Se Sour

52 Weeks high/low (HK$) 52 high/low(HK$) 52 Weeks vol. average 3 month m) (HK$ cap. Market (m) issue in Shares 2015F 2014F 2013F 2012A 2011A 12/31 年结 Year End       e 快速 Sales Rapid 公司报告： Company Report:

th ce e ︰

las the Company,the 后 销售的 价同比提高 格稳定和产品组合持续改善。由于 完成全年销售目标 市场预期，但是符合我们预期。公司上半年汽车销售同比增长 201 1. “ 12x reach and we trend, historical to According is that Reiterate SUVs. for image months. brand and competitiveness Therefor weaker relatively to due 2H14. in decrease Geely expect to expected is growth sales Rapid 1.8pps YoYto 19.2%. sales growth of Geely improved. mix s the that suggestingYoY, completing units, increased1H1332.9%ofrevenue (560,000units).Salestarget sales of 263,544 47% to YoY 18.5% increased 1H13 in in but sales Vehicle expected, market than better YoY, 37.2% 1H13 年 倍 其历史季节性波动，我们认为 重申 仍然能 为 Accumulate 的 8

车型 在 t PE 13

x pag 3 销售

“ 2014 13 年

、 年 吉利汽车 earnings 维持 竞争力和品牌形象 快速增长 收集 e 上半年 PB

10 low PE RB m) (RMB , e xet eil sls f el t go rpdy n h nx 12 next the in rapidly grow to Geely of sales vehicle expect we e, fo Turnover

年下半年 增长 r

倍 快速 Guotai International Junan “ ” 35,914 32,2 24,628 20,965 37,785

er 。因此我们维持公司“收集”评级 and1. 11% disclaimer 总股数 Accumulate

” 3 评级

市值 收入 14

的 rating and TP andrating t

个月平均成交股数 EC7 sales to peak in the middle of 2014 and then started to started then and 2014 of middle the in peak to sales EC7 85 average historical its han 增长。 rapid of result a as YoY11% increased 1H13in Geely of ASP 将

13 。公司的毛利率同比提到

盈利 年 beatthe ( 将

00175HK

维持 。 5 56

PE (HK$ m) 开始下滑 x1 PE (m) Geel 周高 现在公司的 维持 Growth Growth 好于 万辆的

、 in the year end of 2013 of end year the in ’ 4

12

s s EC7 and SUVs. Gross profit margin in 1H13 improved

PB

/ 相对较 Net Profit 1. 低 (RMB m) Geely Automobile y’ 股东净利 市场

” 个月。

8 market s SUVs sales showed sight of slowing down mainlydown slowingof sight showed sales SUVs s 12

.

ales price of vehicles remained stable and productand remainedstablevehicles of price ales Rating ) 3,274 3,048 2,658 2,040 1,543 。 倍 47% 吉利的

of 预期

而 个月， 差。 1 估值

. 我们预计 3 吉利的

HKD 5.00,HKD ( 。公司销售收入同比大升

EC7 ‘

000) 年

。 forecasts expect Geely expect 因此我们预测公 . 股价

略

公司 PB h Company The in Next in

和 低 每股净利 SUVs 从 重申

maintain 和 于其历史水平 SUV (RMB) 吉利 1.8 2013 0.404 0.377 0.336 0.263 0.192

8 EPS 1. u hge than higher but representing 和目标价 月开始回升，在年底的时候将到达 个百分点到 5 . 销售 EC7 车型销售增长带动，公司的平均出厂

“收集” 倍 Theearnings of Geel

年上半年比去年多赚 .

Therefore we maintain Geely maintain weTherefore ’ 每股净利变动 s share s 1

则逐渐 in the next the in 司的汽车销售在未来 4 的销售

年 s rdn a te valuation the at trading is 12 4.75 和 5.00

-

ie ih u forecasts. our with line PB ( ( △ 但是高于同业 19.2% EPS 57,878.8 31,934.9 出现疲软状态，主要是因 12.2 12.2 27.5 37.2 11.0 00175 HK 00175 32.9%

将 0 8,273.3 7.3 1 %) 。 to increase to

港元， /2.36 评级 2 m 在 18.5%

x 1 x

industry 2014 。

0 onths ，反映公司产品价 12 months. 12 3

PE, 相当于

到

37.2% 年中 市盈率 y increased 263,544 平均 PER 10

12.4 12.4 16.8

13 ROA 13 gearing 13 Net (%) Free float Major shareholder

in August in 12 7.7 8.3 9.3 (x) average 见顶 x 1 x 1 ) 2 ，好

。 个月内

,

倍 4 根据 ，然 PE, We We 辆， Reiterate Reiterate

每股净 于 13 1 12 ’ 3 s .

年资产回报率 (RMB) 2.940 2.635 2.155 1.771 1.364 B 资产 自由流通比率 PS

Source 18,000 18,000 19,000 20,000 21,000 22,000 23,000 24,000

股价表现 Stock performance 年

平均股价（港元） Avg 相对恒指变动 % HS to Rel. index 绝对变动 Abs.% 股价变动 Share Price Change in 大股东

Shareprice from Revised 6 评级： Rating: 净负债

Jul - .

18m TP

share price(HK$) share - : 12

Bloomberg （

市

% / % 股东资金

P

净

） (%)

BR “

1.1 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.4 (x)

率

Accumulate %

Oct ,

目标价

原目标价 Guota 股价：

- 12

(

% 每股股息 i

Juna ) (RMB)

: 0.065 0.064 0.055 0.039 0.028

DPS HSI :

n 1 Jan

International 个月 1 M 1 - 13

22.1 22.1 21.9

3.5 3.5

[email protected] Harry Chen Harry

Geely .

股息率 3 Apr +86755 23976683 Yield Mr. 个月 Accumulate ” - 6 uut 2013 August 26 3 M 3 13 (%)

2.1 2.0 1.8 1.2 0.9

3.5 3.5 8.3 4.7

i Shufu Li

收集

HK 净资产收益率

Page Page HK Maintained

Jul 陈欢瑜 HK$ - 13 $

net cash $ 1 1 1 Y

( 4.010 5.00 年 维持 50.3 42.7 42.7 51.3 1 3.6 3.6 ROE 5.00

15.0 15.0 16.9 18.1 17.5 16.1 29.3 of of 2.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 (%) 6.8 % )

11 )

HK$

Company Report Geely Automobile 吉利汽车 (00175 HK) GTJA Research 国泰君安研究

Se ofGeely grew thansales faster averag industry I to Geely expect itsreach sales We target of 2013 of target.560,000 sales of 53% completing average, industry than faster units, 297,466 YoY to 18.6% increased Geely result, a share As market of self different brands, s rec the to due mainly was 2013 of months 7 first the in growth sales PV Rapid units.YoY million 13.4% 9.902 increased to sales PV China China Sales Company, Source: the International Guotai Junan Table and costs Administration 19.2%. percenta to YoY 1.8pps improved 1H13 in margin profit Gross SUVs. and 11%increased 1H13 in Geely YoYASP Geely of total growth sales. of of 19% sales for rapid of result accounting a as 2 grew sales export Ukraine, and Russia in surge demand the from Benefiting improved. mix product remained and vehicles stable of price sales the YoY,that 32.9% suggesting increased 1H13 of revenue Sales units). (560,000 target expected, but in 1H13 n Effective tax rate(%) A Selling margin profit (%) Net EBT margin(%) profit Operating margin(%) profit (%)Gross margin K per Car Revenue sales(unit) Export sales (units)Domestic (unit) volume Sale Government subsidies Key Operating EPS(RMB)Diluted EPS(RMB)Basic for equity shareholdersProfit Non for the period Profit EBT profit Operating profit Gross COGS Revenue Keydata financial mn)(Rmb e the first 7 months of 2013, domestic and export sales of Geely increased 17.1% YoYYoY,17.1%24.7% increased and Geely of sales export and domestic 2013, of months 7 first the dmin cost dmin eyRatio

Provision Income for Tax Finance Costs Othe Share of Results of Associates Share Admin costs Distribution costs th - e - ’ controlling interests Analysis 1 e s v s PV sales grew rapidly and market share of self las : arnings

r Income ge of year revenue decrease cost Financial Result ofFinancial Geely in t - ehicle sales grew r grew sales ehicle

based payments pag

s s

/Revenue(%) e /Revenue(%) overy of China economy and new car launch. We expect the PV sales to increase 15% YoY in 2 YoY in 15% increase to sales PV the expect We launch. car new and economy China of overy fo

-

and Forecastsand line line with our forecasts. Vehicle sales in 1H13 increased 18.5% YoY to 263,544 uni r

ee etr hn akt expected. market than better were

D elf disclaimer (RMB/unit)

a

ta -

owned brand

apidly domestically and internationally. and domestically apidly

- we rn eil ae erae .pst 05. owned vehicle brand salesdecreased 0.1pps to 40.5%.

vehicle - over

1H11 units. Both domestic and export sales increased rapidly in the first 7 months of 2013. ’ s - year. profit Net 0.3pps margin improved YoY to 9.4%. sales sales - 1H13 1H13 e, e, 21.1% Geely accounting for of grew 12.9% YoY in the first 7 months of 2013, slower than industry average.

- h erig o Gey nrae 3.% o, etr hn market than YoY, better 37.2% increased Geely of earnings The owned owned brand vehicle sales dropped.

182,329 222,390

(9,237) 48,979 40,061

11,177 1,027 1,261 1,940 0.125 0.125 0.137 1,020

1H12

(234) (124) (578) (659)

18.6 17.4

11.3 (64) 703 747 634 5.2 5.2 9.1 5.9 6.3 (1) 7

I n

the first 7 months of 2013, vehicle sales of Geely of sales vehicle 2013, of months 7 first the ’ s totals up sales, 1.0 pps YoY.

(16,83 107,939 240,664 348,603

(1,133) (1,278) 21,108 60,549

1,642 1,642 2,034 2,742 4,273 0.216 0.216 1,639

0.211 2H12 (392)

19.3 13.0 20.2

133 149

5.4 5.4 7.8 6.1 9.6 (0) 39

5) 3 1

I n ts, completing 47% of sales

the first 7 months of 2013, (12,008) 213,106 263,544

14,855 56,366 50,438

1,402 1,725 1,279 2,847 0.162 0.162 0.169 1,398

selling 1H13

(323) (747) (821)

18.7 19.2

11.6 (57) (46) 552 485 5.0 5.0 9.4 5.5 8.6 (4) respectively 3

xess s a as expenses

013. Among 013.

Page Page 5.9% YoY, 5.9% . Export . 167.1% - - - - ’ -

2 s EC7 EC7 s 52.4% 36.5% 38.1% 36.8% 82.0% 54.4% 26.1% 27.7% 29.2% 24.5% 46.7% 30.0% 32.9% 15.1% 25.9% 16.9% 18.5% 23.6% 29.4% 23.9% 37.2% △ of of

(0.1) (0.4)

YoY YoY pps 11 0.2 0.3 0.3 2.3 1.8

Company Report Geely Automobile (00175 HK) 26 August 2013 Se Source: Figur Source: Figur Source: Figur 100% 12,000,000 16,000,000 20,000,000 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 unit 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 4,000,000 8,000,000 0% e th units e e e e CAAM CAAM CAAM Jan 08 - - - las

Jan 0 Apr 08 5 3 1 t : : :

66.8% 2010 pag China PV Sales PV GrowthChina andSales Monthly anddomestic Geely of sales export Monthly 29.6%

, Jul 08 , , Feb

Guotai Junan International GuotaiJunan International GuotaiJunan International GuotaiJunan e Oct 08 2006 15.9% fo 22.3% - Mar 19.5% r Jan 09 disclaimer

2011 2007

Apr 09 Export sales 21.6% PV S Apr Jul 09 7.1%

2008 PV Sales Oct 09 May 52.9% ales of Geely of ales 26.6%

Jan 10 2012 2009 Jun

0.4%

Apr 10 33.3% Jul 10

Jul 2010 . . . Oct 10 Domestic sales Domestic 19.8% 5.4% PV Sales Growth PV Sales 2013 Jan 11 Aug 2011

Apr 11 6.9% Jul 11 Sep 2012

Oct 11 2013 growth(RHS) Oct Jan 12

7.2%

Apr 12 Nov Jul 12 Jan-July 12 13.4% Oct 12 Dec Jan-July 13 Jan 13 0% - - 20% 40% 60% 80%

0% 40% 20% Apr 13 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Jul 13

Figu Source: Figure Source: Source: Figu Source: 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 100,000 120,000 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100% 20% 40% 60% 80% Unit Unit 0% re re 0 0 CAAM CAAM CAAM - - -

43.8% 21.2% 14.1% 4 2 6 9.7% 8.4% 2.6% : : : 2003 Annual Annual export andAnnualexport domesti 2009 Market Share Different of Brands , , 2008 , Guotai Junan International GuotaiJunan Guotai Junan International GuotaiJunan International GuotaiJunan 19.8% 14.4% 10.1% 2004 44.7% 8.1% 2.7% - 26.8% 49.0% 2010 2009 2005 37.6% PV Export Export (LHS) Sales Sales (LHS) 42.1% 19.4% 16.4% 10.8% 6.2% 2006 8.4% 2.8%

23.6% S 2011 2010 ales ales of Geely 2007 10.3% 41.8% 16.1% 18.4% 12.0% 92.7% 8.8% 2.8%

157.3% 2008 2012

2011 12.5% . . . 2009

60.0% Export Export growth(RHS) Sales Sales growth(RHS) 2012 2010 27.3% 40.6% 18.8% 18.2% 11.6%

Jan- 8.1% 2.7% 1.3% c sales sales c Geely of 2011 July 14.7% 2012 40.5% 14.9% 19.6% 12.6% 2012 Jan- 9.3% 3.2%

July Chinain 6.6% Page Page Jan-July 12 2013 221.1% 24.7%

Jan-July 12 brand Self Japanese German American Korean French Others 18.6% 3

- of of Jan -July 13 owned owned Jan -July 13

11 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% - - 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 0%

1 0.5

Company Report Geely Automobile (00175 HK) 26 August 2013 Se and 70,000 RMB A brand JV of that to similar sedans YoY44% grewEC7 of sales vehicle theAmongtotal self 101,32434%ofunits, foraccountingsales. to the became graduallyrapidly and increase to continued EC7 of sales EC7 Source: Table Source: Figur higher contribution of priced models rapid to due 2013, of months of Sales well. very performed did SC6, and SC3 that including while drop to continued Kong, King and Cruiser Free including models, old of sales the since improved. Geely of mix Product Source: Figur 100% 120% 20% 40% 60% 80% Gleagle Emgrand Englon units 0% 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 e 5,000

th

which e e e - 0 CAAM the Company the 2 CAAM Jan - - las ,EC7 sales of ranked 1 No.

: Geely

9 7 t Jan 05 : : pag Completion Monthly of Sales Feb , , Guotai Junan International Guotai Junan is a s a is

Jul 05 International GuotaiJunan e fo ’ SC6

s Jan 06 Mar r International Guotai Junan ,

New New 2010 disclaimer uccessfully

eeoe b self by developed Jul 06 Panda EC8 EC7 EV8 EX8 SX7 SC New models Apr Jan 07 SC3 5 M

Ratio

odels Jul 07 May

2011 King King Kong Jan 08

- class sedans class A0 Jun of

Jul 08 P developed A developed - of growth sales . lan for 201 lan Geely Class Sedan Class .

Jan 09 Jul In the first 7 months of 2013, A0 2013, of months 7 first the In in the first 7 2013 due to months of its competitive butprice distinguish power and outlook 2012 expanded thatof while lower models shrunk. price

- Jul 09 Free Free Cruiser we bad uo makers auto brand owned

’ Aug Jan 10 s Classification A0 B A MPV Mid Compact A Sales TargetSales . EC7 is also considered one of the most the of one considered also is EC7 . - - -

c c c Jul 10 Sep - 3 lass sedan lass sedan lass sedan classsedan - - size - 2013 Class sedan Class

2015

Jan 11 Oct Others

SUV Jul 11 GX7 and EC7 SUV Jan 12 Nov

Jul 12 Dec

Jan 13 A00

gr

e Jul 13 -

w Class, A Class, Indicatedlaunch date A a result, a As . Source: Source: Figure Source: Source: Figur ’ 100%

rapidly 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% owr engineering. forward units 0% 30,000 35,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 5,000 - Class and B and Class flagship e CAAM CAAM 0 - - - Jan-05 Class Sales and SUV increased rapidly increased SUV and Sales Class

8 10: of Monthly Sales in the last 4 years. 4 last the in :

Jan 05 GC7 Jul-05 a 2013 Jan Improved Product Improved Mix , , A0

Guotai Junan International GuotaiJunan Guotai Junan Int GuotaiJunan

product product Jul 05 Jan-06 rdc mx f el ipoe since improved Geely of mix product 4Q1 4Q13 4Q13 - 2015 2013 2013 Class Jan 06 Jul-06 - Class sedan s sedan Class 3 SC515

Jul 06

successful sedan successful Jan-07 of Geely. In the first 7 months of 2013,Geely. of of months 7 first the In Jan 07 A

Jul-07 - Class hrfr, vn huh t s priced is it though even Therefore, Jul 07 ernational Jan-08 Jan 08

TX4 Jul-08 After the launch in July 2009 July in launch the After A00 Jul 08 A - ales

Class Sedan Class Jan-09 . . -

Jan 09 Class

New of Geely

of replacement models, models, replacement of Jul-09

Jul 09 decreased s - EC7

owned brand A owned brand

which Jan-10

eeain o SC515 for generation Jan 10 B - Jul 10 Jul-10 Class

Typeupgrade of

priced around priced New Jan 11 Jan-11

Vision

in the first 7 first the in 17.4% YoY17.4% Page Page SUV Newmodels Newmodels Newmodels Jul 11 Jul-11 generation Jan 12 Jan-12 4 Facelift Fa - sa

class of of Jul 12 Jul-12 celift SC7 les 11 Jan 13 Jan-13 ,

Jul 13 Jul-13

Company Report Geely Automobile (00175 HK) 26 August 2013 Se didn buyers potential since 2013. 211%increased YoY, for 20% ofaccounting total sales. The salesmonthly of GX7 started Sales to 5to years trend of Geely Free Cruiser, Vision and King Kong, as well as that of BYD F Sales Source: Table Source: Figur of 2013 months 7 first in volume sales represent bubbles of Size Note: Source: Sedan Figur higherslightly thanBYD Rui,EC7 andthe Su demand of F3 remained strong. Retail Retail Price (RMB) 100,000 100,000 110,000 120,000 130,000 140,000 150,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 200,000 60,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 60,000 80,000 (months) to of No. months Typesedan of Lau e reach itsreach inpeak the middle 2014 and start of to decrease in 2H14.

RMB th 4,400 n e e e -

Comparing with the withComparing ch date ch CAAM 3 CAAM of growth s - - las ityC a nd o H

: Self Cycle Summary Product Major the of of

13 CAAM in Chinain EC7expected itsto are reach 11 t na nta Sa W V

Geely EC7

for for pag : , , : International Guotai Junan Excelle ew N Buick Price Range Range of Price

Guotai Junan International GuotaiJunan BYD Su Rui , e self Guotai Junan International GuotaiJunan optto Lnsae of Landscape Competition of SUVs of fo Changan Yidong r -

owned brand sedan disclaimer Great Wall C50 sales ocus Fo rd Fo W V Chery Arrizo7 Jetta 4,500 GAC Trumpchi GA3 peak is Excelle Buick ora Bo W V W FA SUVs sales of Great Wall Motor (2333HK), the competitiveness of Geely Great ofcompetitivenessof (2333HK),sales theMotorSUVs Wall VW Jetty

’ t consider Geely a good SUV maker due to its brand image and the outlook of the vehicles. the of outlook the and image brandits to due maker SUV good a Geely consider t

expected to expected

Major A

SAIC VW Lavida oy ta yo To ro la o C FAW VW Bora . .

3 A G C A G

Ela ntra i a yund H .

FAW VW Sagitar Note rmpchi p Trum

SAIC GM Chevrolet - Class Sed Class Cruze to reach its sales peak and started to decrease. Therefore, we expect : No of months to reach sales peak for EC7 are estimated. estimated. are EC7 for peak sales reach to months of No : SAIC GM Buick ruze C let hevro C

4,600

slow down slow Excelle peak in the peak in middle 2014 of Changan Ford Focus i ng o Yid n a ng ha C DF Nissan Syphy vid a La IC W V SA Major A yE 7 ly e EC e G Jul - agita g r Sa W V W FA

SAIC GM Buick New ans class rrizoA hery C

EC7 Excelle 60 -

09 SAIC VW Santana

7 . In the first 7 months of 2013, sales of Geely of sales 2013, of months 7 first the In . * 50 C ll a t rea W G rrizoA hery C Car Length Car (cm) Length

BAIC yundai Elantra A

Y Su BYD - - 7 Class owned SedanBrand FAW Toyota Corola Rui Free Cruiser Free GAC Honda City 4,700 A0

Feb Geely Geely Visionand Kong King Figur Source: Sedans Figur Source: Source: Car Length (cm) Length Car units 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 - 5,000 class 4400 4450 4500 4550 4600 4650 4700 -

2550 60 05 0

andstart to decrease in e e

CAAM CAAM da ity a C nd o H

1 - -

4 1 1 4 3, 3, it generally took 55 months to 60 months, or 4.5 2 7 2570 : : 10 , ,

Guotai Junan International GuotaiJunan Guotai Junan International GuotaiJunan Monthly Sales Monthly a Lnt ad Wheelbase and Length Car 13 Buick Buick

Free Free Cruiser Sales ro lla o C ta yo To 16 W V 19 Exelle Jetta King Kong King 2590 22 S t na nta Sa W V A0 25

Apr 28 W V - class Ela ntra i a yund H 31 avid a La - to decrease, down 17% YoY 34 2610 57 06 ra Bo W V 37

40

of BYD F3, Geely Free Cruiser Free Geely F3, BYD of 43 Vision 3 A G chi p Trum C A G 2H 46 2630 49 . .

14. ’ W V s SUVs is relatively weak is SUVs s 52 ly 7 e e EC G ’ s SUVs (GX7 and EX7) and (GX7 SUVs s A0 ord cus Fo Fo 55 agita g r Sa

Dec According to historical 58

Vision - 2650 class 61 Y Su BYD i ng Yid o n a ng ha C - 64 King Kong 55 10

67

the sales of of

70 Rui 2670 73

ao A Major 76 Page Page ruze C let hevro C 79 Excelle Buick ew N 82

hery C 2690 85 Wheelbase (cm) Wheelbase in July in July BYD F3 5 A Apr 88

Even

50 C ll t a rea W G of of EC - BYD BYD F3 - class 91 rrizoA 7 Class month 11 94 - 7 60 05

97 2710

100

,

Company Report Geely Automobile (00175 HK) 26 August 2013 Se Source: Figur expected are margins to slower to due gradually decrease to subsidies government the incre expect to expected are Geely of margins profit gross mix, product and scale marginprofit Gross sales to due 2015 in stop decrease may improvement such However, 2014. and 2013 in improve to expected is mix product result, expected to increase in ASP mo Geely and EC7 of growth s Vehicle Source: Figur respectively,during 2013 down buyers in launch was SX7, model, new though 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 units 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 e 5,000 Unit dels dels limited have effect totalon sales. Therefore,the salesGeely growth of th 0 0 is expected to increase to expected is e e e significantly CAAM the Company the . - - las 1

1 Therefore, we expect the sales of Geely SUV may reach reach may SUV Geely of sales the expect we Therefore, 1 7 t 5 5 ales of

2004 : pag :

27% Sale VolumeSale , 9

Guotai Junan International Guotai Junan Monthly Sales ForecastsMonthly Sales Geely of EC7 EC7. Therefore, 13 e

2005 of Geely of 38% fo 17 r ,

21 Guotai Junan International Guotai Junan disclaimer 2006 n H3 A a eut Geely result, a As 2H13. in 24% 10% Sales Sales (LHS) 25 EC7 s

2007 29 are expected to increaseto while expected are

2013 and 2014

33 in 2013 in remain 2013 flat during - Forecasts ’ 2015. 12% s SUVs is expected to slow down rapidly in 2014 and 2015 while the sales contributed by the new new the by contributed sales the while 2015 and 2014 in rapidly down slow to expected is SUVs s 37

2008

Free Free Cruiser 41

ASP expec is

2009 45 60% in 2013 and 2014 and 2013 in

- . 49

2015 are expected to increase to expected are 2015 2010 53 Sales Sales growth(RHS) 27%

of 57 .

2011 15%

61 1% since Geely Geely 2013, the SUVs of Geely of SUVs the 2013, 65 BYD BYD F3 2012 to increase ted in and 2013 2014 69 18%

2013F 73 ’ SU s 77 - 2015. 8% 81

2014F then and ’ s s SUVs sales are expected to grow faster than average sedan sales. 5% 85 Vs sales are expected to increase 32% YoY, 20% YoY and 12% YoY, 12% and YoY YoY, 20% 32% increase to expected are sales Vs

2015F 89

net profit margins profitnet 93 month 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 0.0% 97

remain flat in 2015 in flat remain

Source: Source: Figur Source: Source: Figur 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000

- - - temporarily RMB 30% 20% 10% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% may still not the first choice for most of the potential SUV SUV potential the of most for choice first the not still may 18% YoY, 8% YoY and 5% YoY,YoY,5% 18%YoY respectively. and 8% 0% 0 e e CAAM the Company the - -

production 4% 1 1 Sales Contribution by EC7(RHS) by Sales Contribution Growth EC7 Sales 6 8 2011

2005 : : ASP and then may remain flat. flat. may remain , Sales Contribution EC7 Sales of s rdal drn 2013 during gradually ase

GuotaiJu 3% high is

2006 xetdt lwdw rm21. expected to slow 2014. down from .

, - Forecasts 4% T

Guotai Junan International Guotai Junan

and he sales contribution of Geely SUVs are SUVs Geely of contribution sales he plant

2007 2012 nan International nan remain flat in remain flat in 2015 3% ASP the

2008 s

expansion. As a result, net profit net result, a As expansion. 0% sales growth is expected to slow to expected is growth sales

2009 of Geely Due to improved economies of economies Due improved to 2013F 12%

2010 .

YoY change 3%

2011 Growth Geely Sales . . - 3% 2014F 2015. However, we we However, 2015.

2012 11% 2013F

Page Page 3%

The sales The 2014F 2015F

0% 6

of of 2015F As a 11 0% 4% 8% - - 12% 16% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 8% 4% 0% 5%

Company Report Geely Automobile (00175 HK) 26 August 2013 Se Source: Figur maintain Geely trend historical sales auto for season low its reach and valuationhighest August in the end of in the year. recover This is mainly due to seasonal effects start of automobile industry since 2Q is then year the of middle during bottom normally PB and PE forward its price, share 1. M Valuation 2013 ASP of estimates whi forecasts our than higher are We E Source: Figur 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 4 6 8 a 2 aintain e rnings rnings Adjustment x 1 th Jan 06 a only - (X) e e e 2015 s 4 the Company the Bloomberg

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Company Report Geely Automobile (00175 HK) 26 August 2013 Se Source: Image YoYgrowth 2012in Salesvolume Warranty (Nm) Ma (kw) MaxPower (Lt) Displacement Transmission base(mm) Wheel (mm) Dimension Released Released/New First excludedtax price(RMB) Retail Table Source: Table Image rating C C Warranty Torque(Nm) Power(kw) (L) Displacement Weight(kg) Trans base(mm) Wheel (mm) Dimension Releasedyear price(RMB) Retail SUV e - - x Torque

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fo r disclaimer 92,900 4152x1680x1440 4541x1833x1700 38,900 Free ★★★★★ 172/178./225 102/104/120 88/110/136 100,000km GeelyGX7 100,000km 1.0/1.3/1.5 Old model 1.8/2.0/2.4 3 Dec - 50/63/75

- 3 year3 or yearsor C 101,900 - MT/6AT - Feb 34,904 44,900 18.8% ruiser

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4267 e Gn for Gen New 92,900 40, 4553x1833x1673 Free 100,000km. 8 172/178/220 102/104/119 x168 3 00 100,000km GeelySX7 1.8/2.0 - yearsor Jan 2013Jan 5MT/6AT - - year3 or

129,900 Jun 47,800 cruiser 0x1440 2434 SC3 n.a. n.a. 110 2661 MT - 1.3 63 12 n.a. n.a. / n.a. 2.4

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yearsor 128/136 - K 4Q13 48,668 62,800 Apr 2800 ong2 69/75 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 3.4% 2502 MT - 1.5 09

89,800 4810x1855x1680 4342x1692x1435 e Gn for Gen New 5 3,8 100,000km.. ★★★★★ 100,000km 3 00 May2011 Kingkong 4 year4 or - MT/AMT - 186/234 129,8 BYDS6 118/103 yearsor - 2.4/2.0 60,8 Jul 1 2720 2502 , SC6 800 n.a. n.a. 136 MT - 1.5 46 00 75 12 00

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- Oct 2011Oct - 5yearor MT/AMT yearsor 142/140 151,800 - May - 17,737 85,800 Vision 40.6% 78/80 1 8/110 2602 2680 45.8 , 615 - MT 1.5 06

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66,900 e Gn for Gen New CheryTiggo Page Page 205/170/147 110/97/87.5 150,000km 2.0/1.8/1.6 4 60,000km Mar - （瑞虎） - yearsor 142/170 2yearor 115,800 - Dec 8 78/102 1.5/1.8 89,900 MT/AT MT/ Vision

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Company Report Geely Automobile (00175 HK) 26 August 2013 Se S Average Weighted Global Average Simple Global A Weighted Average Simple Ltd Tata Steel Ab Scania Ab Volvo Sa Renault Se Man Ag Daimler Ag Motoren Werke Bayerische Ag Volkswagen Fiat Spa Inc Paccar Corp International Navistar For Co Motor Hyundai Isuzu Ltd Motors Ltd Motors Hino Corp Motor Suzuki Industries Heavy Fuji Industries Heavy Mitsubishi Corp Motor Mazda Ltd Co Motor Daihatsu Ltd Co Motor Honda Corp Motor Toyota Ltd Co Motor Nissan Weigh Average Simple Co Holding & Bus Zhongtong Co Motor Yaxing Yangzhou Ltd Corp Motors Jiangling Co King Long Motor Xiamen Jinbei Automotive Shenyang Co Bus Yutong Zhengzhou Truck Ltd Co Cnhtc Jinan Co Jianghuai Auto Anhui Ltd Co Motor Foton Beiqi Ltd Power Co Weichai Changan Automob Chongqing Autombile Faway Changchun Cor Motor Saic Limited Company Faw Car Automobile Ltd Co Dongfeng Average Weighted Average Simple Ltd Hong Kong Sinotruk Ltd Power Co Weichai Tech Industry & Avichina Automobile Group Guangzhou Ltd Co Byd Ltd Co Motors Qingling Company Motor Great Wall Automotive China Brilliance Lt Holdings Geely Automobile Grp Ltd Co Motor Dongfeng Company Table ource: Bloomberg, Guotai Junan International Guotai Junan ource: Bloomberg, d Motor Co d Motor e

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005380 KS 005380 JP 7202 JP 7205 JP 7269 JP 7270 JT 7011 JP 7261 JP 7262 JP 7267 JP 7203 JP 7201 CH 000957 CH 600213 CH 000550 6 CH 600609 CH 600066 CH 000951 CH 600418 CH 600166 CH 000338 CH 000625 CH 600742 CH 600104 CH 000800 CH 600006 HK 3808 HK 2338 HK 2357 HK 2238 HK 1211 HK 1122 HK 2333 HK 1114 HK 175 HK 489 Stock Code IN TATA SS SCVB SS VOLVB RNO FP GRMAN DAI GR BM VOW GR F IM US PCAR US NAV F US 00686 CH 00686

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INR SEK SEK EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR USD USD USD KRW JPY JPY JPY JPY JPY JPY JPY JPY JPY JPY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY HKD HKD HKD HKD HKD HKD HKD HKD HKD HKD Currency

Last Last price 228,500.0 1,330.00 1,330.00 2,237.00 2,482.00 1,917.00 3,730.00 6,220.00 1,028.00 282.30 282.30 138.70 177.40 603.00 558.00 404.00 98.40 98.40 59.60 86.72 55.80 75.22 55.24 34.42 16.41 15.38 17.72 10.04 18.30 10.18 15.27 12.97 14.45 28.20 32.25 39.55 11.26 11.10 4.01 4.01 6.20 6.20 6.20 5.93 8.49 3.28 8.29 5.15 2.89 4.00 4.07 7.81 2.05 0

186.0 186.0 186.2 274.3 104.0 108.2 540.5 116.6 10.9 10.9 18.5 18.5 16.2 16.3 67.3 13.3 14.5 20.9 20.6 13.5 54.9 26.8 3 10.8 19.1 64.2 23.9 14.1 10.9 18.0 12.2 18.4 78.2 18.4 24.6 30.7 12.5 10.5 16.8 25.7 25.7 53.6 19.7 11.3 11.3 12A n.a. n.a. n.a. 9.1 8.4 6.2 7.2 9.4 3.5 8.2 9.0 9.9 9.6 8.0 9.6 9.4

17.5 17.5 21.4 22.5 12.8 26.2 12.5 14.6 17.2 57.8 20.5 18.6 18.7 12.3 24.7 16.1 60.3 10.4 12.2 13.7 10.3 16.3 16.3 18.4 16.3 19.1 28.8 17.3 24.7 64.9 20.7 17.0 10.7 10.9 17.6 16.5 20.0 24.3 38.9 10.4 17.0 21.7 12.8 10.7 11.5 11.5 13F n.a. n.a. n.a. 7.9 9.6 7.5 6.1 7.6 9.9 9.6 8.3 6.5 PE

17.7 17.7 10.9 17.5 10.3 10.8 28.9 15.5 14.4 12.8 10.5 20.6 10.8 41.6 10.3 10.6 10.6 12.6 10.3 10.5 14.5 13.0 20.2 10.1 10.8 15.0 23.6 10.5 12.0 17.1 12.2 10.8 11.9 11.2 11.7 11.3 11.6 11.4 11.1 14F n n.a. 6.8 8.8 8.2 6.2 5.4 9.8 8.8 7.1 6.3 9.3 7.1 9.3 6.0 8.7 9.0 9.3 8.2 .a.

10.7 10.7 10.5 36.1 12.5 15.9 31.2 10.6 10.6 12.6 10.2 16.4 13.4 10.3 10.0 10.3 14.8 10.2 11.2 11.0 11.6 11.1 15F n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 6.0 9.8 7.2 7.0 8.3 5.4 5.3 9.2 9.2 9.3 9.0 9.0 9.3 7.7 6.5 9.2 9.0 9.5 8.0 5.1 8.6 8.9 6.4 7.0 7.5 5.8 8.0 8.8 8.8 9.4 7.9 7.4

11.5 12A 2.6 2.0 6.6 1.5 1.4 2.4 1.4 1.5 1.3 2.2 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.8 1.0 2.2 1.8 0.7 2.2 1.7 1.1 2.1 0.5 2.8 3.9 1.9 1.5 1.5 2.3 1.5 2.5 1.1 3.1 2.1 0.5 2.1 1.0 1.6 1.0 0.5 2.7 23. 3.2 1.2 2.0 1.6 1.1 1.2 1.1 0.9 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.8 9

13F n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 1.7 1.4 2.7 1.1 1.6 0.9 1.3 2.6 1.0 2.6 2.3 1.8 0.5 1.6 1.8 1.2 2.6 0.5 3.5 3.4 1.7 1.2 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.9 0.7 3.0 2.5 0.7 2.1 1.3 1.5 1.0 0.8 3.1 3.0 2.0 3.1 1.2 3.6 1.4 2.4 1.7 1.4 1.7 1.3 1.4

PB

14F n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 1.4 1.2 2.3 1.0 1.4 0.8 1.1 2.1 0.9 2.1 1.9 1.5 0.5 1.4 1.6 1.1 2.4 0.5 2.8 2.7 1.4 1.0 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.6 0.8 2.8 2.3 0.6 2.1 1.2 1.3 0.9 0.6 2.8 2.4 1.6 2.4 1.0 2.6 1.3 2.0 1.4 1.2 1.5 1.1 1.2

15F n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 1.2 1.0 1.8 0.9 1.2 0.8 1.0 1.7 0.8 1.8 1.7 1.3 0.4 1.2 1.5 1.0 2.3 0.5 2.3 2.1 1.2 0.9 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 0.7 2.5 2.0 0.6 2 1.1 1.2 0.8 0.6 2.5 2.0 1.4 2.1 0.9 2.2 1.2 1.7 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.0 1.1 .1

ROE( 13F %) 12.4 12.4 18.6 10.4 20.5 14.1 13.5 16.6 13.1 17.1 12.4 17.6 13.4 13.3 30.6 27.9 18.0 16.8 13. 12.9 12.9 12.7 18.3 12.4 16.1 12.6 18.6 12.8 33.9 18.3 20.4 19.2 19.7 17.1 10.3 15.2 n.a. n.a. n.a. 5.0 6.7 0.9 2.4 7.7 7.9 4.7 5.2 1.2 9.6 6.1 4.1 5.5 7.5 5.9 6.0 8.8 8.4

4

D/Y(%) 13F Page Page n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 2.0 4.9 2.4 0.7 2.0 1.1 2.1 0.7 4.3 0.0 1.5 1.8 1.5 1.2 0.7 1.9 0.0 6.8 2.2 1.0 1.3 1.9 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.0 3.5 3.5 3.0 2.9 2.9 3.9 3.6 2.3 0.4 2.5 2.4 0.9 1.4 1.3 0.7 0.5 1.1 0.0 2.7 2.0 1.2 2.4 2.7

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14.3 14.3 10.3 36.1 14.1 15.8 15.8 23.6 10.9 10.8 16.7 10.8 11.2 11.1 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 8.4 9.2 8.5 9.3 7.3 9.6 9.7 4.3 4.6 2.9 3.2 2.2 4.9 6.6 8.8 4.7 9.8 3.9 8.2 8.6 9.7 6.2 8.3 7.9 3.6 5.9 5.4 7.4 8.5 6.8 6.2 5.7 2.8

Company Report Geely Automobile (00175 HK) 26 August 2013 Se Company, Source: the Financial Financial flow End cash flow of cash Net change CFF Others paid Dividend Interest paid shares of Issuance bonds of convertible Net change ofLT Repayment loan bank of LT Proceed CFI Others Interest income deposit ofpledged Net change assets of intangible Net change lease ofprepaid land Net change N CFO Items Operating other of Change Exchange Gain/(losses) of associates of Share results (payable) inChange liabilities Change Inventories inChange Interest Income co Finance lease ofprepaid land Amortization assets of intangible Amortization PPE for Depreciation EBT 3 (RMB) share per Dividend (RMB) Diluted EPS (RMB) EPS Basic (Loss) Net Income Expenses Other and Taxes EBT EBIT Associates Opera Expenses profit Gross Turnover - e et Investments in PPE in et Investments year CAGR for EPS(%) for CAGR year Statement Flow Cash Tax) (After Interest Minority Tax Income for Provision Others Share Costs Finance Income Other of ofResults Share Expenses Administration Expenses Distribution of Cost Sales Statement Income

th

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Statement Ratioand

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17,145 20,965

------3,030 1,363 1,227 1,943 2,953 1,221 1,208 1,038 2,322 2,183 1,543 2,183 3,847 2,857 1,359 3,820 0.028 0.192 0.207

2011 2011 ------11.3 - 393 170 166 991 750 104 363 167 503 172 467 137 167 997 963

111 111 - 14 44 75 44 28 - 0 3 7 0 7 0

- 20,069 24,628 ------4,189 1,158 1,206 3,924 2,463 2,071 4,438 3,314 1,347 2,529 2,040 2,529 4,285 1,048 3,240 1,319 1,483 4,559 0.039 0.263 0.271 2012 2012 ------16.6 803 975 162 465 237 612 479 195 170 193 594 356 210 - - - -

20 15 42 38 10 79 24 42 40 - 2 0 2 0

-

26,072 32,285 2013F ------2013F - - 4,282 1,312 2,344 1,379 2,640 1,065 1,600 4,045 5,393 4,542 3,295 2,658 3,295 5,380 4,502 1,937 6,213 0.055 0.336 0.352 1,711 - - - 23.4 941 602 626 880 261 201 ------36 54 85 38 10 63 85 93 85 54 25 - - 4 3 2 0 2 0 0 0 0

-

28,749 35,914 2014F - - - - - 2014F - - 5,193 1,454 3,076 1, 1,920 5,441 4,602 4,029 3,777 3,048 3,777 6,012 5,226 1,939 2,137 7,165 0.064 0.377 0.377 - - - - 22.1 185 718 785 332 940 797 664 170 667 268 911 ------50 48 48 64 27 38 64 48 38 11 - - 0 1 0 0 8 4 1 0

- 30,186 37,78 - - 2015F - - - - 2015F 3,274 4,056 6,277 5,596 2,003 2,229 7,599 5,479 4,073 1,247 2,880 4,807 3,961 3,468 4,056 0.065 0.404 0.405 - - - - - 14.4 771 680 286 447 381 685 571 731 786 341 ------40 48 48 93 29 10 38 93 48 39 11 - 0 1 5 0 0 0 3 1 0

Others liabilities tax Deferred bond Convertible borrowing bank Long Term Current Liabilities Other liabilities borrowing Bank payables Trade Non Others lea Prepaid land associates Interest in Assets Intangible PPE Current Assets Others payment lease Prepaid land assets tax Deferred o andTrade Inventories deposit Pledged Cash payable Days Days receivable Inve Efficiency Current ratio ratio Quick Cash ratio ratio Interest cover ratio Gearing solvency and Liquidity BPS(%) EPS(%) (%) growth Revenue growth (%) Sales volume Growth ROA ROE Net profit margin EBIT Margin EBITDAR profit margin Gross Profitability BPS(RMB) Equity Shareholders Interest Minority Earnings Retained Reserve Share Capital Net Assets Total Liabilities Non sheet Balance Ratio Analysis - - n

current Assets current liabilities current

tory Turnover tory (%) (%)

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14,985 10,591 17,006 12,215 10,150 10,150 17,447 12,114 1, 2,532 1,480 2,22 6,796 1,358 3,030 5,444 3,999 2,462 1.364 2011 2011 14.9 19.5 12.0 16.1 14.9 18.2

11.0 11.9 527 843 339 354 568 140 197 193 1.1 1.0 0.2 4.3 1.3 5.6 7.4 92 10 84 12 38 18 0 0 2

16,693 15,183 19,855 13,476 13,204 13,204 18,176 11,525 1,379 1,461 2,814 7,008 1,822 4,189 7,484 5,250 1,483 1.771 2012 2012 cash 14.4 30.1 37.2 17.5 14.7 17.5 14.9 18.5

11.4 109 849 525 131 195 314 317 153 202 190 1.2 1.1 0.3 net 6.5 8.3 10 37 16 38 15 0

21,397 20,576 13,631 25,443 18,018 16,248 10,142 16,248 22,825 2013F 2013F 1,465 3,880 8,006 2,763 4,282 5,653 1,428 2.155 cash 40. 23.1 27.5 31.1 18.1 18.1 10.7 13.3 19.2

203 940 285 157 664 195 339 333 120 233 204 1.2 1.1 0.2 net 6.8 8.2 10 74 38 14 0 4 3

Page Page

25,939 25,178 16,121 30,241 22,047 19,868 13,190 19,868 26,494 2014F 2014F 1,474 5,065 9,259 2,593 5,193 6,208 2.635 cash 80.6 22.3 12.2 16.9 10.8 13.5 20.0

11.2 245 188 571 195 366 350 555 256 224 311 117 119 1.2 1.1 0.2 net 8 6.6 8.5 38 13 11 .0 .0 10 0 0 5

of of

23,780 16,464 23,780 30,495 29,858 29,139 19,518 34,757 25,515 11,353 2015F 2015F 6,822 1,484 6,312 3,324 5,479 11 2.940 - cash 84.4 19.7 15.0 10.7 13.8 20.1

367 127 637 426 226 491 163 195 395 281 246 211 1.2 1.1 0.2 net 7.3 5.2 5.0 6.0 8.7 38 13

11 0 0 5

Company Report Geely Automobile (00175 HK) 26 August 2013 Se Website:www.gtja.com.hk Tel.:(852) 2509 27/F.,Low Block, GrandMillennium Plaza, 181 Queen 201 © subjectGuotai Junanand groupits companies any to registration or licensingrequirement within such jurisdiction. juris any in Research This Report isnot directed at,or intended distributionfor to orby,use any person orentity who isa orcitizen andwhere necessary consult their own financial advisers prior to any investment decision. r its andobjectivesinvestment comprehend the understandand shouldInvestors contain. uncertainty may so situation, mutable and estimates forwardsome contain may ReportResearch This herein. dataand information the ofcompleteness and accuracy the guarantee not Thoughbest effort has been m becontrary to opinions orinvestment decisions madeby assetthe managementand investment banking groups of Guotai Junan. professionotherdealersand persons, Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment strategies expressed orally or in w placi the covered example, companies (for to etc. relates that and underwriteror businessproprietarily).invest services do investment may banking, companies investment group including its reports, and research Junan Guotai Junan"). ("Guotai Limited Kong) (Hong securities for subscribe or purchase acquire, to offer or invitation an constitute not does Report Research This DISCLAIMER (4) (3) (2) (1) DISCLOSURE OF INTERESTS Horizon: Time to6 18 months T Sector Horizon: Time to6 18 months TheBenchmark: Hong KongHang Seng Index Company heBenchmark: Hong KongHang Seng Index e Underperform Neutral Outperform Rating Sell Reduce Neutral Accumulate Buy Rating

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Company Report Geely Automobile (00175 HK) 26 August 2013