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The Asian Quest for LNG in a Globalising Market

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The Asian Quest for LNG in a Globalising Market Secure Sustainable Together PARTNER COUNTRY SERIES The Asian Quest for LNG in a Globalising Market Secure Sustainable Together PARTNER COUNTRY SERIES The Asian Quest for LNG in a Globalising Market Anne-Sophie CORBEAU, Anne BRAAKSMA, Farid HUSSIN, Yayoi YAGOTO and Takuro YAMAMOTO INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY The International Energy Agency (IEA), an autonomous agency, was established in November 1974. Its primary mandate was – and is – two-fold: to promote energy security amongst its member countries through collective response to physical disruptions in oil supply, and provide authoritative research and analysis on ways to ensure reliable, affordable and clean energy for its 29 member countries and beyond. The IEA carries out a comprehensive programme of energy co-operation among its member countries, each of which is obliged to hold oil stocks equivalent to 90 days of its net imports. The Agency’s aims include the following objectives: n Secure member countries’ access to reliable and ample supplies of all forms of energy; in particular, through maintaining effective emergency response capabilities in case of oil supply disruptions. n Promote sustainable energy policies that spur economic growth and environmental protection in a global context – particularly in terms of reducing greenhouse-gas emissions that contribute to climate change. n Improve transparency of international markets through collection and analysis of energy data. n Support global collaboration on energy technology to secure future energy supplies and mitigate their environmental impact, including through improved energy efficiency and development and deployment of low-carbon technologies. n Find solutions to global energy challenges through engagement and dialogue with non-member countries, industry, international organisations and other stakeholders. IEA member countries: Australia Austria Belgium Canada Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Secure Sustainable Together Japan Korea (Republic of) Luxembourg Netherlands New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Slovak Republic © OECD/IEA, 2014 Spain International Energy Agency Sweden 9 rue de la Fédération 75739 Paris Cedex 15, France Switzerland Turkey www.iea.org United Kingdom Please note that this publication United States is subject to specific restrictions that limit its use and distribution. The European Commission The terms and conditions are available online at also participates in http://www.iea.org/termsandconditionsuseandcopyright/ the work of the IEA. © OECD/IEA 2014 The Asian Quest for LNG in a Globalising Market Foreword Four years ago, the IEA introduced the concept of the Golden Age of Gas, and nowhere does the future for natural gas look more golden than in Asia. By 2035, the IEA expects the continent’s demand to grow by as much as the current total production in the United States, and so most of the more than USD 200 billion investment wave in liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities worldwide Page | 3 is focused on the region. But much must change to achieve that golden future. Less than two years ago, in our latest in-depth study of Asia’s potential for gas, the IEA highlighted the need for a more transparent and efficient market, including gas trading hubs, to reduce the significant premium that Asians pay for LNG. The extensive and enthusiastic response to those findings shows that change is necessary. While the world has more than 200 years’ supply of gas in the ground, which reserves are pumped and used soonest depends more on a policy environment conducive to production and trade than the underlying geology. Energy policies that fail to encourage investment but keep gas priced below its true market price are going to produce both scarcity of supply and runaway demand growth. That is true for any region, of course, and that is why the issue of the changing gas market is more than just an Asian concern. Gas is not only abundant but also a key component of a medium-term energy mix that helps limit global temperature rise when replacing more carbon- intensive fuels. Recent geopolitical tensions remind us of the importance of gas supply security, and for many regions, LNG is the most credible and feasible diversification source. But with those tensions adding to the persistent tightness of the global gas trade, rigid and illiquid markets in Asia increase the challenge to make gas cost-competitive and easily accessible. Growing energy demand there means that gas not only must compete against other fuels but needs to be available in ever-growing quantities. Asia needs to prepare for that surge. For instance, much of the continent has little storage capacity and limited intraregional exchange, which raises the cost of maintaining supply security. Very high prices and supply bottlenecks have the potential to derail the Golden Age of Gas: Asia’s gas consumption outside China actually declined in 2013, and the rush to lock in new coal capacities continued unabated. The challenges will not be resolved automatically when North American gas starts to cross the oceans. That new supply is coming: probably the single most important recent development in the regional gas market, North American LNG was just a pipedream a few years ago and has now become a certainty. But new supply alone cannot make up for inadequate policy preparation, so Asian countries should not work from the assumption that US LNG alone would solve their energy dilemmas. That is where the broader Asian quest for LNG comes in. Done right, LNG offers a more secure and cleaner energy future for Asia, though that does not mean a cheap one. Unlike unconventional extraction that has cut prices in North America, the physics of LNG are not novel, and there are no prospects for radical new technologies leading to cost breakthroughs. Supercooling gas to a liquid state will always be capital and energy intensive, and so is shipping it in special tankers. Consequently, by relying on intercontinental LNG imports, Asia will pay more for gas than self- sufficient or exporting regions. But efficient and reliable markets will minimise costs and create incentives for exploration and development of new resources while expectations of robust Asian demand growth with sustained premium pricing drive investments and innovation into new business models. One example is new gas finds in East Africa that promise shorter delivery distances for much of Asia. At home, trading hubs can provide transparent regional prices and thus efficiently balance supply and demand, and optimise trade flows like they have done in many OECD regions. While geographical factors will continue to hinder pipeline connections, greater interconnection, too, can foster flexibility that reduces the risk of supply disruption. The Asian Quest for LNG in a Globalising Market © OECD/IEA 2014 The Golden Age of Gas is one of changing markets that make the best possible use of abundant resources to boost development in individual regions and, for the medium term, minimise climate change for everyone. Those economic and environmental necessities make LNG a global issue, rewriting long-held tenets about gas being regional by nature. As one example, Russian pipeline gas supply to Europe enabled post-earthquake Japan to import LNG that was previously destined for Europe, linking the supply security of diverse regions. Page | 4 The experience of IEA member countries proves that there is only one direction forward for LNG, natural gas in general, and all fuels: efficient and transparent markets coupled with sustained investment to build reliable, varied and economical sources of energy for a secure future. This is a lesson Asia is adopting, and one for other regions of the world to implement as well. This report is published under my authority as Executive Director of the IEA. Maria van der Hoeven Executive Director International Energy Agency © OECD/IEA 2014 The Asian Quest for LNG in a Globalising Market Table of contents Foreword .................................................................................................................................. 3 Acknowledgements ................................................................................................................... 9 Executive summary ................................................................................................................. 10 Page | 5 Introduction ............................................................................................................................ 14 Challenges to the status quo ................................................................................................... 16 Medium-term perspectives for global LNG markets ............................................................... 16 How pricing works today ......................................................................................................... 17 Cracks in the initial model ....................................................................................................... 20 Glitches over the past decade ......................................................................................... 20 How LNG projects started to deviate from the traditional model .................................. 22 On the market side: Open wounds .................................................................................. 24 Contracted gas supplies in Asian countries ..................................................................... 26 New co-operation models ..............................................................................................
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