence (CPV) Categories 64 .: Description of the Global Terrorism (TERROR) Indicator 65 .: Actor-Target Relationships in Global Terrorism, - 67 .: Trends in High Profile Terrorism, // - // 73 10. Conclusion (Marshall and Gurr) 74 11. Appendix .: Major Armed Conflicts, Early 77 .: Armed Self-Determination Conflicts and Their Outcomes, - 84 .: Other Self-Determination Conflicts 90 .: Model Parameters and Data Sources 92 1. INTRODUCTION T ’ to multiethnic democracy dominate contemporary headlines. A large-scale genocide began in Darfur shortly after the publication of the edition of Peace and Conflict and international responses have thus far been ineffective. Civil wars are devastating once-stable countries such as Nepal and Ivory Coast. Little surprise, then, that most observers are convinced our world has become less secure since publication of the first edition of Peace and Conflict in , a report that documented a post-Cold War ebb in armed conflicts and traced the ascendancy of democratic regimes. Despite the prevailing sense of global inse- curity, the positive trends traced in previous editions of this report have continued into early . • The decline in the global magnitude of armed conflict, following a peak in the early s, has persisted and few of the many societal wars contained in the last decade have resumed. Major societal wars are down from twelve at the end of to eight in early . Despite the pre- • Most democratic regimes established during the s and s have endured despite political and economic crises. Popular forces have mobilized in many coun- vailing sense of tries, such as Bolivia, Georgia, Philippines, and Ukraine, to promote democratic principles, hold leaders accountable, and thwart the subversion of democratization. global insecurity, In the Middle East, the region most resistant to democratization, tutelary democra- the positive cies in Afghanistan and Iraq have gained support and small steps have been taken toward democratic reform in other Arab autocracies. On the down side, movement trends traced in toward reform in Iran suffered a serious setback. previous editions • Ethnonational wars for independence, which were the main threat to civil peace and regional security in the s, have continued to decline to their lowest level since of this report . Deepa Khosla reports that, from to , thirteen major self-determina- have continued tion conflicts were settled or contained, offset by a half-dozen new or renewed cam- paigns, the most deadly of which are in Darfur (where a new rebellion began in early into early . ) and Indonesia’s Aceh province (where fighting resumed in after the fail- ure of internationally-brokered negotiations). • Repression and political discrimination against ethnic minorities, surveyed for the first time in this report by Victor Asal and Amy Pate, have declined significantly, coinciding with the dramatic decline in autocratic regimes since the late s. Since 1950, the number of minorities benefiting from policies aimed at remedying past political discrimination has increased five-fold. These trends are linked to both democratization and containment of separatist wars. Most new democracies have recognized minority rights; almost all ethnonational war settlements give former rebels greater political rights and opportunities. These positive trends are no warrant for unqualified optimism about the future of world peace. The gains documented here are the result of persistent and coordinated efforts at peace-building by civil society organizations, national leaders, non-governmental organi- zations, and international bodies. But there is no certainty that strategies which worked in the past are sufficient to deal with emerging challenges, especially those due to the glob- alization of conflict processes. Nor can we continue to count on the resources and polit- ical will needed to sustain the trends. International cooperation is threatened by growing fractures in the world community. These are some of the challenges, old and new. 1 • The Peace and Conflict ledger gives red flags to out of countries sur- veyed, compared with countries in our report. They include African countries plus others such as Armenia,
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