New Zealand Media Coverage of the 2011 Election Study
Mid-way Results (Covering 26 October to 8 November 2011)
10 November 2011
Dr. Babak Bahador and Ms. Katherine Roff
School of Social and Political Sciences University of Canterbury
Press Contact: Ms. Katherine Roff Tel: 0226293038
Comments and feedback: Dr. Babak Bahador [email protected] Contents
Section 1: The Parties ...... 3 1.1 Media Coverage of Leading Parties ...... 3 Figure 1 and Table 1: Volume of Media Coverage of Parties ...... 3 1.2 Tone of Party Media Coverage ...... 4 Figure 2: Negative Coverage of Parties ...... 4 Figure 3: Positive Coverage of Parties...... 5 Table 2: Tone of Party Coverage in the Media ...... 5 Section 2: The Party Leaders ...... 6 2.1 Media Coverage of Party Leaders...... 6 Figure 4 and Table 3: Volume of Media Coverage of Party Leaders ...... 6 2.2 Tone of Party Leaders Media Coverage ...... 6 Figure 5: Negative Coverage of Party Leaders ...... 7 Figure 6: Positive Coverage of Party Leaders ...... 8 Table 4: Tone of Party Leaders Coverage ...... 8 Section 3: The Issues ...... 9 3.1 Leading Policy Issues ...... 9 Figure 7 and Table 5: Leading Policy Issues ...... 9 3.2 Leading Non-Policy Issues ...... 10 Figure 8 and Table 6: Leading Non-Policy Issues ...... 10 3.3 The Referendum...... 11 Figure 9 and Table 7: Volume of Referendum Electoral System Coverage ...... 11 Table 8: Tone of Referendum Electoral System Coverage ...... 12 Methodology ...... 13
2 Section 1: The Parties
1.1 Media Coverage of Leading Parties National led Labour 40.7% to 36.8% in media coverage devoted to parties Smaller parties receive 22.5% of media coverage for parties, led by The Green Party at 9.7%
Figure 1 and Table 1: Volume of Media Coverage of Parties
Mana NZ First 2% 2% United Future Maori 1% 3% ACT 5%
Green 10% National 41%
Labour 37%
Party Percentage of Coverage
National 40.7% Labour 36.8% Green 9.7% ACT 4.7% Maori 3.0% Mana 2.2% New Zealand First 2.1% United Future 0.8%
Total 100%
3 1.2 Tone of Party Media Coverage Overall, there was 11.8% more negative coverage related to parties than positive National received the most negative coverage at 53.9% of its total coverage, while Labour was third at 43.2% The Green Party received the most positive coverage at 51.5% of its total coverage National had 27.5% more negative coverage than positive, while Labour had 10.8% more. The Green Party received the most net positive coverage at 41.7%.
Figure 2: Negative Coverage of Parties
National
ACT
Labour
New Zealand First
Maori
Mana
United Future
Green
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
4 Figure 3: Positive Coverage of Parties
Green
United Future
Maori
Mana
Labour
New Zealand First
National
ACT
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Table 2: Tone of Party Coverage in the Media
Party Negative Positive Neutral Positive/Negative Difference
National 53.9% 26.4% 19.6% -27.5% ACT 43.8% 24.1% 32.1% -19.8% Labour 43.2% 32.4% 24.4% -10.8% New Zealand First 41.1% 28.8% 30.1% -12.3% Maori 31.4% 34.3% 34.3% 2.9% Mana 21.1% 32.9% 46.1% 11.8% United Future 19.2% 42.3% 38.5% 23.1% Green 9.8% 51.5% 38.7% 41.7%
All Parties 43.3% 31.5% 25.2% -11.8%
5 Section 2: The Party Leaders
2.1 Media Coverage of Party Leaders John Key received the largest amount of media coverage amongst party leaders at 48.6%, followed by Phil Goff at 35% All other small party leaders received a combined coverage of 16.3%, led by Winston Peters at 6.5%
Figure 4 and Table 3: Volume of Media Coverage of Party Leaders
Phil Goff 35% Winston Peters 6% Russel Norman or Metiria Turei 4%
Hone Harawira 2%
Don Brash John Key 2% 49% Peter Dunne 1% Tariana Turia or Pita Sharples 1%
Leader Percentage of Coverage
John Key 48.6% Phil Goff 35.0% Winston Peters 6.5% Russel Norman or Metiria Turei 4.2% Hone Harawira 2.0% Don Brash 1.7% Peter Dunne 1.1% Tariana Turia or Pita Sharples 0.9%
Total 100.0%
2.2 Tone of Party Leaders Media Coverage Overall, there was 12.3% more negative coverage of party leaders than positive
6 The leaders of the two largest parties had similar net negative coverage, with John Key at -13.8% and Phil Goff at -13.4% Don Brash, Winston Peters and Hone Harawira received the most negative coverage as a percentage of their media coverage at 52.5%, 51.3% and 44.7, respectively Peter Dunne and the leaders of the Maori and Green parties received the most positive coverage as a percentage of their media coverage at 48%, 47.6% and 39.8%, respectively
Figure 5: Negative Coverage of Party Leaders
Russel Norman or Metiria Turei
Tariana Turia or Pita Sharples
Peter Dunne
Phil Goff
John Key
Hone Harawira
Winston Peters
Don Brash
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
7 Figure 6: Positive Coverage of Party Leaders
Don Brash
Winston Peters
Hone Harawira
Phil Goff
John Key
Russel Norman or Metiria Turei
Tariana Turia or Pita Sharples
Peter Dunne
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Table 4: Tone of Party Leaders Coverage
Leader Negative Positive Neutral Positive/Negative Difference
Don Brash 52.5% 17.5% 30.0% -35.0% Winston Peters 51.3% 24.3% 24.3% -27.0% Hone Harawira 44.7% 27.7% 27.7% -17.0% John Key 44.4% 30.6% 24.9% -13.8% Phil Goff 42.6% 29.2% 28.1% -13.4% Peter Dunne 32.0% 48.0% 20.0% 16.0% Tariana Turia or Pita Sharples 19.0% 47.6% 33.3% 28.6% Russel Norman or Metiria Turei 8.2% 39.8% 52.0% 31.6%
Total 42.5% 30.2% 27.3% -12.3%
8 Section 3: The Issues
3.1 Leading Policy Issues The economy was the leading policy issue through the first two weeks of the 2011 election campaign, garnering 20.7% of all policy issue media coverage, followed by social and public services at 20.2% and Kiwisaver/superannuation at 12.9%.
Figure 7 and Table 5: Leading Policy Issues
Education
Transport / Infrastructure
Law and Order
Employment
Tax
Environment
State Owned Assets
Kiwisaver / Superannuation
Social and Public Services
Economy
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Issues Percentage of Coverage
Economy 20.7% Social and Public Services 20.2% Kiwisaver / Superannuation 12.9% State Owned Assets 11.2% Environment 8.5% Tax 5.2% Employment 5.0% Law and Order 3.8% Transport / Infrastructure 3.6% Education 2.8% Other 6.2%
Total 100% * Other issues included healthcare, foreign relations/trade, defence/security, immigration, arts/culture/sports, Maori issues, broadcasting/media, business, and science/technology/innovation.
9 3.2 Leading Non-Policy Issues
References to the polls, public opinion and the “horserace” was the leading non- policy issue of the 2011 election through the first two weeks at 44.5%, followed by references to the nature of the campaign at 31.5%.
Figure 8 and Table 6: Leading Non-Policy Issues
Scandals
Personality or personal life
Marketing/Advertising
Coalition/MMP
The Campaign (nature)
Polls/Public Opinion/Horserace
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Non-Policy Issues Percentage of Coverage
Polls/Public Opinion/Horserace 44.5% The Campaign (nature) 31.5% Coalition/MMP (non-referendum) 12.5% Marketing/Advertising 4.5% Personality/personal life 3.8% Scandals 3.3%
Total 100%
10 3.3 The Referendum
From the different electoral system options in the referendum, the current Mixed Member Proportional (MMP) system received the most media coverage at 53.6%, followed by First Past the Post (FPP) at 16.2%. The MMP system had 9.9% more negative coverage than positive, while FPP had 21.1% more negative coverage than positive. The Single Transfer Vote (STV) system received the most net positive coverage, with 32.6% more positive coverage than negative.
Figure 9 and Table 7: Volume of Referendum Electoral System Coverage
STV
PV
SM
FPP
MMP
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Electoral System Options Percentage of Coverage
Mixed Member Proportional (MMP) 53.6% First Past the Post (FPP) 16.2% Supplementary Member (SM) 11.9% Preferential Voting (PV) 9.1% Single Transfer Vote (STV) 9.1%
Total 100%
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Table 8: Tone of Referendum Electoral System Coverage
System Negative Positive Neutral Positive/Negative Difference
Mixed Member Proportional (MMP) 41.7% 31.7% 26.6% -9.9% First Past the Post (FPP) 53.9% 32.9% 13.2% -21.1% Preferential Voting (PV) 27.9% 39.5% 32.6% 11.6% Single Transfer Vote (STV) 20.9% 53.5% 25.6% 32.6% Supplementary Member (SM) 17.9% 48.2% 33.9% 30.4%
Total 37.7% 36.6% 25.7% -1.1%
12 Methodology
The findings in this study are based on a content analysis of leading New Zealand daily newspapers (New Zealand Herald, Dominion Post and The Press) and daily television news programmes (TV1 and TV3 evening news). The findings in this report are based on results from the first two weeks of a four-week study. The first two weeks cover the period from Wednesday 26 October 2011 to (and including) Tuesday 8 November 2011.
Over the first two weeks, 355 media stories were analysed. Stories were selected if they met the following criteria:
Newspapers: From front page, election/politics section or editorial. At least 50% of the content related to the election. Television: From first 10 news stories. At least 50% of the content related to the election.
Within each story, references for the following five categories were identified and coded: 1: Parties (e.g. Labour, National), 2: Party Leaders (e.g. Key, Goff), 3: Policy issues (e.g. economy, tax), 4: Non-policy issues (e.g. polls, scandals), 5: Referendum (e.g. MMP). References to these categories formed the “unit of analysis” (UOA) for this study. In total, 11,782 UOA were identified based on the following distribution amongst the different categories:
Categories Units of Analysis Percentage of Total
Parties 3,458 29.3% Leaders 2,343 19.9% Policy Issues 2,742 23.3% Non-policy Issues 2,769 23.5% Referendum 470 4.0%
Total (N =) 11,782 100%
Tone (positive, negative and neutral) was determined based on matching each reference to a media frame or frames. For example, references to a party leaders as “desperate for power” or “flip-flopper” were coded as negative frames, while references to party leaders as “experienced” or having “bold ideas” would be coded as positive frames. In total, 117 different frames were identified in this study.
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