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38th Research Students’ Conference in Probability and Statistics Conference Proceedings 3rd – 6th August 2015 Welcome from the Organisers Dear Delegate, We at the University of Leeds take great pleasure in welcoming you to the 38th Research Students’ Conference (RSC) in Probability and Statistics. The RSC is an annual conference that provides an opportunity for research students from probability and statistics to come together in a relaxed environment to discuss their research. Against this backdrop, we hope that new contacts and friendships will be forged. For many students this will be your first experience of presenting your work, and some of you will have the opportunity to chair a session. For those of you attending and not presenting, we hope that you will benefit greatly from observing others and network- ing with researchers working in a similar field. For more information on RSC 2015 see rsc2015.co.uk or join our RSC 2015 - Leeds Facebook group: https://www.facebook.com/groups/rsc15 This year’s conference features plenary speakers Professor Valerie Isham, professor of probability and statistics at University College London, and Professor Sir David Cox, hon- orary fellow of Nuffield College at the University of Oxford. We are no longer looking for potential hosts for RSC 2017, as the University of Durham have volunteered to host. Next year the conference will be held in Dublin. Lastly, we must give special thanks to all of the sponsors, whose support is vital for the continuation of the RSC project and to the previous hosts at Lancaster and Nottingham who have helped us to organise this year’s event. The RSC 2015 Committee Timetable of Events Monday 3rd August 12:30 - 15:00 Registration & Arrival Refreshments (Parkinson Court) 15:00 - 16.55 Welcome & Plenary Sessions (Michael Sadler Building) 15:00 - 15.15 Welcome: Colleen Nooney (Committee Chair) 15:15 - 16:00 Plenary Talk I: Professor Sir David Cox 16:00 - 16:45 Plenary Talk II: Professor Valerie Isham 16:45 - 16:55 Instructions for Chairs 19:00 - ATASS BBQ (The Faversham) Tuesday 4th August 08:00 - 09:15 Breakfast - full delegates only (The Refectory) 09:20 - 10:40 Session 1 (Michael Sadler Building) 10:40 - 11:20 Coffee Break (Parkinson Court) 11:20 - 12:40 Session 2 (Michael Sadler Building) 12:40 - 14:00 Lunch (Parkinson Court) 14:00 - 15:20 Session 3 (Michael Sadler Building) 15:20 - 17:00 Poster Session and Refreshments (Parkinson Court) 17:45 - 19:00 Dinner (The Refectory) 19:00 - Cinema/ Town Hall Tour/ Pub Crawl Town Hall Tour group will leave promptly from outside The Refectory at 19:00 Wednesday 5th August 08:00 - 09:15 Breakfast - full delegates only (The Refectory) 09:40 - 11:00 Session 4 (Michael Sadler Building) 11:00 - 11:40 Coffee Break (Parkinson Court) 11:40 - 12:40 Session 5 (Michael Sadler Building) 12:40 - 14:00 Lunch (Parkinson Court) 14:00 - 15:30 Sponsors’ Talks (Michael Sadler Building) 15:30 - 17:00 Sponsors’ Drinks Reception (Parkinson Court) 19:00 - Conference Dinner at The Refectory Thursday 6th August 08:00 - 09:00 Breakfast - full delegates only (The Refectory) 09:00 - 10:00 Check Out of Accommodation (Storm Jameson Court) Contents 1 Map of University Campus 1 2 Help, Information and Telephone Numbers 3 3 Facilities and Transport 4 4 The RSC 2015 Committee 5 5 The City and University 6 6 Accommodation, Meals and Organised Entertainment 8 7 Instructions 10 7.1 For Chairs . 10 7.2 For Speakers . 10 7.3 For Displaying a Poster . 11 8 Prizes 11 9 Plenary Session 12 9.1 Professor Valerie Isham (UCL) . 12 9.2 Professor Sir David Cox (University of Oxford) . 12 10 Talks Schedule 14 10.1 Tuesday 4th August . 14 10.2 Wednesday 5th August . 17 11 Sponsors’ Talks: 14:00 - 15:30 20 11.1 Wednesday 5th August . 20 12 Talk Abstracts by Session 21 12.1 Tuesday 4th August . 21 12.1.1 Session 1: 09:20-10:40 . 21 12.1.2 Session 2: 11:20-12:40 . 30 12.1.3 Session 3: 14:00-15:20 . 39 12.2 Wednesday 5th July . 45 12.2.1 Session 4: 09:40-11:00 . 45 12.2.2 Session 5: 11:40-12:40 . 55 12.2.3 Sponsors’ Talks - 14:00-15:30 . 60 13 Poster Abstracts by Author 63 14 Sponsors’ Advertisements 72 15 RSC History 76 16 Delegate List 77 17 Voting Slip for Best Talks and Best Poster 85 1 Map of University Campus 38th Research Students Conference in Probability and Statistics Headingley 3rd August - 6th August 2015 ST. GEORGE'S FIELD 60 4FDVSJUZ0óDF 0113 343 5494 MAIN ENTRANCE 78 29 86 City centre 4QSJOHöFME SOUTH House ENTRANCE (Permit Holders Only) Steps CLARENDONWAY City centre Key Venues Car parks University visitors’ car parks (limited access) Accommodation - Storm Jameson 86 Other university car parks Parkinson Court 60 Public multi-storey car park Michael Sadler Building 78 Refectory 29 Other useful information CityBus Stop Bus Stop Taxi Rank Pedestrian Only Area Lawns 1 Walking routes between the Train (A)/Bus (C) Stations and the Parkinson Building (B) Route A – B will take approximately 27 minutes to walk Route C – B will take approximately 32 minutes to walk 2 2 Help, Information and Telephone Numbers Accommodation: Storm Jameson Court Mount Preston Street Leeds LS2 9JP Telephone (External): 0113 343 2750 Department Address: School of Mathematics University of Leeds Leeds LS2 9JT Emergency Numbers: University Security (External): 0113 343 2222 Conference Organiser: 07792639226 (Colleen Nooney) University Event Manager: 0113 343 6104 (Ros Bates) Taxi Firms: Amber Cars: 0113 202 2117 Royal Cars: 0113 230 5000 Blueline: 0113 244 5566 City Cabs: 0113 246 9999 3 3 Facilities and Transport Shops: The university is only a 15 minute walk from the city centre, where you can find anything you might need. However, there is a Co-op in the Student Union and various cafes and bars. There are also a number of cafes, a pharmacy and a Tesco Express on Woodhouse Lane, opposite the Parkinson Building steps. Transport: Rail: The First Leeds number 1 bus travels past the main campus entrance every 10 min- utes. The service can be caught from Infirmary Street (Stand B) in City Square or Bishopgate Street (Stop Z1). Both stops are close to the rail station. Alternatively, a taxi fare to the main campus entrance should be about £5 (see page 3). It is a one mile walk (approximately 24 minutes) from the station to the Parkinson building. Air: A taxi from Leeds Bradford International airport to the main campus entrance will cost approximately £20. Arrow taxis have an office at the airport. The Yorkshire Tiger 757 bus service runs from Stand A at the airport to Leeds bus station. From there you can catch regular buses to the University campus. See below in the Bus and Coach section for more information. Bus: For timetables, routes and pricing of coach services to Leeds, please visit the National Express and Megabus websites. Both of these coach operators stop at Leeds bus station. There are regular buses that run from the bus station to the main campus entrance, in particular numbers 6, 28 or 97. For further information please visit the Metro bus information website. There is also a taxi rank located at the bus station. A taxi will take about 10 minutes and cost approximately £5 (see page 3). Car: The main entrance to the campus for cars is on Woodhouse Lane, or Cavendish Lane on some Sat-Nav systems. Parking on campus is limited, and we are also commit- ted to reducing our carbon emissions, so we encourage walking and cycling to the University where possible.Parking for disabled “blue badge” holders is available on campus for visitors. If you are a blue badge holder you are advised to enter the cam- pus via the main barrier on Woodhouse Lane to show your badge. You can then be directed to the nearest available disabled parking bay to the area you are visiting. Blue badge holders do not need to pay to park on campus. 4 4 The RSC 2015 Committee If you have any questions during your time in Leeds please feel free to ask any member of the RSC 2015 Committee. We will be wearing white T-shirts with the RSC 2015 logo on the front. Colleen Nooney: Committee Chair Keith Newman: Website Manager Nebahat Bozkus: Entertainment and Conference Dinner Wafa Al Mohri: Conference Dinner Aziz Aljuaid: Merchandise Khaled Alqahtani: Merchandise Christopher Pope: On the day Helper Kapil Patel: On the day Helper Anna Gavriel: On the day Helper Zoe Baker: On the day Helper 5 5 The City and University The City of Leeds In 2011 the estimated population of Leeds made it the third largest city in the UK. The history of Leeds can be traced back to the 5th century when the Kingdom of Elmet was covered by the forest of Loidis, the origin of the name Leeds. In the 17th and 18th cen- turies Leeds became a major centre for the production and trading of wool. Then, during the Industrial Revolution, Leeds developed a major industrial centre; wool was the dom- inant industry but flax, engineering, iron foundries, printing and other industries were important. Today Leeds is ranked as a gamma world city by the Globalisation and World Cities Research Network; and is considered the cultural, financial and commercial heart of the West Yorkshire Urban Area. Leeds has plenty to offer from stylish shopping and decadent dining, to contemporary arts and vibrant nightlife. The City Centre boasts breathtaking architecture such as the Leeds Town Hall and the Victoria Quarter as well as a range of attractions such as enter- tainment, sport, theatre and heritage alongside world-class museums and galleries such as the Royal Armouries museum, Leeds Art Gallery and Leeds City Museum.
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