European Coopération in the field bf Scientific and Technical Research COST 318 Interactions between High-Speed Rail and Air Passenger Transport Final Report European Commission Directorate General Transport . LEGAL NOTICE Neither the European Commission nor any përson acting on behalf of the Commission is résponsible for the use which might be made of the following information. The views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of the European Commission. A great deal of additional information on COST Transport is available on the World Wide Web. It can be accessed through the CORDIS server (http://www.cordis.lu/cost-transport/home.html) Cataloguing data can be found at the end of this publication. Luxembourg : Office for Officiai Publications of the European Communities, 1998 ISBN 92-828-3674-6 © ECSC-EEC-EAEC, Brussels • Luxembourg 1998 Reproduction is authorised, except for commercial purposes, provided the source is acknowledged Printed in Belgium Executive Summary EXECUTIVE SUMMARY With the inauguration of the first High-Speed Railway in Europe (1981) between Paris and Lyon a strong influence on Air Passenger Transport was observed. This influence has advantages and effects on both Systems. So the proposai for an investigation of thèse two high speed Systems was adopted for COST research topics. The working programme was elaborated by a Subcommittee and is summarised in six thèses and nine hypothèses that formed the base for carrying out COST Action 318. The participating countries Belgium, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden and Switzerland hâve signed the COST Action 318 which started in Mardi 1994. Several countries are on the way to build up an Europe-wide high-speed railway System: Estimatedly by about the year 2015, 30.000 km high-speed rail lines will hâve been built in Europe, of which 19.000 km high-speed tracks and 11.000 km Une improvements for speeds from 160 to 250 km per hour. According to an updated forecast for Europe issued by IATA, growth-rates in air transport are expected to be even higher in the future than in the past. Between 1990 and 1992 passenger boarding declined due to the world-wide économie recession but again annual growth was higher than 4% for the next period in Europe. In fact, air traffic slumps in the past 20 years were rapidly matchéd the following years and not affecting the gênerai upward trend. As a conséquence, disturbing (and costly) capacity constraints are likely to increase. The main objective of the COST Action is to identify and analyse the interactions and complementarities between high-speed rail (HSR) and air passenger transport, (APT), and to stress the benefit which arises from thèse combined actions for users and public welfare. The introductory chapter of this report shows the development of rail and air transport, discusses the question if APT is a forerunner and a model for HSR, describes the idea of HSR in Europe and asks if HSR's development is limited in the future. The second chapter deals with problems of optimising the adjustment between supply and demand, in particular the ability of HSR to compete with APT, the possibility of co-ordination of rail and air transport Systems capacities due to HSR, the improvement in the distribution of air transport demand among airports and discusses scénarios of complementarity between air and high-speed rail passenger transport. III COST318 Chapter three discusses the increase of socio-economic profitability by new High Speed Systems (HSS), especially the questions of the need for extended services on trains, and of multidimensional effects of HSR, and the question if air transport is more flexible than HSR and if air transport allows the saving of important investment costs compared to HSR. The fourth chapter describes the gênerai and multidimensional effects of rail stations at airports, the distribution of air transport demand among airports due to thèse rail stations and their impact on the public transport balance accounts. Chapter five gives a comprehensive description of the results which in certain cases leads to a reformulation of the hypothèses. As a gênerai resuit can be emphasised that the area of influence of rail and air transport will alter significantly if HSR is realised for ail connections with high traffic load: best effects resuit if both HSR and APT-networks are connected by efficient railway stations at ail important airports. While for travel distances of more than 300 km the compétitive edge of conventional railways is rapidly declining, for HSR this only applies for travel distances of over 600-700 km. In a future with HSR, APT will predominate on longer travel distance relations. A conséquence of this shift in the area of influence is, that air traffic will be reduced for certain relations by up to 50% if HSR connections provide an outstanding alternative. But also with a fully accomplished HSR network in Europe pf about 30.000 km the médium air transport réduction in the rail/air modal split will probably notexceed 15-20%. There are also important effects on the réduction of environmental damage (especially on air quality and réduction of congestion at airports). The conséquence of ail thèse modifications is a new and more sustainable balance of long distance trip distribution between rail and air transport and also for road traffic. IV Table of Contents Table of Contents Page List of Figures VIII List of Tables IX List of Annexes X List of Abbreviations XI 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Recommendations of the Subcommitee 1 1.2 Short historical Description Development of Rail and Air Transport 3 1.2.1 Railways after the Second World War 3 1.2.2 Developments in Aviation -. 5 1.3 Tendencies in the World around High-Speed Rail and Air Transport 7 1.3.1 Global économie trends 7 1.3.2 Tendencies in Air and Rail Traffic 10 1.4 The Idea of High-Speed Rail in Europe 12 1.5 Perspectives for an Analysis 13 1.6 Air Transport as a Forerunner and a Model for High-Speed Rail 15 1.6.1 European Transport System 15 1.6.2 European High-Speed Rail Transport 19 1.6.3 Air Transport in Europe 26 1.6.4 Comparison of the Development of High-Speed Rail and Air Transport 32 1.6.5 Is Air Transport a Forerunner for High-Speed Rail Transport?...42 1.6.6 Conclusion 44 1.7 Are there Limitations of High-Speed Rail in the Future? 45 1.7.1 ,,High-Speed Rail" 45 1.7.2 ,,BestTime" 46 1.7.3 Concept of Limitation 47 1.7.4 Conclusion 49 2 New High-Speed System and Optimisation of the Adjustment between Supply and Demand 51 2.1 The Ability of High-Speed Rail to compete with Air Passenger Transport 51 2.2 How to improve the Co-ordination of Rail and Air Transport System Capacities due to High-Speed Rail Transport? 52 2.2.1 Findings from existing studies 52 2.2.2 New steps forward ..53 V COST318 2.3 Are there Improvements in the Distribution of Air Transport Demand among Airports? 56 2.3.1 Distribution in gênerai 56 2.3.2 Past and présent Distribution of Air Passenger Transport Demand 59 2.3.3 Trends and Prospects 65 2.3.4 CaseStudies 66 2.3.5 Conclusions 69 2.4 Which Scénarios of Complementarity between Air and High-Speed Rail Passenger Transport ? 71 New High-Speed System and Increase in the socio-economic Profitability 75 3.1 The Need of Extended Services on Train 75 3.1.1 Introduction 75 3.1.2 Price and Ticketing System 77 3.1.3 Travel Time, Frequency and Scheduling 77 3.1.4 Comfort, Service, etc "..„ 80 3.1.5 Safety and Concern for the Environment 83 3.1.6 Conclusions 84 3.2 Is Air Passenger Transport more flexible than High-Speed Rail? 84 3.2.1 Flexibility of Air Passenger Transport 84 3.2.2 Conclusions 87 3.3 Does Air Transport allow the Saving of important Investment Costs? 88 3.3.1 Costs of High-Speed Rail Transport.'. .' 88 3.3.2 Costs of Air Transport 91 3.3.3 Comparison of Costs... 94 3.3.4 Conclusions 99 3.4 What are multidimensonal Effects of High-Speed Rail? 100 3.4.1 The Effects on Time Saving 100 3.4.2 The Effects on Operating Costs ...:l01 3.4.3 The Effects on Energy Consumptiori: : 101 3.4.4 The Effects on Air Pollution 102 3.4.5 The Effects on Noise Disturbance 103 3.4.6 The Effects on Airport Infrastructure Investments 103 3.4.7 Conclusions. .104 VI Table of Contents 4 Effects of Rail Stations at Airports 105 4.1 General Effects of Rail Stations at Airports 105 4.1.1 Bénéficiai Effects on theRail Transport System 108 4.1.2. Bénéficiai Effects on the Air Transport System .' 110 4.2 Multidimensional Effects of Rail Stations at Airports 112 4.3 The Distribution of Air Passenger Transport Demand due to Rail Stations at Airports 116 4.3.1 Compatibility as ,,Complementary" and/or,,by Substitution" ... 117 4.3.2 Rail Stations at Airports 119 4.3.3 Evaluation of Outside Reports 122 4.3.4 CaseStudies 124 4.3.5 Short Missions 127 4.3.6 Delphi-Survey 134 4.3.7 Comparisons (according to typical Backgrounds) 137 4.3.8 Conclusions 141 4.4 The Impact of Rail Stations at Airports on the Public Transport Balance of Accounts 144 4.4.1 Practical Dealing Process of Hypothesis 13 145 4.4.2 CaseStudies 147 5 Comprehensive Description of Results..