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Implications of Climate Change for Northern Ireland: Informing Strategy Development Further Copies of This Report Are Available Priced £12.00

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Implications of Climate Change for Northern Ireland: Informing Strategy Development Further Copies of This Report Are Available Priced £12.00 Implications of Climate Change for Northern Ireland: Informing Strategy Development Further copies of this report are available priced £12.00. Cheques should be made payable to The Stationery Office Ltd and addressed to: The Stationery Office Bookshop 16 Arthur Street Belfast BT1 4GD The views expressed in this document are not necessarily those of SNIFFER, any Northern Ireland Government Department, or of the project Steering Group. SNIFFER’s members, servant or agents accept no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage arising from the interpretation or use of the information, or reliance upon views contained herein. © SNIFFER 2002 All rights are reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise without the prior permission of SNIFFER. This study has been commissioned by the Scotland and Northern Ireland Forum for Environmental Research (SNIFFER) to improve understanding of climate change impacts in Northern Ireland and to assist the Department of the Environment in formulating appropriate policy responses. SNIFFER identifies and manages environmental research on behalf of its members and other stakeholders. The members of SNIFFER (Scottish Environment Protection Agency, Environment and Heritage Service, Scottish Executive, Scottish Natural Heritage, Forestry Commission) have a remit which includes the protection and enhancement of the environment of Scotland or Northern Ireland. Further information on SNIFFER is available at www.sniffer.org.uk Implications of Climate Change for Northern Ireland: Informing Strategy Development Consortium Members Queen’s University Belfast Napier University, Edinburgh Centre for the Study of Environmental Change and Sustainability, University of Edinburgh i Implications of Climate Change for Northern Ireland: Informing Strategy Development Editors Prof. Austin Smyth Transport Research Institute, Napier University Prof. W. Ian Montgomery School of Biology and Biochemistry, Queen’s University Belfast Dr David Favis-Mortlock School of Geography, Queen’s University Belfast Simon Allen Centre for the Study of Environmental Change and Sustainability, University of Edinburgh Authors/Task Managers Task managers are marked* Dr Roy Anderson* DARDNI Newforge/School of Agriculture, Queen’s University Belfast Dr William Beattie* Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Queen’s University Belfast Dr Nicholas L. Betts* School of Geography, Queen’s University Belfast Dr Brenda Boardman Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford Dr Vivienne Crawford* School of Medicine, Queen’s University Belfast Dr David Favis- School of Geography, Queen’s University Belfast Mortlock* Dr David Hughes* Department of Civil Engineering, Queen’s University Belfast Prof. Bob Kalin* School of Civil Engineering, Queen’s University Belfast Dr Jim McAdam* DARDNI Newforge/School of Agriculture, Queen’s University Belfast Dr Loraine McFadden School of Geography, Queen’s University Belfast Simon Allen* Centre for the Study of Environmental Change and Sustainability, University of Edinburgh Prof. W. Ian School of Biology and Biochemistry, Queen’s University Belfast Montgomery* Prof. Julian Orford* School of Geography, Queen’s University Belfast Dr Dai Roberts* School of Biology and Biochemistry, Queen’s University Belfast Dr Alastair Ruffell* School of Geography, Queen’s University Belfast Prof. Austin Smyth Transport Research Institute, Napier University Dr Jude Stephens* Gibson Institute, Queen’s University Belfast Dr Christopher Tweed* School of Architecture, Queen's University Belfast Prof. W. Brian Whalley School of Geography, Queen’s University Belfast ii Implications of Climate Change for Northern Ireland: Informing Strategy Development STEERING GROUP MEMBERS Jennifer Hamilton SNIFFER Dr Penny Bramwell Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Dr Caroline Fish Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Dr Richenda Connell UKCIP Dr Sue Christie Northern Ireland Environment Link Andy McCrea NIE Supply, representing CBI Northern Ireland Rodger Lightbody Environmental Policy Division, Department of the Environment Clifford Henry Environment and Heritage Service, Department of the Environment Dr Howard Platt Environment and Heritage Service, Department of the Environment Nigel McMahon Environment and Heritage Service, Department of the Environment John C Clarke Rivers Agency, Department of Agriculture and Rural Development iii Implications of Climate Change for Northern Ireland: Informing Strategy Development Executive Summary 1. The objectives of this study were to investigate — in broad terms — the likely impacts of climate change on the environment, economy, and natural resources of Northern Ireland; and to assess levels of awareness of climate change, to consider the possibilities of adapting to climate change and to assess policies for mitigating emission of greenhouse gases. Publications were reviewed and organisations and individuals (stakeholders) from the public and private sectors were interviewed. The scenarios of climate change published in 1998 for the UK Climate Impacts Programme were the primary source of information on possible future climates. These were used to guide discussion with stakeholders. 2. Predicted climate changes for Northern Ireland are characterised by warming, rise in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, but seasonal and annual effects are inconsistent and year-to-year variation may confound overall trends. Overall winter gale frequency may decline, although very severe winter gales may increase. Improved models and estimates of the spatial and temporal patterns of climate change will provide more detail of changes. Particular attention must be directed to the repercussions of inter-annual variability and climate extremes. 3. Estimates of sea level change by the 2050s range between 13 cm and 74 cm. The coastal zone will experience rapid change over the next century but stakeholders are largely unaware of how this will affect society in coastal areas. Fisheries are vulnerable to the predicted effects of climate change because seasonal cycles of reproduction in most aquatic species are temperature dependent and sensitive to small changes in temperature over relatively short time scales. Fishing communities in coastal areas and those dependent on sport angling will be most affected. The predicted increase in overall precipitation, particularly winter precipitation and its intensity, will have effects on river basins: in particular on water quality, flooding, and the stability of exposed slopes. 4. Impacts of climate change on the biodiversity of the species-poor but unique ecological communities of Northern Ireland could be considerable, although these may be unnoticed by the general public. Invasion of more southerly, warmth-loving species replacing cold-adapted species at the southernmost edge of their ranges, may occur at different rates depending on habitats and types of species. Such changes are likely to be severely compounded by other impacts of human activity such as habitat fragmentation, agricultural change, invasion by alien species and eutrophication. Sympathetic interpretation and implementation of agricultural policies in, for example, the management of freshwaters or creation of salt marshes would help reduce the impacts of climate change on biodiversity. Impacts on the biodiversity of NI’s raised bogs and blanket bogs are, however, unlikely to be severe. 5. Agriculture is Northern Ireland’s most important industry. Under the predicted climate changes most land will remain in pasture or silage production although increased warmth may encourage a more mixed agriculture including spring-sown cereals. Milder winters may require increased applications of pesticides. Farming in the west may become more marginal as wetter winters adversely affect agricultural activities such as silage/turf cutting, and hay-making. Forestry and agri-forestry may however iv Implications of Climate Change for Northern Ireland: Informing Strategy Development benefit from climate change, offering opportunities to improve the landscape in a continuation of the current shift from upland conifer planting to broad-leaved planting on land displaced from agriculture, and by introduction of trees into farmed landscapes by more novel means. This would help correct a major imbalance in the trade in timber. Recent livestock disease epidemics have led to a questioning of agricultural intensification and to an exploration of possible alternative strategies: the implications of climate change should also inform this debate. 6. Poverty, social inequality, deprivation and social and health policy drive the health sector. Climate change may impact on any or all of these and hence will certainly impact upon health; the complex interrelationships between climate and health are however still not well understood. Climate change may bring both benefits and threats to the health of Northern Ireland, and the balance of harmful and beneficial effects (e.g. a reduction in metabolic bone disease with increased sunlight, offset by an increase in skin malignancy) is currently unknown. Issues of particular concern are the entry of new diseases into Northern Ireland (since increased rain and relative humidity favour the transmission of infection), and a possible increase in rodent-borne diseases. 7. Awareness of climate change in the construction, infrastructure and
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