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High Speed Rail: International Comparisons

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High Speed Rail: International Comparisons www.ricerchetrasporti.com HIGH SPEED RAIL: INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS Steer Davies Gleave Febbraio 2004 HIGH SPEED RAIL: INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS Final Report Report February 2004 Prepared for: Prepared by: Commission for Integrated Transport Steer Davies Gleave 28-32 Upper Ground London SE1 9PD [t] +44 (0)20 7919 8500 [i] www.steerdaviesgleave.com Final Report Contents Page EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2 The market for high speed rail 2 The costs of high speed rail 3 Appraisal in Britain and the case study countries 3 Recommendations for appraisal in Britain 4 The impact on the case for a high speed line 5 1. INTRODUCTION 7 Background 7 Project outline 7 Note on definitions 8 Structure of this report 8 Exchange rates 8 2. APPRAISAL AND HIGH SPEED RAIL IN THE CASE STUDY COUNTRIES 9 Introduction 9 Main appraisal method used 9 Purpose of appraisal 10 Scope of appraisal 11 Decision making criteria 17 Wider economic effects 19 Other factors impacting on the case for high speed rail 19 Conclusion 20 3. THE MARKET FOR HIGH SPEED RAIL 22 Introduction 22 Journey times and distance 22 Competitiveness of other transport modes 24 Demand and capacity 27 Combined analysis of the potential demand and benefit 28 C:\Documents and Settings\adam\Local Settings\Temporary Internet Files\OLK2\CfITHSRFinalReportFINAL030204.doc Contents Final Report Distribution of population 29 Conclusion 31 4. THE COST OF HIGH SPEED RAIL PROJECTS 32 Introduction 32 The scale of the difference 32 Explanations for differences in construction costs 35 Operating costs 39 5. REVIEW OF DIFFERENT COUNTRIES’ APPRAISAL TECHNIQUES 41 Introduction 41 Critique of case study countries appraisal techniques 42 Value of time in appraisal 46 Wider economic impacts 49 Conclusions 51 6. RECOMMENDATIONS FOR BRITAIN 52 Introduction 52 Valuations of time 52 Environmental impacts 53 Economic impact analysis 54 Risk and optimism bias 55 7. THE IMPACT ON THE CASE FOR A HIGH SPEED LINE 59 Introduction 59 The base case 59 Revised SRA appraisal 60 Impact of proposed amendments to appraisal criteria 62 Impact of cost reductions 62 8. CONCLUSIONS 64 The market for high speed rail 64 The costs of high speed rail 65 Appraisal in the case study countries 65 Recommendations for appraisal in Britain 67 C:\Documents and Settings\adam\Local Settings\Temporary Internet Files\OLK2\CfITHSRFinalReportFINAL030204.doc Contents Final Report The impact on the case for a high speed line 68 Conclusion 68 Status of high-speed rail programme 71 Historical development of the high speed rail network 71 Outline of the institutional structure of the rail industry 72 The transport market 72 Outline of process 74 Criteria used for appraisal 75 Criteria used for decision making 78 Status of high-speed rail programme 80 Historical development of the network 81 Outline of the institutional structure of the rail industry 81 The transport market 82 Outline of process 84 Criteria used for appraisal 86 Criteria used for decision making 89 Status of high-speed rail programme 91 Background and historical development of network 91 Outline of the institutional structure of the rail industry 92 The transport market 92 Outline of process 94 Criteria used for appraisal 94 Criteria used in decision making 98 Status of high-speed rail programme 101 Background and historical development of the network 102 Outline of the institutional structure of the rail industry 102 The transport market 103 Outline of process 104 Criteria used for appraisal 106 Criteria used for decision making 106 C:\Documents and Settings\adam\Local Settings\Temporary Internet Files\OLK2\CfITHSRFinalReportFINAL030204.doc Contents Final Report Status of high-speed rail programme 108 Historical development of the network 108 Outline of the institutional structure of the rail industry 111 The transport market 111 Outline of process 113 Criteria used in appraisals 114 Status of high-speed rail programme 118 Background and historical development of the network 119 Outline of the institutional structure of the rail industry 120 The transport market 120 Cost differentials 122 Outline of process 122 Criteria used for appraisal 123 Criteria used in decision making 125 Introduction and background to high speed rail 128 Outline of the institutional structure of the rail industry 128 The transport market 129 Appraisal criteria 131 FIGURES Figure 2.1 Comparison of values of time used 14 Figure 2.2 Comparison of values of a life used 14 Figure 3.1 Competitive advantage of high speed rail 23 Figure 3.2 Journey time advantage of high speed rail 24 Figure 3.3 Trains per direction per day on high speed lines 28 Figure 3.4 The potential demand for and benefits of high speed rail 29 Figure 3.5 Population density 30 C:\Documents and Settings\adam\Local Settings\Temporary Internet Files\OLK2\CfITHSRFinalReportFINAL030204.doc Contents Final Report Figure 4.1 High speed line construction costs per KM 33 Figure 4.2 Comparison of unit construction costs 34 TABLES Table 2.1 Main appraisal methods used 10 Table 2.2 Comparison of components used within cost benefit analysis 13 Table 5.1 VTTS for working time by mode 46 Table 7.1 The case for an HSL: Base 60 Table 7.2 The case for an HSL: Revised appraisal criteria 61 Table 7.3 The case for an HSL: Proposed Appraisal criteria 62 Table 7.4 The case for an HSL: Cost Reductions 63 Table 7.5 The case for an HSL: Combined effect 63 Table 8.1 Main appraisal methods used 66 APPENDICES A GREAT BRITAIN B FRANCE C GERMANY D ITALY C:\Documents and Settings\adam\Local Settings\Temporary Internet Files\OLK2\CfITHSRFinalReportFINAL030204.doc Contents Final Report E JAPAN F SPAIN G AUSTRALIA C:\Documents and Settings\adam\Local Settings\Temporary Internet Files\OLK2\CfITHSRFinalReportFINAL030204.doc Contents Final Report C:\Documents and Settings\adam\Local Settings\Temporary Internet Files\OLK2\CfITHSRFinalReportFINAL030204.doc 1 Final Report Executive summary 1. In September 2003, Britain opened its first high speed rail line, and the SRA is expected to launch a consultation exercise on the case for a major new high speed line, linking London with northern England and Scotland. However, Britain is far behind other countries in Europe and Asia in this respect, many of which now have extensive high speed rail networks. 2. The Commission for Integrated Transport (CfIT) commissioned Steer Davies Gleave to: • investigate whether Britain’s failure to invest in high speed rail results from differences in appraisal and decision making processes and criteria, or differences in transport markets or other factors, which mean that high speed rail is of less benefit in Britain than in other countries; and • make recommendations on how, if at all, Britain’s appraisal criteria and processes should be changed to better capture the costs and benefits of high speed rail. 3. In order to do this, we undertook case studies of high speed rail development, transport markets and appraisal processes in Britain and six other countries: France, Italy, Spain, Germany, Japan and Australia. Australia was selected in order to examine at least one country that had not invested in high speed rail. The market for high speed rail 4. Our analysis demonstrated that the case for high speed rail was dependent on a number of market factors and that the development of high speed rail in the case study countries did appear to be correlated with these factors. The main market factors were: • The case for high speed rail is strongest in countries where there is a large market for travel over distances of around 200-800km, and particularly in the range 300- 600km. High speed rail offers little benefit for journeys shorter than 150-200km, and is currently not be competitive with air transport for journeys longer than approximately 800km. • A high speed line can offer very high capacity. For there to be sufficient travel demand for this capacity to be utilised effectively, there must either be very large cities of approximately the right distances apart, or there must be a number of significant population centres that can be accessed by the same high speed route. • The construction of high speed lines is likely to be least difficult in sparsely populated countries, but within cities, high population densities mean that high speed railways (and conventional railways) can serve the potential market better. • The existence of very good conventional rail lines reduces the incremental economic case for high speed rail, particularly over shorter distances, although if it is possible to use existing railway lines on final approaches to major cities, the construction costs of high speed rail can be significantly reduced. C:\Documents and Settings\adam\Local Settings\Temporary Internet Files\OLK2\CfITHSRFinalReportFINAL030204.doc 2 Final Report 5. On these measures, the basic economic case for high speed rail construction in (particularly) France is stronger than in Britain. However, the case for high speed rail construction in Britain is now stronger than it would have been in the 1980s, when many other European countries were building or planning their first high speed lines. At that time, there was spare capacity on the British national rail network, but this now faces severe constraints, and the upgrade of the West Coast Main Line has demonstrated that resolving these constraints can be very disruptive and expensive. The costs of high speed rail 6. The SRA has based its analysis of the costs of a high speed line on the Channel Tunnel Rail Link. However, this is, per kilometre, the most expensive high speed railway to have been constructed anywhere in the world, even ignoring financing costs. Some of these reasons relate to the high proportion of tunnelling required on the approach to London, and the SRA have noted that part of the gap arises from substantial sunk costs relating to routes that were not built and improvements to Ashford and St Pancras.
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