Influencing Adversary States: Quelling Perfect Storms
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C O R P O R A T I O N PAUL K. DAVIS, ANGELA O’MAHONY, CHRISTIAN CURRIDEN, JONATHAN LAMB Influencing Adversary States Quelling Perfect Storms For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RRA161-1 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-1-9774-0652-1 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © 2021 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Cover: cherylvb/Adobe Stock; fotokostic/Getty Images. Cover design: Katherine Wu Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface This report describes experimental concepts and methods for assisting in the formulation of strategy to deter aggression—or escalation thereafter—by major state adversaries and competitors. It uses a hypothetical crisis with China to illustrate necessary contextual information. Comments or questions should be addressed to Paul K. Davis and Angela O’Mahony at [email protected] and aomahon1@ rand.org. The research reported here was completed in September 2020 and underwent security review with the sponsor and the Defense Office of Prepublication and Security Review before public release. This research was sponsored by the Strategy and Force Development office within the Office of the Secretary of Defense for Policy (OSDP/SFD) and conducted within the International Security and Defense Policy (ISDP) Center of the RAND National Security Research Division (NSRD), which operates the National Defense Research Institute (NDRI), a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense intelligence enterprise. For more information on the RAND ISDP, see www.rand.org /nsrd/isdp or contact the director (contact information is provided on the webpage). iii Contents Preface .............................................................................iii Figures ............................................................................. ix Tables .............................................................................. xi Summary ........................................................................ xiii Acknowledgments ..............................................................xix CHAPTER ONE Introduction ....................................................................... 1 Motivations for the Study ......................................................... 1 Objectives ........................................................................... 2 Approach ............................................................................ 2 Background ......................................................................... 4 Deterrence ........................................................................ 4 Escalation ......................................................................... 8 Putting It Together: Influence Theory ........................................ 8 Structure of the Report ............................................................ 9 CHAPTER TWO Lessons from History and Psychology .......................................11 Historical Blunders ...............................................................11 Lessons from Cognitive Psychology ............................................19 Classes of Decisionmaking Error .............................................19 Cognitive Biases ................................................................ 20 Prospect Theory ................................................................ 22 Prevalence ....................................................................... 23 v vi Influencing Adversary States: Quelling Perfect Storms CHAPTER THREE Cognitive Modeling and Thinking-Red Exercises ........................25 Challenges and Approach ....................................................... 26 Factor Trees ........................................................................32 Neutral Factor Trees ............................................................32 Factor Trees to Convey Narratives and Anticipate Perfect Storms ........35 Models of Red .....................................................................37 Representing Limited Rationality .............................................. 40 Heuristic Factor-Tree Method ................................................ 40 Deliberate Method Highlighting Outcome Uncertainty ................ 42 Influence Actions and Strategies ............................................... 46 Candidate Actions for Influence ............................................. 46 Influence Strategies .............................................................47 Evaluating Influence Strategies ..................................................47 Direct Estimates ............................................................... 48 More-Systematic Assessment Using Factor Trees .......................... 50 Deliberate Estimates Recognizing Outcome Uncertainties ................51 Seeking a Robust Strategy .......................................................51 CHAPTER FOUR Illustration: Hypothetical Crisis with China ...............................53 Initiating Scenario ............................................................... 54 Factor Trees for China If Considering Acts of Aggression ...................55 Alternative Models of China .....................................................59 Insights from China-Watcher Literature .....................................59 Analytically Constructed Models of China..................................62 Modeling China’s Limited Rationality .........................................65 Heuristic Chinese Factor-Tree Assessment of Options .....................67 Deliberate Chinese Evaluation of Options ...................................67 Some Circumspection: Is This Adding Value? ..............................71 Improved Procedures for Subsequent Exercises .............................73 Crafting U.S. Influence Strategies ..............................................74 Finding Targets for Influence .................................................74 Candidate Actions for Influence ..............................................74 Influence Strategies .............................................................78 Estimating Effects of U.S. Strategy ............................................ 80 Contents vii Direct Assessments of U.S. Options ......................................... 80 More-Systematic Assessment ..................................................81 Seeking a Robust U.S. Influence Strategy .....................................82 CHAPTER FIVE Conclusions .......................................................................85 APPENDIXES Appendixes ....................................................................... 87 A. Mathematics of Thresholded Linear Weighted Sums ................89 B. Computational Version of Factor Tree Model ..........................91 C. Bayesian Updating of Red’s Blue: Simple Artificial Intelligence .. 97 D. Input Data for Model ..................................................... 105 E. Simplifying Probabilistic Calculations ................................ 109 References ....................................................................... 113 Figures S.1. Overview of Approach ..............................................xv 1.1. Influencing the Adversary’s Choice of Actions .................... 7 2.1. Opposed Errors to Avoid: Mirror-Imaging and Stereotyping ..18 3.1. Overview of the Approach ......................................... 27 3.2. A Neutral Factor Tree from Political Science in the Great-Power Competition .................................. 34 3.3. Generic Factor-Tree Considering an Aggressive Action ........ 36 3.4. Red May Reason Heuristically or Deliberately ..................41 4.1. Factor Tree for China Contemplating Invasion of Taiwan .... 56 4.2. Perfect Storm Graphic .............................................. 68 4.3. Contrasting Assessments for Alternative Models of Red ........70 4.4. Contrasts If the Cautious Realist Is Even More Cautious .....72 4.5. Finding Targets for Influence Actions ............................75 B.1. Model Interface ..................................................... 92 B.2. Deliberate Calculation Configuration ............................93 B.3. Factor Tree Configuration ......................................... 94 B.4. Illustrative Exploratory Analysis ...................................95