Fragile Contexts in 2018
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Concepts and Dilemmas of State Building in Fragile Situations FROM FRAGILITY TO RESILIENCE OECD/DAC DISCUSSION PAPER Concepts and Dilemmas of State Building in Fragile Situations FROM FRAGILITY TO RESILIENCE ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT The OECD is a unique forum where the governments of 30 democracies work together to address the economic, social and environmental challenges of globalisation.The OECD is also at the forefront of efforts to understand and to help governments respond to new developments and concerns, such as corporate governance, the information economy and the challenges of an ageing population. The Organisation provides a setting where governments can compare policy experiences, seek answers to common problems, identify good practice and work to co-ordinate domestic and international policies. The OECD member countries are: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, the Slovak Republic, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States. The Commission of the European Communities takes part in the work of the OECD. OECD Publishing disseminates widely the results of the Organisation's statistics gathering and research on economic, social and environmental issues, as well as the conventions, guidelines and standards agreed by its members. Off-print of the Journal on Development 2008, Volume 9, No. 3 Also available in French FOREWORD Foreword Today it is widely accepted that development, peace and stability require effective and legitimate states able to fulfil key international responsibilities and to provide core public goods and services, including security. -
Drivers of Fragility: What Makes States Fragile?
Working Paper for Discussion Only Not UK Government Policy DEPARTMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PRDE WORKING PAPER NO. 7 DRIVERS OF FRAGILITY: WHAT MAKES STATES FRAGILE? April 2005 Claire Vallings and Magüi Moreno-Torres This Working Paper is part of a series prepared by the Poverty Reduction in Difficult Environments (PRDE) team in the Department for International Development’s Policy Division. It represents solely the views of those involved in its drafting and does not necessarily represent official policy. Please send all feedback to Claire Vallings at [email protected]. 0 Drivers of Fragility: What Makes States Fragile? Contents Executive summary..........................................................................................2 I. Introduction: what drives fragility? .....................................................4 II. The central driver of fragility: weak political institutions .....................7 A. What makes the institutional set-up weak? ......................................... 8 B. How does an unchecked executive relate to weak institutions?........ 10 C. How does limited political participation relate to weak institutions? .. 11 III. Other drivers of fragility................................................................13 A. Economic development ..................................................................... 14 B. Natural resources .............................................................................. 17 C. Violent conflict .................................................................................. -
The Somali Crisis: Failed State and International Interventions
Istituto Affari Internazionali IAI WORKING PAPERS 12 | 15 – May 2012 The Somali Crisis: Failed State and International Interventions Rossella Marangio Abstract The long-lasting Somali conflict is profoundly linked to the country’s historical development and its socio-cultural specificities. The political milieu and the struggle for power in Somalia reflect the cleavage between tradition and modernity. This rift has led to a legitimacy vacuum, which has made it difficult for the warring parties to find enough common ground for a compromise. Furthermore, external influences, at both regional and international levels, have contributed to the fragmentation of the political arena, due notably to the emphasis on the use of force as the principal tool for acquiring or maintaining power. In this unfolding crisis, regional pressures and rivalries, international interventions, economic and strategic interests as well as piracy, corruption and Islamic extremism all play an interlocking role. In view of this, a new approach to the crisis is badly needed. The EU, in particular, should promote a new strategy based on three components: enhancement of social cohesion through local cooperation programmes, state-building and development. Keywords : Somalia / Civil conflict / Society / European Union / Military intervention / European Union Training Mission (EUTM) Somalia / Piracy / European Naval Force Somalia- Operation Atalanta (EUNAVFOR Atalanta) / Regional Maritime Capacity Building (RMCB) / African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) © 2012 IAI IAI Working Papers 1215 The Somali Crisis: Failed State and International Interventions The Somali Crisis: Failed State and International Interventions by Rossella Marangio ∗ Introduction The civil war in Somalia has been ravaging the country for two decades. The difficulties in achieving peace have highlighted the powerlessness of the international community. -
Fragile States Index 2015
FRAGILE STATES INDEX 2015 THE FUND FOR PEACE The Fund for Peace is an independent, nonpartisan, 501(c)(3) non-profit research and educational organization that works to prevent violent conflict and promote sustainable security. We promote sustainable security through research, training and education, engagement of civil society, building bridges across diverse sectors, and developing innovative technologies and tools for policy makers. A leader in the conflict assessment and early warning field, The Fund for Peace focuses on the problems of weak and failing states. Our objective is to create practical tools and approaches for conflict mitigation that are useful to decision-makers. Copyright © 2015 The Fund for Peace. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent from The Fund for Peace. Report Edited by Assessment Directed by J. J. Messner Nate Haken Report Written by J. J. Messner, Nate Haken, Patricia Taft, Hannah Blyth, Kendall Lawrence, Sebastian Pavlou Graham, Felipe Umaña Assessment Supported by Alex Young, Ania Skinner, Katie Cornelius Circulation: PUBLIC The Fund for Peace T: +1 202 223 7940 1101 14th Street NW, Suite 1020 F: +1 202 223 7947 Washington, D.C. 20005 www.fundforpeace.org The Fund for Peace is grateful for the support of: Foreign Policy magazine is the media partner of the Fragile States Index www.foreignpolicy.com www.fundforpeace.org Fragile States Index 2015: Overview The Fragile States Index is an annual The Index in Figures ranking of 178 nations based on their levels of Index of Country Analysis 2015 Map 4 stability and the pressures they face. -
Failed States in Theoretical, Historical, and Policy Perspectives
Failed States in Theoretical, Historical, and Policy Perspectives Jean-Gennaln Gros 1 Introduction Olobalizalion and interdependence compel .. 10 think aftuh about how w. man. our joint acllvities and shared in ....su. for many chan..... that we confront today "'" beyond the "",c/l of anyone slate 10 meel o. I.. OWn. At the national level we must govern beI..r; Dnd at the international leve1 we must gO\'tm beuer wge.ther-. Bff'cctive states are es&erl(ial 10 both task •• Kofl Annan (2000) These words from a former secretary-general of the United Nations underscore one of the NAlilies and challenges of the post-Cold War era: the unsuitabilily of failed Slates in a world in which the solution 10 problems from global warming to poverty requires stales that can al:lon their own. as well as in unison with other stalCS and non-stale institulions. Annan's statement also confirms Ihat the sludy oHailed Slales has taken center slage in international relations. Some oflhe mosl innuential works include LWilliam Zanman's Col1opsed Slates 1995, which is concerned primarily with Africa. Robert Rotherg's Whell States Fail (2004) provides detailed and graphic descriptions of state failure and its conse quences. Rother,'s description of the failed state as "a polily that is no longer able Of willing to perform the fundamental IaSks of a nation-stale in the IIlQdern world" and his notion that "failure is a Iluid halting place, with movemenl back 10 weakness and forward into collapse always possible" underscore a fundamental aspect ofstate failure that is often ignored: its dynamic nature. -
Effectiveness of Democracy-Support in "Fragile States": a Review
Discussion Paper 1/2013 Effectiveness of Democracy-Support in "Fragile States": a Review Kimana Zulueta-Fülscher Effectiveness of democracy-support in “fragile states”: a review Kimana Zulueta-Fülscher Bonn 2013 Discussion Paper / Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik ISSN 1860-0441 Die deutsche Nationalbibliothek verzeichnet diese Publikation in der Deutschen Nationalbibliografie; detaillierte bibliografische Daten sind im Internet über http://dnb.d-nb.de abrufbar. The Deutsche Nationalbibliothek lists this publication in the Deutsche Nationalbibliografie; detailed bibliographic data is available in the Internet at http://dnb.d-nb.de. ISBN 978-3-88985-624-1 Dr Kimana Zulueta-Fülscher, German Development Institute / Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik (DIE), Senior Researcher, Department “Governance, Statehood, Security” E-mail: [email protected] © Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik gGmbH Tulpenfeld 6, 53113 Bonn +49 (0)228 94927-0 +49 (0)228 94927-130 E-mail: [email protected] http://www.die-gdi.de Abstract Over the past decade, the interest in aid effectiveness has grown exponentially, with a proliferation of both praxis-oriented evaluations and academic studies. At the same time, the rising interest in “fragile states” has prompted the aid-effectiveness literature to focus its attention on this category of states. Parallel to the development of the aid-effectiveness literature, the literature on the impact of specific development-aid sectors has also surged. The increasing number of analyses on the impact of external policies contributing to processes of political transformation (democratisation or stabilisation) has been remarkable. This discussion paper thematises the growing literature on both fragility and the effectiveness of democracy support, with a special focus on the quantitative literature. -
Identifying Truly Fragile States
Seth Kaplan Identifying Truly Fragile States That the Arab Spring caught the world off guard is hardly surprising. Interpreting overt stability as a reflection of fundamental strength or resiliency has often set the international community up for surprise. Few forecast the dissolution of the Soviet Union, for example; far too few in Washington anticipated what would follow the invasion of Iraq. These are reminders that apparent stability can be little more than an illusion. The converse can be equally misleading. Just as the international community tends to see stability as strength, it often equates crisis with fundamental fragility. Many countries face episodes of crisis, some of which can even initiate transitions to new political orders. But not all such countries are structurally fragile, plagued by deeply entrenched sociopolitical and institutional problems. Some states pass through their fragile moments relatively easily, leveraging their assets to reorient themselves in more positive directions within reasonable periods of time. States that are fundamentally fragile, however, buckle under these crises, stagnating or spiraling into violence. Fragile states are not like other states. They function—albeit barely— according to a different set of sociopolitical dynamics. As such, they harbor uniquely formidable obstacles to stability, development, and democracy. Because of these problems, all transitions are not created equal, and the underlying strength or fragility of societies undergoing those transitions helps determine their success and, more broadly, the prospects for political and economic development. Seth Kaplan, a Professorial Lecturer in the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) at Johns Hopkins University, is the author of Betrayed: Politics, Power, and Prosperity (Palgrave Macmillan, 2013) and Fixing Fragile States: A New Paradigm for Development (Praeger Security International, 2008). -
Hettyey András Living with a Failed State: Somalia and the States of the East African Regional Security Complex 2009-2011 (Thes
ANDRÁSSY GYULA DEUTSCHSPRACHIGE UNIVERSITÄT BUDAPEST INTERDISZIPLINÄRE DOKTORSCHULE – P OLITIKWISSENSCHAFTLICHES TEILPROGRAMM LEITERIN : P ROF . D R. E LLEN BOS Hettyey András Living with a Failed State: Somalia and the States of the East African Regional Security Complex 2009-2011 (Thesenblatt) Doktorvater: Prof. Dr. Kiss J. László Disputationskommission: …………………………. …………………………. …………………………. …………………………. …………………………. …………………………. Eingereicht: Oktober 2011 Anlage: 1. Lebenslauf Introduction Somalia is a unique place, as it provides the researcher with plenty of material to study. While it has brought terrible suffering and unspeakable sorrow to its inhabitants, the on-and-off civil war that has raged in the country since 1991 presents also a rare opportunity to the interested: here, after all, is a country which has had no functioning government, army, police force, tax collection, football league or national broadcaster for twenty years. What are the reasons for this course of history? How do the Somalis cope with the failure of their state? What can policymakers do to help fix the situation and prevent other countries from taking the same route to state failure? Questions over questions, which all warrant further research. The paper only attempts to examine a little part of the huge “Somalia picture”, namely the effects of state failure on its region. No conflict occurs in an empty space. External actors are invariably affected by any given conflict in their neighborhood, be it through refugee flows, disruption of economic networks and activity, arms trade or piracy. The external actors in the Somali conflict are, however, by no means only passive players. They try to minimize the negative effects coming out from Somalia, while at the same time actively influencing the situation inside the country according to their interests. -
Analysis of Failed States: Some Problems of Definition and Measurement
113 The Romanian Economic Journal Analysis of Failed States: Some Problems of Definition and Measurement Valentin Cojanu Alina Irina Popescu It has become a common claim that the gravest dangers to world security are no longer military threats from rival great powers, but rather transnational threats emanating from poorly governed countries. Since the end of the Cold War, the international community has become increas- ingly preoccupied with the phenomenon usually named “state failure”, because state failure causes a wide range of humanitarian, legal, and security problems. Recent examples of failed states are familiar to all of us, from the total collapse of state institutions in Somalia and the disintegration of the former Yugoslavia to the varied crises in Rwanda, Haiti, Liberia, Congo, Sierra Leone, and Af- ghanistan. But how can we measure or define if a state is a “weak” or a “failed” state? Due to the importance gained by this issue, several international organizations (World Bank, The Fund for Peace) and national institutions (U.S. National Security and the Commission on Weak States, United Kingdom’s Department for International Development) performed several surveys in this respect. This paper aims to identify and to analyze the ways to measure state failure and con- cludes with commentaries drawn on a contrasting perspective of three most re- nowned attempts (e.g. the Transformational Index of the Bertelsmann Founda- tion, the Governance Index of the World Bank, and the Failed States Index of the Foreign Policy Council). Year X, no. 25 bis November 2007 114 The Romanian Economic Journal Keywords: failed states, security, development JEL Classification: F52, O19 1. -
Somalia Fragile State Analysis: Policy Options for the Government of Canada
SOMALIA FRAGILE STATE ANALYSIS: POLICY OPTIONS FOR THE GOVERNMENT OF CANADA Zeinab Ali Samantha Nicholl Zach Salzmann January 2017 Table of Contents I) Overview ................................................................................................................................................. 2 II) Methodology ............................................................................................................................................ 2 III) Authority- Legitimacy- Capacity (ALC) ....................................................................................................... 3 IV) Timeline of Fragility .................................................................................................................................. 3 V) Key Stakeholders ...................................................................................................................................... 4 VI) Fragility Risk Assessment (6-12 months) ..................................................................................................... 5 VII) Theoretical Approach: ALC...................................................................................................................... 11 VIII) Scenarios ................................................................................................................................................ 12 IX) Policy Options ........................................................................................................................................ 12 X) Conclusion -
An Analysis of the 'Failed States Index' by Partial Order Methodology
An Analysis of the ‘Failed States Index’ by Partial Order Methodology Lars Carlsen Awareness Center, Linkøpingvej 35, Trekroner, DK-4000 Roskilde, Denmark [email protected]; and Department of Chemical Engineering, Kazakh-British Technical University, Тоlе Bi str. 59, Almaty 050000, Kazakhstan Rainer Brüggemann Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries, Department Ecohydrology, Müggelseedamm 310, D-12587 Berlin, Germany Abstract Often objects are to be ranked. However, there is no measurable quantity available to express the ranking aim and to quantify it. The consequence is that indicators are selected, serving as proxies for the ranking aim. Although this set of indicators is of great importance for its own right, the most commonly used practice to obtain a ranking is an aggregation method. Any aggregation, however suffers from the effect of compensation, because the aggregation technique is in the broadest sense an averaging method. Here an alternative is suggested which avoids this averaging and which is derived from simple elements of the theory of partially ordered sets (posets). The central concept in partial order is the ‘concept of comparison’ and the most general outcome is a web of relations between objects according to their indicator values, respecting the ranking aim. As an example the ‘Failed State Index’ (FSI), annually prepared by the Fund of Peace is selected. The FSI is based on twelve individual contextual different indicators, subsequently transformed into a single composite indicator, by simple addition of the single indicator values. Such an operation leaves space for compensation effects, where one or more indicators level out the effect of others. -
Failed States and a Crazy Idea
Failed States, Vicious Cycles, and a Proposal Raghuram G. Rajan Abstract Rajan examines the problems of failed states, including the repeated return to power of former warlords, which he argues causes institutions to become weaker and people to get poorer. He notes that economic power through property holdings or human capital gives people the means to hold their leaders accountable. In the absence of such distributed power, dictators reign. Rajan argues that in failed states, economic growth leading to empowered citizenry is more likely if a neutral party presides. He proposes a unique solution to allow the electorate to choose a foreigner, who would govern for a fixed term. Candidates could be proposed by the UN or retired leaders from other countries; they would campaign on a platform to build the basic foundations of government and create a sustainable distribution of power. Rajan emphasizes that this is not a return to the colonial model—the external candidate (like all the others) would be on a ballot and the electorate would choose whether he or she was their best chance to escape fragility. Working Paper 243 March 2011 www.cgdev.org Failed States, Vicious Cycles, and a Proposal Raghuram G. Rajan Raghuram Rajan is the Eric J. Gleacher Distinguished Service Professor of Finance at the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business. CGD is grateful to its funders and board of directors for support of this work. Raghuram G. Rajan. 2011. “Failed States, Vicious Cycles, and a Proposal.” CGD Working Paper 243. Washington, D.C.: Center for Global Development. http://www.cgdev.org/content/publications/detail/1424879 Center for Global Development The Center for Global Development is an independent, nonprofit policy 1800 Massachusetts Ave., NW research organization dedicated to reducing global poverty and inequality Washington, DC 20036 and to making globalization work for the poor.