Free ebooks ==> www.Ebook777.com US/CAN $19.95 BusINESS & EcONOMIcs A Do-It-Yourself Guide to Financial, Commercial, Political, Social and Cultural Collapse …one of the best writers on the scene today, working at the top of his game. There is more to enjoy in this book with every page you turn, and in very uncertain times, Orlov’s advice is, at its core, kind-spirited and extraordinarily helpful. Albert Bates, author, The Biochar Solution When thinking about political paralysis, looming resource shortages and a rapidly changing climate, many of us can do no better than imagine a future that is just less of the same. But it is during such periods of profound disruption that sweeping cultural change becomes inevitable. In The Five Stages of Collapse, Dmitry Orlov posits a taxonomy of collapse, suggesting that if the first three stages (financial, commercial and political) are met with the appropriate personal and social transformations, then the worst consequences of social and cultural collapse can be avoided. Drawing on a detailed examination of both pre- and post-collapse societies, The Five Stages of Collapse provides a unique perspective on the typical characteristics of highly resilient communities. Both successful and unsuccessful adaptations are explored in the areas of finance, commerce, self-governance, social organization and culture. Case studies provide a wealth of specifics for each stage of collapse, focusing on the Icelanders, the Russian Mafia, the Pashtuns of Central Asia, the Roma of nowhere in particular and the Ik of East Africa. The Five Stages of Collapse provides a wealth of practical information and a long list of to-do items for those who wish to survive each stage with their health, sanity, friendships, family relationships and sense of humor intact. Shot through with Orlov’s trademark dark humor, this is an invaluable toolkit for crafting workable post-collapse solutions at the scale of the family and the community. …Orlov does us all a great service by teasing apart the kinds and degrees of collapse so that we can prepare for what is likely and “dig in our heels” to prevent what is unsurvivable. Richard Heinberg, Senior Fellow, Post Carbon Institute, author, The End of Growth Dmitry Orlov was born in Leningrad and immigrated to the United States in the 1970’s. He is the author of Reinventing Collapse, Hold Your Applause! and Absolutely Positive, and publishes weekly at the phenomenally popular blog ClubOrlov.com. www.newsociety.com www.Ebook777.com Free ebooks ==> www.Ebook777.com Praise for The Five Stages of Collapse Profound insight combined with wry humor is such an incendiary weapon I am tempted to call The Five Stages of Collapse an “Orlov Cocktail.” His delivery of hard truths laced with irony saturates us in seldom reported but extremely relevant facts about the world. He is one of the best writers on the scene today, working at the top of his game. There is more to enjoy in this book with every page you turn, and in very uncertain times, Orlov’s advice is, at its core, kind-spirited and extra ordinarily helpful. — Albert Bates, author, The Biochar Solution Even if I believed collapse were impossible I’d still read everything Dmitry Orlov writes: he’s that entertaining. Unfortunately, however, collapse of some sort or other, of some degree or another, is almost guaranteed. Orlov does us all a great service by teasing apart the kinds and degrees of collapse so that we can prepare for what is likely and “dig in our heels” to prevent what is unsurvivable. — Richard Heinberg, Senior Fellow, Post Carbon Institute, author, The End of Growth At a time when most talk about the prospect of collapse tends to wan- der off into vague generalities, Orlov’s latest book offers a welcome dose of clear thinking. Compulsively readable, firmly grounded in real-world examples, and laced with his usual mordant wit, The Five Stages of Collapse deserves space on the bookshelf of anyone concerned about the future of industrial civilization. — John Michael Greer, author, Green Wizardry www.Ebook777.com THE FIVE STAGES of COLLAPSE Survivors’ Toolkit Dmitry Orlov Free ebooks ==> www.Ebook777.com Cataloguing in Publication Data: A catalog record for this publication is available from the National Library of Canada. Copyright © 2013 by Dmitry Orlov. All rights reserved. Cover design by Diane McIntosh and Matt Harter. Cover and interior illustrations by Mark David Paterson, used by kind permission. Printed in Canada. First printing March 2013. Paperback isbn: 978-0-86571-736-7 eisbn: 978-1-55092-527-2 Inquiries regarding requests to reprint all or part of The Five Stages of Collapse should be addressed to New Society Publishers at the address below. To order directly from the publishers, please call toll-free (North America) 1-800-567-6772, or order online at www.newsociety.com Any other inquiries can be directed by mail to: New Society Publishers P.O. Box 189, Gabriola Island, BC V0R 1X0, Canada (250) 247-9737 New Society Publishers’ mission is to publish books that contribute in fundamental ways to building an ecologically sustainable and just society, and to do so with the least possible impact on the environment, in a manner that models this vision. We are committed to doing this not just through education, but through action. The interior pages of our bound books are printed on Forest Stewardship Council®- registered acid-free paper that is 100% post-consumer recycled (100% old growth forest-free), processed chlorine free, and printed with vegetable-based, low-VOC inks, with covers produced using FSC®-registered stock. New Society also works to reduce its carbon footprint, and purchases carbon offsets based on an annual audit to ensure a carbon neutral footprint. For further information, or to browse our full list of books and purchase securely, visit our website at: www.newsociety.com www.Ebook777.com Contents Introduction: Collapses in General .......... 1 What is collapse? .................... 6 When will collapse occur? ................ 10 What are the stages of collapse? ............. 13 1. Financial Collapse ................... 17 The root of the problem ................. 8 1 The wrong math .................... 21 Defaults big and small .................. 24 The end of money .................... 26 Options for cashing out ................. 32 Alternatives to money .................. 9 3 How we did it. 43 Chits, specie and stock-in-trade ............. 46 A likely endgame .................... 48 Cold-starting instructions ................ 49 Beware financial despotism ............... 0 5 Monetary mysticism .................. 54 The untrustworthy and the trustful ............ 57 Götterdämmerung .................... 61 Case Study: Iceland .................. 63 2. Commercial Collapse ................. 73 Cascaded failure .................... 75 Liar word: efficiency ................... 78 Life upside down .................... 83 The many advantages of gift ............... 90 Money corrupts ..................... 94 Opportunities for gift-giving ............... 96 Meanwhile in Soviet Russia ............... 98 The new normal .................... 99 A cultural flip ...................... 101 Case Study: The Russian Mafia. 105 v vi TE H FIVE STAGES of COLLAPSE 3. Political Collapse ................... 123 Anarchy’s charms .................... 125 The nation-state fades out ................ 139 National language .................... 142 Taking care of your own ................. 146 State religion ...................... 147 Life after the nation-state ................ 150 The problem of excessive scale .............. 151 The proliferation of defunct states ............ 157 Government services disappear ............. 162 Denationalization of currency .............. 165 What governments are good at .............. 169 Warfare becomes self-defeating ............. 169 The end of law and order ................ 171 The end of the welfare state ............... 176 Virtualized politics ................... 179 Case Study: The Pashtuns ............... 189 4. Social Collapse .................... 195 The limits of community planning ............ 197 The new rules ...................... 200 Social reclamation ................... 202 Religion as organizing principle ............. 203 Charitable giving and taking ............... 208 What society? ..................... 209 Case Study: The Roma ................. 211 5. Cultural Collapse ................... 227 Humans and other animals ............... 230 The limits of language .................. 233 Spoken memory .................... 236 The isolated human ................... 239 The primacy of family .................. 241 Case Study: The Ik ................... 245 Afterword ....................... 261 Endnotes ....................... 265 Bibliography ...................... 267 Index ......................... 269 About the Author ................... 281 INTRODUCTION Collapses in General Collapse is a socially awkward subject. Serious men sometimes dis- cuss it, in a spare moment or over drinks, in hushed tones. The topic is very rarely broached in mixed company, and hardly at all when there are children present. For certain specialists —â scientists, engineers and, more recently, those working in finance —â collapse is fast becoming the elephant in the room. The enforced silence causes these specialists much frustration, since it is becoming increasingly difficult for them, based on the data at their disposal, to formulate, in their own minds, a scenario that does not culminate in