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SM Entertainment (041510 KQ) China Growth Story to Begin in 2014 SM Entertainment (041510 KQ) China growth story to begin in 2014 Entertainment 3Q and 4Q earnings to be in line; Strong momentum anticipated in 4Q Despite a sluggish 1H, we expect SM Entertainment’s 2013 revenue to grow 16.5% YoY Company Update to W281.5bn, and operating profit to remain broadly flat YoY at W60.7bn under consolidated K-IFRS. November 14, 2013 The 1H earnings weakness was attributable to: 1) sharp yen depreciation, 2) overseas concert royalty income being geared towards 2H (only 500,000 concertgoers were (Maintain) Buy reflected in 1H out of 2.32mn concertgoers in 2013F), and 3) a significant fall in album royalties from Japan (direct exports of Korean language albums, which had been a major earnings contributor in 2012). Target Price (12M, W) 60,000 We see strong earnings momentum in 4Q, as the company should recognize revenue Share Price (11/13/13, W) 38,400 from several directly operated concerts (which are more profitable), including the Korea- China-Japan SM Town tour. We estimate non-consolidated operating profit at W12bn in Expected Return 56% 3Q and over W18bn in 4Q. 2014 earnings catalysts: China, Exo, and additional revenue streams OP (13F, Wbn) 61 China should become a major market for SM in 2014. The entertainment firm is looking Consensus OP (13F, Wbn) 60 into joint ventures with local Chinese firms to establish a broad presence in the country across broadcasting, commercials, TV dramas, and films. The company is purportedly in EPS Growth (13F, %) 27.3 discussions with major Chinese entertainment and media firms over potential alliances. Market EPS Growth (13F, %) 15.0 P/E (13F, x) 15.1 The boy band Exo is scheduled to hold its first concert (as a headline act) in December Market P/E (13F, x) 11.0 and has been added to SM Entertainment’s 2014 concert lineup. Exo’s album is on track KOSDAQ 505.60 to break the 1mn sales mark, which would make it the first domestic album to do so in 13 years. The boy group, which includes four Chinese members, is gaining widespread Market Cap (Wbn) 793 popularity in China and Southeast Asia. Shares Outstanding (mn) 21 Free Float (%) 78.3 The company’s subsidiary SM C&C (048550 KQ) should display sharp earnings growth in Foreign Ownership (%) 10.3 2014, driven by: 1) earnings contributions from Woollim Entertainment (which Beta (12M) 1.09 represents the popular group Infinite) beginning in October 2013, and 2) secondary revenue streams, including broadcast productions, fan meet-and-greet tours and 52-Week Low (W) 29,100 merchandise stores. We estimate SM C&C’s 2014 revenue and operating profit at 52-Week High (W) 69,500 W111.2bn and W11.1bn, respectively. (%) 1M 6M 12M Maintain Buy and Lift TP to W60,000 Absolute 3.6 -1.9 -44.5 Relative 6.7 -2.7 -48.4 While major artists TVXQ, Super Junior, and Girls’ Generation continue to enjoy worldwide popularity, SM has expanded its lineup with the additions of Exo and Infinite. Share price On top of traditional album and concert sales, the company is introducing more profit 130 KOSDAQ 110 models, like fan package tours and merchandise stores. 90 We maintain Buy and lift our target price to W60,000 (from W46,000) after revising up 70 our 2014F earnings and changing our valuation base year and P/E target comparison. 50 We expect two straight quarters of solid earnings in 2H, which should help restore 30 11/12 3/13 7/13 11/13 investor confidence. In addition to the nine-day SM Town Week concert in December, the growing visibility of SM’s Chinese joint venture could also trigger upside to the stock. Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. FY (Dec.) 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13F 12/14F 12/15F Revenue (Wbn) 97 143 241 281 357 393 Internet/Game/Entertainment OP (Wbn) 20 26 61 61 77 90 Chang-kwean Kim OP margin (%) 20.9 17.9 25.1 21.6 21.4 22.9 +822-768-4321 NP (Wbn) 17 23 40 52 64 76 [email protected] EPS (W) 942 1,235 1,994 2,539 3,114 3,675 ROE (%) 22.9 23.1 24.7 22.0 21.8 20.8 P/E (x) 16.0 33.0 22.8 15.1 12.3 10.5 P/B (x) 3.6 7.4 5.5 3.6 2.7 2.1 Notes: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including the U.S. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT. SM Entertainment November 14, 2013 Investment points fans. This resounding success is 43x and 37x (market cap of at least W5tr). Gaining Chinese market share on the back of competitive content . Its global presence has been ld in October drew over 70,000 China’s service and entertainment markets are growing at a rapid pace <Figures center stage1-6>. inHuayi the company’s Brothers Media, a Chinese film studio and record label, is being traded on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange at respective 2013F and 2014F P/Es of H.O.T. in 1995 to Exo in 2013) W46,000 to W60,000. As the end The Beijing SM Town concert he evidence of the massive popularity ofst Korean decade, pop but culture China will (especially likely take SM artists) in China. Thanks e P/E levels are 23.0x for to the rapid spread of mobile internet, there is almost nose time year lag of valuationbetween fromthe production 2013 to 2014. of And in music content in Korea, and consumptionand inraise China. our SMtarget hasIndustries’ pricean excellent from 2014F track P/E record of 19.7x of developing (the highest level globally popular pop groups (from 2014F peer averag felt mainly in Japan over the pa g, we have changed the ba overseas growth for the next 10 years. Reduced FDI in traditional manufacturing/light We maintain our Buy call on SM industries of the year is approachin % of all FDI deriving our target price for SM, we applied Cheil among Korean entertainment and media firms). global firms and 15.8x for domestic firms. FDI (3-year average growth) Figure 1. Foreign investments in China are shifting away from manufacturing to consumption and service sectors Increased FDI in consumption-/environment-/finance-related industries (%) Mining 60 Textiles Computers Manufacturing Equipment 40 Lodging Pharmaceuticals Specialty equipment Real estate 20 ICT Electricity Chemicals Water supply (RMB) 0 Technology Wholesale/retail 8000 Transportation Finance 7000 -20 Culture 6000 5000 4000 Note: Cumulative Jan.- Aug. 2013 data 3000 Source: CEIC, KDB Daewoo Securities Research 2000 Figure 2. Earnings and share price of Huayi Brothers Media 1000 (US$bn) Revenue (L) Operating profit (L) 140 0 Share price (R) 120 100 80 2 60 40 20 0 -20 1/10 7/10 1/11 7/11 1/12 7/12 1/13 7/13 Source: Bloomberg, KDB Daewoo Securities Research KDB Daewoo Securities Research November 14, 2013 SM Entertainment Figure 3. Relationship between Korea’s per-capita GDP & growth of culture/arts & service sectors (US$) (%) 25,000 Culture/arts and service boomed as per- Real GDP per capita (L) 70 capita income increased from US$4,000 Culture/arts & service - YoY growth (R) to $10,000 60 20,000 50 15,000 40 30 10,000 20 10 5,000 0 0 -10 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 Note: Real GDP (base year of 2000) Source: World Bank, BOK, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Figure 4. Gov’t expenditure on culture/arts & service in China Figure 5. Employment in culture/arts & service in China (US$mn) (mn persons) 5 18 4 CAGR of 23.7% 17 between 2007 and 2013 CAGR of 3.1% between 2009 and 2013 3 16 2 15 1 0 14 1/07 7/07 1/08 7/08 1/09 7/09 1/10 7/10 1/11 7/11 1/12 7/12 1/13 7/13 9/05 3/06 9/06 3/07 9/07 3/08 9/08 3/09 9/09 3/10 9/10 3/11 9/11 3/12 9/12 3/13 Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Figure 6. Service industry as a % of GDP (% of GDP) 80 Great Britain France US Spain Italy Japan Germany 70 Brazil India Taiwan Turkey Poland 60 Mexico Czech Russia 50 Malaysia Korea Thailand China 40 Indonesia (US$'000) 30 0 102030405060 Source: Bloomberg, KDB Daewoo Securities Research KDB Daewoo Securities Research 3 November 14, 2013 SM Entertainment Table 1. Earnings forecasts for global media/entertainment companies (US$mn, %) Market Revenue Operating profit OP margin Net profit Net margin EPS cap. 12 13F 14F 12 13F 14F 12 13F 14F 12 13F 14F 12 13F 14F 12 13F 14F SM Entertainment 739 214 269 342 54 56 71 25.1 21.0 20.7 35 43 48 16.5 15.9 14.1 1.8 2.1 2.3 YG Entertainment 476 95 121 147 19 24 35 20.1 19.9 23.8 17 21 29 17.6 16.9 19.8 1.6 2.1 2.8 CJ CGV 962 692 901 1,076 49 67 90 7.1 7.4 8.4 48 40 65 6.9 4.4 6.1 2.3 2.0 3.1 Cheil Worldwide 2,684 2,101 2,594 3,075 112 139 169 5.3 5.3 5.5 83 104 128 4.0 4.0 4.2 0.8 1.0 1.2 CJ E&M 1,102 1,239 1,551 1,719 34 64 98 2.8 4.1 5.7 33 42 74 2.7 2.7 4.3 0.0 1.1 2.0 KT Skylife 1,184 503 584 631 58 94 103 11.6 16.2 16.3 50 82 91 9.9 14.0 14.5 1.0 1.7 1.9 Walt Disney 121,986 45,041 47,823 50,945 9,450 11,276 12,396 21.0 23.6 24.3 6,136 6,933 7,625 13.6 14.5 15.0 3.4 3.9 4.5 Time Warner 60,426 28,729 29,603 30,607 6,214 6,670 7,131 21.6 22.5 23.3 3,019 3,643 3,877 10.5 12.3 12.7 3.4 3.8 4.3 CBS 35,239 14,089 15,216 15,461 3,013 3,326 3,611 21.4 21.9 23.4 1,574 1,894 2,062 11.2 12.4 13.3 2.5 3.0 3.5 Discovery Holdings 30,041 4,487 5,553 6,207 1,861 2,075 2,415 41.5 37.4 38.9 943 1,119 1,371 21.0 20.1 22.1 2.5 3.1 4.0 Viacom 39,823 13,887 13,745 14,427 3,901 3,925 4,266 28.1 28.6 29.6 1,981 2,278 2,422 14.3 16.6 16.8 4.2 4.6 5.4 Liberty Interactive 14,037 10,054 10,261 10,738 1,200 1,175 1,306 11.9 11.4 12.2 1,530 501 617 15.2 4.9 5.7 -0.8 1.0 1.4 E.W.
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