Planning Institute of Australia. Queensl and dDiii Division.
Concepts Bank: Imagggining Uto pia
Presented by: Peter Ellyard PfPreferre dFd Futures I nsti tute Foundation 2050
11 November 2010 The Six ways we shape the future are through: • Leadership : being a purposeful futurefuture--maker.maker. • Management : being a resilient future-taker. • Planning : Applying the different forms of planning (including land use, urban, community, transport, social, financial, industrial and economic planning). • Design: Utilizing design based professions including engineering, architecture, all forms of design (such as industrial, systems, fashion and graphic design). • Innovation: developing innovations (ways and wares) to do old and current things better and new things fi rst . • Learning : increasing our knowledge and biliti d h i i d t d Planners
• should recognize the importance of , and be prepared to utilize, the other future shaping capabilities-and therefore yygypou should strive to grow your capabilities as designers ,managers ,leaders , innovators and learners as well . • could look more deeply at what is involved in each of these for planning and integrate them into your work and life . Each of these has its own subset of skills and capabilities • Planners should also think more about what is the core generic purpose of planning . • To me the generic purpose in one sentence of what planners do is : to create sustainable prosperity in the communities, nations and organizations whose future Public policy can shape the future more effectively if all of these six processes are utilized synergi sti call y t o realize sustainable prosperity - through the articulation of shared aspirations and goals, and their realization through collaborative investment and strategic action. However • Because there is not enough thought and effort given to devising and articulating shared aspirations and goals, all too often the various forms of future shaping activities collectively produce antagonism (2+2=3) rather than synergism ( 2+2=5). • As our 21st century society becomes more and more interdependent, keeping these activities as separate processes each focusing on different objectives, increasingly produces more and more antagonism and less and less synergism. Sometimes it can even become a zero sum game. • Because this increasing level of interdependence of 21st centuryyy society is not sufficientl ygy recognized, the tools we use to shape the future are increasingly failing be as effective as they could be. Put simply
• There is not enough vision. • Creating and realizing a shared vision is the best way to bring all these future shaping processes together so we have synergistic rather than antagonistic outcomes, but • Where vision vanishes the people perish (Proverbs 29 .18) . • Vision is not the same as prophecy. • So we need to discuss the changing roles of management -which is about making and responding to prophecies, and leadership -which is about articulating and realizing visions. However
• Communities , nations, and orggpyanizations which follow this pathway are also more likely to be 21st century successful • As well all the six future shaping activities, including planning, should also consider actinggg over over longer time horizons. • How far would it be most fruitful to look ahead? A global conversation about the year 2050 has commenced • We ar e con cern ed about wh at n eeds to be accom pli sh ed if we are to create a climate safe world by the year 2050 • This is two gggenerations hence and it is worth celebrating that we are having this conversation at all for humanity has not been good at conducting conversations about whthat we we sh ould accompli lihsh over 2 generati ons • So the question then is : if we are to create a society which is prosperous , sustainable, harmonious and just by the year 2050 what would be on the list of outcomes to achieve if we are to accomplish this ? • Answering this question should be a primary focus of those who pppylan the future. This could be the primary conversation of planning in the year 2010 • It is the question I try to answer in my book Designing Successful 21st century leadership, management , planning, design, innovation and learning will entail : Getting to the future first – through being a purposeful future -maker and a resilient future-taker and through the creation and early adoption of 21st century sunrise industries, jobs and innovations. Creating prosperity in its four forms: economic, ecological, social and cultural - and thereby create 21st century sustainable prosperity Promoting both intragenerational and intergenerational equity (social inclusion) - avoiding or eliminating what Nelson Mandela calls ‘islands of prosperity in seas of poverty’ Embodying the values and practicing the ethics of Planetism, the emerging global paradigm of the 21st For people life and career path planning is most likely to be successful if one: • Is an effective manager and leader-of-self, including being a resilient future-taker and a pppurposeful future-maker • Shapes one’s life and career path though clarifying one’s destiny (through insight), by consciously choosing key employment and life destinations (through foresight) and by examining one’s derivation (through hindsight). • Embodies the values of Planetism, the emerging global paradigm which requires that we give first priority to planet over nation and tribe , and which will shape 21 st century markets, ethics and jobs • Can initiate, nurture and amicably terminate interdependent relationships. • Is a lifelong, learner -driven, just-in-time and collaborative learner. • Commits to continuous innovation through doing both old Most of all Planners need to think and act intergenerationally
What is a one line job description of a parent? Answer. One who works for 20 years to create a successful adult: one who has the knowledge and skills to thrive in the world they will inherit when they reach adulth ood i n one generati on and b e i n mid career/lif e i n two generations. Formal education is a partner with parents in the creation of successful 21st century adults. Therefore leadership, management, planning , design, innovation and learning should be seeking to know what visions,,g strategies and cap abilities are req uired for success in emerging 21st century society in one and two generations time. Both intergenerational and intergenerational equity would be enhanced if we thought and acted as parents in all aspects of our work. • Imagine if all involved in planning oppgperated utilizing their parent roles, working patiently to ensure that all your clients are given the same opportunity as you give your own children. • We work with them in the same way utilizing the control of the manager, and the facilitation or the leader in both us and them If we are to increase our capacity to thrive in two generations time we also need to look again at what we mean by wealth and prosperity Wealth Is a combination of the physical (resources) which must be conserved and the metaphysical (knowledge) which can only grow. (Ralph Buckminster-Fuller) In Australia there is too much dependence on the physical component of wealth generation and not enough conscious development of the metaphysical component. For a more prospero u s and sociall y inclu siv e Australia, and Planet Earth for that matter, we need to rethink prosperity and create what I call The metaphysical component of wealth
The metaphysical component of wealth Is based on what w e h av e l earn ed in th e di sci plin es of humanities, natural sciences, social sciences and technologies These can be integrated across disciplines into new combined domains of knowledge . For example TildtMditTropical, desert, Mediterranean k nowl ldedge Management knowledge Behavioural knowledge The metaphysical component of wealth cont:
To turn this knowledge into wealth we must be both creative and enterprising, so we can turn inventions -good ideas- into innovations – tradeable products and services. What I call Ways and Wares. In my work I place major emphasis on imagining and innovating new ways and wares for emerging markets To prosper in 2030 planners need to be better innovators and understand innovation better We will need to innovate many new Ways and Waaesres betwee n 20 10 a n d 2030 . Ways : innovations (social innovations) in what we do in order to achieve an objective. Changes to behaviours, actions, strategies and cultures. Wares : innovations (physical innovations) in what we use. For example new designs, products, services and technologies. Most of the innovations that will be selling in global marke ts the year 2030 an d beyon d have ye t to be invented. An example of Ways and Wares
Water conservation way shorteninggy your shower from 6 to 3 minutes WtWater conservati on ware a new low volume shower head Imagine for example, some 21st century innovations such as living within solar income ways and wares and conflict resolution ways and wares The second pair of innovations
The second pair of innovations besides Ways and Wares are Capacities and Capabilities. CitiCapacities : additiona l an d new resources (eg finance and technology) we need: Capabilities : additional understanding knowledge skills and expertise we need create : The education system is the major way we create the new skills and capabilities we To be effective in creating future sustainable pppyrosperity We should become effective leaders-of- self, and effective future-makers. We should teach them understand the critical qualities of and differences between leadership and management of self and other -and between future- making and future-taking. We should strive to become resilient future-takers and purposeful future- makers As future-shapers we must regularly visit the futurist embodied in each of us. This futurist in us is: Part Prophet - What will be the future? the trend analyst and responding to trends? the way of th e Manager ihf?in each of us?
Part Visionary – What should/could be the future? the imaginer of and the dreamer about the future the way of the Leader in each of us
“Some people see things as they are and ask why, I see things as they could be and ask why not!” When we prepare f or th e f ut ure
We should be both manager and leader at different times. Therefore sometimes we should be a future-taker and at other times be a future-maker. We should always be conscious of whthhether we are prepari ng f or th thfte future as a manager or as a leader. Not Enough Leadership
Success in the 21st century will go to those who get t o th e f ut ure fi rst . To get to the future first we must become better leaders of both self and others. Yet Australia is at ppgresent an over managed and under led country. Much of Australia lacks visionary leadership. Australia tends to promote managers into positions where leaders are needed. Most of you will see yourselves planners and didesigners , b btut you sh hldlould also see yoursel ves as managers and leaders, and innovators and lll The M anager i s
A change-taker A future-taker A path-taker
Imagine a resilient future- taker The Leader is
AhA change-maker A future-maker A path-maker
Imagine a purposeful future- maker Managers ‘V’ Leaders
Manager Leader Responds to change: reactive Creates & shapes change: proactive Future-taker: path-taker: change- Future-maker: path-maker: change- taker maker CtiCautious a btikbout risk CflbtikCareful about risk Does the thing right Does the right thing Guided by fate Guided by destiny Controls actions and events Facilitates actions and events Works in the organisation Works on the organisation Prophet: informed & motivated by Visionary: informed & motivated by understanding & predicting trends, imagining the future & the future self, and asking why? and asking why not? Probable-futurist: asks what will the Preferred-futurist: asks what future be like? should/could the future be like? Problem-centred strategist Mission-directed strategist Angeles Arrien
• In her book The Four Fold Way defined the leader as a combination of visionaryy, , warrior ,teacher and healer. • Imagine the planner in you as leader- as visionary , warrior , teacher and healer. Successful Planning and designing of the future also requires that you take the manager and leader in you to work as well as the parent in you . • If you plan as manager you will emphasize the rational (neck up) component of the future-taker in you . • If you plan as a leader you will bring a totally different world within you into planning. This involves engaging with the h eart and utilizi ng emoti onal i nt elli gence ( b oth intrapersonal and interpersonal). People only accept change or change themselves when their own emotional intelligence is triggered . • The key twin emotions which trigger a commitment to change are hope/fear and love /hate. Leadership works by mobilizing these. • How many of you take your heart to work as well as your head. Heart is the neck down component of the future- kithi The 6 Cs of the heart of the planner as LdLeader: What the leader in us is:
1. Confident : having self belief but without hubris (Masculine, Animus, Yang) 2. Courageous: going where others dare not, overcoming self interested opposition (Masculine, Animus, Yang) 3. Committed: doing what must be done, being assertive notit aggressive ()(Masculine, Animus, Yang) 4. Considerate: listening and responding to the opinions and views of others (Feminine, Anima, Yin) 5. Courteous: showing respect in conversation (Feminine, Anima, Yin) 6. Compassionate: responding with empathy to victims/disadvantaged (Feminine, Anima, Yin) The planner as leader : the 6 Vs of the Leader’s actions . What the leader in each of us does. Vision What will be/should be our destination , our probable future/preferred future? Values What values/ethics - both good and bad, currently guide our behaviour? Virtues Wha t va lues /e thics sh ould we consci ousl y promot e i n our future behaviour ? VtVenturers Who will be and how do we empower our Champions (internal supporters of the leader) and our Allies (external supporters of the leader)? The planner as leader :the 6 Cs of the Leader’s Hear t What the leader does continued : Voyygages Strategic actions: obstacles, improvements, initiatives, heritage and baggage. Vehicles TflltifthiiTo ensure a successful completion of the mission, what additional resources and skills are needed?: capacities an d capa bilities What new social innovations , including new actions behaviours and ethics should we practice ?: Ways What new ppyhysical innovations, including new products, services and technologies, should we innovate and introduce ?: Wares Learning in the 21st Century
What
This is discussed fully in Designing 2050
Also, here are some thoughts on the future of teaching. The planner as learner and the promoter of learning
Continuous learning is at the centre of professional development . I have said a lot about what planners should learn : • To learn to become better be leaders, managers, designers and innovators as well a growing their skills as planners. • To beco me a res ili en t f utur e-tak er an d pur posefu l future-maker, to develop the 6Cs and 6Vs in themselves, and as well as utilize the 5Ds and the 5Ps of the future in their work (to be introduced shortly). • BtbBut besid es whthat we lhlearn we can change how we learn. We can create an appropriate 21st century leading culture and recognize that all our learning What about Learning in the 21st Century?
We need to create a learning culture appropriate for the 21 st century, which ensures that all assume responsibility for their own vocational learning and personal development throughout their whole lives. This proposed learning culture has 8 elements and each makes use of 21st century teaching, learning and technological advances . Each of these should be realised in detail through the i nnovati on and mark eti ng of WdWWays and Wares for each component. Learning Culture 1
Lifelong learning. Continuously utilising up to 10% of one’s time to prepare for success on one’s future life and work, and for future organisational success. Learner driven learning. Learning initiated and managed b y th e l earner, not th e t each er/ ment or, through the utilisation of learner driven learning thlitechnologies. Just in time learning. Providing the opportunity to learn through curiosity and when the need for knowledge is greatest, including from remote sources, at home & in formal learning /work environments. Learning Culture 2
Transformative learning. Designing learning for, and assessing the success of learning by the transformation of students, because the transformation of people rather than the acquisition of knowledge is the major purpose of education. Collaborative learning. Designing learning environments/processes to ensure learning is as effective in groups as for individuals. Contextual learning . Providing a context to maximise learning by locating learning in real life and virtual real life environments which make learning more effective. Li l Ci li i h IiImagine
Creating and marketing new Ways and Wares to facilitate each of these aspects of the 21st centltury learni ng cult ure. What changes to learning and teachinggp are needed to implement it? The planner as visionary . What kind of vision?
• Planning and vision are intertwined • However what kind of vision? • Vision leads to hopp,e ,hop e leads to inspiration , inspiration leads to commitment . • How many of your plans actually inspire?What might constitute an iiil?inspiring plan ? The 5 Ps of the Future 1
1. Plausible future : What alternative scenarios which are foreseeable? What could conceivably be our future prospects? What alternative scenarios for the future can we imagine? Alternative scenario planning ignores the fact that we are not helpless, and can actually shape the future and that have aspirations within us about where we want to go. 2. Probable future : the vision of the manager within us. Where are current trends taking us? What will our future be if we continue on with business as usual ,if we stay on our current pathway, and don’t seek alternative destinations ? 3. Prospective future : the probable future when fate intervenes. What is the prognosis now that circumstances have The 5 Ps of the Future 2
4. Preferred future : The vision of the leader within us. What do I aspire to or what could I realize? What is my/our dream? If you don’t have a dream , how you gonna have a dream come true ? (Oscar Hammerstein 111) 5. Possible future : If we cannot realize all of our Preferred future dream, how much of it can we achieve? Wha t des tina tion i s possibl e, gi ven we h ave li mit ati ons t o resources and knowledge, because the preferred future is not realistically attainable for the time being and/or because fate has intervened ? Capabilities we should learn for 21st century success
We should be: Resilient future -takers (manager-of-self/probable futurists). Able to understand and seek to build career/life paths based on : our destiny (through insight); being enterprising and purposeful future-makers so we can realise our aspired for destinations ((gthrough foresight); and value and learning from our derivation : ones experience (through hindsight). Committed life –long, learner driven, just in time l A more sustainably prosperous and socially inclusive Australia would result if : We parents of 2010 encourage all Australians, including those who were disadvantaged and disabled, to create life and career paths for themselves, just as we encouraged our own children to dthdo the same. Weeca can en couagetcourage th em touto un detaedertake destiny, destination and derivation, directions and director ’s dialogues. We can encourage them to become The five Dialogues Destiny, Destination & Derivation dialogues
This could be part of every person’s personal and career development pathdfihway, and part of strategies to transf fidormation and restructure organizations, communities and nations. The first three dialogues are: 1.Destiny dialogue (Insight ) Destiny = aptitude + passion The secret to a successful life is to understand what is one’s destinyy(y) to do and do it (Henry Ford) 2.Destination dialogue (Foresight ) Vision :Envisioninggp preferred future/p ossible future destinations. 3.Derivation dialogue (Hindsight) Heritage: What ppyjyriceless elements in my journey until now should treasure, nurture and use further in the future? Baggage: What baggage from the past is still with us that we must change, modify or keep? The leader-of-self can use insight To understand what is one’s special gifts: understanding one’s destiny. Destiny = aptitude + passion (what one loves doing + what one is good at) To list what one is good and bad at doing, and what one loves and loathes doing: including conducting dialogues with others Imagine
Prisoners doing destiny dialogues as theyyp pre pare for a p ost p rison career All retirees, people contemplating a career change and people facing retrenchment doing a destiny dialogue dialogue All people facing new circumstances where old pathways have closed off doing destiny dialogues How many other similar categories of DtiDestiny Following one ’s destiny defines one ’s work, doing what gives meaning to one’s lif e. Success goes to those who can turn one’s work into one’s employment. This applies to individuals, organizations, nations, communities and regions. This is important because the majority of the job categories & products & services which will exist in 2030 do not And foresight to choose an aspirational destination Know what the emerging opportunities are, which would best fit one’s destiny and work, thereby creating employment success. Have the strategic skills to plan and build one’s career/life path. And hindsight to understand one’s derivation: one’s journey until now, including: The heritage : pppriceless aspects of one’s past which should be kept and nurtured, to ensure that changing one ’s career and life path doesn’t involve throwing out babies with bathwater; and The baggage : elements in one’s life which if held on to and not jettisoned, prevents one becoming an effective transformer-of-self. Imagine Education systems which include: • Destiny dialogues (insight), destination dialogues (foresight) and derivation dialogues (hindsight) to assist in the developppment of life and career paths . These could be used by counselors and students at points of entry and reentry into education, and for career path and profildlfessional development tli planning. • Educational records of all people –an educational equivalent equivalent to a medical record , so that the learning/ case history record travels with students throughout their lives/careers and ensures that learning is customized for all learners. • The total elimination of the last vestiges of the traditional one-size-fits-all educational model derived from Fordist/Taylorist mass production/ manufacturing. Two additional Dialogues 4. Directions dialogue: Planning dialogue relating to the mission before commencing it: this can either involve constructing/changing a personal life/career path or remaking/transforming organizations or communities. 5. Director’s dialogue : Operational command dialogue lead by the leader that is undertaken during the mission: identif yi ng and enacti ng ch anges t o st rat egi c pl ans & actions that must be undertaken to unsure the successful completion of the mission . • Both of these can utilize the checklist of the 6Vs: Vision (plausible, p robable, p rosp ective, p referred and p ossible futures), Values (assessing positive and negative values), Virtues (values to be consciously promoted during the mission), Voyages (obstacles, improvements, initiatives, heritage and baggage), Venturers (champions and allies) and Vehicles (capacities and capabilities ways and EtEnterpri iising P eopl e
Here is a definition of an enterprising person: such people would be fantastic future- makers.
Here is also a list of the capabilities needed to be an enterprising person: IiImagine liWlearning Ways and dW Wares which engendered these capabilities in people. An Enterprising Individual
Has a positive, flexible and adaptable disposition tow ar ds ch an ge, seein g i t as n orm al an d as an opportunity, rather than a problem. Has a security born of self confidence and is at ease when dealing with insecurity, risks, difficulty and the unknown. Has the capacity to initiate creative ideas, develop them and see them through into action , in a determined manner. Is abl e, even anxi ous, t o t ak e responsibilit y and i s an effective communicator, negotiator, influencer, ldi(C li B ll) Enterprise Skills 1
1. Assessing strengths and weaknesses 2. Making decisions 3. Working co-operatively in teams and groups 4. Planni ng ti me and energy 5. Carrying out agreed responsibilities 6. Negotiating 7. Dealing with power and authority 8. Solving problems Mo dified Aft er D avid T urner Imagine enterprise skills Ways and Wares Enterprise Skills 2
9. Resolving conflict 10.Planning and managing projects 11.Coping with stress and tension 12.Creating one’s own health and wellbeing 13.Evaluating performance 14.Communicating both verbally and non-verbally 15.Developing strategic visions/action plans for self and others 16.Intervening strategically and systematically to shape the future Modified After David Turner Imagine enterprise skills ways and wares Are young Australians mature enough? To assume responsibility for their own education and personal and career development To become responsible members of community and society, and mature emppyloyees in the work p lace. To make the best possible use of their education If the answer is no, we need to deal with this immaturity. SiliSocial immat titurity
Social immaturity is a source of many of our major social problems including : Community violence, binge drinking, unsafe sex Intercultural and inter-religious intolerance Druggg,g taking, dangerous driving, train surfing and other forms of high risk behaviour Self harm and suicide in youth Many boys are running around in men's’ bodies and relatively fewer girls are living in women’ s bodies. Our whole society is not as mature as it could or should be Therefore
We need to go back to the future and reintroduce a 21st century version of initiation, which i s th e t raditi onal process which all cultures have used to effectively and efficiently transform children into responsible adults Reinventing Initiation for the 21st Century: Creating a full time preparation for Adulthood Year
The middle years of secondary school are not working well; the young at puberty lose interest in the traditional educational fare. What th ey want i s access to th e secrets and mysteri es of adulthood, as has been the case over millennia, where the traditional process of initiation was used, to purposefully transform children into responsible adults. What is needed is the reinvention of a real initiation process for the 21st century. This can be done througgpgh a holistic program of initiation in (say) Year 9. where we abolish the current curriculum of year 9 and turn it it into a preparation for successful IiImagine
Initiation Ways and Wares and teaching programs for successful adulthood in TAFE, as well as schools. For students who are already adult, this program will need to be re-branded into a ‘successful lives and careers program’. Without such a program, many vocational education programs will at least partially fail, because many students will not assume sufficient responsibility for becoming effective makers of their own lives and careers, or be responsible An initiation program
An initiat i on p rog ra m a lready ope rat ing in Sout h Australian Independent Schools called The Rite Journey, deals with issues such as: Personal biography, gender identity and construction Feelings and beliefs, relationships and sexuality Anger, bullying, depression and violence Risk taking (including drugs), stillness, meditation and relaxation. Communication, mentoring and Our Place in the Modern World. It involves students progressing through 7 myth inspired std‘dti’itl/itthdftages and ‘graduation’ rituals/ceremonies at the end of each stage. It could also involve community service team sports and Initiation also
• Transfers the responsibility for raising the young from the parents to the grandparent’s generation- the elders • Parents struggle do transform themselves from a relationship based on dependent young people to one based on independence of the young- let alone giving the young the change for the young to grow their capacity to develop their capabilities to initiate nurture and amicably end interdependent relationships , the key relationship of the 21st century. Successful Adulthood
Here is my list of the capabilities required to be a successful adult in 21st century society.
HilHere is also a proposal ltblihthhl to abolish the whole present curriculum in Year 9 and to introduce an initiation year. Most teachers will bell you that currently Year 9 is pretty much a wasted year.
There could al so b e merit i n i ndi genous communiti es reinventing their own initiation for 21st century purposes, so that they can both affirm their culture and become successful 21st century adults. What would be in your list? Successful Adulthood 1
Initiation Programs could include programs for students to : 1.nurture their own self esteem; 2.respp,gpect others, including parents and elders; 3.initiate, nurture and maintain successful relationships; 4.develop healthy and sustainable lifestyles; 5.become enterprising self actualising individuals; a Successful Adulthood 2 Initiation Programs could include programs for students to: 7. become lif el ong, l earner-didriven l earners; 8. create career paths which bring economic and social security; 9. understand that individual rights should be balanced by reciprocal responsibilities and service to others and the community; 10. respect and know how to nurture the environment and other species; and 11. respect and tolerate other cultures and religions. Understanding the jobs and industries of 2030 and bdhkidfkhldbeyond: what kind of work should we prepari ng our young for ? Can we predict what new products and services and job categories will be present in 2030and beyond, and those present in 2010 , which will disappear? Yes, if we know how values will change between 2010 and 2030. In planning for the future, we can predict : what products and services will be in demand; what new industries need to be established to ensure future prosperity; what new ethics will emerge; and what new skill sets and capabilities people will need, if they are to be successful in the future. Wh t f ll i h d thi The fall of the Berlin Wall led to
The co llapse of command economi es (where economies are shaped by government). The global dominance of the market economy (where customer choices shape economies). With this global dominance of market economies, it is now possible to predict what people will want to buy and sell in How values shape markets
Values determine what pppeople value and find valuable. People will want more of what they value and find to be valuable. What they want more of will determine what they seek in markets. What i s sought i n mark et s will sh ape emergi ng innovations, products, services and thlitechnologies. The main innovations are Capacities and And values are being changed
By the spread of prosperity through globalisation, tribalisation and technological interconnectedness, and the power of mass education. These trends are lifting hundreds of millions out oftdf poverty and are creati tithing the massive growth thf of a global educated, middle class. There are now 500 million educated, middle class people in India and China alone. By 2030 there will be at least one billion educated middle class people living in tropical The world is currently being transformed into a single planetary society
We are alreadyyy on our way to the creation of a planetary society; we are perhaps half way there. Our old arrangements of being separated into many different tribal cultures which are often at war with one another is disappearing. In its place is a single planetary society, which will be fully developed by the year 2050 . This emerging society is becoming more int egrat ed whil st regardi ng cult ural and reli gi ous difference, as precious as well. This is the product of three
1. Globalisation : increasingdrivers interdependence and interconnectedness such as through trade and investment ,an increasing awareness of our shared fate and vulnerability. We are increasingly recognising the oneness of humanityygp and we are ceding independence as we appreciate the synergies which come from increasing interdependence into trading blocks and regional communities and through increasing global governance. 2. Tribalisation : old empires breaking up to form many smaller t rib al st at es, wh ere we i ncreasi ngl y val ue and celebrate cultural difference. We are simultaneously breaking old political imperial arrangements and joining new political interdependent arrangements. 3. Technological interconnectivity : the Internet, global communications, mass electronic media) which is enabling us to collaborate more and become even more These forces are collectively weakening the individual nation state; strengthening the corporation; and strengthening communities, both within nations, and of nations. Creating a massive growth of the educated middle class and uplifting hundreds of millions out of poverty. China plus India alone now have 500 million in the educated middle class. The Planetary Wicked (Zimbabwe, North Korea) We are now so interdependent that we can punish the Planetary Wicked by : the trade ban; the customer boycott often driven by the internet; the freezing of bank accounts; the strike on capital; and the need to go to war is actually declining. These changes are creating
The birth of a planetary wide Paradigm called Planetism. Planeti sm i s b ased on ed ucat ed middle class values . Planetism is shappging markets, products, services and ethics in the 21 st century. In 1624 John Donne, the first high priest of Social Inclusion and the Wld’fitPltitWorld’s first Planetist, wrot e:
“No man is an Island entire of itself. Everyone is part of the continent,,p part of the main, If a clod be washed away by the sea, Europe is the less, as much as if a ppyromontory were As much if a manor of thy friend’s or of thine own were Anyy, man’s death diminishes me, because I am involved in mankind And therefore never send to know for whom the bell tolls, it tolls for thee. Globalisation, Tribalisation and Technological Change and Inter - connectedness is causing 1. The d ecli ne of empi res wh ere one t rib e dominated and ruled many. E.g. Soviet Union (Ri)Y(Russian), Yugos li(Sbi)Idlavia (Serbian), Indonesi a (Javanese), and China (Han Chinese). 2. The birth of the Tribal State - some already independent . (e.g. Lithuania, Slovakia, Montenegro, Kosovo) Others seeking independence (e.g. Chechnya, Scotland, Catalonia, Aceh). 3. The movement of tribal states into Multi-national Unions (e.g. Romania into the EU). 4. The birth of international tribal diasporas. Tribalisation and Tribal diasporas
Tribal diasporas are ubiquitous (e.g. Algerians in Paris, Pakistanis in Dubai, Greeks in Melbourne). The ch all enge i s t o i nt egrat e th ese peopl e i nt o mainstream society, whilst encouraging them to celeb rat e th ei r cult ural h erit age and recogni si ng their right to do so. Poor integration, intercultural and inter-religious hostility and limited economic and social opportunities, could become the seeds of tribally based organised crime and terrorism. The Cowboy The Spaceship Culture / Culture / Planetism Modernism (1960) (2020) / Priority to Priority to Nation Planet IdiidliIndividualism CitiiCommunitarianism Independence Interdependence Autocracy Democracy Humanity against nature Humanity part of nature Developppment, production, Development, production, consumption, lifestyles consumption, lifestyles Unsustainable Sustainable Patriarchy Gender Equality Intercultural & inter-religious Intercultural & inter-religious Intolerance/Hostility Tolerance/Harmony Conflict Resolution through CflitRltithhConflict Resolution through Confrontation/Combat Cooperation/Negotiation
Safekeeping through Defence Safekeeping through Security Planetist Values Planetist values are the values we need to create sustainable prosperity and a sustainable society on Spaceship Earth. Planetist values are the values of the educated middle class which shape global public opinion, markets and ethics in the 21st century. Planetist values will determine what is ppylanetary correct and ethical behaviour by individuals, companies, nations and international organisations in the 21st The values of Planetism The values of Planetism – the values of the educated middle class- will determine what people will want to buy in 2030 and beyond. They, amongst other things, will want to have Ways and Wares which realise: sustainable, development, production, consumption and lifestyles in a warmer planet; democracy; life long learning opportunities; intercultural and inter-religious harmony; equality and opportunity for women; and security. More of these educated, middle class people
Live in tropical, subtropical and tropical environments in Africa, Asia and South America. Educated middle class people mostly believe in the same things irrespective of whthlihere they live - such as small f amili es, and a priority for education, democracy and sustainable. The Three Relationships • The 19th century was the century of dependence - most people lived in colilonies • The 20th centuryyy was the century of independence - the majority of people now live in independent countries . • The 21st century will be the century of itinterd epend ence, whiddhere independence entities voluntarily give up some of their independence because of the benefit and synergy that comes from union. The three relationships
Dependence – children Independence – adolescence ItInterd epend ence – adlthddulthood In the interdependent 21 st century, we all need to know how to initiate, nurture andflldiddd successfully end interdependent relationships. What are the ways and wares we need to The interdependent relationship is characterising the 21st century Examples are: the personal adult relationship; The workplace; the supply chain; the l oyalt y sch eme; the political union such as the EU or WTO; and our relationship with the environment. Aggregated purchasing utilizing supply chain interdependence and loyalty will grow in emerging 21st century society. Before we initiate an interdependent relationship The three questions we need to be able to answer if we are to place our trust in another in an interdependent relationship are : Is the other honest? Is the other reliable? Is the other competent? All our young must become experts in initiating, managing and amicably ending interdependent relationship Imagine honesty, reliability and competence assessment ways and wares IiImagine
Developing trust-on-line and being able to assess whether the other is honest, reliable and competent.
What interdependence trust-on-line Ways and Wares can you imagine? Planners
• Must recognize that the relationship with your clients should be an interdependent one which involves making mutual obligations to creating a shared future based on shared vision and mutual respect and trust. • Most of your workplaces will already be interdependent ones. What does the perfect interdependent workplace look like? • Are you relationships with suppliers and customers equally so? • How doest it differ from traditional work places based did independ dtent and dd depend dtent empl oyees. Imagine Finding ways to nurture interdependent relationships by negotiating mutual obligations through the ceding of some independence, so that we can mutually benefit from the synergy that follows the development of a mutually beneficial, interdependent relationship. ItInterd epend ent rel ltiationshi ps can al so b e marred by the opposite of synergism ( 2+2=5) - namely antitagonism ( 2+2= 3) Developing interdependence negotiation Ways and Wares, which assist us to identify what forms of mutual coercion can we mutually agree upon, and so we all can win together and not have winners and losers. With interdependence we Planning with data, information, knowledge and wisdom Data + purpose = Information
Information + culture = Knowledge .
The same Information embedded in different cultures becomes different knowledge. Describe your own working culture. Knowledge + experience + reflection = Wisdom What proportion each of information ,knowledge and id i l d i k? The future of IT
We are drowning in data and information We are starving for knowledge and wisdom Therefore we need not only DT and IT WlWe also need dKTdWT KT and WT The future of IT involves the creation of KT and WT for Planetist markets. Imagine planning KT and WT When one of your best people resigns ThdtThe data and dif informati on st ays b bhidithehind in the technology. The knowledge and wisdom walks out the door.
Name : a quality, facility or opportunity which could be added that would enable knowledge and wisdom to be retained; and Identify the baggage which should be eliminated. Identify some ways and wares to achieve When
When yyqou ask a question of knowledge, you get an answer back. When you ask a question of wisdom, you get another question b ack . Imagine knowledge and wisdom on-line. Imagine the world in the year 2050 has become a sustainable society
AtiblitiA sustainable society is a soci ithihhety which has achieved sustainable prosperity. Is a society which is capable of living indefinitely on Spaceship Earth and which lives by planetist values (as distinct from nationalist v alu es) Gives first alleggpiance to planet over tribe or nation. What ways and wares are needed to realise such an outcome? - sustainable prosperity d What is sustainable prosperity?
It combines pppy(rosperity (wealth) of four different kinds: Economic prosperity Ecological prosperity Social prosperity Cultural prosperity It does not involve the increasing prosperity in one form, whilst increasing poverty in another. Economic Prosperity / Poverty
Involves generating wealth from 21st century industries , enterprises, products and services. 70% of the industries, products and services of the yyyear 2030 have yet to be invented. Many innovations (ways and wares) will be needed to generate economic prosperihilility, while simultaneousl y protecting, nurturing and where Ecological Prosperity / Poverty
Involves the development of ways and wares to: live within perpetual solar income turn waste into food avoid and or repair collateral damage to the environment. protect and nurture biodiversity and natural resources
In the 21st century we do not increase economic prosperity by : destroying the environment creating ecological poverty BUT BY nurturing ecological prosperity (eg biodiversity, Social Prosperity / Poverty
Soci al pr osperi ty inv olv es : the enhancement of social and community cohesion and conviviality Access to economic security through work and opportunity Life long learning Adequate Universal Shelter Access to Healing from illness The opportunity to realise wellness It also seeks to ensure that individual rights do not encroach on community rights Social poverty is the stage when many of these are absent and communities have lost cohesiveness and hbdftil Cultural Prosperity / Poverty Involves the nurturing and celebration of cultural heritage and diversity and the realisation of inter-cultural and inter- religious tolerance, respect and harmony . Involves global arrangements which mitigates against actions which create cul tura l po ve rty As the world integrates into a single global society, cu ltu ral differences are ever more treasured and celebrated (eg. Here is a reggpional future preferred future scenario. • If we are to create 21 st century successful life and career paths we can just can’t work at the individual level. • We must also implement communitarian visions as well to create holistic regional 21st century relevant industrial futures which are rich in 21st century jobs. • Here is an example of what we could do in Northern Australia to create sustainable prosperity there. • . Imagine Northern Australia in 2030
is the world centre of excellence in design and itiftiblliiithtiinnovation, for sustainable living in the tropics, subtropics and tropical savannah. It can customise products and services which were originally created for the temperate zone, so that they work in the tropics without doing net collateral damage to tropical ecosystems, communities, cultures and to the planet. It has developed industrial clusters to create many new tropical living ways and wares for export to the tropical world Sustainable prosperity in the tropics Australia/Northern Australia could become the world leader inventing how to become sustainably prosperous in tropical, subtropical and tropical savannah; with zero net collateral damage to the global environment. There are very few places in the developed world in 2010 in the tropics. Northern Australia is one of them, but if it wants to get to the future first and do this, it first must ditch the remnants of the last frontier culture it still retains and become the first frontier. Imagine Northern Australia in 2030 As a world excellence in tropical knowledge and the customisation of all products and services for living sustainably in the tropics. Creating for example, Ways and Wares to: design and build tropical housing and communities; deliver health and wellness customised for tropical living; produce and export food sustainably in tropical environments ; recover,,p transport and p rocess minerals; and create tourism in the tropics with zero net collateral damage, minimise damage and maximise Education for Regional Sustainable PitProsperity
Even in an era of national curriculum our education system can and should be tailored to fulfilling regional destinies. This is how sustainable prosperity could be created in one region of Australia: IhI have b een worki ng i n N orth ern A ust rali a. The destiny of northern Australia in the 21st century could look like this. Can yygou imagine a likewise future for other reg ions based on a local destiny and a knowledge base like tropical knowledge , Mediterranean knowledge or Sustainable prosperity in the tropics; Providing Ways and Wares for:
Tropical illness and wellness. Sustainable tropical agriculture with zero collateral damage to tropical environments. AhittArchitecture, Pl Plianning & &Di Design f or sust tiblainable tropical living. Living with, designing and building infrastructure for extreme weather and natural events including, cyclones, tsunamis, earthquakes). Developppment of tropical knowledg e to inform the innovation for future Ways and Wares for successful living in the tropics. Imagine
Northern Australia in 2030 has created hundreds of TilWTropical Ways and dW Wares. These Ways and Wares are for doing old things better (e.g making 2010 industries 21st century relevant) and doing new things first – getting to the future first. Most of these innovations which are present in 2030, had yet to be i nvent ed i n 2010 . Imagine all the Ways and Wares we needed to create Implications for education – imagine that since 2010 There has been co-operation between 4 universities – Charles Darwin University, James Cook University , CQU and Edith Cowan (Broome) and TAFE to design and operate cutting edge R&D programs and skills formation ppgrograms. Schools a have been part of this program since 2010. Imagine the tropical customised elements which have been introduced into school education in northern Australia, for example in trade training centres in secondary sch ool s and vi rt ual experi ence f aciliti es i n schools where the world of work is fully simulated. Schools implementing a detailed vision and combined strategy to create a generation of resilient future- takers/purposeful future-makers, who are mature, Imagine that in 2030
Skilled people from Australia/Northern Australia are working throughout the tropical, subtropical and tropical savannah zones of the world. Northern Australia are now experts of living successfully in the tropics and is exporting Ways and Wares that assists people to achieve sustainable prosperity in the tropics. By doing this we have also created sustainable prosperity in Northern Australia because we have grown the metaphysical component of wealth generation through the creation of world leadership in tropical knowledge Tropical Knowledge 2030
The coll ecti on, d evel opment and di ssemi nati on of tropical knowledge which is a synthesis of scitifiltlientific, cultural and soci ilkldildial knowledge, including indigenous and tropical knowledge . Tropical knowledge from other cultures in the tropics and its embedding into new products and services, is at the centre of northern Australia’s journey through the 21st century. There are many industrial clusters throughout northern Australia in 2030, which are dedicated to this task. These turn tropical knowledge into wealth through the innovation of tropical Connections
pp@[email protected] www.designing2050.com www.peterellyard.com www.preferredfutures.org www.saxton.com.au www.debii.curtin.edu.au