New Zealand Media Coverage of the 2011 Election Study Mid-way Results (Covering 26 October to 8 November 2011) 10 November 2011 Dr. Babak Bahador and Ms. Katherine Roff School of Social and Political Sciences University of Canterbury Press Contact: Ms. Katherine Roff Tel: 0226293038 Comments and feedback: Dr. Babak Bahador [email protected] Contents Section 1: The Parties ............................................................................................................... 3 1.1 Media Coverage of Leading Parties ................................................................................ 3 Figure 1 and Table 1: Volume of Media Coverage of Parties .......................................... 3 1.2 Tone of Party Media Coverage ....................................................................................... 4 Figure 2: Negative Coverage of Parties ............................................................................ 4 Figure 3: Positive Coverage of Parties.............................................................................. 5 Table 2: Tone of Party Coverage in the Media ................................................................. 5 Section 2: The Party Leaders .................................................................................................... 6 2.1 Media Coverage of Party Leaders................................................................................... 6 Figure 4 and Table 3: Volume of Media Coverage of Party Leaders ............................... 6 2.2 Tone of Party Leaders Media Coverage ......................................................................... 6 Figure 5: Negative Coverage of Party Leaders ................................................................. 7 Figure 6: Positive Coverage of Party Leaders .................................................................. 8 Table 4: Tone of Party Leaders Coverage ........................................................................ 8 Section 3: The Issues ............................................................................................................ 9 3.1 Leading Policy Issues ..................................................................................................... 9 Figure 7 and Table 5: Leading Policy Issues .................................................................... 9 3.2 Leading Non-Policy Issues ........................................................................................... 10 Figure 8 and Table 6: Leading Non-Policy Issues .......................................................... 10 3.3 The Referendum............................................................................................................ 11 Figure 9 and Table 7: Volume of Referendum Electoral System Coverage ................... 11 Table 8: Tone of Referendum Electoral System Coverage ............................................ 12 Methodology ........................................................................................................................... 13 2 Section 1: The Parties 1.1 Media Coverage of Leading Parties National led Labour 40.7% to 36.8% in media coverage devoted to parties Smaller parties receive 22.5% of media coverage for parties, led by The Green Party at 9.7% Figure 1 and Table 1: Volume of Media Coverage of Parties Mana NZ First 2% 2% United Future Maori 1% 3% ACT 5% Green 10% National 41% Labour 37% Party Percentage of Coverage National 40.7% Labour 36.8% Green 9.7% ACT 4.7% Maori 3.0% Mana 2.2% New Zealand First 2.1% United Future 0.8% Total 100% 3 1.2 Tone of Party Media Coverage Overall, there was 11.8% more negative coverage related to parties than positive National received the most negative coverage at 53.9% of its total coverage, while Labour was third at 43.2% The Green Party received the most positive coverage at 51.5% of its total coverage National had 27.5% more negative coverage than positive, while Labour had 10.8% more. The Green Party received the most net positive coverage at 41.7%. Figure 2: Negative Coverage of Parties National ACT Labour New Zealand First Maori Mana United Future Green 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 4 Figure 3: Positive Coverage of Parties Green United Future Maori Mana Labour New Zealand First National ACT 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Table 2: Tone of Party Coverage in the Media Party Negative Positive Neutral Positive/Negative Difference National 53.9% 26.4% 19.6% -27.5% ACT 43.8% 24.1% 32.1% -19.8% Labour 43.2% 32.4% 24.4% -10.8% New Zealand First 41.1% 28.8% 30.1% -12.3% Maori 31.4% 34.3% 34.3% 2.9% Mana 21.1% 32.9% 46.1% 11.8% United Future 19.2% 42.3% 38.5% 23.1% Green 9.8% 51.5% 38.7% 41.7% All Parties 43.3% 31.5% 25.2% -11.8% 5 Section 2: The Party Leaders 2.1 Media Coverage of Party Leaders John Key received the largest amount of media coverage amongst party leaders at 48.6%, followed by Phil Goff at 35% All other small party leaders received a combined coverage of 16.3%, led by Winston Peters at 6.5% Figure 4 and Table 3: Volume of Media Coverage of Party Leaders Phil Goff 35% Winston Peters 6% Russel Norman or Metiria Turei 4% Hone Harawira 2% Don Brash John Key 2% 49% Peter Dunne 1% Tariana Turia or Pita Sharples 1% Leader Percentage of Coverage John Key 48.6% Phil Goff 35.0% Winston Peters 6.5% Russel Norman or Metiria Turei 4.2% Hone Harawira 2.0% Don Brash 1.7% Peter Dunne 1.1% Tariana Turia or Pita Sharples 0.9% Total 100.0% 2.2 Tone of Party Leaders Media Coverage Overall, there was 12.3% more negative coverage of party leaders than positive 6 The leaders of the two largest parties had similar net negative coverage, with John Key at -13.8% and Phil Goff at -13.4% Don Brash, Winston Peters and Hone Harawira received the most negative coverage as a percentage of their media coverage at 52.5%, 51.3% and 44.7, respectively Peter Dunne and the leaders of the Maori and Green parties received the most positive coverage as a percentage of their media coverage at 48%, 47.6% and 39.8%, respectively Figure 5: Negative Coverage of Party Leaders Russel Norman or Metiria Turei Tariana Turia or Pita Sharples Peter Dunne Phil Goff John Key Hone Harawira Winston Peters Don Brash 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 7 Figure 6: Positive Coverage of Party Leaders Don Brash Winston Peters Hone Harawira Phil Goff John Key Russel Norman or Metiria Turei Tariana Turia or Pita Sharples Peter Dunne 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Table 4: Tone of Party Leaders Coverage Leader Negative Positive Neutral Positive/Negative Difference Don Brash 52.5% 17.5% 30.0% -35.0% Winston Peters 51.3% 24.3% 24.3% -27.0% Hone Harawira 44.7% 27.7% 27.7% -17.0% John Key 44.4% 30.6% 24.9% -13.8% Phil Goff 42.6% 29.2% 28.1% -13.4% Peter Dunne 32.0% 48.0% 20.0% 16.0% Tariana Turia or Pita Sharples 19.0% 47.6% 33.3% 28.6% Russel Norman or Metiria Turei 8.2% 39.8% 52.0% 31.6% Total 42.5% 30.2% 27.3% -12.3% 8 Section 3: The Issues 3.1 Leading Policy Issues The economy was the leading policy issue through the first two weeks of the 2011 election campaign, garnering 20.7% of all policy issue media coverage, followed by social and public services at 20.2% and Kiwisaver/superannuation at 12.9%. Figure 7 and Table 5: Leading Policy Issues Education Transport / Infrastructure Law and Order Employment Tax Environment State Owned Assets Kiwisaver / Superannuation Social and Public Services Economy 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Issues Percentage of Coverage Economy 20.7% Social and Public Services 20.2% Kiwisaver / Superannuation 12.9% State Owned Assets 11.2% Environment 8.5% Tax 5.2% Employment 5.0% Law and Order 3.8% Transport / Infrastructure 3.6% Education 2.8% Other 6.2% Total 100% * Other issues included healthcare, foreign relations/trade, defence/security, immigration, arts/culture/sports, Maori issues, broadcasting/media, business, and science/technology/innovation. 9 3.2 Leading Non-Policy Issues References to the polls, public opinion and the “horserace” was the leading non- policy issue of the 2011 election through the first two weeks at 44.5%, followed by references to the nature of the campaign at 31.5%. Figure 8 and Table 6: Leading Non-Policy Issues Scandals Personality or personal life Marketing/Advertising Coalition/MMP The Campaign (nature) Polls/Public Opinion/Horserace 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Non-Policy Issues Percentage of Coverage Polls/Public Opinion/Horserace 44.5% The Campaign (nature) 31.5% Coalition/MMP (non-referendum) 12.5% Marketing/Advertising 4.5% Personality/personal life 3.8% Scandals 3.3% Total 100% 10 3.3 The Referendum From the different electoral system options in the referendum, the current Mixed Member Proportional (MMP) system received the most media coverage at 53.6%, followed by First Past the Post (FPP) at 16.2%. The MMP system had 9.9% more negative coverage than positive, while FPP had 21.1% more negative coverage than positive. The Single Transfer Vote (STV) system received the most net positive coverage, with 32.6% more positive coverage than negative. Figure 9 and Table 7: Volume of Referendum Electoral System Coverage STV PV SM FPP MMP 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Electoral System Options Percentage of Coverage Mixed Member Proportional (MMP) 53.6% First Past the Post (FPP) 16.2% Supplementary Member (SM) 11.9% Preferential Voting (PV) 9.1% Single Transfer Vote (STV) 9.1% Total 100% 11 Table 8: Tone of Referendum Electoral System Coverage System Negative Positive Neutral Positive/Negative Difference Mixed Member Proportional (MMP) 41.7% 31.7% 26.6% -9.9% First Past the Post (FPP) 53.9% 32.9% 13.2%