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INDONESIA ENERGY SUBSIDY BRIEFING a Bi-Monthly Review of Developments in Indonesian Energy Subsidy Policy and Energy Markets

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INDONESIA ENERGY SUBSIDY BRIEFING a Bi-Monthly Review of Developments in Indonesian Energy Subsidy Policy and Energy Markets INDONESIA ENERGY SUBSIDY BRIEFING A bi-monthly review of developments in Indonesian energy subsidy policy and energy markets As part of its work on energy policy and sustainable development in Indonesia, the Global Subsidies Initiative (GSI) of the International Institute FEBRUARY for Sustainable Development (IISD) publishes a regular briefing on issues related to energy subsidies. This special edition reports in length on some of the major policy changes that have taken place in Indonesia 2015 since November 2014. For more information, contact Lucky Lontoh at [email protected] and Christopher Beaton at [email protected]. Highlights • On 31 December 2014, Indonesian President • A detailed synthesis has yet to emerge on Joko Widodo announces the removal of exactly how the government will propose subsidies on Premium gasoline and the to reallocate the savings from subsidy introduction of a “fixed” subsidy on Solar expenditure. Latest reports indicate plans to diesel. Due to low world oil prices, the inject IDR 67.86 trillion (US$ 5.4 billion) into immediate impact of this decision is a state-owned enterprises for infrastructure. decrease in gasoline and diesel prices on 1 January and then again on 19 January • These policy changes follow closely on 2015. The latest figure in the proposal for the gasoline and diesel price increases in Revised State Budget shows an anticipated November 2014. A number of new systems to decline in fuel subsidy expenditure of provide compensation were introduced before IDR 194.2 trillion (US$ 15.5 billion). these price increases, including a new health card and cash transfer systems that deliver • The government also announces a new pricing funds directly to individual savings accounts. mechanism for petroleum fuel. Premium This may be indicative of how the government gasoline is to be sold at market prices, but plans to cope with high energy prices once the distribution costs to remote areas will world oil prices rise again. continue to be subsidized. Solar diesel will be sold at IDR 1,000 below the market price. • A number of price reforms have also taken The government is to announce price changes place for 12kg-cylinder LPG and electricity every two to four weeks. tariffs. Indonesia Discontinues Gasoline Subsidy for Java- automotive diesel from IDR 7,500 to IDR 7,250 per liter Madura-Bali, Transitions to Semi Automatic Pricing (US$ 0.6 to US$ 0.58 per liter) and the price of kerosene System―While Lowering Fuel Prices remained at IDR 2,500 per liter (US$ 0.20 per liter) (Kompas, 2014a). On 31 December 2014, cabinet representatives― consisting of the Coordinating Minister of Economic During the same announcement, Sofyan Djalil, the Affairs, the Coordinating Minister of Maritime Affairs, the Coordinating Minister of Economic Affairs, declared that Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources, the Minister of the new Premium price was from 1 January onwards to Finance and the Minister of State Owned Enterprises― be subsidy free. The new prices are to be determined announced that Indonesia’s fuel prices would be lowered based on assumptions of crude oil prices at US$ 60 as of 1 January 2015. The price of Premium (gasoline RON per barrel and an IDR 12,380 per US$ 1 exchange rate 88) was decreased from IDR 8,500 to IDR 7,600 per liter (AntaraNews, 2014). (US$ 0.68 to US$ 0.61 per liter)1, the price of Solar-brand Two weeks later―on Friday 16 January―the government announced that the price of automotive fuels would be 1. Unless otherwise stated, an exchange rate of US$ 0.00008 per IDR is used for all exchange conversions in this briefing. decreased once more, as of Monday 19 January. The 2 price of premium fuel was lowered from IDR 7,600 to IDR shift the subsidy from consumptive to productive sectors, 6,600 per liter (US$ 0.61 to US$ 0.53 per liter) and the price especially for infrastructure, health and education of Solar-brand diesel from IDR 7,250 to IDR 6,400 (US$ 0.6 purposes (see Box 1). to US$ 0.51 per liter) (Liputan6, 2015a). At the current time, it is difficult to predict what the Indonesia has been able to announce the removal of outcome of these reforms will be. On the one hand, the subsidies on gasoline at the same time as lowering moves show that the Widodo government is serious in the price of this fuel because of the sharp decline in its commitment to reforming subsidies, an objective international oil prices since July 2014 (see Figure 1), that it has emphasized during the Presidential elections which ultimately brought international oil prices below and in the run-up to the inauguration. The frequency the levels of domestically regulated prices. of recent price changes is startling for a country that, until November 2014, has seen gasoline and diesel Figure 1. Average International Crude Oil Price, 2014 prices changed only four times since 2005. On the other hand, it remains to be seen how the government will be able to respond when world prices rise again. The decision to decrease prices back to pre-November levels is a popular one, but it also means that a larger absolute scale of price increases will be necessary in future. Depending on other political circumstances, it may be difficult for the government to maintain its commitment to price increases, particularly among a citizenry who are not used to prices changing. When world prices rise, the government will have to choose between the unpopularity of domestic price increases or the budgetary risk of re-introducing significant energy subsidies. Source: World Bank, 2015. New Subsidy Scheme Efforts to remove subsidies also took place in 2014, but to the opposite effect, when on 17 November it was The government’s 31 December announcement did not announced that domestic prices would be increased to just change prices―it also saw the introduction of a cut subsidy spending. At this point in time, international new fuel subsidy scheme. The scheme introduces three oil prices were still higher than domestic prices. The classifications of fuel product, the specific fuel (bahan government increased the Premium price from IDR 6,500 bakar minyak tertentu), the designated fuel (BBM khusus to IDR 8,500 per liter (US$ 0.52 to US$ 0.7 per liter) and penugasan) and the general fuel (bahan bakar umum). Solar from IDR 5,500 to IDR 7,500 per liter (US$ 0.44 to US$ 0.62 per liter). The new prices immediately took effect The first category, “specific fuels”, includes Solar diesel on 18 November 2014, 00:00 Western Indonesian Time, and kerosene, products that still receive a subsidy. putting an end to months of speculation about possible The new Solar diesel subsidy will run based on a “fixed fuel price changes following the Presidential election. subsidy” mechanism, while the kerosene will run on A summary of all recent fuel price changes is shown in “fixed price” mechanism. This means that the price of Table 1, below. Solar should vary in 2015, with a fixed overall subsidy margin between domestic and market prices, whereas the Table 1. Changes in Indonesian Fuel Prices, 2014-2015 price of kerosene will remain the same, and the overall Pre-reform 18 Nov 2014 1 Jan 2015 19 Jan 2015 cost of the subsidy will depend on the exact gap between market and domestic prices throughout the year. Prem. gasoline 6,500 8,500 7,600 6,600 Solar diesel 5,500 7,500 7,250 6,400 The second two categories, “special designed fuels” Kerosene 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 and “general fuels”, include Premium gasoline. Special designed fuels includes gasoline that is intended to serve In November, President Widodo explained that the remote or hard-to-reach areas. It is described as “non- decision to reform subsidies is a government effort to subsidized”, but it will in fact still receive a subsidy that 3 Box 1. President Widodo’s November Address on Fuel Price Changes “Assalamualaikum Warahmatullahi Wabarakatuh [Peace be upon you, and Allah’s mercy and blessings] For time to time, we as a nation face difficult choices. However, we have to choose and make a decision. Today, after series of detailed discussions in a Cabinet Meeting at the Coordinating Ministry of Economic Affairs and a smaller meeting at the Palace, the government has decided to undertake the reallocation of fuel subsidies from consumptive to productive sectors. Until now, the State has needed funds for infrastructure and to develop education and healthcare. But the funds Indonesia Healthy Card and the Indonesia Smart Card, for these things has not been available because it was which can maintain people’s purchasing power as well as frittered away on the fuel subsidy. As the consequence boosting activities in economically productive sectors. of reallocating the subsidy, I, as the President of the Republic of Indonesia, set the new fuel price which will be There must be pros and cons. The government truly effective at 00.00 Western Indonesian Time, starting from appreciates each input. May this subsidy reallocation to 18 November 2014. The price of Premium is changed from the productive sectors be the open way to provide a more IDR 6,500 to IDR 8,500. The price of Solar is changed from useful budget for the Indonesian people as a whole. Hereby IDR 5,500 to IDR 7,500. I deliver this speech. For the less fortunate classes, social assistance is prepared Wassalamualaikum Warahmatullahi Wabarakatuh.” in form of a package, the Prosperous Family Card, the Source: Sekretariat Kabinet RI YouTube Channel, 2015) compensates for its distribution cost.
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