Earthquakes Increase Flood Hazard in Christchurch, New Zealand

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Earthquakes Increase Flood Hazard in Christchurch, New Zealand MARCH/APRIL | VOL. 25, 3–4 2015 NO. A PUBLICATION OF THE GEOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA® The sinking city: Earthquakes increase flood hazard in Christchurch, New Zealand MARCH/APRIL 2015 | VOLUME 25, NUMBER 3–4 Featured Article GSA TODAY (ISSN 1052-5173 USPS 0456-530) prints news and information for more than 26,000 GSA member readers and subscribing libraries, with 11 monthly issues (March/ April is a combined issue). GSA TODAY is published by The SCIENCE ARTICLE: Geological Society of America® Inc. (GSA) with offices at 3300 Penrose Place, Boulder, Colorado, USA, and a mail- 4 The sinking city: Earthquakes increase ing address of P.O. Box 9140, Boulder, CO 80301-9140, USA. flood hazard in Christchurch, New Zealand GSA provides this and other forums for the presentation of diverse opinions and positions by scientists worldwide, Matthew W. Hughes et al. regardless of race, citizenship, gender, sexual orientation, Cover: Aerial view of the suburbs of Bexley and New religion, or political viewpoint. Opinions presented in this Brighton in eastern Christchurch, New Zealand, looking publication do not reflect official positions of the Society. east to the Pacific Ocean on the day after the 22 February © 2015 The Geological Society of America Inc. All rights 2011 M 6.2 Christchurch earthquake. Expulsion of sand reserved. Copyright not claimed on content prepared W wholly by U.S. government employees within the scope of and groundwater during earthquake-induced liquefaction their employment. Individual scientists are hereby granted and related surface subsidence of >30 cm caused flooding in permission, without fees or request to GSA, to use a single this area and increased long-term flood hazard. Residential figure, table, and/or brief paragraph of text in subsequent dwellings built in Bexley until 2005 (shown in foreground) work and to make/print unlimited copies of items in GSA TODAY for noncommercial use in classrooms to further are being demolished, and the land has been purchased and education and science. In addition, an author has the right “Red Zoned” by the New Zealand central government. to use his or her article or a portion of the article in a thesis Photo by M.C. Quigley. See related article, p. 4–10. or dissertation without requesting permission from GSA, provided the bibliographic citation and the GSA copyright credit line are given on the appropriate pages. For any other use, contact [email protected]. Subscriptions: GSA members: Contact GSA Sales & Service, +1-888-443-4472; +1-303-357-1000 option 3; gsaservice@ geosociety.org for information and/or to place a claim for non-receipt or damaged copies. 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Hughes, Dept. of Civil & Natural Resources Engineering, (e.g., sea-level rise, storm surges, tsunamis) and terrestrial hazards University of Canterbury, Private Bag 4800, Ilam, Christchurch, New (e.g., surface subsidence and compaction, flooding, erosion, sedi- Zealand; Mark C. Quigley, Dept. of Geological Sciences, University of ment supply changes, groundwater table changes) induced by Canterbury, Private Bag 4800, Ilam, Christchurch, New Zealand; natural and/or anthropogenic processes (Syvitski et al., 2009; Sjoerd van Ballegooy, Bruce L. Deam, Tonkin & Taylor Ltd, PO Box Nicholls and Cazenave, 2010). Coastal population growth and 5271, Wellesley Street, Auckland 1141, New Zealand; Brendon A. concentration, economic development, and urbanization are Bradley, Dept. of Civil & Natural Resources Engineering, University of expected to greatly increase exposure and loss to the impacts of rela- Canterbury, Private Bag 4800, Ilam, Christchurch, New Zealand; tive sea-level rise (Nicholls and Cazenave, 2010; IPCC, 2014) and Deirdre E. Hart, Dept. of Geography, University of Canterbury, Private coastal flooding (Hanson et al., 2011; Hallegatte et al., 2013) through Bag 4800, Ilam, Christchurch, New Zealand; and Richard Measures, the next century, defining one of society’s greatest challenges. National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research (NIWA), PO Box Geospatial data, such as satellite-based synthetic aperture radar and 8602, Christchurch, New Zealand airborne light detection and ranging (LiDAR), are increasingly being used to measure surface subsidence and delineate areas prone ABSTRACT to flood and sea-level rise hazards (Dixon et al., 2006; Wang et al., 2012; Webster et al., 2006), thereby assisting land-use planning Airborne light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data were and management decisions (Brock and Purkis, 2009). acquired over the coastal city of Christchurch, New Zealand, prior Great (MW ≥ 8.5) earthquakes on subduction zones may cause to and throughout the 2010 to 2011 Canterbury Earthquake abrupt and dramatic elevation changes to coastal environments. Sequence. Differencing of pre- and post-earthquake LiDAR data The 1964 MW 9.0 Alaska earthquake caused tidal marshes and reveals land surface and waterway deformation due to seismic wetlands to subside up to 2 m (Shennan and Hamilton, 2006); the shaking and tectonic displacements above blind faults. Shaking 2005 MW 8.7 Nias earthquake caused up to 3 m in coastal uplift caused floodplain subsidence in excess of 0.5 to 1 m along tidal proximal to the trench and 1 m of more distal coastal subsidence stretches of the two main urban rivers, greatly enhancing the (Briggs et al., 2006); and the 2011 MW 9.0 Tohoku earthquake spatial extent and severity of inundation hazards posed by caused subsidence up to 1.2 m along the Pacific Coast of north- 100-year floods, storm surges, and sea-level rise. Additional eastern Japan (Geospatial Information Authority of Japan, 2011, shaking effects included river channel narrowing and shallowing, cited in IPCC, 2014). However, the influence of moderate magni- due primarily to liquefaction, and lateral spreading and sedimen- tude (i.e., MW 6–7) earthquakes, which can occur in both inter- tation, which further increased flood hazard. Differential tectonic plate and intraplate settings, on coastal flood and sea-level movement and associated narrowing of downstream river chan- hazards is not well characterized and not typically included in nels decreased channel gradients and volumetric capacities and studies that assess the future vulnerability of coastal populations increased upstream flood hazards. Flood mitigation along the (McGranahan et al., 2007). large regional Waimakariri River north of Christchurch may have, In this paper, we summarize differential vertical and horizontal paradoxically, increased the long-term flood hazard in the city by ground movements in Christchurch, New Zealand, using airborne halting long-term aggradation of the alluvial plain upon which LiDAR survey data captured prior to, during, and after the 2010 to Christchurch is situated. Our findings highlight the potential for 2011 Canterbury Earthquake Sequence (CES). Differential LiDAR moderate magnitude (MW 6–7) earthquakes to cause major topo- applications in earthquake studies have been used to map defor- graphic changes that influence flood hazard in coastal settings. mation along fault zones (e.g., Duffy et al., 2013; Oskin et al., INTRODUCTION 2012); however, this is the first differential LiDAR study showing the cumulative surface effects of earthquake shaking and faulting 2015 Approximately 10% of the world’s population inhabits low- on an urban environment. Here we show that earthquakes lying (≤10 m above sea level) coastal areas, and most of this popu- sourced from blind and/or
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