Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis for Tyler, Texas
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COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS Tyler, Texas U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Office of Policy Development and Research As of July 1, 2019 Share on: Tyler, Texas Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis as of July 1, 2019 Executive Summary 2 Executive Summary Housing Market Area Description The Tyler Housing Market Area (HMA) is coterminous with the Tyler, TX Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) and is defined as Smith County, Texas. Approximately 100 miles east of the city of Dallas, Texas, the Tyler HMA is the economic hub for northeastern Texas, with people from surrounding counties commuting to the city of Tyler for health care, higher education, and retail shopping. The current HMA population is estimated at 233,100. Tools and Resources Find interim updates for this metropolitan area, and select geographies nationally, at PD&R’s Market-at-a-Glance tool. Additional data for the HMA can be found in this report’s supplemental tables. For information on HUD-supported activity in this area, see the Community Assessment Reporting Tool. Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis Tyler, Texas U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Office of Policy Development and Research Tyler, Texas Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis as of July 1, 2019 Executive Summary 3 Market Qualifiers Economy Sales Market Rental Market Strong: Nonfarm payrolls increased Balanced: Although total home sales Balanced: The ratio of renter 1.7 percent during the 12 months are down slightly, new home sales households to owner households ending June 2019. have been increasing since 2018. has been increasing since 2000. Economic conditions in the Tyler HMA have been The sales housing market in the Tyler HMA is The overall rental market in the Tyler HMA is strengthening since 2010 and are currently strong. currently balanced, with an estimated 1.3-percent balanced, with the current rental vacancy rate During the 12 months ending June 2019, nonfarm vacancy rate, down from 2.1 percent in April 2010. estimated at 8.5 percent, down from 10.6 percent payrolls increased by 1,800 jobs, or 1.7 percent, to The total number of home sales during the 12 in 2010. The total number of renter households 106,900 jobs, compared with a 1.5-percent increase months ending June 2019 was 4,725, down by 70 has increased more than 14 percent since April the previous year. Job growth during the 12 months from the previous 12 months (Metrostudy, A Hanley 2010, primarily due to increased net in-migration to ending June 2019 was distributed among 6 of the Wood company, with adjustments by the analyst). the HMA as employment opportunities expanded. 11 nonfarm payroll sectors. The unemployment rate During the same time period, the average home During the forecast period, demand is expected averaged 3.5 percent during the 12 months ending sales price declined 1 percent, to $222,100. Demand for 750 new rental units. The 65 units under June 2019, down from 3.8 percent a year earlier. is expected for 2,450 new homes during the construction and an estimated 35 units in planning Jobs are expected to increase an average of 1.6 forecast period. The estimated 230 homes currently will satisfy a portion of the demand. percent a year during the 3-year forecast period. under construction will satisfy part of the demand. TABLE OF CONTENTS Economic Conditions 4 3-Year Housing Demand Forecast Population and Households 8 Sales Units Rental Units Total Demand 2,450 750 Home Sales Market Conditions 10 Tyler HMA Under Construction 230 65 Rental Market Conditions 13 Notes: Total demand represents estimated production necessary to achieve a balanced market at the end of the forecast period and includes an Terminology Definitions and Notes 15 analysis of non-permitted construction. Units under construction as of July 1, 2019. The forecast period is July 1, 2019, to July 1, 2022. Source: Estimates by the analyst Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis Tyler, Texas U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Office of Policy Development and Research Tyler, Texas Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis as of July 1, 2019 Economic Conditions 4 Economic Conditions Table 1. Major Employers in the Tyler HMA Name of Employer Nonfarm Payroll Number of Largest sector: Education and Health Services Sector Employees UT Health East Texas Education & Health Services 4,439 Nonfarm payrolls in the Tyler HMA have increased by 11,800 jobs, CHRISTUS Trinity Mother Frances Health System Education & Health Services 4,095 or 11 percent, since 2010. Brookshire Grocery Company Wholesale & Retail Trade 1,620 The Trane Company Manufacturing 1,331 Primary Local Economic Factors The University of Texas at Tyler Government 1,440 Before the discovery of the East Texas oilfield in the 1930s, the economy of Walmart Inc. Wholesale & Retail Trade 1,241 the Tyler HMA was steeped in agriculture, dating back to before the Civil War. Altice USA, Inc. Transportation & Utilities 1,150 The discovery of oil was the catalyst that allowed the economy to expand into The University of Texas Health Science Center at Tyler Government 1,108 manufacturing and provided some relief from the Great Depression. Despite Sanderson Farms, Inc. Manufacturing 1,000 maintaining agricultural roots and being known as the Rose Capital of the United Tyler Junior College Government 967 States—rose growers in the HMA supply more than 50 percent of all rose bushes Note: Excludes local school districts. Source: Tyler Economic Development Council, Community Profile 2018 to nurseries across the country—the HMA is now a regional center for consumer services and retail shopping. Since 2016, mergers and acquisitions of three major medical service employers in the HMA (CHRISTUS Trinity Mother Frances Table 2. Nonfarm Payroll Jobs (1,000s) in the Tyler HMA, by Sector 12 Months 12 Months Health System, UT Health East Texas, and Baylor Scott & White Texas Spine & Absolute Percentage Ending Ending Change Change Joint Hospital) have contributed to growth in the education and health services June 2018 June 2019 sector. The HMA is home to three institutions of higher learning: Tyler Junior Total Nonfarm Payroll Jobs 105.1 106.9 1.8 1.7 College, the University of Texas at Tyler (UT Tyler), and Texas College. Goods-Producing Sectors 11.5 12.1 0.5 4.7 The two largest schools, Tyler Junior College and UT Tyler, work together to Mining, Logging, & Construction 6.2 6.7 0.5 8.0 develop and offer accredited degree programs that serve employment needs Manufacturing 5.3 5.3 0.0 0.0 in the HMA. Trade is the second largest sector in the HMA, with Brookshire Service-Providing Sectors 93.6 94.8 1.3 1.4 Grocery Company and Walmart Inc. employing 1,620 and 1,241 people, Wholesale & Retail Trade 18.2 18.4 0.3 1.4 respectively (Table 1). The Tyler HMA is a retail destination for surrounding Transportation & Utilities 4.6 4.9 0.3 7.0 counties, and the retail trade subsector represents 12 percent of total nonfarm Information 1.6 1.5 -0.1 -4.8 payrolls. The Village at Cumberland Park is a 700,000-square-foot, outdoor Financial Activities 4.3 4.3 0.0 0.0 retail mall that opened in 2018 in a major retail shopping corridor of the HMA. Professional & Business Services 10.6 11.0 0.4 3.7 This corridor is home to another shopping mall—Broadway Square Mall—and Education & Health Services 24.2 24.5 0.3 1.3 six other shopping centers. Leisure & Hospitality 11.5 11.7 0.2 1.4 Other Services 4.1 4.1 0.0 0.0 Current Conditions—Nonfarm payrolls Government 14.5 14.5 0.0 0.0 During the 12 months ending June 2019, nonfarm payrolls increased by 1,800 Notes: Based on 12-month averages through June 2018 and June 2019. Numbers may not add to totals due to rounding. Data are in thousands. jobs, or 1.7 percent (Table 2), compared with an increase of 1,500 jobs, or 1.5 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis Tyler, Texas U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Office of Policy Development and Research Tyler, Texas Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis as of July 1, 2019 Economic Conditions 5 percent, during the previous 12 months. Job gains were greatest in the mining, Nonfarm Payroll Trends—Overview logging, and construction sector and the professional and business services Since 2000, nonfarm payrolls decreased only once in 18 years (U.S. Bureau of Labor sector, which increased by 500 and 400 jobs, or 8.0 and 3.7 percent, respectively. Statistics). From 2001 through 2008, nonfarm payrolls increased by an average One sector and two subsectors recorded job losses during the 12 months ending of 1,400 jobs, or 1.5 percent, annually, to 97,700, mainly due to strong gains in the June 2019. The information sector and the state government and retail trade education and health services sector, which increased every year. The only year subsectors lost 100 jobs each, or 4.8, 1.7, and 1.0 percent, respectively. when job losses occurred was 2009; those losses were caused by a decline in the goods-producing sectors, with the majority of the losses in the manufacturing Current Conditions—Unemployment sector, which decreased by 1,900 jobs, or 21.6 percent, from the previous year. The unemployment rate averaged 3.5 percent during the 12 months ending From 2010 through 2013, nonfarm payrolls increased annually by an average of June 2019, down from 3.8 percent a year earlier. For comparison, the national 700 jobs, or 0.7 percent, to 97,700 jobs, the same number of nonfarm payrolls as in unemployment rate declined from 4.1 to 3.8 percent during the same period 2008.