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Why Do Men Not Rebel? Explaining Rebellion and the Absence Thereof Among the Oromo People in Ethiopia

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Why Do Men Not Rebel? Explaining Rebellion and the Absence Thereof Among the Oromo People in Ethiopia Why Do Men Not Rebel? Explaining rebellion and the absence thereof among the Oromo people in Ethiopia Marcus Movitz Department of Government, Uppsala University The Oromo people is the big “ elephant in the room that no one wants to talk about - Professor John Markakis interviewed on ESAT television in Mars 2012” ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to give my sincere gratitude to my supervisor Christofer Berglund, who has been extremely generous with his time and provided me with many helpful comments. Also, the writing of this paper was stimulated through my formal and informal contacts with both governmental and non-governmental agencies during my time in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. I am gratefully beholden to all those who offered me their time. ABSTRACT The objective of this thesis is to help explain why the Oromo people do not rebel against the current government in Ethiopia as they rebelled and ousted the Derg in 1991. The theory deployed, which seems to be of particular relevance when seeking an answer to absence of rebellion, is the Why Men Rebel model by Ted Gurr (1970; 2000). The findings indicate that seven out of 16 variables presented in the theory, have changed in their variety of presence. Six variables have changed in variety to be dependent, a lesser risk to rebellion, and one to be dependent, a greater risk of rebellion in 2013 compared to in 1991. Altogether, Gurr’s theory on Why Men Rebel helps to explain why the Oromo people do not rebel in Ethiopia, and it also seems to be a suitable use, not only for quantitative studies but for in-depth qualitative research as well. ABBREVIATIONS ANDM Amhara National Democratic Movement ELF Eritrean Liberation Front EPDM Ethiopian People’s Democratic Movement EPLF Eritrean People’s Liberation Front EPRDF Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front OLF Oromo Liberation Front ONLF Ogaden National Liberation Front SEPDC Southern Ethiopian People’s Democratic Coalition SNNP Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples’ Region TGE Transnational Government of Ethiopia TPLF Tigray Peoples Liberation Front UDJ Unity for Democra cy and Justice Party 1 1 Regional map over Ethiopia. Boundaries are unofficial and approximate. Available at www.mapsof.se CONTENT CHAPTER 1 – SETTING THE STAGE Introduction .................................................................................................................... 1 Research Purpose and Research Question ..................................................................... 3 The Proceeding of the Study .......................................................................................... 3 The Historical Context of the Oromo ............................................................................ 4 CHAPTER 2 – THE CASE STUDY METHOD The Comparative Case Study Design ............................................................................ 8 Case Selection ................................................................................................................ 8 Case Study Method ...................................................................................................... 10 Reporting Uncertainty .................................................................................................. 11 Material ........................................................................................................................ 13 CHAPTER 3 – WHY MEN REBEL Explaining Rebellion ................................................................................................... 14 Ted Gurr on Why Men Rebel ...................................................................................... 16 Theoretical Limitations ................................................................................................ 16 Theoretical Definitions ................................................................................................ 18 Key Variables Explaining Ethnopolitical Rebellion .................................................... 19 Domestic Factors Explaining Ethnopolitical rebellion ................................................ 24 External Factors Explaining Ethnopolitical Rebellion ................................................ 27 Summary ...................................................................................................................... 29 CHAPTER 4 – WHY DO MEN NOT REBEL Key Variables Present In Both 1991 and in 2013 ........................................................ 30 Changes In Key Variables Between 1991 and 2013 .................................................... 38 Summary ...................................................................................................................... 42 Domestic Factors Present In Both 1991 and 2013 ....................................................... 44 Changes In Domestic Factors Between 1991 and 2013............................................... 45 Summary ...................................................................................................................... 48 External Factors Present In Both 1991 and 2013......................................................... 49 Changes In External Factors Between 1991 and 2013 ................................................ 50 Summary ...................................................................................................................... 52 CHAPTER 5 - CONCLUSIONS Explaining The Case .................................................................................................... 54 The Future Of The Oromo People In Ethiopia ............................................................ 58 Concluding Remarks On The Theory .......................................................................... 59 BIBLIOGRAPHY Books, articles, reports and media ............................................................................... 60 Interviews ..................................................................................................................... 63 CHAPTER 1 – SETTING THE STAGE Introduction The region of Oromiya is arguably the most important as well as the most fragile part of the contemporary Horn of Africa. The Oromo people are the most numerous ethnic group not only in Ethiopia, but also in the wider Horn. Oromo nationalism is one of the most sensitive issues of contemporary socio-political development in the country. There is no definite census, but it has been suggested that the Oromo people constitute 45 percent of Ethiopia’s total population of approximately 90 million. Also, the Oromo people are usually referred to as ‘the big elephant in the room,’ as they not only constitute the numerical plurality, but are also territorially concentrated in the region of Oromiya (Markakis, 2010, pp.45-48). Regardless of being the demographic plurality in Ethiopia, the Oromo people are still a political minority. They are underrepresented in politics, subject to oppression, and forced into a process of assimilation and acculturation. This illustrates one of the paradoxes of socio-political development in Ethiopia where ethnicity is strongly politicised (Záho řík, 2014 pp.34-36). This suggests that the Oromo people would be prone to rebel against the government, but the continuous oppression of the current Ethiopian regime only seems to conjure minor protests and demonstrations. This is interesting, and brings to mind Ted Gurr’s classic from 1970, “Why Men Rebel”: why do not the Oromo people rebel against the government in Ethiopia, because as we have seen before, they rebelled against the Derg 2 regime in 1991? According to Gurr & Moore (1997, p.1082) and followed up by Weede & Muller (1998) rebellion is “a concerted campaign of violent action used by organisations claiming to represent an ethnic group to make claims against the state.” Essentially, as Weede & Muller argue, the number of those engaging in a demonstration or protest needs to be in proportion to that ethnic group´s total number before it can be categorised as a rebellion. Creating turmoil during a demonstration can thus not be called a rebellion if the number of demonstrators is only two—regardless of whether or not they claim to represent the entirety of an ethnic group (1998, p.44). Rebellion is 2 The Derg translates to committee or council, an abbreviation of Coordinating Committee of the Armed Forces 1 instead the activity of organising thousands of members—a demonstration, a large- scale protest—fighting for a common cause (Gurr & Moore, 1997, p.1082). In line with this definition one can affirm that there has only been one rebellion in Ethiopia since its last emperor, Haile Selassie, was ousted. This is a shift from the socialist regime to a feudal Ethiopia in 1991. At this time, the ethnicity of the Oromo in the south and the ethnicity of the Tigray in the north are the best-known examples of the ‘crystallisation’ of rebellion against the “Derg” (Záho řík, 2013, pp.54-55). As of today, the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) is the only existing ethno- political movement to have rebelled against the Derg, but its initial objective of self- determination expressed in the establishment of an independent state of Oromiya, went unfulfilled. This is curious, because the Ethiopian constitution guarantees the right to self-determination up to and including secession for all ethnic groups. Instead, by virtue of being the largest ethno-political group not only in Ethiopia but also in the wider Horn, the Oromo are perceived as a threat to Tigrean Ethiopian Peoples Revolutionary Democratic
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