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RIL Research Report of company- Reliance Industries Ltd. Sector: Energy Industry: Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels Current Price: 1126.55 BUY Target Price: 1368 Reliance Industries Ltd. manufactures petrochemicals, synthetic fibers, fiber intermediates, textiles, blended yarn and polyester staple fiber. The Company also owns a petroleum refinery cum petrochemicals complex in Jamnagar, India that produces a wide range of products such as gasoline, superior kerosene oil and liquefied petroleum gas. Website http://www.ril.com/ Revenue(M) 39,16,770 Mn Address Maker Chambers - IV Current Price 1,126.55 Nariman Point Mumbai, 52 Week High 1,329.00 400 021 India 52 Week Low 836 No of Employees 24,167 Mkt Cap(M) 71,36,301 Mn One Year Daily Price and Volume Volume Adj Close 52 Week Beta 1.379981 1400 30 1M Return -13.2% 1300 25 6M Return 22.5% 1200 20 52 Week Return 33.4% 1100 15 YTD Return 22.7% Price Next Earnings 17-Oct-18 1000 10 Announcement 900 5 Volume in Millions Prior 27-Jul-18 Announcement 800 0 1% 1% Revenue Segmentation 2% Refining 53.16% 16% Petrochemicals 26.52% Organized Retail 15.96% 53% 27% Others - Crude Petroleum 2.12% **NOTE: Data taken from RIL’s Annual Report and Bloomberg, Every Price Data unless stated is in INR. Analysis done by Vikas Kumar Singh. Email: [email protected] Credit Ratings Rating Outlook S&P BBB+ STABLE Moody's Baa2 STABLE Fitch BBB- STABLE Key Insights • Company has a pending deal to acquire Radisys Corp for INR 5.6B, announced Jun 30, 2018. • Company has a pending deal to acquire Alok Industries Ltd for INR 50.5B, announced Jun 22, 2018 • Next earnings announcement is scheduled for Oct 17. The company beat EPS estimates 7 times in the past 10 fiscal periods. • India refined petroleum products production volume rose 5.1% YoY in August, for a total of 13 consecutive monthly increases, India Central Statistical Organisation data show. Company sales are 53.2% from petroleum refining (BICS level 4). Recent Developments M&A Target: Hathway Cable & Datacom Ltd | INR 35.0B 3-Oct-18 Proposed (Sought: 100%) Investment Acquirer: Multiple acquirers / Target: NetraDyne Inc| INR 1.5B 27-Sep-18 Announced Investment Target: NetraDyne Inc | INR 580.6M 26-Sep-18 Announced M&A Acquirer: Brookfield Asset Management Inc / Target: East West 17-Sep-18 Proposed Pipeline Ltd | INR 140.0B (Sought: 100%) Key Executives NAME TITLE AGE TENURE START Mukesh Dhirubhai Ambani Chairman/Managing Director 61 - - Pawan Kumar Kapil Whole-Time Director 64 8 05-Jan-10 Alok Agarwal Chief Financial Officer - - - Srikanth Joint Chief Financial - - - Venkatachari Officer - - - K Sethuraman Chief Compliance Ofcr/Secy - - - Nikhil R Meswani Executive Director 52 30 07-Jan-88 Hital R Meswani Executive Director 50 23 08-Jan-95 P M S Prasad Executive Director 66 9 08-Jan-09 **NOTE: Data taken from RIL’s Annual Report and Bloomberg, Every Price Data unless stated is in INR. Analysis done by Vikas Kumar Singh. Email: [email protected] Ownership Top 5 Countries Top 15 by % of Shares Outstanding Held India 78.59% Devarshi Commercials 11.21% United States 16.66% Srichakra Commercial 10.87% Luxembourg 1.42% Karuna Commercials 8.02% Ireland 0.61% Life Insurance Corp 7.86% Japan 0.54% Tattvam Enterprises 6.81% Capital Group Company 5.31% Reliance Industries 4.06% Top 5 Institutional Types Petroleum Trust 3.80% Other 38.95% Blackrock 1.82% Investment Advisor 25.12% Vanguard Group 1.76% Corporation 11.84% Fmr LLC 1.73% Government 10.85% Reliance Chemicals 0.98% Holding Company 5.34% Dimensional Fund Adv 0.86% Sbi Funds Management 0.85% Hdfc Asset Management 0.72% Analysis: RIL Industry Research JIO Effect Reliance Industries Ltd. is set to dominate the Indian telecom and organized-retail segments through aggressive expansion capitalizing on its strong energy business. Over $7 billion in annual cash flow from RIL's energy business provides a war chest to win market share from retail and telecom incumbents. Analysts believe industry consolidation, rising ARPU and data consumption should lift intrinsic value of its telecom unit Jio to match RIL's market cap in five years. Integration of its retail and telecom offerings will create a compelling offline- online platform to take the fight to Amazon and Walmart. Subscriber Fight to Extend After Consolidation The fight for subscribers among India mobile carriers remains intense, even though the India's Mobile Subscriber number of private operators is set to be cut Market Share to three from nine due to industry 10% consolidation. Reliance Jio will probably Vodafone Idea need to add at least s100 million users to its 20% 38% Limited Bharti Airtel 200 million customer base, before achieving its goal to lead the revenue tables. This Jio would translate into a share of nearly 30% of 32% BSNL the nation's 1.1 billion mobile phone users. Jio took less than six months to grab its first 100 million users, then about 15 months to add another 100 million. **NOTE: Data taken from RIL’s Annual Report and Bloomberg, Every Price Data unless stated is in INR. Analysis done by Vikas Kumar Singh. Email: [email protected] Cash Flows Help RIL Diversify Reliance Industries' refinery and petrochemical facilities, which are among world's most- efficient, low-cost plants, churn out strong sustainable cash flows, allowing it to fund aggressive expansion in retail and telecoms. RIL's refining and petrochemical earnings should continue to improve in fiscal 2019 with the ramp-up of newly commissioned projects. Profit at its organized retail business is rising sharply as operating leverage kicks in. Retail business earnings have trebled in the past year and have the potential to rise further based on the average margin of global peers. A similar trend should follow in its telecom business with a rising subscriber base. Reliance Jio aims to surpass Bharti Airtel's 300 million subscribers to become India's No. 1 telco, before shifting away from a low-price strategy and an IPO. Petrochemical business is RIL's biggest earnings contributor at 44%, with refining close behind at 38%. Reliance Jio and retail businesses contribute 10% and 7%. Valuation Calculation of Cost of Equity 10-year Govt Bond Benchmark- SENSEX, Calculated Risk Free Rate = on Weekly Returns for 3 years 7.98% Cost of Equity= Beta = 1.29 13.19% Expected Market Return =12.01% Equity Risk Premium =5.21% Country Premium =4.03% Risk Free Rate =7.98% Calculation of Cost of Debt Historical Average Tax rate (1- Effective Tax ST Debt =34% of Rate) = 73% total Debt Short term Weighted Cost =2.33% Note Rate =6.85% Cost of Debt Total Pre-Tax Cost =7.26% of Debt= 7.21% LT Debt =66% of total Long term Debt Weighted Cost Debt Adjustment =4.88% Factor=1.38 Bond Rate =7.4% **NOTE: Data taken from RIL’s Annual Report and Bloomberg, Every Price Data unless stated is in INR. Analysis done by Vikas Kumar Singh. Email: [email protected] Calculation of WACC Capital Distribution 15% 8% Current Market Cap Short Term Debt Long Term Debt 77% WACC calculation Cost of Equity =13.19% Weighted Cost of Equity =10.09% Weight of Equity =77% WACC =11.80% Cost of Debt =7.26% Weighted Cost of Debt =1.70% Weight of Debt =23% Historical WACC 15% 13% 11% 9% 7% 5% 3% FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 WACC Cost of Equity Cost of Debt **NOTE: Data taken from RIL’s Annual Report and Bloomberg, Every Price Data unless stated is in INR. Analysis done by Vikas Kumar Singh. Email: [email protected] DCF Highlights In Millions of INR Mar 17 A Mar 18 A Mar 19 E Mar 20 E Mar 21 E Mar 22 E Mar 23 E Mar 24 E Trend Revenue 30,53,820 39,16,770 46,21,789 53,15,057 60,06,014 66,06,616 71,35,145 75,63,254 % YoY Growth 10% 28% 18% 15% 13% 10% 8% 6% EBITDA 4,63,070 6,43,150 7,46,314 8,71,188 10,45,754 11,00,727 11,88,785 12,00,648 % Margin 15% 16% 16% 16% 17% 17% 17% 16% Free Cash Flow (72,391) (59,797) 2,96,865 5,21,824 8,23,264 8,10,210 9,04,669 10,18,473 % Margin -2% -2% 6% 10% 14% 12% 13% 13% Recommendation: BUY Target Price: ₹1368, 21% upside potential. (Average of DCF and EBITDA Model) Average of Analyst Recommendation in BUY side: ₹1360 Perpetuity Growth Method EBITDA Multiple Method Current Price (INR) 1126.55 Current Price (INR) 1126.55 DCF Estimated Value per Share (INR) 1335.09 DCF Estimated Value per Share (INR) 1401.09 DCF Estimated Upside 19% DCF Estimated Upside 24% Perpetuity Growth Terminal EBITDA Multiple 1335.09 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 1401.09 7.6x 9.1x 10.6x 12.1x 13.6x 10.8% 1386.34 1464.42 1553.20 1655.03 1773.02 10.8% 1126.24 1296.29 1466.34 1636.40 1806.45 11.3% 1292.46 1360.44 1437.14 1524.35 1624.38 11.3% 1100.71 1267.01 1433.30 1599.60 1765.89 11.8% 1208.70 1268.31 1335.09 1410.44 1496.11 11.8% 1075.82 1238.46 1401.09 1563.73 1726.37 12.3% 1133.52 1186.11 1244.67 1310.28 1384.31 12.3% 1051.55 1210.62 1369.70 1528.77 1687.85 12.8% 1065.67 1112.32 1163.99 1221.53 1286.00 12.8% 1027.88 1183.48 1339.09 1494.69 1650.30 0.19 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 0.24 7.6x 9.1x 10.6x 12.1x 13.6x 10.8% 23% 30% 38% 47% 57% 10.8% 0% 15% 30% 45% 60% Discount rate WACC Discount 11.3% 15% 21% 28% 35% 44% rate WACC Discount 11.3% -2% 12% 27% 42% 57% 11.8% 7% 13% 19% 25% 33% 11.8% -5% 10% 24% 39% 53% 12.3% 1% 5% 10% 16% 23% 12.3% -7% 7% 22% 36% 50% 12.8% -5% -1% 3% 8% 14% 12.8% -9% 5% 19% 33% 46% In Millions of INR Mar 17 A Mar 18 A Mar 19 E Mar 20 E Mar 21 E Mar 22 E Mar 23 E Mar 24 E Revenue (Estimate Comparable) 30,53,820 39,16,770 46,21,789 53,15,057 60,06,014 66,06,616 71,35,145 75,63,254
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