FEBRUARY 2017 ISSUE NO. 170 Somalia: A Failed State? HARISH VENUGOPALAN ABSTRACT It will not be an exaggeration to say that almost all the countries in Africa face some form of conflict. Yet, most of them have managed to survive, and some—like South Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo—have even evolved into reasonably successful states. However, Somalia has not. What are the reasons for Somalia's failure to survive? Did external interventions play a role? Was Islamophobia a contributing factor, and the inter-clan civil war, too? This paper finds that although there have been many reasons, such as unnecessary interventions—especially the case of Ethiopian in 2006—the failure of Somalia as a state is mostly because of a lack of an effective leadership. INTRODUCTION In the 19th and the first half of the 20th From 1960 until 1969, Somalia was a centuries, colonialist countries divided democratic state. Through a coup d'etat in Somalia into five parts—the United Kingdom 1969, Siyad Barre came to power. Barre forged (UK) took two parts while Italy, Ethiopia and close ties with the Soviet Union, which France took one each. The Somalis fought for provided aid to Somalia throughout the independence from all the colonial powers. 1970s. Trouble started when Barre attempted Northern and Southern Somalia gained to take back the Ogaden Somali territory from independence on 26 June 1960 and 01 July Ethiopia and the Soviets decided to back 1960, respectively. All parts of Somalia would Ethiopia. This enraged Barre, resulting in eventually form a Greater Somalia.1 Somalia and the Soviet Union severing their Observer Research Foundation (ORF) is a public policy think-tank that aims to influence the formulation of policies for building a strong and prosperous India. ORF pursues these goals by providing informed and productive inputs, in-depth research, and stimulating discussions. The Foundation is supported in its mission by a cross-section of India’s leading public figures, as well as academic and business leaders. Somalia: A Failed State? ties. Consequently, the United States (US) Aidid and Ali Mahdi Mohamed, thousands of became close to Somalia. The US gave Somalia Somali civilians were killed and wounded. By foreign aid for military technology, 1992, an estimated 350,000 Somali people amounting to US $163.5 million between had died due to disease, starvation or as direct 1980 and 1988, and four times that for casualties of the civil war. Following this, the economic development. United Nations Security Council (UNSC) approved a military mission called 'Operation By the late 1980s, after the Ogaden war, Restoration Hope', entrusting the US with the Barre's policies in the north resulted in task of protecting the food shipments from discontent amongst the Isaaq clan. (There are the warlords. However, the US got involved in five major clans in Somalia—the Isaaq, entanglements with local groups. Darood, Digil and Mirifle, Dir, and Hawiye—and various smaller clans.2) The In 1993, Somali rebels shot down two US Isaaq were the largest northern clan, and they helicopters, killing 18 US Army rangers and felt isolated from the current politics and state one Malaysian UN soldier. A severe battle resources. Some moves, such as resettling of followed, which claimed the lives of hundreds Ogaden refugees in northern areas, were seen of Somali civilians. In 1994, the US formally as southern attempts to subvert northern ended its mission in Somalia, which had cost interests. There was an uprising against Barre, the US $1.7 billion and left 43 American led by the northern Isaaq clan, and in soldiers dead and 153 injured.6 response, Barre ordered bombings of northern towns, villages and even rural The United Nations Operations in Somalia encampments. Gradually, the uprisings would (UNOSOM), which was a more well-developed spread to the southern areas, and in 1992 move to bring about stability to the country, Barre was forced to flee.3 Somalia's defeat in instead of achieving its target, entered into a the war led to a bitter blame-game. This conflict with the powerful warlord, Gen. ultimately resulted in uprisings against him.4 Mohammed Farah Aidid. The UNOSOM failed, and left Somalia in a permanent state of 7 CHAOS IN SOMALIA AFTER BARRE collapse and war. Somalis suffered heavily under Aidid's reign and from subsequent As a result, Siyad Barre fled Mogadishu in fighting among warlords. Following Gen. January 1991. Troops commanded by Gen. Mohammed Farah Aidid's assassination, Mohamed Farah Aidid pursued Siyad Barre, Hussain Farah Aidid took over.8 But this did while Ali Mahdi Mohamed, who was a wealthy not result in a stable administration. Mogadishu businessman, declared himself the new president and formed a government. In It was only in 1999, through a conference the north, the Isaaq clans formed an sponsored by the Republic of Djibouti, that independent Somaliland. Ali Mahdi's claims assistance was given to Somali civil society to power were not recognised by groups groups, after which the negotiating parties beyond his own control.5 came to an agreement that paved the way for the Transitional National Government (TNG). As a result of the power struggle between While this could have been a turning point in the two warring clan lords, Mohammed Farah Somali history, the TNG failed, mainly due to 2 ORF ISSUE BRIEF No. 170 l FEBRUARY 2017 Somalia: A Failed State? the incompetence and greed of its leaders the conference were Kenya and Ethiopia. They combined with the relentless attempts of chose to form a tactical alliance with the Ethiopia and its allies to undermine the warlords. This resulted in the emergence of a agreement.9 new government led by the warlords in 2004. Ethiopia, through its influence, was able to Over a period of 16 years, Somalia had 14 dictate the choice of president and prime failed attempts at forming a government. One minister to their advantage.12 The old SSRC of the fundamental problems was that the coalition was fiercely anti-Islamic in nature TNG was dominated by Mogadishu-based and based outside Mogadishu. On the other clans, especially the Hawiye/Haber Gedir/Ayr hand, the Mogadishu-based coalition was sub clans, and thus was not a national unity supported by the Arab world, had an anti- government. It faced opposition in the form of Ethiopian attitude and contained Islamists in a loose coalition of clans called Somali its alliance. It preferred a strong unity Reconciliation and Rehabilitation Council government rather than a federalist state and (SRRC), which was backed by Ethiopia. The was dominated by the Hawiye clan. SRRC's leader was Abdullahi Yusuf, president of the autonomous state of Puntland in The IGAD made another attempt to bring northeast Somalia.10 about peace in 2002. In the past, it was common practice to decide which clan would In the second half of the '90s, commercial control what territories. Due to continuous opportunities opened up in Somalia. While pressure from the IGAD in general and businessmen had to pay security to the militia, Ethiopia in particular, there was success in the they did not receive substantial security in form of a 275-member parliament in August return. This frustrated them, and thus, they and the 4.5 formula in September 2004.13 surreptitiously paid the militiamen and According to the 4.5 formula, an equal number ensured that the gunmen were under the of places were allocated to each of the four command of the local Sharia courts. The major clans and half the places that were Sharia militia became a reputed security allotted to a clan were allocated to minorities source, more reliable than the warlords' and women.14 groups. The TNG government which was formed in 2000 ensured that the Sharia In October 2004, Abdullahi Yusuf from the militias declined temporarily as the business Mijerteen/Darood clan was selected as groups also shifted their support to the new president of the Transitional Federal government. After the TNG failed, the Government (TFG). Yusuf was also president businessmen formed huge private security of the autonomous state of Puntland in forces to protect their assets. These private northeast Somalia and a close ally of Ethiopia. groups became the most powerful militias in Yusuf made Mohammed Ghedi his prime Mogadishu, unchallenged until 2006.11 minister. Ghedi, too, had very good relations with Ethiopia. The 82-member Cabinet that Eventually, the TNG was forced into Ghedi formed, though it followed the 4.5 accepting the peace conference sponsored by pattern, was made up of supporters of the the Intergovernmental Authority on SRRC alliance. The TNG was virtually isolated Development (IGAD). The chief directors of with people associated with it getting no ORF ISSUE BRIEF No. 170 l FEBRUARY 2017 3 Somalia: A Failed State? substantial positions. Moreover, there were with the TFG. At least three assassination charges of corruption that insinuated that attempts were made on Yusuf and Ghedi in votes of MPs were purchased using Ethiopian 2005. By mid-2005, the SCIC was the money. strongest political and military force in Mogadishu. PEACE PROCESS: AN ANALYSIS A missed opportunity was the failure of the The Kenyan peace process failed because the civic system that emerged from the root causes of the conflict were not properly Mogadishu Security and Stabilization Plan addressed—and for this, both the Somali (MSSP) in 2015. This was a loose alliance that groups and the ineffective international consisted of some major political figures from mediators were responsible. Some of the the Hawiye clan, especially from the Ayr sub- militia leaders refused to sit in the same room clan; Hawiye warlords including some in the as the TFG cabinet.