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Everything You Needed to Know About LNG … but Were Afraid to Ask

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Everything You Needed to Know About LNG … but Were Afraid to Ask Everything you needed to know about LNG … but were afraid to ask. – Part I James Ashworth Lead Consultant TRI-ZEN International Pte Ltd, Singapore Glasgow Technology and Innovation Centre (TIC). , 14-17 September 2015 Glasgow 2015 2 Glasgow – Global Capital of Irreverence www.tri-zen.com 3 Thailand LAND OF SMILES AND OPPORTUNITIES 4 Thailand A land where everybody is an expert in Stress Mechanics 5 Thailand A land where you can be run over by a shop. 6 Thailand A world leader in space technology LNG Bunkering Mediterranean Summit 8 Workshop Early Gas Carriers ss “Methane Princess” ss “Geomitra” Brunei, Lumut LNG Liquefaction Plant loading arm LNG Fuelled Shipping Outlook Glasgow 2015 11 Headlines LNG will become the dominant marine fuel globally by 2030 This will double LNG demand from ~300m mt to ~600m mt Only 20% of shipping can be converted to LNG 80% of shipping (1 bn dwt) needs to be scrapped and replaced Market drivers will prevail This will fill global shipyard capacity, create jobs and stimulate economic development Exhaust Gas Treatment solutions make sense in some cases, but are not a sustainable solution The global LNG Supply Chain needs to diversify Globally The USA is set to become the world’s biggest energy exporter by 2020 Saudi Arabia is set to become a net energy importer by 2030 Glasgow 2015 12 Global Outlook Global Outlook Economic Oil Market Gas Market Gas as LNG Current Issues www.tri-zen.com 13 Global Outlook Economic Outlook Uneven global recovery continues, and the growth forecast for the world economy has slowed to 3.3% for 2014. The global growth projection for 2015 is 3.8% pa (per annum) Downside risks are increasing. Short term risks include a worsening of geopolitical tensions and increased volatility compression in financial markets. Medium-term risks include stagnation, low potential growth in advanced economies and a decline in potential growth in emerging markets. While the US is flourishing, Europe remains stagnant, and China’s growth could struggle to maintain 5% pa in coming years In many economies, an increase in public infrastructure investment could provide support to demand in the short term and help boost potential output in the medium term In emerging markets, the scope for macroeconomic policies to support growth varies across countries and regions In advanced economies as well as emerging market and developing economies, there is a general, urgent need for structural reforms to strengthen growth potential or make growth more sustainable Source: IMF www.tri-zen.com 14 Global Outlook GDP Growth Outlook China’s growth is steadily slowing, reflecting in Global GDP part the softening demand for its exports to Europe and other OECD countries. The US is 10,00% growing strongly, helped by its lower energy costs from unconventional oil and gas 9,00% production 8,00% Global infrastructure spending will rise from US$4 trillion in 2012 to US$9 trillion in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.4% or 7,00% about double the world’s GDP growth 6,00% 60% of the spending will be in Asia Pacific, driven mainly by Asian emerging markets 5,00% China, India and Indonesia establishing vital power, water and transportation infrastructure 4,00% 3,00% 2,00% Source: World Bank, Singapore Statistics 1,00% 0,00% 2010-2013 2014 2015 China Singapore World www.tri-zen.com Confidential 15 The Oil Price has never been stable 16 Global Outlook Oil Market Outlook – Pricing The price of oil is determined partly by supply and demand and partly by expectation. Demand for energy/oil is closely related to economic activity. Supply can be impacted by geopolitical upsets and by weather etc. The oil price has fallen by more than 50% since June 2014, when it was US$115 a barrel. It is now around US$50 after five years of relative stability, as the supply surplus grew. The OPEC meeting on November 27th failed to reach agreement on production curbs and the oil price collapsed. OPEC controls nearly 40% of the world supply. Hardest hit are oil-exporting countries such as Russia, where the rouble has also collapsed, Iran and Venezuela – countries where oil export income is a large contributor to GDP and ‘balance of payments’ OPEC’s moves shape expectations and, if it curbs supply sharply, it can send prices spiking. Saudi Arabia produces nearly 10m barrels a day—a third of the OPEC total If producers believe the price is staying high, they invest which, after a time lag, boosts supply. Similarly, low oil prices lead to less investment and a tightening of supply. Investment is already being cut back, which will inevitably contribute to a tightening of future supply www.tri-zen.com 17 Global Outlook Oil Market Outlook – Supply & Demand Demand growth is currently suppressed because of weak economic activity, increased efficiencies in energy use, and a growing switch away from oil to other fuels, particularly gas Turmoil in Iraq and Libya—two big oil producers with nearly 4 million barrels a day combined—has not affected their output. The market is less concerned about geopolitical risk threatening supply The US has become the world’s largest oil producer. Though it does not export crude oil, it now imports less, creating more spare supply – due to ‘shale oil’ production Saudi and other Gulf countries have chosen to maintain their own market share. Production could be cut, but benefits would be needed most by Iran and Russia, two countries most impacted. Saudi Arabia has $900 billion in reserves and its oil costs little to produce Asia continues to drive global demand growth but also continues to be dependent on imports, with about 33% of the global oil demand and yet producing only about 10% of the global crude www.tri-zen.com Confidential 18 Global Outlook Global Oil Demand Growth Oil Demand - Projection 120 Global oil demand is expected to reach 100 mbd by 2025, and 110 mbd by 2035, reflecting 100 year-on-year growth of 0.8% US consumption is expected to stay relatively constant at 19 mbd 80 China consumption is expected to increase dramatically from 11 mbd in 2014 to 19 mbd in 60 2035, reflecting a year-on-year growth of mbd about 2.5% from 2014 to 2035 Note that EIA (US) projects 2035 oil demand to 40 be 110+ mbd, while IEA (Int’l/Paris) projects more modest growth closer to 100 mbd in 2035. The largest influencing factor on demand 20 being the price of oil 0 2014 2025 2035 US China Rest of World Source: EIA www.tri-zen.com 20 Oil & Gas Reserves LNG Bunkering Mediterranean Summit 21 Workshop Global Outlook Oil Price Outlook & Impact Oil Price - Historic 160 The main impact is on the riskiest and most vulnerable parts of the oil industry. These include: 140 120 US shale producers which have borrowed heavily on the expectation of continuing high prices 100 International oil companies with high-cost projects involving drilling in deep water or in the Arctic, or dealing with maturing and increasingly expensive fields 80 such as the North Sea. USD USD / bbl Countries which depend on a high oil price – eg: Russia 60 (which is already hit by Western sanctions following its intervention in Ukraine) and Iran (which is funding the 40 Assad govt in Syria). Lower cost oil will spur global growth and hence oil 20 consumption The cycle will continue, the oil price will recover but 0 will unlikely break highs of $150 per bbl, as this high price has been tested and shown to destabilise ott-00 ott-09 ott-03 ott-06 ott-12 lug-01 lug-04 lug-07 lug-10 lug-13 apr-02 apr-05 apr-08 apr-11 apr-14 gen-03 gen-06 gen-09 gen-12 gen-00 economies. Tolerance for such a price is not there…..yet WTI Brent www.tri-zen.com 23 Global Outlook Oil Production Costs Averages Source: IEA www.tri-zen.com 24 Global Outlook Oil Price Needed to be Fiscally Break-even (USD/bbl) Kuwait Qatar UAE Venezuela Algeria Libya Nigeria Iraq Saudi Arabia Iran Russia 54.0 60.0 77.3 Source: IMF / Deutsche Bank 117.5 130.5 184.1 122.7 100.6 106.0 130.7 98.0 www.tri-zen.com 25 Global Outlook The Future is Gas Sufficient gas resources exist for long- term sustainable economic development, boosted by the potential of unconventional gas. A growing proportion of the newly-proven resources take the form of “unconventional” gas or accumulations of gas which cannot be extracted by “conventional” technologies. Based on current demand and reported estimates of global gas resources. Source: IEA and ExxonMobil Energy Outlook - 2013 www.tri-zen.com 27 Global Outlook Global Gas Demand Growth Global Gas Demand - Projection 6000 Gas demand is expected to grow year- on-year at 1.9%, more than double the 5000 rate of oil demand growth The rise in the consumption of natural gas will be most marked in China and 4000 India US consumption is expected to stay 3000 fairly constant at around 800 bcm, as a bcm mature economy constantly improving energy efficiencies 2000 China consumption is expected to increase to from 160 bcm in 2015 to more than 600 bcm in 2035, as its 1000 developing economy continues to grow and it takes steps to increase the consumption of cleaner burning gas to 0 replace coal and address environmental 2015 2025 2035 concerns US China Rest of World Source: EIA / T-Z Database www.tri-zen.com 28 Global Outlook Gas Market Pricing Europe - Crude v natural gas Gas prices track oil prices, due in part to related heating values (though gas always 25 costs less) and in part to long term 20 contracts which have the oil price embedded in the formulae 15 mmBTU Of the main gas markers shown, US Henry 10 USD USD / Hub and UK NBP (National balancing Point) 5 are driven by market supply & demand.
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