freeman chair in china studies Decoding China’s Emerging “Great Power” Strategy in Asia By Christopher K. Johnson Contributing Authors: Ernest Z. Bower, Victor D. Cha, Michael J. Green, and Matthew P. Goodman May 5, 2014 Principal Investigator: Mr. Christopher K. Johnson Senior Advisor and Freeman Chair in China Studies Center for Strategic and International Studies 1616 Rhode Island Avenue NW Washington, DC 20036 Phone: (202) 775-7321 Email:
[email protected] INTRODUCTION The course charted by China’s reemergence as a great power over the next few decades represents the primary strategic challenge for the U.S.-Japan security alliance and for the East Asian security landscape writ large. If China’s economic, military, and geopolitical influence continues to rise at even a modest pace during this period, we will witness the largest shift in the global distribution of power since the rise of the United States in the late 19th and early 20th Centuries. And, if China in the next 10-15 years surpasses the United States in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms as the world largest economy, it will mark the first time in centuries that the world’s economic leader will be non-English speaking, non- Western, and non-democratic. Of course, these are some pretty big ifs. To stay on the path toward realizing this new global balance of power, China’s leaders will have to successfully navigate the many challenges they face both at home and abroad. They will have to demonstrate sufficient foresight and flexibility to respond to immediate tactical concerns while always staying mindful of their geostrategic long game.