1 Nuclear, MissileNuclear, Missile & Space Digest & Space Digest

Volume 11, Number 03 A Fortnightly Newsletter from the Indian Pugwash Society February 15, 2019

Convener (Interim) Contents A. & ó Sanction for increased maritime surveillance assets - 12 do Aircraft Editor ó Headquarters Andaman Nicobar Command ANC to enhance its operational capability with the upcoming commissioning of INS Kohassa Dr Rajiv Nayan ó NSTL - ACADEMIA MEET (NAM 2019) @ NSTL ó India inks deal to get uranium supply from Uzbekistan ó 'Having nuclear weapons makes a country stronger' ó Rosatom announces scholarships for Indian students in nuclear energy studies ó Two-Day Coastal Defence Exercise "Sea Vigil" Concludes ó Successful Flight Test of LRSAM ó Test and Certification Agency clears Biojet fuel for Aircraft ó INS Kohassa - a New Bird's Nest in the Andamans ó 'Kudankulam Nuclear Power Plant units I and II have generate 30,108 million Executive Council units electricity ó The golden era of UAE-India relations, Lt Gen (Dr) B S Malik, PVSM, AVSM (Retd) ó India and Pakistan prefer different kinds of war ó IAF Jaguar Fighter Aircraft Crashes Prof Amitav Mallik ó TVEL to supply fuel pellets for Tarapur Prof Rajesh Rajagopalan ó Gsat-31 to replace dying sat Insat-4CR on Feb 6 Shri M V Rappai ó Amid Rafale row, PM Modi says defence projects pending for decades have materialised Prof Varun Sahni ó India and Maldives to Continue Close Cooperation on Maritime Security and Counter-Terrorism ó Modi boasts of nuclear triad for second time in 3 months ó Higher budget allocation for Space technology

B. Pakistan ó Pakistan today successfully conducted training launch of short range surface to surface ballistic missile "Nasr" to enhance the operational efficiency of Army besides re-validating the desired technical parameters ó Pakistan tests tactical nuclear missile against Indian 'Cold Start' attack ó Pakistan Conducts Test of Nuclear-Capable Nasr Missile ó Nasr's launch unnerved Indian commanders

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C. China ó Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Hua Chunying's Regular Press Conference ó Rolls-Royce in talks to supply Chinese nuclear plant in Essex ó Chinese nuclear firm denies changing strategy in the UK to allay national concerns ó Will North Korea transfer ICBMs to China? ó Ten Chinese SOEs selected to strive for "global excellence" goals ó We ranked the world's nuclear arsenals - here's why China's came out on top ó Missile launch shows China's DF-26 able to adjust position mid-flight, attack moving aircraft carriers: expert ó US 1,000-mile range 'supergun' may be a de facto intermediate-range ballistic missile: analysts ó Iran worried over delay in Chinese nuclear reactor redesign ó Will US tech cold war against China's 5G split world? ó P5 agree to protect nuke treaty ó China urges non-nuke states to join NPT ó Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Geng Shuang's Regular Press Conference

D. USA ó Hours after U.S. troops killed in Syria, Pence says Islamic State defeated ó Trump missile defense review calls North Korea 'extraordinary threat' ó Trump, North Korea's Kim to hold second summit in late February ó Trump and Kim Jong-un to Hold Second Summit Meeting Next Month ó US Missile Defense Review says North Korea poses 'extraordinary threat' ó World War 3: Russia sets up NUCLEAR MISSILES near Ukraine border - Crimea crisis DEEPENS, ó Brookings experts react to the new Missile Defense Review ó China's tech, North Korea's nuclear weapons and Russia among major threats facing US, says intelligence report ó US imposes new sanctions against Iran-related militias, entities ó NATO, Russia fail to agree over missile breach, U.S. to quit treaty ó Small enough to use? 'Low yield' US nukes begin rolling off the production line ó Wylfa Newydd: Chancellor Philip Hammond 'hopeful' of nuclear plant deal, ó USA tells Russia and China to be more transparent in nuclear programmes ó U.S. Navy Nightmare: The Chinese Fleet Doesn't Have 300 Ships, It Has 650 ó U.S. secretly ships Cold War-era plutonium to Nevada ó US Calls for Compliance With Nuclear Treaties ó Russia and US FAIL to make progress in crunch nuclear weapon treaty talks

E. Russia ó Russia, US start consultations in Geneva on INF Treaty, ó US to begin INF Treaty withdrawal from February 2, Washington confirms ó Russia's nuclear-capable underwater drone to be deployed ó Russia takes wraps off new missile to try to save U.S. nuclear pact ó Russian, US senior diplomats to attend Beijing-hosted meeting of five key nuclear powers 3 Nuclear, Missile & Space Digest

ó Putin vows to launch first Russian-built nuclear plant in Turkey in 2023 ó Russia to work on keeping INF Treaty even if US withdraws from it - deputy FM ó Russia's Rosatom starts testing accident-tolerant fuel for nuclear power plants ó WW3 threat: Russia blasts US over low-yield warheads - 'Boosting risk of nuclear conflict', ó Longer range & powerful munitions: First Tu-160 bomber to join force in 2021 after makeover (VIDEO) ó Russia poses questions to 'Nuclear Five' on new US military doctrines

F. Japan ó TEPCO's refusal to settle money talks prompts center to bow out ó Koizumi says Japan must say 'no' to nuclear energy ó Hitachi reversal points to nuclear sector led by China and Russia ó Japan to press on with nuclear export drive after Hitachi blow ó Girl, 11, exposed to high radiation levels after 2011 nuclear disaster ó Nagasaki's educators changing perspective on A-bomb teachings ó Fukushima 'water crisis' continues, Greenpeace says ó Japanese government starts building sea wall for new U.S. base in Okinawa's Henoko ó Toshiba unveils robot to probe melted Fukushima nuclear fuel ó Alarm triggered at onetime nuclear fuel facility in Ibaraki after radioactive substances leaked ó IAEA Issues Final Report on Fourth Review of Fukushima Decommissioning

G. East Asia ó South Korea, US to seek UN sanctions exemption for inter-Korean project ó Spokesperson and Deputy Minister for Public Relations Noh Kyu-duk ó Outcome of Meeting between ROK and China's Top Negotiators on North Korean Nuclear Issue ó ROK and US Top Negotiators on North Korean Nuclear Issue Hold Telephone Consultation on Jan. 17 ó Sanctions relief key to moving denuclearization forward ó Seoul claims nuclear-free energy policy not the cause of high fine-dust levels ó Govt. to announce blueprint on nuke plant decommissioning in March ó N. Korea, U.S. end working-level talks in Sweden ó Outcome of ROK-Japan Foreign Ministerial Meeting Held on Occasion of Davos Forum 2019 ó Vice Foreign Minister Lee to Meet with Mexico's Undersecretary of Foreign Affairs Ventura ó S. Korea's chief nuclear envoy sees 'rapid progress' for future ó North Korean base serves as missile headquarters - think tank ó Pompeo expects 'good marker' with N. Korea by end-Feb. ó South Korea 'selective' in implementing sanctions on North: group ó ROK and Poland Hold 15th Policy Consultation ó Foreign Minister Attends Davos Forum 2019 ó North Korea may suggest shutdown of Yongbyon nuclear complex, international inspections: Foreign Minister Kang 4 Volume 11, Number 03 February 15, 2019

ó Foreign Minister Meets with her Brazilian Counterpart on Jan. 24 on Occasion of Davos Forum 2019 ó ROK-Iraq Foreign Ministers' Meeting Takes Place on Occasion of Davos Forum ó Foreign Minister Attends Closed-Door Meeting on Korean Peninsula's Future Held on Occasion of Davos Forum 2019 ó Foreign Minister Meets Bilaterally with her Canadian Counterpart on Occasion of Davos Forum 2019 ó S. Korea looks for Kim nuclear dismantling pledge at next Trump summit ó North Korea unlikely to give up nuclear weapons: U.S. spy chief Coats ó Missiles a priority, Tsai tells ministry ó N. Korea unlikely to give up nuclear arsenal: US intel chief

H. Iran ó EU Nations, Mogherini Not to Attend Washington's Anti-Iran Summit ó Danon Calls On U.N. To Take Action against Iranian Ballistic Missiles, ó Upcoming Mideast Conference in Warsaw Not Aimed at Demonizing Iran, U.S. Says ó EU's energy director shares relevance of renewables ó Iran's nuclear chief: We bought spares for nuke equipment we agreed to destroy ó Iran likely to step up cyber espionage ó Petraeus, Yadlin Disagree On Trump's Willingness To Attack Nuclear Iran ó Tehran rejects talks on its ballistic missile program ó Germany says EU soon to launch Iran funding scheme ó Iranian commander threatens Israel's destruction if it attacks: state TV ó Top intel chiefs break with Trump on Daesh, Iran, DPRK'

I. Saudi Arabia ó Can Saudi Arabia produce ballistic missiles? Satellite imagery raises suspicions ó Experts, images suggest a Saudi ballistic missile programme is in the works ó How Saudi Arabia's nuclear power will play a role against climate change

J. West Asia ó Terrorist attacks in Israel decrease sharply despite 3 deaths ó Secret Handwritten Memos Reveal How Israel's Nuclear Program Came to Be ó Netanyahu's Boasting Of Syria Strikes May Be A Preemptive Attack On Gantz, ó SIPRI report offers novel approaches to nuclear disarmament in the Middle East

K. South, South East and Central Asia ó Joint statement of the 22nd EU-ASEAN ministerial meeting, ó A resurgent Russia sets its sights on Asia, ó US donates $3.8 million in ground sensor radar equipment to Tajikistan, ó House OKs Nuclear Regulation Act 5 Nuclear, Missile & Space Digest

L. Misc/Global ó Nagasaki's educators changing perspective on A-bomb teachings ó China clones gene-edited monkeys ó World powers must start taking steps toward nuclear disarmament ó Five Nuclear-weapon States Hold a Formal Conference in Beijing

M. Op-eds/Reports ó What role does nuclear power play in UK and what are alternatives? ó EU failure to implement SPV could worsen current situation: Italian expert ó Signing of Asia Reassurance Initiative Act a welcome, well-timed move, ó There's good reason to fear Iran's global reach, ó The US 2019 Missile Defense Review: A View From Asia ó Saving NATO ó India and Pakistan need to engage ó Revitalizing Nuclear Security in an Era of Uncertainty, Harward Kennedy Centre ó EDITORIAL: New U.S. missile defense strategy could launch space arms race ó Hitachi debacle strengthens Franco-Chinese hand in UK nuclear ó Trump's space missile defense plan to keep eye on China, N. Korea ó Editorial: US should work with China, Russia for missile disarmament ó Tsai orders faster missile production ó US missile defense plan reveals illusion disguised as safety net ó Google's Nest camera hacked broadcasts hoax nuclear attack alert to terrified family ó Editorial: Why arms control won't work with North Korea or Iran ó Statement on the INF Treaty and Recommendations for Managing the Fallout of U.S. Withdrawal ó Leaving the INF Treaty Won't Help Trump Counter China ó Chinese-American Relations in Cyberspace: Toward Collaboration or Confrontation? ó The INF Quandary: Preventing a Nuclear Arms Race in Europe ó Why Is Nuclear Entanglement So Dangerous? ó IAEA Concludes Long-Term Operational Safety Review at Spain's Ascó and Vandellós Nuclear Power Plants ó Presidential Candidates Need a Plan for Reducing Nuclear Terrorism Risks ó Can the Pentagon Build a Bridge to the Tech Community? ó Missile Defense Review makes US less safe ó 2019 MISSILE DEFENSE REVIEW ó The War That Will Decide Israel's Future Won't Involve Airstrikes, Tanks or Missiles ó Can This New Approach to Nuclear Disarmament Work? 6 Volume 11, Number 03 February 15, 2019

India surveillance in North Andaman. Located in the northern most part of the islands, Sanction for increased maritime the airfield holds strategic importance not surveillance assets - 12 do Aircraft only for the security of the islands but also PIB Delhi, January 18, 2019 for its overall development. With the addition of this airfield, the Andaman & Govt of India has sanctioned this week, three Nicobar Command’s (ANC) ability to new Naval Air Squadrons to be setup in operate independently from all the regions Gujarat and Tamil Nadu. Besides this, the of the ANI will get a great boost. Basing of Central Government has also sanctioned an independent naval unit with the manpower towards manning additional requisite facilities and manpower will aircraft in existing Dornier Surveillance enhance overall operational capabilities of Squadrons in Kerala and Andaman Islands. ANC. It will open up the opportunity for It is pertinent to mention that the contract permanent basing of aircrafts at the Naval for procurement of 12 Dornier aircraft was Air Station. Presently, it provides detached signed with HAL (Kanpur) on 29 Dec 16 operations of smaller aircrafts of Indian with delivery commencing in Jan 19. This is Navy, and Coast Guard a substantial contract for the indigenous with an airstrip of 1000m length. INS HAL built Maritime Surveillance version of Kohassa will become the third Naval Air the Dornier 228 aircraft. Base in Andaman after INS Utkrosh at The new Dornier 228 aircraft being delivered and INS Baaz at Campbell Bay. under this contract are fitted with improved Post commissioning, the station will ‘state of the art’ sensors and equipment function as a base for joint operation of which includes glass cockpit, Advanced both military and civil aircraft in keeping Surveillance Radar, ELINT, Optical sensors with the UDAN scheme of the and networking features. The aircraft would government. As part of Phase II expansion enhance Maritime Domain Awareness of plan, the runway length would through round the clock sensor subsequently be extended to 3000m. This based surveillance and provide targeting will enable the operation of wide-bodied data in areas of operation to ward off terror civil and defence aircrafts in the future. and other threats from sea. This addition would further strengthen Indian Navy’s http://pib.nic.in/ efforts at Coastal Security of India’s vast PressReleseDetail.aspx?PRID=1560445 coastline of over seven thousand km.

http://pib.nic.in/ NSTL - ACADEMIA MEET (NAM PressReleseDetail.aspx?PRID=1560520 2019) @ NSTL PIB Delhi, January 19, 2019 Headquarters Andaman Nicobar Naval Science & Technological Laboratory Command ANC to enhance its (NSTL) organized the NSTL – Academia operational capability with the Meet (NAM 2019) at Mohapatra Manasi upcoming commissioning of INS Auditorium, NSTL on 19th January 2019. Kohassa PIB Delhi, January 18, 2019 With the theme “Artificial Intelligence for Naval Systems”, NAM 2019 provided the Naval Air Station (NAS) will be ideal platform for deliberation and commissioned as INS Kohassa on 24 Jan discussion on the topic of Artificial 19 by Sunil Lanba, PVSM, AVSM, Intelligence (AI) and its application to ADC, Chief of Naval Staff. INS Kohassa defence systems, with specific emphasis on has been named after a White- Bellied Sea naval systems. A galaxy of researchers and Eagle, which is a large bird of prey endemic faculty from 18 Universities, technologists to Andaman and Nicobar Islands (ANI). and system developers of six labs of the DRDO - NSTL, NMRL, CAIR, NPOL, NAS Shibpur was established in 2001 as a DMRL & DEAL actively participated in Forward Operating Air Base (FOAB) for 7 Nuclear, Missile & Space Digest

the meet and exchanged views and ideas in Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s visit to the Vibrant the exciting area of research - AI. Gujarat business summit in Gandhinagar, his second trip to India since October. After Speaking on the occasion, Dr OR Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan will become the Nandagopan, Outstanding Scientist and second Central Asian country to supply Director NSTL described the academic uranium to India. institutes as fountainheads of innovation, and expressed hope that NAM 2019 would Uzbekistan is the seventhlargest exporter help bridge the gap between academia and of uranium in the world, according to the R&D institutes and bring out a roadmap for World Nuclear Association, an futuristic research in respect of AI-enabled international organisation that represents naval systems. the global nuclear industry. India needs nuclear fuel as part of a plan to create a The Distinguished Guest at NAM 2019, Dr strategic uranium reserve that can sustain Samir V Kamath, Distinguished Scientist the country’s reactors for the next five and Director General (Naval Systems & years. The uranium is used primarily to Materials), DRDO, recalled the fuel its indigenously built pressurised contributions of academia the world over in heavy water reactors. India procures fostering a spirit of enquiry and harnessing enriched uranium from Russia for its two innovation and creativity to meet social and boiling water reactors at Tarapur in technological needs of the society at large. Maharashtra He opined that AI would play a major role in the battlefield of the future, and hoped https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/ that the participants would benefit defence/india-inks-deal-to-get-uranium-supply- immensely from the interaction. from-uzbekistan/articleshow/67596635.cms

The Chief Guest Prof G Nageswara Rao, ‘Having nuclear weapons makes a Vice Chancellor of Andhra University country stronger’ Times of India commended the initiative, calling it ‘timely January 20, 2019 and apt’, and exhorted researchers to give their creative best towards development of Energy security and climate change are ‘best in class naval systems’. The Keynote two of the greatest challenges of the 21st Address was delivered by Dr Anil Kumar century. India can hope to become a Agarwal, Director ER & IPR, DRDO, developed country only if the percapita followed by expert talks on various topics electricity consumption in the country goes of contemporary and futuristic relevance by up by at least six times, said Padma Technology Directors of NSTL, and Vibushan Rajagopala Chidabara He was Professors from Universities. Shri G Ravi speaking on the topic ‘India’s Nuclear Kumar, Technology Director NSTL and Programme – A model for developing Chairman NAM 2019, a large number of world’ in Panaji, on Saturday. researchers, scientists and academicians participated in NAM 2019 “India has single-handedly developed its nuclear technology and weapons without http://pib.nic.in/ spying or stealing knowledge from other PressReleseDetail.aspx?PRID=1560623 countries.” he said. Chidambaram also said that having nuclear weapons makes India inks deal to get uranium a country stronger as the weapons act as supply from Uzbekistan Dipanjan Roy a deterrent. Chidambaram further stressed on the need for low carbon dioxide Chaudhury, Economic Times, January 19, 2019 emission, we will probably still be burning India and Uzbekistan signed a deal for long- coal in the next 20 years, we had started a term supply of uranium from the resource project on advanced ultra-super critical rich Central Asian country to power its thermal plant where you take the steam domestic atomic reactors. The deal was temperature in a coal-based thermal plant signed on Friday during Uzbek President to more than 700 degrees. For the same 8 Volume 11, Number 03 February 15, 2019

amount of power/energy you emit relatively The exercise had commenced yesterday less carbon dioxide, which is the main morning and comprised two distinct greenhouse gas,” he said. phases. In the first phase, all stakeholders assessed the robustness of their own https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/goa/ organisations. During the second phase, having-nuclear-weapons-makes-a-country- simulated attacks were carried out on vital stronger/articleshow/67606831.cms installations and assets by infiltrating through the sea, in Kerala and Rosatom announces scholarships for Lakshadweep. The security agencies were Indian students in nuclear energy able to thwart attempts by the opposing studies The Indian Express, January 22, force to infiltrate onto the coast using 2019 (PTI) commandeered fishing boats. Response of agencies to other security contingencies The scholarships would include fully-funded such as hijacking of a ship and attack on tuition fees and partly-funded living offshore installations off Kochi Harbour expenses. The deadline for the first round was also assessed. All infiltration attempts of applications closes on February 15. will be analysed promptly to identify gaps in the multi-tier security layers at sea, close Rosatom, the Russian agency for atomic to the land and also in the hinterland in energy, has announced scholarships for close coordination with concerned Indian students in the arena of nuclear stakeholders. energy, according to a statement on Monday. Rosatom is the main equipment Sea Vigil that lasted for over two days, supplier for the Kudankulam Nuclear including the mobilisation phase, Power Project in Tamil Nadu. witnessed a high tempo of operations by all agencies and large-scale deployment of “The goal of the scholarship is to support forces. All operational centres of the Navy interest in nuclear research and capabilities and Coast Guard and control rooms of among young Indian scientists and Police and Kochi Port were fully activated engineers, and contribute to solving some of and exchanged information with each the world’s most critical issues in the nearest other. During the exercise, multi-agency future, allowing for the continent to be self- teams also evaluated the security set up sufficient,” said Rosatom South Asia CEO implemented by agencies including at Andrey Shevlyakov. fishing harbours, fish landing centres, https://indianexpress.com/article/education/study- police control rooms and ports amongst abroad/rosatom-announces-scholarships-for- others. indian-students-in-nuclear-energy-studies-russia- study-en-5549459/ http://pib.nic.in/ PressReleseDetail.aspx?PRID=1561201 Two-Day Coastal Defence Exercise Successful Flight Test of LRSAM “Sea Vigil” Concludes PIB Delhi, PIB Delhi, January 24, 2019 January 23, 2019 Ship launched Long Range Surface-to-Air The first coastal defence Exercise Sea Vigil, Missile (LRSAM) has been successfully test conducted by the Navy and Coast Guard, fired from INS Chennai against an in close coordination with State incoming aerial target flying at low Governments and Union Territories altitude,today. The missile destroyed the concluded today, 23 Jan 2019. It was the target with a direct hit. All the mission largest such exercise the country had ever objectives have been met. LRSAM has witnessed in recent times and saw been jointly developed by Defence participation by more than 100 ships, Research and Development Organisation aircraft and patrol boats manned and (DRDO), India and M/s Israel Aerospace operated by various security agencies. Industries (IAI), Israel for the Indian Navy. 9 Nuclear, Missile & Space Digest

Raksha Mantri Smt Nirmala Sitharaman INS Kohassa – a New Bird’s Nest congratulated DRDO, Indian Navy and in the Andamans PIB Delhi, January associated team members. 24, 2019

http://pib.nic.in/ Naval Air Station (NAS) Shibpur was PressReleseDetail.aspx?PRID=1561346 commissioned as INS Kohassa by Admiral Test and Certification Agency clears Sunil Lanba, PVSM, AVSM, ADC, Chairman COSC and Chief of the Naval Biojet fuel for Aircraft PIB Delhi, Staff today, on 24 Jan 19. The grand January 24, 2019 ceremony was attended by many On January 22, 2019, after months of dignitaries and senior officials including exhaustive ground and flight trials, the VAdm Bimal Verma, AVSM, ADC indigenous produced bio-fuel has been finally Commander-in-Chief, Andaman and cleared for use by the premier airworthiness Nicobar Command. The ceremony included certification agency of the country. presentation of Ceremonial Guard, hoisting of the Commissioning Pennant and In a meeting chaired by Mr Jaypal, reading of the Ship’s Warrant by the Outstanding Scientist and Chief Executive, Commanding Officer, Commander the Centre for Military Airworthiness and Kuldeep Tripathi. INS Kohassa has been Certification (CEMILAC) deliberated in named after a White-Bellied Sea Eagle, detail the results of various checks and tests which is a large bird of prey, endemic to conducted on bio-jet fuel as per procedure Andaman and Nicobar Islands. recommended by top national and international certification agencies. On being NAS Shibpur was established in 2001 as a completely satisfied with the performance Forward Operating Air Base (FOAB) for parameters, the agency has formally granted enhanced surveillance in North Andaman. its approval for use of this fuel, produced The close proximity of Coco Islands from non-conventional source i.e. non-edible (Myanmar) and wide expanse of Indian vegetable/ tree borne oil to be used on Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) makes the military aircraft. The bio-jet fuel has been base a very vital asset. The airfield provides sustained detached operations of Indian produced from seeds of Jatropha plant Navy, Indian Air Force and Coast Guard sourced from Chhattisgarh and processed at aircraft. The Air Station presently operates CSIR-IIP’s lab at Dehradun. This approval Short Range Maritime Reconnaissance enables the IAF to fulfil its commitment to (SRMR) aircraft and helicopters. These fly the maiden IAF An-32 aircraft on January aircraft undertake EEZ Surveillance, Anti- 26, 2019, with a blend of bio-jet fuel. Poaching Missions, Search and Rescue Any hardware or software which is to be (SAR) and Humanitarian Aid and used on Indian military aircraft, including Disaster Relief (HADR) missions within those operated by Indian Navy or Army has the ANC Area of Responsibility. As a point to be cleared for use by CEMILAC before of interest, during the search operations being inducted for regular use. This of the Malaysian Airlines Flight 370, clearance is a major step for continued Dornier DO 228s of the Navy and Coast testing and eventual full certification of the Guard operated from this very base. bio-jet fuel for use on a commercial scale by NAS Shibpur was identified by NITI Aayog civil aircraft as well. Increased demand of as one of the ‘Early Bird’ project as part of bio-jet fuel would give impetus to increase holistic island development. Towards this, in collection of tree-borne non-edible oil IN has been ready in all respects to facilitate seeds, which, in turn, will help generate civil flight operations from NAS Shibpur. ancillary income, increase remuneration for The runway extension to 10,000 ft is also tribal and marginal farmers, and enthuse planned in the near future to facilitate cultivation/ collection of oilseeds. operations of wide-bodied aircraft.

http://pib.nic.in/ http://pib.nic.in/ PressReleseDetail.aspx? PRID= 1561298 PressReleseDetail.aspx?PRID=1561266 10 Volume 11, Number 03 February 15, 2019

‘Kudankulam Nuclear Power Plant India and Pakistan prefer units I and II have generate 30,108 different kinds of war Hindustan million units electricity M K Ananth Times, January 28, 2019 Times of India January 26, 2019 In a press release on Thursday, Pakistan Units I and II in the Kudankulam Nuclear announced a successful “training launch” Power Plant (KKNPP) in Tirunelveli district of the short range, nuclear-capable Nasr have generated 30,180 million units of missile. A surface-to-surface missile, Nasr’s electricity since its inception, said range is a mere 60 kilometres. But, it is no distinguished scientist and executive director surprise that this launch follows so closely (C&MM) of the Nuclear Power Corporation on the heels of Indian Army chief Bipin of India Limited (NPCIL) TJ Kotteeswaran. Rawat’s announcement on reviving the idea of integrated battle groups (IBGs) to Kotteeswaran said that KKNPP Unit I launch a quick, conventional assault on which was that first power plant to generate Pakistan. IBGs are closely associated with four-digit electricity (1,000 Megawatt) and the Indian Army’s Cold Start doctrine that is the pride of the nation. Since the unit came about in the aftermath of the failure (KKNPP-I) was synchronized with the grid of Operation Parakram (2001-02). in October, 2013, it has generated 21,143 million units electricity. Its twin, KKNPP-II Essentially the tussle between India and which is India’s 22nd nuclear power reactor Pakistan is about fighting their favourite has raised contribution of nuclear power in wars. India is conventionally superior and the country to 6,780 MW,” he said. wants to confine its war with Pakistan within the conventional realm. Pakistan https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/madurai/ wants to keep the conflict either in the sub- kudankulam-nuclear-power-plant-units-i-and-ii- conventional realm (read terrorism) where have-generated-30108-million-units-electricity/ it enjoys the monopoly in this dyad, or articleshow/67702683.cms escalate it to the nuclear realm — where it has parity with India — bypassing a The golden era of UAE-India conventional war entirely. The Indian relations, Gulf News, January 26, 2019 Army evolved the Cold Start doctrine of a limited conventional war because it Relations between India and the UAE are realised that Pakistan’s nuclear weapons going through a golden era. They are at their best ever. The bilateral relationship has would not allow for a full-scale, matured and transformed into a conventional war. The doctrine was never comprehensive strategic partnership as both endorsed by the Government of India but countries continue to explore deeper it provided Pakistan with an excuse to cooperation in new areas. build short range, nuclear-capable missiles, like Nasr, to target Indian formations Energy sector ties have morphed into a undertaking conventional strikes. strategic partnership in energy security, with both countries investing in each other’s https://www.hindustantimes.com/editorials/ india-and-pakistan-prefer-different-kinds-of- energy sector. Both countries are also trying war/story-4MLXFOGTjOv1Sne4pdeCaP.html to move forward in nuclear energy cooperation by institutionalising cooperation with Emirates Nuclear Energy Corporation IAF Jaguar Fighter Aircraft and Federal Authority for Nuclear Regulation. Crashes PIB Delhi, January 28, 2019 An Indian Air Force Jaguar Fighter India and the UAE are also exploring the Aircraft crashed near Gorakhpur today at possibility of enhancing cooperation in 1240 hrs. The aircraft was on a routine renewable energy. mission and was airborne from Gorakhpur https://gulfnews.com/uae/the-golden-era-of-uae- at 1211 hrs. Aircraft crashed at india-relations-1.1548240539461 approximate distance of 46 Km east of 11 Nuclear, Missile & Space Digest

Gorakhpur. Pilot ejected safely. A court of Gsat-31 to replace dying sat Insat- Inquiry has been ordered to investigate the 4CR on Feb 6 Times of India cause of the accident. January 29, 2019 http://pib.nic.in/ Isro will get its communication satellite PressReleseDetail.aspx?PRID=1561710 Gsat-31 launched from French Guiana. The Isro chief told TOI “Arianespace will TVEL to supply fuel pellets for launch Gsat-31 on February 6. The satellite Tarapur World Nuclear News will replace Insat-4CR , whose life is January 28, 2019 expected to end soon.” Though Gsat-31 is not a heavy satellite (2,600kg), we are TVEL, the fuel manufacturer subsidiary of using the services of Arianespace as it is Russia’s Rosatom, has signed a contract with an emergency launch to replaced the India’s Department of Atomic Energy for dying Insat satellite so that communication supplies of uranium fuel pellets for the services are not affected. Gsat-31 satellite Tarapur boiling water reactors (BWRs). A can only be launched with GSLV Mk III. key component of nuclear fuel, a pellet “The next PSLV C45 mission will take consists of pressed-powder uranium dioxide place in March. It will carry a DRDO that has previously been enriched with the payload Anisat.” U-235 isotope. Such fuel pellets need to be further loaded into fuel rods. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/gsat- 31-to-replace-dying-sat-insat-4cr-on-feb-6/ The contract covers the supply this year of articleshow/67716467.cms “several dozen tonnes” of the pellets, which are to be produced by Elektrostal Machine- Amid Rafale row, PM Modi says Building Plant, a TVEL facility located in the defence projects pending for Moscow region. The nuclear fuel bundles for decades have materialised Economic the Tarapur units will be manufactured at the National Fuel Complex in Hyderabad, Times, January 29, 2019 in Telengana state. Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Monday said defence projects pending for decades TVEL has already fulfilled several similar related to fighter jets and modernisation contracts for the export of fuel pellets to have materialised on the ground under his India, including for pressurised heavy water government which will take all “big and reactors (PHWRs), Oleg Grigoriyev, senior tough” decisions that are necessary for the vice-president for commerce and country’s security in the coming days. international business at TVEL, noted. At a time when he has been facing attacks Commissioned in 1969, the Tarapur nuclear from the opposition over the Rafale fighter power plant, which is in Palghar district, in jet deal, Modi said, “Projects pending since Maharashtra state, was the first commercial decades related fighter aircraft and nuclear power plant in India. It consists of modernisation have materialised on the two 150 MWe BWRs and two 490 MWe ground. Missiles, tanks and helicopters are PHWRs. being made. Amid Rafale row, Modi says TVEL also supplies complete fuel bundles for def projects pending for decades have Russian-made VVER reactors at the two materialised, will take tough decisions that operating units of the Kudankulam nuclear are necessary for nation power plant, under a long-term contract New Delhi, Jan 28 (PTI) Prime Minister with Nuclear Power Corporation of India Narendra Modi on Monday said defence Limited. projects pending for decades related to http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/ fighter jets and modernisation have TVEL-to-supply-fuel-pellets-for-Tarapur materialised on the ground under his government which will take all “big and 12 Volume 11, Number 03 February 15, 2019

tough” decisions that are necessary for the air.” He went on to explain various facets country’s security in the coming days. of military modernisation to the young cadets, who are here as part of an annual https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/ NCC camp. defence/amid-rafale-row-pm-modi-says-defence- projects-pending-for-decades-have-materialised/ The completion of a deterrence patrol by articleshow/67727054.cms Arihant completed the nuclear triad. India already had the land-based ‘Agni’ series India and Maldives to Continue of nuclear-tipped missiles. Another Close Cooperation on Maritime version of N-tipped missiles can be fired Security and Counter-Terrorism PIB from air using fighter jets. At the NCC Delhi, January 29, 2019 event, the PM said while India was a supporter of peace, it would not hesitate India and Maldives held substantive from taking any steps to ensure its national discussions on further strengthening security. bilateral defence cooperation here today. Both side agreed that the two countries https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/nation/ would continue their traditionally close modi-boasts-of-nuclear-triad-for-second-time- cooperation on issues of maritime security, in-3-months/720278.html counter-terrorism and medical cooperation. Raksha Mantri Smt Nirmala Sitharaman Higher budget allocation for Space reiterated India’s commitment to contribute technology Department of Space, PIB towards capacity building and training Delhi, February 01, 2019 requirements of the Maldives National Defence Forces. While presenting the Interim Budget 2019- 20 in Parliament today, the Union Minister Earlier, Raksha Mantri received Maldivian for Finance, Corporate Affairs, Railways Defence Minister Ms Mariya Ahmed Didi & Coal, Shri Piyush Goyal said that at South Block here today who is in India seventh dimension of our vision for the on official bilateral visit.Chief of the Army next decade aims at the Outer Skies. Our Staff General BipinRawat, Chief of the Air space programme – Gaganyaan, India Staff Air Chief Marshal B S Dhanoa, Vice becoming the launch-pad of satellites for Chief of the Naval Staff Ajit the World and placing an Indian astronaut Kumar P and Additional Director General into space by 2022 reflect this dimension of the ShriVSR Murthy of our vision, the Minister said. call on the Maldivian Defence Minister. Given below is the budget allocation for http://pib.nic.in/ some major schemes of Department of PressReleseDetail.aspx?PRID=1561347 Space:

Modi boasts of nuclear triad for (Rs in crore) second time in 3 months Ajay Banerjee, Scheme 2017-18 2018-19 2018-19 2019-20 The Tribune, January 29, 2019 Actuals BE RE BE Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Monday Space 5,948 6,576 6,993 7,483 spoke about the nuclear triad for the second Technology time in three months, referring to India’s Space 1,540 1,746 1,595 1,885 ability to launch nuclear missiles or Applications weapons from land, air or under sea. INSAT 565 412 1,330 884 Speaking at a National Cadet Corps (NCC) Satellite event here, Modi said, “India has joined the Systems select global group of countries that can http://pib.nic.in/ launch nuclear attacks from water, land and PressReleseDetail.aspx?PRID=1562185 13 Nuclear, Missile & Space Digest

Pakistan Pakistan tests tactical nuclear missile against Indian ‘Cold Start’ Pakistan today successfully attack Ajai Shukla, Business Standard, conducted training launch of short January 24, 2019 range surface to surface ballistic missile “Nasr” to enhance the The Pakistan Army on Thursday operational efficiency of Army announced a successful “training launch” Strategic Forces Command besides of its short-range ballistic missile, “Nasr”, re-validating the desired technical which is believed to have a range of just 60 kilometres. This “tactical nuclear parameters Inter Services Personal weapon” (TNW) has been developed as Relations, January 24, 2019 the Pakistan Army’s weapon of last resort Pakistan today successfully conducted if a successful Indian “cold start” offensive training launch of short range surface to – a massed attack launched without surface ballistic missile “Nasr” to enhance lengthy mobilisation – rapidly advances the operational efficiency of Army Strategic into Pakistan, capturing territory and Forces Command besides re-validating the threatening vital cities and installations. desired technical parameters. This training The Nasr TNW, which would carry a exercise involved launching of quad salvo small-yield “sub-kilotonne” nuclear bomb, for desired effects. Nasr is a high precision, is not designed to cause widespread shoot and scoot Weapon System with the damage, in the manner of “city-buster” ability of in-flight maneuverability. This nuclear bombs of 20-kilotonnes and above. Weapon System has augmented Full Instead, it is intended to serve the dual Spectrum Deterrence posture remaining purpose of demonstrating Pakistan’s within the precincts of policy of Credible determination to protect its vital national Minimum Deterrence, against prevailing interests; and to provoke international and evolving threat spectrum more intervention to stop India. effectively including enemy’s ballistic missile defence and other Air Defence Systems. To avoid provoking a “massive” Indian The launch was witnessed by General Zubair retaliation, which New Delhi’s nuclear Mahmood Hayat, Chairman Joint Chiefs of doctrine mandates and which would Staff Committee, Director General Strategic involve demolishing several Pakistani Plans Division, Commander Army Strategic cities with large-yield nuclear weapons, Forces Command, Chairman NESCOM, Pakistan’s use of Nasr TNWs would aim senior officers from the Army Strategic Forces to minimise destruction and, therefore, Command, scientists and engineers of strategic provocation. Analysts believe Pakistan is organizations. Chairman JCS Committee unlikely to use the Nasr TNW on Indian appreciated the standard of training and territory, far less Indian cities. Instead, the operational preparedness of Army Strategic Nasr TNW is likely to be used on Indian Forces Command. He also congratulated the forces deep inside Pakistan territory. scientists and engineers on developing this The Nasr missile was first revealed after a sophisticated Weapon System to enhance test-firing in April 2011. The test programme Pakistan’s deterrence capability. He expressed is believed to have concluded in October his complete confidence in effective command, control and security of all strategic assets and 2013, after which the system is believed to measures being taken to augment these have entered service. Also called the Hatf- aspects. 9, the Nasr is believed to be derived from China’s Sichuan Aerospace Corporation’s President and Prime Minister of Pakistan and the WS-2 Weishi rocket system. Services Chiefs have also congratulated on successful conduct of the training launch. https://www.business-standard.com/article/ current-affairs/pakistan-tests-tactical-nuclear- https://ispr.gov.pk/press-release- missile-against-indian-cold-start-attack- detail.php?id=5173 119012401507_1.html 14 Volume 11, Number 03 February 15, 2019

Pakistan Conducts Test of Nuclear- General Rawat has now brought the idea Capable Nasr Missile Ankit Panda, The up front and centre. He is saying the IBGs Diplomat, January 26, 2019 will be war-gamed and physically tested by May. This could enhance the credibility A nuclear-capable system, the Nasr (Hatf- of the Cold Start doctrine. Playing exactly IX) is designed to deliver low-yield nuclear to the script, Pakistan is now flaunting weapons to a range of up to 70 km. Nasr. The use of Nasr carries a number of “Pakistan today successfully conducted risks like early use by on-field training launch of short range surface to commanders. Moreover, its use doesn’t surface ballistic missile ‘Nasr’ to enhance the guarantee that a large number of Indian operational efficiency of Army Strategic Army personnel can be taken out. Forces Command besides re-validating the However, deterrence is often in the desired technical parameters,” the Pakistani adversary’s mind. As long as Indian Army statement noted. leaders continue to be deterred by Nasr, it will continue to be effective. “This training exercise involved launching of quad salvo for desired effects. Nasr is a https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/424901- high precision, shoot and scoot Weapon nasar-s-launch-unnerved-indian-commanders System with the ability of in-flight maneuverability,” it added. The Nasr China “augmented Full Spectrum Deterrence posture remaining within the precincts of Foreign Ministry Spokesperson policy of Credible Minimum Deterrence, Hua Chunying’s Regular Press against prevailing and evolving threat Conference Ministry of Foreign Affairs spectrum more effectively including enemy’s People’s Republic of China, January 17, 2019 ballistic missile defense and other Air Defence Systems,” the Pakistani Army Q: Yesterday, a senior US administration statement noted. official said that the US will continue to rely on its nuclear deterrence https://thediplomat.com/2019/01/pakistan- capabilities to deter potential nuclear conducts-test-of-nuclear-capable-nasr-missile/ attacks from Russia and China because Russia and China have nuclear arsenals Nasr’s launch unnerved Indian of certain scale. I wonder if you have any commanders Muhammad Saleh Zaafir, comments on this? The News International, January 28, 2019 A: We keep hearing these news recently. Pakistan’s successful ‘training launch’ of On the one hand, the US has been short range, nuclear-capable Nasr missile demanding others to cut down on has frustrated the Indian Army Chief idea weapons. On the other hand, the US has of having integrated battle groups (IBGs) to been strengthening its arsenal of massive launch a quick, conventional assault on destructive power. This actually also Pakistan. reflects the double standards of the US side. We hope that the US, as a military The doctrine was never endorsed publicly superpower and one of the five permanent by the Indian government but it provided members of the UN Security Council, Pakistan justification for building short could work with other permanent range, nuclear-capable missiles, like Nasr, to members of the Security Council and make target Indian formations undertaking positive contributions to world peace and conventional strikes. India’s non-response to stability. 26/11 showed that either the Cold Start had not been operationalised or the Indian Army https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/ wasn’t confident of pulling off such strikes xwfw_665399/s2510_665401/2511_665403/ in a crisis situation. t1630327.shtml 15 Nuclear, Missile & Space Digest

Vice Foreign Minister Kong supplying equipment for the power plant Xuanyou Holds Talks with the ROK it hopes to build in Essex as it seeks to allay (Republic of Korea) Side on China- national security concerns about the ROK Relations and the Korean project. CGN is in discussions with the British engineering group over providing Peninsula Issue, Ministry of Foreign the control systems for the Hualong Affairs People’s Republic of China, HPR1000 reactors the Chinese group plans January 18, 2019 to install at Bradwell on the Essex coast. From January 17 to 18, 2019, Vice Foreign Regarded as the central nervous system of Minister and Special Representative of the a nuclear power plant, this technology not Chinese Government on the Korean only drives the operation of the reactor, Peninsula Affairs Kong Xuanyou met in but allows it to be safely shut down should Seoul with officials of the ROK (Republic of problems occur. Korea) side such as Vice Foreign Minister CGN has already made other concessions Cho Hyun and Special Representative for aimed at building trust. It has said that it Korean Peninsula Peace and Security Affairs would consider not operating the Bradwell Lee Do Hoon of the ROK respectively, nuclear power station after the plant’s exchanging views on China-ROK relations construction in order to deal with political and the Korean Peninsula issue. sensitivities. That is despite owning 66.5 Both sides expressed that they will further per cent of the project under the deal it reinforce political communication, enhance has struck with its partner, EDF of France. strategic mutual trust and make concerted Tom Greatrex, the chief executive of the efforts in pushing China-ROK strategic Nuclear Industries Association, welcomed cooperative partnership for constant and “CGN’s awareness of the sensitivities, and stable development in the new year. Both their absolute determination to deploy their sides believed that the current Korean reactors and fulfil all the regulatory and Peninsula situation is in a critical period. The other requirements that may be ROK and the Democratic People’s Republic necessary”. of Korea (DPRK) have actively interacted with each other and advanced reconciliation Peter Atherton, an industry expert at and cooperation, which is conducive to consultancy Cornwall Energy, said the promoting the political settlement process of lack of bidders left the government with a the Peninsula issue. Both sides supported the dilemma. DPRK and the United States in maintaining https://www.ft.com/content/4d2f2814-1b41- contact and dialogue, meeting each other 11e9-9e64-d150b3105d21 half way, and properly resolving respective concerns, so as to make active efforts in Chinese nuclear firm denies pushing forward the realization of the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula changing strategy in the UK to and establishing a peaceful mechanism on allay national concerns Global Times, the Korean Peninsula. Both the Chinese side January 22, 2019 and the ROK side will continuously play a China General Nuclear Power Corp due role in this regard. (CGN) on Tuesday denied rumors that it https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/wjbxw/ has been in talks with Rolls-Royce over t1631314.shtml supplying equipment for a nuclear power plant the Chinese company is building in Rolls-Royce in talks to supply the UK to allay national security concerns, Chinese nuclear plant in Essex saying it has not changed its strategies. “As of now, we have not changed our Jonathan Ford, Financial Times, January 21, 2019 development strategy in the three nuclear China’s largest state-backed nuclear power projects in the UK,” CGN said in a company is in talks with Rolls-Royce about statement to the Global Times. “We will 16 Volume 11, Number 03 February 15, 2019

push forward the construction of the Korea is what the US has been demanding projects with our partners.” but there’s no evidence that the North has accepted the proposal,” Handong CGN’s denial comes as more and more University professor Park Won-gon said. Chinese companies have become the subject Washington’s simultaneous incentives and of some foreign officials’ so-called national building of mutual trust must first take security concerns over Chinese firms and place to make Pyongyang relinquish investments in recent years, which, Chinese ICBMs. experts say, is a political move to contain China’s economic and technological rise. What North Korea offers now is to freeze The Financial Times reported on Monday its “current” nuclear weapons via that CGN was in discussions with the UK measures such as the closure of the firm about supplying the control systems for Youngbyon nuclear facilities and the the Hualong HPR1000 reactors, a concession dismantlement of its Punggye-ri nuclear from the Chinese firm, which has its own test site. “But it does not intend to put past control systems, that is aimed at easing nuclear weapons and ICBMs on the national security concerns in the UK. negotiating table,” Park said. He referred to Kim’s denuclearization pledges in his In its statement on Tuesday, CGN did not New Year’s address that North Korea had directly address the national security issue “declared at home and abroad that we but maintained that the company has would neither make and test nuclear always adhered to the principle of open and weapons any longer nor use and win-win cooperation. The company proliferate them.” confirmed that its subsidiary has signed a deal with Rolls-Royce to jointly provide US-North Korea talks have been revived instruments and control system solutions to following letters exchanged between “the global nuclear energy market.” Trump and Kim and high- and working- level negotiations in recent weeks. Some Records show that at least two CGN experts have said North Korea could have subsidiaries - Suzhou Nuclear Power suggested that it will transfer its ICBMs to Research Institute and China Techenergy Co China. “I guess transferring some ICBMs - have already signed two separate deals to China could have been one of the cards with Rolls-Royce about control system that Kim Jong-un holds to have another supply and development. It is unclear round of summit with Donald Trump,” whether these deals with Rolls-Royce were Lee Sang-soo, a research fellow at the the ones referred to in the CGN statement Institute for Security and Development in on Tuesday. “Rolls-Royce is one of many UK Sweden, said in an interview with Radio companies that provide the Hualong One Free Asia. project with services and support,” CGN said in the statement. A more realistic scenario might be North Korea offering to dismantle its ICBMs in http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/ the presence of outside inspectors. “The 1136700.shtml important thing is that the North talks about some, not all, of its missiles, and they Will North Korea transfer ICBMs to will be long-range missiles. Short- and mid- China? Park Han-na, Korea Herald January range missiles that cannot reach the US 24, 2019 will be excluded from their talks,” said Hong Hyun-ik, chief researcher at the North Korea may not be ready to bring its Sejong Institute. But if North Korea intercontinental ballistic missiles and the idea decided to transfer its long-range missiles of transferring its nuclear arsenal to China to China, the move would be highly to the negotiating table as bargaining chips welcomed by the US and China for in talks with the US, analysts here said promoting security cooperation in the Thursday. “Moving ICBMs out of North Northeast Asia region, he said. 17 Nuclear, Missile & Space Digest

In that case, the communist nation would We ranked the world’s nuclear follow a similar path as Ukraine, which arsenals - here’s why China’s removed all nuclear weapons from its soil came out on top Alex Lockie Business in exchange for assurances that Russia Insider, January 26, 2019 would respect its sovereignty. ”It would be a meaningful step to be hailed by the Of 9 nations that control the world’s international community as they did to 14,200 some odd nuclear weapons, Ukraine, if realized,” Hong said. Russia’s bombs could most easily end all life on earth. But a nuclear arsenal can’t http://www.koreaherald.com/ just be judged on how deadly it is. Nuclear view.php?ud=20190124000742&ACE_SEARCH=1 nations must be judged on their execution of nuclear projects, their safety and Ten Chinese SOEs selected to strive responsibility in nuclear enterprises, for “global excellence” goals Global whether or not they accomplish their Times January 25, 2019 nuclear missions, and the cohesiveness of their nuclear doctrine in addition to just China’s state-owned enterprises (SOEs) making things go “boom.” regulator has selected 10 SOEs to be the pioneers striving for goals of becoming top- Business Insider spoke to a nuclear ranking companies globally. These weapons expert and concluded that China companies include China Aerospace Science has the world’s best nuclear arsenal, and Technology Corporation, China though not nearly the biggest or most National Petroleum Corporation, State Grid ready to fight. The US, Russia’s main Corporation of China, China Three Gorges nuclear rival, had no answer for this Corporation, China Energy Investment weapon. No defenses in place can stop it, Corporation, China National Aviation no emergency response plans in place Holding Company, China Mobile address it, and no forthcoming projects to Communications Group, China State counter or neuter it. On the surface, the Construction Engineering Corporation, doomday torpedo represents unrivaled CRRC Corporation and China General capability of nuclear destruction, but a Nuclear Power Group. nuclear arsenal’s worth rests on many factors, not just its ability to kill. They are expected to improve their global competitiveness in products and services, Since then, nuclear weapons have taken technological development, efficiency, on a role as a deterrent. The US and financial performance and reputation, and Russia, Cold War rivals for decades, have achieve notable progress in about three not fought head-to-head since the dawn years. A raft of reforms such as mixed- of the nuclear era, owing at least in part ownership reform has reenergized China’s to fear that a conflict would escalate into SOEs, with 48 centrally-administered SOEs mutual, and then global destruction. making it into the Fortune Global 500 list last year. The State-owned Assets https://www.businessinsider.in/We-ranked-the- Supervision and Administration worlds-nuclear-arsenals-heres-why-Chinas- Commission of the State Council said it will came-out-on-top/Chinas-nuclear-arsenal/ adjust oversight over these pioneer firms and slideshow/67696626.cms streamline approval processes to build a nurturing environment. Missile launch shows China’s DF- 26 able to adjust position mid- http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/ flight, attack moving aircraft 1137037.shtml carriers: expert Liu Xuanzun, Global Times, January 27, 2019 Close-up details of the Chinese anti-ship ballistic missile DF-26 show that the missile 18 Volume 11, Number 03 February 15, 2019

can greatly adjust its position mid-flight to However, many foreign military experts accurately attack a moving aircraft carrier, and media doubted the missile’s capability experts said Sunday after China showed the to fulfill its claimed role. US media outlet launch of its new-generation missile for the CNN quoted Carl Schuster, a former US first time. Western media frequently question Navy , as saying in January that the DF-26’s ability to hit a moving vessel, no military has ever successfully developed saying China had never practiced attacking an anti-ship ballistic missile and using one such a target. The recent exercise would also require practice launches, demonstrated the missile’s capability, which China has shown no evidence of experts said. People’s Liberation Army (PLA) having done. The recent exercise is an Rocket Force conducted a live-fire exercise example of practiced launches, said somewhere in Northwest China featuring Song. The DF-26 is said to have an effective the launch of two DF-26 intermediate-range range of 4,500 kilometers, and could reach ballistic missiles, China Central Television US naval bases in Guam in the western (CCTV) reported on Thursday. Pacific, china.com reported.

The nose of the missile has a double-cone http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/ structure with four fin-like flight control 1137152.shtml surfaces symmetrically built around the base of the warhead, the CCTV report shows. US 1,000-mile range ‘supergun’ This is the first time the launch of a DF-26 may be a de facto intermediate- missile and detailed images of its range ballistic missile: analysts Liu appearance have been made public. Song Xuanzun and Wei Yunfeng, Global Times, Zhongping, a military expert and TV January 29, 2019 commentator, told the Global Times on Sunday that the special design enables the The US development of a 1,000-mile range missile to accurately control the attack “supergun” which it claims to be able to trajectory, as the four flight control surfaces engage the Chinese military in the South provide super maneuverability and guide the China Sea could be a cover for an anti- warhead during the terminal stage to hit a ship intermediate-range ballistic missile, slow-moving aircraft carrier. Song, who since such a weapon would break the used to serve in the Second Artillery Corps Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (now the Rocket Force) of the PLA, said the (INF Treaty) which the US is trying to double-cone structure provides the missile withdraw from, Chinese experts said. with increased targeting capability, speed, and stealth, making it more difficult to The experts’ remarks came after the US intercept. Army claimed last week to be developing a “supergun” capable of engaging Chinese “An information network connected to the naval vessels in the South China Sea from warhead, which possibly includes satellites, 1,000 miles (1,610 kilometers) away. The ground and naval radar in addition to radar weapon could “open the door” for the US on the missile itself, will constantly update Navy and Marines in the South China Sea the location of a moving target, informing if Chinese naval vessels are in the way, flight control where to guide the missile,” a according to US Military Secretary Mark Beijing-based military expert who requested Esper, US media outlet the National anonymity told the Global Times on Sunday. Interest reported Friday. Already in service with the PLA Rocket Force, the DF-26 can carry conventional or “You want to be outside the range that nuclear warheads and is capable of they can hit you,” Esper said, boasting of launching precision strikes on land targets the tremendous range the “supergun” or medium and large vessels at sea, said could cover. A Chinese military expert Chinese Ministry of Nationalwho asked not to be named told the Global Defense spokesperson Wu Qian at a routine Times that cannons have a range of no press conference in April 2018. more than 100 kilometers. Even the 19 Nuclear, Missile & Space Digest

electromagnetic railgun the US is developing in the 5G race if governments ban Chinese has a range no more than 300 kilometers. equipment supplier Huawei over security So the 1,000-mile “extended-range cannon fears. Removing Huawei from the list of artillery” Esper said is most likely a long- suppliers of 5G networks would delay range missile, according to the anonymous rollout of the technology by at least two expert. As technology advances, a long- years and cost Europe’s telecom industry range missile has little difference with a many billions of euros, Deutsche Telekom missile, and a missile capable of reaching said. As the US is launching a crackdown 1,000 miles is considered an intermediate- on Huawei and piling up pressure on range missile, and thus violates the INF foreign allies to ditch network services Treaty, the expert said. This is why the US from the Chinese company, Germany and calls the weapon a cannon. other European governments have been urged to block Huawei hardware from http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/ being used in 5G networks. 1137291.shtml Worries are rising that the US campaign Iran worried over delay in Chinese will lead to a split in the high-tech world, nuclear reactor redesign AP News, which might have a far-reaching impact January 30, 2019 on international relations. During the Cold War, the world was divided into two TEHRAN, Iran (AP) — Tehran says that camps. The delicate balance of power built China has slowed down working on its on nuclear deterrence shrouded the world redesign of a heavy water reactor in Iran, in great uncertainty. By excluding Huawei following the U.S. withdrawal from from the Western technological world, the Tehran’s nuclear agreement with world US is waging a technology “cold war” powers. against China, which eventually will also divide the world. Ali Akbar Salehi, head of Iran’s nuclear agency, was quoted by state-run news 5G technology will play a key role in agency IRNA as saying that “the Chinese people’s future life. It will affect all aspects side decreased the speed of cooperation with of life. But imagine what the world would us despite their commitments.” He says Iran look like if there were two 5G worlds has “alternative” choices if China cannot not respectively led by China and the US: fulfil its job. Salehi speculates that Beijing There would be arbitrary competition, fears possible sanctions by the U.S. if it with one attempting to elbow out the other continues cooperation with Iran but did not in the international market. China doesn’t elaborate further. Under the 2015 nuclear want to see such a worst-case scenario. agreement, experts from the United States Unfortunately, the US is politicizing the and China were to help Iran redesign the technological development and in Arak heavy water nuclear reactor to limit disregard of its allies’ interests, it has the amount of plutonium it produces as a pressured them to turn on Chinese tech byproduct. companies. China is not viewed as a strategic rival by the European countries. https://apnews.com/ Given the gigantic commercial interests ed2b765ac2314de4a7065dec37fbd1ca between China and the European countries in 5G cooperation and other Will US tech cold war against fields, it’s more in the interests of the China’s 5G split world? Yu Jincui European countries to maintain a sound Global Times, January 31, 2019 relationship with China than following the US to technologically contain China. According to Bloomberg Tuesday, German telecoms company Deutsche Telekom The US is trying to strangle China’s high- warned in an internal assessment that tech development by kidnapping its allies’ Europe would fall behind the US and China interests in a technology cold war. This is 20 Volume 11, Number 03 February 15, 2019

impossible. The biggest difference between 2020, Geng added. The conference in 2020 5G technology and nuclear weapons is that will seek reform to solve some recent the former is used to promote problems and disputes, including the INF communication and integration while the Treaty issue between Russia and the US, latter is for deterrence.Technological nuclear issues in the Korean integration is the trend of the times. It not Peninsula and the Iranian nuclear deal, Xu only helps promote communication among Guangyu, a senior consultant at the China states and peoples, but also propels Arms Control and Disarmament globalization and the improvement of Association and a participant of open international relations. The US efforts to activities at the P5 Conference, told the divide 5G technology and contain China will Global Times on Thursday. hinder global development and are doomed to fail. At a time when the world turns http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/ increasingly multipolar, the US can no 1137745.shtml longer dominate international relations as arbitrarily as before. China urges non-nuke states to join NPT Zhao Yusha and Yang Sheng http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/ Global Times January 31, 2019 1137713.shtml China called on countries that have not P5 agree to protect nuke treaty Global yet joined the Treaty on the Non- Times, January 31, 2019 Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) to join as non-nuclear-weapon states as China, as the host of the meeting in Beijing soon as possible, China’s Foreign Ministry among the five nuclear weapon countries, said in response to questions on India’s said that it will continue to promote application to the NPT treaty. The consensus-building among the major powers comment was given by Geng Shuang, and replace confrontation with spokesperson of China’s Foreign Ministry coordination, while Russia and the US failed at a Thursday briefing, when asked if the to reach an agreement on the Intermediate- meeting of five nuclear weapon states Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. The five talked about the possibility of India joining recognized nuclear weapon states in the the NPT and Nuclear Suppliers Group Treaty on the (NPT), China, Russia, the US, (NSG). There has not been a precedent for the UK and France (also the five permanent a non-NPT country to join the Nuclear members of the UN Security Council), Supplier Group (NSG), so if India wants concluded their meeting, also known as the to join the NSG, it requires sufficient P5 Conference, in Beijing on Thursday. negotiation among NSG members and a consensus among them to reach a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson resolution to the issue, said Geng. Geng Shuang made the remarks urging coordination and strategic dialogue between Xu Guangyu, a senior consultant at the nuclear weapon states after the P5 China Arms Control and Disarmament Conference at the daily routine press Association and a participant of open conference. The five nuclear-armed states activities at the P5 Conference on reached an agreement at the P5 Conference Thursday, told the Global Times on in Beijing to jointly safeguard the mechanism Thursday that “It is impossible for China, of the NPT and will try their best to solve as well as the other four recognized non-proliferation issues through political nuclear weapon countries in the NPT, to and diplomatic means, said Geng. recognize a new nuclear weapon country, because this would cause serious nuclear The five nuclear weapon states agreed to proliferation and global security would be keep strategic dialogue to enhance greatly damaged.” It is very hard to coordination of the NPT agenda, to realize resolve India’s intention to join the NPT a successful NPT Review Conference in and NSG, because India has already 21 Nuclear, Missile & Space Digest

developed nuclear weapons, so it is unlikely objectively view each other’s strategic to make New Delhi abandon its nuclear intentions, enhance exchanges in nuclear weapons, and its neighbor Pakistan also has policies and strategies, strengthen strategic the same problem, Xu noted. mutual trust and safeguard common security. India has been blaming China for blocking it from the NSG, but aside from China, many Second, the five states pledged to jointly NSG members, including Brazil, Austria, uphold the NPT mechanism. They New Zealand, Ireland and Turkey are also emphasized that the NPT is the opposed to India’s bid, citing the fact that cornerstone of the international nuclear India has not signed the NPT. The non-proliferation regime and an important conference between five nuclear weapon component of the international security states kicked off in Beijing. China, France, architecture. They committed themselves Russia, the UK and the US, as the five to fully implementing the NPT in its nuclear weapon states, expressed readiness entirety, progressively achieving the goal to enhance coordination, manage of a nuclear-weapon free world, doing differences and jointly deal with threats to their utmost to resolve the nuclear non- international security, Geng said. For years, proliferation issue through political and India has been trying to join the NSG, but diplomatic means, and promoting since its foundation in 1975, all NSG international cooperation in peaceful uses members shall be NPT signatories. This has of nuclear energy. become the primary principle of the organization. China proposed in 2016 to Third, the five states pledged to continue allow non-NPT signatories to become NSG to make full use of their cooperation members and discuss country-specific platform to maintain dialogue and applications. coordination. They agreed to maintain strategic dialogue and strengthen http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/ coordination in the NPT review process for 1137736.shtml a successful 2020 review conference. The five countries will also actively promote Foreign Ministry Spokesperson open and constructive dialogues within the Geng Shuang’s Regular Press international community, such as the Conference Ministry of Foreign Affairs dialogue session held this morning in Beijing with international academic People’s Republic of China, January 31, 2019 institutions, media and embassy officials Q: The conference of the five nuclear- from some non-nuclear states. weapon states in Beijing has caught much attention. Could you provide some Against the background of rising information? Is China satisfied with the instability and uncertainty in the outcome of the conference? international security landscape, major country relations and responsibilities of A: The conference of the five nuclear- major countries are receiving more and weapon states was concluded successfully more attention. The five states, in sitting in Beijing. China has issued a press release down for face-to-face exchanges and in- on it. Here I would like to highlight the three depth discussions of urgent issues related important consensus reached at the meeting. to strategic security and reaching the above- mentioned consensus, demonstrated a First, the five states pledged their shared positive attitude in dealing with responsibility to world peace and security. international security challenges through Recognizing the severe challenges to the coordination and cooperation. It will help current international security environment enhance the international community’s and the vital role of maintaining sound major confidence in the international security country relations in resolving strategic environment. The positive outcomes were global issues, the five countries agreed to acclaimed by all parties to the meeting. 22 Volume 11, Number 03 February 15, 2019

As the rotating coordinator for the relevant issue has not changed. What I just cooperation mechanism of the five nuclear- said is that we call on non-NPT countries weapon states, China will continue its efforts to join the treaty as non-nuclear weapon to help build consensus and manage states as soon as possible. This is our differences among the five countries and consistent position. replace major power competition with coordination and zero-sum game with win- As for India’s application to join the NSG, win cooperation, to contribute to world our position on that has not changed peace and stability. either.

Q: Yesterday you outlined China’s stand Q: Follow-up: What should a country like on the NPT, and today about the P5 India do to join the NSG, despite the fact Conference you said that the NPT that they have overwhelming support mechanism will be upheld. So was there from the NSG and outside? Is China still any discussion related to the application adhering to the two-step approach? of India to join the NPT? And was there A: We call on non-NPT countries to join any discussion about non-NPT members the treaty as non-nuclear weapon states being given preference based on their as soon as possible. This is our consistent record of non-proliferation? position. A: Like I just said, the five nuclear-weapon As for India’s application to join the NSG, states pledged to jointly uphold the NPT we have said before that there is no mechanism. They emphasized that the NPT precedent for a non-NPT country applying is the cornerstone of the international to join the NSG. Therefore, we maintain nuclear non-proliferation regime and an that the NSG members should have important component of the international consultations with plenty of patience and security architecture. They committed seek to resolve this issue based on themselves to fully implementing the NPT consensus. in its entirety, progressively achieving the goal of a nuclear-weapon free world, doing https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/ their utmost to resolve the nuclear non- xwfw_665399/s2510_665401/2511_665403/ proliferation issue through political and t1634507.shtml diplomatic means, and promoting international cooperation in peaceful uses USA of nuclear energy. Hours after U.S. troops killed in You asked about accession to the Syria, Pence says Islamic State NPT, China’s position is that we call on non- defeated Lesley Wroughton Reuters, NPT countries to join the treaty as non- January 17, 2019 nuclear weapon states as soon as possible. Despite talks of a second leaders’ summit Q: Again, to follow up on the P5 between Trump and North Korea’s leader discussions on the NPT. Regarding China’s Kim Jong Un, Pence acknowledged that position on the entry of India into the efforts to convince Pyonyang to give up its Nuclear Suppliers’ Group, China nuclear arsenal had not made headway. suggested a two-step approach for relevant countries to come to an agreement. Now “While the president is promising dialogue you seemed to suggest that non-NPT with Chairman Kim we still await concrete members have to necessarily sign the steps by North Korea to dismantle the treaty to enter the NSG. Is there a change nuclear weapons that threaten our people in China’s stand? Or do you still stick to and our allies in the region,” he said. the two-step approach? He acknowledged that Trump’s foreign A: I don’t want to cause any policy was “different from what the world misunderstanding. China’s position on the has come to expect” and that the United 23 Nuclear, Missile & Space Digest

States faced different threats than during in which China has made major advances the Cold War. and Russia is actively working.

“Today we are not up against one super https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-defense- power but several great powers competing missiles/trump-missile-defense-review-calls- with us for preeminence across the world,” north-korea-extraordinary-threat- he said, saying the United States faced a idUSKCN1PB04V “wolf pack” of rogue states including Iran, Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua. Trump, North Korea’s Kim to hold second summit in late February https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-pence- David Brunnstrom, Matt Spetalnick, diplomacy/hours-after-us-troops-killed-in-syria- Reuters, January 18, 2019 pence-says-islamic-state-defeated- idUSKCN1PA2L3 U.S. President Donald Trump will hold a second summit with North Korean leader Trump missile defense review calls Kim Jong Un in late February but will North Korea ‘extraordinary threat’ maintain economic sanctions on Phil Stewart, Reuters, January 17, 2019 Pyongyang, the White House said on Friday after Trump met Pyongyang’s top President Donald Trump unveiled a nuclear negotiator. revamped U.S. missile defense strategy that called North Korea an ongoing and The announcement came amid a “extraordinary threat,” seven months after diplomatic flurry in Washington he declared the threat posed by Pyongyang surrounding the visit of Kim Yong Chol, a had been eliminated. The plan, which also hardline former spy chief, and marked a detailed concerns about the burgeoning sign of movement in a denuclearisation capabilities of Iran, Russia and China, called effort that has stalled since a landmark for developing space-based sensors to detect meeting between Trump and the North incoming enemy missiles and exploring Korean leader in Singapore on June 12. space-based weapons to shoot down missiles among other steps to shield the United A senior U.S. administration official said States. there was an exchange of letters for the leaders during the White House meeting, The open acknowledgment in the Missile but gave no details of their content. On Defense Review of U.S. plans to counter his last visit to Washington in June, Kim Russian and Chinese technological advances Yong Chol delivered a letter from Kim Jong likely will alarm those nations. It marked a Un to Trump that helped overcome departure from the approach taken by obstacles ahead of the summit in Republican Trump’s Democratic Singapore. Kim Yong Chol, regarded as a predecessor, Barack Obama, to tamp down member of Kim Jong Un’s inner circle, also concerns by major nuclear powers about had talks with Secretary of State Mike expanding U.S. missile defenses. Pompeo and U.S. special representative on North Korea, Stephen Biegun. The Missile Defense Review recommended studying experimental technologies https://in.reuters.com/article/northkorea-usa/ including space-based weaponry that might trump-north-koreas-kim-to-hold-second- be able to shoot down enemy missiles, a summit-in-late-february-idINKCN1PC0DP throwback to former President Ronald Reagan’s 1980s “Star Wars” initiative. It Trump and Kim Jong-un to Hold called for investments in space-based Second Summit Meeting Next sensors that can better detect and track Month Mark Landler and David E. incoming missiles, and perhaps counter Sanger, New York Times, January. 18, 2019 super-fast hypersonic technology, an area President Trump will meet with North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, in late 24 Volume 11, Number 03 February 15, 2019

February, the White House announced, The thawing of the US relationship with renewing a high-level diplomatic dialogue North Korea, but stressed that the that has eased tensions with a rogue nuclear communist regime is still a threat due to state but has shown no progress in its past investment in nuclear and ballistic eliminating its nuclear arsenal. A White missile programs. ”While a possible new House official said the date and the location avenue to peace now exists with North of the meeting would be announced later, Korea, it continues to pose an suggesting either that the Trump extraordinary threat and the United States administration was seeking concessions from must remain vigilant,” the report said. the North Koreans before Mr. Trump “These wide-ranging North Korean committed to the meeting or that the two offensive missile systems have given North sides were still haggling over the site and Korea the capability to strike US territories, other logistical details. Vietnam, Thailand including Guam, US forces abroad, and and Hawaii have all been mentioned as allies in the Pacific Ocean.” Explaining that potential settings. the communist state had continually invested resources in its nuclear and The United States, she said, will keep ballistic missiles programs to threaten the sanctions against North Korea in place until US homeland, the report said the time was Mr. Kim agrees to surrender his arsenal. She approaching when it could credibly do so. added that the North had shown “good faith” in releasing imprisoned Americans. The Defense Department’s report came out Still, the very fact that Mr. Trump agreed to on the same day that Kim Yong-chol, a second meeting with Mr. Kim — after North Korea’s chief nuclear envoy and North Korea’s failure to begin dismantling vice chairman of its ruling Workers’ Party its arsenal following their first meeting in Central Committee, arrived in Washington Singapore last June — is a sign of how to negotiate a second summit between the quickly the president has backed away from leaders of the two countries. Kim is his initial insistence on swift disarmament expected to meet with US Secretary of by Pyongyang. State Mike Pompeo on Friday. He is also likely to meet with Trump.Listing North https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/18/us/politics/ Korea, Iran, Russia and China as the trump-kim-summit.html countries that pose security threats, the Missile Defense Review highlighted the US Missile Defense Review says need to expand advanced defense North Korea poses ‘extraordinary technology in space. threat’ Jo He rim, Korea Herald, Jan 18, http://www.koreaherald.com/ 2019 view.php?ud=20190118000421&ACE_SEARCH=1 North Korea poses an “extraordinary threat” to the United States and its allies, World War 3: Russia sets up and the US should remain “vigilant,” a US NUCLEAR MISSILES near Pentagon report said on Thursday (US Ukraine border – Crimea crisis time).The US Department of Defense DEEPENS, Joe Gamp, Express, unveiled its new defense strategy in the 2019 January 20, 2019 Missile Defense Review, highlighting the need to add new technologies to the space- Satellite imagery released by ImageSat based missile defense system in order to International show what appears to be protect the country from external short range and nuclear-capable Iskander threats.The report is the first Missile Defense ballistic missiles stationed in Krasnodar, Review to be released since US President around 270 miles south east of the Donald Trump came to office in 2017. The Ukrainian border. The new images show Defense Department published the Ballistic a missile compound and several bunkers Missile Defense Review in 2010, under the as well as a second compound nearby An Barack Obama administration. Iskander missile launcher is stationed next 25 Nuclear, Missile & Space Digest

to a transloader vehicle, which is used to remarkable and surprising restraint since load fresh ammunition into the launcher. the June summit by stopping nuclear and missile testing. Whether it has stopped The imaging company claimed the set up production of missiles and nuclear could be construed as a “signal from Russia warheads is another question. to the US”, Fox News reports. Another similar drill was held at an Iskander site Robert Einhorn, Senior Fellow, Center for near the Siberian city of Ulan-Ude, 21st Century Security and Intelligence, according to further imagery. Iskander Arms Control and Non-Proliferation missiles have a range of up to 310 miles, with Initiative: The rollout of the Trump the Donbass region of east Ukraine within administration’s MDR on January 17 left distance of the missile. U.S. allies and potential adversaries—and the American public—with what has Pro-Russian militants have been fighting become a familiar question: Should we government forces near the Russian border listen to the president or the professionals since 2014 in an effort to establish an who work for him? The Pentagon-drafted independent state, while Russian forces have MDR succinctly outlines a key element of given military support to fighters. It follows missile defense policy: news in January this year that Washington ordered Moscow to scrap a controversial “U.S. missile defense capabilities will be missile project if it wants to salvage the sized to provide continuing effective Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) protection of the U.S. homeland against Treaty, which the two countries signed in rogue states’ offensive missile threats. The 1987. United States relies on nuclear deterrence to address the large and more Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev sophisticated Russian and Chinese told Russian newspaper Rossiyskaya intercontinental ballistic missile capabilities. Gazeta: “The Kiev authorities are doing everything to split Ukraine, implementing Steven Pifer (@steven_pifer), Nonresident the West’s scenario for separating Ukraine Senior Fellow, Center for 21st Century from Russia, while ignoring the interests of Security and Intelligence, Arms Control their own people. and Non-Proliferation Initiative: The MDR outlines a far more incremental approach https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1074935/ to missile defense than President Trump’s world-war-3-crimea-crisis-russia-ukraine-border- suggestion that U.S. defenses be able to nuclear-missiles destroy any missile launched against the United States “anywhere, any time, any Brookings experts react to the new place.” Missile Defense Review Madelyn R. https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from- Creedon, Robert Einhorn, Steven Pifer, Frank chaos/2019/01/22/brookings-experts-react-to- A. Rose, and Strobe Talbott, Brookings the-new-missile-defense-strategy/ January 22, 2019 The Trump administration released its China’s tech, North Korea’s congressionally-mandated Missile Defense nuclear weapons and Russia Review (MDR). Below, five Brookings among major threats facing US, experts on defense offer their key takeaways says intelligence report South China on the document. Madelyn Creedon Morning Post, January 23, 2019 (@mrc5920), Nonresident Senior Fellow, Security and Strategy: The recently released China is making technological advances MDR reintroduces the concept of rogue in a far shorter time frame than it took the nations and defines them as Iran and North United States, quickly narrowing the gap Korea. And yet Iran negotiated an between the two countries, a senior US agreement to denuclearize, to which it is official said on Tuesday amid the release abiding, and North Korea has demonstrated of a national intelligence strategy. Reaping 26 Volume 11, Number 03 February 15, 2019

the benefits of sending tens of thousands of a statement. According to the statement, students and researchers to the United all property and interests in property of States, and a determined policy to buy and these entities that are in the United States steal US technology, Beijing has or in the possession or control of “compressed the time frame” for catching Americans are blocked, and Americans up and now has “remarkable” capabilities, are generally prohibited from engaging in the intelligence official said on condition of transactions with them. Washington has anonymity. reimposed comprehensive sanctions against Tehran since U.S. withdrawal The issue of China’s technological from the 2015 Iranian nuclear deal last advancement and modernising military and May, seeking to curtail “Iran’s malign Russia’s efforts to expand its influence were influence across the region. “ among the challenges for the United States raised in the new US National Intelligence In an international conference held in Strategy. Senior intelligence officials at the Tehran last December, Iranian President strategy’s unveiling did not address Hassan Rouhani criticized the U.S. moves statements from President Donald Trump to exert sanctions on Iran as the “economic dismissing intelligence findings. Trump has terrorism.” “We are here to voice that if expressed disregard for key intelligence the United States thinks that it can divide findings regarding Russian influence in the us, then it is making a grave mistake,” 2016 election and Saudi Arabia’s role in the Rouhani stressed. killing of writer Jamal Khashoggi. http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/ https://www.scmp.com/news/world/united-states- 1136983.shtml canada/article/2183241/latest-us-spy-report-cites- russia-china-and-iran NATO, Russia fail to agree over missile breach, U.S. to quit treaty US imposes new sanctions against Robin Emmott, Vladimir Soldatkin, Iran-related militias, entities Global Reuters, January 25, 2019 Times January 25, 2019 NATO and Russia failed on Friday to The U.S. Department of the Treasury resolve a dispute over a new Russian announced Thursday that the United States missile that Western allies say is a threat had imposed sanctions against two Syria- to Europe, bringing closer Washington’s based, Iran-backed militias and two aviation withdrawal from a landmark arms control entities linked to Iranian airline Mahan Air. treaty. At a meeting of the NATO-Russia The Treasury accused that the fighters of the Council in Brussels, envoys from NATO’s two Syria-based militias, mostly Afghan and 29 members renewed their call on Moscow’s Pakistani refugees and migrants residing in deputy foreign minister to destroy a nuclear- Iran, are recruited by Iran’s Islamic Revolution capable cruise missile system before Guards Corps (IRGC). The Treasury also One NATO diplomat said the U.S. targeted Qeshm Fars Air and an Armenia- ambassador to the alliance told the based Flight Travel LLC. The United States assembled diplomats and officials that believes the two entities have a close Washington would start the pull-out connection with the designated Iranian process from the INF on Feb. 2. The U.S. airline Mahan Air, which supports the Quds embassy was not immediately available Forces of the IRGC and its proxies in Syria by for comment. Russian Deputy Foreign transporting personnel and weapons. Minister Sergei Ryabkov told the closed- “Treasury’s targeting of Iran-backed militias door meeting that it was the United States and other foreign proxies is part of our that was breaching the treaty, alliance ongoing pressure campaign to shut down diplomats said. the illicit networks the regime uses to export https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-nuclear/ terrorism and unrest across the globe,” nato-russia-fail-to-agree-over-missile-breach-u- Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said in s-to-quit-treaty-idUSKCN1PJ14N 27 Nuclear, Missile & Space Digest

Small enough to use? ‘Low yield’ US Wylfa Newydd: Chancellor Philip nukes begin rolling off the Hammond ‘hopeful’ of nuclear production line South China Morning plant deal BBC News 29 January 2019 Post, January 28, 2019 Japanese firm Hitachi cited rising costs for The US has begun making new, low-yield halting work on the £13bn plant at Wylfa nuclear warheads for its Trident missiles Newydd, Anglesey. It had been in talks that arms control advocates warn could with the UK government since June about lower the threshold for a nuclear conflict. funding for the project, which was being The National Nuclear Security built by its Horizon subsidiary. Mr Administration (NNSA) announced in an Hammond said an alternative model was email it had started manufacturing the being worked on. “Obviously we are weapon at its Pantex nuclear weapons plant disappointed by the decision of Hitachi to in Texas, as ordered by Donald Trump’s suspend work on the Wylfa project, but nuclear posture review (NPR) last year. we haven’t given up hope,” he told the House of Commons. Low-yield weapons “help ensure that potential adversaries perceive no possible “They retain the site and we hope that the advantage in limited nuclear escalation, work that we’re doing on a possible making nuclear employment less likely”, the alternative financing model may yet allow 2018 nuclear posture review insisted. Critics the project to go ahead.” The decision by say that is an optimistic scenario that Hitachi has put the creation of thousands assumes there will be no miscalculation on of jobs at risk. About 9,000 workers had the US side. The nuclear weapons budget is been expected to be involved in building likely to be an important battlefield in the the two nuclear reactors, which were due struggle between Trump and congressional to be operational by the mid-2020s. Democrats. The president is increasingly surrounding himself with Reagan-era https://www.bbc.com/news/business-47041043 nuclear hawks, including John Bolton, his national security adviser and who pushed USA tells Russia and China to be for the INF to be jettisoned. Bolton’s new more transparent in nuclear deputy, Charles Kupperman, once argued programmes Deccan Chronicles a nuclear war could be won “in the classical January 30, 2019 sense” if one side emerged the stronger, even if there were tens of millions of casualties. The United States called for more transparency on Wednesday as it accused Speaking to reporters, former defence Russia and China of not fully reporting secretary William Perry, an arms control their nuclear programmes amid US threats advocate, said he was less worried about the to withdraw from a key arms control number of nuclear warheads left in the treaty. A senior US official made the world than by the return of cold war talk remarks as the five permanent members about such weapons being “usable”. “The of the UN Security Council — all of them belief that there might be tactical advantage nuclear-armed powers — met in Beijing using nuclear weapons – which I haven’t for talks on nuclear disarmament and non- heard that being openly discussed in the proliferation. Officials from Russia, China, United States or in Russia for a good many France and Britain — countries under the years – is happening now in those countries Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons which I think is extremely distressing,” Perry (NPT) treaty — also attended the meeting, said. “That’s a very dangerous belief.” which will continue on Thursday. The talks come after months of raging tensions https://www.scmp.com/news/world/united-states- between Moscow and Washington over canada/article/2183956/small-enough-use-low- the fate of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear yield-us-nukes-begin-rolling Forces treaty (INF) signed in 1987 by then 28 Volume 11, Number 03 February 15, 2019

US president Ronald Reagan and Soviet filed with a U.S. court in Nevada that it leader Mikhail Gorbachev. US President could reveal the shipment of half a metric Donald Trump has promised to walk away ton (1,100 pounds) because sufficient time from the agreement while President Vladimir had elapsed after the transfer to protect Putin has threatened a new arms race, national security. The shipment occurred saying Europe would be its main victim. before November 2018.

https://www.deccanchronicle.com/world/asia/ The plutonium was shipped from the K- 300119/usa-tells-russia-and-china-to-be-more- Reactor at the Savannah River Site, the transparent-in-nuclear-programme.html oldest reactor at the facility, to the Device Assembly Facility at the Nevada Nuclear U.S. Navy Nightmare: The Chinese Security Site, about 70 miles (112.65 km) Fleet Doesn’t Have 300 Ships, It Has north of Las Vegas. The revelation angered 650 David Axe , The National Interest, politicians from Nevada, a sparsely January 30, 2019 populated state where the federal government has long wanted to store The Chinese fleet is much bigger than most nuclear waste. people think. And that should compel the United States to reconsider its Pacific The NNSA said that due to security reasons maritime strategy, one expert argued. The no public notice was given ahead of the People’s Liberation Army Navy by 2020 will shipment and the highway route was not possess between 313 and 342 warships, the revealed. The department did not reveal U.S. Office of Naval Intelligence estimated. when the shipment was made, other than But the PLAN accounts for only a fraction it occurred before November 2018, before of China’s maritime power, according to Nevada had sued to stop the proposed Andrew Erickson, a professor at the U.S. shipments. Naval War College. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-pluto- The coast guard and militia have grown nium/u-s-secretly-ships-cold-war-era-pluto- alongside the PLAN, Erickson revealed. nium-to-nevada-idUSKCN1PP0AP “China’s second sea force, the coast guard, is ... the world’s largest, with more hulls than US Calls for Compliance With those of all its regional neighbors combined: Nuclear Treaties New York Times 225 ships over 500 tons capable of operating January 31, 2019 offshore and another 1,050-plus confined to closer waters, for a total of 1,275.” The U.S. has called for other permanent members of the United Nations Security .https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/us-navy- Council to adhere to the Nuclear Non- nightmare-chinese-fleet-doesnt-have-300-ships-it- Proliferation Treaty. Thompson says some has-650-42822 countries are violating non-proliferation and developing new weapons programs, U.S. secretly ships Cold War-era a likely reference to Russia, Iran and plutonium to Nevada Timothy Gardner, possibly North Korea. The NPT aims to Reuters, January 31, 2019 stop the spread of nuclear weapons. The U.S. government secretly shipped a large https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2019/01/31/ amount of deadly plutonium from a South world/asia/ap-as-russia-us-nuclear-treaty.html Carolina site that produced the radioactive metal for nuclear bombs during the Cold Russia and US FAIL to make War to Nevada, the Trump administration progress in crunch nuclear weapon revealed on Wednesday. treaty talks James Bickerton, Express, January 31, 2019 The Justice Department, on behalf of the Department of Energy’s National Nuclear The news was announced by Russian Security Administration, said in a notice deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov 29 Nuclear, Missile & Space Digest

according to the TASS news agency. Mr US to begin INF Treaty Ryabkov had met with US under secretary withdrawal from February 2, of state for state and arms control Andrea Washington confirms Russian Times, Thompson in Beijing. The INF treaty was January 16, 2019 agreed between the US and Soviet Union in 1987 which banned ground launched The US will begin its withdrawal from the missiles of certain ranges. Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty with Russia on February 2, Under Mr Ryabkov reportedly commented: “We Secretary of State for Arms Control told the US side that it is impossible to hold Andrea Thompson told NATO officials in dialogue in the conditions of attempted Brussels. Washington’s unilateral blackmailing of Russia”. The US announced withdrawal from the treaty – originally its intention to withdraw from the INF treaty signed by the United States and Russia in on October 20. 1987 – comes after negotiations in Geneva, Switzerland, fell through on Tuesday. https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1080367/ Russia-US-INF-Treaty-talk-nuclear-weapon- Thompson claimed that Russia is in breach Donald-Trump-Vladimir-Putin-Washington- of the treaty, and that Moscow’s 9M729 Moscow missile system violates the terms of the agreement.

Russia Under the agreement, signed by Ronald Russia, US start consultations in Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev in 1987, Geneva on INF Treaty TASS News land-launched nuclear missiles with a range between 500 and 5,500 km are Agency, January 15, 2019 banned. Washington claims, without Inter-departmental consultations between evidence, that the 9M729 has a range Russia and the United States on the greater than 500 km and is therefore in Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) violation of the treaty. The Russian Treaty have started in Geneva, TASS reports delegation at Geneva accused the US of from the scene. The Russian delegation is led “exacerbating the situation,” and Deputy by Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov told while the US delegation is headed by Under reporters that “Russia is strictly complying Secretary for Arms Control and with the INF Treaty.” International Security Andrea L. Thompson. This will be their first encounter since Russia “has no interest in a new arms Thompson’s appointment. race” with the US, President Vladimir Putin said in an interview published on As Ryabkov told journalists on Monday, Wednesday, but warned the Trump Russia is ready for serious work with the administration against withdrawing from United States at the upcoming consultations the treaty, saying “such a course will have and urges Washington to give up advancing the gravest consequences.” The INF treaty any ultimatums and preconditions.The was penned at a time when the United current round of consultations is being held States and Soviet Union were the world’s amid plans announced by US President chief nuclear competitors. Visiting Donald Trump to withdraw from the INF Moscow in October, Trump’s national Treaty. Also, US Secretary of State Pompeo security adviser John Bolton revealed that announced on December 4 that the US Washington feels hamstrung by the treaty, would stop adhering to the treaty unless because it applies only to Europe and does Russia returned to compliance with it within not restrict rising powers like China. 60 days. Therefore, in early February, Washington may start the countdown of its https://www.rt.com/news/448966-inf-with- drawal-treaty-russia/ withdrawal from the treaty.

http://tass.com/politics/1039956 30 Volume 11, Number 03 February 15, 2019

Russia’s nuclear-capable Washington to stay in the treaty. underwater drone to be deployed Washington has threatened to pull out of Emanuele Scimia, Asian Times, the 1987 Intermediate-range Nuclear January 21, 2019 Forces Treaty (INF), alleging that the new Russian missile, the Novator 9M729 (called Russia is ready to deploy nuclear-capable SSC-8 by NATO), violates the pact, which Poseidon underwater drones in the Pacific bans either side from stationing short and area as part of its oceanic multi-purpose intermediate-range, land-based missiles in system, Russian state media have reported. Europe. Given the poor state of relations between the Kremlin and the United States, the Russia denies that. It says the missile’s American superpower is evidently the range puts it outside the treaty and has primary target of new Russian weaponry, accused the United States of inventing a but the deployment of Poseidon could false pretext to exit a treaty it wants to leave eventually become an issue for China as anyway so as to develop new missiles. The well. United States had previously rejected a Russian offer to look at the contested Russian President Vladimir Putin unveiled missile, in what is known as a ‘static the development of Poseidon last March. It display’, because it said such an exercise is said the unmanned submersible vehicle would not allow it to verify the true range can carry a two-megaton nuclear warhead of its warheads. The Russian Defence and is capable of destroying enemy aircraft Ministry said diplomats from the United carriers and infrastructure facilities. States, Britain, France and Germany had Goldstein noted that the system had not been been invited to attend the static display, tested in any way that could be seriously but declined to attend. verified by the US or its allies, so doubts remain regarding its capabilities. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-nuclear- Furthermore, handling such weapons is not russia/russia-in-effort-to-defuse-u-s-nuclear- an easy task. dispute-displays-new-missile- idUSKCN1PH15A For Savelyev and Goldstein, Poseidon is not a game-changer in a strategic competition Russian, US senior diplomats to between nuclear powers, but its attend Beijing-hosted meeting of development will have the obvious effect of five key nuclear powers TASS News aggravating the problem of proliferation. Agency, January 23, 2019 The Russian expert said the diffusion of such weapons would open the way to a fresh Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei nuclear arms race, also adding a new Ryabkov and US Under Secretary for dimension to it. Arms Control and International Security Andrea Thompson will attend a meeting http://www.atimes.com/article/russias-nuclear- of five main nuclear states in Beijing on capable-underwater-drone-to-be-deployed/ January 30-31, Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said at a Russia takes wraps off new missile briefing answering a TASS question. “The to try to save U.S. nuclear pact Tom agenda of this scheduled event is far wider Balmforth, Andrew Osborn, Reuters, January than issues related to the INF treaty, as a 23, 2019 wide range of issues is expected to be considered there, with an emphasis on Russia showed foreign military attaches on nonproliferation of nuclear weapons,” Wednesday a new cruise missile that the Zakharova said. United States says breaches a landmark arms control pact, billing it as an exercise in http://tass.com/world/1041416 transparency it hoped would persuade 31 Nuclear, Missile & Space Digest

Putin vows to launch first Russian- Most recently, Ryabkov said that many built nuclear plant in Turkey in pieces of evidence the US put forward to 2023 Russian Times, January 24, 2019 support its accusations against Russia were in fact “fabricated.” Still, Russia took an One of Russia’s major energy projects in unprecedented step in terms of Turkey, the Akkuyu nuclear power plant transparency and unveiled extra details (NPP), will soon become operational. It is about the missile, which is still under expected to provide 17 percent of the development in Russia and which the US country’s electricity needs. “The claims is in breach of the INF, in a public implementation of a large-scale project for event. “The only way you can get the the construction of the first nuclear power system back into compliance is to destroy plant in Turkey, Akkuyu, is under way and the missile. There’s no way to alter it, complies with the schedule. They are there’s no way to change it, there’s no way building its first power unit, which we plan to adjust the fuel cycle, and we’ve laid that to launch in 2023,” Russian President out to them repeated times,” Thompson Vladimir Putin announced. said following the meeting. She also confirmed that the US intends to leave the The agreement for constructing and agreement but still admitted that the move operating the NPP was signed by the is “reversible” within the next six months. countries in 2010. The power plant’s first reactor is expected to begin working in 2023. https://www.rt.com/news/449747-russia-keep- The plant will have four reactors with a inf-us-withdrawal/ capacity of 4,800 MW, and a service life of 60 years. Russia’s main energy projects with Russia’s Rosatom starts testing Turkey involve natural gas. In November, accident-tolerant fuel for nuclear the two countries officially completed power plants TASS News Agency construction on the offshore section of the January 28, 2019 Turkish Stream pipeline. The section, which is 930km (578 miles) long and runs along Specialists of Russia’s civil nuclear power the bottom of the Black Sea, is designed to corporation Rosatom have started testing deliver Russian gas to the Turkish market. accident-tolerant fuel for nuclear reactors of the Russian and foreign design, the press https://www.rt.com/business/449575-putin- office of Rosatom’s subsidiary TVEL said akkuyu-plant-turkey/ in a statement on Monday. Accident- tolerant fuel is resistant to severe accidents Russia to work on keeping INF at nuclear power plants. It is expected to Treaty even if US withdraws from it keep its integrity for a long enough time – deputy FM Russian Times without a zirconium-steam reaction that January 26, 2019 induces hydrogen release.

Moscow will not abandon the INF Treaty The first phase of the reactor tests and post- and will make efforts to keep the landmark reactor studies of accident-tolerant fuel agreement in place even after Washington will be completed in 2019. Based on the suspends its membership, Russia’s Foreign data obtained, it will be necessary to select Ministry deputy head, Sergey Ryabkov said. the optimal combination of cladding “Absolutely not,” Ryabkov told journalists materials, calculate and validate the when answering a question on whether neutron-physical characteristics of light Russia believes the INF Treaty may be given water reactor cores, TVEL said. The next up on. Moscow considers the Intermediate- important stage includes loading Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF), which experimental fuel assemblies with some was initially signed by the US and the USSR ATF fuel rods into a commercial power to denuclearize the European continent, to reactor in Russia, the TVEL press office be well worth preserving regardless of said. “ATF is of critical importance for Washington’s actions, he added. further improving the integral safety and 32 Volume 11, Number 03 February 15, 2019

reliability of nuclear power,” the statement Longer range & powerful says. munitions: First Tu-160 bomber to TVEL provides nuclear fuel for 72 power join force in 2021 after makeover reactors in 14 countries, research reactors (VIDEO) Russian Times in eight countries, as well as transport January 31, 2019 reactors of the Russian nuclear fleet. Every Russian military is set to receive a new, sixth power reactor in the world operates improved version of the iconic Tu-160M on fuel manufactured by TVEL, according long-range bomber. The jet will get to the data posted on TVEL’s website. modern avionics, weaponry, radar and http://tass.com/science/1042130 other upgrades which would make it better in virtually every aspect. The WW3 threat: Russia blasts US over Russian military is expected to receive the highly modernized variant of the iconic low-yield warheads – ‘Boosting risk Tu-160M long-range bomber in 2021, of nuclear conflict’, Luke Hawker, Russia’s Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu Express, January 30, 2019 said. On Wednesday, he and other top military officials visited a plant in the city Tensions between Moscow and Washington of Kazan, where the modernized planes escalated after the National Nuclear Security are being produced. Administration (NNSA) announced it had started manufacturing the weapon at its The new variant of Tu-160M “will be Pantex plant in Texas on January 28. US packed with a cutting-edge defensive President Donald Trump ordered the complex, modern reliable communication creation of the W76-2 ‘mini nuke’ to boost system with improved interference its trident arsenal following a nuclear resistance, unique weaponry, which posture review (NPR) in 2018. Russian would significantly boost its combat Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said the capabilities while utilizing conventional missile “lowers the threshold of nuclear and nuclear munitions.” The Tu-160 long- weapons use and, of course, boosts the risk range bombers were introduced in late of a nuclear conflict”. 1980s, shortly before the collapse of the Soviet Union. The plane was created as a Meanwhile NNSA said the W76-2 was on carrier of long-range cruise missiles, fitted track to deliver units to the US Navy by the with nuclear warheads, yet it’s capable of end of Fiscal Year 2019.” The W76-2 is a carrying other –conventional – and less modification of the existing nuclear weapon, destructive munitions. the W76, but with a reduced amount of tritium. Other critics include former US https://www.rt.com/russia/450264-russia- defence secretary William Perry who tu160-modernized-bomber/ labelled the move “extremely distressing”. He added: “The belief that there might be Russia poses questions to ‘Nuclear tactical advantage using nuclear weapons Five’ on new US military doctrines – which I haven’t heard that being openly discussed in the United States or in Russia TASS News Agency January 31, 2019 for a good many years – is happening now During the Beijing-hosted ‘Nuclear Five’ in those countries which I think is extremely (Russia, the UK, China, the US and distressing.” France) conference, Russia’s delegation posed questions over Washington’s new https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1080282/ military doctrines. Deputy Director of the world-war-3-russia-news-nuclear-war-us-donald- trump-moscow-putin Department for Arms Non-Proliferation and Control of the Russian Foreign Ministry Oleg Rozhkov stated in his speech at the conference. 33 Nuclear, Missile & Space Digest

The diplomat also noted that the conference guidelines. When residents applied to the in Beijing was held amid a very unsteady center for higher levels of compensation, international situation. “The growing trends lawyers working as mediators listened to worldwide that negatively affect what they and TEPCO had to say to draw international security and stability are quite up settlement proposals. clear,” he noted. “We are seeing crisis situations in the sphere of arms control, http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/ including nuclear-missile weapons.” AJ201901150041.html

In 2018, the US adopted a new nuclear Koizumi says Japan must say ‘no’ doctrine, which stipulates the possibility of to nuclear energy The Asahi Shimbun, using nuclear weapons to respond to non- January 17, 2019 nuclear threats. In 2019, the Trump administration adopted a new concept for When he was prime minister, Junichiro ballistic missile defense, which specifies the Koizumi championed the use of atomic deployment of anti-missile defense elements power to generate electricity. Then the in space. According to the document, the 2011 earthquake and tsunami disaster US will recognize no restrictions for the struck, triggering a crisis at the Fukushima development and deployment of its ballistic No. 1 nuclear power plant in Fukushima missile defenses from now on. Prefecture. Koizumi, in office from 2001 to 2006, and widely regarded as one of http://tass.com/politics/1042603 Japan’s most popular postwar leaders, started reading up on the nuclear issue, Japan and had a change of heart.

TEPCO’s refusal to settle money Koizumi, 76, published his first book by talks prompts center to bow out his own hand titled “Genpatsu Zero Masahito Iinuma, The Asahi Shimbun, Yareba Dekiru” (We can abolish all January 15, 2019 nuclear plants if we try) in December. It is available from Ohta Publishing Co. In it, A government body set up to mediate in he lambasts consumers for lacking a sense compensation disputes with Tokyo Electric of crisis and simply believing a serious Power Co. over the 2011 nuclear disaster is accident like the Fukushima disaster will throwing in the towel because of the plant never happen again in Japan during their operator’s repeated refusal to play ball with lifetime. In a recent interview with The aggrieved residents. Officials of the Nuclear Asahi Shimbun, Koizumi said it was “a Damage Compensation Dispute Resolution lie” to claim that nuclear power is “safe, Center complained that TEPCO, operator of low-cost and clean,” although that is the stricken Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power precisely what he espoused when he held plant, keeps rejecting settlement proposals the reins of power. offered in an alternative dispute resolution process. http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/ AJ201901170010.html The center discontinued trying to offer assistance in 19 cases in 2018 and another Hitachi reversal points to nuclear one on Jan. 10, affecting 17,000 residents in sector led by China and Russia Jun total. If the center discontinues its mediation Iiyama And Takafumi Hotta, Nikkei Asian work, residents will have no recourse but to Review January 18, 2019 file lawsuits, which take time and money to resolve. The center was set up in September Hitachi officially announced Thursday 2011 to quickly settle disputes between that it is putting its British nuclear project TEPCO and residents who are unhappy on ice, a decision that will entail about 300 with the amounts of compensation offered billion yen ($2.8 billion) in losses for the by the company based on the government’s Japanese company. Japan’s goal of 34 Volume 11, Number 03 February 15, 2019

exporting nuclear technology is now in Toshiba Corp. decided in 2017 to exit tatters, as the Fukushima disaster of 2011 nuclear power businesses outside Japan has led to new, expensive safety after incurring huge losses in the United requirements, making private-sector reactor States, while Mitsubishi Heavy Industries construction all but unfeasible. Ltd. is leaning toward withdrawing from a nuclear project in Turkey. The Japanese With European operators facing similar government has been seeking to export challenges, nuclear projects going forward nuclear technology amid difficulties in are likely to be dominated by government- building reactors at home due to safety backed players, namely in China and Russia, concerns following the Fukushima crisis. altering the landscape of the industry. It had hoped overseas projects would offer Hitachi is not alone in the nuclear power opportunities for Japanese engineers to industry in its struggles. French peer Areva hone their skills. Progress toward fell into bankruptcy, and is now known as restarting existing reactors in Japan has Framatome following its sale to French public also been slow. The country has utility EDF. In the U.S., Westinghouse introduced stricter safety rules which Electric famously went under, and General require equipment upgrades, resulting in Electric is expected to retreat from the higher costs. nuclear business. https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20190118/ https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Companies/ p2g/00m/0bu/081000c Hitachi-reversal-points-to-nuclear-sector-led-by- China-and-Russia Girl, 11, exposed to high radiation levels after 2011 nuclear disaster Japan to press on with nuclear The Asahi Shimbun, January 22, 2019 export drive after Hitachi blow Mainichi Japan, January 18, 2019 An 11-year-old girl who evacuated from the town of Futaba after the 2011 TOKYO (Kyodo) — The Japanese Fukushima nuclear disaster was likely government said Friday it will continue to exposed to radiation levels near the back the export of nuclear power technology government-set standard, despite as part of the country’s growth strategy, a assurances that no children were exposed day after Hitachi Ltd. announced it has to such high doses. The girl is said to have suspended a nuclear plant project in Britain. been exposed to a radiation dose of about “There won’t be any changes to our policy,” 100 millisieverts, the threshold for Economy, Trade and Industry Minister enhanced risk of cancer, following the Hiroshige Seko told a press conference, even triple meltdown at the Fukushima No. 1 though Hitachi’s latest decision will leave nuclear power plant. Japan with no major overseas nuclear power plant project. Chief Cabinet Secretary The previously undisclosed case, which Yoshihide Suga told a separate press was reported to The National Institute of conference it is “essential” to secure human Radiological Sciences (NIRS) after the resources and enhance the technological and disaster, contradicts the central industrial base for nuclear operations, which government’s statement that “there has would also help Japan deal with the been no confirmed cases of children aftermath of the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi exposed to radiation doses of 100 nuclear power plant disaster and ensure the millisieverts or higher.” According to the safe operation of other reactors. Hitachi NIRS, the case was not disclosed at the effectively withdrew from a 3 trillion yen time because the institute considered that ($27 billion) plan to build two reactors in the estimate was based on information Wales, with President and CEO Toshiaki from the site using a simple monitoring Higashihara saying Thursday it had reached instrument and that the figures were not “limits” regarding further investment in the calculated precisely. The Fukushima project as a private entity. Prefecture town of Futaba co-hosts, along 35 Nuclear, Missile & Space Digest

with Okuma, the crippled nuclear plant, regulatory limits permissible for ocean which was inundated by massive waves discharge, the report said, adding that as triggered by the megaquake on March 11, of Dec. 13 last year, there were still 1.11 2011. million cubic meters of contaminated water at the plant. In some treated water, http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/ levels of strontium 90 were found to be AJ201901220056.html more than 100 times the safety threshold, while other radioactive substances, such Nagasaki’s educators changing as cesium, cobalt, antimony and tritium, perspective on A-bomb teachings were detected in the water, it said. Mainichi Japan, January 23, 2019, http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/ NAGASAKI (Kyodo) — Ideas are shifting archives/2019/01/23/2003708455 about what constitutes the nebulously named concept of “peace education” in Japanese government starts Nagasaki, the second city ever to suffer an building sea wall for new U.S. atomic attack, as educators look to create a base in Okinawa’s Henoko Japan new approach to learning about their home Times January 28, 2019 city’s difficult history. Educators say too much emphasis has been placed on relaying NAHA, OKINAWA PREF. - The the brutal reality of A-bomb strikes to future government began constructing a new sea generations, resulting in students forming a wall Monday in Okinawa as part of a myopic view of the incidents rather than controversial plan to relocate a U.S. questioning and debating everything that military base within the prefecture, the culminated in the nuclear attacks near the local defense bureau has said. end of World War II. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/01/28/ https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20190123/p2g/ national/japanese-government-starts-building- 00m/0fe/060000c sea-wall-new-u-s-base-okinawas-henoko/ #.XFGSh1Uza00 Fukushima ‘water crisis’ continues, Greenpeace says Lin Chia-nan, Taipei Toshiba unveils robot to probe Times, Jan 23, 2019 melted Fukushima nuclear fuel The Asahi Shimbun, January 29, 2019 Greenpeace Taiwan yesterday released a report about Japan’s failure to Toshiba Corp. unveiled a remote- decontaminate radioactively polluted water controlled robot with tongs on Monday following the 2011 Fukushima Dai-ichi that it hopes will be able to probe the inside nuclear power plant disaster, while calling of one of the three damaged reactors at on the Taiwanese government to take the Japan’s tsunami-hit Fukushima nuclear problem into account when drafting energy plant and grip chunks of highly policies. The report on Tokyo Electric Power radioactive melted fuel. The device is Co’s “water crisis” following the disaster designed to slide down an extendable 11- was primarily written by Greenpeace meter (36-foot) long pipe and touch melted Germany nuclear specialist Shaun Burnie. fuel inside the Unit 2 reactor’s primary containment vessel. The reactor was built On March 11, 2011, a magnitude 9 by Toshiba and GE. An earlier probe earthquake and subsequent tsunami carrying a camera captured images of triggered meltdowns at three of the pieces of melted fuel in the reactor last Fukushima Dai-ichi plant’s six reactors, year, and robotic probes in the two other causing radiation leaks. The firm in reactors have detected traces of damaged September last year said that its water fuel, but the exact location, contents and processing system had failed to reduce other details remain largely unknown. radioactive contaminants to levels below the 36 Volume 11, Number 03 February 15, 2019

Toshiba’s energy systems unit said an IAEA expert team that reviewed experiments with the new probe planned in Japan’s efforts to plan and implement the February are key to determining the proper decommissioning of the Fukushima equipment and technologies needed to Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (NPS). The remove the fuel debris, the most challenging final report, based on findings made part of the decommissioning process during a 5-13 November 2018 visit to expected to take decades. The three reactors Tokyo and the Fukushima Daiichi NPS by at the Fukushima plant suffered core the 13-member team meltdowns after a massive 2011 earthquake and tsunami damaged key cooling systems. The mission was the IAEA’s In last year’s probe, a camera developed by fourth International Peer Review of Japan’s Toshiba Energy Systems & Solutions Corp. Mid-and-Long-Term Roadmap towards the and the International Research Institute for Decommissioning of TEPCO’s Fukushima Nuclear Decommissioning found large Daiichi Nuclear Power Station. Two amounts of deposits in that area, including previous reviews were carried out in 2013 parts that resembled pebbles or gravel. The and one in 2015. The final report of the 30-centimeter (12-inch) long robot unveiled fourth mission, delivered to Japanese Monday will carry a radiation dosimeter, authorities yesterday, contains additional thermometer, LED lights, a camera and a details and expands on the Preliminary pair of tongs as it slowly slides down from a Summary Report released at the end of the pipe. The probe, attached by a cable on its mission. Both contain the same advisory back, is to dangle from the pipe and descend points on topics including long-term to the bottom of the reactor vessel’s pedestal, radioactive waste management, measures a structure directly below the core from against contaminated water, the removal which the melted fuel fell. of spent nuclear fuel and fuel debris, and public communications. http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/ AJ201901290020.html According to the IAEA Review Team, the Japanese government and TEPCO had Alarm triggered at onetime nuclear given due consideration to the advice fuel facility in Ibaraki after provided by the previous IAEA missions to enhance planning and safe radioactive substances leaked Japan implementation of decommissioning and Times January 30, 2019 radioactive waste management activities. An alarm was triggered at a onetime In the final report, the team reiterated that nuclear fuel manufacturing facility after “significant progress has already been radioactive substances were leaked while accomplished to move Fukushima Daiichi the materials were being transferred at a from an emergency situation to a facility operated by the Japan Atomic stabilized situation. This should allow the Energy Agency (JAEA) in Tokai, Ibaraki focus of more resources for detailed Prefecture, on Wednesday, officials said. planning and implementation of the decommissioning project of the whole site https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/01/30/ with considerations extended up to the national/alarm-sounded-nuclear-facility-ibaraki/ completion of the decommissioning.” #.XFGSWFUza00 https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/ IAEA Issues Final Report on Fourth iaea-issues-final-report-on-fourth-review-of- Review of Fukushima fukushima-decommissioning Decommissioning The International Atomic Energy Agency January 31, 2019 The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) today published the final report by 37 Nuclear, Missile & Space Digest

East Asia support from the international community. South Korea, US to seek UN sanctions exemption for inter- http://www.mofa.go.kr/eng/brd/m_5679/ Korean project Park Han-na, Korea view.do?seq=319711&srchFr=&srchTo=&srchWord=&srchTp= &multi_itm_seq=0&itm_seq_1=0&itm_seq_2=0&company_cd= Herald, Jan 17, 2019 &company_nm=&page=1&titleNm= Working-level officials from South Korea and the US agreed on Thursday that a sanctions Outcome of Meeting between exemption was needed to enable the two ROK and China’s Top Negotiators Koreas to carry out joint projects and said on North Korean Nuclear Issue they would ask the United Nations Security Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Republic of Council to waive related restrictions. Korea, January 17, 2019 According to the Foreign Ministry, the two countries reached consensus during a Amb. Lee Do-hoon, Special Representative videoconference that it was necessary to for Korean Peninsula Peace and Security bring electronic devices into North Korea for Affairs, together with Vice Foreign two inter-Korean projects — surveys to Minister of the People’s Republic of China prepare for the reconnection of cross-border and Special Representative of the Chinese railways and the excavation of the remains Government on the Korean Peninsular of an independence fighter who took up Affairs Kong Xuanyou, held a meeting in arms against Japan’s colonial rule. The Seoul on January 17 in their capacity as videoconferences between South Korea and the two countries’ top negotiators on the the US take place twice a month. North Korean nuclear issue.

The UN has imposed strict sanctions against The two sides agreed to maintain close North Korea for its nuclear weapons and communication at various levels in a bid ballistic missile programs. As a result, the to make the year 2019 a significant year North is prohibited from importing refined in terms of work to achieve a complete petroleum, machinery and denuclearization and establish peace, as equipment.”During the meeting, officials was the case in the year 2018, when from the two sides agreed on the need for remarkable progress had been made in the mine clearance equipment to uncover the situation on the Korean Peninsula. remains and for the joint railway project. The request to the UNSC will be made http://www.mofa.go.kr/eng/brd/m_5676/ view.do?seq=320339&srchFr=&srchTo=&srchWord=&srchTp= shortly,” a ministry official said on condition &multi_itm_seq=0&itm_seq_1=0&itm_seq_2=0 of anonymity. &company_cd=&company_nm=&page=7&titleNm= http://www.koreaherald.com/ view.php?ud=20190117000699&ACE_SEARCH=1 ROK and US Top Negotiators on North Korean Nuclear Issue Hold Spokesperson and Deputy Minister Telephone Consultation on Jan. 17 for Public Relations Noh Kyu-duk Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Republic of Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Republic of Korea, January 18, 2019 Korea, January 17, 2019 Amb. Lee Do-hoon, Special Representative At the forthcoming Davos Forum, Minister for Korean Peninsula Peace and Security Kang will share with opinion leaders of the Affairs, received a phone call from United global community the ROK government’s States Special Representative for North diplomatic efforts to achieve Korea Stephen Biegun and held a denuclearization and establish a lasting consultation with him over the phone peace on the Korean Peninsula. around 21:15, January 17. The Accordingly, the event is expected to serve consultation came after the one on as a good opportunity to win broader January 15. 38 Volume 11, Number 03 February 15, 2019

Over the phone, the US side explained that offer help. But again, sanctions will be Vice Chairman of the Workers’ Party of the hurdles for the two to advance Democratic People’s Republic of Korea Kim cooperation, and the nuclear issue is the Yong-chol was scheduled to visit the US key. from January 17 for a high-level US-DPRK meeting with Secretary of State Mike http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/ Pompeo, among others. The ROK and US 1136417.shtml sides agreed to hold a meeting on the heels of the US-DPRK event to promptly share Seoul claims nuclear-free energy with each other its outcome and fine-tune policy not the cause of high fine- possible next steps. dust levels Yonhap, Korea Herald, January 21, 2019 http://www.mofa.go.kr/eng/brd/m_5676/ view.do?seq=320346&srchFr=&srchTo=&srchWord=&srchTp= South Korea’s industry ministry on &multi_itm_seq=0&itm_seq_1=0&itm_seq_2= Monday claimed that the worsening fine 0&company_cd=&company_nm=&page=7&titleNm= dust concentration in the country’s air cannot be attributed to the government’s Sanctions relief key to moving nuclear-free policy, claiming Seoul has denuclearization forward Wang steadily made efforts to reduce coal-based Wenwen, Global Times, January 20, 2019 power generation. The Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy claimed that it is The second summit between US President wrong to conclude that the density of fine Donald Trump and North Korean dust increased because the country operated leader Kim Jong-un will take place “near the more coal power stations to meet demand end of February,” the White House said on for electricity amid South Korea’s efforts to Friday, though the location is yet to be move break away from nuclear power announced. Meeting with Trump again was plants. “Since the launch of the Moon Jae- articulated in Kim’s New Year address, but in administration, the amount of fine dust what is more noticeable is that a great deal created from coal power stations has been of his speech was focused on the state of falling,” the ministry said, claiming local North Korea’s economy. For Kim and his nuclear plants have recently generated less country, it is sanctions relief and economic power due to other factors, and not the development that matter most. Now that government’s energy policy. North Korea is prioritizing the economy, Kim is expected to make moves to overcome The ministry said while the amount of sanctions. Inter-Korean cooperation is one power produced from coal power stations of Kim’s goals this year. He cited tourism increased 25 terawatt hours in 2017 from and manufacturing projects with South a year earlier, this is due to the operation Korea, which offers clues into what fields of more efficient power plants that were may require sanctions’ exemptions. launched under previous administrations. The amount of fine dust produced from As North Korea’s neighbor, South Korea has coal stations, on the other hand, reached already pushed for sanction exemptions to 26,952 tons in 2017, down from 30,679 restart dormant cooperation projects with tons produced in 2016. The figure for 2018 the North, even at the risk of upsetting its is estimated at 22,869 tons, the ministry ally the US. In late December, the two Koreas said. South Korea suspended operation of staged a ground-breaking ceremony to five old power stations from March to June upgrade severed rail links, with sanctions of 2018, and plans to spend 11.5 trillion relief from the UN needed to start won ($10 billion) through 2030 to improve construction. Meanwhile, analysts stressed environment-related facilities of coal Beijing’s importance to Pyongyang’s plants. economic goals. Some consulting firms have already assessed Pyongyang’s need for http://www.koreaherald.com/ infrastructure, an issue on which China can view.php?ud=20190121000317&ACE_SEARCH=1 39 Nuclear, Missile & Space Digest

Govt. to announce blueprint on nuke seen leaving the convention earlier in the plant decommissioning in March day in a remote area located northwest of Yonhap, Korea Herald, January 21, 2019 Stockholm, where the two sides have held three days of negotiations. South Korea’s industry ministry said Monday it will announce the blueprint on Later in the day, another vehicle apparently fostering the country’s nuclear plant carrying Choe Son-hui, North Korea’s vice decommissioning industry in March in line foreign minister, was spotted driving with its new energy policy. While the away. South Korea’s chief nuclear envoy, government seeks to turn South Korea into Lee Do-hoon, was also staying at the a nuclear energy-free nation, there have facility for bilateral or trilateral discussions. been demands that the government should The Sweden negotiations come after Kim seek new opportunities to keep the country’s Yong-chol, a top aide to North Korean energy industry running.”We plan to leader Kim Jong-un, visited Washington prepare a plan to establish a nuclear-plant D.C. early last week. He had talks with decommissioning research institute in the Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and met southeastern region of the country, along with U.S. President Donald Trump. with a comprehensive strategy on fostering Trump said Sunday that “a lot of the industry by March,” Industry Ministry progress” had been made on the issue of Sung Yun-mo said, claiming that South denuclearizing North Korea and that he Korea will emerge as the leading player in was looking forward to meeting Kim at the segment starting with the dismantling the end of next month.Whether of the Kori-1 reactor. Pyongyang and Washington will take the next steps toward the actual second The Kori-1 unit in the southern port city of summit, such as announcing the date and Busan was permanently closed in 2017 after venue, could hinge on the outcome of the 40 years of commercial operation, making meeting between Biegun and Choe. it the nation’s first reactor to undergo dismantlement. An official from the ministry Expectations remain over an additional said it normally takes 15 to 20 years to fully meeting between the two sides since they dismantle a defunct plant.In October 2017, are said to be staying for another day the government said it will seek to open a before they leave Sweden. Vice President research center on decommissioning nuclear Mike Pence has said that in the second plants and develop released technologies to summit, the U.S. will be laying out its set its eyes on overseas markets as expectations for North Korea to “take well. Currently, Gyeongju, Ulsan and Busan concrete steps to begin to make real the are making efforts to host the research denuclearization that Kim Jong-un center. The government is widely expected committed to.” to announce the location in March. http://www.koreaherald.com/ http://www.koreaherald.com/ view.php?ud=20190121000816&ACE_SEARCH=1 view.php?ud=20190121000599&ACE_SEARCH=1 Outcome of ROK-Japan Foreign N. Korea, U.S. end working-level Ministerial Meeting Held on talks in Sweden Yonhap, Korea Herald, Occasion of Davos Forum 2019 January 21, 2019 Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Republic of Korea, January 21, 2019 North Korea and the United States ended their working-level consultations in Sweden On the occasion of the Davos Forum 2019, on Monday (local time) to break the impasse Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha met over denuclearization talks amid apparent bilaterally with Foreign Minister of Japan preparations underway for another summit Taro Kono on January 23. In the meeting, of their leaders. A vehicle carrying U.S. the two top diplomats discussed ways Special Representative Stephen Biegun was to work together toward the 40 Volume 11, Number 03 February 15, 2019

denuclearization and the establishment of consultations between North Korea and peace on the Korean Peninsula. the United States in Sweden said Wednesday that there will be “rapid Minister Kang, taking note of the recent progress” in efforts to stage more talks high-level talks between the United States between Pyongyang and Washington. Lee and the Democratic People’s Republic of Do-hoon, special representative for Korean Korea, expressed expectation regarding the Peninsula peace and security affairs at the proposed second US-DPRK summit. She Ministry of Foreign Affairs, was at a went on to suggest that the ROK and Japan meeting in a suburb of Stockholm where continue working together to achieve North Korean Vice Foreign Minister Choe tangible progress toward a complete Son-hui and U.S. State Department denuclearization and a lasting peace on the Special Representative for North Korea Korean Peninsula. Policy Stephen Biegun exchanged their °Minister Kono, underscoring the importance ideas on denuclearization and lifting of tangible progress toward sanctions. denuclearization, voiced hope for continued close communication and coordination “It went well,” Lee said of the North between the ROK and Japan on Korean Korea-U.S. meeting earlier this week. He Peninsula issues, apart from that on some was speaking to Yonhap News Agency of the bilateral issues. after attending the meeting between South Korean Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha http://www.mofa.go.kr/eng/brd/m_5676/view.do? and her Japanese counterpart Taro Kono seq=320347&srchFr=&srchTo=&srchWord= in Davos, Switzerland. Asked about &srchTp=&multi_itm_seq=0&itm_seq_1=0&itm_seq_2= possibility of North Korea and the U.S. 0&company_cd=&company_nm=&page=6&titleNm= holding more talks in the near future, Lee said the two sides are making “rapid Vice Foreign Minister Lee to Meet progress,” expressing his optimism on with Mexico’s Undersecretary of upcoming events.Meanwhile, at the Foreign Affairs Ventura Ministry of foreign ministers’ meeting, Lee said he Foreign Affairs, Republic of Korea, explained the results of the recent North January 21, 2019 Korea-U.S. working-level consultations to Japan. Lee will return to South Korea later Vice Minister Lee will extend appreciation this week. (Yonhap) to the Mexican government for its consistent support for the ROK government’s policy http://www.koreaherald.com/ toward the Korean Peninsula; explain the view.php?ud=20190123000798&ACE_SEARCH=1 current situation on the Korean Peninsula; and discuss with the Mexican delegation North Korean base serves as ways to further enhance cooperation missile headquarters - think tank between the governments of the two Katanga Johnson, Reuters, countries toward the denuclearization and January 22, 2019 establishment of a lasting peace on the Korean Peninsula. One of 20 undeclared ballistic missile operating bases in North Korea serves as http://www.mofa.go.kr/eng/brd/m_5676/view.do? seq=320345&srchFr=&srchTo=&srchWord=&srchTp= a missile headquarters, according to a &multi_itm_seq=0&itm_seq_1=0&itm_seq_2= report by the Center for Strategic and 0&company_cd=&company_nm=&page=7&titleNm= International Studies (CSIS) published.”The Sino-ri missile operating base and the S. Korea’s chief nuclear envoy sees Nodong missiles deployed at this location fit into North Korea’s presumed nuclear ‘rapid progress’ for future Yonhap, military strategy by providing an Korea Herald, January 21, 2019 operational-level nuclear or conventional South Korea’s top nuclear envoy who first strike capability,” said the report co- recently attended working-level authored by analyst Victor Cha. 41 Nuclear, Missile & Space Digest

The discovery of an undeclared missile the website NK News reported, suggesting headquarters comes three days after U.S. South Korea was slipping on sanctions. President Donald Trump said he “looks South Korea has urged the partial easing forward” to another summit to discuss of U.N. Security Council sanctions at a denuclearization with North Korean leader time of improving ties with the North, as Kim Jong Un in late February.Kim vowed the United States continues to pressure to work toward denuclearization at his first Pyongyang to abandon its nuclear summit with Trump in June, but there has weapons and missile programmes. since been little concrete progress. “Seoul has chosen to implement UNSC https://in.reuters.com/article/northkorea-usa- sanctions on North Korea on a selective missiles/north-korean-base-serves-as-missile- and often inconsistent basis,” NK News, headquarters-think-tank-idINKCN1PG05W a group that follows North Korea, said in a report on its website, citing its analysis. Pompeo expects ‘good marker’ with South Korea sent 342.9 tonnes of N. Korea by end-Feb. Reuters January petroleum products to North Korea in 2018, according to the South’s Ministry of 23, 2019 Unification, but NK News said the U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said shipments were not reported to the United on Tuesday there remained “an awful lot of Nations. work to do” to achieve the denuclearization https://in.reuters.com/article/northkorea- of North Korea but he anticipates further southkorea-sanctions/south-korea-selective-in- progress by the end of next month, when implementing-sanctions-on-north-group- the U.S. and North Korean leaders are idINKCN1PH0DE expected to meet for a second summit. Pompeo, addressing the World Economic ROK and Poland Hold 15th Policy Forum in Davos via satellite link, said he believed by the end of February “we’ll have Consultation Ministry of Foreign another good marker along the way” with Affairs, Republic of Korea, Jan 24, 2019 North Korea. Undersecretary Lang, appreciating “There remains an awful lot of work to do, Korean enterprises’ robust investment in but good things have happened already,” Poland, voiced hope for closer cooperation Pompeo said, referring to a freeze in North with the ROK in such areas as new Korean nuclear and missile testing since technology, innovation and defense 2017. The White House said last week U.S. industry, as well as for Korean companies’ President Donald Trump would hold a participation in Poland’s large-scale second summit with North Korean leader infrastructure projects, including those for Kim Jong Un in late February, but the United the construction of a new airport and a States would maintain economic sanctions nuclear power plant. on Pyongyang. The announcement came Deputy Minister Yoon shared with his during a visit to Washington by Kim’s chief Polish counterpart the current situation on nuclear envoy Kim Yong Chol. the Korean Peninsula and the ROK http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/ government’s policy toward the AJ201901230020.html Democratic People’s Republic of Korea; extended appreciation to Poland for its South Korea ‘selective’ in support for the ROK government’s work to achieve a complete denuclearization and implementing sanctions on North: establish a lasting peace on the Korean group Joyce Lee, Reuters, January 23, Peninsula; and asked for continued attention 2013 and support of the Polish government.

South Korea failed to notify a U.N. sanctions http://www.mofa.go.kr/eng/brd/m_5676/view.do? committee when it sent about 300 tonnes of seq=320352&srchFr=&srchTo=&srchWord=&srchTp=&multi_itm_seq= petroleum products to North Korea in 2018, 0&itm_seq_1=0&itm_seq_2=0&company_cd=&company_nm=&page=6&titleNm= 42 Volume 11, Number 03 February 15, 2019

Foreign Minister Attends Davos take this country towards economic Forum 2019 Ministry of Foreign Affairs, development.’ He has to deliver that, and Republic of Korea, Jan 24, 2019 he’s not going to get the kind of significant assistance unless he takes concrete steps She went on to voice hope that the second towards denuclearization and somehow summit between the United States and the eases the sanctions regime,” she was Democratic People’s Republic of Korea and quoted as saying. Chairman Kim Jong-un’s reciprocal visit to the ROK, which are expected to come in 2019 http://www.koreaherald.com/ in the wake of the three inter-Korean view.php?ud=20190125000465&ACE_SEARCH=1 summits and the historic US-DPRK summit in 2018, would produce tangible progress Foreign Minister Meets with her toward the denuclearization of the Korean Brazilian Counterpart on Jan. 24 Peninsula. on Occasion of Davos Forum 2019 Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Republic of Minister Kang also underscored the ROK Korea, January 25, 2019 government’s commitment to maintaining the momentum of dialogue on the back of Minister Kang asked the Brazilian the ironclad ROK-US alliance, close government to remain supportive of the coordination with neighboring countries ROK government’s work to achieve and the unified commitment of the denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula international community to a complete and advance inter-Korean relations. denuclearization. Minister Araujo expressed support for efforts toward the denuclearization and http://www.mofa.go.kr/eng/brd/m_5676/view.do? peace on the Korean Peninsula. Explaining seq=320357&srchFr=&srchTo=&srchWord=&srchTp= the current situation in Venezuela, he &multi_itm_seq=0&itm_seq_1=0&itm_seq_2=0&company_cd= underscored the need for continued &company_nm=&page=6&titleNm= attention of the international community to the issue. North Korea may suggest shutdown of Yongbyon nuclear complex, http://www.mofa.go.kr/eng/brd/m_5676/view.do? international inspections: Foreign seq=320362&srchFr=&srchTo=&srchWord=&srchTp= Minister Kang Park Han-na, Korea &multi_itm_seq=0&itm_seq_1=0&itm_seq_2= 0&company_cd=&company_nm=&page=5&titleNm= Herald, January 25, 2019 South Korea’s foreign minister said Thursday ROK-Iraq Foreign Ministers’ that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is Meeting Takes Place on Occasion expected to take concrete steps toward of Davos Forum Ministry of Foreign denuclearization in order to keep his pledges Affairs, Republic of Korea, January 25, 2019 concerning economic development, as the leaders of both the US and the North express Minister Kang explained the ROK optimism about their upcoming summit. government’s efforts to completely denuclearize the Korean Peninsula and to Closing the Yongbyon nuclear complex and establish a lasting peace on the Peninsula, dismantling key missile facilities in the and asked for Iraq’s continued support. presence of foreign inspectors are measures Foreign Minister Al Hakim took note of the that Pyongyang might suggest during a ROK government’s leading efforts to make second summit between US President Donald progress in inter-Korean relations, and said Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong- that his country would continue to un, South Korean Foreign Minister Kang support the efforts. Kyung-wha said in an interview with Reuters at the World Economic Forum in Davos. http://www.mofa.go.kr/eng/brd/m_5676/view.do? seq=320361&srchFr=&srchTo=&srchWord=&srchTp= “The (North Korean) leader has promised &multi_itm_seq=0&itm_seq_1=0&itm_seq_2=0&company_cd= to his people many times that ‘I’m going to &company_nm=&page=5&titleNm= 43 Nuclear, Missile & Space Digest

Foreign Minister Attends Closed- business and investing activities and Door Meeting on Korean fulfilling the economic potential of the Peninsula’s Future Held on Korean Peninsula; and expressed support Occasion of Davos Forum 2019 for the ROK government’s efforts to accomplish a complete denuclearization Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Republic of and build peace. Korea, January 25, 2019 http://www.mofa.go.kr/eng/brd/m_5676/view.do? Minister Kang noted with appreciation that seq=320364&srchFr=&srchTo=&srchWord=&srchTp= the three inter-Korean summits and the &multi_itm_seq=0&itm_seq_1=0&itm_seq_2=0&company_cd United States-Democratic People’s Republic =&company_nm=&page=5&titleNm= of Korea summit in Singapore in 2018 had affirmed the firm commitment of the leaders Foreign Minister Meets Bilaterally of the ROK, the US and the DPRK to a complete denuclearization and the with her Canadian Counterpart on establishment of a lasting peace on the Occasion of Davos Forum 2019 Korean Peninsula. She went on to Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Republic of underscore the need to make tangible Korea, January 25, 2019 progress in the peace process on the Korean Minister Kang shared with her Canadian Peninsula in 2019 on the back of such counterpart the outcome of the high-level achievements. talks between the United States and the In particular, the Minister, calling it Democratic People’s Republic of Korea necessary to build a sustainable trust and other recent progress toward the between the ROK and the DPRK as well as denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula; between the US and the DPRK, and to see extended appreciation to Canada for its tangible progress toward denuclearization support for efforts of the government of in order for the current dialogue process to the Republic of Korea toward a complete move further forward, voiced hope that the denuclearization and a lasting peace on high- and working-level talks between the the Korean Peninsula; and asked the US and the DPRK, which had been resumed country to continue playing a constructive the week before, would lead to a second US- role in that regard. DPRK summit and thereby produce tangible Minister Freeland mentioned that if there results regarding denuclearization. were anything that Canada could do to Minister Kang, sharing with the other contribute to efforts to peacefully resolve participants President Moon’s “Korean the North Korean nuclear issue, it would Peninsula peace initiative,” asked for keen cooperate actively. attention to and support for the ROK http://www.mofa.go.kr/eng/brd/m_5676/view.do? government’s efforts toward peace and seq=320358&srchFr=&srchTo=&srchWord=&srchTp= prosperity on the Korean Peninsula. &multi_itm_seq=0&itm_seq_1=0&itm_seq_2= 0&company_cd=&company_nm=&page=5&titleNm= In the question-and-answer session that ensued, the panelists expressed their keen S. Korea looks for Kim nuclear interest in and discussed in depth the ROK government’s overall policy toward North dismantling pledge at next Trump Korea, including its ways of seeking summit The Asahi Shimbun, January 25, denuclearization, as well as its future vision 2019 for the Korean Peninsula. North Korea must make concrete pledges In particular, the participants drew a toward curbing its nuclear weapons common understanding that peace and programme, such as dismantling its main stability on the Korean Peninsula was nuclear complex and allowing essential for not only dispelling security international inspections to confirm the threats but also paving the way for stable process, when leader Kim Jong Un meets 44 Volume 11, Number 03 February 15, 2019

U.S. President Donald Trump as soon as activity that is inconsistent with full next month, South Korea’s foreign minister denuclearization,” he said. said. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa- Kang Kyung-wha told Reuters at the World northkorea-nuclear/north-korea-unlikely-to- Economic Forum in Davos that she is give-up-nuclear-weapons-us-spy-chief-coats- optimistic that North Korea will agree to idUSKCN1PN1Y7 concrete steps towards abandoning its nuclear weapons and ballistic missile Missiles a priority, Tsai tells programmes, developed in violation of ministry Jonathan Chin, Taipei Times, United Nations resolutions. “The (North January 30, 2019 Korean) leader has promised to his people many times that ‘I’m going to take this President Tsai Ing-wen (!…ñ‚‡e) has country towards economic development’. ordered the Ministry of National Defense He has to deliver that, and he’s not going to to prioritize deploying air defense missile get the kind of significant assistance unless systems to counter the changing nature of he takes concrete steps toward the military threat against Taiwan. Tsai denuclearisation and somehow eases the yesterday spoke to military recruits after sanctions regime,” she said on Thursday. her tour of Taichung’s Chenggong Ling “Given the strong political will on the part (bŸRº]) military training camp, where she of the top leaders of the two sides... I think inspected live-fire sharpshooter practice we will see concrete results.” and had lunch at the canteen.

http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/ Tsai said she recently toured an AJ201901250012.html installation of Tien Kung III air defense weapons systems in Hualien, visited the North Korea unlikely to give up 53rd Engineer Group in Taoyuan, and nuclear weapons: U.S. spy chief instructed the Chungshan Institute of Science and Technology to accelerate Coats Reuters, January 29, 2019 missile production. She has a personal North Korea is unlikely to give up its nuclear interest in seeing the policies through, thus weapons capabilities despite recent moves fulfilling her promise to develop a self- indicating it was open to such actions, U.S. sufficient defense industry, Tsai said. Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats said on Tuesday. http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/ archives/2019/01/30/2003708903 Coats’ assessment, in testimony before a Senate panel, clashed with President Donald N. Korea unlikely to give up Trump’s periodic upbeat assessments of nuclear arsenal: US intel chief North Korea’s commitment to Korea Herald, January 30, 2019 decnuclearization since his historic meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un last North Korea is unlikely to give up its June. And Kim continues to demonstrate nuclear weapons program, the US openness to the denuclearization of the intelligence chief said Tuesday, calling into Korean Peninsula, Coats said in testimony question the efficacy of ongoing diplomacy to the Senate Intelligence Committee. to denuclearize the regime. Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats made the “Having said that, we currently assess that remark at a Senate panel hearing, with North Korea will seek to retain its WMD only weeks to go before a planned second capabilities and is unlikely to completely give summit between US President Donald up its nuclear weapons and production Trump and North Korean leader Kim capabilities because its leaders ultimately Jong-un. view nuclear weapons as critical to regime survival,” Coats said. “Our assessment is “We currently assess that North Korea will bolstered by our observations of some seek to retain its WMD capabilities and is 45 Nuclear, Missile & Space Digest

unlikely to completely give up its nuclear European Union members and EU foreign weapons and production capabilities policy Chief Federica Mogherini will skip because its leaders ultimately view nuclear a summit organized by Washington on weapons as critical to regime survival,” Coats Iran and the Middle East in Poland. A told the Senate Intelligence Committee, senior EU official said on Thursday that referring to weapons of mass destruction. Mogherini wouldn’t attend the Warsaw The North Korean leader Coats said. gathering because of a prior engagement, The Wall Street Journal reported. http://www.koreaherald.com/ view.php?ud=20190130000103&ACE_SEARCH=1 Mogherini has spearheaded EU efforts to sustain the 2015 deal, which offered Iran Iran relief from sanctions in exchange for steps to curb its nuclear program. The senior EU Iran’s withdrawal from JCPOA official said the bloc remains unclear on detrimental for Europe: SCFRI Global what vision of peace and stability in the Times January 16, 2019 Middle East the Feb. 13-14 summit will aim to promote. There is “a lot of uncertainty A senior foreign policy official warned that about participation of many other EU Iran’s withdrawal from the Joint member states at ministerial level,” the Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and official said. its consequences for the security of the region and Europe will not be in the interest of the http://syriatimes.sy/index.php/news/world/ European governments. Chairman of the 39837-eu-nations-mogherini-not-to-attend- Strategic Council for Foreign Relations of washington-s-anti-iran-summit Iran (SCFRI) Kamal Kharrazi underlined that more serious talks between Iran and key Danon Calls On U.N. To Take European countries should be developed to Action against Iranian Ballistic examine the future of relations. Missiles Tovah Lazaroff, The Jerusalem In his meeting with a Norwegian delegation Post, January 20, 2019 from Norwegian Centre for Conflict The United Nations Security Council must Resolution (NOREF) think-tank, Kharrazi take action to curb the threat of Iran’s described the policies of the US President ballistic missiles, particularly those with Donald Trump as dangerous for Europe, the ability to carry nuclear warheads, and said that efforts to create a gulf between Israel’s Ambassador to the United Nations western and eastern Europe and policies wrote in a letter to the UN Security such as supporting Brexit and extremist Council. nationalism in Europe are among the dangers that the United States has created He plans to raise the matter at Tuesday’s for Europe. The senior official emphasized UNSC meeting on the Middle East, which that this process should be stopped and if is typically devoted to the Israeli- Europeans do not stand up to American Palestinian conflict. Danon continued, pressure at this stage, they will face much “Iran completely disregards Resolution more problems in the future.” 2231, not only by launching missiles itself – both toward outer space and into http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/ neighboring countries – but also by leading 1135935.shtml a frenzy of missile proliferation across an already volatile Middle East. EU Nations, Mogherini Not to Attend Washington’s Anti-Iran “Iran is a rogue state violating international law. It blatantly defies the Summit Syria Times, January 18, 2019 calls of the international community, and A US effort to enlist Europe in its pressure by doing so, cynically threatens the campaign against Iran faced a setback after stability of our region, Europe and beyond. officials said ministers from several I call on the Security Council to join the 46 Volume 11, Number 03 February 15, 2019

nations and unions of states that have Republic of Iran to behave more like a already taken measures to curb the threat normal nation,” Pompeo said. of Iranian missiles, especially those capable of carrying nuclear weapons,” he said. https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/ Under the U.N. resolution enshrining Iran’s upcoming-mideast-conference-in-warsaw-not- 2015 nuclear deal with Britain, China, aimed-at-demonizing-iran-u-s-says-1.6869807 France, Germany, Russia and the United States, Tehran is “called upon” to refrain EU’s energy director shares from work on ballistic missiles suitable for relevance of renewables Global carrying nuclear weapons. Times, January 23, 2019

https://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Danon-calls- Energy has always been an important on-UNSC-to-take-action-against-Iranian- aspect of governments’ policies in the ballistic-missiles-577974 international spectrum and has never stopped influencing the livelihood of the Upcoming Mideast Conference in people. The Global Times (GT) talked with Warsaw Not Aimed at Demonizing Megan Richards (Richards), director, Iran, U.S. Says Haaretz, January 23, 2019 Directorate-General for Energy, European Commission, who discussed the petrodollar The United States said Tuesday an system, EU’s special purpose vehicle (SPV) international conference next month to towards Iranian oil and China’s renewable promote peace and stability in the Middle energy collaboration with the EU. East is not aimed at demonizing Iran, which has denounced the gathering as America’s GT: The EU is creating a SPV to help anti-Iran “circus.” facilitate the exchange of Iranian oil and gas with EU goods, thereby U.S. deputy ambassador Jonathan Cohen circumventing the US sanctions. told the Security Council that the conference According to the scheme, the SPV would in Warsaw on February 13-14 sponsored by have taken place in late 2018, but no the United States and Poland is also not result has been seen so far. Can you tell aimed at discussing the merits of the 2015 us more about that? Iran nuclear deal known as the JCPOA, which U.S. President Donald Trump Richards: That’s an interesting question, withdrew from in 2018. because the SPV is one of the elements of what we were doing in the context of the “Attempts to create some kind of military Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action alliances in the region, holding different (JCPOA), which Europe is very much conferences and focusing on having a trying to keep. We think the JCPOA is a simplified unilateral approach to the region particularly important instrument to limit that is clearly linked just to Iran, is the nuclear capability of Iran and we have counterproductive,” he said, “and just been working to maintain focus on its pushes further away the prospects of finding commitments and make sure Europe a genuine security architecture for the honors its commitments in that context as region.” well.

Pompeo, who recently completed a Mideast The US has increased its sanctions on Iran tour bringing the Trump administration’s and introduced them gradually. We have anti-Iran message to the region, said Sunday a few exemptions from both sanctions for in Qatar that he hoped the Warsaw some countries in Europe and they have conference will allow the world to see “the been allowed to continue trading in enormous coalition that is prepared to assist Iranian oil for a short period of time. We in creating stability and peace here in the don’t know how long that’s going to last. Middle East.” We’ll work on many issues The idea of the SPV is to protect and including how it is we can get the Islamic promote the legitimate interests of Iran, 47 Nuclear, Missile & Space Digest

presuming also that Iran continues to meet the trade and financial benefits the deal its obligations and commitments under the provided, it will also pull out and restart JCPOA. The JCPOA is supposed to enable controversial parts of its nuclear program. sanctions to facilitate European exporters and importers to pursue legitimate trade https://www.timesofisrael.com/irans-nuclear- include oil exports from Iran and [other] chief-we-bought-spares-for-nuke-equipment-we- imports from Europe, because there were agreed-to-destroy/ many European countries that started to increase their trade with Iran on the basis Iran likely to step up cyber of the JCPOA treaty. The work [of SPV] is espionage Arab News, January 28, 2019 continuing to advance, [and currently] we BRUSSELS: Iran is likely to expand its don’t have any more details, but the cyber espionage activities as its relations countries are working very hard to try to with Western powers worsen, the EU make this work. digital security agency said on Monday. http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/ Iranian hackers are behind several 1136842.shtml cyberattacks and online disinformation campaigns in recent years as the country Iran’s nuclear chief: We bought tries to strengthen its clout in the Middle spares for nuke equipment we East and beyond, a Reuters Special Report published in November found. This month agreed to destroy Stuart Winer, The the EU imposed its first sanctions on Iran Times of Israel 24 January 2019 since world powers agreed a 2015 nuclear Ali Akbar Salehi, the head of the Atomic deal with Tehran, in a reaction to Iran’s Energy Organization of Iran, has detailed ballistic missile tests and assassination how Iran quietly purchased replacement plots on European soil. “Newly imposed parts for its Arak nuclear reactor while it sanctions on Iran are likely to push the was conducting negotiations for an country to intensify state-sponsored cyber international agreement under which it threat activities in pursuit of its geopolitical knew it would be required to destroy the and strategic objectives at a regional level,” original components. the European Union Agency for Network and Information Security (ENISA) said in The industrial complex at Arak in central- a report. west Iran was a key topic in negotiations due to its nuclear reactor and heavy-water A senior Iranian official rejected the report, production facility. Western powers initially saying “these are all part of a psychological demanded that the core reactor mechanism war launched by the United States and its — know as a calandria — be removed and allies against Iran.” ENISA lists state- that the pit in which it sits be filled with sponsored hackers as among the highest cement. While Iran agreed to remove — but threats to the bloc’s digital security. It said not dismantle — the calandria, it also that China, Russia and Iran are “the three negotiated that only the pipes and openings most capable and active cyber actors tied leading to the pit be filled with cement, to economic espionage.” which was eventually done. http://www.arabnews.com/node/1443431/ middle-east Last week Salehi said Iran has begun “preliminary activities for designing” a modern process for 20-percent uranium Petraeus, Yadlin Disagree On enrichment. Restarting enrichment at that Trump’s Willingness To Attack level would mean Iran had withdrawn from Nuclear Iran Yonah Jeremy Bob, the 2015 nuclear deal. Jerusalem post, January 28, 2019

Tehran has in the past warned that if the Ex-CIA director David Petraeus and ex- remaining parties are not able to keep up IDF intelligence chief Amos Yadlin 48 Volume 11, Number 03 February 15, 2019

disagreed on Monday about whether US to distract attention from anti-government President Donald Trump would be ready to demonstrations in their country. Iran on attack Iran if it came close to possessing a Monday denied that it was holding any nuclear weapon. Yadlin’s point was that US talks with France about the missiles. “The deterrence of North Korea and Iran in some enemies say Iran’s missile power should areas was very strong, but that regarding be eliminated, but we have repeatedly said developing nuclear weapons, he thought US our missile capabilities are not negotiable,” deterrence was “weak” because of a lack of Iranian Defense Minister Amir Hatami will. Rather, he said that Trump was only was quoted as saying by Tasnim news comfortable using maximum pressure in the agency, using a phrase usually applied to diplomatic and economic arenas. the US and Israel.

Petraeus, who has close relations with The secretary of Iran’s National Security Yadlin, uncharacteristically jumped in to Council said Iran would keep working to strike a different stance. He said: “but the improve the missiles’ accuracy. “Iran has question is nuclear deterrence, not other no scientific or operational restriction for malign activity,” alluding to the Islamic increasing the range of its military missiles, Republic’s global terrorist activities, but based on its defensive doctrine, it is especially in Syria. He acknowledged that continuously working on increasing the the US is drawing down forces in Syria, but precision of the missiles, and has no said that was not the same as abandoning intention to increase their range,” Ali the Middle East. The former general and CIA Shamkhani, another close aide to director also said that the key was whether Khamenei, was quoted as saying by state the US kept sufficient forces at a US base at broadcaster IRIB. In November 2017, the al-Tanf, a potential crossing point for Iran deputy head of Iran’s Revolutionary to extend its influence throughout Syria and Guards warned that it would increase the Lebanon. range of its missiles beyond 2,000 km (1,200 miles), if Europe threatened Iran. https://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Politics-And- A UN Security Council resolution that Diplomacy/David-Petreaus-Stanley-Fischer-debate- accompanied the 2015 nuclear deal “called World-According-to-Trump-at-INSS-578930 upon” Tehran to refrain for up to eight years from work on ballistic missiles Tehran rejects talks on its ballistic designed to deliver nuclear weapons. missile program Arab News, January 29, 2019 But Iran said that call did not amount to a binding order and has denied that its LONDON: Iran on Tuesday dismissed missiles are capable of carrying nuclear pressure from France and other Western warheads. Washington has also told powers for talks over its ballistic missile Tehran to stop developing satellite- program, but said it had no plans to increase launching technology, saying it was the range of the weapons. France said last concerned that the same gear could also week it was ready to impose further be used to launch warheads. Shamkhani sanctions on Iran if no progress was made said Iran would keep working on the in talks about the missiles, described by technology “to improve the quality of Tehran as defensive but seen in the West as people’s lives and increase the country’s a destabilizing factor in a volatile region. technological prowess.” Telecoms Minister Mohammad Javad Azari-Jahromi said on “Negotiations over Iran’s missile and Tuesday that an Iranian satellite, called defensive capabilities are not acceptable in Friendship, will be launched soon. any way,” Maj. Gen. Hassan Firouzabadi, Another launch failed earlier this month. a top adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was quoted as http://www.arabnews.com/node/1443736/ saying by the IRNA news agency. He said middle-east French leaders were only raising the issue 49 Nuclear, Missile & Space Digest

Germany says EU soon to launch Israel sees Iran’s nuclear and ballistic Iran funding scheme Mainichi Japan missile programs as a threat to its January 29, 2019 existence. Iran says its nuclear work is for peaceful purposes only. BRUSSELS (AP) — The European Union is on the verge of launching an alternative https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-israel/ channel to send money to Iran that would iranian-commander-threatens-israels-destruc- sidestep U.S. sanctions against the Islamic tion-if-it-attacks-state-tv-idUSKCN1PM144 republic, Germany’s foreign minister said Monday. The “special purpose vehicle,” or Top intel chiefs break with Trump SPV, is part of EU efforts to keep alive an on Daesh, Iran, DPRK Yeni Safak international agreement aimed at curbing January 30, 2019 Iran’s nuclear ambitions. The future of the U.N. Security Council underwritten pact The heads of America’s spy agencies broke was thrown into doubt when President with U.S. President Donald Trump on a Donald Trump pulled out last year slamming slew of hot button global issues during it as a “horrible, one-sided deal.” testimony before a Senate panel Tuesday.

German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas told Director of National Intelligence Dan reporters in Brussels that “as far as the Coats told the Senate intelligence committee not only is North Korea unlikely special purpose vehicle is concerned: it will to give up its nuclear program, the U.S. be registered, it has not yet been registered, intelligence community continues to but I would say that the implementation of observe “some activity that is inconsistent our plan is imminent.” Maas said the EU’s with full denuclearization” following a aim is to ensure that “business not summit between Trump and North sanctioned by the U.S. can be upheld, and Korea’s leader aimed at ridding the there is a suitable instrument for Korean Peninsula of nuclear arms. international payments.” He said that Germany has been working notably with On Daesh, which Trump and his top Britain and France but also other EU officials have repeatedly claimed has been partners in recent months to set it up, defeated by a U.S.-led coalition, Coats said without providing details. that while the U.S. has defeated the terror group’s territorial hold in Iraq and Syria https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20190129/p2g/ 00m/0in/022000c “with a couple of little villages left,” it will remain a threat for the foreseeable future. Daesh still retains control of “thousands Iranian commander threatens of fighters in Iraq and Syria,” estimated Israel’s destruction if it attacks: CIA Director Gina Haspel, who was state TV Reuters, January 28, 2019 testifying alongside Coats and other top A senior Iranian Revolutionary Guards intelligence officials. commander on Monday threatened Israel https://www.yenisafak.com/en/world/top-intel- with destruction if it attacks Iran, state chiefs-break-with-trump-on-daesh-iran-dprk- media reported. 3473230 Iranian officials have previously said Saudi Arabia Tehran, which does not recognize Israel, would respond swiftly to any Israeli attack. Can Saudi Arabia produce ballistic missiles? Satellite Israel backed U.S. President Donald Trump’s move to back out of the 2015 international imagery raises suspicions Paul deal on Iran’s nuclear program and Sonne, Washington Post, January 23, 2019 welcomed Washington’s reimposition of Satellite images suggest that Saudi Arabia sanctions on the country. has constructed its first known ballistic 50 Volume 11, Number 03 February 15, 2019

missile factory, according to weapons Michael Elleman, the senior fellow for experts and image analysts, a development missile defence at the International that raises questions about the kingdom’s Institute for Strategic Studies in increasing military and nuclear ambitions Washington, also reviewed the satellite under its 33-year-old crown prince. photos and said they appear to show a ballistic missile programme. Congress has If operational, the suspected factory at a grown increasingly critical of Saudi Arabia missile base in al-Watah, southwest of since the Oct 2 assassination of Khashoggi Riyadh, would allow Saudi Arabia to at the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul, manufacture its own ballistic missiles, allegedly carried out by members of Prince fueling fears of an arms race against its Mohammed’s entourage. The kingdom’s regional rival Iran. years-long war in Yemen also has angered lawmakers. If the Saudis produce Saudi Arabia currently does not possess “medium-range systems inherently nuclear weapons, so any missiles produced capable of carrying nuclear weapons, the at the apparent factory are likely to be response will be much more robust, though conventionally armed. But a missile-making likely out of public view”, Elleman said. facility would be a critical component of any “Congress, on the other hand, may lash eventual Saudi nuclear weapons program, out, as this will be seen as another affront hypothetically giving the kingdom capability to the US and regional stability.” to produce the preferred delivery systems for nuclear warheads. https://www.dawn.com/news/1459910

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national- security/can-saudi-arabia-produce-ballistic- How Saudi Arabia’s nuclear power missiles-satellite-imagery-raises-suspicions/2019/ will play a role against climate 01/23/49e46d8c-1852-11e9-a804- change Caline Malek, Arab News, c35766b9f234_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.7104f4a30ed0 January 30, 2019

Experts, images suggest a Saudi As nuclear power is increasingly being ballistic missile programme is in seen as a key element in tackling climate change, Saudi Arabia is moving toward Dawn, January, 26, 2019 the works adopting the renewable energy source. A military base deep inside Saudi Arabia According to a report last year by the appears to be testing and possibly Intergovernmental Panel on Climate manufacturing ballistic missiles, experts and Change (IPCC), a large increase in nuclear satellite images suggest, evidence of the type power could help keep global warming to of weapons programme it has long criticised below 1.5 degrees Centigrade, a target set its arch-rival Iran for possessing. Having as part of the 2015 Paris Agreement. But such a programme could further strain to achieve that target, experts say the relations with the United States, the kingdom’s world needs to start reducing greenhouse longtime security partner, at a time when ties gas emissions almost immediately. already are being tested by the killing of Washington Post columnist Jamal “The IPCC report made clear the necessity Khashoggi and the Saudi-led war in Yemen. of nuclear energy as an important part of an effective global response,” Agneta The November satellite images show what Rising, director general of the World appear to be structures big enough to build Nuclear Association, told Arab News. and fuel ballistic missiles. An apparent “Nuclear power is the only form of rocket-engine test stand can be seen in a electricity generation that can deliver corner of the base the type on which a rocket constantly, reliably, 24/7 without the is positioned on its side and test-fired in production of greenhouse gas emissions. place. Such testing is key for countries A nuclear power plant also takes up a attempting to manufacture working missiles, much smaller area, in contrast to many experts say. renewables such as wind or solar.” 51 Nuclear, Missile & Space Digest

Dr. Peter Bode, former associate professor wounding at least 16, the Israel of nuclear science and technology at the Broadcasting Corp. reported. Delft University in the Netherlands, said: “The need for electricity will increase by the https://www.jta.org/quick-reads/terrorist- conversion to electric cars for the next attacks-in-israel-decrease-sharply decade, and hydrogen-driven cars beyond 2030. Hydrogen gas is generated from water Secret Handwritten Memos but also needs electricity, while a single Reveal How Israel’s Nuclear nuclear power station produces energy Program Came to be Adam Raz, equivalent to hundreds of wind turbines.” Haaretz, January 20, 2019 Nuclear power is seen as especially well- suited to and beneficial in the Middle East, A treasure trove of memos written by top where energy demand is growing rapidly. Israeli politicians in the 1960s and onward “It’s difficult to see alternatives in the Middle reveals disputes over the nuclear ‘project,’ East for electricity needs without nuclear its huge cost and the decision to adopt a power as a major component in the energy policy of ambiguity, vast majority of the mix,” Bode said. “In addition, nuclear power documents were original. Many of them plants generate jobs.” were written by Israel Galili, a minister without portfolio and close adviser to two http://www.arabnews.com/node/1444166 prime ministers, Levi Eshkol and Golda Meir. Others were penned by Yigal Allon, West Asia Shimon Peres, Moshe Dayan and Abba Eban, and by Eshkol himself. Many of the Terrorist attacks in Israel decrease items refer to highly confidential meetings sharply despite 3 deaths Jewish that took place in 1962-1963, where the Telegraph agency, January 18, 2019 future of the nuclear project, and its impact on Israel’s neighbors, especially Egypt, The number of terrorist attacks against were discussed. No official minutes were Israelis dropped by 75 percent last month taken at these meetings, and the over November, but it was also the deadliest participants were forbidden to sum them month since March with three people killed. up in writing. The downturn in attacks was mostly due to Hamas inactivity along the border with The history of the Israeli nuclear project is Gaza, the Israel Security Agency said in its important not only because of its bearing monthly report. In December, the agency on the country’s past, but because of its documented 155 attacks compared to a two- influence on the present and the future. year high of 645 attacks in November. Last Despite the firm stance to the contrary of month’s tally was the lowest since March the defense establishment (and others), it 2018. is possible to hold a serious and responsible Hostilities nearly ceased along the border discussion about historical facts without with Gaza, with only 17 such incidents “denting” the policy of ambiguity. compared to 529 in November. Along with Foreign intelligence agencies do not base the three fatalities, 14 people were wounded their evaluations on historical in December. The number of attacks in the documentation that is 50-plus years old. West Bank rose by 11 percent to 118 and Whereas a lively discussion on the the number of attacks in Jerusalem doubled, significance of nuclear development has reaching 20. been held throughout the world for years, On Friday, at least 10,000 demonstrators in Israel there is only silence. This is not a approached the fence separating Gaza and minor issue, as the nuclear project raises Israel as part of the weekly protests held weighty questions: Who makes the there since late March. Some demonstrators decisions? Who is supervising the project? began rioting, and Israeli army and Border What is its effect on the foreign relations Police troops used crowd dispersal methods, of the nuclear state? What is its cost? What 52 Volume 11, Number 03 February 15, 2019

effect does it have on security conceptions? Trump cited the nuclear archive as his And so on. main reason for breaking America’s nuclear deal with Iran. A public that is willing to remain in the shadows where its state’s nuclear policy is https://www.jpost.com/Israel-Elections/Is- concerned, should not be surprised that Netanyahus-boasting-of-Syria-strikes-preemp- decades later after its critical origins, a tive-attack-on-Gantz-578162 criminal episode is revealed dealing with the decision-making processes on the acquisition SIPRI report offers novel of submarines that, according to foreign approaches to nuclear disarmament sources, are capable of carrying nuclear in the Middle East Talal Husseini, SIPRI warheads. Report, January 23, 2019 https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium- A report commissioned by the Stockholm secret-handwritten-memos-reveal-how-israel-s- International Peace Research Institute nuclear-program-came-to-be-1.6850955 (SIPRI) identifies two new approaches to securing nuclear disarmament in the Netanyahu’s Boasting Of Syria Middle East, including reinforcing the Strikes May Be A Preemptive Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and a Attack On Gantz Gil Hoffman, Jerusalem Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) free Post, January 21, 2019 zone without the participation of Israel, or incorporating a WMD-free zone as part Two concurrent trends can be contrasted at of a broader regional security dialogue.The this early stage ahead of the April 9 election, SIPRI report noted that the previous efforts and they may not be a coincidence. The first to eradicate the stockpiling of nuclear is the silence of former IDF chief of staff weapons in the Middle East have been Benny Gantz, who has been presumed to underwhelming and that despite the be the main competition of Prime Minister formation of treaties, such as the NPT and Benjamin Netanyahu. Gantz wants to build the 1995 Middle East Resolution, an himself up politically in the limelight of his effective policy has remained past military career before exposing his unimplemented. political views. The first approach analysed by SIPRI is the The second is the opposite behavior by possibility of a WMD-free zone process in Netanyahu himself, who has been boasting the Middle East, without Israel’s about Israel’s military strikes in Syria lately participation. According to the report, in what has been interpreted by his critics some Arab states proposed this course of as an attempt to build up his military action at the 2015 NPT Review Conference credentials ahead of a challenge from and the 2018 First Committee Gantz, who could be joined on a Knesset conference.However, in the absence of slate by fellow former IDF chiefs of staff Gabi Israel’s consent, there is a “growing Ashkenazi and Moshe Ya’alon. realisation” that the NPT’s requirement for consensus does not allow for any It is possible that Ya’alon is wrong, and that undertaking of a WMD-free zone without there are professional, strategic reasons for approval from all parties. According to Netanyahu’s change in policy. After all, the report, the possibility is improbable, Netanyahu was also criticized for exposing but not impossible, as historical precedent the Mossad operation that revealed Iran’s shows. nuclear archive in a high-profile speech to the world in April. The critics questioned An alternative approach would involve why a clandestine Mossad operation had to framing the issue of nuclear disarmament be revealed in such great depth, like no in the context of a broader regional operation by Israel’s intelligence agencies security dialogue. Ongoing crises in the ever had before. They got their answer nine Middle East, ranging from Syria to Yemen, days later, when US President Donald including the US/Iran and the Israeli- 53 Nuclear, Missile & Space Digest

Palestinian conflicts, call for a more in East Asia and the entire world. comprehensive dialogue, with nuclear disarmament one of several issues on the https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press- table. releases/2019/01/21/joint-statement-of-the- 22nd-eu-asean-ministerial-meeting/ https://www.army-technology.com/news/sipri- nuclear-disarmament-in-the-middle-east/ A resurgent Russia sets its sights on Asia Bertil Lintner Chiang Mai, Asia South, South East and Central Asia Times, January 26, 2019 Joint statement of the 22nd EU- When Vietnam and Russia established a ASEAN ministerial meeting EU News new inter-parliamentary cooperation January 21, 2019 committee, an agreement finalized in December when Russian State Duma We, the Foreign Ministers of Member States Chairman Vyacheslav Viktorovich of the European Union and the High Volodin visited Hanoi, the camaraderie Representative of the Union for Foreign harked back to their old Cold War ties. Affairs and Security Policy and Vice President of the Commission, the Foreign Russia has happily filled the gap by Ministers of the Member States of the delivering more than $2.5 billion worth of Association of Southeast Asian Nations weapons to Indonesia since November (ASEAN), gathered on 21 January 2019 in 1992. Sales have included armored Brussels, Belgium, at the 22nd EU-ASEAN personnel carriers, infantry fighting Ministerial Meeting. vehicles, Kalashnikov assault rifles, fighter planes, attack helicopters, and other We have a shared interest in promoting military hardware, official Russian media international law and internationally agreed have reported. norms and standards, thereby contributing to a peaceful, fair and prosperous world. We In another sign of the new world disorder, reaffirm our commitment to regionalism and this Thursday the US offered to hold arms- multilateralism which are mutually control talks with Russia at an upcoming reinforcing and which contribute to regional UN meeting in Beijing. The meeting comes and global peace, security, stability, and against the backdrop of US accusations prosperity. that Moscow has violated the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) We call on the DPRK to completely, agreement by deploying nuclear-capable verifiably and irreversibly dismantle all its cruise missiles that could target US allies nuclear and other weapons of mass in Europe. destruction, ballistic missiles and related programmes and facilities in accordance http://www.atimes.com/article/a-resurgent- with the relevant UNSC resolutions. We are russia-sets-its-sights-on-asia/ committed to supporting a comprehensive solution through diplomacy and fully US donates $3.8 million in ground implementing the UNSC resolutions, sensor radar equipment to including restrictive measures. In this Tajikistan The Times of Central Asia context, we urge the DPRK to return to the January, 29, 2019 Non-Proliferation Treaty and IAEA safeguards at an early date and to cooperate United States Chargé d’Affaires Kevin with its monitoring system. We underline Covert and General-Colonel Saimumin that the development of inter-Korean Yatimov, the Chairman of the State relations, the complete, verifiable and Committee of National Security of irreversible denuclearisation of, and the Tajikistan, on January 29 attended the peace regime on the Korean Peninsula are handover ceremony of $3.8 million in important for peace, security and stability security assistance equipment provided to 54 Volume 11, Number 03 February 15, 2019

the Border Guard Forces under the State Misc/Global Committee of National Security of the Republic of Tajikistan. The ground sensor Nagasaki’s educators changing radar system provides the Border Guard perspective on A-bomb teachings Forces with the capability to persistently Mainichi Japan, January 23, 2019 monitor portions of their border that would otherwise remain unobserved by routine NAGASAKI (Kyodo) — Ideas are shifting patrols. This capability is particularly about what constitutes the nebulously advantageous in areas where long distances named concept of “peace education” in between outposts in harsh terrain make Nagasaki, the second city ever to suffer an persistent patrolling challenging, the US atomic attack, as educators look to create Embassy in Dushanbe said in a press release. a new approach to learning about their home city’s difficult history. Educators say https://www.timesca.com/index.php/news/20779- too much emphasis has been placed on us-donates-3-8-million-in-ground-sensor-radar- relaying the brutal reality of A-bomb equipment-to-tajikistan strikes to future generations, resulting in students forming a myopic view of the House OKs Nuclear Regulation Act incidents rather than questioning and The Philippine Star, January 31, 2019 debating everything that culminated in the nuclear attacks near the end of World War The House of Representatives has approved II. on second reading House Bill 8733 or the Comprehensive Nuclear Regulation Act, https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20190123/ which seeks to establish a comprehensive p2g/00m/0fe/060000c nuclear regulatory framework and create the Philippine Nuclear Regulatory China clones gene-edited monkeys Commission (PNRC). Global Times, January 24, 2019

Under HB 8733, the PNRC will be a single, China has cloned five monkeys from a independent nuclear regulatory body to gene-edited macaque with circadian focus on the control of peaceful uses and rhythm disorders, the first time multiple application of nuclear energy. monkeys have been cloned from a gene- edited monkey for biomedical research. The measure aims to harness the peaceful Scientists made the announcement and beneficial uses of nuclear energy in Thursday, with two articles published in agriculture, health and medicine, energy National Science Review, a top Chinese production, scientific research, industry, journal in English. The cloned monkeys and education; recognize the potentially were born in Shanghai at Institute of harmful effects of ionizing radiation; protect Neuroscience of Chinese Academy of society and the environment; establish a legal Sciences. and regulatory framework for the regulation and control of the peaceful uses of nuclear Researchers said that the advance means resources; manage radioactive waste; and that a population of customized gene- establish a legal and regulatory framework edited monkey models with uniform to prevent, detect and respond to genetic background will be available for unauthorized activities involving nuclear biomedical research. Disorders of circadian materials. rhythm are associated with many human diseases, including sleep disorders, https://www.philstar.com/business/science-and- depression, diabetic mellitus, cancer and environment/2019/01/31/1889440/house-oks- neurodegenerative diseases, such as nuclear-regulation-act Alzheimer’s disease.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/ 1136922.shtml 55 Nuclear, Missile & Space Digest

World powers must start taking Five Nuclear-weapon States Hold steps toward nuclear disarmament a Formal Conference in Beijing Chris Doyle, Arab News, January 28, 2019 Ministry of Foreign Affairs People’s Republic of China, January 30, 2019 Two minutes to midnight. The Doomsday Clock remains stuck at its all-time “high,” On January 30, 2019, the formal stressing the acute dangers to the planet of conference among the five nuclear- nuclear Armageddon and climate change. weapon states (also the five permanent This symbolic clock, used by the Bulletin of members (P5) of the United Nations (UN) Atomic Scientists, serves to highlight the Security Council) was held in Beijing. grave dangers we face. In their view, the Assistant Foreign Minister Zhang Jun situation is more serious than even at the attended the opening ceremony and height of the Cold War, including the Cuban chaired the conference. Director of Missile Crisis, with the exception of 1953 — Strategic, Security and Disarmament the only other time midnight was so Affairs at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs close. More states now possess nuclear Nicolas Roche of France, Deputy Foreign weapons: A total of nine, although the global Minister Sergei Ryabkov of Russia, Political figure of nuclear warheads has dropped Director General of Foreign and from a Cold War high of around 70,000 to Commonwealth Office Philip Barton of the 14,485. Chemical weapons have been United Kingdom (UK) and Under deployed in Syria by both the regime and Secretary of State Andrea Thompson of non-state actors. Ballistic missile technology the United States (US) respectively headed is spreading. delegations to attend the conference.

The prime fear centers on US-Russian China, France, Russia, the UK and the US, tensions over disarmament. President as the nuclear-weapon states designated Donald Trump announced his intention last by the Treaty on the Non-proliferation of February to withdraw from the Nuclear Weapons (NPT), formed the five Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty nuclear-weapon states mechanism as a (INF). The US has, for over four years, coordination mechanism during the accused Russia of violating the treaty by review process of the NPT, and the five deploying its Novator ground-based missile, states have maintained regular claiming it violates range limits. communication on important issues concerning strategy and security since As during the Cold War, the risk register 2009, jointly promoting the review process looks bleakest when turning to the Middle of the NPT. It is the first time for the five East. Regional power rivalries, tensions and nuclear-weapon states to hold a formal a complete lack of trust make for a disturbing conference after a two-year interval. mix. Enduring conflicts in Syria, Iraq, Yemen Centering on the theme of “Strengthening and Libya are underpinned by a Saudi- P5 Coordination, Safeguarding NPT Iranian cold war and a failure to even get Regime”, representatives of the five states close to resolving the issue of Palestine. None carried out in-depth and candid of this is helped by massive inequalities, communication on nuclear policies and wealth disparities and diminishing strategies, nuclear disarmament, nuclear resources. Climate change serves only to non-proliferation and other issues. Zhang exacerbate all of this. What are the Jun, on behalf of the Chinese side, the international bodies tasked with current rotating coordinator of the five disarmament doing to diminish this threat? nuclear-weapon states cooperation Multilateral bodies are only ever as strong mechanism, made chairmanship as the will and determination of their conclusion remarks after the conference, members. In the last two years, the trend is stressing that all parties have reached three moving away from international cooperation important consensuses: to putting national “interests” first. First, the five nuclear-weapon states http://www.arabnews.com/node/1443271 committed to sharing responsibility for 56 Volume 11, Number 03 February 15, 2019

international peace and security. The five system under authorization. The five nuclear-weapon states all recognized that nuclear-weapon states committed to the current international security promoting international cooperation in the environment faces severe challenges and peaceful use of nuclear energy, and agreed that maintaining sound relations among to strengthen coordination and major countries is of great importance to the cooperation in the fields of nuclear safety settlement of global strategic problems. They and nuclear energy security. They also agreed to take an objective view on agreed to submit national reports to the respective strategic intentions, strengthen 2020 NPT Review Conference, so as to exchanges on nuclear policies and strategies, jointly push the Review Conference for a enhance strategic mutual trust and maintain success. common security, in a bid to spare no effort to prevent nuclear risks that may be caused Third, the five nuclear-weapon states by misunderstandings and misjudgments. committed to continuing to use the five The five nuclear-weapon states undertook nuclear-weapon states cooperation to maintain the existing international arms platform to maintain dialogue and control system and comply with all coordination. The current international international arms control agreements. They security situation is undergoing reiterated relevant commitments to negative complicated and profound evolution. The security assurances, including active security international security environment, the and negative security. The five nuclear- direction of the international order and the weapon states are willing to restart confidence of the international community consultation with Southeast Asian countries hinge on interaction among major on the Protocol to the Southeast Asia countries. The five nuclear-weapon states Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone Treaty and agreed to maintain strategic dialogue, continue committing to promoting the strengthen exchanges on nuclear policies establishment of a Middle East zone free of and strategies, enhance coordination in the nuclear weapons and other weapons of review process of the NPT, and conduct mass destruction. researches on implementing specific work through the channel of ambassadors for Second, the five nuclear-weapon states disarmament in Geneva. All parties undertook to jointly safeguard the NPT supported China in taking the lead to carry regime. They stressed that the NPT is the out the second phase of the work of the cornerstone of the international nuclear non- P5 Working Group on the Glossary of Key proliferation regime and also an essential Nuclear Terms, and welcomed the UK to part of the international security hold the next formal P5 Conference in architecture, and undertook to 2020. The five nuclear-weapon states comprehensively and completely implement actively promote the international the NPT and promote its universality. The community to conduct open and five nuclear-weapon states will follow the constructive dialogue, and will hold a principle of “undiminished security for all”, dialogue with international academic promote greater progress in nuclear institutions, the media and officials from disarmament, and realize the goal of a world embassies of some non-nuclear-weapon free of nuclear weapons step by step. They states in China on January 31. believed that the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons deviates from and Zhang Jun expressed that as the harms the NPT, and reiterated their stance permanent members of the UN Security of unanimous opposition. The five nuclear- Council and the nuclear-weapon states weapon states confirmed that they will do designated by the NPT, the five nuclear- their utmost to solve the nuclear non- weapon states conducted in-depth proliferation issue through political and exchanges of views with mutual respect diplomatic means, and support the as well as a candid and practical attitude, International Atomic Energy Agency in reached many consensuses and charted strengthening the safeguard and supervision the course for cooperation, which 57 Nuclear, Missile & Space Digest

showcased the active attitude of major upfront cost of nuclear plants and years- countries to cope with international security long delay for investors reaping a return. challenges through coordination and cooperation, and was conducive to https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/ enhancing the international community’s jan/17/what-role-does-nuclear-power-play-in- confidence in international security uk-and-what-are-alternatives environment. EU failure to implement SPV Zhang Jun stressed that with increasing could worsen current situation: unstable and uncertain factors in the current Italian expert Payman Yazdani, Tehran international security situation, major- Times, January 18, 2019 country relations and responsibilities will be keenly watched. The five nuclear-weapon The Spokesman of Iranian Foreign states should reinforce coordination and Ministry Bahram Ghasemi said on Tuesday cooperation, seek common security and that Europe has not yet informed when it safeguard global strategic stability. As the is going to launch the promised financial rotating coordinator of the five nuclear- mechanism known as the Special Purpose weapon states cooperation mechanism, Vehicle (SPV) in order to help Iran China will continuously remain committed continue business under U.S. pressures. to promoting the five nuclear-weapon states to build consensus, manage differences, “The Europeans have yet to finalize the replace major-country competition with financial mechanism,” Ghasemi said in major-country coordination and replace reaction to rumors that the European zero-sum games with win-win cooperation, Union is going to launch the promised so as to make positive contributions to financial mechanism known as the Special advancing world peace and stability. Purpose Vehicle (SPV) by the end of January. Ghasemi said that while the https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/wjbxw/ European side has repeatedly expressed its t1634793.shtml political willingness to implement the SPV, it has delayed implementing it many times Op-eds/Reports so far, which is unjustifiable and unacceptable to Iran. What role does nuclear power play in UK and what are alternatives? The spokesman further added “based on Adam Vaughan, The Guardian, their statements so far, they have obtained January 17, 2019 the desired results by now.The issue was discussed with professor of Milan Catholic Britain’s old nuclear power stations supply University of the Sacred Heart, Dr. Pastori about a fifth of electricity supplies and are a Gianluca. key part of the energy system. However, their share of the mix has been gradually Q: Is EU able to make operational the shrinking as renewables have grown and SPV (Special Purpose Vehicle) despite energy demand has fallen. So far the only the U.S. opposition? nuclear project to be given the go-ahead is EDF Energy’s Hinkley Point C, a 3.2GW A: Talking about the SPV mechanism is plant in Somerset, which will power about quite difficult since its operational 6m homes when complete. architecture is still unclear. According to the rumors, it seems that, from a theoretical Attention will turn to a new method of point of view, it could be useful in solving financing known as the regulated asset base the financial difficulties of trading goods (RAB) model, which the government plans on the international markets without to give more details on this summer. The moving dollars, relaying either on some RAB approach would mean a regulator form of barter or on non-dollar setting fixed costs and fixed returns for a transactions. However, solving this nuclear developer, to overcome the huge problem does not address the companies’ 58 Volume 11, Number 03 February 15, 2019

main fear: being sanctioned because they U.S., strengthening the existing ties with trade with Iran. The outcome is linked to Russia and/or China is of little or no avail. the exposure to the U.S. market of the different companies; small and medium https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/431975/ sized enterprises, without a U.S. nexus or EU-failure-to-implement-SPV-could-worsen- without significant exposure to the U.S. current-situation-Italian could benefit from the SPV; large or heavily exposed ones probably no. Signing of Asia Reassurance Initiative Act a welcome, well- Q: How do you see the future of JCPOA, timed move Ted Grover, The Manila if the EU fails to make SPV operational? Times, January 20, 2019 A: Since the beginning, the success of the President Trump’s December 31 signing of JCPOA was linked to the possibility to re- the Asia Reassurance Initiative Act (ARIA) launch the Iranian economy. Today, U.S. is a robust statement of America’s secondary sanctions are jeopardizing this commitment to the Indo-Pacific and result and the failure to offer a meaningful should be applauded. It is also well-timed implementation of the SPV could only amid the various challenges and worsen this state of things. On the other opportunities that Asia provides to the hand, the establishment of the SPV United States. mechanism is of great political significance in itself. As Ms. Mogherini said, it provides Detractors of the new law may think it is the Iranian leadership with the incentive to alarmist, antagonistic towards China, ill- remain committed to the JCPOA; at the same conceived, unnecessary or simply too little, time, is another sign of the European too late. While no legislation is perfect, willingness to support the nuclear deal ARIA is an earnest follow up to Obama’s despite U.S. opposition. Worth noting, the Asia Pivot, providing a solid platform for U.S. administration has already announced America’s renewed commitment to Asia. its readiness to ‘aggressively pursue our Other China-related challenges include the remedies’ ‘if there are transactions that go militarization of the South China Sea, the through [the SPV mechanism] that have the 21st century space race, the Belt and Road intent of evading our [U.S.] sanctions’. Initiative infrastructure development strategy, the Made In China 2025 Q: Can Iran’s economic transactions and manufacturing blueprint and Beijing’s operations with other JCPOA signatories race to become the undisputed leader in Russia and China materialize Iran’s goals science, quantum computing, AI and under JCPOA? military prowess.

A: Iran’s trade relations with Russia and the https://www.manilatimes.net/signing-of-asia- PRC, as well as with India and other reassurance-initiative-act-a-welcome-well- countries, can play an important role in timed-move/499045/ dealing with Teheran’s economic needs. Russia and China have little political There’s good reason to fear Iran’s incentive in supporting the U.S. position and global reach Yonah Alexander and – not surprisingly – they have already Milton Hoenig, Times of Israel, January 25, expressed their favor to the SPV mechanism. 2019 Stronger ties with Russia and China can also be a ‘backup option’ in the event of an SPV As the international community marks the failure. The implementation of China’s One 38th anniversary of the Ayatollah’s rise of Belt One Road initiative is another revolutionary regime, the persistent key potentially positive development for the question is whether Iran’s regional and Iranian economy. However, as far as one of global security challenges — ranging from the aims of the JCPOA was establishing terrorism to nuclear ambitions — will better relations between Teheran and the continue to persist for the remainder of the 59 Nuclear, Missile & Space Digest

21st century. Make no mistake. The short witnessing a renewed strategic answer is potentially yes if the current competition between the three superpower unfolding Teheran’s intentions, capabilities, states of the United States, Russia, and and actions are any guidance. China. The United States also faces a nuclear rivalry with regional powers like Clearly, Iran has the intention of operating North Korea, which continues to out of Syria as the center of its arms trade. It modernize its arsenal, and Iran, which seeks a permanent military presence with could pursue an intercontinental-range the intention to establish a land corridor ballistic missile (ICBM). through Iraq and Syria to the sea. Whether Israel can successfully block the ambitions In response to the threat from “rogue of Gen. Qasem Soleimani and the states” and “revisionist powers,” the 2019 Revolutionary Guard Corps’ elite Quds United States Missile Defense Review Force remains to be seen. Will US President (MDR), released by the United States Donald Trump’s withdrawal of American Department of Defense (DoD), has troops from Syria enhance Iran’s influence asserted that it seeks to detect and destroy as an ally of Assad against opposition groups “any type of target” either “before or after and the Islamic State and a supplier of oil to launch.” The MDR states an intention in Russia? the United States to develop high-end capabilities like space based sensors for To be sure, Iran must be brought into a launch detection, modified interceptors for realization of the need to curb its hegemonic the F-35, and drones with mounted lasers intention. Whether the withdrawal of the to exercise boost-phase interception US from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal (the capability. JCPOA) in May 2018 with the re-imposition of US sanctions last November will modify https://thediplomat.com/2019/01/the-us-2019- the behavior of Iran remains to be seen, as it missile-defense-review-a-view-from-asia/ deals with the growing impact on its economy. The Iranian economy is Saving NATO New York Times, prospected to contract by 3.6 percent in 2019 January 26, 2019 with the re-imposition of the US economic sanctions, while its daily oil export has The idea that the United States could already dropped from 2.7 million barrels to withdraw from NATO is surreal. The 1.7-1.9 million barrels by September 2018. alliance, now numbering 29 countries, has Would negotiations and compromise been the foundation of trans-Atlantic suffice? This may not be the time for that stability and prosperity for seven decades. approach. But would the alternatives of It continues to keep a predatory Russia at extreme pressure and the threat of regime bay and diminish the danger that change alter Grand Ayatollah Khamenei’s American soldiers might once again have objectives and Iran’s behavior? to fight on European soil.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/theres-good-reason- Yet in Donald Trump’s go-it-alone to-fear-irans-global-reach/ presidency, the possibility of America’s withdrawal has become such a concern The US 2019 Missile Defense that Congress is taking steps to prevent it. The Democratic-led House on Jan. 22 Review: A View From Asia Joy Mitra, voted 357-22 for a bipartisan bill that The Diplomat, January 25, 2019 would tie Mr. Trump’s hands by refusing On the heels of the first and the second him any federal money to pay the costs of nuclear ages, respectively shaped by bipolar leaving the alliance. nuclear competition and nuclear nonproliferation concerns, the dawn of a It seems obvious that leaving NATO would “third nuclear age,” a much-debated be a foreign policy debacle, eroding concept, seems incumbent with the world American influence in Europe and 60 Volume 11, Number 03 February 15, 2019

emboldening Vladimir Putin, the Russian The use of non-state actors to supplement leader, who wants to weaken NATO so he military capability has led to destabilising can expand his political and military sway. society and inviting serious international Despite all that, there is no sign that Mitch strictures. No doubt, of late Pakistan has McConnell, the Senate majority leader, enacted laws and ensured that these would stop such a move if Mr. Trump were organisations are banned and their to make it, as he has repeatedly threatened activists do not remerge under new names. to do. But India would still try to keep the episode alive for propaganda purposes. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/26/opinion/ sunday/nato-trump.html https://tribune.com.pk/story/1899593/6-india- pakistan-need-engage/ India and Pakistan need to engage Talat Masood, The Express Tribune, January Revitalizing Nuclear Security in 30, 2019 an Era of Uncertainty, Harward Ever since PM Imran Khan has assumed Kennedy Centre Matthew Bunn office he has made several statements and Nickolas Roth William H. Tobey, Belfer sincere overtures to normalise relations with Centre, January 2019 India. The previous PML-N government was Few tasks could be more important than equally keen to improve relations. In fact, keeping nuclear weapons and their PM Modi made a surprise visit to Lahore on essential ingredients out of terrorist hands. his way back from Russia and a stopover in The world community has made Afghanistan in December 2015. It was substantial progress in improving security significant that it was the first trip to Pakistan for such stocks since the early 1990s, by an Indian leader since 2004, even, if it including through the nuclear security was in response to an invitation of then PM summits in 2010-2016. Nawaz Sharif for a family wedding. It augured well for both countries and the Since the 2016 Nuclear Security Summit, region. But the goodwill was not to last too countries have continued to take long. An attack on a base in Pathankot in measurable steps to improve nuclear Punjab state in January 2016 and on an army security, from requiring protections base at URI in Indian-Occupied Kashmir in against cyber attacks to launching September of the same year gave PM Modi programs to strengthen security culture in an opportunity to blame Pakistan. nuclear organizations. But momentum is slowing, raising serious doubts as to Since then the Indian government has taken whether national leaders are fulfilling their a highly antagonistic stance against commitment to continue to make nuclear Pakistan. The more troubling aspect is that security a priority. High-level political PM Modi exploited Pakistan-bashing as a attention to nuclear security and means for gaining support during last year’s overcoming obstacles has largely faded, Indian state elections. Most analysts are of international mechanisms for fostering the view that his hostile attitude would nuclear security action and cooperation persist at least until the forthcoming general have not managed to fill the gap created national elections due in April-May this year. by the absence of nuclear security And Pakistan should wait it out until then. summits, and political disputes continue PM Khan in some of his recent statements to impede efforts to sustain or expand has voiced similar views. Pakistan has taken cooperation in crucial areas. At the same definite measures to tighten control on time, stockpiles of nuclear weapons and militant organisations such as Lashkar-e- materials in unstable regions continue to Taiba that is accused by India of attacking grow and to shift in directions that military and civilian targets notably the 2001 increase risks. Terrorist threats and Indian parliament attack. important nuclear security weaknesses 61 Nuclear, Missile & Space Digest

exist that must be addressed. Additionally, Hitachi debacle strengthens rapidly evolving technologies such as cyber Franco-Chinese hand in UK and drones could increase adversary threats nuclear Geert De Clercq, Reuters, to nuclear facilities and stocks in the years January 18, 2019 to come. If nuclear security improvements do not keep pace, the risk of nuclear Hitachi’s decision to freeze its $28 billion terrorism is likely to grow. nuclear power project in Britain strengthens the hand of France’s EDF and https://www.belfercenter.org/sites/default/files/ its Chinese partner in talks with the 2019-01/RevitalizingNuclearSecurity.pdf government on how to finance new reactors. Funding new nuclear plants has EDITORIAL: New U.S. missile become critical as Hitachi became the defense strategy could launch space second Japanese firm to say its British arms race The Asahi Shimbun, nuclear power project had hit the buffers January 22, 2019 over financing. The two projects would have covered about 13 percent of Britain’s U.S. President Donald Trump’s new missile power needs. defense strategy has raised the disturbing prospect of a futile arms race in space. The EDF and its partner China General Trump administration has released its Nuclear Power Corporation (CGN) want Missile Defense Review, a document to use a financing model under which describing the U.S. medium-term strategy investors in their nuclear projects receive for missile defense. The previous missile payment from the moment they start defense review, announced in 2010 by then construction, reducing their risk. But to President Barack Obama, focused on the proceed with this approach, the threats posed by ballistic missiles developed government must first win over by North Korea and Iran. But the new lawmakers and consumers, already strategy is marked by its emphasis on the frustrated by hefty energy bills and costly active use of space to counter hypersonic nuclear projects that often face delays. weapons and other new military technologies being developed by Russia and https://in.reuters.com/article/us-hitachi- China. nuclear-edf-analysis/hitachi-debacle-strength- ens-franco-chinese-hand-in-uk-nuclear- Hypersonic weapons are systems that are idINKCN1PB2II capable of traveling at speeds of Mach 5 or faster and difficult to be detected or Trump’s space missile defense intercepted by ground-based radar systems. plan to keep eye on China, N. The new review calls for deploying space- Korea The Asahi Shimbun, based sensors to detect missile launches and January 17, 2019 track flying missiles along with space-based interceptors to destroy them immediately WASHINGTON—The Trump after they are launched. But shooting down administration will roll out a new strategy missiles flying at such high speeds is a Thursday for a more aggressive space- formidable technological challenge, to say based missile defense system to protect the least, and it is anyone’s guess as to how against existing threats from North Korea much money is needed to develop such a and Iran and counter advanced weapon system. There can be no space-based missile systems being developed by Russia and defense system capable of providing a China. Details about the administration’s reliable shield against high-speed missiles for Missile Defense Review—the first the vast expanse of the United States and compiled since 2010—are expected to be its allies. released during U.S. President Donald Trump’s visit to the Pentagon with top http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/ members of his administration. AJ201901220021.html 62 Volume 11, Number 03 February 15, 2019

The new review concludes that in order to missiles should be sped up, provided that adequately protect America, the Pentagon quality is not affected, President Tsai Ing- must expand defense technologies in space wen (!…ñ‚‡e) said yesterday, adding that and use those systems to more quickly detect, higher production rates are needed as the track and ultimately defeat incoming Chinese military threat grows. Tsai made missiles. Recognizing the potential concerns the remarks during a visit to the surrounding any perceived weaponization Chungshan Institute of Science and of space, the strategy pushes for studies. No Technology with National Security testing is mandated, and no final decisions Council Secretary-General David Lee have been made. Specifically, the United (Ng’Y-}), Minister of National Defense Yen States is looking at putting a layer of sensors De-fa (´V·_|v) and Chief of General Staff in space to more quickly detect enemy Lee Hsi-ming (NgœUf) to boost morale missiles when they are launched, according among research staff. The officials were to a senior administration official, who briefed on the mass production of missiles briefed reporters Wednesday. The United before inspecting the facility. States sees space as a critical area for advanced, next-generation capabilities to This year marks the 50th anniversary of stay ahead of the threats, said the official, the institute’s founding and personnel who spoke on condition of anonymity to should be commended for embodying the disclose details of the review before it was founding spirit of the institute: to ensure released. Taiwan’s defense autonomy and national security in the face of changing external http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/ circumstances, Tsai said. The Tien Kung AJ201901170029.html III and Hsiung Feng III missiles, which help Taiwan maintain a formidable defense, Editorial: US should work with China, are the pride of the institute, but their Russia for missile disarmament success is due to the diligence of Mainichi Japan, January 19, 2019 generations of researchers, Tsai said. “The institute’s researchers laid the foundation The world appears to one step closer to for its success by daring to brave the confrontation. The U.S. administration of challenges they faced and learning from President Donald Trump has announced the their failures,” she said, citing the first Missile Defense Review (MDR) in nine institute’s motto: unwavering patriotism, years since 2010, revealing a plan to innovative creativity, pragmatic establish a missile defense (MD) system application of the scientific method and utilizing space that far exceeds the the spirit of teamwork. capabilities of Russia or China. The United States, China and Russia are all developing As the commander-in-chief of the armed hypersonic missiles capable of flying at forces, Tsai said she is well aware of the speeds exceeding Mach 5, and Russia institute’s importance and has increased revealed the hypersonic glider Avangard its funding. She said she has also sought with a top speed of Mach 20 or higher. The to improve relations between the institute new weapon is said to be able to penetrate and the Ministry of National Defense to existing MD systems. ensure that the institute’s knowledge would find suitable applications. Tsai https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20190119/p2a/ called on Yen, who doubles as the 00m/0na/019000c institute’s chairman, and Deputy Minister of National Defense Chang Kuan-chun to Tsai orders faster missile carefully plan the future development of production Lo Tien-pin and Jake Chung, the institute, focusing on expediting the Taipei Times, Jan 26, 2019 manufacturing of quality missiles.

Production of Tien Kung III (“Sky Bow III”) http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/ and Hsiung Feng III (“Brave Wind III”) archives/2019/01/26/2003708664 63 Nuclear, Missile & Space Digest

US missile defense plan reveals targeted by a hacker who got control of illusion disguised as safety net speakers built into the camera. Nest, which Global Times, January 18, 2019 is owned by Google-parent Alphabet, told AFP that incidents of commandeered US President Donald Trump laid out his camera control in recent months were the administration’s Missile Defense Review result of hackers using passwords stolen during a speech at the Pentagon on from other online venues. Reported Thursday local time, declaring the US will incidents involving Nest cameras in the develop a more advanced defense system to US include a seemingly well-intended counter hypersonic and cruise missile hacker telling someone that his data was threats from competitors and exposed. adversaries.Trump also said the US will do whatever it takes “to ensure that we can http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/ detect and destroy any missile launched 1136836.shtml against the United States anywhere, anytime, any place.” Editorial: Why arms control won’t work with North Korea or Iran The Missile Defense Review makes clear the Eli Lake, Korea Herald, January 30, 2019 system will be aimed at protecting the US against existing threats from North Dan Coats, the US director of national Korea and Iran, and countering advanced intelligence, appeared to undermine two weaponry developed by Russia and China. premises of President Donald Trump’s foreign policy on Tuesday. First he said Today, US missile defense systems have a that North Korea was not likely to give up greater presence in many countries and its nuclear weapons. Then he said that Iran regions. Chinese and Russian targets are was still complying with the international within its range, a vital component of the agreement to pause its own nuclear Terminal High Altitude Area Defense program. This was the instant headline for (THAAD) system found in neighboring most news organizations. Yet again, countries. Additionally, the Aegis Ballistic Trump’s rhetoric is disconnected from the Missile Defense System (aka Sea-Based facts presented by the professionals serving Midcourse) is connected to THAAD, helping in his administration. Some Democrats to make it even more efficient. pounced.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/ This political point-scoring is too easy — 1136183.shtml and misses a larger point on the policy. Trump’s critics might want to ask Google’s Nest camera hacked themselves a question: If he is wrong to broadcasts hoax nuclear attack alert seek a deal with North Korea, was Obama to terrified family Global Times wrong to have pursued one with Iran? January 23, 2019 Conversely, if the Iran agreement was worth doing, then why isn’t one with Nest urged owners of its security cameras North Korea? To be sure, there are Tuesday to use enhanced authentication to important differences between the two thwart hackers, after one terrified a family nations. Iran has never fielded or tested a with a hoax nuclear missile attack. A couple nuclear weapon, and North Korea has. living in a California town told local media North Korea has not sought to train and they experienced “sheer terror” over the equip militias throughout Northeast Asia, weekend when a Nest security camera atop the way that Iran has done in the Middle their family’s television issued a realistic- East. sounding warning of missiles heading to the United States from North Korea. http://www.koreaherald.com/ view.php?ud=20190130000238&ACE_SEARCH=1 The couple and their frightened child eventually figured out they had been 64 Volume 11, Number 03 February 15, 2019

Statement on the INF Treaty and prioritization. Ultimately, not every need Recommendations for Managing the will or can be met. Both Moscow and Fallout of U.S. Withdrawal Pranay Beijing will likely outpace any U.S. Vaddi, George Perkovich, Carnegie Endowment deployments of intermediate-range missiles, especially over the next decade, for International Peace, January 30, 2019 making an arms race unwise and costly Heralded by president Ronald Reagan as for the United States. holding universal significance for humankind, the IntermediateRange Nuclear https://carnegieendowment.org/2019/01/30/ Forces (INF) Treaty between the United statement-on-inf-treaty-and-recommendations- for-managing-fallout-of-u.s.-withdrawal-pub- States and the then Soviet Union was the 78249 first agreement to eliminate an entire class of nuclear weapons delivery systems, prohibiting short-flight-time missiles with Leaving the INF Treaty Won’t ranges between 500 and 5,500 kilometers, Help Trump Counter China Pranay which were particularly threatening to Vaddi, Carnegie Endowment for Europe. In 2014, the United States International Peace, January 31, 2019 determined that a new Russian ground- On October 20, 2018, U.S. President launched cruise missile, the SSC8/9M729, Donald Trump announced his intention violated the treaty, and Washington to withdraw the United States from the unsuccessfully attempted to resolve the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) issue. The Trump administration has Treaty, the landmark 1987 arms control decided to withdraw from the treaty to agreement that prohibits cruise and develop its own noncompliant missile ballistic missiles with range capabilities systems. Why Does This Issue Matter? between 500 and 5,500 kilometers. Regional Security Implications for U.S. and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s sixty-day Allied Militaries: With NATO-Russia deadline for Russia to return to relations worse than at any time since the compliance by February 2 has set the stage Cold War, withdrawing from the treaty for the United States to begin the without a strategy supported by allies to withdrawal process once this ultimatum contest Russian coercion and restore stability passes. in Europe poses severe political and military problems for the United States and its U.S. officials say that the major reason for European allies. U.S. withdrawal will withdrawing is to contest China’s growing exacerbate missile proliferation in Asia military power and assertiveness. They without improving U.S. security in the argue that the United States needs to Pacific. U.S. standing with its Asian regional deploy conventional ground-based, allies—including Japan, South Korea, intermediate-range missile systems (GBIRs) Australia, Taiwan, and India—could be against China2—systems that the INF further reduced without a comprehensive Treaty prohibits the United States from regional security strategy that those allies fielding. And because Beijing is not a party support. to the treaty, officials argue, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has a tremendous Leaving the INF Treaty will unleash a new advantage. missile competition between the United States and Russia. The U.S. nuclear weapons China presents a real military challenge modernization budget is projected to cost to the United States. The PLA’s advanced $494 billion between 2019 and 2028, with integrated defenses against U.S. air, some estimates putting the thirty-year cost missile, and naval capabilities include at $1.7 trillion, even before adding in new substantial numbers of Chinese GBIRs, intermediaterange missiles. U.S. strategic which create a high-risk environment for competition with Russia and China is U.S. forces that stretches thousands of driving military cost increases, but this kilometers from the Chinese coast into the competition will require long-term Pacific. In the event of a conflict, such anti- 65 Nuclear, Missile & Space Digest

access/area denial (A2/AD) capabilities acknowledge and analyze developments could give China the ability to severely in the cyber domain, to articulate the impede U.S. forces surging west to defend Chinese perspective on cyberspace allies, as well as U.S. naval and air forces governance with Chinese characteristics, operating in China’s periphery. and subsequently to promote the Consequently, China’s A2/AD systems may development of a strategic thought prevent the large-scale operations necessary “keenly grasping the historic opportunity to attack PLA operations against allied for informatization development in a bid territory or forces in the South or East China to build the country’s strength in Seas, or, if necessary, PLA forces carrying cyberspace.” Xi has underscored the out strikes from the Chinese mainland. centrality of this front for China’s development, noting that “the https://carnegieendowment.org/2019/01/31/ development of cybersecurity and leaving-inf-treaty-won-t-help-trump-counter- informatization should contribute to china-pub-78262 China’s drive to develop a modernized economy and achieve high-quality Chinese-American Relations in development, and to the new model of Cyberspace: Toward Collaboration industrialization, urbanization, and or Confrontation? Ariel (Eli) Levite, Lyu agricultural modernization.” He Jinghua, Carnegie Endowment for elaborated further on his cyberspace International Peace, January 24, 2019 vision, saying that “efforts should also be made to develop the digital economy, Cyberspace has evolved in recent years to promote deep integration between the become a critical area of international internet, big data, artificial intelligence, relations, much as the high seas and and real economy, and make the aerospace did in earlier centuries. manufacturing, agriculture, and service Cyberspace may be even more important sectors more digitalized, smart, and for international relations going forward internet-powered. because cyberspace is global, not easily demarcated into domestic and international https://carnegieendowment.org/2019/01/24/ spheres, and cuts across almost all human chinese-american-relations-in-cyberspace- activities. Indeed, as an ever-larger toward-collaboration-or-confrontation-pub- percentage of human activity migrates to 78213 cyberspace, individuals, groups, corporations, and nation-states are The INF Quandary: Preventing a becoming increasingly dependent on it. Nuclear Arms Race in Europe Taken together these trends endow activities Ulrich Kühn, Pavel Zolotarev, William and developments in and through Tobey, Carnegie Endowment for cyberspace with an ever-greater capacity to International Peace, January 24, 2019 affect the lives and fortunes of all. What happens in cyberspace can help or harm the The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces, order and well-being within states as well or INF, Treaty, signed by U.S. President as the stability and prosperity of the Ronald Reagan and Soviet Communist international system writ large. Party General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev in 1987, was a profound The United States has been on the forefront achievement. It was the first bilateral of the cyber revolution from day one. China nuclear arms control treaty to ban an is a relative latecomer to this domain, but it entire class of weapons. It contained is rapidly catching up. This is not an accident verification innovations such as but rather the outcome of a conscious continuous perimeter-portal monitoring. Chinese strategy. On numerous occasions in The diplomatic and technical experience recent years, the Chinese leadership in gained from the treaty made possible the general and President Xi Jinping in first Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty particular have gone to great lengths to (START I) and the Treaty on Conventional 66 Volume 11, Number 03 February 15, 2019

Armed Forces in Europe, or CFE. Most could pressure the country being attacked importantly, the INF Treaty reversed into using its nuclear weapons before they dangerous military trends in Europe that had were disabled. To give another example, left both sides less secure than they had been several states, including China and Russia, before such systems were deployed. Now the are developing and deploying increasingly treaty—formally called the Treaty Between long-range missiles that can carry nuclear the United States of America and the Union or nonnuclear warheads. Such missiles of Soviet Socialist Republics on the create the risk that a nuclear weapon Elimination of Their Intermediate-Range could be mistaken for a non-nuclear and Shorter-Range Missiles—faces an weapon, or vice versa. In a conflict, if one existential threat posed by compliance issues state mistook nuclear-armed missiles as that have prompted a U.S. decision to nonnuclear and attacked them, the withdraw from it unless its concerns are allayed. Who coined the term?

Arms-control-treaty compliance problems As best I can tell, the term “entanglement” are intrinsically important because they can was first used by the American political corrode both trust and strategic stability. scientist John Steinbruner in 2000. Others Moreover, if the INF Treaty falls apart, it will had written on the same subject previously, have a profound impact on the U.S.-Russian but hadn’t used that word. Steinbruner strategic relationship, with implications for was describing how a U.S.-Russian conflict all of Europe and likely beyond. It will affect might escalate. He pointed out that assets how both sides analyze decisions on vital to Russia’s nuclear deterrent, such as extending the New START Treaty, which is early-warning radars, would be located due to expire in 2021. It will likely foreclose close to a military confrontation in Central for the foreseeable future any possibility that Europe. another nuclear arms control treaty could be ratified by the U.S. Senate. It will likely Nuclear Emulation: Pakistan’s Nuclear prompt deployment of new military systems, Trajectory and consequent responses. It will spark Toby Dalton, Sadia Tasleem controversy both in the U.S. Congress and between the United States and its allies. “The more it changes, the more it stays Finally, it would constitute decisive evidence the same”—Jean-Baptiste Alphonse Karr that the United States and Russia have could well have been writing his famous returned to a nuclear competition that was epigram about Pakistan’s nuclear in abeyance for over two decades. deterrence policy. For a nuclear program https://carnegieendowment.org/2019/01/24/inf- some have called the “fastest growing in quandary-preventing-nuclear-arms-race-in- the world,” how can this axiom apply? europe-pub-78302 After declaring a strategy in the early 2000s of “minimum credible deterrence,” Why Is Nuclear Entanglement So to deter a perceived existential threat from India, in 2013 Pakistan announced that Dangerous? James M. Acton, Carnegie henceforth it would adopt a “full spectrum Endowment for International Peace,, deterrence capability,” 1 backed by a suite January 23, 2019 of air-, land- and sea-based nuclear What is entanglement? delivery vehicles that Islamabad tested over the last decade. These include short- Entanglement describes how militaries’ range, “tactical” missiles that are postured nuclear and non-nuclear capabilities are to deter “limited” Indian conventional becoming dangerously intertwined. In a military operations, and longer-range conventional war, for example, one state missiles that might be used either for could use non-nuclear weapons to attack its countervalue or counterforce targeting. adversary’s nuclear weapons or their This is a picture of a nuclear arsenal in full command-and-control systems. Such strikes bloom, whose growth probes the limits of 67 Nuclear, Missile & Space Digest

what can be deterred with the threat of Spanish ministry and the Nuclear Safety nuclear use. Council (CSN), Spain’s nuclear regulator. The operator plans to apply for a lifetime But looking beyond new terminology and extension of all three units beyond the more advanced weapons systems, there are current 40-year license. threads of a consistent logic driving Pakistan’s nuclear decision making. For https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/ Pakistani officials and scholars, increasing iaea-concludes-long-term-operational-safety- and diversifying Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal review-at-spains-asco-and-vandellos-nuclear- is not seen as a policy choice, but rather a power-plants compulsion to maintain an effective deterrent vis-à-vis India. Any advances in Presidential Candidates Need a India’s conventional military capability, Plan for Reducing Nuclear nuclear arsenal, or strategic position amplify Terrorism Risks Matthew Bunn, the perception of an incessant and Nickolas Roth, William H. Tobey, The Hill, unremitting threat for which Pakistan has January 29, 2019 no recourse other than nuclear weapons. In this view, deterrence is more relative and As presidential candidates hit the elastic than fixed; “full-spectrum” campaign trail this year, voters should ask capabilities provide a way to keep up and them: “What’s your plan for keeping ensure that Pakistan’s deterrence remains nuclear weapons and the materials to credible, rather than a new strategy as such. make them out of terrorist hands?” Every candidate who is serious about national https://carnegieendowment.org/2019/01/22/ security should have an answer to that nuclear-emulation-pakistan-s-nuclear-trajectory- question; every president for more than pub-78215 two decades, including Donald Trump, has described nuclear terrorism as one of IAEA Concludes Long-Term the gravest dangers the United States faces. Operational Safety Review at There should be no disagreement between Spain’s Ascó and Vandellós Nuclear Republicans and Democrats — or between Power Plants International Atomic Energy the United States and other countries — when it comes to measures to prevent Agency, January 24, 2019 terrorists from ever getting and using a An International Atomic Energy Agency nuclear bomb or sabotaging a major (IAEA) team of experts yesterday completed nuclear facility. a review of long-term operational safety at the Ascó and Vandellós Nuclear Power Strengthening security for nuclear Plants (NPPs) in Spain. weapons and materials is the most effective way to reduce the risk of nuclear terrorism, The Pre-SALTO (Safety Aspects of Long but as we document in a new report, Term Operation) review mission was “Revitalizing Nuclear Security in an Era requested by ANAV (Asociación Nuclear of Uncertainty,” global efforts to do so are Ascó Vandellós II A.I.E.), which operates losing momentum. That is creating a both power plants. dangerous new era — one in which uncertainty about how terrorist threats The 12-member team, whose review began might evolve is growing, and it is not clear on 15 January, focused on aspects essential if nuclear security protections against to the safe Long-Term Operation (LTO) of them will keep pace. Units 1 and 2 at Ascó and Unit 2 at Vandellós, which respectively went into https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/ commercial operation in 1984, 1986 and 426689-presidential-candidates-need-a-plan-for- 1988. The operator is preparing a license reducing-nuclear-terrorism renewal application to the competent 68 Volume 11, Number 03 February 15, 2019

Can the Pentagon Build a Bridge to In launching the review, President the Tech Community? David Ignatius, Trump was careful to emphasize that the Belfer Center, January 24, 2019 system is designed to defend against missiles “launched against the United As the age of artificial intelligence transforms States, anywhere, anytime, any place.” warfare, the Pentagon faces a delicate The review states that Russian and problem: How does it convince employees Chinese missiles are part of “the realities of high-tech companies based in the United of the emerging missile threat States that Americans are still the “good environment” that American missile guys,” so that they’ll lend their talents to U.S. defense “must address. national security projects? https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/ The challenge is huge, given that Google, 426392-missile-defense-review-makes-us-less- Microsoft, Amazon, Apple and other tech safe giants see themselves as global companies with workers drawn from many nations. But 2019 MISSILE DEFENSE REVIEW tapping this talent base is essential for U.S. security — and fortunately, the Pentagon, Missile defense is an essential component after some false starts, is launching a creative of U.S. national security and defense effort to win the trust of suspicious software strategies. It contributes to the deterrence engineers who grew up in the shadow of of adversary aggression and the assurance Edward Snowden’s revelations. of allies and partners. It also strengthens U.S. diplomacy, protects against missile The basic idea is to do AI “the American attacks to limit damage, supports U.S. way,” as people used to say, by framing a military operations if deterrence fails, set of clear, ethical rules through public hedges against future uncertainties and debate. This AI Principles Project was risks, and helps to preserve U.S. and allied launched in October by the Pentagon’s freedom of action to meet and defeat Defense Innovation Board. The first major regional adversary aggression. public meeting took place on Tuesday at Harvard, where Pentagon officials met with This 2019 Missile Defense Review (MDR) about a dozen AI experts, some of them is consistent with the 2017 NSS, the 2018 strong critics of U.S. military actions. National Defense Strategy (NDS), and the 2018 Nuclear Posture Review (NPR). It https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/can- describes the policies, strategies, and pentagon-build-bridge-tech-community capabilities that will guide the Department of Defense (DoD) missile Missile Defense Review makes US defense programs to counter the less safe Benjamin Zala, The Hill, expanding missile threats posed by rogue states and revisionist powers to us, our January 25, 2019 allies, and partners, including ballistic and The Pentagon’s repeatedly delayed Missile cruise missiles, and hypersonic vehicles. It Defense Review finally has been released. recognizes and highlights the important Defense analysts and think tankers are changes that have taken place in the poring over it, debating the pros and cons security environment since the previous of its various announcements. Yet the most 2010 Ballistic Missile Defense Review was important aspect of the document so far has conducted, as well as the considerable received the least amount of sustained uncertainties about the future threat attention. This is the explicit admission in environment. the review of what critics of missile defense, including Russia and China, have asserted This 2019 MDR is based on recognition for 20 years: that the U.S. missile defense that the threat environment is markedly system ultimately is aimed at defending more dangerous than in years past and against the arsenals of other nuclear-armed demands a concerted U.S. effort to major powers. improve existing capabilities for both 69 Nuclear, Missile & Space Digest

homeland and regional missile defense. This To address this crisis, Ford effort will include a vigorous science and recently announced a new approach to technology research program in addition to nuclear disarmament. Rejecting the the exploration of innovative concepts and traditional step-by-step reductions advanced technologies that have the that U.S. officials and allies have long potential to provide more cost-effective U.S. promoted, and even more strongly defenses against expanding missile threats. rejecting the path offered by the 2017 Nuclear Ban Treaty (which he called https://www.defense.gov/Portals/1/Interactive/ “emptily divisive virtue-signaling”), Ford 2018/11-2019-Missile-Defense-Review/ revealed the establishment of the “Creating The%202019%20MDR_Executive%20Summary.pdf the Conditions Working Group.”

The War That Will Decide Israel’s https://warontherocks.com/2019/01/can-this- Future Won’t Involve Airstrikes, new-approach-to-nuclear-disarmament-work/ Tanks or Missiles Chuck Freilich Harteez, January 23, 2019 We have 30 years before enlightened Israel sinks into poor and illiberal darkness. This time, the threat is a militant religious fundamentalism of our own

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/elections/ .premium-the-war-that-will-decide-israel-s- future-won-t-involve-air-strikes-tanks-or-missile- 1.6869482

Can This New Approach to Nuclear Disarmament Work? Rebecca Davis Gibbons, War On The Rocks, Jan. 23, 2019 An estimated 14,485 nuclear weapons exist on earth today — most are far more powerful than those that twisted railway ties, leveled buildings, and crushed, poisoned, and burned human beings in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The majority of these weapons belong to the United States and Russia. For some in the U.S. government, including Chris Ford, assistant secretary at the State Department’s Bureau of International Security and Nonproliferation, this number represents significant disarmament progress since Cold War highs of over 70,000 nuclear weapons. They argue the current security environment means that further reductions are not possible at this time. In contrast, for many disarmament advocates and officials from non-nuclear weapons states, this number is still far too high. They are now clamoring to ban all nuclear weapons. Because of this divide, according to Ford, we currently face a “disarmament crisis.” 70 Volume 11, Number 03 February 15, 2019

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Ms Deepika Sharma Ms Diya Deep Singh Ms Raj Rajeshwari Singh

Indian Pugwash Society

No.1, Development Enclave, Rao Tula Ram Marg, Near USI, Delhi-110010 Tel. No (91-11) 2671-7983 Fax No. (91-11)2615-4192 Email: [email protected]