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Copyright © 2015 Travis William Kaiser All Rights Reserved. The Copyright © 2015 Travis William Kaiser All rights reserved. The Southern Baptist Theological Seminary has permission to reproduce and disseminate this document in any form by any means for purposes chosen by the Seminary, including, without limitation, preservation or instruction. A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE CHURCH RETENTION RATE OF CHRISTIAN HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATES __________________ A Dissertation Presented to the Faculty of The Southern Baptist Theological Seminary __________________ In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Doctor of Philosophy __________________ by Travis William Kaiser May 2015 APPROVAL SHEET A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE CHURCH RETENTION RATE OF CHRISTIAN HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATES Travis William Kaiser Read and Approved by: __________________________________________ Brian C. Richardson (Chair) __________________________________________ Troy W. Temple Date ______________________________ To my wife, Mary Julia, And our children, Will, Ellie Claire, Daniel, and Laine You have gone beyond the call of duty to help me reach this goal. TABLE OF CONTENTS Page LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS . vii LIST OF TABLES . viii PREFACE . x Chapter 1. RESEARCH CONCERN . 1 Introduction to the Research Problem . 1 A Research Gap . 4 Research Purpose . 6 Research Questions . 7 Delimitations to the Study . 7 Terminology . 8 Research Assumptions . 10 Procedural Overview . 10 2. PRECEDENT LITERATURE . 12 The Role of the “One Another” Church . 12 Defining a Young Adult: Who Am I? . 16 Protestant Schooling in America . 27 Young Adult Retention Research . 42 Profile of the Current Study . 61 3. METHODOLOGICAL DESIGN . 63 Research Question Synopsis . 63 Design Overview . 64 iv Chapter Page Population . 65 Samples and Delimitations . 65 Limitations of Generalizations . 67 Instrumentation . 67 Procedures . 70 4. ANALYSIS OF FINDINGS . 73 Compilation Protocol . 73 Demographic and Sample Data . 75 Findings and Displays . 78 Evaluation of the Research Design . 103 Strengths of the Research Design . 103 Weaknesses of the Research Design . 104 5. CONCLUSION . 106 Research Purpose . 106 Research Questions . 107 Conclusions from Research Questions . 107 Research Implications . 112 Research Applications . 117 Research Limitations . 122 Further Research . 123 Appendix 1. CORRESPONDENCE WITH PRINCIPALS . 127 2. YOUTH MINISTRY RETENTION QUESTIONNAIRE . 129 3. DESCRIPTION OF EXPERT PANEL . 134 4. EMAIL TO EXPERT PANEL . 135 5. INSTRUCTIONS FOR EXPERT PANEL . 136 v Appendix Page 6. ASSOCIATION OF CHRISTIAN SCHOOLS INTERNATIONAL STATEMENT OF FAITH . 137 7. CORRESPONDENCE WITH PARTICIPANTS . 138 8. THANK YOU LETTER TO PRINCIPALS . 139 REFERENCE LIST . 140 vi LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ACSI Association of Christian Schools International FJYA Faith Journey of Young Adults NCES National Center of Educational Statistics YMRQ Youth Ministry Retention Questionnaire vii LIST OF TABLES Table Page 1. Criteria of categorizing levels of youth ministry commitment . 69 2. Criteria of categorizing levels of current ministry commitment . 69 3. Demographic information for survey participants (N = 309) . 76 4. Frequency percentages for levels of youth ministry commitment and current church involvement . 78 5. Chi-Square (χ²) test of independence: Youth ministry commitment by current church involvement categories for independent covenantal Christian high school graduates (N = 68) . 87 6. One-way ANOVA: Youth ministry commitment and church involvement for independent covenantal Christian schools . 88 7. Chi-Square (χ²) test of independence: Youth ministry commitment by current church involvement categories for independent open admission Christian high school graduates (N = 84) . 90 8. One-way ANOVA: Youth ministry commitment and church involvement for independent open admission Christian schools . 91 9. Chi-Square (χ²) test of independence: Youth ministry commitment by current church involvement categories for church-related covenantal Christian high school graduates (N = 86) . 93 10. One-way ANOVA: Youth ministry commitment and church involvement for church-related covenantal Christian schools . 94 11. Chi-Square (χ²) test of independence: Youth ministry commitment by current church involvement categories for church-related open admission Christian high school graduates (N = 71) . 96 12. One-way ANOVA: Youth ministry commitment and church involvement for church-related open admission Christian schools . 96 13. Chi-Square (χ²) test of independence: Youth ministry commitment by current church involvement categories for Christian high school graduates (N = 309) . 100 14. 4 X 3 ANOVA: Type of youth ministry commitment level category and church involvement across Christian high school categories (N = 302) . 101 viii PREFACE There is not nearly enough room for me to thank all of those who have helped in this journey. There are, however, a significant few that I would like to thank personally. First, I offer my sincere gratitude to my wife, Mary Julia, for all of the support she has given me during this endeavor. You have been my biggest cheerleader. Second, I am grateful and thankful for the love and support of my parents, Jerry and Carol Kaiser, for always encouraging me to give my all. Third, I am appreciative of my sister, Connie Peavler, who has always believed in me regardless of the endeavor. I want to thank Dr. Brian Richardson, Dr. Troy Temple, and Dr. Michael Wilder for their unwavering support. I will always be grateful for their sacrificial investment to make me a better thinker and writer. I am very thankful for my friend, Brandon Shields, who allowed me to use his instrument so I could further the work of youth ministry and the local church. I am also thankful for Highview Baptist Church, particularly Jimmy Scroggins, who launched me on this journey; Long Hollow Baptist Church, who has supported me throughout; and Florence Baptist Church for letting me finish well. Travis William Kaiser Florence, Kentucky May 2015 ix CHAPTER 1 RESEARCH CONCERN Parents have struggled for decades with the decision of where to send their children to school. In recent years, with the increase of private education options combined with increased problems in public high schools, the decision is more complicated than ever (Flannery 2010; Shaw 2011). Christian parents have a more difficult time trying to decide between a public education that is free of cost and a private Christian education that may stretch their budget. Money aside, the goal for most Christian parents is to see their children spiritually mature. What if students from Christian schools drop out of church just as often as students from other types of schools? We are forced to ask: is it worth paying for an education with a religious environment if the spiritual outcome is not different? Introduction to the Research Problem As parents send their high school graduates off to college they wonder how their students will survive. Have they done enough to train them? Did they have them involved at the right church? Did they send them to the right high school? It is assumed that Christian parents, seminaries, churches, and youth pastors all share the same desire for young people, which is to see them grow into spiritually mature adults. With that mutual goal, the next step is to evaluate the process of getting students to that point. A crucial part of this process is successfully launching students from high school into college as they continue to spiritually mature. This “launch” occurs in the home, school, church, and home. For a high school the criterion is graduation rate (Pinkus 2006; all4ed.org). In the home, success is seen over a long period of time and in this 1 specific situation will be considered by how the student transitions to college life (Schultz 2003, 59-76). For a local church, the focus shifts to the youth ministry since this is the church ministry most closely connected to high school students. The evaluation of a youth ministry can be viewed from several different angles. Recently, the most popular evaluation tool among researchers has been the retention rate of Christian high school students once they enter their college career. Those paying close attention to the world of Christian youth ministry are using this retention rate to determine if current models of youth ministry are effective (Baucham 2007, 9-12, 176- 82; King 2006, 11; Reid 2004, 42-44; Wright 2007, 17-20). Currently there are two main studies that have stirred up discussion about the church retention rate of Christian students during their college careers. The first is a study completed by Wes Black, professor of student ministry at Southwestern Baptist Theological Seminary. The study lasted over two years and evaluated factors that influenced Christian teenagers who remained in church during their teenage years and continued to do so in their young adult life. Factors that.
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