Carbon-Neutral Finland Report in English
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Date Page 2020-09-16 1 (29) Abstract Finland aims to become carbon-neutral by 2035. Carbon-neutrality would mean that Finland sequesters as much fossil-fuel carbon dioxide as it releases into the atmosphere in the form of emissions. This document examines the utilisation of carbon dioxide side streams from industry and power stations (hereinafter referred to as CO2 side streams) for the production of carbon-neutral liquid fuels for transportation. The principle behind the idea is that the electrification of transportation will not be able to cover every area of transportation in the near future, particularly in air and ship traffic, but liquid fuels that can substitute for fossil fuels based on hydrocarbons will also be needed in road transport long into the future. They will continue to need carbon dioxide and hydrogen as raw materials. Carbon dioxide can be sequestered directly out of the air (the global carbon dioxide concentration in the air averaged 407.41 ppm, or 0.04074%, on 20 February 2020), or side streams from industry and power stations can be utilised (> 10–30%). Hydrogen is made from water by electrolysis, a process that uses emission-free electricity. In Finland's case, wind power, and the solar power that supplements it, is ideally suited to this. Finland has a unique opportunity to produce carbon-neutral fuels. We have a substantial forestry industry, which ensures an abundance of bio-based carbon dioxide, and a sparsely populated country with a lot of water and plenty of space for wind power. In this document, we will examine three different scenarios. The first represents Business as Usual (BAU), corresponding to current estimates of how the situation will develop. In the other two scenarios, Finland has begun to utilise Power-to-X (P2X) technology alongside the existing situation, enabling synthetic fuels to be produced from the air, water and clean electricity. The scenarios under examination are as follows: 1. BAU: industrial CO2 side streams are not utilised. 2. BAU + P2X Bio: the ten largest bio-based CO2 side streams from Finnish industry are utilised (chemical pulp plants), accounting for 85% of the country's bio-based side streams. 3. BAU + P2X Bio&Fossil: all fossil- and bio-based CO2 side streams are utilised. In the BAU scenario, electricity consumption increases by 70%, in the BAU + P2X Bio scenario, it increases by 270%, and in the BAU + P2X Bio&Fossil scenario, it increases by 530%. However, in the BAU + P2X Bio scenario, the volume of fuels produced for transport would exceed consumption by 60%, meaning that if the bio-based CO2 side streams from the ten largest CO2- emitting localities were utilised to the full, this amount (60%) of carbon-neutral liquid fuel would be available to export. This BAU + P2X Bio scenario is a technically realistic option, and it could transform Finland from a country that imports fossil fuels into one that exports carbon-neutral fuels, thereby achieving carbon neutrality in this regard and becoming independent from fuel imports. 1 https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-atmospheric-carbon-dioxide Date Page 2020-09-16 2 (29) Table of contents ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................................................................. 1 CARBON-NEUTRAL FINLAND ................................................................................................................................ 4 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................................................... 4 CARBON DIOXIDE BALANCES ....................................................................................................................................... 4 Carbon dioxide emissions from transport ................................................................................................................ 4 Sources of industrial CO2 side streams in Finland in 2018 (million tonnes CO2-eq)................................................. 5 SOLUTION ................................................................................................................................................................... 6 Synthetic, carbon-neutral fuels for transport ............................................................................................................ 6 Utilisation of side streams in carbon dioxide capture ............................................................................................... 8 Carbon-neutral Finland from the perspective of fuels for transport ........................................................................... 9 Piloting – the Joutseno P2X pilot project ................................................................................................................. 9 OPPORTUNITIES FOR FINLAND ................................................................................................................................... 10 SCENARIOS FOR TRENDS IN FINLAND'S ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION ................................................. 11 SCENARIOS 2020–2040 ............................................................................................................................................. 11 Business as Usual (BAU) ...................................................................................................................................... 12 BAU + P2X Bio ................................................................................................................................................... 13 BAU + P2X Bio&Fossil ....................................................................................................................................... 14 SUMMARY OF THE SCENARIOS ................................................................................................................................... 15 DISCUSSION .............................................................................................................................................................. 16 GEOGRAPHICAL DEPENDENCE OF THE DEMAND FOR AND GENERATION OF ELECTRICAL ENERGY .................................................................................................................................................................... 17 ELECTRICAL ENERGY REQUIRED TO MANUFACTURE HYDROGEN .................................................................................. 17 FINLAND'S WIND POWER GENERATION POTENTIAL ...................................................................................................... 19 Current wind power projects ................................................................................................................................. 19 New wind power potential .................................................................................................................................... 20 DEPENDENCIES BETWEEN THE DEMAND FOR ELECTRICITY AND WIND POWER GENERATION .......................................... 22 Date Page 2020-09-16 3 (29) Scenarios Scenario 1 Business as Usual Industrial CO2 side streams are not utilised Scenario 2 BAU + P2X Bio 85% of industrial bio-based CO2 side streams are utilised Scenario 3 BAU + P2X Bio&Fossil All industrial CO2 side streams are utilised Figures Figure 1 Tero Tynjälä, 2019, Tampere: Sequestration of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere Figure 2 Refinement of synthetic, carbon-neutral liquid fuel from the CO2 side stream of a chemical pulp plant Figure 3 The P2X process in Joutseno: parties and end-products Figure 4 Increase in demand for electricity in the baseline scenario Figure 5 Increase in demand for electricity if the carbon dioxide emissions of chemical pulp plants (21 million tonnes CO2) are recycled to create fuels Figure 6 Electricity consumption when all bio- and fossil-based carbon dioxide is recycled to create fuels Figure 7 Spot sources of Finland's carbon dioxide and the amount of electricity needed to convert it into fuel. Figure 8 Percentage distribution of the required electricity into top-level categories; bio-based and all CO2 sources Figure 9 Projects currently in planning and implementation Figure 10 Wind power construction areas selected as examples on the basis of wind speed, and the annual generation curve of an Enercon EP5-160 turbine Figure 11 Dependencies between electricity consumption and generation Tables Table 1 Greenhouse gas emissions in 2018 Table 2 International air traffic Table 3 Emissions and energy use in Finnish domestic transport in 2018 Table 4 Total traffic emissions, summary Table 5 Summary of carbon dioxide side streams Table 6 Summary of the potential of synthetic fuels Table 7 Summary of the different scenarios Table 8 Balances in different scenarios (carbon dioxide, electrical energy, fuel production, increase in consumption) Table 9 Assessment of Finland's wind power potential Appendices Appendix 1 Greenhouse gas emissions and sequestration by sector, 2013–2018 Appendix 2 LIPASTO: Emissions and energy use in Finnish domestic transport in 2018 Appendix 3 Results of the ALIISA car stock model in 2018 Appendix 4 Sources of industrial CO2 side streams in Finland in 2018 Appendix 5 CO2 sources by locality and region (millions of tonnes of CO2 per year) Appendix 6 CO2 sources by region (millions of tonnes of CO2 per year) Date Page 2020-09-16 4 (29) Carbon-neutral Finland Introduction The purpose of this document is to use