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China Toll Roads Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Chin Y MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH ASIA/PACIFIC Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Andy Meng, CFA [email protected] +852 2239 7689 Edward H Xu, CFA [email protected] +852 2239 1521 Tommy Wong January 14, 2010 [email protected] Ying Guo [email protected] Industry View China Toll Roads Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Chin Y. Lim, CFA In-Line Pte.+ +65 6834 6858 Driven by China’s Long-term Economic Growth: In-Line Rating & Price Target Company Ticker Rating Price Target Conclusion: We initiate coverage of China’s toll road Zhejiang Exp. 576.HK Overweight HKD 8.96 industry with an In-Line view. We believe the industry is Sichuan Exp. 107.HK Overweight HKD 4.96 well positioned to benefit from long-term economic Jiangsu Exp. 177.HK Equal-weight HKD 7.59 growth and rising car consumption in China. Aggressive toll road network expansion by the government might Anhui Exp. 995.HK Equal-weight HKD 5.87 lead to traffic migration away from existing toll roads, in Shenzhen Exp. 548.HK Equal-weight HKD 4.17 addition to declining IRR, but we actually expect limited HHI 737.HK Equal-weight HKD 5.26 impact on the listed companies. Of them, we view Source: Morgan Stanley Research Zhejiang Expressway as the largest beneficiary of a potential export recovery in 2010, while Sichuan Toll Road Traffic Continues to Recover Expressway will be a good proxy for a strong economy 1,200 25% in southwest China, in our view. 2008 2009 YoY Growth (RHS) 1,000 18% 20% Aggressive road expansion not a major concern: 17% 800 15% We hold this non-consensus view for three reasons. 1) 14% 13% The expansion can accelerate local economic growth, 9% introducing higher traffic growth in the long term. 2) Any 600 10% 10% potential negative effect on the listed companies, which Vehicles/Day '000 are mostly located in coastal areas, will be limited, as the 400 4% 5% 1% government will mainly be investing in roads in under- 1% 0% 200 0% developed inland regions. 3) The rising capex will lead to -2% a significant financial burden for local governments. To - -5% address this issue, we believe they will either raise tariffs Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec (20% probability) or inject assets into listed toll road Data is for average daily traffic (ADT) of major toll roads in Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shenzhen, Anhui, and Sichuan expressways. companies in return for cash (80% probability). This Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research would offer a good opportunity for the listed operators to gain quality assets and enlarge their toll road portfolios. Traffic growth is the key driver for toll road stocks, according to our correlation analysis, while export recovery, toll-by-weight billing changes, and asset injections are potential catalysts. We expect Zhejiang Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with Expressway and Sichuan Expressway to outperform, as companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As they are the only two listed operators that could benefit a result, investors should be aware that the firm may from all three catalysts in 2010-11. have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors Key risks to our call: Downside – significant economic should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision. slowdown in China; double-dip in export growth; exogenous risks such as natural disasters. Upside – For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, stronger-than-expected traffic recovery boosted by rapid located at the end of this report. economic growth. += Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to NASD/NYSE restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account. MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH January 14, 2010 China Toll Roads Contents Investment Debates Summary........................................................................................................................................ 3 Investment Summary...................................................................................................................................................... 4 Investment Positives....................................................................................................................................................... 5 Riding on China’s Long-term GDP Growth .............................................................................................................................................................. 5 Beneficiary of Rising Car Consumption in China ..................................................................................................................................................... 5 Export Recovery to Boost Traffic Volume in Coastal Areas ..................................................................................................................................... 6 Toll-by-weight: a Positive Catalyst ........................................................................................................................................................................... 6 Investment Concerns...................................................................................................................................................... 7 Traffic Migration to Railways .................................................................................................................................................................................... 7 Traffic Migration to Newly Constructed Toll Roads .................................................................................................................................................. 7 Rising Fuel Cost ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 7 Falling IRR................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 7 Debate #1: Is Aggressive Road Investment Negative for Listcos?............................................................................ 8 Debate #2: What Drives Stock Prices? ....................................................................................................................... 13 Debate #3: Are Toll Road Companies Bear Market Stocks? .................................................................................... 16 Valuation: How to Value Toll Road Stocks................................................................................................................. 17 Peer Comparison........................................................................................................................................................... 21 Scenario Analysis ......................................................................................................................................................... 23 Company Analysis ........................................................................................................................................................ 24 Zhejiang Expressway.................................................................................................................................................... 25 Sichuan Expressway..................................................................................................................................................... 39 Jiangsu Expressway..................................................................................................................................................... 50 Shenzhen Expressway.................................................................................................................................................. 64 Anhui Expressway ........................................................................................................................................................ 78 HHI .................................................................................................................................................................................. 90 Appendix 1: China Expressway Network Brief Introduction .................................................................................... 99 Appendix 2: China Toll Road Industry Background................................................................................................ 101 Appendix 3: Economic Growth Outlook of Five Key Provinces ............................................................................ 103 Appendix 4: Peer Comparison with Overseas Toll Road Companies ................................................................... 105 2 MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH January 14, 2010 China Toll Roads Investment Debates Summary Debate 1: Is aggressive expansion a major Over-investment risk skewed to under-developed provinces concern for listed companies? Most conservative investment in Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong Market view: China’s aggressive investment in 1.8 toll road infrastructure is negative for the industry 1.6 1. Economy size is relatively small, higher as it will lower traffic flow and the internal rate of 1.4 risk with aggressive expressway
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